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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly the polls and the betting move away from Donald Tr

SystemSystem Posts: 12,220
edited September 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly the polls and the betting move away from Donald Trump

How the betting has moved sharply away from. Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/dfYCZZdeJX

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Comments

  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354
    1st
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,572
    The Realclearpolitics polls still seem to show him in front by a fair margin (over Carson)?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2015
    FPT:

    I have no idea where that stat that that less than half of current Lab supporters would prefer Corbyn to be PM over Osborne came from.

    The dataset shows Corbyn leading with Lab voters by 61% to Osborne's 7%. Among the whole electorate, Osborne is ahead 33-24, with 43% saying "not sure". (From memory, I think that is a smaller lead than Cameron ever had over Miliband). Jez is slightly ahead among "potential" Lab swing voters.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ii9ytqtjhm/NStables_150917_W5.pdf
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If Donald Trump gets the nomination, there'll be hell toupee.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,825
    antifrank said:

    If Donald Trump gets the nomination, there'll be hell toupee.

    The Republicans will deserve a wigging.

    I'll get my coat...
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    antifrank said:

    If Donald Trump gets the nomination, there'll be hell toupee.

    It's not a wig he invited a woman, who was in no way primed, onto stage to prove it.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    I have no idea where that stat that that less than half of current Lab supporters would prefer Corbyn to be PM over Osborne came from.

    The dataset shows Corbyn leading with Lab voters by 61% to Osborne's 7%. Among the whole electorate, Osborne is ahead 33-24, with 43% saying "not sure". (From memory, I think that is a smaller lead than Cameron ever had over Miliband). Jez is slightly ahead among "potential" Lab swing voters.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ii9ytqtjhm/NStables_150917_W5.pdf

    My guess is that the figure referred to how Liz Kendall supporters split.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    antifrank said:

    If Donald Trump gets the nomination, there'll be hell toupee.

    Excellent! :D:D:D
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,326
    antifrank said:

    If Donald Trump gets the nomination, there'll be hell toupee.

    They'll be calling him the combback kid when he bounces back during the primaries.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    saddened said:

    antifrank said:

    If Donald Trump gets the nomination, there'll be hell toupee.

    It's not a wig he invited a woman, who was in no way primed, onto stage to prove it.
    Surely not!

    #wig_gate
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,326
    I saw a video of Carly Fiorina speaking in 2006 when she joked about (untrue) jibes about her travelling with a personal hairdresser that, "They don't say that about Donald Trump and his hair is way more complicated than mine." I bet she never imagined that 9 years later she'd be running against him for the Presidency.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    I cant see any dates on the chart, however, this may in part, be a consequence Scott Walker, dropping out, reminding everybody that as some of the more mainstream contenders drop out, there supporters are more likely to switch to other Mainstream contenders?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,259
    The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    SandyRentool said:

    The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.

    O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    What's notable about the Fox News report is that Fox is now attacking Trump again.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    antifrank said:

    If Donald Trump gets the nomination, there'll be hell toupee.

    The Republicans will deserve a wigging.

    I'll get my coat...
    I'm sure it will all get straightened out in the end.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JEO said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.

    O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.
    I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.

    Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPeterH/status/647088017656647680
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,326
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Charles said:

    JEO said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.

    O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.
    I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.

    Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
    It's possible that if Biden opens up the race, people take interest in the debates, and O'Malley gets more attention.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Go Fiorina! Huge pay day for me if it happens.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

    Their MP's do, with room to spare for a bitter and twisted donor.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,669
    Could someone enlighten me - re Sepp Blatter he is alleged to have made a 'disloyal payment' to Michel Platini - what is a disloyal payment as I have never heard of it - sorry to go off topic
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

    The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:

    https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,825
    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

    What about Ed Miliband's taxi? :wink:
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,914
    antifrank said:

    If Donald Trump gets the nomination, there'll be hell toupee.

    very good :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JEO said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.

    O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.
    I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning and is on his national finance committee

    Of course @HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    foxinsoxuk said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

    The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:

    https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176
    As the Lib Dems believe that the EU is superior to the UK you could therefore argue that it is the MEPs who really count and not the MPs. The number of Lib Dem MEPs would barely register on a bar chart when compared to the number of UKIP MEPs.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,728
    foxinsoxuk said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

    The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:

    https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176
    Those two look like they've spent far too long under the sunbed.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,100
    FPT I have just done the Roman Emperor quiz. It says I am Theodora.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,326
    Casino_Royale said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

    The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:

    https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176
    Those two look like they've spent far too long under the sunbed.
    The smoked Kipper look is generally obtained on the Costa del Sol.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MP_SE said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

    The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:

    https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176
    As the Lib Dems believe that the EU is superior to the UK you could therefore argue that it is the MEPs who really count and not the MPs. The number of Lib Dem MEPs would barely register on a bar chart when compared to the number of UKIP MEPs.
    Though the UKIP MEPs want to make themselves redundant!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    williamglenn said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

