politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This might end the mini Cooper surge and the Burnham slump
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This might end the mini Cooper surge and the Burnham slump
The head of Liz Kendall’s campaign has suggested that Labour supporters will give the party’s leadership to Jeremy Corbyn if they vote for Yvette Cooper.
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William Hill @sharpeangle: More money for Corbyn, including £2000 bet from Berkshire customer, at 2/7. Now 1/4; 9/2 Cooper; 8/1 Burnham; 100/1 Kendall. #Corbyn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcAeFCO6C04
Mr. Moses, there's an off-chance her migration idiocy will be the issue that defines Merkel (though the eurozone sovereign debt crisis could yet outshine it).
On-topic: what a shower. They're picking from Arcadius, Honorius and Elagabalus.
It also makes me laugh how the press continually paint run-off voting as "complex". Makes you wonder...
However I do think Osborne has his contribution to make, Since Cameron can;t make a tour of the refugee camps sending Osborne could help solve the crisis. I reckon no Syrian would seek to come to the Uk once they'd met him, he'd probably put them off Germany to. Why are we not deploying him ?
Did the Osbornes wrong your family a few centuries ago or something? I know how you Irish hold a grudge
I'm all green fortunately whatever the result (unless somehow David Miliband or Alan Johnson win)
Of course I'd have a different view if I were a different nationality. If I were a South Osettian I might not have a very nice view of Georgia, and if I were from the Donbass, I probably wouldn't have a very nice view of Ukraine. @richardDodd was I believe discussing a threat to the UK's way of life.
Since World War I (as an arbitrary point), I believe our physical health and mental prowess have declined, our culture has been weakened, our military has been decimated, our economy eviscerated, our sovereignty eroded, our liberties removed, and rational thought is on the verge of extinction. None of that has been done by the Russians. By and large we've embraced every step on our road to ruin.
* By the way, what an introverted collective Labour w**k that program is.
I recall you tipping Kirsty Gallagher some time ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2NGqI6FqeQ
What I find interesting is the POV expressed on PB since May 2015, that the British public is always, or nearly always right. This idea also indirectly implies that the people of other countries - Germany specifically - do not have such powers of analysis, and are wrong. Because, at least by the findings of this poll - the idea expressed that the 'majority' of the German public are sceptical, or against Merkel's policy on the subject is wrong. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/for-refugees-its-destination-germany/2015/09/05/c5bac7aa-53f5-11e5-b225-90edbd49f362_story.html
The Germans, to a far greater extent than the British, the French or others, have opened their hearts — and wallets. According to a poll commissioned by the German public broadcaster ARD and released on Thursday, 88 percent said they would donate money or clothes to refugees or have already done so, while 67 percent said they would volunteer to help. Only 33 percent of those asked said Germany should take less refugees, compared with 37 percent who said they could take in as many as there are now, and 22 percent who said Germany should take more.
This suggests that those willingly to help the refugees in Germany that we've seen in our media - are not merely a small minority of Germans, but in fact representative.
I would say the British public, like the people of many other countries - sometimes are right, and other times are quite wrong - there is nothing about the British take on matters that makes us more wise or prescient than others.
And on Ben Carson, he comes across as just as nutty as Trump tbh - having said abortion is the number one killer of Black Americans, and comparing the loss of baby seals to abortion, calling it the 'wanton slaughter of millions'.
http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Ben_Carson_Abortion.htm
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2015/08/ben-carson-abortions-are-main-cause-black-deaths
I would disagree with @TSE's thread yesterday re Cable and Osborne in one way and one way only - I think whoever wins this leadership election, the Tories are already taking 2020 for granted and therefore quite a number of candidates will be pondering whether it is worth going for the leadership (bearing in mind too that a great many will anticipate a long period in opposition after a long period in government - so it may be now or never for Javid and Patel).
It is also likely to lead to considerable hubris and bad government, but that's a bit of a case of plus ça change plus c'est la même chose for this country.
And with that, good night and have a good week.
We're living longer than ever. I'm not sure how we'd measure 'mental prowess'.
"Culture weakened"
Define the culture, and how it has been weakened.
