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SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited June 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is Jez We Can as Corbyn makes it on to the leadership ballot paper

I think Corbyn’s being there helps Andy Burnham the most, it will very hard for his opponents to describe Burnham as the most left wing candidate running or the favoured son of the trade unions.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    First!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The breakdown of his MPs will be interesting - are they all real supporters or splitting the vote?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Let him win... please let him win...
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Slackbladder said:

    Let him win... please let him win...

    We can't be that lucky ... can we?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2015
    TBH, a nice brutal ideological bust up will suit me fine.

    Nothing like having Corbyn on the ballot to get Twitter/Guardian CiF going mental. I see Owen Jones is waving his flag already. Bloody marvellous.

    It's got SCAB!! written all over this contest.
    Slackbladder said:

    Let him win... please let him win...

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    It would be ironic if Burnham came last on first preferences as a result of people thinking Corbyn will go out first.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jeremy Corbyn is in the gang of four.

    If volume on twitter and commentisfree was indicative, he'd sweep to victory. But it isn't and he won't.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I think this has to be good news for Burnham as it expands the overall electorate.

    Anyone want to give me a price on Corbyn not coming last?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    antifrank said:

    Jeremy Corbyn is in the gang of four.

    If volume on twitter and commentisfree was indicative, he'd sweep to victory. But it isn't and he won't.

    What are the type of people which will vote though? Labour party members.

    i'm sure he won't, it'll be Burnham, but yee gads, what if the loonies do it.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Who are the other three?
    antifrank said:

    Jeremy Corbyn is in the gang of four.

    If volume on twitter and commentisfree was indicative, he'd sweep to victory. But it isn't and he won't.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Dair said:

    Surely when the vote is open to the public Corbyn has a genuine chance of getting enough support from rank and file members of the Labour Party. The leadership and MPs might be dominated by the Islington Clique but surely the wider party want a genuine left wing alternative?

    Maybe not enough to win, but there are surely plenty of them who would like that, just as there were plenty who quite liked the idea of the SNP forcing Ed M to be a bit more lefty.

    I'm inclined to agree with the view this is good for Burnham, no way he can be a loony lefty when a much more obvious lefty is on the ballot.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    It is worth £3 of my money to get Corbyn elected. It really is.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    antifrank said:


    If volume on twitter and commentisfree was indicative, he'd sweep to victory. But it isn't and he won't.

    And Scotland would be negotiating independence with a Labour government
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Hell Yes
    oxfordsimon said:

    It is worth £3 of my money to get Corbyn elected. It really is.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    How many of thosee on Twitter even are glad Corbyn is on the ballot but wouldn't want him to win? I want a wide ideological field among my politicians as well, but at the end of the day like most people I end up voting for the narrowly focused bland automatons anyway - if it didn't work (usually) they wouldn't have become mainstream.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Not only does it make Andy Burnham not the hard left candidate, but he'll sweep most of the second preference transfers from Corbyn I suspect.

    Doesn't change the fact that ABICWNBPM.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Can't see how a fix so that Corbyn gets on the ballot helps democracy within the labour party or the Labour Party's future. Frankly its risible.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    Okay, decision time.

    Do I use my 3 quid vote for Kendall, who I'd quite like to see make a fist of it and do a good job of holding the govt to account - or Corbyn, who makes Ed Miliband look like Margaret Thatcher..?

    Also, from a betting perspective, what chance there's now an organised campaign from rightwingers or UKIP to get Corbyn elected?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,710
    Many people appear to have prematurely jezmed at this news.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Punching the air!

    YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!

    Go Corbyn!

    20 more years!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    oxfordsimon said:

    It is worth £3 of my money to get Corbyn elected. It really is.

    No it isn't, that's like playing Russian Roulette.

    Sure the odds are he won't become PM - but what if he does? It's just not worth the risk.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    For anyone unfamiliar with Mr Corbyn https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Corbyn
    He is considered one of the most left-wing of Labour MPs and is member of the Socialist Campaign Group. He has a weekly column in the Morning Star. A long-time supporter of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND), he is one of its three Vice-Chairs. Before his election to Parliament, he was an elected councillor in the London Borough of Haringey (1974–83). He is on the London Regional Select Committee.

    He was re-elected in 2015 with 60.24% of the vote, and a majority of 21,194.[1]
    and
    He is a long-standing supporter of a United Ireland, inviting Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams to London in 1984.[3][4] He is a prominent Amnesty International member. He campaigned for the trial of the late former Chilean dictator, Augusto Pinochet.

    Corbyn announced in December 2006 that he was considering running for the Labour party deputy leadership to provide an anti-war candidate[5] but later changed his mind as he knew that he almost certain to lose.

    He is one of the signatories to Tony Banks' "Pigeon Bombs" Early Day Motion and Michael Meacher's Climate Change EDM, in stark opposition to his brother, weather forecaster Piers Corbyn's view on climate change.

    According to a BBC article,[citation needed] Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell have signed a petition Calling on UK to lift the ban on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, registered as a terrorist group by the European Union.[6]

    He has campaigned against the Gaza–Israel conflict and promotes the Palestine Solidarity Campaign.

    In early 2013, Corbyn co-signed a letter which was published in The Guardian newspaper that indicated his support for the People's Assembly movement.[7]

    In 2013, Corbyn attended a conference in London, organised by the Argentine Foreign Ministry, calling for dialogue between the UK and Argentine governments on the question of Falkland Island sovereignty.

