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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hard to justify Tim Farron’s 1/7 favourite odds after seeing this Andrew Neil grilling
LD leadership contender Tim Farron given tough interview by @afneil http://t.co/knfDPlT53v
Comments
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First ! But who cares anymore ?
I like Farron like I did Kennedy.0 -
FPT: Mary Hopkins
From the article...
"And [Cooper's] charisma shines through as she recalls the pivotal moment in 1988 that set her off on the journey to Westminster."
Huh? She was already doing a PPE degree at Oxford by 1988.
Many PPE degree holders do not enter politics !
She was already highly political at that point, the idea that her gran's pension being cut suddenly changed things is farcical.
Were you there at the time ?0 -
surbiton said:
FPT: Mary Hopkins
From the article...
"And [Cooper's] charisma shines through as she recalls the pivotal moment in 1988 that set her off on the journey to Westminster."
Huh? She was already doing a PPE degree at Oxford by 1988.
Many PPE degree holders do not enter politics !
She was already highly political at that point, the idea that her gran's pension being cut suddenly changed things is farcical.
Were you there at the time ?
Why is that relevant?
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Notme (last thread) You are forgetting at election 2015 Miliband polled behind his party, Cameron ahead of his, at the next election the brands of both will change with different leaders for both, plus the EU ref could lead to Tory splits etc already today Osborne is apparently not going to be able to implement the full scale of welfare cuts he promised hoping for economic growth to pick up the slack in cutting the deficit, meaning his deficit target could be missed again0
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Because you wrote as an expert "She was already highly political at that point" . How the hell did you know ?MarkHopkins said:surbiton said:FPT: Mary Hopkins
From the article...
"And [Cooper's] charisma shines through as she recalls the pivotal moment in 1988 that set her off on the journey to Westminster."
Huh? She was already doing a PPE degree at Oxford by 1988.
Many PPE degree holders do not enter politics !
She was already highly political at that point, the idea that her gran's pension being cut suddenly changed things is farcical.
Were you there at the time ?
Why is that relevant?0 -
notme (last thread) No reason those who want the higher benefit cannot opt-in to paying higher NI contributions to get it, with basic JSA left unchanged0
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Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times0
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Actually, smart politics from Osborne. But in our "where will the money come from" media no party can actually say that during a campaign. Despite everyone knows growth brings in more tax revenue and inflation reduces real debt.HYUFD said:Notme (last thread) You are forgetting at election 2015 Miliband polled behind his party, Cameron ahead of his, at the next election the brands of both will change with different leaders for both, plus the EU ref could lead to Tory splits etc already today Osborne is apparently not going to be able to implement the full scale of welfare cuts he promised hoping for economic growth to pick up the slack in cutting the deficit, meaning his deficit target could be missed again
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Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
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surbiton said:
Because you wrote as an expert "She was already highly political at that point" . How the hell did you know ?MarkHopkins said:surbiton said:FPT: Mary Hopkins
From the article...
"And [Cooper's] charisma shines through as she recalls the pivotal moment in 1988 that set her off on the journey to Westminster."
Huh? She was already doing a PPE degree at Oxford by 1988.
Many PPE degree holders do not enter politics !
She was already highly political at that point, the idea that her gran's pension being cut suddenly changed things is farcical.
Were you there at the time ?
Why is that relevant?
Yes. I was there.
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Bring Back Paddy!
Paddy, Paddy, Paddy.
In. In. In.0 -
I thought Farrin came across well and mostly defended himself against tough questions. Certainly a lot better than Kendall who couldn't even give her own views on whether she supported a policy or not. I can understand the situation when your party hasn't agreed a line yet, but as a leadership contender she's only speaking for herself! I don't understand why interviewers tolerate this 'we'll have to look at that' fudge answer. Who's 'we'? You and your spin doctors?0
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Surbiton Agree, Farron represents a rural Cumbrian seat, he can win back some of the rural and suburban, spa town and cathedral city seats Ashdown won in 1992 and/or 1997 from the Tories, helped by Labour tactical voting. The inner city seats the LDs won from Labour under Kennedy in 2001 and particularly in 2005 are probably gone for the LDs for good0
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Good.MarkHopkins said:surbiton said:
Because you wrote as an expert "She was already highly political at that point" . How the hell did you know ?MarkHopkins said:surbiton said:FPT: Mary Hopkins
From the article...
"And [Cooper's] charisma shines through as she recalls the pivotal moment in 1988 that set her off on the journey to Westminster."
Huh? She was already doing a PPE degree at Oxford by 1988.
Many PPE degree holders do not enter politics !
She was already highly political at that point, the idea that her gran's pension being cut suddenly changed things is farcical.
Were you there at the time ?
Why is that relevant?
Yes. I was there.0 -
My Chris Huhne as next Lib Dem leader betting slip isn't looking so bad now after this interview.
It would be the greatest comeback since Lazarus or Istanbul0 -
Since Peter Mandleson more like.TheScreamingEagles said:My Chris Huhne as next Lib Dem leader betting slip isn't looking so bad now after this interview.
