politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Poll: Corbyn is winning but still unlikely to win
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Poll: Corbyn is winning but still unlikely to win
Last night, YouGov released a poll on the Labour leadership that has thrown something of a hand grenade into the contest. After rumours that private polling was showing Jeremy Corbyn ahead we now have a poll showing exactly that. In fact, the first preference numbers in this poll are:
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I still can't believe it.0
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If this happens can only see the centrist lump of the labour movment leaving and perhaps forming a new progressive alliance with the liberals.
Labours problem for a number of years has been at every meeting, in every publication the shrill voices are the loudest and anything else is drowned out-call it the Owen Jones tendancy. It looks like the only way to lose that is for the sane to board the lifeboats now and leave the lunatics to burn down the assylum if I may mix my metaphors.0 -
@Pulpstar It's stunning isn't it?!
And UNITE are recruiting like no ones business to get more sign-ups. Will the polling ginger up those opposed to Corbyn or encourage even more hard-Lefties?
Right now, even Tories4Corbyn must be getting swamped by those who genuinely want a low watt Tony Benn in charge.0 -
Burning the lifeboats and boarding the asylum more likely.mr-claypole said:If this happens can only see the centrist lump of the labour movment leaving and perhaps forming a new progressive alliance with the liberals.
Labours problem for a number of years has been at every meeting, in every publication the shrill voices are the loudest and anything else is drowned out-call it the Owen Jones tendancy. It looks like the only way to lose that is for the sane to board the lifeboats now and leave the lunatics to burn down the assylum if I may mix my metaphors.
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FPT
I don't think this has been mentioned before but in opposition the Leader and Deputy Leader face annual elections. Throughout his term Ed was returned unopposed but that need not be the case and Corbyn would surely likely be challenged if the party's ratings plunged.
However, the system would be the same as that which elected him in the first place.
See page 20 of
https://rotherhampolitics.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/rule-book-2014-collins-review.pdf0 -
I wonder if Corbyn could actually win the GE if he gets in ?
Say we're in recession and Osborne is in charge.
Say Labour win 20 seats and the Lib Dems 5, that might be enough...0 -
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Its 1979 all over again. Scots bleating about a lost referendum, Libs damaged by supporting a weak government, Labour going the full Castro and a Conservative government reconstructing what the state is for.
Only the music is not so good.0 -
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Labour are paying at the moment a very high price for an Ed Miliband leadership which allowed so much influence to Unite. However, an implosion now followed by a purge of the militant left-wing may yet produce a moderate centrist alternative.Plato said:@Pulpstar It's stunning isn't it?!
And UNITE are recruiting like no ones business to get more sign-ups. Will the polling ginger up those opposed to Corbyn or encourage even more hard-Lefties?
Right now, even Tories4Corbyn must be getting swamped by those who genuinely want a low watt Tony Benn in charge.0 -
I do hope this madness will gutter out here, but will extend over the way to get Donald Trump nominated for Pres.0
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R5 phone in from 9 on the Corbgasm,
There may be method to Labours madness though - Moononastick esque parties lead by charismatic pyschos have done very well in elections in Greece, Venezuala and Scotland.0 -
Most Labour members will be quite happy for it to become a pressure group. The rest should leave the Party now. The Lib Dems need themdr_spyn said:
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Corbyn in Trump's whitehouse in 2022 is my 'bold' prediction
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Is that 20 extra seats or 20 seats in total. Hard to be sure thee days. Lib dems on 5 or gaining 5 is equally vague.Pulpstar said:I wonder if Corbyn could actually win the GE if he gets in ?
Say we're in recession and Osborne is in charge.
Say Labour win 20 seats and the Lib Dems 5, that might be enough...0 -
Done well electorally! Their effectiveness as governments are rather more mixed.TGOHF said:R5 phone in from 9 on the Corbgasm,
There may be method to Labours madness though - Moononastick esque parties lead by charismatic pyschos have done very well in elections in Greece, Venezuala and Scotland.0 -
Paul Waugh retweeted
Owen Bennett @owenjbennett 2m2 minutes ago
Just been handed Blair's speech. "I wouldn't want to win an old fashioned leftist platform. Even I thought it was the route to victory"
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Welcome Sir.