    In 2013, Corbyn an advocate for dalit rights, told The Indian Express newspaper that caste prejudice was "exported to the U.K. through the Indian Diaspora. The same attitudes of superiority, pollution and separateness appear to be present in South Asian communities now settled in the UK".[8]
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, decision time.

    Do I use my 3 quid vote for Kendall, who I'd quite like to see make a fist of it and do a good job of holding the govt to account - or Corbyn, who makes Ed Miliband look like Margaret Thatcher..?

    Also, from a betting perspective, what chance there's now an organised campaign from rightwingers or UKIP to get Corbyn elected?

    You could always vote for Corybn as first prefs,a nd Kendell second.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, decision time.

    Do I use my 3 quid vote for Kendall, who I'd quite like to see make a fist of it and do a good job of holding the govt to account - or Corbyn, who makes Ed Miliband look like Margaret Thatcher..?

    Also, from a betting perspective, what chance there's now an organised campaign from rightwingers or UKIP to get Corbyn elected?

    It's AV, so you can vote for Jeremy first and Liz second.

    It's such a shame that AV isn't better understood. If only someone would write a thread on AV....
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    JosiasJessop said:

    Many people appear to have prematurely jezmed at this news.

    Twice
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    Slackbladder said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, decision time.

    Do I use my 3 quid vote for Kendall, who I'd quite like to see make a fist of it and do a good job of holding the govt to account - or Corbyn, who makes Ed Miliband look like Margaret Thatcher..?

    Also, from a betting perspective, what chance there's now an organised campaign from rightwingers or UKIP to get Corbyn elected?

    You could always vote for Corybn as first prefs, and Kendell second.
    I like that idea, if only for the look on the faces of the counting team if 100,000 people did the same!
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    I wonder just how much the big Tory backers/bankers would be willing to cough up to register masses of Tory voters as Labour Party members...

    Though perhaps they would just have to make the suggestion on some independent political blog site, and the interested Tories (self-interested?) would do so spontaneously.....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    *takes SCUD missile out of the bunker*
    Disraeli said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, decision time.

    Do I use my 3 quid vote for Kendall, who I'd quite like to see make a fist of it and do a good job of holding the govt to account - or Corbyn, who makes Ed Miliband look like Margaret Thatcher..?

    Also, from a betting perspective, what chance there's now an organised campaign from rightwingers or UKIP to get Corbyn elected?

    It's AV, so you can vote for Jeremy first and Liz second.

    It's such a shame that AV isn't better understood. If only someone would write a thread on AV....
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    Surely when the vote is open to the public Corbyn has a genuine chance of getting enough support from rank and file members of the Labour Party. The leadership and MPs might be dominated by the Islington Clique but surely the wider party want a genuine left wing alternative?

    Maybe not enough to win, but there are surely plenty of them who would like that, just as there were plenty who quite liked the idea of the SNP forcing Ed M to be a bit more lefty.

    I'm inclined to agree with the view this is good for Burnham, no way he can be a loony lefty when a much more obvious lefty is on the ballot.
    It's fantastic, fantastic news. Rejoice, rejoice.

    This ensures ferretry in a sack until September, a damaged winner who's hated by a large chunk of the electors and the likelihood that the winner is Butcher, who gets through on the basis that he will be Kinnock to Miliband's Foot.

    How many kitchens does Corbyn have? Does he have a main one and then like a little one for preparing tea and snacks?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    And... fully laid off at 26.0. Might regret that.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 329
    Having put a bet on Corbyn when it seemed unlikely that he would make it to the ballot paper I am delighted; how do I sign up to vote?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2015
    Blimey, Diane Abbott, Dennis Skinner, Frank Field & Jon Cruddas, are just a few of the nutters that nominated Corbyn..!

    Groucho’s words spring to mind - "I'd never join a club that would have me as a member" :lol:
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :sweat_smile:
    Sandpit said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, decision time.

    Do I use my 3 quid vote for Kendall, who I'd quite like to see make a fist of it and do a good job of holding the govt to account - or Corbyn, who makes Ed Miliband look like Margaret Thatcher..?

    Also, from a betting perspective, what chance there's now an organised campaign from rightwingers or UKIP to get Corbyn elected?

    You could always vote for Corybn as first prefs, and Kendell second.
    I like that idea, if only for the look on the faces of the counting team if 100,000 people did the same!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    franklyn said:

    Having put a bet on Corbyn when it seemed unlikely that he would make it to the ballot paper I am delighted; how do I sign up to vote?

    https://supporters.labour.org.uk/leadership/1
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Philip_Thompson said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    It is worth £3 of my money to get Corbyn elected. It really is.

    No it isn't, that's like playing Russian Roulette.

    Sure the odds are he won't become PM - but what if he does? It's just not worth the risk.
    There is no way he would become PM. He has a very limited appeal to a certain type of voter - and that is all.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Disraeli said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, decision time.

    Do I use my 3 quid vote for Kendall, who I'd quite like to see make a fist of it and do a good job of holding the govt to account - or Corbyn, who makes Ed Miliband look like Margaret Thatcher..?

    Also, from a betting perspective, what chance there's now an organised campaign from rightwingers or UKIP to get Corbyn elected?

    It's AV, so you can vote for Jeremy first and Liz second.

    It's such a shame that AV isn't better understood. If only someone would write a thread on AV....
    Two AV threads are coming this week.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    Disraeli said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, decision time.

