politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whatever the veracity of the story this could stick to “Cal

bah speedy! Everyone else was holding off posting!

This is more a story for Mock the Week and Hislop and Merton than giving Cameron any serious damage

Well at least the biggest humanitarian disaster ( according to Bigjohnowls) has blown over and is now solved

Can you imagine the thousands turning up,otherwise...

Another Ian Dale book just published - not making quite the same splash as the Ashcroft book !! - but an excellent behind the scenes insight into the Better Together campaign by Joe Pike:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Project-Fear-Unlikely-Alliance-Kingdom/dp/1849549311/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1442865112&sr=1-1

HYUFD said:

New Zogby national poll - Trump widens his lead for the GOP nomination

Trump 33% (+ 2%).
Carson 13% (-3%)
Bush 9% (-)
Fiorina 7% (+5%)
Cruz 5% (+1%)
Rubio 4% (-)
Paul 4% (-)
Kasich 4% (-)
Christie 3%. (-)
Walker 2% (-3%)
Huckabee 2% (-2%).
http://www.zogbyanalytics.com/news/649-zogby-poll-trump-widens-lead-after-gop-debate

Carson is probably toast.

I've backed Fiorina, and I still think she has the best chance amongst them.

I'm sure Trump has some good qualities, but he hides them very effectively. The 'anyone but Trump' vote has to be sufficient to kick him out.

HYUFD said:

This is more a story for Mock the Week and Hislop and Merton than giving Cameron any serious damage

The book title is also a give away as far as the motives are concerned since its recorded by the times political writer I believe that the only PM to say to staff 'call me.... ' was Gordon Brown. It never even applied to 'call me Tony'. So the title is tellingly false. Does it refer to another 'Dave'? Is it a case of mistaken identity?

Guess what Matt is about...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/

Omnium said:

HYUFD said:

New Zogby national poll - Trump widens his lead for the GOP nomination

Trump 33% (+ 2%).
Carson 13% (-3%)
Bush 9% (-)
Fiorina 7% (+5%)
Cruz 5% (+1%)
Rubio 4% (-)
Paul 4% (-)
Kasich 4% (-)
Christie 3%. (-)
Walker 2% (-3%)
Huckabee 2% (-2%).
http://www.zogbyanalytics.com/news/649-zogby-poll-trump-widens-lead-after-gop-debate

Carson is probably toast.

I've backed Fiorina, and I still think she has the best chance amongst them.

I'm sure Trump has some good qualities, but he hides them very effectively. The 'anyone but Trump' vote has to be sufficient to kick him out.

I don't know, 3 months in and his lead shows no sign of shrinking. The NH poll posted in the last thread would suggest that Fiorina is his closest rival, but she is basically Romney in a skirt and I would still fancy Trump to beat her.

DavidL said:

This story seems to be complete crap but it has gone around the world now and damaged Cameron's reputation and ability to represent our country. Being a politician he probably won't sue but he really should. And even the Daily Mail should be ashamed of itself. Our political discourse hit a new low today.

Reason 327 not to ever stand for an elected public position.

Getting your cock out whilst pissed as a dare seemed pretty much de rigueur amongst sports clubs at my university, particularly for initiations.

Does that make it clever or funny?

No, but these are very young men experiencing their first taste of freedom. Groups of them together do silly things that they later cringe in embarrassment when they recollect.

DavidL said:

This story seems to be complete crap but it has gone around the world now and damaged Cameron's reputation and ability to represent our country. Being a politician he probably won't sue but he really should. And even the Daily Mail should be ashamed of itself. Our political discourse hit a new low today.

Reason 327 not to ever stand for an elected public position.

I think it's reason 327 not to be associated with crazy cults or societies when young and ambitious.
I too have some stories from university but nothing as bizarre as the secret societies and crazy cults you might watch in a trashy american movie or Oxford in the late 80's.
Cameron's student life sounds like it should be part of a Stanley Kubrick film.

