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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Five more sleeps to go and Mr Corbyn’s chances of winning are rated at 81%

As at 7.30pm Implied probabilities of Corbyn winning according to Betfair is 81% Cooper 11% Burnham 9% Kendall < 1% pic.twitter.com/f3e4TGUCSe

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kle4

Mainstream media bias, fight the establishment, the people are behind the radical left (except during elections, which don't count, see mainstream media comment), Corbyn forever, hate Tories, especially Red Tories.

kle4

Sorry, just trying to get standard Twitter patter down efficiently.

TheScreamingEagles

I can't believe I've headlined this piece "Five more sleeps to go"

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

I can't believe I've headlined this piece "Five more sleeps to go"

The Jezzanaut rolls on crushing all before it.

The_Apocalypse

FPT

@Disreali Yep, I agree.

@kle4 I think a lot of the comical takes on news do tend to use simplified arguments in general. Given that they are primarily entertainment shows, rather than news shows though I think it's understandable. Lord Sewell doing coke isn't a logical argument to get rid (or rather make it elected) the HoLs but a more coherent one may well get less laughs.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

I can't believe I've headlined this piece "Five more sleeps to go"

You sound like an excited PB Tory on election eve!!

Freggles

If only half have voted there is still a chance of an upset on third and fourth preference votes. He says, holding on to hope.
I reiterate, historically the sorts of people going for Corbyn are the ones who are all mouth and no ballots.

MonikerDiCanio

Any mention of the Iraqi bloodbath can only reinforce Corbyn's massive lead. Panorama remains in the gutter.

kle4

The_Apocalypse said:

@kle4 I think a lot of the comical takes on news do tend to use simplified arguments in general. Given that they are primarily entertainment shows, rather than news shows though I think it's understandable. Lord Sewell doing coke isn't a logical argument to get rid (or rather make it elected) the HoLs but a more coherent one may well get less laughs.

But that's the thing, LWT has specialised in making detailed, coherent and funny arguments - they just chose not to make one there because they cared less about making one, which is laziness. They know it's a topic which means little to the american audience, so they can afford to be lazier since not a single person in the domestic audience will have an opposing view on it.

It's disappointing because I know they can do better when they want to, unless that is their standard operation and I don't notice because I don't know about US civil forfeiture.

SouthamObserver

Shocking BBC bias.

MP_SE

Cameron about to get a bloody nose?

philiph

Freggles said:

If only half have voted there is still a chance of an upset on third and fourth preference votes. He says, holding on to hope.
I reiterate, historically the sorts of people going for Corbyn are the ones who are all mouth and no ballots.

Not sure fourth preferences will effect anything

Floater

Dear god, they really cant be that mad can they?
off topic, did I really see a poster claim our aims and those of Hezbollah match????

ThomasNashe

kle4 said:

Mainstream media bias, fight the establishment, the people are behind the radical left (except during elections, which don't count, see mainstream media comment), Corbyn forever, hate Tories, especially Red Tories.

Yes, it is true that to these people 'red tories' (i.e. that bit of the Labour party who want to win elections) are far more objectionable than actual tories.

kle4

Floater said:

did I really see a poster claim our aims and those of Hezbollah match????

And people say PB is not diverse in its views.

LadyBucket

Given all the rumours re late ballot papers etc, It was interesting to see Yvette Cooper sat next to Harriet Harman again. Is Harriet trying to fix it for a "female leader?"

I hope the PM treats Jeremy Corbyn with respect at PMQs. There is no doubt George Osborne misjudged his PMQs again Hillary Benn. He was too pumped up and made a ridiculous joke. HB's quietness caught him out.

The real macho pissing contest will be between George Osborne and Tom Watson.

JEO

SouthamObserver said:

Shocking BBC bias.

Panorama is actually very impartial in my experience, investigating scandals on left and right. The rest of the BBC should learn from them.

