politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn: Winning the election but losing the argument?

HurstLlama said:

Philip_Thompson said:

That's true of every majority government regardless of voting system and is a feature of Parliamentary governments, or just governments in general. Does the Israeli government elected by pure PR care what the Joint List (and thus the Arab minority) want?

Fair go, Mr. Thompson, I was thinking of your point that in voting for the SNP the Scots were voting for the party best able to bring home the pork to Scotland. In my view voting for the party least able to affect the deliberations of the government was actually going to do the reverse.

antifrank said:

If Jeremy Corbyn wins, who might serve as shadow Foreign Secretary? Given his views, this looks like the most challenging post to fill.

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Reuters is a bit more circumspect about Tsipras' plans:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/20/uk-eurozone-greece-tsipras-idUKKCN0QP16020150820

It'll be interesting to see who tops the polls. Will it be New SYRIZA, Old SYRIZA, or New Democracy.

Tsipiras remains personally popular, so I suspect he will win. But this is Greece, so who knows..

Which party is at the Centaur of Greek politics?

Dunno but Labour is beyond Satyr right now.

(waits for another round of shocking Greek puns)

I think the Greeks will have lost their marbles if they vote Syrizia back into government.

Artist said:

antifrank said:

If Jeremy Corbyn wins, who might serve as shadow Foreign Secretary? Given his views, this looks like the most challenging post to fill.

Positions to avoid in a Corbyn shadow cabinet:
Shadow Chancellor
Chief secretary to the Treasury
Defence
Foreign secretary
Business secretary
Northern Ireland

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Reuters is a bit more circumspect about Tsipras' plans:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/20/uk-eurozone-greece-tsipras-idUKKCN0QP16020150820

It'll be interesting to see who tops the polls. Will it be New SYRIZA, Old SYRIZA, or New Democracy.

Tsipiras remains personally popular, so I suspect he will win. But this is Greece, so who knows..

Which party is at the Centaur of Greek politics?

Dunno but Labour is beyond Satyr right now.

(waits for another round of shocking Greek puns)

I think the Greeks will have lost their marbles if they vote Syrizia back into government.

You mean they're on the Rhodes to Nowhere?

foxinsoxuk said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Reuters is a bit more circumspect about Tsipras' plans:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/20/uk-eurozone-greece-tsipras-idUKKCN0QP16020150820

It'll be interesting to see who tops the polls. Will it be New SYRIZA, Old SYRIZA, or New Democracy.

Tsipiras remains personally popular, so I suspect he will win. But this is Greece, so who knows..

Which party is at the Centaur of Greek politics?

Dunno but Labour is beyond Satyr right now.

(waits for another round of shocking Greek puns)

I think the Greeks will have lost their marbles if they vote Syrizia back into government.

You mean they're on the Rhodes to Nowhere?

Is it Kos they lack con-Crete proposals for a way forward?

John Blackwillow ‏@blackwillow1 5m5 minutes ago
I think the same, the #LabourPurge will simply confirm what we already know. The blairites want power, by any means

watford30 said:

williamglenn said:

HurstLlama said:

Really now the idea that the Foreign Sec is one of the big four jobs of government is a nonsense. Its more a placement for senior people who, cannot for party purposes, be dumped to see out their time comfortably with lots of first class travel.

I think it would revert to being a big job the moment someone with stature was appointed. Going back over the previous Foreign Secretaries - Hammond, Hague, Miliband, Beckett, Straw, Cook, Rifkind - you have to get all the way to Hurd before encountering anyone who looked like a statesman.

Quite right about Douglas Hurd. They don't make them like that anymore.

Speedy said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Speedy said:

Artist said:

antifrank said:

If Jeremy Corbyn wins, who might serve as shadow Foreign Secretary? Given his views, this looks like the most challenging post to fill.

Positions to avoid in a Corbyn shadow cabinet:
Shadow Chancellor
Chief secretary to the Treasury
Defence
Foreign secretary
Business secretary
Northern Ireland

I think Corbyn would definitely install loyalists on the Shadow Chancellor, Foreign secretary and Defence secretary positions, as he would certainly want some one who will toe his line on austerity, trident, and the EU.