I had a bit of crush on Mr Davenport myself.mr-claypole said:If this happens can only see the centrist lump of the labour movment leaving and perhaps forming a new progressive alliance with the liberals.
Labours problem for a number of years has been at every meeting, in every publication the shrill voices are the loudest and anything else is drowned out-call it the Owen Jones tendancy. It looks like the only way to lose that is for the sane to board the lifeboats now and leave the lunatics to burn down the assylum if I may mix my metaphors.0 -
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 50s51 seconds ago
Tony Blair mounts Corbyn fightback - tells @ProgressOnline: "You win from the centre. You don't win from a traditional leftist position".0 -
No way would Corbyn deign to appear at the Whitehouse.Pulpstar said:Corbyn in Trump's whitehouse in 2022 is my 'bold' prediction
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And the Tories are taking on the unions - it's deja vu!foxinsoxuk said:
Its 1979 all over again. Scots bleating about a lost referendum, Libs damaged by supporting a weak government, Labour going the full Castro and a Conservative government reconstructing what the state is for.
Only the music is not so good.0 -
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 8s9 seconds ago
Woodcock: 'Tony Blair is the only person alive ever to have taken Labour from Opposition to Government.' Pause a minute and ponder on that.0 -
Blair live: http://www.progressonline.org.uk/events/0
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I'm still pinching myself - the Owen Jones wing of Labour is taking itself really seriously.
For proof, look no further than Unite’s intervention in favour of Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is the darling of the impossiblist wing of the Labour Party, a low-watt Tony Benn and just as poisonous in his stoking of betrayal and resentment. Economic realities are mere ideological constructs, Tory chicanery that can be willed away. Labour is only really Labour when it loses from the Left. When it wins from the centre, it has sold out.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/1324261-analysis-stephen-daisley-on-liz-kendall-and-the-labour-leadership-race/felix said:
Labour are paying at the moment a very high price for an Ed Miliband leadership which allowed so much influence to Unite. However, an implosion now followed by a purge of the militant left-wing may yet produce a moderate centrist alternative.Plato said:@Pulpstar It's stunning isn't it?!
And UNITE are recruiting like no ones business to get more sign-ups. Will the polling ginger up those opposed to Corbyn or encourage even more hard-Lefties?
Right now, even Tories4Corbyn must be getting swamped by those who genuinely want a low watt Tony Benn in charge.0 -
I'm doing my bit. With effect from today, comrades, I am a paid up Registered Supporter of the Labour Party.
I eagerly await my ballot papers!0 -
If Corbyn becomes Labour Leader I will switch from LibDem to Labour and work as an activist for them. Seriously. I would feel motivated again.Innocent_Abroad said:
Most Labour members will be quite happy for it to become a pressure group. The rest should leave the Party now. The Lib Dems need themdr_spyn said:
I think he would pick up many voters who currently don't vote Labour or don't vote at all.
He won't lose many Tory-lite Labour voters as they have already switched to the Tories.0 -
Don't move back, because our thoughts are too pure.0
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And Cameron is the only one alive to do the same for the Cons (and even then he couldn't get a majority).dr_spyn said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 8s9 seconds ago
Woodcock: 'Tony Blair is the only person alive ever to have taken Labour from Opposition to Government.' Pause a minute and ponder on that.
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Need to regain economic credibility.0
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Which pools are you thinking Corbyn would gain voters from? Greenies? Kippers? SNP? PC?
The DNV group unsurprisingly and typically DNV.Barnesian said:
If Corbyn becomes Labour Leader I will switch from LibDem to Labour and work as an activist for them. Seriously. I would feel motivated again.Innocent_Abroad said:
Most Labour members will be quite happy for it to become a pressure group. The rest should leave the Party now. The Lib Dems need themdr_spyn said:
I think he would pick up many voters who currently don't vote Labour or don't vote at all.
He won't lose many Tory-lite Labour voters as they have already switched to the Tories.0 -
Ditto David Cameron for the Tories, no?dr_spyn said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 8s9 seconds ago
Woodcock: 'Tony Blair is the only person alive ever to have taken Labour from Opposition to Government.' Pause a minute and ponder on that.