ThomasNashe

Freggles said:

If only half have voted there is still a chance of an upset on third and fourth preference votes. He says, holding on to hope.
I reiterate, historically the sorts of people going for Corbyn are the ones who are all mouth and no ballots.

I'm generally quite pessimistic about this because there does seem to be some kind of collective hysteria that has engulfed even some quite sensible people such as NP, but I do think 81% is over-stating Corbyn's chances for the reason you state.

RobD

JEO said:

SouthamObserver said:

Shocking BBC bias.

Panorama is actually very impartial in my experience, investigating scandals on left and right. The rest of the BBC should learn from them.

What are they reporting on that is so biased?

MarqueeMark

Freggles said:

If only half have voted there is still a chance of an upset on third and fourth preference votes. He says, holding on to hope.
I reiterate, historically the sorts of people going for Corbyn are the ones who are all mouth and no ballots.

I can't believe only half have voted. Have they really sent out so few ballot papers?

Floater

kle4 said:

Floater said:

did I really see a poster claim our aims and those of Hezbollah match????

And people say PB is not diverse in its views.

There is diverse, then there is batshit crazy.

Plato

It seems very at odds with all the PB £3ers. I can't think of anyone saying they're still waiting for theirs

MarqueeMark said:

Freggles said:

If only half have voted there is still a chance of an upset on third and fourth preference votes. He says, holding on to hope.
I reiterate, historically the sorts of people going for Corbyn are the ones who are all mouth and no ballots.

I can't believe only half have voted. Have they really sent out so few ballot papers?

ThomasNashe

On topic, this is just the start. There's over 30 years worth of this stuff for journalists to comb through.

JEO

It is good to see the Aylesbury abusers are getting longer prison sentences than past cases. Although I would prefer them to be old men when they get out of jail.

TheScreamingEagles

MarqueeMark said:

Freggles said:

If only half have voted there is still a chance of an upset on third and fourth preference votes. He says, holding on to hope.
I reiterate, historically the sorts of people going for Corbyn are the ones who are all mouth and no ballots.

I can't believe only half have voted. Have they really sent out so few ballot papers?

In 2010 the turnout was only 70% I think so allowing for the SNAFUS you've really only got 20% left to vote.

Luckyguy1983

I still don't think Corbyn's barmy army will win.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Freggles said:

If only half have voted there is still a chance of an upset on third and fourth preference votes. He says, holding on to hope.
I reiterate, historically the sorts of people going for Corbyn are the ones who are all mouth and no ballots.

I can't believe only half have voted. Have they really sent out so few ballot papers?

In 2010 the turnout was only 70%, so allowing for the SNAFUS you've really only got 20% left to vote.

Given the Corbyn army are relying on getting as many non-voters out as possible at GEs, and get them all voting Labour, it would surely be a poor start to fail to engage the non-voting members in a Labour leadership contest.

SquareRoot

In response to Lucky Guy 1983's "I still don't think Corbyn's barmy army will win"

As it happens, neither do I.. I just have a sneaking suspicion that this so over talked and over analysed election won't produce the worst possible result for Labour.
If it does someone is going to have a lot of problems and it ain't gonna be Dave.

FrankBooth

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

AndyJS

Luckyguy1983 said:

I still don't think Corbyn's barmy army will win.

Are you laying Corbyn in a big way on Betfair?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Plato said:

It seems very at odds with all the PB £3ers. I can't think of anyone saying they're still waiting for theirs

MarqueeMark said:

Freggles said:

If only half have voted there is still a chance of an upset on third and fourth preference votes. He says, holding on to hope.
I reiterate, historically the sorts of people going for Corbyn are the ones who are all mouth and no ballots.

I can't believe only half have voted. Have they really sent out so few ballot papers?

It seems most odd that so many are still waiting.
I sent mine back about 3 weeks ago.

david_herdson

Freggles said:

If only half have voted there is still a chance of an upset on third and fourth preference votes. He says, holding on to hope.
I reiterate, historically the sorts of people going for Corbyn are the ones who are all mouth and no ballots.

