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the woman who worries more about the safety of children a thousand miles away than those in her own consitituency.AndyJS said:0 -
Oddly, both Iain Dale and Tim Montgomerie have moved left since then, and Michael Portillo has moved right.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was a fan of Portillo and was genuinely confused who to back in 2001, either him or Clarke. But he went out of his way to annoy everyone.HYUFD said:
Indeed, in the Major years Portillo was the darling of the right and an irritant to Major and unpopular with everyone else, remember his 'he who dares wins' speechTheScreamingEagles said:
Frank Field would be the best choice, the other problem with Portillo is that he burnt his bridges with a lot of the Eurosceptic Tories back in 2001 when he lost faith in Thatcherism.HYUFD said:
Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and KippersTheScreamingEagles said:
The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?FrankBooth said:Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?
Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.
Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.
Hard to believe but back in the day, Portillo was considered the most nasty right wing Tory of the day.
There was even a book about it, Were you up for Portillo?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=54rhgUrzOXM
However, by 2001 even Thatcher made clear she was not explicitly backing Portillo when Portillistas tried to claim she thought he was a better option than IDS and then Thatcher backed IDS in a Telegraph letter once he was in the final round with Clarke
(Having said that I am a fan of Portillo, having heard him speak he was a great raconteur and answered a question of mine too)
Remember this piece from Iain Dale and Tim Montgomerie from 2006 absolutely slaughtering Portillo. Montie's going to play a major role in the referendum
http://iaindale.blogspot.co.uk/2006/01/michael-portillo-owes-conservative.html0 -
Hatchet Job on behalf of New Lab formatPlato said:I've been trying to think of the format Panorama is using for this = it's a cross between Scientology and Are You Trapped In A Cult?
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Is 10 okay? (33,000)Tykejohnno said:
And so it begins.AndyJS said:
How about 50? (160,000)
Or would 100 be satisfactory? (333,000)0 -
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.
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Yes, very interesting - for all his negatives, it will make the job of removing him harder, and in the right circumstances could keep him afloat for quite some time.JWisemann said:Interesting that Corbyn pretty much ties for top position on the positive side of things.
I think they could. Granted, I spent the last five years thinking they definitely would, but it's not just doubling down on that that makes me think so. I think I may be genetically unable to see a Tory victory as probable for some reason.JWisemann said:Also I don't think many people think anyone could lead labour to a majority next time.
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However, with Corbyn as leader, Bootle will become a Tory key marginal.TheScreamingEagles said:
You can add places like Warwickshire North, Stockton South to that listnotme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.0 -
I don't buy the theory some put forward that he somehow developed a different character after the events of 1997. It's much more likely that to become a top politician you need two character attributes: a friendly, almost smarmy side to people in person, and a harsh cutting, ruthless edge to your political friends and opponents.isam said:
Small sample, but my Labour voting parents (Dad UKIP 2015), and not at all politically interested friends all think Portillo is the business because of the railway programmes avec BradshawDanny565 said:
I'm not sure Portillo is at all popular outside of politico circles, especially with Labour voters. He has the kind of Osborne-esque smarminess which puts people off.isam said:
Portillo all day longHYUFD said:
Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and KippersTheScreamingEagles said:
The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?FrankBooth said:Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?
Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.
Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.
Probably the most media friendly political voice, the son of immigrants, bisexual, dislikes UKIP.. none of the childish insults from the pathetic smearers apply
Boris would be the jackpot for OUT.
Smart, quite handsome, beautifully spoken, lovely way about him.
I have heard that he isn't such a great guy in real life, but what does that matter?!
Subjective of course, but as an OUTer I would love him to have a prominent role in the BOO camp
It's perfectly possible that whilst he had political ambition, that latter trait was predominant (or at least was in the media), whilst the former was most seen in his personal relationships. Now there is no political ambition, the former is much more to the fore.0 -
Against Cameron no, against Osborne maybe, but only if Labour pick the right leaderkle4 said:
Yes, very interesting - for all his negatives, it will make the job of removing him harder, and in the right circumstances could keep him afloat for quite some time.JWisemann said:Interesting that Corbyn pretty much ties for top position on the positive side of things.
I think they could. Granted, I spent the last five years thinking they definitely would, but it's not just doubling down on that that makes me think so. I think I may be genetically unable to see a Tory victory as probable for some reason.JWisemann said:Also I don't think many people think anyone could lead labour to a majority next time.
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I wonder if the scores of vulnerable children/women will be given priority over the incoming asylum seekers.Alanbrooke said:
the woman who worries more about the safety of children a thousand miles away than those in her own consitituency.AndyJS said:0 -
Five sleeps until they follow The Great Messiah off the edge of the cliff?
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TV alert:
On BBC now, a TV program about one of the Bletchley WWII bods, Gordon Welchman. Might be interesting.
Edit: all we need now is more recognition of Tommy Flowers, one of the little-known heroes of Bletchley Park and an enemy of Welchman. Someone who, when people were sceptical about his idea of a programmable computer, paid for much of it out of his own pocket. The result was Colossus.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_Flowers0 -
I'd have Boris just ahead of Portillo as who I would fear most. It's been endlessly debated as to whether he's PM material (or seen as it) but leading a campaign like this is made for him. Obviously a figure from the left would provide crossover appeal but I can't see anyone at the moment who stands out. Straw and Reid weren't the most euro-enthusiastic but I doubt they'd be outers. 99% of people don't know who Frank Field is.0
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but then they lost all those seats in Scotland.JWisemann said:
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.
and won more votes in key marginals like Bootle and Sparkbrook.0 -
Panorama worth watching. Going to be "interesting".0
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One thing that is getting noticed is that local collection points for clothes/food/etc for refugees at Calais puts strong emphasis on what's not required: 'nothing for women/children, please'.flightpath01 said:
Bodrum. Thats not where they were going to - that was were they were trying to leave from. Just how much of that strange fact has seeped into the conciousness of the public?kle4 said:Given the current climate of emphasizing a (what I personally feel to be a real, if not as extreme as being made out) shift in public attitudes, I confess to being a little surprised to see this linked from the front page of the BBC (for all I think some Tories vastly overdo how biased it is, there are some issues I am surprised to see certain views permitted even by individuals).