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He won't win any Tory votes, so that entirely depends on consolidating all left-wing votes around him. Yet, today, there are far fewer Lib Dem votes left to squeeze and the Greens are minuscule in most marginal seats. I'm not sure many Kippers would plump for someone who talks so warmly about immigrarion.Pulpstar said:I wonder if Corbyn could actually win the GE if he gets in ?
Say we're in recession and Osborne is in charge.
Say Labour win 20 seats and the Lib Dems 5, that might be enough...
It's more likely the Labour vote fractures, and some vote Lib Dem or even Tory in frustration, and thus hand the Tories a further 20-30 seats.0 -
Jeremy will never be Labour leader. It's a wet dream for the Tories and a wet dream for a few ideological purists. The result would be the Monty Python sketch about the splitters.
I voted Labour when Foot was leader. He was ideological but a pragmatist, a political version of Corbyn. I voted Labour then knowing that if the worst came to the worst. his odd views would be modified by circumstances or colleagues. With JC, it's different.
In their heart of hearts, Labour voters know that Corbyn may be a lovely idea but one that would self-destruct and cede the election to Cameron or his successor. Some will go for it, but not enough.They're hurting but not suicidal.0 -
Understand that businesses create jobs not governments.0
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If Corbyn wins and we hoover up all of the left of centre support to take a consistent lead in the polls, happy days. If we plunge to 20%, he falls on his sword any we try again, with the next generation standing in the ballot. Nothing to get worked up about.0
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This article has so many gems:
" Ed Miliband’s objective was to kill New Labour and to give the voters a clear choice between his party and the Tories. He succeeded on both counts."
"Labour is a toddler that has to be told time and again that the cooker is burny but every now and then throws a fit and pulls the scalding pot down around it. May’s rout was the rebuke for another tantrum but the sting lingers in the present leadership contest. Having driven the grown-ups from the party, Labour faces a starkly unserious field for its top job. Two soft-left continuity candidates compete with a hard-left dreamer and an MP who has only been in Parliament five years. Labour doesn’t look like an alternative government and, what’s worse, it doesn’t seem to care."
"Labour would be a daring party that assailed the Tories not merely as enemies of the poor and the marginalised but as a roadblock to a dynamic, prosperous and secure country for people from all walks of life. This sounds perfectly reasonable to the average voter but it is heresy to those who think the purpose of the Labour Party is to feel morally superior to people who read the Daily Mail. The biggest strike against Kendall, and what could ultimately do for her, is that she might make Labour electable again."
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/1324261-analysis-stephen-daisley-on-liz-kendall-and-the-labour-leadership-race/Plato said:I'm still pinching myself - the Owen Jones wing of Labour is taking itself really seriously.
For proof, look no further than Unite’s intervention in favour of Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is the darling of the impossiblist wing of the Labour Party, a low-watt Tony Benn and just as poisonous in his stoking of betrayal and resentment. Economic realities are mere ideological constructs, Tory chicanery that can be willed away. Labour is only really Labour when it loses from the Left. When it wins from the centre, it has sold out.
felix said:
Labour are paying at the moment a very high price for an Ed Miliband leadership which allowed so much influence to Unite. However, an implosion now followed by a purge of the militant left-wing may yet produce a moderate centrist alternative.Plato said:@Pulpstar It's stunning isn't it?!
And UNITE are recruiting like no ones business to get more sign-ups. Will the polling ginger up those opposed to Corbyn or encourage even more hard-Lefties?
Right now, even Tories4Corbyn must be getting swamped by those who genuinely want a low watt Tony Benn in charge.
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Corbyn has to be completely unelectable, but I do think he will galvanise the Left and take votes from the Greens, SNP and red defectors to UKIP. Which is a worry. I think the polls will show Labour doing well if he becomes Leader, such that it will be difficult to remove him.
But when push comes to shove, Osborne vs Corbyn in 2020 will be a rerun of Thatcher v Foot. He will repulse floating / casual voters everywhere.
Another Tory majority - but Labour will have a fair few more seats than they do now.0 -
Blair really seems a little worried about Corbyn.....0
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Well, he did - it took two goes, but he increased seats and vote share both times to go from Opposition to Majority.Theuniondivvie said:
And Cameron is the only one alive to do the same for the Cons (and even then he couldn't get a majority).dr_spyn said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 8s9 seconds ago
Woodcock: 'Tony Blair is the only person alive ever to have taken Labour from Opposition to Government.' Pause a minute and ponder on that.0 -
I'm not so sure.