I was doing some modelling of transfers earlier and I reckon that if Corbyn picks up 40.5% of the first preference vote and Cooper ends up beating Burnham for second then Corbyn will win. On the other hand, if Burnham beats Cooper then Corbyn needs 42%.

Given that the only polling had Corbyn well into the fifties - and well above 42% even with members - then the only questions are about margin and round of victory. Or they would be were it not for the missing ballots and excluded voters. Even so, 1/4 doesn't seem that wide of the mark and if anything it probably understates his chances (and overstates Burnham's).

HYUFD

Comres has 40% wanting to take more refugees, 57% against (31% fewer, 26% same as now)
http://comres.co.uk/polls/bbc-newsnight-refugee-poll/

isam

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

Portillo is a definite BOO. and I think he would be perfect to lead a campaign

foxinsoxuk

https://twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

TheScreamingEagles

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

TheScreamingEagles

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and Kippers

Luckyguy1983

AndyJS said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I still don't think Corbyn's barmy army will win.

Are you laying Corbyn in a big way on Betfair?

No - I'm more political than betting. By no means would I ever assume to advise anyone else how to bet either.

richardDodd

All of the refugees should go back when it is safe to do so..

The_Apocalypse

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

Luckyguy1983

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Hopefully behind 'Leave and Slam the door' and 'Leave and take the record collection'.

isam

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and Kippers

Portillo all day long

Probably the most media friendly political voice, the son of immigrants, bisexual, dislikes UKIP.. none of the childish insults from the pathetic smearers apply

TheScreamingEagles

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

That's why they can use article 8.

RobD

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

Yeah, seems pretty stupid. If they know they have to leave, there will be no incentive to integrate.

AndyJS

Most migrants and refugees intend to go back to their home country eventually but usually it never happens. They get too used to living in their new society wherever it might be.

Luckyguy1983

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

Is the idea not to protect these people from harm rather than having them permanently?

ThomasNashe

Scotland seem to be making a game of it.

Danny565

isam said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and Kippers

Portillo all day long

Probably the most media friendly political voice, the son of immigrants, bisexual, dislikes UKIP.. none of the childish insults from the pathetic smearers apply

I'm not sure Portillo is at all popular outside of politico circles, especially with Labour voters. He has the kind of Osborne-esque smarminess which puts people off.

Boris would be the jackpot for OUT.

AnneJGP

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

I agree, and find it hard to believe it would withstand legal challenge when the time came, if not before. However, if they are part of family groups that are planning to return if/when possible, that would be different.

And I do think we cannot overlook the possibility that some of these young people may eventually become fighters themselves, in which case it would be right to have left our options open.

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and Kippers

Frank Field would be the best choice, the other problem with Portillo is that he burnt his bridges with a lot of the Eurosceptic Tories back in 2001 when he lost faith in Thatcherism.

Hard to believe but back in the day, Portillo was considered the most nasty right wing Tory of the day.

There was even a book about it, Were you up for Portillo?

The_Apocalypse

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

Yeah, seems pretty stupid. If they know they have to leave, there will be no incentive to integrate.

Exactly - we're essentially creating integration issues down the line, and in the long-term it'll make the public's view of immigration worse than it already is.

@TheScreamingEagles I don't see how article 8 will help them. If we deem it safe to go back to Syria, then surely it'll be seen that their home is there rather than here?

HYUFD

Interesting facts on the new generation of Tory MPs
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2015/09/the-complete-camerons-children-an-analysis-of-all-74-new-conservative-mps.html

MikeK

Panorama doing Jezza great.

TheScreamingEagles

The_Apocalypse said:

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

Yeah, seems pretty stupid. If they know they have to leave, there will be no incentive to integrate.

Exactly - we're essentially creating integration issues down the line, and in the long-term it'll make the public's view of immigration worse than it already is.

@TheScreamingEagles I don't see how article 8 will help them. If we deem it safe to go back to Syria, then surely it'll be seen that their home is there rather than here?