    The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:

    https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176
    Those two look like they've spent far too long under the sunbed.
    The smoked Kipper look is generally obtained on the Costa del Sol.
    Stupid to have the conference in Doncaster and not in London.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2015
    MikeK said:

    williamglenn said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

    The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:

    https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176
    Those two look like they've spent far too long under the sunbed.
    The smoked Kipper look is generally obtained on the Costa del Sol.
    Stupid to have the conference in Doncaster and not in London.
    Perhaps wise to keep some of the speakers as far away from the Smoke as possible:

    Take a look at @Daily_Express's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Daily_Express/status/647468748404883456?s=09

    Whoever said "there is no such thing as bad publicity" certainly seems to have the ear of the UKIP conference. It should all be very entertaining on the news tonight, and Carswell speech tommorow will be one to watch too.
  • Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    Latest CNN poll has Trump at 26, up by ten, in New Hampshire. Are bettors moving on to the next shiny new bauble before the voters?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MP_SE said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

    The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:

    https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176
    As the Lib Dems believe that the EU is superior to the UK you could therefore argue that it is the MEPs who really count and not the MPs. The number of Lib Dem MEPs would barely register on a bar chart when compared to the number of UKIP MEPs.
    Though the UKIP MEPs want to make themselves redundant!
    Unlike the Lib Dems in the House of Lords.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,914
    Hard to know what's going on with the GOP race. Trump is certainly not going forwards, and Bush isn't showing his stuff. Beyond that it's mostly noise.

    I've backed Fiorina. To me she seems credible and sensible. I also think that the Republicans would like to get one over on the Democrats by running the first female candidate.

    All the polling is a bit sketchy currently. The candidates that aren't really in the race will just drop out along the way, and it'll be clearer in a few weeks. Personally I expect Carson to drop out also - I think he'll work out he's not suited to be the big cheese.

    Trump will of course run as far as he can. It'll be best for everyone if that involves a collision with a brick wall.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,100
    MikeK said:

    williamglenn said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

    The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:

    https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176
    Those two look like they've spent far too long under the sunbed.
    The smoked Kipper look is generally obtained on the Costa del Sol.
    Stupid to have the conference in Doncaster and not in London.
    Did I just flag you as Off Topic? So sorry, my laptop sees clicks where none are intended.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Omnium said:

    Hard to know what's going on with the GOP race. Trump is certainly not going forwards, and Bush isn't showing his stuff. Beyond that it's mostly noise.

    I've backed Fiorina. To me she seems credible and sensible. I also think that the Republicans would like to get one over on the Democrats by running the first female candidate.

    All the polling is a bit sketchy currently. The candidates that aren't really in the race will just drop out along the way, and it'll be clearer in a few weeks. Personally I expect Carson to drop out also - I think he'll work out he's not suited to be the big cheese.

    Trump will of course run as far as he can. It'll be best for everyone if that involves a collision with a brick wall.

    I think Rubio, personally, purely because he's the one candidate who doesn't seem to have huge weaknesses. Jeb Bush is managing to make Mitt Romney look like a dynamic and inspirational candidate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    Really? The polls may have dipped a little but Trump still leads in virtually all. Last night he was ahead in new polls in North Carolina, NH and Florida. The effective ousting of Boehner today as Speaker also suggests Republicans are in an anti-establishment mood which helps Trump

    Elon University North Carolina Republican Primary
    Trump – 21.5%
    Carson – 20.9%
    Fiorina – 9.9%
    Rubio – 7.4%
    Bush – 7.0%
    Cruz – 6.2%
    Huckabee – 4.1%
    Paul – 2.3%
    Kasich – 2.1%
    Christie – 1.6%
    Santorum – 1.0%
    Graham – 0.2%
    Gilmore – 0.0%
    Jindal – 0.0%
    Pataki – 0.0%
    Undecided – 13.2%
    http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/default.xhtml

    CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Republican Primary
    Trump – 26%
    Fiorina – 16%
    Rubio – 9%
    Carson – 8%
    Bush – 7%
    Kasich – 7%
    Christie – 5%
    Cruz – 5%
    Paul – 3%
    Gilmore – 1%
    Graham – 1%
    Huckabee – *
    Pataki – *
    Santorum – *
    Jindal – 0%
    Undecided – 11%
    http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmurcnn-poll-trump-continues-to-lead-fiorina-now-second-in-new-hampshire/35467172

    Jacksonville University Florida Republican Primary
    Trump – 24%
    Bush – 17%
    Carson – 15%
    Rubio – 15%
    Fiorina – 7%
    Cruz – 4%
    Kasich – 2%
    Huckabee – 1%
    Paul – 1%
    Christie – *
    Graham – *
    Pataki – *
    Santorum – *
    Gilmore – 0%
    Jindal – 0%
    http://www.firstcoastnews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/09/24/ju-poll-trump-leads-fiorina-and-rubio-rise-bush-steady/72739738/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    Charles said:

    JEO said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.