Look at the millions who voted Kipper at GE2015 - many were frankly astonished so many actually did so after months of Peak Kipper. Surely there are enough who believe in Corbyn's hard Left politics in the echo leadership election.
We often mention the DT's comments and CiF - well they're mirror images of each other. If Nigel wasn't running UKIP - what would a leadership election look like amongst their faithful?CD13 said:
Jeremy will never be Labour leader. It's a wet dream for the Tories and a wet dream for a few ideological purists. The result would be the Monty Python sketch about the splitters.
I voted Labour when Foot was leader. He was ideological but a pragmatist, a political version of Corbyn. I voted Labour then knowing that if the worst came to the worst. his odd views would be modified by circumstances or colleagues. With JC, it's different.
In their heart of hearts, Labour voters know that Corbyn may be a lovely idea but one that would self-destruct and cede the election to Cameron or his successor. Some will go for it, but not enough.They're hurting but not suicidal.0 -
Tony a denier!
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 4 mins4 minutes ago
Blair on financial crisis: "There is absolutely no case whatever for effectively accepting that Labour 'caused' it."0 -
Only those businesses run by greedy egomaniacs...dr_spyn said:Understand that businesses create jobs not governments.
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He 'might' recover some Scottish seats, but how many votes will be gain, over how many votes will he lose in English marginals?Bob__Sykes said:Corbyn has to be completely unelectable, but I do think he will galvanise the Left and take votes from the Greens, SNP and red defectors to UKIP. Which is a worry. I think the polls will show Labour doing well if he becomes Leader, such that it will be difficult to remove him.
But when push comes to shove, Osborne vs Corbyn in 2020 will be a rerun of Thatcher v Foot. He will repulse floating / casual voters everywhere.
Another Tory majority - but Labour will have a fair few more seats than they do now.0 -
Oh dear god, I've just seen someone with a twibbon which has a 'member of the 76%'... these people actually exist.0
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That Sky are even showing the Q&A from Progress shows that they think it's a BIG story.
When fantasy politics gets traction like this - it's just so compelling - I feel like I'm watching an M25 pile-up and enjoying it.Slackbladder said:Blair really seems a little worried about Corbyn.....
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Wrong - there would be a significant loss of support to Tory/LD/UKIP. As for the non-voters they are the most conservative of all - expect little change there. The British electorate - like most others - is centrist and likely to stay so.Barnesian said:
If Corbyn becomes Labour Leader I will switch from LibDem to Labour and work as an activist for them. Seriously. I would feel motivated again.Innocent_Abroad said:
Most Labour members will be quite happy for it to become a pressure group. The rest should leave the Party now. The Lib Dems need themdr_spyn said:
I think he would pick up many voters who currently don't vote Labour or don't vote at all.
He won't lose many Tory-lite Labour voters as they have already switched to the Tories.0 -
Staggeringly complacent - you don't know the country you're living in!SandyRentool said:If Corbyn wins and we hoover up all of the left of centre support to take a consistent lead in the polls, happy days. If we plunge to 20%, he falls on his sword any we try again, with the next generation standing in the ballot. Nothing to get worked up about.
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There are different kinds of DNV. You meet them when canvassing.Plato said:Which pools are you thinking Corbyn would gain voters from? Greenies? Kippers? SNP? PC?
The DNV group unsurprisingly and typically DNV.Barnesian said:
If Corbyn becomes Labour Leader I will switch from LibDem to Labour and work as an activist for them. Seriously. I would feel motivated again.Innocent_Abroad said:
Most Labour members will be quite happy for it to become a pressure group. The rest should leave the Party now. The Lib Dems need themdr_spyn said:
I think he would pick up many voters who currently don't vote Labour or don't vote at all.
He won't lose many Tory-lite Labour voters as they have already switched to the Tories.
Some couldn't care less about politics. They have other interests or no interests at all. They will never vote.
Other DNVs including many young people who do care about political issues. But they are not motivated at all by the two main parties jostling for position in the centre ground with policies that are almost indistinguishable. But give them a cause they believe in, and a leader who can articulate it, they will vote.
