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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Corbyn price on Betfair edges out a touch following comments by the YouGov boss
Kellner clearly sees a lot more polling and other data than is made public and my guess is that hs comment on the World at One was not taken out of the air but is based on something.
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It's hard to know wherein lies the bigger shit-fest for Labour - Jeremy winning, or Jeremy just losing.
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For example we know that younger people are less likely to vote than they claim.
Stag do got out of hand?
Also he forgot the British presence 1810-1812 on the Swedish island of Hano (which I mentioned earlier)!
I guess I have Pulps. The Corbyn factor has stimulated some kind of deep rooted post traumatic stress syndrome for me that has just hit me like a bolt of unwanted lightning. I suddenly remember the 1980's- the branch meetings, Trots talking utter shyte, arguing for endless hours over the wording of some resolution or other.
The Trots are a pain in the bloody arse. And mostly as thick as pig shit- they don't listen to anything. They read the Communist Manifesto and got indoctrinated without questioning anything else. But worse they made any party gathering about as fun as spending three hours sticking needles in your eyes.
And now- the Trots are back. I cannot believe it. Arghhhhh.........
Several sources seem to indicate that Kezia dugdale got 5,217 votes to become leader of SLAB. As she got 72% of a vote which was 60% turnout, this means that the grand total of the electorate for SLAB leader was : -
12,076
Now this includes those voters who paid their £3 and eligible Union affiliates. The UK wide numbers indicate that this is about half the total electorate. Perhaps it is likely that in Scotland that number is lower but it's hard to be sure.
What we do know is that it must be below 12,000 and could be as low as 6,000,
Put into perspective the Scottish Greens have 9,000 members, the Scottish Tories have 11,000. The Liberals might be higher than 4,000 but as there isn't an update since before the election I can find, it's not clear if they have benefited in Scotland from their recent "surge" in membership.
The SNP have 104,000.
http://www.salon.com/2015/08/18/the_ballad_of_bernie_donald_how_two_unorthodox_candidates_caught_fire_because_americans_are_mad_as_hell/?source=newsletter
No-one can prove what the real position was last week however people very much will be able to say what the scores are right now. An attack of doubt is very handy in such circumstances to a pollster who didn't have the best of elections (not that he was the only one there).
Ignoring Kellner's comments, do we have any reason otherwise to assume that Burnham, Cooper or Kendall have improved since last week? Only if you think the grandees weighing in over the weekend will have made a difference. I can't see why it should have - so the safest assumption to work on is surely that they haven't. In any case, if their intervention has marginally damaged Corbyn, the others are surely even more damaged by their attacks on each other.
1.43 strikes me as excellent value.
Some value in Labour majority at next election 4.2 on Betfair or Labour most seats at 3.2. Tories could yet still screw up over Europe.
Corbyn by a wafer thin margin will see him in place, but the party will be wracked with in-fighting.
As Darlene said in the cold open if the latest episode of Mr Robot** "There's no middle any more. Just rich and poor."
**One of the best series I've ever seen and the TV highlight of the year
You should know that Trotskyism is a tool of the Capitalists!!
http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89
1) Reducing immigration
2) Regaining economic credibility
3) Being tough on welfare
The debate between New Labour and Old Labour has concentrated entirely on 2. But the eventual solution to Labour's problems has to address 1. and 3. Right now I don't see either side in the Labour debate being willing to do so.
Considering about 99% of so of members, or anyone else for that matter didn't have a clue about who Corbyn was a month or so ago, I can safely assume his vote could be quite soft. He's not like a Rand Paul figure who has cultivated a messianic following over the years.
I couldn't imagine a more difficult election to poll. Burnham and Cooper have no real following in the party, members were fed up with the choice of candidates, and then up steps this beardy unknown who shakes it all up a bit. And, to cap it all you have this unfathomable voting system that even the candidates don't appear to understand.
If I was Kellner I would hedge as fast as a hibernating hedgehog.