The tragic image of little Alan Kurdi lying dead on Europe's shoreline has, we are told, awakened Britain's generous nature.
But I'm afraid I don't believe it. I just don't think public opinion shifts like that.
We were either more welcoming of refugees than suggested before the shocking photograph from a Bodrum beach last week, or we remain profoundly sceptical of the motives of many asylum seekers, and nervous of what might follow if we open our doors now.
I suspect it is the latter.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-341768510 -
Cameron is obviously far closer to public opinion than the EMOs.Tykejohnno said:
And so it begins.AndyJS said:0 -
Yes sounds about right, although I prefer "smoothie" to "smarmy"!JosiasJessop said:
I don't buy the theory some put forward that he somehow developed a different character after the events of 1997. It's much more likely that to become a top politician you need two character attributes: a friendly, almost smarmy side to people in person, and a harsh cutting, ruthless edge to your political friends and opponents.isam said:
Small sample, but my Labour voting parents (Dad UKIP 2015), and not at all politically interested friends all think Portillo is the business because of the railway programmes avec BradshawDanny565 said:
I'm not sure Portillo is at all popular outside of politico circles, especially with Labour voters. He has the kind of Osborne-esque smarminess which puts people off.isam said:
Portillo all day longHYUFD said:
Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and KippersTheScreamingEagles said:
The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?FrankBooth said:Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?
Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.
Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.
Probably the most media friendly political voice, the son of immigrants, bisexual, dislikes UKIP.. none of the childish insults from the pathetic smearers apply
Boris would be the jackpot for OUT.
Smart, quite handsome, beautifully spoken, lovely way about him.
I have heard that he isn't such a great guy in real life, but what does that matter?!
Subjective of course, but as an OUTer I would love him to have a prominent role in the BOO camp
It's perfectly possible that whilst he had political ambition, that latter trait was predominant (or at least was in the media), whilst the former was most seen in his personal relationships. Now there is no political ambition, the former is much more to the fore.0 -
Everyone has voted already haven't they?bigjohnowls said:This Panorama programme is a fookin disgrace.
How can this be broadcast in the middle of the leadership election.
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I'm already despising that argument, as RobD puts it what level would be satisfactory? I actually think it is fair game to argue for more to be taken, but it is not fair game to claim that the scale of the problem has not been noted by the PM, because taking even 1/2 million would not deal with more than a small fraction of the displaced in Syria. It would help a lot more people (in this way at any rate, currently the idea is to help the millions in or around Syria with aid), but against the scale of the problem it is still very small. It is the argument of those who were never going to be satisfied with any number.Tykejohnno said:
And so it begins.AndyJS said:
Argue for more, fine. Don't also imply your arbitrary figure recognizes the scale of the problem unless it in fact does solve the problem, which would would involve taking millions, IMO. It's the difference between simply arguing the PM isn't doing enough, which is a reasonable position to take, and moral grandstanding about it as well for political purposes in some competition to be the most right on.
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The 'nasty' bit is right - he seems outwardly a nice, charming person. And, frankly, when he stays away from politics he more or less is.TheScreamingEagles said:
Frank Field would be the best choice, the other problem with Portillo is that he burnt his bridges with a lot of the Eurosceptic Tories back in 2001 when he lost faith in Thatcherism.HYUFD said:
Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and KippersTheScreamingEagles said:
The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?FrankBooth said:Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?
Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.
Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.
Hard to believe but back in the day, Portillo was considered the most nasty right wing Tory of the day.
There was even a book about it, Were you up for Portillo?
Unfortunately, he's attacked and undermined every single Conservative leader since Thatcher and thinks he's the only one who's ever been right.0 -
I'm writing a piece on what the future holds for the Tory party in terms of future fault lines.Sean_F said:
Oddly, both Iain Dale and Tim Montgomerie have moved left since then, and Michael Portillo has moved right.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was a fan of Portillo and was genuinely confused who to back in 2001, either him or Clarke. But he went out of his way to annoy everyone.HYUFD said:
Indeed, in the Major years Portillo was the darling of the right and an irritant to Major and unpopular with everyone else, remember his 'he who dares wins' speechTheScreamingEagles said:
Frank Field would be the best choice, the other problem with Portillo is that he burnt his bridges with a lot of the Eurosceptic Tories back in 2001 when he lost faith in Thatcherism.HYUFD said:
Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and KippersTheScreamingEagles said:
The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?FrankBooth said:Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?
Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.
Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.
Hard to believe but back in the day, Portillo was considered the most nasty right wing Tory of the day.
There was even a book about it, Were you up for Portillo?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=54rhgUrzOXM
However, by 2001 even Thatcher made clear she was not explicitly backing Portillo when Portillistas tried to claim she thought he was a better option than IDS and then Thatcher backed IDS in a Telegraph letter once he was in the final round with Clarke
(Having said that I am a fan of Portillo, having heard him speak he was a great raconteur and answered a question of mine too)
Remember this piece from Iain Dale and Tim Montgomerie from 2006 absolutely slaughtering Portillo. Montie's going to play a major role in the referendum
http://iaindale.blogspot.co.uk/2006/01/michael-portillo-owes-conservative.html
I think we're all economic dries these days, no wets these days.