Careful about using the word "Loyalist" when Jezza is around

Why?
People loyal to the new leadership should be called by definition loyalists.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

John Blackwillow ‏@blackwillow1 5m5 minutes ago
I think the same, the #LabourPurge will simply confirm what we already know. The blairites want power, by any means

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

I think it's mildly ironic that Jeremy Corbyn — an ardent republican — is likely to be elected leader on the 12th September which is precisely one day after the Queen celebrates overtaking Victoria as the longest-serving British monarch.

Or .... on 23rd May 2016 when The Queen will overtake the 64 years 3 months and 16 days of James III and VIII.

RodCrosby said:

AnneJGP said:

Anecdote alert. On buses today, I saw two gentlemen wearing hats like Mr Corbyn's. Both hats looked very new. I'd never seen a hat like that before Mr Corbyn became News. Has he set a fashion?

watford30 said:

williamglenn said:

HurstLlama said:

Really now the idea that the Foreign Sec is one of the big four jobs of government is a nonsense. Its more a placement for senior people who, cannot for party purposes, be dumped to see out their time comfortably with lots of first class travel.

I think it would revert to being a big job the moment someone with stature was appointed. Going back over the previous Foreign Secretaries - Hammond, Hague, Miliband, Beckett, Straw, Cook, Rifkind - you have to get all the way to Hurd before encountering anyone who looked like a statesman.

Quite right about Douglas Hurd. They don't make them like that anymore.

Speedy said:

Tsipras now "vote for me in order not to surrender our values, vote for me for to keep greece and our values greek".
Elections September 20th.

I think he may have done a tactical error in saying that "now we vote for who is going to implement the 3rd bailout". If people wanted a bailout and wanted it implemented or not they would vote for the opposition not for him.

David_Evershed said:

Mortimer said:

Oliver_PB said:

TOPPING said:

The crux of the argument was and is the size of the state, not the size of the deficit. Cons should (I do) want a smaller state than the behemoth that GB had created. I agree all the credit rating stuff was fluff (for a country which issues its own currency and especially in a low inflationary environment) but sometimes the public hears what it wants to hear.

Look, we're never going to agree about the size of the state or anything like that.

But my fundamental problem is that the Conservatives are making an argument about the deficit rather than arguing about the size and the role of the state. If they had run and won on a mandate of smaller and decentralised government (although I'd argue that they're very inconsistent about what that actually means) then it wouldn't bother me anywhere near as much. They're saying one thing while doing something completely different.

And, yes, the credit rating stuff was fluff. But the government pushed it hard and the press repeated it uncritically. But there were posters here, sincere posters, saying that the AAA credit rating was vitally important and the key difference between a Conservative and Labour government. The fact that people believed that nonsense shows the press isn't doing its job.

Making an economy more efficient is the way to reduce the deficit, and then, eventually, the debt.

Efficiency is generally increased by:

a) cutting expenditure - i.e. austerity
b) growing the economy - i.e. increasing employment, exports, retail sales etc
c) increasing the tax tax - the only way to achieve this and grow the economy at the same time is to cut tax rates

I know socialists struggle with this concept, but it has worked. Deficit down in real terms since 2010. Unnecessary welfare expenditure down in real terms. Economy grown massively. Employment up massively. Tax take up.

You make an economy more efficient by increasing productivity (output per man hour).

Increased productivity enables higher wages to be paid which increases tax take.

Increased productivity means fewer government workers needed for the same amount of work done and reduces government spending.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

I think it's mildly ironic that Jeremy Corbyn — an ardent republican — is likely to be elected leader on the 12th September which is precisely one day after the Queen celebrates overtaking Victoria as the longest-serving British monarch.

Or .... on 23rd May 2016 when The Queen will overtake the 64 years 3 months and 16 days of James III and VIII.

Naught but Jacobite Propaganda!!!

I assure you the Queen acceded to the throne on 6th February 1952.

I was referring to the "James III" bit!

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

I think it's mildly ironic that Jeremy Corbyn — an ardent republican — is likely to be elected leader on the 12th September which is precisely one day after the Queen celebrates overtaking Victoria as the longest-serving British monarch.

Or .... on 23rd May 2016 when The Queen will overtake the 64 years 3 months and 16 days of James III and VIII.