    O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.
    I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.

    Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
    O'Malley is presently at exactly 1% in the RCP Democratic nomination national poll average
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html.

    He may be worth a long-shot bet, but it is a very long-shot
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,914
    Would people mark me down as irrational, strange, or just plain nuts if I said that Farage will go down in history as an important politician?

    Bad camera angles, all the flak etc, but still he's saying something that broadly makes sense. I don't know if the EU is a sensible thing. There isn't much evidence either way. The tide of Euro-involvement is very strong though. Almost everyone in the UK now knows who the most important person in Germany is. Why? They have no idea who the most important person in Wales is!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    Niall Ferguson 'England is incredibly lucky to have Cameron and Osborne'
    http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/niall-ferguson-arrogant-actually-i-m-far-too-good-at-hiding-my-humility-a2955651.html
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Omnium said:

    Would people mark me down as irrational, strange, or just plain nuts if I said that Farage will go down in history as an important politician?

    Bad camera angles, all the flak etc, but still he's saying something that broadly makes sense. I don't know if the EU is a sensible thing. There isn't much evidence either way. The tide of Euro-involvement is very strong though. Almost everyone in the UK now knows who the most important person in Germany is. Why? They have no idea who the most important person in Wales is!

    He hasn't done anything to promote Euro exit. His party has done a lot to do so, but to convince me to credit the rise of Ukip to Farage would take, perhaps, two or three academic papers.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    At the end of the day, Trump is not old money. Bush is. The establishment will make sure Bush will be their candidate.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,914
    EPG said:

    Omnium said:

    Would people mark me down as irrational, strange, or just plain nuts if I said that Farage will go down in history as an important politician?

    Bad camera angles, all the flak etc, but still he's saying something that broadly makes sense. I don't know if the EU is a sensible thing. There isn't much evidence either way. The tide of Euro-involvement is very strong though. Almost everyone in the UK now knows who the most important person in Germany is. Why? They have no idea who the most important person in Wales is!

    He hasn't done anything to promote Euro exit. His party has done a lot to do so, but to convince me to credit the rise of Ukip to Farage would take, perhaps, two or three academic papers.
    "two or three academic papers"

    My word you sell your convictions cheaply! I'm pretty sure you will always get people to throw in a used t-shirt, and half a carrot to your benefit on those terms.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,100
    HYUFD said:

    Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html

    Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeSmithson said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    I have no idea where that stat that that less than half of current Lab supporters would prefer Corbyn to be PM over Osborne came from.

    The dataset shows Corbyn leading with Lab voters by 61% to Osborne's 7%. Among the whole electorate, Osborne is ahead 33-24, with 43% saying "not sure". (From memory, I think that is a smaller lead than Cameron ever had over Miliband). Jez is slightly ahead among "potential" Lab swing voters.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ii9ytqtjhm/NStables_150917_W5.pdf

    My guess is that the figure referred to how Liz Kendall supporters split.
    Oh, I see. Tories switching to the Tories. That is news !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html

    Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?
    This is a democracy. What will your "intelligence" people do if Corbyn became PM ? Labour does not need a majority for JC to be PM.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    surbiton said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    I have no idea where that stat that that less than half of current Lab supporters would prefer Corbyn to be PM over Osborne came from.

    The dataset shows Corbyn leading with Lab voters by 61% to Osborne's 7%. Among the whole electorate, Osborne is ahead 33-24, with 43% saying "not sure". (From memory, I think that is a smaller lead than Cameron ever had over Miliband). Jez is slightly ahead among "potential" Lab swing voters.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ii9ytqtjhm/NStables_150917_W5.pdf

    My guess is that the figure referred to how Liz Kendall supporters split.
    Oh, I see. Tories switching to the Tories. That is news !
    According to that polling, Kendall supporters are more pro-Osborne than the whole general public(!).
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2015
    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    I have no idea where that stat that that less than half of current Lab supporters would prefer Corbyn to be PM over Osborne came from.

    The dataset shows Corbyn leading with Lab voters by 61% to Osborne's 7%. Among the whole electorate, Osborne is ahead 33-24, with 43% saying "not sure". (From memory, I think that is a smaller lead than Cameron ever had over Miliband). Jez is slightly ahead among "potential" Lab swing voters.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ii9ytqtjhm/NStables_150917_W5.pdf

    My guess is that the figure referred to how Liz Kendall supporters split.
    Oh, I see. Tories switching to the Tories. That is news !
    According to that polling, Kendall supporters are more pro-Osborne than the whole general public(!).
    What a surprise !
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited September 2015
    Just backed {Bush, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina} in the Iowa Rep caucus on Betfair's traditional bookie market at just shy of evens.

    I reckon it will be one of the four, maybe 80% chance.

    Trump is excluded Cruz is an outside possibility, but you can't back em all.

