politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A second poll in a week has the Scots voting for Independen

first?

Nice tributes for Hattie by Dave on her last PMQs

FREEDOM – but not during this parliament….

SimonStClare said:

FREEDOM – but not during this parliament….

who knows what Santa will bring

Software techie millionaire to run for POTUS:

http://thehill.com/policy/technology/252987-software-pioneer-mcafee-files-paperwork-to-run-for-president

I'd campaign for Scottish Independence if they could only guarantee that anti-slip matting would be placed on all Scottish slipways.

TOPPING said:

fpt @SouthamObserver

and now on topic:

ofc more people are saying they will vote Out. Same reason for the SNP landslide. They are safe in the referendum IN result and can now focus on agitating for more devolved powers to Scotlandshire. They do this by seeming to warn Westminster that they are on the verge of leaving.

All quite explicable; if there were another referendum tomorrow there would be another IN vote.

Then let's have one and put the whole thing to bed.

NickPalmer said:

Cyclefree said:

Nick - like many of us - believes what he would like to be true: that Corbyn is seeking agreement and talks, that these ghastly people are really quite reasonable underneath if only we could find out why they are so upset, that if we only met them half-way, all would be well in the best of all possible worlds, that everyone is basically like us and wants the same things as us and that it is hugely bad form of others to point out inconvenient facts which contradict this vew.

This tendency - to let your opinion determine the facts you take account of - is not confined to the Left of course. It's just that at the moment we are having a reduction ad absurdum example from them.

Not exactly. The question is how to deal with ghastly people who are significantly impacting normal life, rather than to suppose that they're really quite OK. Northern Ireland illustrated the problem - the early attempts to end the Troubles through deals with moderates failed since the (in my view clearly bonkers - what sane person kills innocent people to shift a border within the EU?) extremists were not involved.In the end, we did a deal with the extremists, which has more or less worked. I think that has been helped rather than hindered by a willingness to listen to what they said, so we could see whether there was a basis for a deal or not, and I'm in favour of backbenchers playing a part in that, as it's often a sensible prelude to more official contacts.

But we've been over this a few times now!

But it was only possible to do a deal with (most of) the extremists when they were themselves willing to give sufficient ground to make a deal involving all sides viable. Britain could have done all the listening it like in the 1970s and 1980s and it wouldn't have made any difference. Indeed, it could well have signalled that the government was willing to concede significant ground and that the armed campaign was winning. Ultimately, Britain only did deals with the Irish extremists when one side came to the conclusion that it wasn't worth continuing with the fight if there was a reasonable political deal on the table. Under Lloyd George, it was the UK government that buckled; in the 1990s, it was the republicans.

Where terrorists have limited political ends, talks may be possible. Where their aims are either much more ambitious, or where they would impose an unjust settlement, or where there is no willingness to compromise, talks will not only not be possible but would be unwise. Where war is politics by other means then it is still politics, and politics holds a means to a solution. Where it isn't - where its aim is outright conquest, for example - the fire has to be met with fire.

And on topic, tipping point.

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

fpt @SouthamObserver

and now on topic:

ofc more people are saying they will vote Out. Same reason for the SNP landslide. They are safe in the referendum IN result and can now focus on agitating for more devolved powers to Scotlandshire. They do this by seeming to warn Westminster that they are on the verge of leaving.

All quite explicable; if there were another referendum tomorrow there would be another IN vote.

Then let's have one and put the whole thing to bed.

Oh feck off. We've only just had one. I would like government business here at Holyrood to focus on running the country.
We need to focus on what the SNP are doing and get some form of useful opposition going.

DaemonBarber said:

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

fpt @SouthamObserver

and now on topic:

ofc more people are saying they will vote Out. Same reason for the SNP landslide. They are safe in the referendum IN result and can now focus on agitating for more devolved powers to Scotlandshire. They do this by seeming to warn Westminster that they are on the verge of leaving.

All quite explicable; if there were another referendum tomorrow there would be another IN vote.

Then let's have one and put the whole thing to bed.

Oh feck off. We've only just had one. I would like government business here at Holyrood to focus on running the country.
We need to focus on what the SNP are doing and get some form of useful opposition going.

But that is just not going to happen. The SNP are going to win another overall majority next year and that means constitutional issues will dominate. For Scotland that is not good at all. So the country has to decide once and for all what it wants.