    Do I use my 3 quid vote for Kendall, who I'd quite like to see make a fist of it and do a good job of holding the govt to account - or Corbyn, who makes Ed Miliband look like Margaret Thatcher..?

    Also, from a betting perspective, what chance there's now an organised campaign from rightwingers or UKIP to get Corbyn elected?

    It's AV, so you can vote for Jeremy first and Liz second.

    It's such a shame that AV isn't better understood. If only someone would write a thread on AV....
    Don't tempt TSE. Not that he needs much temptation to write an AV thread at some point in the next couple of weeks...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,767
    I think there's a pretty broad consensus among members that Jeremy isn't really going to be the leader, but that it would have been wrong to exclude the left from a voice on the ballot. The fact that Diane Abbott has struggled to win CLPs even in London with just one opponent (on the female side) reflects the sober mood of the members. That said, I don't think he'll be last either - he'll get a decent first ballot result.

    By the way, on the last thread, I was one of David M's team, and I contacted him about something unrelated recently, and took the chance to enquire obliquely about his possible medium-term interest in the leadership. He showed no interest in that and said he was preoccupied with refugee developments in Niger. I think he'll respond to interview requests now he's no longer inhibited by the family thing, but I don't actually think he's actively thinking about plunging back.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    He's famously parsimonious. http://www.islingtongazette.co.uk/news/politics/islington_north_mp_jeremy_corbyn_is_the_country_s_lowest_expenses_claimer_1_748369
    ISLINGTON North MP Jeremy Corbyn was the lowest expenses claimer in the country – after putting in for just £8.70 for an ink cartridge.
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    Surely when the vote is open to the public Corbyn has a genuine chance of getting enough support from rank and file members of the Labour Party. The leadership and MPs might be dominated by the Islington Clique but surely the wider party want a genuine left wing alternative?

    Maybe not enough to win, but there are surely plenty of them who would like that, just as there were plenty who quite liked the idea of the SNP forcing Ed M to be a bit more lefty.

    I'm inclined to agree with the view this is good for Burnham, no way he can be a loony lefty when a much more obvious lefty is on the ballot.
    It's fantastic, fantastic news. Rejoice, rejoice.

    This ensures ferretry in a sack until September, a damaged winner who's hated by a large chunk of the electors and the likelihood that the winner is Butcher, who gets through on the basis that he will be Kinnock to Miliband's Foot.

    How many kitchens does Corbyn have? Does he have a main one and then like a little one for preparing tea and snacks?
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    PClipp said:

    I wonder just how much the big Tory backers/bankers would be willing to cough up to register masses of Tory voters as Labour Party members...

    Though perhaps they would just have to make the suggestion on some independent political blog site, and the interested Tories (self-interested?) would do so spontaneously.....

    They appear to be refraining conspicuously from comment, no doubt following Napoleon's maxim - never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,573
    I still think Cooper is the value bet here now, by a country mile.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited June 2015
    Plato said:

    He's famously parsimonious. http://www.islingtongazette.co.uk/news/politics/islington_north_mp_jeremy_corbyn_is_the_country_s_lowest_expenses_claimer_1_748369

    ISLINGTON North MP Jeremy Corbyn was the lowest expenses claimer in the country – after putting in for just £8.70 for an ink cartridge.
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    Surely when the vote is open to the public Corbyn has a genuine chance of getting enough support from rank and file members of the Labour Party. The leadership and MPs might be dominated by the Islington Clique but surely the wider party want a genuine left wing alternative?

    Maybe not enough to win, but there are surely plenty of them who would like that, just as there were plenty who quite liked the idea of the SNP forcing Ed M to be a bit more lefty.

    I'm inclined to agree with the view this is good for Burnham, no way he can be a loony lefty when a much more obvious lefty is on the ballot.
    It's fantastic, fantastic news. Rejoice, rejoice.

    This ensures ferretry in a sack until September, a damaged winner who's hated by a large chunk of the electors and the likelihood that the winner is Butcher, who gets through on the basis that he will be Kinnock to Miliband's Foot.

    How many kitchens does Corbyn have? Does he have a main one and then like a little one for preparing tea and snacks?


    Is that because he's one of those public sector millionaires?

    edit: I see Emily "look at this ghastly prole's ghastly house festooned with ghastly St George's Cross flags" Thornberry is one of the batshit crazy Corbyn nominators. Is this an attempt to re-burnish her credentials as someone who doesn't really hate proles at all, honestly?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    edited June 2015
    NickPalmer said:

    I think there's a pretty broad consensus among members that Jeremy isn't really going to be the leader, but that it would have been wrong to exclude the left from a voice on the ballot.

    Agree with that Nick, but have they thought through what might happen given that the ballot is effectively open to the public - including those who may not have the best wishes of the Labour party in mind?

    Edit: Looks like Guido is about to become Jeremy's second campaign manager!! :wink:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Jamin2g: Owen Jones is wetting himself. http://t.co/N9bP8UbBuM
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    https://supporters.labour.org.uk/leadership/1
    franklyn said:

    Having put a bet on Corbyn when it seemed unlikely that he would make it to the ballot paper I am delighted; how do I sign up to vote?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited June 2015
    NickPalmer said:

    I think there's a pretty broad consensus among members that Jeremy isn't really going to be the leader, but that it would have been wrong to exclude the left from a voice on the ballot.

    The problem is that members might take the same view about the national scene.

    "There's a fairly strong consensus that Jeremy isn't really going to be the Prime Minister, but it would be wrong to exclude the left from a voice in the General Election."
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Philip_Thompson said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    It is worth £3 of my money to get Corbyn elected. It really is.

