politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In spite of his current travails the betting markets make E
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In spite of his current travails the betting markets make EdM the leader most likely to hang on to his job during 2013
As a general rule I think that we over-estimate the chances of leaders being booted out when the going gets a bit tough. Time and time again we’ve seen people hang on even in, apparently, the most difficult of circumstances.
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Mike, that PP link is dead (404 Error Not Found).
Bet you are worried now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:JohannLamontMSPgreenjacket.jpg
By the way, I have been quietly cursing you all week! I got a bit worried by your comment on the Chinese interbank rates and decided not to buy approx 1800 GBP of stocks that day. Grrr. I'd have made a very tidy profit to date. But I'll forgive you
(Note: I am really only saving in gold stocks with a very long time horizon - approx 30 to 40 years - so short-term movements are irrelevant.)
Miliband 4/6
Cameron 6/5
Johnson 16/1
Hague 20/1
Balls, Gove, Hammond, Cooper 25/1
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/05/labour-union-row-distraction-tories
Froome for SPOTY
Ed himself proved you don't need to be popular with MPs (although how many would dare vote against him) or party members as long as you control the union votes
The trade union at the centre of a row with the Labour Party is facing new claims that it worked to oust a Blairite member of the shadow cabinet.
Ed Miliband’s office has been told that Unite tried to ensure the shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander lost his seat in a shake-up of constituency boundaries.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10164227/Unite-accused-of-putsch-against-senior-Blairite.html
Bad day for my bets. Incredibly wrong pair of tips. As wrong as someone who thinks Caesar was a better general than Hannibal. Working on the pre-race piece now.
He fears, though, that Miliband could still fall under the sway of those he pejoratively refers to as “Blairites”. He singles out the shadow foreign secretary, Douglas Alexander and the shadow defence secretary, Jim Murphy, for criticism.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics/2013/04/len-mccluskey-if-ed-miliband-seduced-blairites-hell-be-defeated
Betting PostBacked Raikkonen for a podium at 2.42, hedged at 1.1. Got a feeling the Lotus could be quite fast in the race. Then again, my two qualifying bets were utterly wrong.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/germany-pre-race.html
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/exclusive-len-mccluskey-declares-war-shadow-cabinet-blairites
" if he was "seduced" by the Blairites he'd lose the election and be "cast into the dustbin of history". He singled out shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander, shadow defence secretary Jim Murphy and shadow work and pensions secretary Liam Byrne for criticism. "
Anyway, congrats to Marion Bartoli on her first Wimbledon title and indeed her very first Grand Slam too. She was the runner-up back in 2007.
Sport.
Poor Nico, Mercedes strategy for him was really poor.
Greetings from Ilford West! Or was it East?
The SKY team shows what focused money, planning, and quality management can do. So does the reborn Triumph motorcycle industry, in spades.This country has some world beaters. It might be good if our leaders spent more time consulting the real pros responsible for these successes. I know I oversimplify. It's just a thought.
If you read about Froome's history you can only wish him an accident free victory.
Today Nico Rosberg's engineers followed the tactics of Hannibal.
"My sense of the mood in the opposition ranks is that the referendum u-turn has become inevitable. "
http://www.newstatesman.com/rafael-behr/2013/07/labours-referendum-u-turn-looking-ever-more-likely
That said, SPOTY can throw up some odd situations. In 2009 Button won the world title and got 2nd place, whereas Giggs got 1st for no apparent reason.
Wee Dougie and Murphy neck deep in this whole affair. Who could possibly have seen that coming? ;^ )
For the slow learners, who did they think Watson was referring to as giving "unattributed shadow cabinet briefings" when he quit?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-06/fraser-throws-support-behind-greens-hanson-young/4803722
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3809608.ece
Whilst the events in Egypt have been in the news, the unrest in Turkey has continued, albeit at a reduced level. There has been another flare-up today:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23214046
Question to someone in Ankara: How can you tell when there is trouble? Answer: When we have to keep our windows closed because of tear gas.
It is not yet over ...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0
To the exclusion of almost everything else the yellows focus will be on defending what they've already got - so your comparison is not that meaningful.
It's a great spread-sheet. Thanks for keeping it updated.
Been a sombre day today in spite of the bright sunshine.
Rigs and platforms across the North Sea are marking the anniversary of Piper Alpha and most of the Oil company offices have silences, events and meetings planned for Monday.
This is a short piece from the BBC Reporter's Notebook which is worth listening to.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-23210048
In particular we will be remembering the heroic crew of the Sandhaven Fast Rescue Boat who went into the fire under the rig to try and pull survivors from the water but who never made it out again.
Rest in Peace guys.
I know it doesn't really mean anything as far as the LDs defence of their 57 seats is concerned.