SeanT said:

(though there should be some mechanism to allow a Scot in Scotland to become PM)

I think at a push we could reluctantly accept an arrangement which lacked such a mechanism.

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

fpt @SouthamObserver

and now on topic:

ofc more people are saying they will vote Out. Same reason for the SNP landslide. They are safe in the referendum IN result and can now focus on agitating for more devolved powers to Scotlandshire. They do this by seeming to warn Westminster that they are on the verge of leaving.

All quite explicable; if there were another referendum tomorrow there would be another IN vote.

Then let's have one and put the whole thing to bed.

well that's precisely what the SNP don't want. And it didn't put it to bed last time. It is a convenient device for the SNP to have and try to hold over Westminster's head. The PM should ignore it.

(Edit: all over the shop with my metaphors, there...)

It's hard to see how the SNP could turn down the offer of another referendum without splitting.

Agree. They also know they won't be offered one.

Holy moly harriet harman is very irritating.Imagine having to listen to that voice all day. jeeeeeez

David_Evershed said:

Still no Queen thread.

Since the Queen wants to play it low key I guess OGH is hoping for an OBE.

Sadly no Queen thread today. If it is any consolation last night I sang very loudly at thousands of Aussies

"God Save YOUR Queen"

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

DaemonBarber said:

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

fpt @SouthamObserver

and now on topic:

ofc more people are saying they will vote Out. Same reason for the SNP landslide. They are safe in the referendum IN result and can now focus on agitating for more devolved powers to Scotlandshire. They do this by seeming to warn Westminster that they are on the verge of leaving.

All quite explicable; if there were another referendum tomorrow there would be another IN vote.

Then let's have one and put the whole thing to bed.

Oh feck off. We've only just had one. I would like government business here at Holyrood to focus on running the country.
We need to focus on what the SNP are doing and get some form of useful opposition going.

But that is just not going to happen. The SNP are going to win another overall majority next year and that means constitutional issues will dominate. For Scotland that is not good at all. So the country has to decide once and for all what it wants.

I don't think the public is in a mood to decide once and for all. TSE is right to link this indysurge to Trump, Corbyn and LEAVE. Across the West voters are in mood to be capricious and unpredictable, to do mad and silly things, to jump in the Thames on a bleary Mayday dawn wearing full black tie, to vote for insane left or right wing politicians, from Sanders to Le Pen, so as to give the boring mainstream establishment a kicking.

The voters aren't deciding, they're chucking a tantrum.

This all day long.

Offering a new referendum now is moronic.

Davis and Cameron are not going to be friends any time soon!

SouthamObserver said:

DaemonBarber said:

SouthamObserver said:

DaemonBarber said:

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

fpt @SouthamObserver

and now on topic:

ofc more people are saying they will vote Out. Same reason for the SNP landslide. They are safe in the referendum IN result and can now focus on agitating for more devolved powers to Scotlandshire. They do this by seeming to warn Westminster that they are on the verge of leaving.

All quite explicable; if there were another referendum tomorrow there would be another IN vote.

Then let's have one and put the whole thing to bed.

Oh feck off. We've only just had one. I would like government business here at Holyrood to focus on running the country.
We need to focus on what the SNP are doing and get some form of useful opposition going.

But that is just not going to happen. The SNP are going to win another overall majority next year and that means constitutional issues will dominate. For Scotland that is not good at all. So the country has to decide once and for all what it wants.

We did.

Time now to focus on running the country.

As if.

I know...
Makes me very depressed.

DaemonBarber said:

first?

Nice tributes for Hattie by Dave on her last PMQs

Yet another Labour leader he's seen off....

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

DaemonBarber said:

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

fpt @SouthamObserver

and now on topic:

ofc more people are saying they will vote Out. Same reason for the SNP landslide. They are safe in the referendum IN result and can now focus on agitating for more devolved powers to Scotlandshire. They do this by seeming to warn Westminster that they are on the verge of leaving.

All quite explicable; if there were another referendum tomorrow there would be another IN vote.

Then let's have one and put the whole thing to bed.

Oh feck off. We've only just had one. I would like government business here at Holyrood to focus on running the country.
We need to focus on what the SNP are doing and get some form of useful opposition going.

But that is just not going to happen. The SNP are going to win another overall majority next year and that means constitutional issues will dominate. For Scotland that is not good at all. So the country has to decide once and for all what it wants.

What if the outcome is the same as last year?