    No it isn't, that's like playing Russian Roulette.

    Sure the odds are he won't become PM - but what if he does? It's just not worth the risk.
    The British electorate were too sensible to elect Ed Miliband leader, so they certainly would not put Corbyn in. The bigger concern would be giving three pounds to the Labour party and then not getting Corbyn as leader.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Sandpit said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think there's a pretty broad consensus among members that Jeremy isn't really going to be the leader, but that it would have been wrong to exclude the left from a voice on the ballot.

    Agree with that Nick, but have they thought through what might happen given that the ballot is effectively open to the public - including those who may not have the best wishes of the Labour party in mind?
    Are you suggesting that I don't have the best wishes of the Labour Party in mind?
    Withdraw that, Sir! At once!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Meanwhile, in the other leadership contest, Tim Farron has set a high bar for the contest of cramming the most anachronisms and mistakes into an opening paragraph:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/15/magna-carta-800-years-human-rights-act
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    He's a genuine hairshirter.
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    Plato said:

    He's famously parsimonious. http://www.islingtongazette.co.uk/news/politics/islington_north_mp_jeremy_corbyn_is_the_country_s_lowest_expenses_claimer_1_748369

    ISLINGTON North MP Jeremy Corbyn was the lowest expenses claimer in the country – after putting in for just £8.70 for an ink cartridge.
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    Surely when the vote is open to the public Corbyn has a genuine chance of getting enough support from rank and file members of the Labour Party. The leadership and MPs might be dominated by the Islington Clique but surely the wider party want a genuine left wing alternative?

    Maybe not enough to win, but there are surely plenty of them who would like that, just as there were plenty who quite liked the idea of the SNP forcing Ed M to be a bit more lefty.

    I'm inclined to agree with the view this is good for Burnham, no way he can be a loony lefty when a much more obvious lefty is on the ballot.
    It's fantastic, fantastic news. Rejoice, rejoice.

    This ensures ferretry in a sack until September, a damaged winner who's hated by a large chunk of the electors and the likelihood that the winner is Butcher, who gets through on the basis that he will be Kinnock to Miliband's Foot.

    How many kitchens does Corbyn have? Does he have a main one and then like a little one for preparing tea and snacks?
    Is that because he's one of those public sector millionaires?

    edit: I see Emily "look at this ghastly prole's ghastly house festooned with ghastly St George's Cross flags" Thornberry is one of the batshit crazy Corbyn nominators. Is this to re-burnish her credentials who doesn't really hate proles at all, honestly?

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    @Jamin2g: Owen Jones is wetting himself. http://t.co/N9bP8UbBuM


    Owen Jones and David Cameron finally agree on something.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2015
    Owen Jones is just such fun. If you haven't been blocked - you haven't ever disagreed with him, even politely.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labour in a microcosm - ensure fairness = screwing everyone.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    antifrank said:

    Meanwhile, in the other leadership contest, Tim Farron has set a high bar for the contest of cramming the most anachronisms and mistakes into an opening paragraph:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/15/magna-carta-800-years-human-rights-act

    The Lib Dems...nope, I'm getting a blank. Who were they again?

    Chris Huhne was one, wasn't he? In a way, being banged up in chokey did him a favour. It meant he was the first Lib Dem of 50-odd with basically identical CVs to go and get a job off it.

    Presumably the Scotch ex-LD MPs will be coming soon to a shop doorway in London near you?
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    This is the happiest day since May 8th.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @WikiGuido: Jeremy Corbyn thanks people who 'organised Twitterstorms' and 'wrote poems for the cause' http://t.co/49PSLq70Wo
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    NickPalmer said:

    I think there's a pretty broad consensus among members that Jeremy isn't really going to be the leader, but that it would have been wrong to exclude the left from a voice on the ballot. The fact that Diane Abbott has struggled to win CLPs even in London with just one opponent (on the female side) reflects the sober mood of the members. That said, I don't think he'll be last either - he'll get a decent first ballot result.

    By the way, on the last thread, I was one of David M's team, and I contacted him about something unrelated recently, and took the chance to enquire obliquely about his possible medium-term interest in the leadership. He showed no interest in that and said he was preoccupied with refugee developments in Niger. I think he'll respond to interview requests now he's no longer inhibited by the family thing, but I don't actually think he's actively thinking about plunging back.

    Your first sentence strikes me as odd. While I wish there to be as wide a field as possible (good for all parties to have broad choices available), the left would not in any way have been 'excluded' from the ballot if Corbyn failed to get on it, it's just they would have failed to get enough support to be on it, which is in no way an exclusion, just them having to face up to the fact that not enough people in the parliamentary party feel the same way as them.

    Now the argument may be the barrier to entry was too high, and that seems fair, but it still is not the Left being excluded from anything. If the party wants more Lefty candidates without condescensing charity votes (thankfully not as blatant as the Abbott debacle last time), they should take up the suggestion to change the rules on entry, but the 'I was excluded' line, if it had been used, would have been nothing but whinging. Whinging which would resonate with some of the base I have no doubt, but then perhaps they should consider if they are in the right party if they need to beg and cajole to get a 'proper' lefty to even fight for the leadership.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/610414154294407168
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    edited June 2015
    GeoffM said:

    Sandpit said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think there's a pretty broad consensus among members that Jeremy isn't really going to be the leader, but that it would have been wrong to exclude the left from a voice on the ballot.