"Military decimated"
Just five decades ago we were spending around 10% of our GDP on the military. Do you wish to go back to those sort of levels? If not, what levels?
"Economy eviscerated"
Please expand.
"Rational thought on the verge of extinction"
Again, expand.
It does sound a little like you don't like the modern world, and want to get off the ride. No wonder you like Putin.
If the Germans want to open their doors to 800,000 refugees that's their right and Merkel seems like the right politician for them. But it doesn't mean that they should expect others to do the same.
Decent outsiders (aka the trading bets)
Daniel O'Donnell as he some very passionate votes who might disproportionately for him.
Iwan Thomas could get the bloc Welsh Vote and sportsmen do have a good history on strictly.
Ainsley Harriott and Jeremy Vine could be this year's John Sargeant.
I'm on team Kirstie Gallacher, I've seen her in real life, I nearly tripped up over my tongue. She could turn Sir Elton John into a heterosexual
Alesha Dixon did well [though making her a judge was just stupid].
On the other contest: I concur Corbyn will win. It's crazy, but that's how daft Labour MPs have been. It's Caligula following Tiberius.
A heart warming article. What a wretched government we have.
Bravo for Merkel and the Germans.
It's an expression of the principle of the wisdom of crowds, an economic theory developed around a decade ago.
Essentially, the average is more likely to be 'correct' than any individual point
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
In the case of policy decisions, it is perfectly possible for different decisions to be appropriate for Germany and for the UK, reflecting, inter alia, their history, population density, demographic trends, infrastructure capacity, etc.
Essentially, Merkel's decision is right in the context of German history; while the GBP are right in their view that immigration has been too extensive and poorly integrated over the last decade and more for a new wave of immigration to be the right solution for the country
2. I see culture as a set of shared beliefs and values that bind us as a nation. You don't agree this has weakened? As for how, decline of organised religion and failure to assimilate waves of immigration would seem to be two.
3. I take it then that you accept my point.
4. I refer you to the balance of trade.
I don't want to get off any ride, I want the ride to take a turn in the right direction. We're so terribly sure that we're much cleverer than our ancestors, but we're living through nothing they wouldn't have recognised or had a name for. I'm a historian - everything goes in circles, there's nothing new under the sun. Sadly people these days don't realise that.
It's validating those who bypass the regulations and laws on migration/refugee status and encouraging more to make dangerous journeys, whilst enriching people smugglers.
The argument for it appears to be:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RybNI0KB1bg
A big part of this is history. We have centuries of representative governance in a gradual evolution into democracy. This has cause the British public to be thoughtful and prudent. Germany has only had representative governance for three generations, even less in the East, and came to it suddenly after constitutional cataclysms of fascism and communism. Their collective psyche is still suffering from the aftershocks of this. Careful prudence is thrown out the window when it comes to visceral reactions to things like inflation, or atoning for their Nazi past.
'A heart warming article. What a wretched government we have. '
Are you going to be staying in France so Syrian refugees can use your flat in Soho ?
Or is it just more vacuous moral posturing ?
I personally think that what Cameron is doing is right - but then I've always been a fan of targeted interventions rather than grand gestures. I think that also fits with the British mindset.
But then, I suppose Germany would be of the view that if on balance most of Europe supported something, then it's ok to ride roughshod over the others who are not, and since they usually can work something out with France, which will sweep along a few undecideds and those who go with the winning option for the sake of unity, plus the natural EU supporters, they generally feel what they want will, in the end, be the accepted view of Europe anyway so who cares if there is pushback initially. They'll fall in to line, can be ignored, or outvoted.
The Rotherham disgrace has only highlighted the dangers of disparate cultures being allowed to exist, with enclaves rather than integration.
Plus, we already have high levels of immigration which makes people reluctant for us to take more.
And we're the end of the chain. So, migrants claiming to be refugees have to travel through half a dozen or more safe countries before deciding they're ready to settle down (which is migration, not fleeing danger).
Oh, and we opted out of Schengen. And having a German Chancellor trying to dictate UK policy is never going to be popular.