Naught but Jacobite Propaganda!!!

I assure you the Queen acceded to the throne on 6th February 1952.

I was referring to the "James III" bit!

Really ?!? .... I thought you hadn't had a "bit" for ages ?!?

Speedy said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Speedy said:

Well that didn't take long, the first and probably last elected left wing government in Europe since 1979 lasted 7 months in total and was a total failure.

Last??

What about President Hollande?

Under what possible measure are socialists left wing?

Danny565 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gordon Brown, David Miliband and Neil Kinnock all know how to win General Elections as Labour Leader, don't they?!

It has been quite amusing to see David Miliband giving out lectures on how to win elections. Him, the only person in the world to lose an election to Ed Miliband.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

watford30 said:

williamglenn said:

HurstLlama said:

Really now the idea that the Foreign Sec is one of the big four jobs of government is a nonsense. Its more a placement for senior people who, cannot for party purposes, be dumped to see out their time comfortably with lots of first class travel.

I think it would revert to being a big job the moment someone with stature was appointed. Going back over the previous Foreign Secretaries - Hammond, Hague, Miliband, Beckett, Straw, Cook, Rifkind - you have to get all the way to Hurd before encountering anyone who looked like a statesman.

Quite right about Douglas Hurd. They don't make them like that anymore.

"Douglas, Douglas, you would make Neville Chamberlain look like a warmonger."

- M H Thatcher, On Douglas Hurd, as quoted in "Atticus", The Sunday Times (2 May, 1993)

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

I think it's mildly ironic that Jeremy Corbyn — an ardent republican — is likely to be elected leader on the 12th September which is precisely one day after the Queen celebrates overtaking Victoria as the longest-serving British monarch.

Or .... on 23rd May 2016 when The Queen will overtake the 64 years 3 months and 16 days of James III and VIII.

Naught but Jacobite Propaganda!!!

I assure you the Queen acceded to the throne on 6th February 1952.

I was referring to the "James III" bit!

Really ?!? .... I thought you hadn't had a "bit" for ages ?!?

How's Franz of Bavaria doing BTW?

The_Apocalypse said:

OT.

For the past couple of weeks, I've been lurking on this forum called tes community. Apparently it's a community of teachers.

If it is indeed a community of teachers (and they are representative) then the UK is really screwed. I love how that when more a third fail GCSE Maths, they blame the pupils, and don't ask questions of their own teaching. If you instinctively dismiss pupils, then they aren't going to do well.

And on Tspiras: LOL.

rcs1000 said:

@Speedy:

The Greek opinion polls have SYRIZA on about 40%, and ND about 22%.

Let us assume that SYRIZA (Tsipiras), ND and SYRIZA (splinter) all end up in the low 20s.

That means that even with the 50 seat bonus, there will probably need to be a coalition between two of those three.

It could be quite entertaining. That being said, I suspect Tsipiras walks this, getting 30-33% for his SYRIZA, with SYRIZA (splinter) getting perhaps 10%.

Speedy said:

Well that didn't take long, the first and probably last elected left wing government in Europe since 1979 lasted 7 months in total and was a total failure.

david_herdson said:

RodCrosby said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

david_herdson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

watford30 said:

williamglenn said:

HurstLlama said:

Really now the idea that the Foreign Sec is one of the big four jobs of government is a nonsense. Its more a placement for senior people who, cannot for party purposes, be dumped to see out their time comfortably with lots of first class travel.

I think it would revert to being a big job the moment someone with stature was appointed. Going back over the previous Foreign Secretaries - Hammond, Hague, Miliband, Beckett, Straw, Cook, Rifkind - you have to get all the way to Hurd before encountering anyone who looked like a statesman.

Quite right about Douglas Hurd. They don't make them like that anymore.

"Douglas, Douglas, you would make Neville Chamberlain look like a warmonger."

- M H Thatcher, On Douglas Hurd, as quoted in "Atticus", The Sunday Times (2 May, 1993)

Neville Chamberlain did start WWII (sort of).

No, the Germans started it! They invaded Poland!

The Russians started it, actually, by conning Hitler into invading Poland...

The Japanese really started it, in 1937, but everyone else ignores that.

volcanopete said:

antifrank said:

If Jeremy Corbyn wins, who might serve as shadow Foreign Secretary? Given his views, this looks like the most challenging post to fill.