Then practically speaking that kills the issue.

SouthamObserver said:

Not being an expert on reading polls: is this one (and was the Mori one) weighted on how respondents voted in the referendum last year?

And being thick, I also have to ask: does it matter if they weren't?

Ipsos Mori don't past vote weight. They weight to demographics.

TNS do the following

To ensure the sample was representative of the adult population of Scotland, it was weighted to match population estimates for working status within gender, age, social grade and Scottish Parliament region, and to match turnout and share of vote from the 2011 Holyrood election (constituency vote) and the 2015 General Election.

Plato said:

Well said, I'm amazed at @SouthamObserver saying roll over, when he claims to be passionate about the Union. No won by a significant margin.

Polls smolls.

DaemonBarber said:

SouthamObserver said:

DaemonBarber said:

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

fpt @SouthamObserver

and now on topic:

ofc more people are saying they will vote Out. Same reason for the SNP landslide. They are safe in the referendum IN result and can now focus on agitating for more devolved powers to Scotlandshire. They do this by seeming to warn Westminster that they are on the verge of leaving.

All quite explicable; if there were another referendum tomorrow there would be another IN vote.

Then let's have one and put the whole thing to bed.

Oh feck off. We've only just had one. I would like government business here at Holyrood to focus on running the country.
We need to focus on what the SNP are doing and get some form of useful opposition going.

But that is just not going to happen. The SNP are going to win another overall majority next year and that means constitutional issues will dominate. For Scotland that is not good at all. So the country has to decide once and for all what it wants.

We did.

Time now to focus on running the country.

I am passionate about it. But I am in a minority. So why get het up? I have my views, most disagree with them. And so the world turns. Life is generally very good.

MarqueeMark said:

DaemonBarber said:

first?

Nice tributes for Hattie by Dave on her last PMQs

Yet another Labour leader he's seen off....

Point of order - temporary stand-ins only count as half points.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. T, federalism could work, but requires an English Parliament.

Won't happen. The left want to carve England into shitty fiefdoms, the Conservatives seem afraid of emasculating Westminster.

We needn't worry what the left think for a very long time. They will argue about angels and pinheads while Osborne remoulds the country. It is an astonishing abdication of responsibility by the opposition.

SeanT said:

In much more important news, the John Lewis builders have finally left my flat, and my new kitchen is finished.

Oh my word. Carved granite worktop, crimson glass splashbacks. SEXY. My kitchen is SEXY.

Um. Sorry, but ... that all sounds rather ... well ... retro.

To me, anyway.

TOPPING said:

fpt @SouthamObserver

and now on topic:

ofc more people are saying they will vote Out. Same reason for the SNP landslide. They are safe in the referendum IN result and can now focus on agitating for more devolved powers to Scotlandshire. They do this by seeming to warn Westminster that they are on the verge of leaving.

All quite explicable; if there were another referendum tomorrow there would be another IN vote.

But that doesn't make any sense - 2 years out from the IndyRef, when everything was very, very safe, support for Indy was sub 35%.

It rose as we got closer to the Referendum and now you are saying it makes sense for it to rise as we get further away. You are basically saying that support for Indy can only got up.

blackburn63 said:

The 4 scenarios mentioned above would please me enormously, I suspect I'm not the only one. Rid of Scotland and the EU, the entertainment provided by Corbyn and Trump, my cup runneth over.

No, you're the only one.

An interesting job ad today.

Manager - Advanced Analytics Enablement Visualization

I have no idea what that means.

SimonStClare said:

MarqueeMark said:

DaemonBarber said:

first?

Nice tributes for Hattie by Dave on her last PMQs

Yet another Labour leader he's seen off....

Point of order - temporary stand-ins only count as half points.

Add Harriet together with Beckett then...

Charles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. T, federalism could work, but requires an English Parliament.

Won't happen. The left want to carve England into shitty fiefdoms, the Conservatives seem afraid of emasculating Westminster.

It's not that fricking difficult.

Turn the HoL into a Senate (second chamber for all 4 regional parliaments). Turn the House of Commons into the English Parliament.

Works for me.

"So if the polling is correct,"

Are we seriously paying attention to opinion polls at the moment? I know they're the grist to the mill of this site and give us loads of things to talk about, but the way people are speaking it's as if May's polling disaster never occurred.