    Agree with that Nick, but have they thought through what might happen given that the ballot is effectively open to the public - including those who may not have the best wishes of the Labour party in mind?
    Are you suggesting that I don't have the best wishes of the Labour Party in mind?
    Withdraw that, Sir! At once!
    I was making no suggestion about your good self whatsoever, was being entirely hypothetical!

    Of course there's absolutely no chance of someone like Guido delivering the votes of several thousand right-wingers who hate politicians, no chance at all. I repeat, no chance at all, definitely never going to happen.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: I thought we tested gesture-leftism at ballot box just 39 days ago. Those who backed EdM could recognise reality if not show some humility.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2015
    I don't expect any Tories4Corbyn will shift the vote - but its the taking part that counts.
    Sandpit said:

    GeoffM said:

    Sandpit said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think there's a pretty broad consensus among members that Jeremy isn't really going to be the leader, but that it would have been wrong to exclude the left from a voice on the ballot.

    Agree with that Nick, but have they thought through what might happen given that the ballot is effectively open to the public - including those who may not have the best wishes of the Labour party in mind?
    Are you suggesting that I don't have the best wishes of the Labour Party in mind?
    Withdraw that, Sir! At once!
    I was making no suggestion about your good self whatsoever, was being entirely hypothetical!

    Of course there's absolutely no chance of someone like Guido delivering the votes of several thousand right-wingers who hate politicians, no chance at all. I repeat, no chance at all, definitely never going to happen.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    I just cannot wait for Corbyn to stand up and expound his socialist theories as the way forward for the British people..it is like being thrust back into the 1915 era ..wonderful fun
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,083
    PClipp said:

    I wonder just how much the big Tory backers/bankers would be willing to cough up to register masses of Tory voters as Labour Party members...

    Though perhaps they would just have to make the suggestion on some independent political blog site, and the interested Tories (self-interested?) would do so spontaneously.....

    You too can have a 1 in 240,000 share in electing the Labour leader and putting £3 into their fighting fund. It's a no-brainer!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,325
    Is Corbyn trying to secure the moral low ground from The Greens?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Sandpit said:

    GeoffM said:

    Sandpit said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think there's a pretty broad consensus among members that Jeremy isn't really going to be the leader, but that it would have been wrong to exclude the left from a voice on the ballot.

    Agree with that Nick, but have they thought through what might happen given that the ballot is effectively open to the public - including those who may not have the best wishes of the Labour party in mind?
    Are you suggesting that I don't have the best wishes of the Labour Party in mind?
    Withdraw that, Sir! At once!
    I was making no suggestion about your good self whatsoever, was being entirely hypothetical!

    Of course there's absolutely no chance of someone like Guido delivering the votes of several thousand right-wingers who hate politicians, no chance at all. I repeat, no chance at all, definitely never going to happen.
    Agree, never going to happen. Definitely not.
    And I am glad that we agree that my Corbyn vote is a selfless act to aid the Labour Party and in no way an attempt by me to either screw them royally or win some money. Oh no.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    For a Tory, it is actually a genuinely tough call which of the donkeys in the derby you want to win.

    They are so crap I'd like any of them to win. But who's the crappest? Blimey.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    logical_song said:

    PClipp said:

    I wonder just how much the big Tory backers/bankers would be willing to cough up to register masses of Tory voters as Labour Party members...

    Though perhaps they would just have to make the suggestion on some independent political blog site, and the interested Tories (self-interested?) would do so spontaneously.....

    You too can have a 1 in 240,000 share in electing the Labour leader and putting £3 into their fighting fund. It's a no-brainer!
    A whole £3 into a fighting fund? Really?
    Prescott has thrown up pasties costing more than that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    edited June 2015
    Plato said:

    I don't expect any Tories4Corbyn will shift the vote - but its the taking part that counts.

    Sandpit said:

    GeoffM said:

    Sandpit said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think there's a pretty broad consensus among members that Jeremy isn't really going to be the leader, but that it would have been wrong to exclude the left from a voice on the ballot.

    Agree with that Nick, but have they thought through what might happen given that the ballot is effectively open to the public - including those who may not have the best wishes of the Labour party in mind?
    Are you suggesting that I don't have the best wishes of the Labour Party in mind?
    Withdraw that, Sir! At once!
    I was making no suggestion about your good self whatsoever, was being entirely hypothetical!

    Of course there's absolutely no chance of someone like Guido delivering the votes of several thousand right-wingers who hate politicians, no chance at all. I repeat, no chance at all, definitely never going to happen.
    Can anyone double source the quote from Norman Smith in the header that refers to 241,000 members of the party? Perhaps it also refers to opt-in Union members, with 3,000 the number of associates paying their money?

    If that number is right then any sabotage campaign will need at least 100,000 people to pay their 3 quid. That's both a very big ask and not a bad little earner for the party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Scott_P said:

    @Jamin2g: Owen Jones is wetting himself. http://t.co/N9bP8UbBuM

    I know it's kind of his thing to be the young, very passionate, very lefty pundit, and I've no reason to believe it is not a genuinely held position even if, perhaps, he plays the schtick up a bit, but how do he and his reconcile their enthusiasm for such ideas, which they act as though will naturally be shared by the wider public, with its lack of success even within the Labour party?

    Granted, maybe that's more just a political party thing - how do people get so passionate and believe everyone else must think the same way, when it is demonstrated so often it is not the case.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Plato said:

    I don't expect any Tories4Corbyn will shift the vote - but its the taking part that counts.