It was more of an excuse to put a link to the spreadsheet once again.
https://twitter.com/EverydaySexism/status/353537169354276865/photo/1
When parliament goes into recess I'll do a piece with links to your data.
Cameron was right, those who tweet are often twats, no idea why anyone pays any attention to twitter.
You can back UKIP to get a seat at a by-election before the next election at 7/2 with William Hill, and oppose this at 2/5 with Paddy Power for a sizzling tax-free return of 6.8% in a maximum of 22 months. Note, money invested with Messrs Hill and Power is not covered by the FSCS.
I expect the 2/5 is the real value.
Or is there no pattern?
I feel like I need a shower after reading that link
absolutely unbelievableIt does make Darling's Liechtenstein deal look a bit better in comparison. But would a Labour government push for a harder deal? Hard to imagine they would.
That includes the stuff we write on here.
I went onto one of those twitter feeds to find an utterly unapologetic Neanderthal. I wonder how we can be the same species, yet alone sex.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perth_and_Kinross_by-election,_1995
SPOTY
Alex Ferguson 11/10 (PP)
Andy Murray 5/4 (BF)
Chris Froome 11/2 (PP)
Justin Rose 15/2 (WH)
Alastair Cook 64/5 (Betfair)
Most of Labour's selections are in marginal seats, whereas it looks like the Tories have re-adopted a lot of sitting MPs.
Well done cycling for at least making a decent effort at catching them.
All the sprint cheats (Carl Lewis, Linford Christie, that Canadian guy etc etc etc) put me right off track n field.
Sadly for him he did a Dan Hodges and bet the farm on David winning and has had to make do with little Ed ever since. He's also shown about as much 'tact' as Hodges at times as he slid his way up the greasy pole yet again.
In Sunday Mirror, Unite's Len McCluskey urges Ed Miliband to "step back from the brink of a ruinous division" tinyurl.com/q5r984y
Anyone reading the last OBR Commentary on ONS's Public Finances Bulletin would have been left in no doubt about Robert Chote's anger at being stitched up again by the ONS and Treasury.
In his key findings:
The £3.2 billion estimate is based on the forecast for Swiss capital tax in our March 2013 Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) and includes the £0.3 billion prepayment already received and the £2.9 billion cash receipts expected over the next year. We noted when this measure was first incorporated in our forecasts that the eventual amount that would be raised was highly uncertain and revisions to this estimate could therefore be significant.
And twice again in the body of the commentary:
Swiss capital tax receipts which are accrued to May. Although ONS have previously used OBR forecasts as the basis for their estimates in similar circumstances, this is unusual in its size and the degree of uncertainty around it. As we said when the expected impact of the agreement was first included in our forecasts in autumn 2012: “The estimated revenue raised by this measure is highly uncertain as there is little hard information about the value of UK individuals’ financial assets in Switzerland, and how these individuals will respond to the policy.”;
and,
As noted earlier, this largely reflects the effects of APF transfers and Swiss capital tax receipts which are accrued to May. Although ONS have previously used OBR forecasts as the basis for their estimates in similar circumstances, this is unusual in its size and the degree of uncertainty around it. As we said when the expected impact of the agreement was first included in our forecasts in autumn 2012: “The estimated revenue raised by this measure is highly uncertain as there is little hard information about the value of UK individuals’ financial assets in Switzerland, and how these individuals will respond to the policy.”
Chote was behaving as if a fellow diner at Patisserie Valerie had ordered a bottle of vintage Krug for breakfast and had then done a runner leaving the OBR to pick up the bill.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2357471/Were-Barefoot-David-Cameron-chillaxes-sunshine-Poshstock-festival--whats-going-knock-sunglasses.html
Thought I post it before our tim does ;-)
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/len-mccluskey-urge-ed-miliband-2033804
Byrne's "no money left" was one of the biggest gifts to the tories they could have dreamed of, again was that competence in action?
As for Murphy, it's not just some in Unite that are sweating now that the Falkirk police are looking over the documents.
McLuskey and Unite are symptoms not causes. This is all about trying to push little Ed and labour further to the right or pulling him back from the endless tory triangulation. Both sides (exemplified by the Brownites and Blairites in cabinet) are overplaying their hands and giving the tories a massive open goal.
SLAB are still mired in that division with Lamont's amusing silence on Falkirk speaking volumes.
The velocity of lift off is so great that George doesn't need to use Chote's imagination as an afterburner.
Setting a provision against the Swiss Tax accrued receipts will be useful at year end to dampen premature expectations of tax cuts and interest rate hikes.
You must stop listening to tim and start appreciating boy George's master strategy through all the camouflage of complexity.
I suspect he isn't eligible though it may well be a grey area.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23214513