My guess is that JC will make a magnanimous offer to the 3 defeated candidates first,even though they may have rejected the thought initially.Most leaders prefer to have their opponents inside the tent urinating out than outside the tent urinating in.

ydoethur said:

The_Apocalypse said:

OT.

For the past couple of weeks, I've been lurking on this forum called tes community. Apparently it's a community of teachers.

If it is indeed a community of teachers (and they are representative) then the UK is really screwed. I love how that when more a third fail GCSE Maths, they blame the pupils, and don't ask questions of their own teaching. If you instinctively dismiss pupils, then they aren't going to do well.

And on Tspiras: LOL.

TES stands for Times Educational Supplement, which runs the forum. So yes, it is a community of teachers.

No, they are not representative, any more than PB posters are representative of all voting patterns. They tend to be the most vocal and aggressive, and the forum has a strong left-wing bias anyway because of its links to the newspaper.

EDIT (further thought) - they would tend to be particularly unrepresentative of good teachers in shortage subjects, because they are the most overworked and have little time to do anything other than work - even in the holidays.

volcanopete said:

antifrank said:

If Jeremy Corbyn wins, who might serve as shadow Foreign Secretary? Given his views, this looks like the most challenging post to fill.

My guess is that JC will make a magnanimous offer to the 3 defeated candidates first,even though they may have rejected the thought initially.Most leaders prefer to have their opponents inside the tent urinating out than outside the tent urinating in.

Danny565 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gordon Brown, David Miliband and Neil Kinnock all know how to win General Elections as Labour Leader, don't they?!

It has been quite amusing to see David Miliband giving out lectures on how to win elections. Him, the only person in the world to lose an election to Ed Miliband.

The_Apocalypse said:

ydoethur said:

The_Apocalypse said:

OT.

For the past couple of weeks, I've been lurking on this forum called tes community. Apparently it's a community of teachers.

If it is indeed a community of teachers (and they are representative) then the UK is really screwed. I love how that when more a third fail GCSE Maths, they blame the pupils, and don't ask questions of their own teaching. If you instinctively dismiss pupils, then they aren't going to do well.

And on Tspiras: LOL.

TES stands for Times Educational Supplement, which runs the forum. So yes, it is a community of teachers.

No, they are not representative, any more than PB posters are representative of all voting patterns. They tend to be the most vocal and aggressive, and the forum has a strong left-wing bias anyway because of its links to the newspaper.

EDIT (further thought) - they would tend to be particularly unrepresentative of good teachers in shortage subjects, because they are the most overworked and have little time to do anything other than work - even in the holidays.

Thanks for the reply. I'm glad to hear that they aren't representative - some of them appear to be awfully narrow-minded and immature for teachers.

foxinsoxuk said:

volcanopete said:

antifrank said:

If Jeremy Corbyn wins, who might serve as shadow Foreign Secretary? Given his views, this looks like the most challenging post to fill.

My guess is that JC will make a magnanimous offer to the 3 defeated candidates first,even though they may have rejected the thought initially.Most leaders prefer to have their opponents inside the tent urinating out than outside the tent urinating in.

My guess is that he won't. If Corbyn knew how to work with other peopld of different views in the party then he would have done so at somr point in the last decades.

david_herdson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

volcanopete said:

antifrank said:

If Jeremy Corbyn wins, who might serve as shadow Foreign Secretary? Given his views, this looks like the most challenging post to fill.

My guess is that JC will make a magnanimous offer to the 3 defeated candidates first,even though they may have rejected the thought initially.Most leaders prefer to have their opponents inside the tent urinating out than outside the tent urinating in.

My guess is that he won't. If Corbyn knew how to work with other peopld of different views in the party then he would have done so at somr point in the last decades.

I disagree - I expect Corbyn to run the shadow cabinet in quite a democratic manner to start with. The difficulty he will have is in accepting the need for collective responsibility.

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Well that didn't take long, the first and probably last elected left wing government in Europe since 1979 lasted 7 months in total and was a total failure.

Zapatero, Mitterrand, Brown, Felipe Gonzales, Romano Prodi, Sturgeon and virtually every Nordic Social Democrat government plus the whole of Eastern Europe until 1989?