    Betfair's market has Walker still in it, should be a giveaway...)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    JEO said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.

    O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.
    I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.

    Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
    O'Malley is presently at exactly 1% in the RCP Democratic nomination national poll average
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html.

    He may be worth a long-shot bet, but it is a very long-shot
    As always, my focus is on identifying the best, not the best value. Politics isn't about money: it's about choosing the leadership of the Anglosphere.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,100
    edited September 2015
    surbiton said:

    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html

    Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?
    This is a democracy. What will your "intelligence" people do if Corbyn became PM ? Labour does not need a majority for JC to be PM.
    I don't know, it's something that I've wondered about. I suppose in the event, other countries would become unwilling to share information with us.

    Edited to add: Not intending to malign Mr Corbyn in any way. Just a hypothetical.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html

    Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?
    Simple for our spooks to send a few titbits to Jezza and see where they wind up. It may even be a good way to muddy some waters. Tip them off that Jihadi John has turned double agent, that sort of thing.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    surbiton said:

    At the end of the day, Trump is not old money. Bush is. The establishment will make sure Bush will be their candidate.

    The establishment do not always get their man, see Rockefeller v Goldwater
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,996
    Evening all :)

    An interesting week overall. I thought (though I would, wouldn't I ?) the LD Conference went pretty well. I got to hear Tim Farron's first leader's speech. Naturally it was personal and introductory and long on generalities and short on specifics - again, not surprising given we are less than five months into a sixty month electoral cycle. Now is obviously not the time for detailed policy commitments of any kind.

    I liked the emphasis on housing and the achievements of the Coalition and the Party will support the REMAIN platform - will it be Cameron and Farron on one platform and Corbyn and Farage on the other (which will be interesting) - not that I think the EU "superior to the UK" as someone downthread who doesn't know any better suggested.

    For all that's been said, the IPSOS-MORI numbers didn't look that bad for Labour in VI terms but the question is whether the 40% (Plus or minus) Conservative voting glacis is the very permafrost or whether it can be shifted in the years ahead.

    I don't know - we are still in the post-election honeymoon/doldrums (delete as appropriate).The big opinion shifting events haven't yet happened - UKIP are as usual here, there and everywhere in the polls though IPSOS-MORI had them close to the LDs in the 8-9% range.

    The refugee/migrant story has quietened in the past few days though is liable of course to flare up at any time and it remains to be seen if Russian actions in Syria will be pivotal. The recent "understanding" between Moscow and Tel Aviv seems to have given Putin the green light to intervene strongly in support of Assad though whether that will provoke an anti-Russian backlash from ISIS remains to be seen.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    edited September 2015
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    JEO said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.

    O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.
    I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.

    Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
    O'Malley is presently at exactly 1% in the RCP Democratic nomination national poll average
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html.

    He may be worth a long-shot bet, but it is a very long-shot
    As always, my focus is on identifying the best, not the best value. Politics isn't about money: it's about choosing the leadership of the Anglosphere.
    Maybe, but I think the only real alternative to Hillary is Biden, with Sanders also making a strong challenge from the left. Sanders has a big lead in New Hampshire in a CNN poll today

    Sanders 46%
    Clinton 30%
    Biden 14%
    O'Malley 5%
    Webb 2%
    https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_fall_demprim092415.pdf
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    An interesting week overall. I thought (though I would, wouldn't I ?) the LD Conference went pretty well. I got to hear Tim Farron's first leader's speech. Naturally it was personal and introductory and long on generalities and short on specifics - again, not surprising given we are less than five months into a sixty month electoral cycle. Now is obviously not the time for detailed policy commitments of any kind.

    I liked the emphasis on housing and the achievements of the Coalition and the Party will support the REMAIN platform - will it be Cameron and Farron on one platform and Corbyn and Farage on the other (which will be interesting) - not that I think the EU "superior to the UK" as someone downthread who doesn't know any better suggested.

    For all that's been said, the IPSOS-MORI numbers didn't look that bad for Labour in VI terms but the question is whether the 40% (Plus or minus) Conservative voting glacis is the very permafrost or whether it can be shifted in the years ahead.

    I don't know - we are still in the post-election honeymoon/doldrums (delete as appropriate).The big opinion shifting events haven't yet happened - UKIP are as usual here, there and everywhere in the polls though IPSOS-MORI had them close to the LDs in the 8-9% range.

    The refugee/migrant story has quietened in the past few days though is liable of course to flare up at any time and it remains to be seen if Russian actions in Syria will be pivotal. The recent "understanding" between Moscow and Tel Aviv seems to have given Putin the green light to intervene strongly in support of Assad though whether that will provoke an anti-Russian backlash from ISIS remains to be seen.

    Corbyn won't back LEAVE.

    As lukewarm as his support for REMAIN is.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,553
    foxinsoxuk said:

    williamglenn said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Oh dear! Is this the cursed conference

    Don't they all fit in the Lib Dem taxi?