I don't know the relative numbers. As @SandyRentool says below "If Corbyn wins and we hoover up all of the left of centre support to take a consistent lead in the polls, happy days. If we plunge to 20%, he falls on his sword any we try again, with the next generation standing in the ballot. Nothing to get worked up about."0 -
The only way that could happen is in Scotland. And out-SNP'ing the SNP is presently impossible.Bob__Sykes said:Another Tory majority - but Labour will have a fair few more seats than they do now.
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Ms Plato,
He has a head of steam building up because many are amazed and pleased that we have a politician who will say what he really believes.
He's a breath of fresh air, but one which will evaporate when they we see that he's a sixth former who believes that the world is the way he wants it to be. Nasty facts intrude.
Ask Greece.0 -
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There seems to be an assumption that Labour party members will act rationally when push comes to shove. I see no evidence for that, in fact given they joined the labour party.....0
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Dear god, if the leftish posters even on this forum, which are usually more reasonable than most of the frothers are gung-ho for Corbyn then Labour really is lost.
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New Twitter account opens with an absolute cracker of a paragraph from 1965:
https://twitter.com/heathsrise/status/6237647049057280000 -
No doubt he is falling into what is a clear Tory trap, wherein because Tories imply labour caused it but actually, as cameron was doing as early as his conference speech in 2010, make the distinction that labour made the situation much worse even if they did not cause a global crisis, then labour fight the wrong fight by rebutting an accusation not really made to comfort themselves.Theuniondivvie said:Tony a denier!
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 4 mins4 minutes ago
Blair on financial crisis: "There is absolutely no case whatever for effectively accepting that Labour 'caused' it."
It's word games. Labour can complain they did not 'cause' it, but it doesn't help much - until such times as the government duo lose their positive economic credibility - because the Tories can happily accept Blairs point as irrelevant with the 'they made it worse' argument. That battle has been won, and labour should leave it to economists and historians to counter it, and wait for the next battle instead.
So Tony is in a sense a denier, crying about unfairness which even if true is unhelpful.
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It's feeling like a hard-reset, one end of spectrum want to lance the boil of New Labour once and for all > the others want to have a catastrophe and knock some sense into their Party.
I can see sense in both notions - but the Corbynites will never win a GE.Slackbladder said:Dear god, if the leftish posters even on this forum, which are usually more reasonable than most of the frothers are gung-ho for Corbyn then Labour really is lost.
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A 'gay' party given by Ed Heath? Ohhhmyyy...Tissue_Price said:New Twitter account opens with an absolute cracker of a paragraph from 1965:
https://twitter.com/heathsrise/status/6237647049057280000 -
NHS modernisation about technology "not 5k more nurses" says Blair
That should go down well0 -
Anyone listening to R5? Should I tune in?0
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Hmmmm - Experienced bettors here have been laying him on Betfair, as he couldn't win the Labour leadership election, he's now 5-2 !Plato said:
I can see sense in both notions - but the Corbynites will never win a GE.
Five years is a very long time in politics - Tories for Corbyn's £3 is like playing with a live firecracker. He worries me in a way none of the other candidates do !0 -
Even if Corbyn is only leader as a short time, presumably he will use his time to promote leftists to the front bench, in order to bolster their credibility for a future leadership contest?0
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Nationalism is the oldest politics, the politics of the first caveman council, says Blair
Lol..0 -
Following on from Blair, Corbyn will be giving a speech today. Should be interesting.
According to Labour list:
'Later this morning, Corbyn will be giving a speech in which he'll set out his vision for a "fairer, more productive economy". This will include cutting subsidies for businesses and proposing a more progressive tax system.'0 -
I still don't believe that Labour will choose Corbyn. They do not have the nerve to go that much against the status quo, and will settle on one of the middle of the road Brownites.0
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It ain't going to be the rich that suffer if Corbyn gets in, it'll be the 20-50kers.Disraeli said:Following on from Blair, Corbyn will be giving a speech today. Should be interesting.
According to Labour list:
'Later this morning, Corbyn will be giving a speech in which he'll set out his vision for a "fairer, more productive economy". This will include cutting subsidies for businesses and proposing a more progressive tax system.'0 -
I honestly can't see it happening ever.