Socialists are not left wing, when was the last time any socialist government did anything left wing? And I said elected governments not peoples republics.
P.S. Gordon Brown is a lefty?

HYUFD said:

You could also ask when was the last time we had a purely capitalist government in Europe?

calum said:

RodCrosby said:

antifrank said:

If Jeremy Corbyn wins, who might serve as shadow Foreign Secretary? Given his views, this looks like the most challenging post to fill.

that well-known anti-semite Gerald Kaufman?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMGuYjt6CP8

This is a very good example of why the Establishment (Labour Grandees, Political commentators, MSM and the Tories) need to re-think their tactics around trying to combat Corbyn. There is a risk that the relentless Establishment attacks on Corbyn result in many folks doing their own research and taking a very hard look at the UK's role in the world.

Once folks start looking into events such as - King David Hotel bombing, the actions of a number of our Middle Eastern allies, who funds ISIS, the likely findings of the Chilcot review, UK's involvement in illegal renditions, Northern Ireland, Miners strike etc etc - they may not like what they find.

The Establishment's best approach would be to let Corbyn play out without looking like their in a state of panic, as this just seems to be driving forward the Corbyn surge.

ydoethur said:

One further thought - in 2017, the maths foundation paper is effectively being abolished. The new 'foundation' tier will be the current 'intermediate' tier. That's going to have a big impact on results unless something drastic happens. It's all worth pointing out that as it is nearly impossible to get a half-decent job (and totally impossible to get a university place) without GCSE maths, it's going to have a serious knock-on effect down the line.

RodCrosby said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

david_herdson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

watford30 said:

williamglenn said:

HurstLlama said:

Really now the idea that the Foreign Sec is one of the big four jobs of government is a nonsense. Its more a placement for senior people who, cannot for party purposes, be dumped to see out their time comfortably with lots of first class travel.

I think it would revert to being a big job the moment someone with stature was appointed. Going back over the previous Foreign Secretaries - Hammond, Hague, Miliband, Beckett, Straw, Cook, Rifkind - you have to get all the way to Hurd before encountering anyone who looked like a statesman.

Quite right about Douglas Hurd. They don't make them like that anymore.

"Douglas, Douglas, you would make Neville Chamberlain look like a warmonger."

- M H Thatcher, On Douglas Hurd, as quoted in "Atticus", The Sunday Times (2 May, 1993)

Neville Chamberlain did start WWII (sort of).

No, the Germans started it! They invaded Poland!

The Russians started it, actually, by conning Hitler into invading Poland...

MyBurningEars said:

ydoethur said:

One further thought - in 2017, the maths foundation paper is effectively being abolished. The new 'foundation' tier will be the current 'intermediate' tier. That's going to have a big impact on results unless something drastic happens. It's all worth pointing out that as it is nearly impossible to get a half-decent job (and totally impossible to get a university place) without GCSE maths, it's going to have a serious knock-on effect down the line.

Flip side to this: the Intermediate Tier was a good choice of paper for students trying to get a C but who had some chance of getting a B. Ideal for a lot of adult education students for instance (as an adult ed lecturer I was gutted when they scrapped it.)

Also, the half-decent jobs tend to require not just a basic pass (like a D or E) but a C or a B. In fact there seems almost no demand from employers for grades D-G, even though they exist, and even though they are useful at showing the range in skills. (Not that the letter grades will exist for much longer of course!)

Forcing people to take an intermediate-equivalent paper in order to get a C-equivalent isn't going to have much knock-on effect, since those who were going to get a C-equivalent on a foundation-equivalent paper would likely get one on an intermediate-equivalent paper anyway. In fact for a lot of students, it was easier on intermediate, because there are many students who are able to do things like basic algebra but had gaps in fundamental areas, particularly laying out arithmetic neatly and knowing their times table. The intermediate got straight on to their preferred level of difficulty whereas the foundation required them to score very highly on the "basic" questions that in theory they should have romped through, but in practice often caught them out.

Note also that there are going to be more people retaking GCSE during sixth form or (more likely) FE college, now that education/training is compulsory to 18 and that ongoing maths is going to be required. That gives people two more years to drag themselves up to C standard.