I believe article 8 has been used by an Italian national facing deportation after committing a very serious crime in the UK because he couldn't speak Italian and he was settled in the UK.

HYUFD

isam said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and Kippers

Portillo all day long

Probably the most media friendly political voice, the son of immigrants, bisexual, dislikes UKIP.. none of the childish insults from the pathetic smearers apply

Portillo appeals more to metropolitan voters, and they will be mainly for In

The_Apocalypse

@Luckyguy1983 That's true, but then at the same time one of the biggest problems with immigration in recent years has been a lack of integration by various groups. For those who integrate, it seems harsh to deport them to a country, that for vast majority (or significant portion) of their lives they may have not grown up in. It also gives the refugees little incentive to integrate and to become hard-working members of our society. If anything, it could make some feel already rejected by us.

bigjohnowls

MikeK said:

Panorama doing Jezza great.

Disgraceful attempt to scare people off methinks

richardDodd

I think Europe has been completely hoodwinked into letting an entire army in through the city walls..we wont know for a while but it is certainly in the plans of ISIS..let us see how many of them ntegrate and how many disappear into the Muslim ghettos to be radicalised..then the proverbial will hit the fan ..The record to date is not encouraging

MP_SE

Craig Mackinlay is a skilled orator.

Casino_Royale

I found this clip interesting. Cameron is listened to in silence *precisely until* he announces the number of 20,000. Then he is interrupted and jeered, presumably by Labour and SNPs:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34176941

It really is all about using numbers as a thermometer to measure the extent of their narcissist compassion for them, isn't it?

isam

Danny565 said:

isam said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and Kippers

Portillo all day long

Probably the most media friendly political voice, the son of immigrants, bisexual, dislikes UKIP.. none of the childish insults from the pathetic smearers apply

I'm not sure Portillo is at all popular outside of politico circles, especially with Labour voters. He has the kind of Osborne-esque smarminess which puts people off.

Boris would be the jackpot for OUT.

Small sample, but my Labour voting parents (Dad UKIP 2015), and not at all politically interested friends all think Portillo is the business because of the railway programmes avec Bradshaw

Smart, quite handsome, beautifully spoken, lovely way about him.

I have heard that he isn't such a great guy in real life, but what does that matter?!

Subjective of course, but as an OUTer I would love him to have a prominent role in the BOO camp

The_Apocalypse

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

Yeah, seems pretty stupid. If they know they have to leave, there will be no incentive to integrate.

Exactly - we're essentially creating integration issues down the line, and in the long-term it'll make the public's view of immigration worse than it already is.

@TheScreamingEagles I don't see how article 8 will help them. If we deem it safe to go back to Syria, then surely it'll be seen that their home is there rather than here?

I believe article 8 has been used by an Italian national facing deportation after committing a very serious crime in the UK because he couldn't speak Italian and he was settled in the UK.

Ah, okay. In that case, then I'd expect a number of Syrians may try to use article 8 down the line. I wouldn't blame them.

ThomasNashe

bigjohnowls said:

MikeK said:

Panorama doing Jezza great.

Disgraceful attempt to scare people off methinks

You're only allowed to use 'methinks' in relation to Burnham.

AndyJS

The reason why 57% don't want an increase in migrants or refugees is not because people in the UK are selfish bastards. It's because we have already welcomed millions of people over the last 20 years while Germany refused to allow eastern Europeans to work in their country between 2004 and 2011. Their population is in decline, ours has grown by 10% since 1995.

Tykejohnno

bigjohnowls said:

MikeK said:

Panorama doing Jezza great.

Disgraceful attempt to scare people off methinks

New labour types at the beeb.