HYUFD said:

This is more a story for Mock the Week and Hislop and Merton than giving Cameron any serious damage

According to wiki Hislop may have been a former member of the Piers Gaveston society and at the same time as Hugh Grant! I've always considered Cameron a rather boringly conventional type in the home counties mould. Leaving aside the credibility of the pig story, if he really was the member of a society named in honour of a 14th century French nobleman who allegedly had a homosexual affair with King Edward II, I might have to change my opinion of him.

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

This story seems to be complete crap but it has gone around the world now and damaged Cameron's reputation and ability to represent our country. Being a politician he probably won't sue but he really should. And even the Daily Mail should be ashamed of itself. Our political discourse hit a new low today.

Reason 327 not to ever stand for an elected public position.

Getting your cock out whilst pissed as a dare seemed pretty much de rigueur amongst sports clubs at my university, particularly for initiations.

Does that make it clever or funny?

No, but these are very young men experiencing their first taste of freedom. Groups of them together do silly things that they later cringe in embarrassment when they recollect.

George W Bush did things that were just as stupid in the Skull and Bones society at Yale which were also widely recounted

If you are trying to defend Cameron, then you are making things worse by comparing his behaviour with G.W.B.

DavidL said:

This story seems to be complete crap but it has gone around the world now and damaged Cameron's reputation and ability to represent our country. Being a politician he probably won't sue but he really should. And even the Daily Mail should be ashamed of itself. Our political discourse hit a new low today.

Reason 327 not to ever stand for an elected public position.

Indeed, I'm surprised that the irony of Dave meeting the Danish PM earlier hasn't been picked up by the press, as Denmark has only recently outlawed it's bestiality brothels:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/32411241/denmark-passes-law-to-ban-bestiality

I wonder if the chaps ever took their activities offshore ?

JWisemann said:

Maybe we've all got that out of our systems we can start talking about actual policies now?

The Labour lady on DP this lunchtime gave a better argument for railway renationalisation than almost all posters on here who've tried. Although there were deep flaws in her arguments, it looks as if Labour are getting their attack lines rehearsed well.

Beverley_C said:

I am still trying to figure out how any man would get his privates into a dead pigs mouth. I would have thought that the mere idea would have made the "little gentleman" shrivel up as small as possible.

You can fit an apple easily inside a pigs mouth. If it did happen it was probably a quick dare: go on, pretend to put your todger in his mouth! ...WAAAAHHHHAYY!!! *take quick photo*

Put it away, zip up, grab a pint, get your back slapped by your mates..

Whole thing over in 10 seconds.

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

This story seems to be complete crap but it has gone around the world now and damaged Cameron's reputation and ability to represent our country. Being a politician he probably won't sue but he really should. And even the Daily Mail should be ashamed of itself. Our political discourse hit a new low today.

Reason 327 not to ever stand for an elected public position.

Getting your cock out whilst pissed as a dare seemed pretty much de rigueur amongst sports clubs at my university, particularly for initiations.

Does that make it clever or funny?

No, but these are very young men experiencing their first taste of freedom. Groups of them together do silly things that they later cringe in embarrassment when they recollect.

That may be, but equally looking unflattering while eating a bacon sandwich is also de rigeur, yet people still laughed at it. We humans are nothing if not hypocritical.

If this story was about Boris then it would probably wouldn't have much impact since he'd have other strengths to fall back on (likeability, humour). But Cameron's main stock in trade was his supposed stature and credibility as a statesman.

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

This story seems to be complete crap but it has gone around the world now and damaged Cameron's reputation and ability to represent our country. Being a politician he probably won't sue but he really should. And even the Daily Mail should be ashamed of itself. Our political discourse hit a new low today.

Reason 327 not to ever stand for an elected public position.

Getting your cock out whilst pissed as a dare seemed pretty much de rigueur amongst sports clubs at my university, particularly for initiations.

Does that make it clever or funny?

No, but these are very young men experiencing their first taste of freedom. Groups of them together do silly things that they later cringe in embarrassment when they recollect.

George W Bush did things that were just as stupid in the Skull and Bones society at Yale which were also widely recounted

If you are trying to defend Cameron, then you are making things worse by comparing his behaviour with G.W.B.