    Sandpit said:

    GeoffM said:

    Sandpit said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think there's a pretty broad consensus among members that Jeremy isn't really going to be the leader, but that it would have been wrong to exclude the left from a voice on the ballot.

    Agree with that Nick, but have they thought through what might happen given that the ballot is effectively open to the public - including those who may not have the best wishes of the Labour party in mind?
    Are you suggesting that I don't have the best wishes of the Labour Party in mind?
    Withdraw that, Sir! At once!
    I was making no suggestion about your good self whatsoever, was being entirely hypothetical!

    Of course there's absolutely no chance of someone like Guido delivering the votes of several thousand right-wingers who hate politicians, no chance at all. I repeat, no chance at all, definitely never going to happen.
    You've got to be in it to win it!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'd be genuinely surprised if Labour made much from £3 memberships - after payment processing et al. It's a tiddly one off sum.
    GeoffM said:

    logical_song said:

    PClipp said:

    I wonder just how much the big Tory backers/bankers would be willing to cough up to register masses of Tory voters as Labour Party members...

    Though perhaps they would just have to make the suggestion on some independent political blog site, and the interested Tories (self-interested?) would do so spontaneously.....

    You too can have a 1 in 240,000 share in electing the Labour leader and putting £3 into their fighting fund. It's a no-brainer!
    A whole £3 into a fighting fund? Really?
    Prescott has thrown up pasties costing more than that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,573
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    For a Tory, it is actually a genuinely tough call which of the donkeys in the derby you want to win.

    They are so crap I'd like any of them to win. But who's the crappest? Blimey.

    thinking tories might fear Cooper most as the leader most capable of causing trouble for them in house of commons.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I think his mum played Billy Elliott on a loop until he was at least 8yrs old.
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Jamin2g: Owen Jones is wetting himself. http://t.co/N9bP8UbBuM

    I know it's kind of his thing to be the young, very passionate, very lefty pundit, and I've no reason to believe it is not a genuinely held position even if, perhaps, he plays the schtick up a bit, but how do he and his reconcile their enthusiasm for such ideas, which they act as though will naturally be shared by the wider public, with its lack of success even within the Labour party?

    Granted, maybe that's more just a political party thing - how do people get so passionate and believe everyone else must think the same way, when it is demonstrated so often it is not the case.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    rottenborough said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    For a Tory, it is actually a genuinely tough call which of the donkeys in the derby you want to win.

    They are so crap I'd like any of them to win. But who's the crappest? Blimey.

    thinking tories might fear Cooper most as the leader most capable of causing trouble for them in house of commons.
    That sounds plausible but Cooper has always been better on paper than in reality. She hasn't laid a glove on Theresa May for instance.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,083
    GeoffM said:

    logical_song said:

    PClipp said:

    I wonder just how much the big Tory backers/bankers would be willing to cough up to register masses of Tory voters as Labour Party members...

    Though perhaps they would just have to make the suggestion on some independent political blog site, and the interested Tories (self-interested?) would do so spontaneously.....

    You too can have a 1 in 240,000 share in electing the Labour leader and putting £3 into their fighting fund. It's a no-brainer!
    A whole £3 into a fighting fund? Really?
    Prescott has thrown up pasties costing more than that.
    As usual you're missing the point, it's the 1 in 240,000 that matters. I thought that people on here would be good at odds. Still it's your£3 you spend it as you want.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    I don't expect any Tories4Corbyn will shift the vote - but its the taking part that counts.

    Sandpit said:

    GeoffM said:

    Sandpit said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I think there's a pretty broad consensus among members that Jeremy isn't really going to be the leader, but that it would have been wrong to exclude the left from a voice on the ballot.

    Agree with that Nick, but have they thought through what might happen given that the ballot is effectively open to the public - including those who may not have the best wishes of the Labour party in mind?
    Are you suggesting that I don't have the best wishes of the Labour Party in mind?
    Withdraw that, Sir! At once!
    I was making no suggestion about your good self whatsoever, was being entirely hypothetical!

    Of course there's absolutely no chance of someone like Guido delivering the votes of several thousand right-wingers who hate politicians, no chance at all. I repeat, no chance at all, definitely never going to happen.
    Can anyone double source the quote from Norman Smith in the header that refers to 241,000 members of the party? Perhaps it also refers to opt-in Union members, with 3,000 the number of associates paying their money?

    If that number is right then any sabotage campaign will need at least 100,000 people to pay their 3 quid. That's both a very big ask and not a bad little earner for the party.
    Membership (not union) turnout last time was about 125k.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    She did nothing when in HMG and nothing as SFSec or SHome - I'd be concerned if Liz wins.
    rottenborough said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    For a Tory, it is actually a genuinely tough call which of the donkeys in the derby you want to win.

    They are so crap I'd like any of them to win. But who's the crappest? Blimey.

    thinking tories might fear Cooper most as the leader most capable of causing trouble for them in house of commons.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,573
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Jamin2g: Owen Jones is wetting himself. http://t.co/N9bP8UbBuM

    I know it's kind of his thing to be the young, very passionate, very lefty pundit, and I've no reason to believe it is not a genuinely held position even if, perhaps, he plays the schtick up a bit, but how do he and his reconcile their enthusiasm for such ideas, which they act as though will naturally be shared by the wider public, with its lack of success even within the Labour party?