Artist

ORB poll for Independent

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-contest-twothirds-of-people-think-jeremy-corbyn-would-be-unlikely-to-win-next-general-election-10490294.html

Improve/harm Labour's chances at next election
Burnham 30/16
Cooper 23/19
Kendall 19/17
Corbyn 29/48

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

Call me a cynic, but I think it's one of those Cameron promises that he never intends to keep. It is said to keep various factions quiet until the crisis has passed.

bigjohnowls

BBC wheeling out the Blairites desperately trying to save New Labour.

The BBC hates Socialists

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

Yeah, seems pretty stupid. If they know they have to leave, there will be no incentive to integrate.

Exactly - we're essentially creating integration issues down the line, and in the long-term it'll make the public's view of immigration worse than it already is.

@TheScreamingEagles I don't see how article 8 will help them. If we deem it safe to go back to Syria, then surely it'll be seen that their home is there rather than here?

I believe article 8 has been used by an Italian national facing deportation after committing a very serious crime in the UK because he couldn't speak Italian and he was settled in the UK.

Was that the lad that stabbed the headmaster to death?

JWisemann

Floater said:

Dear god, they really cant be that mad can they?
off topic, did I really see a poster claim our aims and those of Hezbollah match????

Yes - Hezbollah want ISIS destroyed, and so, we claim, do we. The west has made peace with Iran now and the Shia forces in Syria and Iraq have to be seen as the preferable option to genocidal Sunni extremism funded by Cameron's pals in Saudi Arabia.

MikeK

Artist said:

ORB poll for Independent

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-contest-twothirds-of-people-think-jeremy-corbyn-would-be-unlikely-to-win-next-general-election-10490294.html

Improve/harm Labour's chance at next election
Burnham 30/16
Cooper 23/19
Kendall 19/17
Corbyn 29/48

Who the hell is ORB?

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and Kippers

Frank Field would be the best choice, the other problem with Portillo is that he burnt his bridges with a lot of the Eurosceptic Tories back in 2001 when he lost faith in Thatcherism.

Hard to believe but back in the day, Portillo was considered the most nasty right wing Tory of the day.

There was even a book about it, Were you up for Portillo?

Indeed, in the Major years Portillo was the darling of the right and an irritant to Major and unpopular with everyone else, remember his 'he who dares wins' speech
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54rhgUrzOXM

However, by 2001 even Thatcher made clear she was not explicitly backing Portillo when Portillistas tried to claim she thought he was a better option than IDS and then Thatcher backed IDS in a Telegraph letter once he was in the final round with Clarke

(Having said that I am a fan of Portillo, having heard him speak he was a great raconteur and answered a question of mine too)

The_Apocalypse

AnneJGP said:

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

I agree, and find it hard to believe it would withstand legal challenge when the time came, if not before. However, if they are part of family groups that are planning to return if/when possible, that would be different.

And I do think we cannot overlook the possibility that some of these young people may eventually become fighters themselves, in which case it would be right to have left our options open.

True, there could be family groups that want to return. Most of the refugees have stayed within the Middle East. On the potential of some of them to become fighters - in that case, surely the government could only deport them if they commit a serious crime, as opposed to making it default once you turn 18?

bigjohnowls

This Panorama programme is a fookin disgrace.

How can this be broadcast in the middle of the leadership election.

ThomasNashe

isam said:

Danny565 said:

isam said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and Kippers

Portillo all day long

Probably the most media friendly political voice, the son of immigrants, bisexual, dislikes UKIP.. none of the childish insults from the pathetic smearers apply

I'm not sure Portillo is at all popular outside of politico circles, especially with Labour voters. He has the kind of Osborne-esque smarminess which puts people off.

Boris would be the jackpot for OUT.

Small sample, but my Labour voting parents (Dad UKIP 2015), and not at all politically interested friends all think Portillo is the business because of the railway programmes avec Bradshaw

Smart, quite handsome, beautifully spoken, lovely way about him.

I have heard that he isn't such a great guy in real life, but what does that matter?!

Subjective of course, but as an OUTer I would love him to have a prominent role in the BOO camp

A long time ago when he was Secretary of State for Employment (and also a right-wing ogre to boot) I remember civil servants who had dealings with him telling me he was absolutely charming (and in marked contrast to Michael Forsyth who was also a minister in the department).