Well it did GWB no harm electorally and I doubt it will do Cameron any harm either, Bill Clinton got away with worse, whatever Dave did with a dead pig at Oxford he is loyal to SamCam, which is more than can be said for most French Presidents

Speedy said:

DavidL said:

This story seems to be complete crap but it has gone around the world now and damaged Cameron's reputation and ability to represent our country. Being a politician he probably won't sue but he really should. And even the Daily Mail should be ashamed of itself. Our political discourse hit a new low today.

Reason 327 not to ever stand for an elected public position.

I think it's reason 327 not to be associated with crazy cults or societies when young and ambitious.
I too have some stories from university but nothing as bizarre as the secret societies and crazy cults you might watch in a trashy american movie or Oxford in the late 80's.
Cameron's student life sounds like it should be part of a Stanley Kubrick film.

Some common sense!

However it would appear that the opposite ends up being the case - that to be accepted into the corridors of power it's better to have dirty secrets they can hold over you; almost a requirement in fact.

calum said:

DavidL said:

This story seems to be complete crap but it has gone around the world now and damaged Cameron's reputation and ability to represent our country. Being a politician he probably won't sue but he really should. And even the Daily Mail should be ashamed of itself. Our political discourse hit a new low today.

Reason 327 not to ever stand for an elected public position.

Indeed, I'm surprised that the irony of Dave meeting the Danish PM earlier hasn't been picked up by the press, as Denmark has only recently outlawed it's bestiality brothels:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/32411241/denmark-passes-law-to-ban-bestiality

I wonder if the chaps ever took their activities offshore ?

Nope !!

Besides which it's very difficult to get a heli survival suit and a life jacket onto a goat......

Err... Cough...

So I am told from a friend of a friend of course
:-)

Moses_ said:

Speedy said:

DavidL said:

This story seems to be complete crap but it has gone around the world now and damaged Cameron's reputation and ability to represent our country. Being a politician he probably won't sue but he really should. And even the Daily Mail should be ashamed of itself. Our political discourse hit a new low today.

Reason 327 not to ever stand for an elected public position.

I think it's reason 327 not to be associated with crazy cults or societies when young and ambitious.
I too have some stories from university but nothing as bizarre as the secret societies and crazy cults you might watch in a trashy american movie or Oxford in the late 80's.
Cameron's student life sounds like it should be part of a Stanley Kubrick film.

Yeah church every Sunday etc etc etc,

You really are a knob. You just are.

Not called for.

This is why I think the GOP nomination process will be mired in clouds of uncertainty until at least March.

First column = date; second column = cumulative delegate count out of 2470:

1-Feb-16 30
9-Feb-16 53
20-Feb-16 103
23-Feb-16 133
1-Mar-16 829
5-Mar-16 960
8-Mar-16 1077
13-Mar-16 1100
15-Mar-16 1386
22-Mar-16 1444
5-Apr-16 1486
19-Apr-16 1581
26-Apr-16 1753
3-May-16 1810
10-May-16 1880
17-May-16 1908
7-Jun-16 2211
14-Jun-16 2230

MTimT said:

This is why I think the GOP nomination process will be mired in clouds of uncertainty until at least March.

First column = date; second column = cumulative delegate count out of 2470:

1-Feb-16 30
9-Feb-16 53
20-Feb-16 103
23-Feb-16 133
1-Mar-16 829
5-Mar-16 960
8-Mar-16 1077
13-Mar-16 1100
15-Mar-16 1386
22-Mar-16 1444
5-Apr-16 1486
19-Apr-16 1581
26-Apr-16 1753
3-May-16 1810
10-May-16 1880
17-May-16 1908
7-Jun-16 2211
14-Jun-16 2230

Sorry for the alignment of columns. There were nicely aligned in the edit box.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Moses_ said:

Speedy said:

DavidL said:

This story seems to be complete crap but it has gone around the world now and damaged Cameron's reputation and ability to represent our country. Being a politician he probably won't sue but he really should. And even the Daily Mail should be ashamed of itself. Our political discourse hit a new low today.

Reason 327 not to ever stand for an elected public position.