There's student politics and magic money trees - and reality. When Jezza's politics of CND et al were more popular - Foot was still annihilated. And all Mr Corbyn's IRA and other friends...?
The Brits have a sanity-mode when it comes to GEs, and this will kick in. It has done for a very long time.Pulpstar said:
Hmmmm - Experienced bettors here have been laying him on Betfair, as he couldn't win the Labour leadership election, he's now 5-2 !Plato said:
I can see sense in both notions - but the Corbynites will never win a GE.
Five years is a very long time in politics - Tories for Corbyn's £3 is like playing with a live firecracker. He worries me in a way none of the other candidates do !0 -
So, I don't follow cycling but I see there's accusations of doping going around - that is surely not surprising or should even be upsetting I'd have thought? From a PR point of view most people assume cycling is full of dopers, so for the time being everyone fairly or not will face scrutiny and assumptions of guilt. Harsh on the innocent, but the sport cannot change that until enough time passes between scandals.
An interesting point. It seems impossible, it probably still is, but it's fair to say that if he's done better than anyone thought, it cannot be ruled out that, bizarrely, the public might go for it if given the chance. I doubt they would but there's a market for what he's selling.Pulpstar said:
Hmmmm - Experienced bettors here have been laying him on Betfair, as he couldn't win the Labour leadership election, he's now 5-2 !Plato said:
I can see sense in both notions - but the Corbynites will never win a GE.
Five years is a very long time in politics - Tories for Corbyn's £3 is like playing with a live firecracker. He worries me in a way none of the other candidates do !
A market controlled by the state, presumably, given his views.
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The shadow the Corbynites will cast is a long one. Those who disagree will leave or be forced out, the tone of acceptable conversations will be pulled leftwards and who would want to vilified as a baby-eating crypto-Tory?
It'll take a disaster like Foot and a brave man like Kinnock to give them the high-voltage shock required.JEO said:Even if Corbyn is only leader as a short time, presumably he will use his time to promote leftists to the front bench, in order to bolster their credibility for a future leadership contest?
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He's already said he's wacking on NI for higher rate tax payers, and thats 'just' to pay for one policy.Pulpstar said:
It ain't going to be the rich that suffer if Corbyn gets in, it'll be the 20-50kers.Disraeli said:Following on from Blair, Corbyn will be giving a speech today. Should be interesting.
According to Labour list:
'Later this morning, Corbyn will be giving a speech in which he'll set out his vision for a "fairer, more productive economy". This will include cutting subsidies for businesses and proposing a more progressive tax system.'
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I think the Labour have decided to go down in flames.
Andy Burnham is the Scouse Ed Miliband
Liz Kendall is the Blairite/Tory - Burn her
Yvette Cooper is Mrs Bland
You can see why they've gone for the authentic guy.0 -
Advice from a Tory. Thank God Plato doesn't possess the slightest shred of arrogance...Plato said:The shadow the Corbynites will cast is a long one. Those who disagree will leave or be forced out, the tone of acceptable conversations will be pulled leftwards and who would want to vilified as a baby-eating crypto-Tory?
It'll take a disaster like Foot and a brave man like Kinnock to give them the high-voltage shock required.JEO said:Even if Corbyn is only leader as a short time, presumably he will use his time to promote leftists to the front bench, in order to bolster their credibility for a future leadership contest?
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And in all its glory - the leadership timetable. Plenty of time for all sort of shenanigans.
The full leadership election timetable, as agreed today by the NEC, is as follows:
...12 noon Wednesday 12 August Last date to join as member, affiliated supporter, or registered supporter
Friday 14 August Ballot mailing despatched
12 noon Thursday 10 September Ballot closes
Saturday 12 September Special conference to announce resultSlackbladder said:
He's already said he's wacking on NI for higher rate tax payers, and thats 'just' to pay for one policy.Pulpstar said:
It ain't going to be the rich that suffer if Corbyn gets in, it'll be the 20-50kers.Disraeli said:Following on from Blair, Corbyn will be giving a speech today. Should be interesting.