But on social policy and being pro big (multi national) business will be the future fault lines.
(Assuming we survive the EU referendum)0 -
I supported Portillo. I generally think we should choose the most conservative electable candidate, and that was him. IDS was out of his depth and Ken Clarke would have sold the country out to the EU.0
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It would be amusing if Corbyn further increased the vote, but did even worse because even more than Ed M he piled up votes in safe seats and lost them elsewhere. Maybe we'd finally get voting reform as even the victors felt things were getting ridiculous?JWisemann said:
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.0 -
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Some haven't received their ballot papers yet.JEO said:
Everyone has voted already haven't they?bigjohnowls said:This Panorama programme is a fookin disgrace.
How can this be broadcast in the middle of the leadership election.
I'm reminded of something about a brewery, but can't put my finger on it. So much for PB Tories never forgetting!0 -
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The man had 3 years to plan his trip, but the wife and children had no lifejackets, and the boat was according to the harbour master nothing more than a tourist dinghy with a toy motor. He claims that they died in his arms, but also that he didn't hang around when he went to shore because he thought they had run away. His conduct is criminally neglectful at best, and who knows what at worst.flightpath01 said:
Bodrum. Thats not where they were going to - that was were they were trying to leave from. Just how much of that strange fact has seeped into the conciousness of the public?kle4 said:Given the current climate of emphasizing a (what I personally feel to be a real, if not as extreme as being made out) shift in public attitudes, I confess to being a little surprised to see this linked from the front page of the BBC (for all I think some Tories vastly overdo how biased it is, there are some issues I am surprised to see certain views permitted even by individuals).
The tragic image of little Alan Kurdi lying dead on Europe's shoreline has, we are told, awakened Britain's generous nature.
But I'm afraid I don't believe it. I just don't think public opinion shifts like that.
We were either more welcoming of refugees than suggested before the shocking photograph from a Bodrum beach last week, or we remain profoundly sceptical of the motives of many asylum seekers, and nervous of what might follow if we open our doors now.
I suspect it is the latter.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-341768510 -
I can't actually believe that Labour is going to do this. Even now, despite all the evidence to the contrary, theres part of me that thinks they will come to the senses and stop this Corbyn madness...0
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That's about it. But it's too little too late.AndyJS said:The BBC probably hates Corbyn because they're intelligent enough to realise Labour wouldn't have a chance of winning an election with him as leader.
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I want to see angry crowds outside BBC headquarters demanding resignations for this biased coverage, otherwise the Cornynistas are letting down their reputation as being crazies. Hell, restricting it to bitching on Twitter is child's play, I expect more from them if I am to believe Corbyn and his movement are different and transformative.0
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It also depends where you think the priority lies. Saving lives on the ground, or giving a smaller number access to Western living standards.kle4 said:
I'm already despising that argument, as RobD puts it what level would be satisfactory? I actually think it is fair game to argue for more to be taken, but it is not fair game to claim that the scale of the problem has not been noted by the PM, because taking even 1/2 million would not deal with more than a small fraction of the displaced in Syria. It would help a lot more people (in this way at any rate, currently the idea is to help the millions in or around Syria with aid), but against the scale of the problem it is still very small. It is the argument of those who were never going to be satisfied with any number.Tykejohnno said:
And so it begins.AndyJS said:
Argue for more, fine. Don't also imply your arbitrary figure recognizes the scale of the problem unless it in fact does solve the problem, which would would involve taking millions, IMO. It's the difference between simply arguing the PM isn't doing enough, which is a reasonable position to take, and moral grandstanding about it as well for political purposes in some competition to be the most right on.0 -
Is there any evidence that EdM piled up votes in safe seats? From what I can remember the Labour vote didn't really go anywhere.kle4 said:
It would be amusing if Corbyn further increased the vote, but did even worse because even more than Ed M he piled up votes in safe seats and lost them elsewhere. Maybe we'd finally get voting reform as even the victors felt things were getting ridiculous?JWisemann said:
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.0 -
I think a fair number know who Field is and the figurehead of the campaign should be someone who is not divisive but has potential broad appeal, as Field does, he is certainly one of the most respected MPsFrankBooth said:I'd have Boris just ahead of Portillo as who I would fear most. It's been endlessly debated as to whether he's PM material (or seen as it) but leading a campaign like this is made for him. Obviously a figure from the left would provide crossover appeal but I can't see anyone at the moment who stands out. Straw and Reid weren't the most euro-enthusiastic but I doubt they'd be outers. 99% of people don't know who Frank Field is.
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Shame Hezbollah are tied up at the moment.kle4 said:I want to see angry crowds outside BBC headquarters demanding resignations for this biased coverage, otherwise the Cornynistas are letting down their reputation as being crazies. Hell, restricting it to bitching on Twitter is child's play, I expect more from them if I am to believe Corbyn and his movement are different and transformative.
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They're pulling all the stops out on Panorama. It's hilarious viewing for so many reasons.Casino_Royale said:
That's about it. But it's too little too late.AndyJS said:The BBC probably hates Corbyn because they're intelligent enough to realise Labour wouldn't have a chance of winning an election with him as leader.