    Granted, maybe that's more just a political party thing - how do people get so passionate and believe everyone else must think the same way, when it is demonstrated so often it is not the case.
    i believe marx called it 'false consciousness'.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,340
    edited June 2015
    As a Labour supporter I have to say, were the positions to be reversed, there is no way I'd pay £3 to the Tories just so I could get to vote for Nadine Dorries as party leader.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Well quite.
    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Jamin2g: Owen Jones is wetting himself. http://t.co/N9bP8UbBuM

    I know it's kind of his thing to be the young, very passionate, very lefty pundit, and I've no reason to believe it is not a genuinely held position even if, perhaps, he plays the schtick up a bit, but how do he and his reconcile their enthusiasm for such ideas, which they act as though will naturally be shared by the wider public, with its lack of success even within the Labour party?

    Granted, maybe that's more just a political party thing - how do people get so passionate and believe everyone else must think the same way, when it is demonstrated so often it is not the case.
    i believe marx called it 'false consciousness'.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,299
    Well. I am pleased that the PLP have given us a choice of 4 rather than 3. I would have been more pleased if they had given us a choice of 5.

    Now to decide if I give my first pref to JC...
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    logical_song said:

    GeoffM said:

    logical_song said:

    PClipp said:

    I wonder just how much the big Tory backers/bankers would be willing to cough up to register masses of Tory voters as Labour Party members...

    Though perhaps they would just have to make the suggestion on some independent political blog site, and the interested Tories (self-interested?) would do so spontaneously.....

    You too can have a 1 in 240,000 share in electing the Labour leader and putting £3 into their fighting fund. It's a no-brainer!
    A whole £3 into a fighting fund? Really?
    Prescott has thrown up pasties costing more than that.
    As usual you're missing the point, it's the 1 in 240,000 that matters. I thought that people on here would be good at odds. Still it's your£3 you spend it as you want.

    Say 60% vote - that's 144,000 votes.

    Split 4 ways is approx 36,000.

    So you only need to beat that...

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    £3 divided by 365 x 5yrs - that's value, only 0.16p a day!
    ThomasNashe said:

    As a Labour supporter I have to say, were the positions to be reversed, there is no way I'd pay £3 to the Tories just so I could get to vote for Nadine Dorries as party leader.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    edited June 2015
    rottenborough said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    For a Tory, it is actually a genuinely tough call which of the donkeys in the derby you want to win.

    They are so crap I'd like any of them to win. But who's the crappest? Blimey.

    thinking tories might fear Cooper most as the leader most capable of causing trouble for them in house of commons.
    I'd think they'd be most happy to have Burnham (or Corbyn, obviously!) and least likely to have Kendall leading Labour, with Yvette somewhere in the middle.

    On the subject of leaders, watching Cameron addressing the Magna Carta celebrations - he is really good at making public speeches at these big apolitical national events.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    There seems to be a blanket assumption that trade union members are a bunch of zealous Stalinists. They aren't. I doubt most union members ever really give thought to their union's political position; for most their union is there to give them recourse against unfair treatment by their employer.

    Union leaders are far, far from being representative of their base (remember that YouGov poll of how teachers voted in 2010?).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,573
    Who would the various Lab leader candidates be most likely to pick as Shadow Chancellor? Surely the key post in next few years.

    Chukka seems to be making a pitch for the job.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,340
    Fwiw, at the moment my vote would be 1) Kendall, 2) Burnham, 3) Cooper, 4) Corbyn. 1-3 are not fixed and could be influenced by the campaign, but I'm 100% certain about who is going to be 4.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,619
    MarkHopkins said:

    logical_song said:

    GeoffM said:

    logical_song said:

    PClipp said:

    I wonder just how much the big Tory backers/bankers would be willing to cough up to register masses of Tory voters as Labour Party members...

    Though perhaps they would just have to make the suggestion on some independent political blog site, and the interested Tories (self-interested?) would do so spontaneously.....

    You too can have a 1 in 240,000 share in electing the Labour leader and putting £3 into their fighting fund. It's a no-brainer!
    A whole £3 into a fighting fund? Really?
    Prescott has thrown up pasties costing more than that.
    As usual you're missing the point, it's the 1 in 240,000 that matters. I thought that people on here would be good at odds. Still it's your£3 you spend it as you want.

    Say 60% vote - that's 144,000 votes.

    Split 4 ways is approx 36,000.

    So you only need to beat that...

    It's AV though - the winner will have more than 50% of the vote, assuming they are all filled in to completion of course.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2015
    .
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    ThomasNashe said:

    Fwiw, at the moment my vote would be 1) Kendall, 2) Burnham, 3) Cooper, 4) Corbyn. 1-3 are not fixed and could be influenced by the campaign, but I'm 100% certain about who is going to be 4.


    But it's AV. So why don't you put Corbyn first, then choose who you really want second.

    Seems fair?

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    When a Labour candidate can do this - then we're talking.
    Plato said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mlegd6fTh4

    Sandpit said:

    rottenborough said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    For a Tory, it is actually a genuinely tough call which of the donkeys in the derby you want to win.

    They are so crap I'd like any of them to win. But who's the crappest? Blimey.

    thinking tories might fear Cooper most as the leader most capable of causing trouble for them in house of commons.
    I'd think they'd be most happy to have Burnham (or Corbyn, obviously!) and least likely to have Kendall leading Labour, with Yvette somewhere in the middle.

    On the subject of leaders, watching Cameron addressing the Magna Carta celebrations - he is really good at making public speeches at these big apolitical national events.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Tissue_Price said:

    And... fully laid off at 26.0. Might regret that.