DaemonBarber said:

SeanT said:

MattW said:

SeanT said:

In much more important news, the John Lewis builders have finally left my flat, and my new kitchen is finished.

Oh my word. Carved granite worktop, crimson glass splashbacks. SEXY. My kitchen is SEXY.

Um. Sorry, but ... that all sounds rather ... well ... retro.

To me, anyway.

No, trust me, it's gorgeous. The builder was just proudly taking photos. It's all sleek and modern and the sparkling red glass is LUXURIOUS. I want to sleep in my kitchen. Fuck it, I want to sleep WITH my kitchen.

Wish i'd gone with granite now instead of the solid oak worktops we chose. Looked great for about a week. A complete pain in the arse to maintain

You just need to make sure you oil them regularly for a few weeks. After that they look after themselves. Ours do, anyway.

DaemonBarber said:

SeanT said:

MattW said:

SeanT said:

In much more important news, the John Lewis builders have finally left my flat, and my new kitchen is finished.

Oh my word. Carved granite worktop, crimson glass splashbacks. SEXY. My kitchen is SEXY.

Um. Sorry, but ... that all sounds rather ... well ... retro.

To me, anyway.

No, trust me, it's gorgeous. The builder was just proudly taking photos. It's all sleek and modern and the sparkling red glass is LUXURIOUS. I want to sleep in my kitchen. Fuck it, I want to sleep WITH my kitchen.

Wish i'd gone with granite now instead of the solid oak worktops we chose. Looked great for about a week. A complete pain in the arse to maintain

It took ten burly blokes to carry in the granite top for our island. There haven't been so many chaps lugging one piece of stone since they built the Great Pyramid at Giza....

SouthamObserver said:

DaemonBarber said:

SeanT said:

MattW said:

SeanT said:

In much more important news, the John Lewis builders have finally left my flat, and my new kitchen is finished.

Oh my word. Carved granite worktop, crimson glass splashbacks. SEXY. My kitchen is SEXY.

Um. Sorry, but ... that all sounds rather ... well ... retro.

To me, anyway.

No, trust me, it's gorgeous. The builder was just proudly taking photos. It's all sleek and modern and the sparkling red glass is LUXURIOUS. I want to sleep in my kitchen. Fuck it, I want to sleep WITH my kitchen.

Wish i'd gone with granite now instead of the solid oak worktops we chose. Looked great for about a week. A complete pain in the arse to maintain

You just need to make sure you oil them regularly for a few weeks. After that they look after themselves. Ours do, anyway.

I'm sure your wife would agree ;-)

Tim_B said:

An interesting job ad today.

Manager - Advanced Analytics Enablement Visualization

I have no idea what that means.

Creating diagrams, graphs, charts and other mechanisms to detect useful patterns in customer-related, extra-company or intra-company data.

For added points, they should have added 'real-time'/

I guess.

MarqueeMark said:

DaemonBarber said:

first?

Nice tributes for Hattie by Dave on her last PMQs

Yet another Labour leader he's seen off....

He's seen her off twice, so he's had practice at these tributes.

In fact, I think Cameron has (or will this weekend) set a new record in having faced four permanent leaders of both other major parties, something only Baldwin had previously done. However, Cameron has also faced Harman (twice) and Cable in their temporary roles.

(Thatcher and Blair both faced eight across the two parties but with a 5/3 split).

It is – as they say on social media – top trolling of the House of Windsor to arrange for the Queen to spend today on a public visit in Scotland. Of course, she is in Scotland at Balmoral for the entirety of August and September, as she is every year. But it is tremendously amusing that she will travel to the Borders to take a train ride with Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. Seeing their “here today, gone tomorrow” political heroine sitting there smiling alongside a giant of history and superstar monarch will drive a lot of Scottish Nationalists – who cannot stand the monarchy – completely bananas. What a bonus, on this marvellous day.

http://www.capx.co/god-save-the-queen/

No 64100 Royal Scot has been returned to steam, pity she wasn't available to haul today's train for HMQ and Nicola Sturgeon.

http://www.iconsofsteam.com/locos/royal-scot/

@JoeWatts_: George Osborne confirms the Autumn Statement will be on the same day as the Spending Review - Wednesday Nov 25 https://t.co/kvHC1DTyL6

Scott_P said:

It is – as they say on social media – top trolling of the House of Windsor to arrange for the Queen to spend today on a public visit in Scotland. Of course, she is in Scotland at Balmoral for the entirety of August and September, as she is every year. But it is tremendously amusing that she will travel to the Borders to take a train ride with Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. Seeing their “here today, gone tomorrow” political heroine sitting there smiling alongside a giant of history and superstar monarch will drive a lot of Scottish Nationalists – who cannot stand the monarchy – completely bananas. What a bonus, on this marvellous day.

http://www.capx.co/god-save-the-queen/

And Labour getting all hot under the collar about us atomising a couple of oiks who were trying to knock off HM the Q.