I think it's reason 327 not to be associated with crazy cults or societies when young and ambitious.
I too have some stories from university but nothing as bizarre as the secret societies and crazy cults you might watch in a trashy american movie or Oxford in the late 80's.
Cameron's student life sounds like it should be part of a Stanley Kubrick film.

Yeah church every Sunday etc etc etc,

You really are a knob. You just are.

Not called for.

Sorry
Yes it was.. He will get worse down the pub for coming out with that stuff.

From the last thread -

"The evil Machiavellian in me is sensing that this is, in fact, a hatchet job on Ashcroft - not on Cameron. Fed false innuendo and outright lies which he credulously gobbled up, only to make a fool of himself. However, if this is perpetrated by a Cameron fan or inner circle, it is a very high risk strategy. Perhaps someone who has a beef with both Cameron and Ashcroft ..."

I don't think so. Easier to follow the Cockup theory of history - look at the Hitler diaries, or Rathergate.

What you need is someone who really, really wants a story to be true. Then he/she comes across some pre-existing rubbish. Perhaps an idiot who has made up a story that he tells repeatedly to make himself sound like he is in the know. Flattered by the attention, he tells the journalist that it's all true and there even photographs...

The reports that the journalist and Ashcroft are backing away a bit from the story suggest they have found out the photos have an existence problem.

Watching Clegg's speech on BBC Parliament.

I am not sure they get why they lost so heavily in May. Looks like they would do it all over again.

Everyone else wrong but them.

Malmesbury said:

From the last thread -

"The evil Machiavellian in me is sensing that this is, in fact, a hatchet job on Ashcroft - not on Cameron. Fed false innuendo and outright lies which he credulously gobbled up, only to make a fool of himself. However, if this is perpetrated by a Cameron fan or inner circle, it is a very high risk strategy. Perhaps someone who has a beef with both Cameron and Ashcroft ..."

I don't think so. Easier to follow the Cockup theory of history - look at the Hitler diaries, or Rathergate.

What you need is someone who really, really wants a story to be true. Then he/she comes across some pre-existing rubbish. Perhaps an idiot who has made up a story that he tells repeatedly to make himself sound like he is in the know. Flattered by the attention, he tells the journalist that it's all true and there even photographs...

The reports that the journalist and Ashcroft are backing away a bit from the story suggest they have found out the photos have an existence problem.

They worded the story very carefully from the beginning, and I haven't seen any change from that.

Scott Walker out of Republican nomination race.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34317758

FPT

MarqueeMark said:

logical_song said:

Plato_Says said:

Or allegations about Rennard or boundary reviews.

Does he have CJD?

It's tragic for one so young.

rcs1000 said:

Plato_Says said:

Umm, didn't Cleggers just say that he didn't remember blocking any appts?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bloody Clegg. So glad I didn't vote for him now.

Remember when I tipped Lord Howard as our next man in Bruxelles at 25/1?

@TelePolitics: Nick Clegg: I blocked Lord Howard's appointment as EU commissioner http://t.co/DwK3EvZDPX

His memory goes in and out. He certainly doesn't remember saying that he didn't remember blocking any appointments.

It's quite simple really.
Clegg says he didn't block Ashcroft, that Cameron used him as an excuse.
Clegg says he did block Howard.

Surely, it is quite likely that if Clegg blocked the respected former Party leader, it was almost certain he would block the, er, somewhat less respected figure of Lord Ashcroft - so Cameron didn't actually ask Clegg because the answer - No!!! over my dead body - was 100% certain?

The "blocking" of Howard occurred in 2014 according to The Telegraph...

http://tinyurl.com/nm3y2bb

...four years after the supposed blocking of Ashcroft:

He left me hanging. On the second Sunday after he became Prime Minister,
he invited me to a family lunch at Chequers. He took me for a walk in the
garden, and told me that when appointing the coalition ministers, Liberal
Democrat leader Nick Clegg had vetoed any appointment for me. Recently,
after he stepped down as leader of the Liberal Democrats, we checked this
version of events with his office: Clegg said he had no recollection of having
barred any Conservative appointments.

Preface to Call Me Dave
http://www.lordashcroft.com/call_me_dave_preface.pdf

Clegg's office might be talking only about appointments to the Cabinet.