    Given that you got on at 150, I doubt you'll regret it that much...
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,340
    MarkHopkins said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Fwiw, at the moment my vote would be 1) Kendall, 2) Burnham, 3) Cooper, 4) Corbyn. 1-3 are not fixed and could be influenced by the campaign, but I'm 100% certain about who is going to be 4.


    But it's AV. So why don't you put Corbyn first, then choose who you really want second.

    Seems fair?

    Don't think that's how AV works, but maybe we could all do with a lesson on its principles - perhaps TSE could do a thread?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Who benefits from Jeremy Corbyn being on the ballot? Why, the SNP of course:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jun/15/labour-leadership-nominations-close-at-noon-politics-live

    13:11
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited June 2015
    Plato said:

    When a Labour candidate can do this - then we're talking.

    Plato said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mlegd6fTh4

    Sandpit said:

    rottenborough said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    For a Tory, it is actually a genuinely tough call which of the donkeys in the derby you want to win.

    They are so crap I'd like any of them to win. But who's the crappest? Blimey.

    thinking tories might fear Cooper most as the leader most capable of causing trouble for them in house of commons.
    I'd think they'd be most happy to have Burnham (or Corbyn, obviously!) and least likely to have Kendall leading Labour, with Yvette somewhere in the middle.

    On the subject of leaders, watching Cameron addressing the Magna Carta celebrations - he is really good at making public speeches at these big apolitical national events.
    Is that Gary O'Donoghue "falling asleep" to David Davis?!

    Edit: Incidentally Corbyn should swallow his pride and follow Cameron's example. Talk with passion, without notes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    edited June 2015
    ThomasNashe said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Fwiw, at the moment my vote would be 1) Kendall, 2) Burnham, 3) Cooper, 4) Corbyn. 1-3 are not fixed and could be influenced by the campaign, but I'm 100% certain about who is going to be 4.


    But it's AV. So why don't you put Corbyn first, then choose who you really want second.

    Seems fair?

    Don't think that's how AV works, but maybe we could all do with a lesson on its principles - perhaps TSE could do a thread?
    I understand the overwhelming desire for regular threads on AV, I shall endeavour to keep PBers happy over the next fortnight.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    antifrank said:

    Meanwhile, in the other leadership contest, Tim Farron has set a high bar for the contest of cramming the most anachronisms and mistakes into an opening paragraph:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/15/magna-carta-800-years-human-rights-act

    Why I'll be voting for Lamb.

    I understand why most will want a galvaniser/unifier/grandstander to lead a kind of street-fighting comeback, and Farron is perceived to be that candidate - but I think he's too intellectually weak to sustain a charge from the left, and is too open to caricature as a low-rent student politics agitator. He could actually kill the party.

    Lamb is less charismatic and more cerebral, but can position the LDs as a genuinely liberal party with specific policies - e.g. on cannabis - that the other parties won't touch.

    Mind you, my political gut is not the most reliable judge, as my 8/5/15 profit/loss spreadsheet attests.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Ghedebrav said:

    antifrank said:

    Meanwhile, in the other leadership contest, Tim Farron has set a high bar for the contest of cramming the most anachronisms and mistakes into an opening paragraph:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/15/magna-carta-800-years-human-rights-act

    Why I'll be voting for Lamb.

    I understand why most will want a galvaniser/unifier/grandstander to lead a kind of street-fighting comeback, and Farron is perceived to be that candidate - but I think he's too intellectually weak to sustain a charge from the left, and is too open to caricature as a low-rent student politics agitator. He could actually kill the party.

    Lamb is less charismatic and more cerebral, but can position the LDs as a genuinely liberal party with specific policies - e.g. on cannabis - that the other parties won't touch.

    Mind you, my political gut is not the most reliable judge, as my 8/5/15 profit/loss spreadsheet attests.
    Why does it matter who you vote for or who's leader? The LDs are over.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,340
    Ghedebrav said:

    antifrank said:

    Meanwhile, in the other leadership contest, Tim Farron has set a high bar for the contest of cramming the most anachronisms and mistakes into an opening paragraph:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/15/magna-carta-800-years-human-rights-act

    Why I'll be voting for Lamb.

    I understand why most will want a galvaniser/unifier/grandstander to lead a kind of street-fighting comeback, and Farron is perceived to be that candidate - but I think he's too intellectually weak to sustain a charge from the left, and is too open to caricature as a low-rent student politics agitator. He could actually kill the party.

    Lamb is less charismatic and more cerebral, but can position the LDs as a genuinely liberal party with specific policies - e.g. on cannabis - that the other parties won't touch.

    Mind you, my political gut is not the most reliable judge, as my 8/5/15 profit/loss spreadsheet attests.
    Yes, must say I remain mystified as to the appeal of Farron. From the outside Lamb seems to me manifestly superior, and yet Farron is the overwhelming favourite?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    From a vaguely partisan Lib Dem position, I guess we'd be:
    delighted if Jeremy Corbyn won, as that would trigger Labour infighting and leave a wide open gap for others
    relaxed if Yvette won, as her ministerial record is terrible (Home Information Packs and Cheif Secretary to the Treasury when the banks crashed) and her shrill authoritarian tone puts waverers off.
    concerned if Andy Burnham won, as he's clearly a good speaker and good at hitting LD weak points. A particular concern is that he's similar in style to Tim Farron and not sure how that might work.
    in serious trouble if Liz Kendall won.
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