AndyJS

The BBC probably hates Corbyn because they're intelligent enough to realise Labour wouldn't have a chance of winning an election with him as leader.

TheScreamingEagles

Just updated the thread header with some new ORB polling

AnneJGP

isam said:

Danny565 said:

isam said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and Kippers

Portillo all day long

Probably the most media friendly political voice, the son of immigrants, bisexual, dislikes UKIP.. none of the childish insults from the pathetic smearers apply

I'm not sure Portillo is at all popular outside of politico circles, especially with Labour voters. He has the kind of Osborne-esque smarminess which puts people off.

Boris would be the jackpot for OUT.

Small sample, but my Labour voting parents (Dad UKIP 2015), and not at all politically interested friends all think Portillo is the business because of the railway programmes avec Bradshaw

Smart, quite handsome, beautifully spoken, lovely way about him.

I have heard that he isn't such a great guy in real life, but what does that matter?!

Subjective of course, but as an OUTer I would love him to have a prominent role in the BOO camp

Can't speak from personal acquaintance with him, but it did seem to me that losing his seat was the best thing that ever happened to him. As a minister he was horridly brassy & prideful; afterwards he became (or seemed to become) more human.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just updated the thread header with some new ORB polling

Thanks TSE and in the final week a final poll has Burnham seen as most likely to improve Labour's election chances on +14%, Cooper on +4%, Kendall on +2%. Corbyn has a net negative on -19%

Plato

@bigjohnowls It quite a hatchet job, isn't it.

The whole tone is very dismissive and the presenter's whole manner is This Man Is A Loony.

Now I happen to agree with him, but that's not the point.

How can this be broadcast in the middle of the leadership election.

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and Kippers

Frank Field would be the best choice, the other problem with Portillo is that he burnt his bridges with a lot of the Eurosceptic Tories back in 2001 when he lost faith in Thatcherism.

Hard to believe but back in the day, Portillo was considered the most nasty right wing Tory of the day.

There was even a book about it, Were you up for Portillo?

Indeed, in the Major years Portillo was the darling of the right and an irritant to Major and unpopular with everyone else, remember his 'he who dares wins' speech

www.youtube.com/watch?v=54rhgUrzOXM

However, by 2001 even Thatcher made clear she was not explicitly backing Portillo when Portillistas tried to claim she thought he was a better option than IDS and then Thatcher backed IDS in a Telegraph letter once he was in the final round with Clarke

(Having said that I am a fan of Portillo, having heard him speak he was a great raconteur and answered a question of mine too)

I was a fan of Portillo and was genuinely confused who to back in 2001, either him or Clarke. But he went out of his way to annoy everyone.

Remember this piece from Iain Dale and Tim Montgomerie from 2006 absolutely slaughtering Portillo. Montie's going to play a major role in the referendum

http://iaindale.blogspot.co.uk/2006/01/michael-portillo-owes-conservative.html

JosiasJessop

According to Guido, the young man who was recently surprised to find his body parts spread across the desert was once photographed with Ed Balls.

That's not the interesting bit. The interesting bit was a claim that at that time, back in 2009, the young man allegedly stated he wanted to become Britain's first Asian PM.

If this is right (and possibly even if it is not), we need to ask how a young man with such intent could, just six years later, turn into what appears to be an enemy of the state. If we can find out the reasons, we might be able to dissuade others taking the same route.

kle4

Given the current climate of emphasizing a (what I personally feel to be a real, if not as extreme as being made out) shift in public attitudes, I confess to being a little surprised to see this linked from the front page of the BBC (for all I think some Tories vastly overdo how biased it is, there are some issues I am surprised to see certain views permitted even by individuals).

The tragic image of little Alan Kurdi lying dead on Europe's shoreline has, we are told, awakened Britain's generous nature.