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Portillo moves to any position where he can be right and show up everyone else to be wrong.Sean_F said:
Oddly, both Iain Dale and Tim Montgomerie have moved left since then, and Michael Portillo has moved right.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was a fan of Portillo and was genuinely confused who to back in 2001, either him or Clarke. But he went out of his way to annoy everyone.HYUFD said:
Indeed, in the Major years Portillo was the darling of the right and an irritant to Major and unpopular with everyone else, remember his 'he who dares wins' speechTheScreamingEagles said:
Frank Field would be the best choice, the other problem with Portillo is that he burnt his bridges with a lot of the Eurosceptic Tories back in 2001 when he lost faith in Thatcherism.HYUFD said:
Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and KippersTheScreamingEagles said:
The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?FrankBooth said:Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?
Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.
Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.
Hard to believe but back in the day, Portillo was considered the most nasty right wing Tory of the day.
There was even a book about it, Were you up for Portillo?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=54rhgUrzOXM
However, by 2001 even Thatcher made clear she was not explicitly backing Portillo when Portillistas tried to claim she thought he was a better option than IDS and then Thatcher backed IDS in a Telegraph letter once he was in the final round with Clarke
(Having said that I am a fan of Portillo, having heard him speak he was a great raconteur and answered a question of mine too)
Remember this piece from Iain Dale and Tim Montgomerie from 2006 absolutely slaughtering Portillo. Montie's going to play a major role in the referendum
http://iaindale.blogspot.co.uk/2006/01/michael-portillo-owes-conservative.html0 -
Just set offkle4 said:I want to see angry crowds outside BBC headquarters demanding resignations for this biased coverage, otherwise the Cornynistas are letting down their reputation as being crazies. Hell, restricting it to bitching on Twitter is child's play, I expect more from them if I am to believe Corbyn and his movement are different and transformative.
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Again, being distracted from your one true calling!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm writing a piece on what the future holds for the Tory party in terms of future fault lines.
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Sh!t - N Ireland gone a goal behind.0
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Next week will be all AV. I'm working on a Scotland thread for Wednesday that should be a humdingerRobD said:
Again, being distracted from your one true calling!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm writing a piece on what the future holds for the Tory party in terms of future fault lines.0 -
What you want is a plot of Labour 2010 share on one axis, and change in share between 2010 and 2015 on the other, sorted by 2010 vote. Then you'll easily see if there is a correlation. AndyJS must have those numbers handy.FrankBooth said:
Is there any evidence that EdM piled up votes in safe seats? From what I can remember the Labour vote didn't really go anywhere.kle4 said:
It would be amusing if Corbyn further increased the vote, but did even worse because even more than Ed M he piled up votes in safe seats and lost them elsewhere. Maybe we'd finally get voting reform as even the victors felt things were getting ridiculous?JWisemann said:
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.0 -
I'm assuming he must have somewhere, if the vote in England went up, as it felt like the number lost by them in England was about the same those gained, but perhaps it is a myth, I haven't looked at the figures closely enough (read, at all).FrankBooth said:
Is there any evidence that EdM piled up votes in safe seats? From what I can remember the Labour vote didn't really go anywhere.kle4 said:
It would be amusing if Corbyn further increased the vote, but did even worse because even more than Ed M he piled up votes in safe seats and lost them elsewhere. Maybe we'd finally get voting reform as even the victors felt things were getting ridiculous?JWisemann said:
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.
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Yes, like the Tories did in 2001. And Labour also gained votes in seats where the Lib Dems lost to the Tories. Basically Labour were gaining in both safe, and hopeless, seats.FrankBooth said:
Is there any evidence that EdM piled up votes in safe seats? From what I can remember the Labour vote didn't really go anywhere.kle4 said:
It would be amusing if Corbyn further increased the vote, but did even worse because even more than Ed M he piled up votes in safe seats and lost them elsewhere. Maybe we'd finally get voting reform as even the victors felt things were getting ridiculous?JWisemann said:
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.0 -
Vive la revolution.bigjohnowls said:
Just set offkle4 said:I want to see angry crowds outside BBC headquarters demanding resignations for this biased coverage, otherwise the Cornynistas are letting down their reputation as being crazies. Hell, restricting it to bitching on Twitter is child's play, I expect more from them if I am to believe Corbyn and his movement are different and transformative.
0 -
Yes, I'll dig the figures in a thread for later on this week.FrankBooth said:
Is there any evidence that EdM piled up votes in safe seats? From what I can remember the Labour vote didn't really go anywhere.kle4 said:
It would be amusing if Corbyn further increased the vote, but did even worse because even more than Ed M he piled up votes in safe seats and lost them elsewhere. Maybe we'd finally get voting reform as even the victors felt things were getting ridiculous?JWisemann said:
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.
