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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly the polls and the betting move away from Donald Tr

How the betting has moved sharply away from. Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/dfYCZZdeJX
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I have no idea where that stat that that less than half of current Lab supporters would prefer Corbyn to be PM over Osborne came from.
The dataset shows Corbyn leading with Lab voters by 61% to Osborne's 7%. Among the whole electorate, Osborne is ahead 33-24, with 43% saying "not sure". (From memory, I think that is a smaller lead than Cameron ever had over Miliband). Jez is slightly ahead among "potential" Lab swing voters.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ii9ytqtjhm/NStables_150917_W5.pdf
I'll get my coat...
#wig_gate
Of course HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
https://twitter.com/BBCPeterH/status/647088017656647680
https://twitter.com/LibDemConf/status/647412107181490176
Of course @HYUFD laughed at me for tipping him early, because apparently polls matter or something...
Take a look at @Daily_Express's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Daily_Express/status/647468748404883456?s=09
Whoever said "there is no such thing as bad publicity" certainly seems to have the ear of the UKIP conference. It should all be very entertaining on the news tonight, and Carswell speech tommorow will be one to watch too.
I've backed Fiorina. To me she seems credible and sensible. I also think that the Republicans would like to get one over on the Democrats by running the first female candidate.
All the polling is a bit sketchy currently. The candidates that aren't really in the race will just drop out along the way, and it'll be clearer in a few weeks. Personally I expect Carson to drop out also - I think he'll work out he's not suited to be the big cheese.
Trump will of course run as far as he can. It'll be best for everyone if that involves a collision with a brick wall.
Elon University North Carolina Republican Primary
Trump – 21.5%
Carson – 20.9%
Fiorina – 9.9%
Rubio – 7.4%
Bush – 7.0%
Cruz – 6.2%
Huckabee – 4.1%
Paul – 2.3%
Kasich – 2.1%
Christie – 1.6%
Santorum – 1.0%
Graham – 0.2%
Gilmore – 0.0%
Jindal – 0.0%
Pataki – 0.0%
Undecided – 13.2%
http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/default.xhtml
CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Republican Primary
Trump – 26%
Fiorina – 16%
Rubio – 9%
Carson – 8%
Bush – 7%
Kasich – 7%
Christie – 5%
Cruz – 5%
Paul – 3%
Gilmore – 1%
Graham – 1%
Huckabee – *
Pataki – *
Santorum – *
Jindal – 0%
Undecided – 11%
http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmurcnn-poll-trump-continues-to-lead-fiorina-now-second-in-new-hampshire/35467172
Jacksonville University Florida Republican Primary
Trump – 24%
Bush – 17%
Carson – 15%
Rubio – 15%
Fiorina – 7%
Cruz – 4%
Kasich – 2%
Huckabee – 1%
Paul – 1%
Christie – *
Graham – *
Pataki – *
Santorum – *
Gilmore – 0%
Jindal – 0%
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/09/24/ju-poll-trump-leads-fiorina-and-rubio-rise-bush-steady/72739738/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html.
He may be worth a long-shot bet, but it is a very long-shot
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-jeremy-corbyn-full-access-to-security-secrets-says-hilary-benn-a2955646.html
Bad camera angles, all the flak etc, but still he's saying something that broadly makes sense. I don't know if the EU is a sensible thing. There isn't much evidence either way. The tide of Euro-involvement is very strong though. Almost everyone in the UK now knows who the most important person in Germany is. Why? They have no idea who the most important person in Wales is!
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/niall-ferguson-arrogant-actually-i-m-far-too-good-at-hiding-my-humility-a2955651.html
My word you sell your convictions cheaply! I'm pretty sure you will always get people to throw in a used t-shirt, and half a carrot to your benefit on those terms.
I reckon it will be one of the four, maybe 80% chance.
Trump is excluded Cruz is an outside possibility, but you can't back em all.
Betfair's market has Walker still in it, should be a giveaway...)
Edited to add: Not intending to malign Mr Corbyn in any way. Just a hypothetical.
An interesting week overall. I thought (though I would, wouldn't I ?) the LD Conference went pretty well. I got to hear Tim Farron's first leader's speech. Naturally it was personal and introductory and long on generalities and short on specifics - again, not surprising given we are less than five months into a sixty month electoral cycle. Now is obviously not the time for detailed policy commitments of any kind.
I liked the emphasis on housing and the achievements of the Coalition and the Party will support the REMAIN platform - will it be Cameron and Farron on one platform and Corbyn and Farage on the other (which will be interesting) - not that I think the EU "superior to the UK" as someone downthread who doesn't know any better suggested.
For all that's been said, the IPSOS-MORI numbers didn't look that bad for Labour in VI terms but the question is whether the 40% (Plus or minus) Conservative voting glacis is the very permafrost or whether it can be shifted in the years ahead.
I don't know - we are still in the post-election honeymoon/doldrums (delete as appropriate).The big opinion shifting events haven't yet happened - UKIP are as usual here, there and everywhere in the polls though IPSOS-MORI had them close to the LDs in the 8-9% range.
The refugee/migrant story has quietened in the past few days though is liable of course to flare up at any time and it remains to be seen if Russian actions in Syria will be pivotal. The recent "understanding" between Moscow and Tel Aviv seems to have given Putin the green light to intervene strongly in support of Assad though whether that will provoke an anti-Russian backlash from ISIS remains to be seen.
Sanders 46%
Clinton 30%
Biden 14%
O'Malley 5%
Webb 2%
https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_fall_demprim092415.pdf
As lukewarm as his support for REMAIN is.
Any courtesy to Corbyn goes straight into the dustbin if he's a risk to that in any way.
An interesting one... could Clinton come from behind?
...Hold on a minute. Boehner resigning is great news for Trump and great news for all of us who believe in liberty and freedom.
On other matters 16280 is the key level to look out for tonight in the closing of the Dow. Closing below there opens the way to a mini panic down into the 13000's and a wonderful buying opportunity when everyone else in panicking like mad. It'll be one sling shot move to remember!
***** BETTING POST *****
"Criminal proceedings have been opened against Sepp Blatter by the Swiss Attorney General on two issues: a TV rights deal that FIFA signed with Jack Warner's Caribbean Football Union and an alleged "disloyal payment" of two million Swiss francs made in 2011 to UEFA president Michel Platini."
This news seems unlikely to assist Platini's quest to become the next FIFA President, in which event Prince Ali Al-Hussein's chances of securing the top job appear to be greatly improved ..... available at odds of 3/1 from BWIN or 5/2 from those nice folk at SkyBet.
DYOR.
Nice to see Biden shortening too.
https://twitter.com/SuzanneEvans1/status/647391438762848256
https://twitter.com/SuzanneEvans1/status/647386146671079424
If that happy day does come, I can't help feeling it will be as much in spite of UKIP (and especially Farage) as because of it.
I love the fact your crystal ball gives you certainty about the upcoming strength of the dollar too.
You've said nothing, and badly.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11889378/France-signals-EU-treaty-change-to-avert-Brexit-warns-on-euro-survival.html
This was what made Farron's speech the other day so completely bonkers.