But I'm afraid I don't believe it. I just don't think public opinion shifts like that.

We were either more welcoming of refugees than suggested before the shocking photograph from a Bodrum beach last week, or we remain profoundly sceptical of the motives of many asylum seekers, and nervous of what might follow if we open our doors now.

I suspect it is the latter.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34176851

kle4

2/3 thinks Corbyn cannot win a majority? Lower than I would have thought, told you he will do better than expected (though if he does, however temporarily, lead in the polls say, let us not forget that some Tories did in fact say he would weeks ago, that any opposition will have such a period at some point)

TheScreamingEagles

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

Yeah, seems pretty stupid. If they know they have to leave, there will be no incentive to integrate.

Exactly - we're essentially creating integration issues down the line, and in the long-term it'll make the public's view of immigration worse than it already is.

@TheScreamingEagles I don't see how article 8 will help them. If we deem it safe to go back to Syria, then surely it'll be seen that their home is there rather than here?

I believe article 8 has been used by an Italian national facing deportation after committing a very serious crime in the UK because he couldn't speak Italian and he was settled in the UK.

Was that the lad that stabbed the headmaster to death?

Yup, it wasn't the key reason he stayed but one of the main reasons underpinning why he wasn't deported.

philiph

bigjohnowls said:

This Panorama programme is a fookin disgrace.

How can this be broadcast in the middle of the leadership election.

Lord help us if it's only half way through.

Other religious leaders are available

isam

AnneJGP said:

isam said:

Danny565 said:

isam said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and Kippers

Portillo all day long

Probably the most media friendly political voice, the son of immigrants, bisexual, dislikes UKIP.. none of the childish insults from the pathetic smearers apply

I'm not sure Portillo is at all popular outside of politico circles, especially with Labour voters. He has the kind of Osborne-esque smarminess which puts people off.

Boris would be the jackpot for OUT.

Small sample, but my Labour voting parents (Dad UKIP 2015), and not at all politically interested friends all think Portillo is the business because of the railway programmes avec Bradshaw

Smart, quite handsome, beautifully spoken, lovely way about him.

I have heard that he isn't such a great guy in real life, but what does that matter?!

Subjective of course, but as an OUTer I would love him to have a prominent role in the BOO camp

Can't speak from personal acquaintance with him, but it did seem to me that losing his seat was the best thing that ever happened to him. As a minister he was horridly brassy & prideful; afterwards he became (or seemed to become) more human.

Yes, it does seem that way. As I say, none of my friends are political, but they all seem to know Portillo and think of him as a cultured smoothie! The more I read this thread, the more I think he would be the perfect choice to play a lead role in a BOO campaign.. the reverse indicators are flagging it up!

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

Who's going to lead the referendum out campaign?

Nigel Lawson is onside but surely too old now. Boris if he makes his mind up? Michael Portillo seems to be flirting with out so what about a comeback? He might have some explaining to do given he's on record as saying a referendum would be a bad idea. I can't think of many people on the left who are already declared to be on the out side.

The man who lost a safe Tory seat in 1997 and finished third in a two horse race in 2001?

Leave could finish third in the referendum at that rate.

Frank Field would be the most shrewd choice, someone who can appeal to both traditional Labour voters, Tories and Kippers

Frank Field would be the best choice, the other problem with Portillo is that he burnt his bridges with a lot of the Eurosceptic Tories back in 2001 when he lost faith in Thatcherism.

Hard to believe but back in the day, Portillo was considered the most nasty right wing Tory of the day.

There was even a book about it, Were you up for Portillo?

Indeed, in the Major years Portillo was the darling of the right and an irritant to Major and unpopular with everyone else, remember his 'he who dares wins' speech

www.youtube.com/watch?v=54rhgUrzOXM

However, by 2001 even Thatcher made clear she was not explicitly backing Portillo when Portillistas tried to claim she thought he was a better option than IDS and then Thatcher backed IDS in a Telegraph letter once he was in the final round with Clarke

(Having said that I am a fan of Portillo, having heard him speak he was a great raconteur and answered a question of mine too)

I was of Portillo and was genuinely confused who to back in 2001, either him or Clarke. But he went out of his way to annoy everyone.