For example look at the Liverpool and Manchester seats.0 -
They gained seats in England but that was offset by 40 losses in Scotland.kle4 said:
I'm assuming he must have somewhere, if the vote in England went up, as it felt like the number lost by them in England was about the same those gained, but perhaps it is a myth, I haven't looked at the figures closely enough (read, at all).FrankBooth said:
Is there any evidence that EdM piled up votes in safe seats? From what I can remember the Labour vote didn't really go anywhere.kle4 said:
It would be amusing if Corbyn further increased the vote, but did even worse because even more than Ed M he piled up votes in safe seats and lost them elsewhere. Maybe we'd finally get voting reform as even the victors felt things were getting ridiculous?JWisemann said:
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.0 -
Without looking at the figures, I guess most of the improvement came in London.kle4 said:
I'm assuming he must have somewhere, if the vote in England went up, as it felt like the number lost by them in England was about the same those gained, but perhaps it is a myth, I haven't looked at the figures closely enough (read, at all).FrankBooth said:
Is there any evidence that EdM piled up votes in safe seats? From what I can remember the Labour vote didn't really go anywhere.kle4 said:
It would be amusing if Corbyn further increased the vote, but did even worse because even more than Ed M he piled up votes in safe seats and lost them elsewhere. Maybe we'd finally get voting reform as even the victors felt things were getting ridiculous?JWisemann said:
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.0 -
I assumed every thread would be a 'countdown to the death of the labour party in X' sort of deal, with every third one being 'countdown to revival of the labour party?' for balance. That's why I don't guest edit i suppose.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, I'll dig the figures in a thread for later on this week.FrankBooth said:
Is there any evidence that EdM piled up votes in safe seats? From what I can remember the Labour vote didn't really go anywhere.kle4 said:
It would be amusing if Corbyn further increased the vote, but did even worse because even more than Ed M he piled up votes in safe seats and lost them elsewhere. Maybe we'd finally get voting reform as even the victors felt things were getting ridiculous?JWisemann said:
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.0 -
If Labour can't organise their own leadership election competently, how can they be expected to run the country?0
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We are all stuck down the same rabbit hole it seems. Surreal has nothing on it.kle4 said:I want to see angry crowds outside BBC headquarters demanding resignations for this biased coverage, otherwise the Cornynistas are letting down their reputation as being crazies. Hell, restricting it to bitching on Twitter is child's play, I expect more from them if I am to believe Corbyn and his movement are different and transformative.
0 -
BBC2's documentary on Bletchley Park has just said that HMS Hood was the navy's most modern battleship!0
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You never let us down TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Next week will be all AV. I'm working on a Scotland thread for Wednesday that should be a humdingerRobD said:
Again, being distracted from your one true calling!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm writing a piece on what the future holds for the Tory party in terms of future fault lines.0 -
Normally when I guest edit for a long time, I usually have about 10 prepared pieces ready beforehand.kle4 said:
I assumed every thread would be a 'countdown to the death of the labour party in X' sort of deal, with every third one being 'countdown to revival of the labour party?' for balance. That's why I don't guest edit i suppose.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, I'll dig the figures in a thread for later on this week.FrankBooth said:
Is there any evidence that EdM piled up votes in safe seats? From what I can remember the Labour vote didn't really go anywhere.kle4 said:
It would be amusing if Corbyn further increased the vote, but did even worse because even more than Ed M he piled up votes in safe seats and lost them elsewhere. Maybe we'd finally get voting reform as even the victors felt things were getting ridiculous?JWisemann said:
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.
This time I've only got 3/4 as I'm expecting this stint to be the most turbulent ever.
There's nothing worse than spending hours writing a piece that ends up on the cutting room floor because it has been superseded by events.0 -
Just started up Panorama after the rave reviews it got on here. Champers on standby.0
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@ThomasNashe
I think that's right. Labour's problem is that its vote is improving mainly due to demographic change, not by persuading over swing voters. The non-white share of the population is getting larger, and Labour benefit from that as the economic views of ethnic minorities is substantially to the left. But it also means the non-white share of their party is getting bigger, and that left-wing stance comes to dominate its internal politics as a result. Meanwhile the swing voters in marginals have stayed in the same political space, or even drifted right, and Labour is getting further and further away from them.
Of course, this could switch and the demographic effect could make up for losing white voters if immigration continues at current numbers for the next twenty years. However, I'd like to think conservative governments are smart enough to stop this happening. That's not for sure though: the Republicans failed to do so in the US and now it's way too late for them to do anything about it.0 -
Labour got more votes in England this year than they did in 2005 (and more than the Tories did in 2005 for that matter). They did win 15 net seats in England, too, of course.0
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@TSE – Any chance of resurrecting Night Hawks, when ‘events’ allow?0
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Well obviously, after this leadership fiasco Labour has blown the next election cause everyone will ask themselves exactly this.AndyJS said:If Labour can't organise their own leadership election competently, how can they be expected to run the country?
However, the question now is more profound than who wins the next election (thats already gone) The question now is can Labour survive the next election? Or will they be destroyed across England and Wales as they was in Scotland?0 -
The Tories wiped out the lib dems in England and Scotland, and labour in Scotland, by poisoning them with their own toxicity, I admire them for their absolute shameless deviousness and lack of scruples, if for nothing else.0
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I didn't realise so many Jezlamists even watched the BBC. I thought Press TV was their channel of choice.0
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The Tories did no such thing. It was the voters.JWisemann said:The Tories wiped out the lib dems in England and Scotland, and labour in Scotland, by poisoning them with their own toxicity, I admire them for their absolute shameless deviousness and lack of scruples, if for nothing else.
0 -
I hope pb'ers watched the BBC programme about Corbyn. He is batshit crazy and offering motherhood and apple pie.0
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I suspect the 2015 labour leadership election will as much an issue in 2020 as the 2010 leadership election was this year. It got a passing mention, but was very old news.GIN1138 said:
Well obviously, after this leadership fiasco Labour has blown the next election cause everyone will ask themselves exactly this.AndyJS said:If Labour can't organise their own leadership election competently, how can they be expected to run the country?
However, the question now is more profound than who wins the next election (thats already gone) The question now is can Labour survive the next election? Or will they be destroyed across England and Wales as they was in Scotland?
0 -
You are right - I cannot believe it either. But is it 'Labour' that is voting for him? It's the New Socialist Labour party they are voting for. NewSoc? Poor old Blair (now there is an irony) taking the role of Goldstein.GIN1138 said:I can't actually believe that Labour is going to do this. Even now, despite all the evidence to the contrary, theres part of me that thinks they will come to the senses and stop this Corbyn madness...