According to Labour list:
'Later this morning, Corbyn will be giving a speech in which he'll set out his vision for a "fairer, more productive economy". This will include cutting subsidies for businesses and proposing a more progressive tax system.'0 -
Indeed, which is why the Tories haven't won the votes of more than a quarter of the electorate in over two decadesPlato said:I honestly can't see it happening ever.
There's student politics and magic money trees - and reality. When Jezza's politics of CND et al were more popular - Foot was still annihilated. And all Mr Corbyn's IRA and other friends...?
The Brits have a sanity-mode when it comes to GEs, and this will kick in. It has done for a very long time.Pulpstar said:
Hmmmm - Experienced bettors here have been laying him on Betfair, as he couldn't win the Labour leadership election, he's now 5-2 !Plato said:
I can see sense in both notions - but the Corbynites will never win a GE.
Five years is a very long time in politics - Tories for Corbyn's £3 is like playing with a live firecracker. He worries me in a way none of the other candidates do !
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How does this affect the Labour nomination for London Mayor? Bearing in mind that (unless I'm mistaken) the ballot papers are going out simultaneously.0
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Good to see Blair on form this morning.0
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JC is an old git with anger management issues (think Harry Enfield's creation). The Labour party has just lost a traumatic election and many in it are angry. They seem a good fit for now but it's a brief alliance only.
Reality will intrude.0 -
One thing that doesn't currently happen, and should I think is that all riders should be weighed before and after each stage. All power/HR data should have to be uploaded to a central system too.kle4 said:So, I don't follow cycling but I see there's accusations of doping going around - that is surely not surprising or should even be upsetting I'd have thought? From a PR point of view most people assume cycling is full of dopers, so for the time being everyone fairly or not will face scrutiny and assumptions of guilt. Harsh on the innocent, but the sport cannot change that until enough time passes between scandals.
Those variables in of themselves can't check for doping but VAM, w/kg, efficiency are all clues in the game. VO2 max and thresholds perhaps to be checked before and after a 3 week stage race too.0 -
hehe... listener on Radio 5 now saying Harman's a Tory.0
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Barnesian - The problem with going after DNV (apart from the fact they tend not to vote) is that the biggest concentrations of DNV tend to be found in safe Labour constituencies. Racking up another 20,000 votes in Liverpool won't make a blind bit of difference to Lab's chances as they already have all the seats there. You mention getting more young people to turn out - again Lab already hold most of the seats with large numbers of students.
Let's look at the sort of seat that Lab need to win - Milton Keynes S
Con - 27.6k
Lab - 18.9k
UKIP - 7.8k
LD - 2.3k
Green - 1.9k
Other - 0.4k
Non-Voters - Approx 31k
Majority - 8672
So in theory there is a large pool of non-voters but in practice you would need to get 28% of them to vote which is a huge number. Bear in mind if they were all hard lefties disappointed with Labour then they could have voted Green. Some of the non-voters will be due to register inaccuracies (moved house or died), some will be people who were ill or those who were out of the country and didn't get a postal vote.
It is worth noting that the Con majority is higher than Green & LD put together. Realistically to win this seat Lab either needs to be taking a large chunk of the UKIP vote or they need direct Lab-Con switchers. Is Corbyn going to help with either of those?
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One thing which is important is that Cooper and Burnham seem totally impotent. They should be coming out fighting this morning.0
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Why do you need to be so rude? Plato is as entitled to give her views on something as any other forum member here. No-one is limited to only commenting on their party. If you think her analysis is wrong than point out why. Right now you just come across as trolling, and it is doing yourself no favours.Innocent_Abroad said:
Advice from a Tory. Thank God Plato doesn't possess the slightest shred of arrogance...Plato said:The shadow the Corbynites will cast is a long one. Those who disagree will leave or be forced out, the tone of acceptable conversations will be pulled leftwards and who would want to vilified as a baby-eating crypto-Tory?
It'll take a disaster like Foot and a brave man like Kinnock to give them the high-voltage shock required.JEO said:Even if Corbyn is only leader as a short time, presumably he will use his time to promote leftists to the front bench, in order to bolster their credibility for a future leadership contest?
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I don't think there are any circumstances under which Corbyn could win. In fact I think it's certain he'd win less than 200 seats and 30% whatever happens.Pulpstar said:I wonder if Corbyn could actually win the GE if he gets in ?