He was thinking of the wrong Petropavlovsk! There is indeed a city by that name in present-day Kazakhstan (though better known as Petropavl).
But there is also one in the Russian Far East! It was the latter wot was besieged by Anglo-French forces in 1854:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Petropavlovsk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33973394
Do they sell Paprika Pringles behind the fish counter at Morrisons?
To calm you down a bit, some of my Labour friends are voting Corbyn as second preference, so even if he fails to get over the hurdle at the first time, it is very likely that he'll do it later on.
The Cooper/Burnham ugly spat is likely to push their respective supporters second choices to Corbyn out of loyalty.
(1) Has anyone notice the trend for some idiots to pronounce "image" as "immaaaj"? Like "homage" and "homaaaj" - Yuk.
1. JC, 2. EC, 3. AB, 4. LK
1. CF, 2. SC. 3. TW, 4. BB, 5. AE
There is an economic measure of inequality called Gini where 0 shows max equality and 100 shows max inequality. Figures for the Uk show in 1991 it was 36 and in 2010 it was 38, so little changed in those 20 years.
One of the most equal countries is Albania with 29 in 2012 and one of the least equal is Brazil with 53 in 2012.
Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI
Subjective impressions are more to do with relativity. If you are poor and everyone else is poor you don't feel so bad. If you are well off and there are many billionaires then you will feel the inequality.
Will they rename the plane Easy Jet 1 ?
'He knows something and is prepared to risk his job by leaking it?'
He's just hedging his bets ,he can't afford to be wrong again after the GE mess.
Of course he could also be in a deep pit of gloom over the antics of his beloved Labour party.
Meanwhile .... I've just returned from a very pleasing luncheon- I do enjoy a decent pie and a fine ale
I have to say I agree. No matter how bad some PB Tories think Corbyn will be, they are as nothing as to how my Labour source and I believe this fiasco will turn out.
Tremendous fun for PB but better government is served by an able opposition and government in waiting. Sadly we shall have many years to wait.
INEQUALITY IS SPIRALLING
Do you (and/or your source) think there is a chance Labour could be supplanted as HM's Loyal Opposition?
I have no horse in this race.
But Jack, as most old Labourites are now in the HoL the correct term is surely My Lord Comrade or informally Honourable Comrade.
Difficult to full explanation for that.
Chairman Corbyn's hammer will smash the banskster-capitalist conspiracy, even as his sickle reaps a rich harvest of socialist triumph!
FPTP will ensure Labour remain as the Loyal Opposition but in such a diminished fashion as to allow the Conservatives a free run for the foreseeable future.
I'm trying to imagine the likes of Chukka, Liz and Danczuk spouting Corbynite rubbish for two years while they wait for decent leader.
It isn't easy.
Corbyn as LotO will also become a member of the Privy Council - The Rt Hon Comrade Corbyn.
It might be just me, but there is something not quite right about this event that I just can't put my finger on.
Betfair has reacted to this piece with another grand available to back JC at 1.39 or 1.38. Pile in, those who haven't already!
Quite. A situation that might make them very well reflect on what future they have in such a party.
'Just look at Vicky Pryce, who is back on the BBC with an expert gig, despite being a convicted criminal.'
What's Pryce doing on the BBC ?
http://www.bordersrailway.co.uk/
http://www.labour.org.uk/blog/entry/havent-received-your-ballot-yet
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She is shite at confrontational politics.
Lost a potential 2nd pref from me about a week ago.
Jezza only for me if my ballots ever arrive
The Scottish government deserves some credit for the reopening of the line. Although I hope it;s been built to a better standard than the Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine link, which is having to be rebuilt just a few years after it was reopened ...
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/household-income/the-effects-of-taxes-and-benefits-on-household-income/2013-2014/sb-chd-figure-5.xls
It started to get out of hand about two weeks ago, and currently nose-diving. And we've three weeks to go. I've no idea what could possibly happen next, it's all beyond absurd - and these people are grown-ups FFS.
Will still be dithering about for a while and not voting for a few weeks, though.