Edited extra bit: and we're spending more than twice the German amount in aid to help those who've fled the Syrian conflict.
how come you werent saying that in June and Grexit ?
I understand that change can sometimes be scary, but then there is good change and bad change. Surely, for many not being in the EU would be a good change - so why wouldn't good change be welcomed?
and
http://www.maxroser.com/gains-for-all-life-expectancy-by-age/
Although IANAE, I also disagree with the rest of your conclusions about health as well. Allergies may have increased, but is that an actual increase or just an increase in reporting? And on the other hand, we are now protected against many diseases that were prevalent just a few decades ago.
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On another point: "we're living through nothing they wouldn't have recognised or had a name for."
Really? My great-granddad lived from something like 1870 to 1965. In that time we had the advent of radio, electric goods, commonplace indoor plumbing, the telephone, the internal combustion engine and cars, planes, space travel, and masses more. It was a period of incredibly compressed change, both technologically and socially (and it is difficult to separate the two). He managed to evolve and mostly cope with these changes. I'm not sure his grandfather would have recognised the world of 1965.
On a more general point: what area / period of history do you specialise in?
The established parties and broadcast media are very much in favour, though print media, whilst split, is mostly against.
People tend naturally to the status quo unless there's a compelling pull or push factor (or factors). Immigration, hot on the heels of the eurozone woe [still unresolved], *might* be that factor, though I remain to be convinced. I think lots of those expressing their discontent now will still vote In when the time comes, unless things worsen.
The very different attitudes to the EU as a result of circumstance shows the greater wisdom of the British over the Germans that I am talking about. The British can assess the European Union on a sensible pragmatic basis, where the Germans leap at the thing irrationally as a way to apologise to the rest of Europe for their history. Now that the Nazis are beginning to fall out of living memory, Euroscepticism is beginning to creep in, but it will need Merkel's generation of politicians to be replaced before it starts making major headway.
Corbyn spoke easily and comfortably, without note. He refers to himself in the third person throughout, which sounds odd. But the mood was that he could have said anything, and he'd have had to wait for the applause to die down.
He said that EM was much too simialar to the Tories. 'We won't make that mistake in 2020. We'll offer a new, socialist approach.'
He did mention UKIP and the Green voters, as potential supporters for 'our new socialist Labour party'.
Lack of certainty among the masses is one of the ways people and groups in seemingly weak positions are able to forge a path through a mess, carry people along with them down, in hindsight, dangerous paths, and take advantage of matters to succeed when the array of forces against them seems too much for them to prevail against. Those driving the EU are not beset by doubts or second thoughts, but the public are, and the EU opponents are not, at present, united enough to present such a confident force as to remove doubts from the public.
For the longest time I was not happy with the EU but felt we'd probably be worse off outside, so that was that, but eventually I just got so godsdamned sick of their crap. I still don't know we'd be better off, but I know we'd probably feel worse if we stayed in regardless.
I might well have been less forthcoming with my own vote last election had it not been a delight to oust Balls.
Your report confirms exactly what I said:
'Therefore, between 1841 and 1900 the modal age at death was much higher than the other two averages; modal age at death in 1841 was 71 for males and 77 for females and in 1900 it was 68 years and 73 years respectively.'
According to the report it's now 85 and 89. With over a century advances in medical science, medical care, and lifestyle improvement, we've added just over 10 years of what for many will be a confused and illness-plagued later life. We're ageing and getting more infirm at more or less the same rate as we ever were.
No it's not an increase in reporting, it's an increase.
Here's cancer: http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/incidence/all-cancers-combined#heading-One
Asthma (source says it reached highest level in 90's): http://www.asthma.org.uk/asthma-facts-and-statistics
Allergies: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2111268/
The first ever heart attack in America was in 1912 you know.
I'm actually a marketing manager but my undergraduate degree was in Modern History, Economic History and Politics.
Social trends too - is there anything we're seeing with our binge drinking culture that wasn't already depicted in Hogarth's 'Gin Lane'? http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/picture/2012/sep/12/william-hogarth-gin-lane
Everything has happened before, sadly people think history stopped and we are somehow different. Future generations will regard us as one of the most unutterably stupid generations in the history of mankind.