    The LD have 8 times the MPs of the kippers, and had a record conference attendance. UKIP have their lowest in 5 years:

    https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176
    Yet if the UK votes for Leave, UKIP can claim to be the most successful party in recent history, even as they disappear.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html

    Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?
    He decides, they advise
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited September 2015
    surbiton said:

    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html

    Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?
    This is a democracy. What will your "intelligence" people do if Corbyn became PM ? Labour does not need a majority for JC to be PM.
    The first duty of the State is the safety and security of the people of this country.

    Any courtesy to Corbyn goes straight into the dustbin if he's a risk to that in any way.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    JEO said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.

    O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.
    I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.

    Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
    O'Malley is presently at exactly 1% in the RCP Democratic nomination national poll average
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html.

    He may be worth a long-shot bet, but it is a very long-shot
    As always, my focus is on identifying the best, not the best value. Politics isn't about money: it's about choosing the leadership of the Anglosphere.
    Maybe, but I think the only real alternative to Hillary is Biden, with Sanders also making a strong challenge from the left. Sanders has a big lead in New Hampshire in a CNN poll today

    Sanders 46%
    Clinton 30%
    Biden 14%
    O'Malley 5%
    Webb 2%
    https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_fall_demprim092415.pdf
    You can only get 1.45 on Biden or Sanders in NH - much worse than than the 3 on her getting the nomination.

    An interesting one... could Clinton come from behind?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,055
    edited September 2015
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    JEO said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The Democrats have made a mistake by not having the New Obama - i.e. A charismatic 40-something who can fire up the core vote and win over floaters.

    O'Malley is 52, southern and plays guitar, so close.
    I do hope so. A close friend of mine has been backing O'Malley since the beginning.

    Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
    O'Malley is presently at exactly 1% in the RCP Democratic nomination national poll average
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html.

    He may be worth a long-shot bet, but it is a very long-shot
    As always, my focus is on identifying the best, not the best value. Politics isn't about money: it's about choosing the leadership of the Anglosphere.
    Maybe, but I think the only real alternative to Hillary is Biden, with Sanders also making a strong challenge from the left. Sanders has a big lead in New Hampshire in a CNN poll today

    Sanders 46%
    Clinton 30%
    Biden 14%
    O'Malley 5%
    Webb 2%
    https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_fall_demprim092415.pdf
    You can only get 1.45 on Biden or Sanders in NH - much worse than than the 3 on her getting the nomination.

    An interesting one... could Clinton come from behind?
    She did in NH in 2008, but this time she is polling better in Iowa than the Granite State
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited September 2015
    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html

    Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?
    What's most interesting about that Standard interview is how Benn is saying that Labour will opt back into what ever social chapter changes Cameron renegotiates once they get back into government.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37488

    ...Hold on a minute. Boehner resigning is great news for Trump and great news for all of us who believe in liberty and freedom.

    On other matters 16280 is the key level to look out for tonight in the closing of the Dow. Closing below there opens the way to a mini panic down into the 13000's and a wonderful buying opportunity when everyone else in panicking like mad. It'll be one sling shot move to remember!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,419
    Sean_F said:


    Yet if the UK votes for Leave, UKIP can claim to be the most successful party in recent history, even as they disappear.

    A reverse SNP maneuvre.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    O/T

    ***** BETTING POST *****

    "Criminal proceedings have been opened against Sepp Blatter by the Swiss Attorney General on two issues: a TV rights deal that FIFA signed with Jack Warner's Caribbean Football Union and an alleged "disloyal payment" of two million Swiss francs made in 2011 to UEFA president Michel Platini."

    This news seems unlikely to assist Platini's quest to become the next FIFA President, in which event Prince Ali Al-Hussein's chances of securing the top job appear to be greatly improved ..... available at odds of 3/1 from BWIN or 5/2 from those nice folk at SkyBet.
    DYOR.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,419
    Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.

    Nice to see Biden shortening too.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Pulpstar said:

    Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.

    Nice to see Biden shortening too.

    Bernie has no chance to be the nominee. He has no appeal outside of white liberals.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Interesting couple of tweets:

    https://twitter.com/SuzanneEvans1/status/647391438762848256

    https://twitter.com/SuzanneEvans1/status/647386146671079424
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    JEO said:

    What's notable about the Fox News report is that Fox is now attacking Trump again.

    I wouldn't take too much notice of fox. We are moving into the age where people distrust government and believe the opposite of what they say as a matter of course. Trump, Sturgeon, the Catalan independents this weekend and Corbyn all fit that template. Down with the establishment!
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited September 2015
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    An interesting week overall. I thought (though I would, wouldn't I ?) the LD Conference went pretty well. I got to hear Tim Farron's first leader's speech. Naturally it was personal and introductory and long on generalities and short on specifics - again, not surprising given we are less than five months into a sixty month electoral cycle. Now is obviously not the time for detailed policy commitments of any kind.