0 -
That's nonsense it was built in 1920.frpenkridge said:BBC2's documentary on Bletchley Park has just said that HMS Hood was the navy's most modern battleship!
0 -
The Tories would have still won a majority even if Labour won every seat in Scotland.RobD said:
Still didn't win! Thanks ScotlandJWisemann said:Labour got more votes in England this year than they did in 2005 (and more than the Tories did in 2005 for that matter). They did win 15 net seats in England, too, of course.
0 -
It's a strange type of toxicity that only affects other parties and causes your own vote to go up.0
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But it made the victory so much more satisfying that they lost all but one in their fiefdom. (less satisfying for the future of the union though)TheScreamingEagles said:
The Tories would have still won a majority even if Labour won every seat in Scotland.RobD said:
Still didn't win! Thanks ScotlandJWisemann said:Labour got more votes in England this year than they did in 2005 (and more than the Tories did in 2005 for that matter). They did win 15 net seats in England, too, of course.
0 -
Probably not until the New Year at the earliest.SimonStClare said:@TSE – Any chance of resurrecting Night Hawks, when ‘events’ allow?
After this stint as Guest Editor I'll be reducing my contribution to PB for a while.
I'd like to think about something other than politics for a while.0 -
Tory rebels just defeated Cameron on purdah. Good. It's the governments fault for not limiting the EU's spending.0
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Hang on a minute. This is your last stint as editor, and Corbyn is about to be elected leader. You are Corbyn. QED.TheScreamingEagles said:
Probably not until the New Year at the earliest.SimonStClare said:@TSE – Any chance of resurrecting Night Hawks, when ‘events’ allow?
After this stint as Guest Editor I'll be reducing my contribution to PB for a while.
I'd like to think about something other than politics for a while.
I'll get my coat0 -
Yes, voters who were disgusted at the lib dems and labour standing beside the Tories abandoned them in droves, allowing the Tories through the back door on a pathetic proportion of the vote.RobD said:
The Tories did no such thing. It was the voters.JWisemann said:The Tories wiped out the lib dems in England and Scotland, and labour in Scotland, by poisoning them with their own toxicity, I admire them for their absolute shameless deviousness and lack of scruples, if for nothing else.
0 -
Do you have the slightest inkling of how "toxic" Corbyn is and how much damage that will do to the Labour Party? I hate Labour, and even I don't think you should elect him.JWisemann said:The Tories wiped out the lib dems in England and Scotland, and labour in Scotland, by poisoning them with their own toxicity, I admire them for their absolute shameless deviousness and lack of scruples, if for nothing else.
0 -
More than Labour managed in 2005JWisemann said:
Yes, voters who were disgusted at the lib dems and labour standing beside the Tories abandoned them in droves, allowing the Tories through the back door on a pathetic proportion of the vote.RobD said:
The Tories did no such thing. It was the voters.JWisemann said:The Tories wiped out the lib dems in England and Scotland, and labour in Scotland, by poisoning them with their own toxicity, I admire them for their absolute shameless deviousness and lack of scruples, if for nothing else.
0 -
I'd be willing to bet there are occasions when BBC bias incenses you. You can't hate it when it affects you and be quietly chuffed when it's a hatchet job on someone you don't like - it's totally unprincipled.JEO said:I didn't realise so many Jezlamists even watched the BBC. I thought Press TV was their channel of choice.
0 -
I'm not sure.Jonathan said:
I suspect the 2015 labour leadership election will as much an issue in 2020 as the 2010 leadership election was this year. It got a passing mention, but was very old news.GIN1138 said:
Well obviously, after this leadership fiasco Labour has blown the next election cause everyone will ask themselves exactly this.AndyJS said:If Labour can't organise their own leadership election competently, how can they be expected to run the country?
However, the question now is more profound than who wins the next election (thats already gone) The question now is can Labour survive the next election? Or will they be destroyed across England and Wales as they was in Scotland?
It won't feature is an issue on the door step of course but it will be important for setting the tone of the coming five years.
Remember, Ed Miliband never really recovered with the GBP from the manner in which he won the leadership and particularly from knifing his more popular Brother.
That itself wasn't an issue in the 2015 election, but it meant that from Day One the public never quite took to Ed and as time went on people viewed him more and more negatively.
The 2015 election was probably already lost by the end of 2012 when he'd failed to form a connection with the voters.
The next Labour leader has until the end of 2017 to win the next election, IMO.
Tick. Tock.0 -
So you you are now blaming your own kind for the disaster. Of course the real reason was that Labour had an unelectable leader, something its possibly about to repeat with knobs on.JWisemann said:
Yes, voters who were disgusted at the lib dems and labour standing beside the Tories abandoned them in droves, allowing the Tories through the back door on a pathetic proportion of the vote.RobD said:
The Tories did no such thing. It was the voters.JWisemann said:The Tories wiped out the lib dems in England and Scotland, and labour in Scotland, by poisoning them with their own toxicity, I admire them for their absolute shameless deviousness and lack of scruples, if for nothing else.
0 -
Mike Gapes lying about the rights of EU citizens in this country and UK citizens in the EU post-Brexit. Typical Europhile spreading lies. Noone will be booted out.0
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It isn't the Conservatives' toxicity that makes Labour keep on electing crap leaders.JWisemann said:
Yes, 1 in 4 of the UK population doesn't find the Tories toxic, but they managed to find a way to work the 3/4 who do to their advantage too. Devious.JEO said:It's a strange type of toxicity that only affects other parties and causes your own vote to go up.