Remember this piece from Iain Dale and Tim Montgomerie from 2006 absolutely slaughtering Portillo. Montie's going to play a major role in the referendum

http://iaindale.blogspot.co.uk/2006/01/michael-portillo-owes-conservative.html

Indeed, I think in many ways Portillo was using the Tories as a vehicle to become PM (in his youth he had a poster of Harold Wilson on his wall) and is still bitter he never got the leadership he dedicated so much of his life to achieve

Plato

I've been trying to think of the format Panorama is using for this = it's a cross between Scientology and Are You Trapped In A Cult?

AndyJS

https://www.twitter.com/SarahChampionMP/status/640925550371041280

Plato

It's an action packed fest of all the worst bits. This could've been twice as long, talk about a drive-by shooting.

philiph said:

bigjohnowls said:

This Panorama programme is a fookin disgrace.

How can this be broadcast in the middle of the leadership election.

Lord help us if it's only half way through.

Other religious leaders are available

JWisemann

All these pointless polls tell us is that people watch and read news that has been consistently telling us that Corbyn is unelectable and some of it sinks in. Also I don't think many people think anyone could lead labour to a majority next time, for a myriad of reasons. Interesting that Corbyn pretty much ties for top position on the positive side of things.

Sean_F

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/640930166810800128

Wow! Is this true?

Only in the sense if it was safe to send them back to Syria. So if Syria is like it is now, then no.

PS - Is that the Paddy Pantsdown who back in April was urging Special Forces to sink migrant carrying boats?

http://bit.ly/1DMHmiN

That's still pretty shocking. I feel sorry for children who may go on to attend British schools, and integrate in our society only to find that age 18 they can no longer be a part of it.

Nobody's going to sent back if the place is in turmoil.

notme

http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/

Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.

It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.

Tykejohnno

AndyJS said:

https://www.twitter.com/SarahChampionMP/status/640925550371041280

And so it begins.

JWisemann

Not watching the panorama thing as BBC news output is about as credible as Pravda these days, from the sound of it they are straight back on with Project Fear again, as threats to the establishment start to accumulate in coming years the propaganda boys are going to be busy bunnies!

flightpath01

kle4 said:

Given the current climate of emphasizing a (what I personally feel to be a real, if not as extreme as being made out) shift in public attitudes, I confess to being a little surprised to see this linked from the front page of the BBC (for all I think some Tories vastly overdo how biased it is, there are some issues I am surprised to see certain views permitted even by individuals).

The tragic image of little Alan Kurdi lying dead on Europe's shoreline has, we are told, awakened Britain's generous nature.

But I'm afraid I don't believe it. I just don't think public opinion shifts like that.

We were either more welcoming of refugees than suggested before the shocking photograph from a Bodrum beach last week, or we remain profoundly sceptical of the motives of many asylum seekers, and nervous of what might follow if we open our doors now.

I suspect it is the latter.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34176851

Bodrum. Thats not where they were going to - that was were they were trying to leave from. Just how much of that strange fact has seeped into the conciousness of the public?

HYUFD

My father tonight 'If Jeremy Corbyn ever becomes PM I will emigrate!'

TheScreamingEagles

notme said:

http://labourlist.org/2015/09/labour-lost-because-they-had-no-clear-alternative-to-tory-austerity-corbyn-holds-final-regional-rally-in-key-margina/

Someone needs to break it to Labourlist that the game has changed. In 2010 Nuneaton was a key marginal with a 2,000 Con majority, Labour would be expecting it to fall in their lap. Now it is a 5,000 Con majority. It is no longer a 'key marginal'.

It's a mindset they need to get into. They went backwards a few months ago, and they need to work out why.

You can add places like Warwickshire North, Stockton South to that list