    I liked the emphasis on housing and the achievements of the Coalition and the Party will support the REMAIN platform - will it be Cameron and Farron on one platform and Corbyn and Farage on the other (which will be interesting) - not that I think the EU "superior to the UK" as someone downthread who doesn't know any better suggested.

    For all that's been said, the IPSOS-MORI numbers didn't look that bad for Labour in VI terms but the question is whether the 40% (Plus or minus) Conservative voting glacis is the very permafrost or whether it can be shifted in the years ahead.

    I don't know - we are still in the post-election honeymoon/doldrums (delete as appropriate).The big opinion shifting events haven't yet happened - UKIP are as usual here, there and everywhere in the polls though IPSOS-MORI had them close to the LDs in the 8-9% range.

    The refugee/migrant story has quietened in the past few days though is liable of course to flare up at any time and it remains to be seen if Russian actions in Syria will be pivotal. The recent "understanding" between Moscow and Tel Aviv seems to have given Putin the green light to intervene strongly in support of Assad though whether that will provoke an anti-Russian backlash from ISIS remains to be seen.

    You only have to read the contents of Nick Clegg's and Tim Farron's speeches to realise that they have absolutely no faith in the UK outside of the EU. It is shameful how they constantly talk down the achievements of the UK. They would have you believe
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Yet if the UK votes for Leave, UKIP can claim to be the most successful party in recent history, even as they disappear.

    If that happy day does come, I can't help feeling it will be as much in spite of UKIP (and especially Farage) as because of it.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Pulpstar said:

    Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.

    Nice to see Biden shortening too.

    Sanders is good value IMHO as well. Biden and Hilary are seen as far too establishment. A fatal flaw in the upcoming tumult.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,419
    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.

    Nice to see Biden shortening too.

    Sanders is good value IMHO as well. Biden and Hilary are seen as far too establishment. A fatal flaw in the upcoming tumult.
    This fund http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F000003YD7 a good one to buy if the Dow goes to 13500 or so then :) ?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Pulpstar said:

    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.

    Nice to see Biden shortening too.

    Sanders is good value IMHO as well. Biden and Hilary are seen as far too establishment. A fatal flaw in the upcoming tumult.
    This fund http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F000003YD7 a good one to buy if the Dow goes to 13500 or so then :) ?
    Yep that would be good. I favour large US importers doing well given the upcoming and ongoing strength of the US dollar but a passive fund at this stage in the cycle will outperform the vast majority of active managers when market breadth is typically weak in the late stages of a rally.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    watford30 said:

    surbiton said:

    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html

    Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?
    This is a democracy. What will your "intelligence" people do if Corbyn became PM ? Labour does not need a majority for JC to be PM.
    The first duty of the State is the safety and security of the people of this country.

    Any courtesy to Corbyn goes straight into the dustbin if he's a risk to that in any way.
    Who is the "state" ? Unelected "Intelligence" officers ? Didn't half of them work for the KGB ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    At the end of the day, Trump is not old money. Bush is. The establishment will make sure Bush will be their candidate.

    The establishment do not always get their man, see Rockefeller v Goldwater
    I can't seem to recall the Johnson vs Goldwater result !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,914
    edited September 2015
    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.

    Nice to see Biden shortening too.

    Sanders is good value IMHO as well. Biden and Hilary are seen as far too establishment. A fatal flaw in the upcoming tumult.
    This fund http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F000003YD7 a good one to buy if the Dow goes to 13500 or so then :) ?
    Yep that would be good. I favour large US importers doing well given the upcoming and ongoing strength of the US dollar but a passive fund at this stage in the cycle will outperform the vast majority of active managers when market breadth is typically weak in the late stages of a rally.
    So, your specific recommendation being what exactly?

    I love the fact your crystal ball gives you certainty about the upcoming strength of the dollar too.

    You've said nothing, and badly.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,669
    surbiton said:

    watford30 said:

    surbiton said:

    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hilary Benn 'My father would have been thrilled by Jeremy Corbyn's win'. Benn also says Corbyn should have full access to intelligence briefings
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html

    Would it really be up to Mr Cameron to decide? Wouldn't he be obliged to accept the recommendation of intelligence people?
    This is a democracy. What will your "intelligence" people do if Corbyn became PM ? Labour does not need a majority for JC to be PM.
    The first duty of the State is the safety and security of the people of this country.

    Any courtesy to Corbyn goes straight into the dustbin if he's a risk to that in any way.
    Who is the "state" ? Unelected "Intelligence" officers ? Didn't half of them work for the KGB ?
    The Intelligence services are keeping us safe as best as they can at this time of great danger and they have prevented many attacks this year alone. We owe them respect - your views are just absurd
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Just seen the news clips of Farron's speech. I don't find him appealing at all. He came across as an angry student politician.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,553
    runnymede said:

    Yet if the UK votes for Leave, UKIP can claim to be the most successful party in recent history, even as they disappear.