0 -
Did you get this exercised when Steven Woolfe lied about Sainsburys?MP_SE said:Mike Gapes lying about the rights of EU citizens in this country and UK citizens in the EU post-Brexit. Typical Europhile spreading lies. Noone will be booted out.
0 -
I'm not chuffed about anything, I was just making a little joke. I haven't seen the Panorama episode yet, so can't comment. I will try to watch it this weekend. Generally Panorama is very objective, although I do think it's inappropriate to broadcast such a thing immediately before an election. I also agree that the BBC is biased against the hard left as much as it is against the right.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd be willing to bet there are occasions when BBC bias incenses you. You can't hate it when it affects you and be quietly chuffed when it's a hatchet job on someone you don't like - it's totally unprincipled.JEO said:I didn't realise so many Jezlamists even watched the BBC. I thought Press TV was their channel of choice.
0 -
If Corbyn makes it to 2020, he will be the election issue - not the manner of his election. If he doesn't get that far, there will be another leadership election to supercede this one.GIN1138 said:
I'm not sure.Jonathan said:
I suspect the 2015 labour leadership election will as much an issue in 2020 as the 2010 leadership election was this year. It got a passing mention, but was very old news.GIN1138 said:
Well obviously, after this leadership fiasco Labour has blown the next election cause everyone will ask themselves exactly this.AndyJS said:If Labour can't organise their own leadership election competently, how can they be expected to run the country?
However, the question now is more profound than who wins the next election (thats already gone) The question now is can Labour survive the next election? Or will they be destroyed across England and Wales as they was in Scotland?
It won't feature is an issue on the door step of course but it will be important for setting the tone of the coming five years.
Remember, Ed Miliband never really recovered with the GBP from the manner in which he won the leadership and particularly from knifing his more popular Brother.
That itself wasn't an issue in the 2015 election, but it meant from from Day One the public never quite took to Ed and as time went on people viewed him more and more negatively.
The 2015 election was probably already lost by the end of 2012 when he'd failed to form a connection with the voters.
The next Labour leader has until the end of 2017 to win the next election, IMO.
Tick. Tock.0 -
@JWisemann
.Labour got more votes in England this year than they did in 2005 (and more than the Tories did in 2005 for that matter). They did win 15 net seats in England, too, of course.'
Let's put you out of your agony,Labour lost very badly.
0 -
If Corbyn makes it to 2020 (BTW I would have thought it's in the Tories interests to repeal the fixed term parliaments act and go the country soon after Cameron stands down. Maybe Autumn 2018 or Spring 2019) it's RIP Labour, IMO.Jonathan said:
If Corbyn makes it to 2020, he will be the election issue - not the manner of his election. If he doesn't get that far, there will be another leadership election to supercede this one.GIN1138 said:
I'm not sure.Jonathan said:
I suspect the 2015 labour leadership election will as much an issue in 2020 as the 2010 leadership election was this year. It got a passing mention, but was very old news.GIN1138 said:
Well obviously, after this leadership fiasco Labour has blown the next election cause everyone will ask themselves exactly this.AndyJS said:If Labour can't organise their own leadership election competently, how can they be expected to run the country?
However, the question now is more profound than who wins the next election (thats already gone) The question now is can Labour survive the next election? Or will they be destroyed across England and Wales as they was in Scotland?
It won't feature is an issue on the door step of course but it will be important for setting the tone of the coming five years.
Remember, Ed Miliband never really recovered with the GBP from the manner in which he won the leadership and particularly from knifing his more popular Brother.
That itself wasn't an issue in the 2015 election, but it meant from from Day One the public never quite took to Ed and as time went on people viewed him more and more negatively.
The 2015 election was probably already lost by the end of 2012 when he'd failed to form a connection with the voters.
The next Labour leader has until the end of 2017 to win the next election, IMO.
Tick. Tock.0 -
Spreading lies doesn't help anyone. Some lies are worse than others.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you get this exercised when Steven Woolfe lied about Sainsburys?MP_SE said:Mike Gapes lying about the rights of EU citizens in this country and UK citizens in the EU post-Brexit. Typical Europhile spreading lies. Noone will be booted out.
I am sure we will hear non-stop from Europhiles that all EU citizens will be kicked out of the UK after a Brexit and also all UK citizens will be booted out of the EU after a Brexit. This will be one of the Stay campaigns few arguments for remaining in the EU. An argument which is completely false.0 -
The election is almost over; not much time left to cast a vote.JEO said:
I'm not chuffed about anything, I was just making a little joke. I haven't seen the Panorama episode yet, so can't comment. I will try to watch it this weekend. Generally Panorama is very objective, although I do think it's inappropriate to broadcast such a thing immediately before an election. I also agree that the BBC is biased against the hard left as much as it is against the right.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd be willing to bet there are occasions when BBC bias incenses you. You can't hate it when it affects you and be quietly chuffed when it's a hatchet job on someone you don't like - it's totally unprincipled.JEO said:I didn't realise so many Jezlamists even watched the BBC. I thought Press TV was their channel of choice.
Doesn't excuse them though.
0 -
Indeed, knobs, bells, the whole caboodle.SquareRoot said:
So you you are now blaming your own kind for the disaster. Of course the real reason was that Labour had an unelectable leader, something its possibly about to repeat with knobs on.JWisemann said:
Yes, voters who were disgusted at the lib dems and labour standing beside the Tories abandoned them in droves, allowing the Tories through the back door on a pathetic proportion of the vote.RobD said:
The Tories did no such thing. It was the voters.JWisemann said:The Tories wiped out the lib dems in England and Scotland, and labour in Scotland, by poisoning them with their own toxicity, I admire them for their absolute shameless deviousness and lack of scruples, if for nothing else.