JosiasJessop said:

JWisemann said:

Maybe we've all got that out of our systems we can start talking about actual policies now?

The Labour lady on DP this lunchtime gave a better argument for railway renationalisation than almost all posters on here who've tried. Although there were deep flaws in her arguments, it looks as if Labour are getting their attack lines rehearsed well.

I can't remember her name either

foxinsoxuk said:

Anyone shagging animals tonight?

I really hate the word "shag". It sounds so, I don't know, hairy and perfunctory. A quick poke on a nylon carpet in some second rate and faintly smelly B&B. Lust is wonderful. Sex is great. Fuck is awesome. But "shag" - so common, as Alan Bennett's mother might have put it (except she wouldn't, of course).

Cyclefree said:

Also FPT @DavidL:-

Don't be so gloomy. Judging by your posts you seem to have it right: a wife and daughter to be proud of.

Put it this way, during my late teens my father was ill - dying in fact - and he died 3 weeks before my 21st birthday in my 2nd year at uni. I was well into my twenties before I really learnt to be me and not just a mass of unhappy and furious resentment at my loss.

We live the life we live. No point worrying about "what if". So long as you leave happy memories and people remember you - if they remember you at all - with affection and a smile on their face - well, what else - really - is there.

That is really sad Cyclefree. I was lucky that although both my parents died young (smokers) I was well past that stage before losing them.

I am very content with my life now. I just wished I had been more adventurous when I was younger but then, I probably wouldn't have what I have now would I? 3 kids by the way, all interesting and fun.

Scott Walker to Drop Out of Presidential Race

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is the latest casualty of the crowded Republican…

Scott Walker to Drop Out of 2016 Republican Presidential Race

After a dramatic fall from the top tier of Republican presidential field, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is set to abruptly end his White House bid today.

Pulpstar said:

Omnium said:

so.. a bad news day.

Risking displeasure in certain quarters I'd offer some good news. GWR is to re-emerge. Maybe this is old, good news, but I've just found out. So Paddington and the like may sport shiny signs once again. Paddington station has small hints of the architecture of Metropolis about it.

What was the bad news ?

I wasn't made Pope. It's happened before you know - yesterday for example I was overlooked in the same way. People have said before that the issue is that I'm not Catholic, but this day-by-day affront to my talents surely goes far beyond that......

JWisemann said:

Malmesbury said:

From the last thread -

"The evil Machiavellian in me is sensing that this is, in fact, a hatchet job on Ashcroft - not on Cameron. Fed false innuendo and outright lies which he credulously gobbled up, only to make a fool of himself. However, if this is perpetrated by a Cameron fan or inner circle, it is a very high risk strategy. Perhaps someone who has a beef with both Cameron and Ashcroft ..."

I don't think so. Easier to follow the Cockup theory of history - look at the Hitler diaries, or Rathergate.

What you need is someone who really, really wants a story to be true. Then he/she comes across some pre-existing rubbish. Perhaps an idiot who has made up a story that he tells repeatedly to make himself sound like he is in the know. Flattered by the attention, he tells the journalist that it's all true and there even photographs...

The reports that the journalist and Ashcroft are backing away a bit from the story suggest they have found out the photos have an existence problem.

They worded the story very carefully from the beginning, and I haven't seen any change from that.

Did you see the interviews/comments today?

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

Dair said:

Seems that Alex Massie believes there will be a Tory surge in Scotland based on them being able to appeal to the middle ground Devo Maxers.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/09/is-labour-still-a-unionist-party/

Shame that the middle ground may well not exist any more.

Well Comres and Yougov yesterday had the Scottish Tories over 20% compared to the 14% they got in May

Yesterday you wrote : -

Comres is also clearly wrong on subsamples as there is no way the Tories are ahead in Wales, the North and London when they were not even ahead there at the general election.

If you are going to be selective in your Pick'n'Mix reliance on tiny subsamples, you will need to at least be consistent.