    If that happy day does come, I can't help feeling it will be as much in spite of UKIP (and especially Farage) as because of it.

    There I beg to differ. It was UKIP that campaigned for Brexit when the idea seemed absurd; UKIP that brought the idea into the mainstream; UKIP that applied the pressure that led the Prime Minister to agree to a referendum.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Omnium said:

    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.

    Nice to see Biden shortening too.

    Sanders is good value IMHO as well. Biden and Hilary are seen as far too establishment. A fatal flaw in the upcoming tumult.
    This fund http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F000003YD7 a good one to buy if the Dow goes to 13500 or so then :) ?
    Yep that would be good. I favour large US importers doing well given the upcoming and ongoing strength of the US dollar but a passive fund at this stage in the cycle will outperform the vast majority of active managers when market breadth is typically weak in the late stages of a rally.
    So, your specific recommendation being what exactly?

    I love the fact your crystal ball gives you certainty about the upcoming strength of the dollar too.

    You've said nothing, and badly.

    I was dollar bullish when everyone was against me.....and proved right over the past year and more much to the annoyance of the dollar haters. Just sitting in USD before this great buying opportunity in US stocks presents itself. ..but not yet. USD strength and rising US indexes will make a great combo for a UK investor. How clear do you need me to be!
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    France has u-turned: now open to EU treaty change to keep Britain in.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11889378/France-signals-EU-treaty-change-to-avert-Brexit-warns-on-euro-survival.html
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,553
    JEO said:

    France has u-turned: now open to EU treaty change to keep Britain in.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11889378/France-signals-EU-treaty-change-to-avert-Brexit-warns-on-euro-survival.html

    They've looked at the polling.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,669
    Two years to the referendum and Europe will be vastly different with freedom of movement gone. It simply cannot survive and there are going to be a lot of discussions and States forced to compromise or the whole edifice will come crashing down. Interesting even Hollande was conciliatory with Cameron this week as they know they will have to co-operate over Syria and economic issues. Hollande said he is open to Treaty Change and that is a first. The referendum will concentrate minds and I expect other countries will also hold referendums. Change is coming in a big way that is going to rock the Brussel elite and yes that means Juncker
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Sean_F said:

    runnymede said:

    Yet if the UK votes for Leave, UKIP can claim to be the most successful party in recent history, even as they disappear.

    If that happy day does come, I can't help feeling it will be as much in spite of UKIP (and especially Farage) as because of it.

    There I beg to differ. It was UKIP that campaigned for Brexit when the idea seemed absurd; UKIP that brought the idea into the mainstream; UKIP that applied the pressure that led the Prime Minister to agree to a referendum.
    First, Ukip is only partly a movement of anti-European Union sentiment and has primarily been about other kinds of fear and resentment. If they have had an impact, it has been on responses to the current refugee crisis. Second, Ukip could not have pushed Cameron without a massive heave from his own MPs, helped by the anti-European Union tendency of grassroots members who had a big role in their selection. Third, Brexit has never been off the agenda and has tended to have respectable people backing it at every stage of the UK's membership of the Union; in this sense, Ukip is an avatar rather than an instigator.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Sean_F said:

    JEO said:

    France has u-turned: now open to EU treaty change to keep Britain in.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11889378/France-signals-EU-treaty-change-to-avert-Brexit-warns-on-euro-survival.html

    They've looked at the polling.
    It's like the Scotland situation. The worse the polling for Remain, the better the goodies we'll be offered.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited September 2015
    JEO said:

    France has u-turned: now open to EU treaty change to keep Britain in.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11889378/France-signals-EU-treaty-change-to-avert-Brexit-warns-on-euro-survival.html

    I think we will be offered associate membership. Although I wouldn't be suprised if it is virtually the same as our current arrangement.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    JEO said:

    Just seen the news clips of Farron's speech. I don't find him appealing at all. He came across as an angry student politician.

    Perhaps, just perhaps, Mr JEO, his speech was not directed towards your demographic. IIRC you are an elderly, rather reactionary Tory supporter. I woud be concerned if you were youngish and somewhat free-thinking.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Two years to the referendum and Europe will be vastly different with freedom of movement gone. It simply cannot survive and there are going to be a lot of discussions and States forced to compromise or the whole edifice will come crashing down. Interesting even Hollande was conciliatory with Cameron this week as they know they will have to co-operate over Syria and economic issues. Hollande said he is open to Treaty Change and that is a first. The referendum will concentrate minds and I expect other countries will also hold referendums. Change is coming in a big way that is going to rock the Brussel elite and yes that means Juncker

    the post EU migrant summit speech by Tusk was almost word for word what Cameron has been saying for the past month. the media have completely missed the EU U-turn because all their reporters are still trying to get awards for posting pictures of 'desperate refugees' fleeing brutal torture from the Turkish riviera. :)

    This was what made Farron's speech the other day so completely bonkers.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    PClipp said:

    JEO said:

    Just seen the news clips of Farron's speech. I don't find him appealing at all. He came across as an angry student politician.