Corbyn isn't Miliband, and he is certainly not a repeat of Foot who was a patriot, great writer, serious thinker, and more than decent orator. Corbyn is a man whose inclinations are essentially anti-British. I genuinely can not fathom how anybody thinks he is what the Labour Party needs, never mind the country.
0 -
Maybe, but stay or go the 2015 leadership election is unlikely to feature as an issue.GIN1138 said:
If Corbyn makes it to 2020 (BTW I would have thought it's in the Tories interests to repeal the fixed term parliaments act and go the country soon after Cameron stands down. Maybe Autumn 2018 or Spring 2019) it's RIP Labour, IMO.Jonathan said:
If Corbyn makes it to 2020, he will be the election issue - not the manner of his election. If he doesn't get that far, there will be another leadership election to supercede this one.GIN1138 said:
I'm not sure.Jonathan said:
I suspect the 2015 labour leadership election will as much an issue in 2020 as the 2010 leadership election was this year. It got a passing mention, but was very old news.GIN1138 said:
Well obviously, after this leadership fiasco Labour has blown the next election cause everyone will ask themselves exactly this.AndyJS said:If Labour can't organise their own leadership election competently, how can they be expected to run the country?
However, the question now is more profound than who wins the next election (thats already gone) The question now is can Labour survive the next election? Or will they be destroyed across England and Wales as they was in Scotland?
It won't feature is an issue on the door step of course but it will be important for setting the tone of the coming five years.
Remember, Ed Miliband never really recovered with the GBP from the manner in which he won the leadership and particularly from knifing his more popular Brother.
That itself wasn't an issue in the 2015 election, but it meant from from Day One the public never quite took to Ed and as time went on people viewed him more and more negatively.
The 2015 election was probably already lost by the end of 2012 when he'd failed to form a connection with the voters.
The next Labour leader has until the end of 2017 to win the next election, IMO.
Tick. Tock.0 -
john_zims said:
@JWisemann
.Labour got more votes in England this year than they did in 2005 (and more than the Tories did in 2005 for that matter). They did win 15 net seats in England, too, of course.'
Let's put you out of your agony,Labour lost very badly.
If they lost very badly in England, so did the Tories in 2005.
0 -
Didn't he make a mistake rather than lie?TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you get this exercised when Steven Woolfe lied about Sainsburys?MP_SE said:Mike Gapes lying about the rights of EU citizens in this country and UK citizens in the EU post-Brexit. Typical Europhile spreading lies. Noone will be booted out.
A lie is when you pretend to have done something you haven't rather than confuse one person for another isn't it?
0 -
The Smith Institute produced a report which said -ThomasNashe said:
Without looking at the figures, I guess most of the improvement came in London.kle4 said:
I'm assuming he must have somewhere, if the vote in England went up, as it felt like the number lost by them in England was about the same those gained, but perhaps it is a myth, I haven't looked at the figures closely enough (read, at all).FrankBooth said:
Is there any evidence that EdM piled up votes in safe seats? From what I can remember the Labour vote didn't really go anywhere.kle4 said:
It would be amusing if Corbyn further increased the vote, but did even worse because even more than Ed M he piled up votes in safe seats and lost them elsewhere. Maybe we'd finally get voting reform as even the victors felt things were getting ridiculous?JWisemann said:
Lest we forget labour increased its vote in England, by more than the Tories did off the back of stitching up their own mates.notme said:http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/
Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.
It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.
''The report said that Labour’s share of the vote has been in decline since 1997 and that, while its vote share increased slightly in 2015, the extra votes were concentrated in Labour seats, while there was a swing to the Conservatives in Tory-held marginals.''
''It said that while Labour’s middle-class support held up, the party did badly amongst blue collar voters, many of whom went to the Tories or Ukip.''
''Labour also did poorly among homeowners, secured only 28% of white votes (although two-thirds of non-white votes), and, among older voters, it was well behind. The Tories got twice as many votes as Labour amongst the over-55s, who form 40% of the electorate.''
''Paul Hackett, the institute’s director, said the research also showed that Labour has “some worrying blind spots in its political geography”. The party failed “in struggling seaside towns, in suburbia, in new towns, in rural areas and in general in ‘small town Britain’”.''
''with boundary changes it will need to gain more than 100 seats across the country to get a majority in 2020''
(Guardian extract)
Its quite a list.0 -
What would you put Cameron's immigration pledge under ;-)isam said:
Didn't he make a mistake rather than lie?TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you get this exercised when Steven Woolfe lied about Sainsburys?MP_SE said:Mike Gapes lying about the rights of EU citizens in this country and UK citizens in the EU post-Brexit. Typical Europhile spreading lies. Noone will be booted out.
A lie is when you pretend to have done something you haven't rather than confuse one person for another isn't it?0 -
From the view of gaining a majority, the Tories lost badly in 2005. Compared with 2001, it was a triumph!JWisemann said:john_zims said:@JWisemann
.Labour got more votes in England this year than they did in 2005 (and more than the Tories did in 2005 for that matter). They did win 15 net seats in England, too, of course.'
Let's put you out of your agony,Labour lost very badly.
If they lost very badly in England, so did the Tories in 2005.0 -
Spoiler alert.JWisemann said:
Yes, 1 in 4 of the UK population doesn't find the Tories toxic, but they managed to find a way to work the 3/4 who do to their advantage too. Devious.JEO said:It's a strange type of toxicity that only affects other parties and causes your own vote to go up.
Labour lost, badly. With Corbyn, they are going to lose even more badly.0