Yes, but yougov contradicted comres on those subsamples, comres and yougov are in agreement the Tories are now over 20% in Scotland, just comres has Labour behind them on 17%, yougov ahead of them on 28%

But in addition you wrote : -

I suggest we hold forth until further subsamples from Scotland and polls from Scotland can be examined. However on the basis of subsamples given Comres' are completely out of tune with May's election results unlike yougov I suggest they be treated with some scepticism.

So not only are you hypocritically using a Comres poll you have previously rubbished as "clearly wrong" and needed to be "treated with scepticism" you are also breaking your own proposition to hold off using subsamples after you were resoundingly spanked by posters of all political backgrounds in yesterday's thread.

That was on the basis of comparing them to each other, when BOTH Comres and Yougov agree the Tories are up in Scotland that is telling you something. I was not spanked by anyone at all as both polls also showed the SNP down too. The only dispute was over whether Labour was up, yougov said they were, comres they were not, based on the dubious nature of comres' other subsamples I suggested yougov was more likely to be accurate. Yes, we can await further subsamples to confirm the Labour position but when 2 pollsters agree on something it suggests a trend

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

Dair said:

Seems that Alex Massie believes there will be a Tory surge in Scotland based on them being able to appeal to the middle ground Devo Maxers.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/09/is-labour-still-a-unionist-party/

Shame that the middle ground may well not exist any more.

Well Comres and Yougov yesterday had the Scottish Tories over 20% compared to the 14% they got in May

Yesterday you wrote : -

Comres is also clearly wrong on subsamples as there is no way the Tories are ahead in Wales, the North and London when they were not even ahead there at the general election.

If you are going to be selective in your Pick'n'Mix reliance on tiny subsamples, you will need to at least be consistent.

The Conservatives did very well in Wales in May and Wales has a pretty abject Labour Government failing on health and education in particular

Indeed, the first statistic of a dramatically new trend is always going to be seen at the time as an outlier. So when we get an outlier, we have no way of knowing whether it is in truth an outlier, or the first sign of a dramatic new trend.

Moses_ said:

Cyclefree said:

Also FPT @DavidL:-

Don't be so gloomy. Judging by your posts you seem to have it right: a wife and daughter to be proud of.

Put it this way, during my late teens my father was ill - dying in fact - and he died 3 weeks before my 21st birthday in my 2nd year at uni. I was well into my twenties before I really learnt to be me and not just a mass of unhappy and furious resentment at my loss.

We live the life we live. No point worrying about "what if". So long as you leave happy memories and people remember you - if they remember you at all - with affection and a smile on their face - well, what else - really - is there.

I had a similar sort of experience and still hurts today even 30 years later.

One thing to always remember is that Squadron Leader Cyclefree, he of one of the few, would be immensely proud......

That's all that matters really and all else pales........ That's the way I always look at it anyway.

Well said.

MTimT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

Dair said:

Seems that Alex Massie believes there will be a Tory surge in Scotland based on them being able to appeal to the middle ground Devo Maxers.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/09/is-labour-still-a-unionist-party/

Shame that the middle ground may well not exist any more.

Well Comres and Yougov yesterday had the Scottish Tories over 20% compared to the 14% they got in May

Yesterday you wrote : -

Comres is also clearly wrong on subsamples as there is no way the Tories are ahead in Wales, the North and London when they were not even ahead there at the general election.

If you are going to be selective in your Pick'n'Mix reliance on tiny subsamples, you will need to at least be consistent.

The Conservatives did very well in Wales in May and Wales has a pretty abject Labour Government failing on health and education in particular

Indeed, the first statistic of a dramatically new trend is always going to be seen at the time as an outlier. So when we get an outlier, we have no way of knowing whether it is in truth an outlier, or the first sign of a dramatic new trend.

There is no way the Tories are ahead in Wales.

The SUN feels left out...

@TheSun: EXCLUSIVE: David Cameron attended A-list cocaine party http://t.co/SNZQzgjo60 http://t.co/9YrZe8V9hM

Scott_P said:

The SUN feels left out...

@TheSun: EXCLUSIVE: David Cameron attended A-list cocaine party http://t.co/SNZQzgjo60 http://t.co/9YrZe8V9hM

The Chancellor has coke in front of him seems to have survived that.