Labour really don't do politics any more, do they?

JEO said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

fpt @SouthamObserver

and now on topic:

ofc more people are saying they will vote Out. Same reason for the SNP landslide. They are safe in the referendum IN result and can now focus on agitating for more devolved powers to Scotlandshire. They do this by seeming to warn Westminster that they are on the verge of leaving.

All quite explicable; if there were another referendum tomorrow there would be another IN vote.

Then let's have one and put the whole thing to bed.

well that's precisely what the SNP don't want. And it didn't put it to bed last time. It is a convenient device for the SNP to have and try to hold over Westminster's head. The PM should ignore it.

He shouldn't ignore it. He should give Scotland Full Fiscal autonomy, and Federalism - now.

Just do it. It's what the Scots want, and if they don't get it they will leave, in the end, anyway. It also addresses the WLQ (though there should be some mechanism to allow a Scot in Scotland to become PM) - which is good for England and ruinous for Labour. Win win.

Labour is finished in Scotland, so a federal UK is not really going to make much difference.

Disagree completely. Nothing is forever and this SNP supremacy will assuredly end - perhaps sooner than anyone realises. Perhaps after they get tax raising powers and people finally focus on what they do, rather than what they say.

And when the Nats fall back, as they will, I am pretty sure Labour will return (if the UK still exists, and I think it will). They might not ever achieve 40+ seats again, but 20-30 would be feasible. Federalism prevents Labour from using these MPs to run England.

I'd be very happy with a federal UK. It would be my ideal outcome. The problem with it, though, from a government perspective is that it gives more power to MPs and reduces the power of the executive. That's why EV4EL is so attractive. It makes the votes of English MPs much less powerful by turning an overall Tory majority of 12 into one of 60 or so, while also increasing the proportion of MPs (ministers, aides etc) who can never vote against the government.

There are a lot of problems with English votes for English laws, but that is not one of them. The strengths and weaknesses of a constitutional system shouldn't be based on the partisan mix of one particular five year parliament.

I agree. But that's exactly what the current proposals do.

TGOHF said:

Lots of Union flags on show in Edinburgh to day for the Queen

Which makes this even funnier

@JamieRoss7: I see #The45 are actually buying little saltire stickers to put over the "butcher's apron" on their driving licences. http://t.co/06XK9ckUUZ

Tim_B said:

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

An interesting job ad today.

Manager - Advanced Analytics Enablement Visualization

I have no idea what that means.

In bioinformatics these days, visualization of data is all the rage. It helps a lot with analyzing massive data sets. I suspect it is some new field related to Big Data.

It's for Toilet and Douche....

Provide complete operations services for application management, custom development, and business process outsourcing for clients. Develop the post implementation go-live support environment, construct the transition plan from the project team to the support team, and support and maintain the client applications and technology infrastructure

Sorry, fell asleep before I got to the end of that.

SeanT said:

MarqueeMark said:

SeanT said:

MarqueeMark said:

SeanT said:

In much more important news, the John Lewis builders have finally left my flat, and my new kitchen is finished.

Oh my word. Carved granite worktop, crimson glass splashbacks. SEXY. My kitchen is SEXY.

Pah! I bet it hasn't an island only slightly smaller than Greenland, has it?

Having recently been to Greenland...

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/640152534464663553


I can confirm that my kitchen is considerably smaller. And warmer.

I was aware. Am still tinged a certain shade of green at your jaunt. On the bucket list....

GO. It is absolutely amazing. And if you go, go to Ilulissat, and go to Disko Bay, and then take the boat to Equ glacier and stay at Equ glacier lodge. Where I stayed. one of the most magical evenings of my life. You will be the only people for 50 miles, or more. The nearest big city is THOUSANDS of miles away. The glacier calves icebergs through the night, roaring and rumbling like a muted but very angry God, trapped in an icy tomb.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/640153837274206208

Many thanks. Made a note of the hotel details...