    Perhaps, just perhaps, Mr JEO, his speech was not directed towards your demographic. IIRC you are an elderly, rather reactionary Tory supporter. I woud be concerned if you were youngish and somewhat free-thinking.
    I am in my late 30s and a mainstream conservative. I was more speaking about his demeanour rather than the policy arguments he was making, but thank you for your concern.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    MP_SE said:

    JEO said:

    France has u-turned: now open to EU treaty change to keep Britain in.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11889378/France-signals-EU-treaty-change-to-avert-Brexit-warns-on-euro-survival.html

    I think we will be offered associate membership. Although I wouldn't be suprised if it is virtually the same as our current arrangement.
    Associate membership is a meaningless phrase unless it is accompanied by major change in policies.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,419
    JEO said:

    PClipp said:

    JEO said:

    Just seen the news clips of Farron's speech. I don't find him appealing at all. He came across as an angry student politician.

    Perhaps, just perhaps, Mr JEO, his speech was not directed towards your demographic. IIRC you are an elderly, rather reactionary Tory supporter. I woud be concerned if you were youngish and somewhat free-thinking.
    I am in my late 30s and a mainstream conservative. I was more speaking about his demeanour rather than the policy arguments he was making, but thank you for your concern.
    Pclipp's post got me wondering, I didn't think you were that old !
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,669
    felix said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Two years to the referendum and Europe will be vastly different with freedom of movement gone. It simply cannot survive and there are going to be a lot of discussions and States forced to compromise or the whole edifice will come crashing down. Interesting even Hollande was conciliatory with Cameron this week as they know they will have to co-operate over Syria and economic issues. Hollande said he is open to Treaty Change and that is a first. The referendum will concentrate minds and I expect other countries will also hold referendums. Change is coming in a big way that is going to rock the Brussel elite and yes that means Juncker

    the post EU migrant summit speech by Tusk was almost word for word what Cameron has been saying for the past month. the media have completely missed the EU U-turn because all their reporters are still trying to get awards for posting pictures of 'desperate refugees' fleeing brutal torture from the Turkish riviera. :)

    This was what made Farron's speech the other day so completely bonkers.
    As I have commented on here several times the media, in particular the broadcast media, have not been fair to the public who seem to have far more sense in seeing through the sentiment. Both Corbyn and Farron are a million miles from public opinion on this issue
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,553
    EPG said:

    Sean_F said:

    runnymede said:

    Yet if the UK votes for Leave, UKIP can claim to be the most successful party in recent history, even as they disappear.

    If that happy day does come, I can't help feeling it will be as much in spite of UKIP (and especially Farage) as because of it.

    There I beg to differ. It was UKIP that campaigned for Brexit when the idea seemed absurd; UKIP that brought the idea into the mainstream; UKIP that applied the pressure that led the Prime Minister to agree to a referendum.
    First, Ukip is only partly a movement of anti-European Union sentiment and has primarily been about other kinds of fear and resentment. If they have had an impact, it has been on responses to the current refugee crisis. Second, Ukip could not have pushed Cameron without a massive heave from his own MPs, helped by the anti-European Union tendency of grassroots members who had a big role in their selection. Third, Brexit has never been off the agenda and has tended to have respectable people backing it at every stage of the UK's membership of the Union; in this sense, Ukip is an avatar rather than an instigator.
    Of course, UKIP on its own would be a voice in the wilderness. But, where the party has succeeded is in radicalising public opinion, and drawing the Conservative Party in its direction. The Conservatives could have responded like the Moderates in Sweden, or the CDU, treating the party to their Right as lepers, but that risked losing half their members.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,419
    Wonder which GOP candidate will be up for a surge next ?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,914
    hunchman said:

    Omnium said:

    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bernie Sanders is at a very investable 8.4 on Betfair.

    Nice to see Biden shortening too.

    Sanders is good value IMHO as well. Biden and Hilary are seen as far too establishment. A fatal flaw in the upcoming tumult.
    This fund http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F000003YD7 a good one to buy if the Dow goes to 13500 or so then :) ?
    Yep that would be good. I favour large US importers doing well given the upcoming and ongoing strength of the US dollar but a passive fund at this stage in the cycle will outperform the vast majority of active managers when market breadth is typically weak in the late stages of a rally.
    So, your specific recommendation being what exactly?

    I love the fact your crystal ball gives you certainty about the upcoming strength of the dollar too.

    You've said nothing, and badly.

    I was dollar bullish when everyone was against me.....and proved right over the past year and more much to the annoyance of the dollar haters. Just sitting in USD before this great buying opportunity in US stocks presents itself. ..but not yet. USD strength and rising US indexes will make a great combo for a UK investor. How clear do you need me to be!
    I feel you've made yourself abundantly clear. How's the paper-round doing?

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