Say we're in recession and Osborne is in charge.
Say Labour win 20 seats and the Lib Dems 5, that might be enough...0 -
Does anyone else feel like a marriage guidance counsellor?
"Yes, I'm sure you feel that the electorate have treated you badly, but there's no need to go off with someone totally unsuitable. You'll soon regret it."0 -
Labour's approach to the EU under Corbyn would be far more sceptical than it is now and it is possible that with the opt outs Cameron looks set to negotiate there will be no concerted Labour campaign to stay in. What's more much of what he says about low pay, cuts etc will play well with the core vote that feels it has been abandoned. On balance, I can see him getting some votes back from UKIP. But that will in no way compensate for the votes he will haemorrhage in the centre.Casino_Royale said:
He won't win any Tory votes, so that entirely depends on consolidating all left-wing votes around him. Yet, today, there are far fewer Lib Dem votes left to squeeze and the Greens are minuscule in most marginal seats. I'm not sure many Kippers would plump for someone who talks so warmly about immigrarion.Pulpstar said:I wonder if Corbyn could actually win the GE if he gets in ?
Say we're in recession and Osborne is in charge.
Say Labour win 20 seats and the Lib Dems 5, that might be enough...
It's more likely the Labour vote fractures, and some vote Lib Dem or even Tory in frustration, and thus hand the Tories a further 20-30 seats.
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OMG Tony Blair talked about Star Trek.
Blair: '2015 election was an election out of the 1980s. Like Star Trek or something.'0 -
Good morning all. Labour don't want to change. They want the electorate to change.asjohnstone said:There seems to be an assumption that Labour party members will act rationally when push comes to shove. I see no evidence for that, in fact given they joined the labour party.....
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If Labour do elect Corbyn, it will confirm that Dave is the luckiest general since Hannibal0
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None of us are "entitled" to anything on this board. We are all here as OGH's guests. Nor am I responsible for how I "come across" to you, Plato or anyone else. If you don't know where I stop and you start there are plenty of self-help organisations you can approach.JEO said:
Why do you need to be so rude? Plato is as entitled to give her views on something as any other forum member here. No-one is limited to only commenting on their party. If you think her analysis is wrong than point out why. Right now you just come across as trolling, and it is doing yourself no favours.Innocent_Abroad said:
Advice from a Tory. Thank God Plato doesn't possess the slightest shred of arrogance...Plato said:The shadow the Corbynites will cast is a long one. Those who disagree will leave or be forced out, the tone of acceptable conversations will be pulled leftwards and who would want to vilified as a baby-eating crypto-Tory?
It'll take a disaster like Foot and a brave man like Kinnock to give them the high-voltage shock required.JEO said:Even if Corbyn is only leader as a short time, presumably he will use his time to promote leftists to the front bench, in order to bolster their credibility for a future leadership contest?
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NB from a betting perspective, the £2700 looking to back Jowell at 3.15 (next request is £4 @ 3.75!) is, ahem, "curious".Tissue_Price said:How does this affect the Labour nomination for London Mayor? Bearing in mind that (unless I'm mistaken) the ballot papers are going out simultaneously.
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@graemedownie: @paulwaugh God, now he's done it! Never mind upsetting @thesnp, be far more afraid of #trekkiesTheScreamingEagles said:OMG Tony Blair talked about Star Trek.
Blair: '2015 election was an election out of the 1980s. Like Star Trek or something.'0 -
I thought Yvette's response was very strange - it was disagreeing with the poll results, not making her case.
TBH, I don't think she has anything to say at all - plenty of time so far and almost sphinx like about her real views.Slackbladder said:One thing which is important is that Cooper and Burnham seem totally impotent. They should be coming out fighting this morning.
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Whatever the final Labour result, I do think that what is happening now with Corbyn and what happened in Greece makes Cameron's job of securing backing for the deal he does with the EU much harder. It will be interesting to see how the referendum polls develop, but I can see BOO getting very close indeed. The left now has good reason to turn out and vote against continued membership of the EU and the terms that Dave negotiates are going to exacerbate that.0
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Would JC be in the lead if the following had stood ?
Chukka ?
Dan Jarvis ?
I'm thinking Yes, No.
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