It would be the greatest comeback since Lazarus or Istanbul0 -
Have you ever canvassed in the South West? It's a very conservative place. The issue the Conservatives have always had there is they were seen as a party for London and the Home Counties. The Lib Dems capitalised on that with a voice for the Westcountry message based on incumbent MPs being local champions. Now the incumbent Tory MPs can differentiate themselves from the CCHQ brand the Lib Dems are stranded. Their pro-EU, civil liberties, reduce prison sentences line isn't going to win back these seats. The future for the Lib Dems is probably a move left under Farron, a small but stilted recovery, and a merger with Labour.surbiton said:
Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
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surbiton Osborne will need to hope economic growth keeps up at the same pace then, if it slows down and he misses his deficit target again because of a refusal to take tough enough decisions on welfare spending the Tory press will be merciless0
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On the basis of the comments so far he struggles most with name recognition.0
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I live in one of those seats. From a Labour perspective, some of these seats will remain Tory even in 2020, whatever happens. There is nothing intrinsically Tory about Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Sutton & Cheam, Wimbledon. If Mitcham & Morden can be safe Labour, so can the others, certainly in a good Labour year. Richmond is a different story.HYUFD said:Surbiton Agree, Farron represents a rural Cumbrian seat, he can win back some of the rural and suburban, spa town and cathedral city seats Ashdown won in 1992 and/or 1997 from the Tories, helped by Labour tactical voting. The inner city seats Labour won from the Tories under Kennedy in 2001 and particularly in 2005 are probably gone for the LDs for good
Look at Hallam. Labour are now second favourites and if Clegg goes there will be leakage of LD support to the Tories. Labour could then win the seat for the first time ever.0 -
Did I say Labour could win in the South West ? Where ? Lib Dems can as they have done so over a century.surbiton said:
I live in one of those seats. From a Labour perspective, some of these seats will remain Tory even in 2020, whatever happens. There is nothing intrinsically Tory about Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Sutton & Cheam, Wimbledon. If Mitcham & Morden can be safe Labour, so can the others, certainly in a good Labour year. Richmond is a different story.HYUFD said:Surbiton Agree, Farron represents a rural Cumbrian seat, he can win back some of the rural and suburban, spa town and cathedral city seats Ashdown won in 1992 and/or 1997 from the Tories, helped by Labour tactical voting. The inner city seats Labour won from the Tories under Kennedy in 2001 and particularly in 2005 are probably gone for the LDs for good
Look at Hallam. Labour are now second favourites and if Clegg goes there will be leakage of LD support to the Tories. Labour could then win the seat for the first time ever.0 -
surbiton said:surbiton said:
I live in one of those seats. From a Labour perspective, some of these seats will remain Tory even in 2020, whatever happens. There is nothing intrinsically Tory about Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Sutton & Cheam, Wimbledon. If Mitcham & Morden can be safe Labour, so can the others, certainly in a good Labour year. Richmond is a different story.HYUFD said:Surbiton Agree, Farron represents a rural Cumbrian seat, he can win back some of the rural and suburban, spa town and cathedral city seats Ashdown won in 1992 and/or 1997 from the Tories, helped by Labour tactical voting. The inner city seats Labour won from the Tories under Kennedy in 2001 and particularly in 2005 are probably gone for the LDs for good
Look at Hallam. Labour are now second favourites and if Clegg goes there will be leakage of LD support to the Tories. Labour could then win the seat for the first time ever.0 -
Did I say Labour could win in the South West ? Where ? Lib Dems can as they have done so over a centuryJEO said:
Have you ever canvassed in the South West? It's a very conservative place. The issue the Conservatives have always had there is they were seen as a party for London and the Home Counties. The Lib Dems capitalised on that with a voice for the Westcountry message based on incumbent MPs being local champions. Now the incumbent Tory MPs can differentiate themselves from the CCHQ brand the Lib Dems are stranded. Their pro-EU, civil liberties, reduce prison sentences line isn't going to win back these seats. The future for the Lib Dems is probably a move left under Farron, a small but stilted recovery, and a merger with Labour.surbiton said:
Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
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How can you all differentiate yourselves when you have a 10-seat majority?JEO said:
Have you ever canvassed in the South West? It's a very conservative place. The issue the Conservatives have always had there is they were seen as a party for London and the Home Counties. The Lib Dems capitalised on that with a voice for the Westcountry message based on incumbent MPs being local champions. Now the incumbent Tory MPs can differentiate themselves from the CCHQ brand the Lib Dems are stranded. Their pro-EU, civil liberties, reduce prison sentences line isn't going to win back these seats. The future for the Lib Dems is probably a move left under Farron, a small but stilted recovery, and a merger with Labour.surbiton said:
Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
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As far as Colchester, the LibDems have no chance of taking it back. More likely to lose the councillors they do have.0
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It seems very very foolish to assume that every election in the future will look like 2015. One day the Conservative Party will win 200 seats again. The question is what the rest of the House of Commons will look like at that time.0
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Labour will be back in power in 2025, IMO.EPG said:It seems very very foolish to assume that every election in the future will look like 2015. One day the Conservative Party will win 200 seats again. The question is what the rest of the House of Commons will look like at that time.
15 years of Con will be enough....
We have to have Labour governments to over-spend, bankrupt the country and give the Tories something to do, LOL!
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JEO The LDs would not merge with Labour, Labour is too illiberal for their core, a merger with the Greens would be more likely, or more probably a pact0
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With the statist Greens?HYUFD said:JEO The LDs would not merge with Labour, Labour is too illiberal for their core, a merger with the Greens would be more likely, or more probably a pact
For the SDP that may have been an option - but it isn't for the LibDems.0 -
Surbiton Possibly, but the LDs were still in second in most of those seats even in 2015 and they have never elected a Labour MP before0
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You get yourself in the local paper a lot, go to local events, fight for keeping local hospitals and police stations open, weigh in on local road and rail planning, argue for local culture more (especially in Cornwall), moan about London centralisation. That's what the Lib Dems did.EPG said:
How can you all differentiate yourselves when you have a 10-seat majority?JEO said:
Have you ever canvassed in the South West? It's a very conservative place. The issue the Conservatives have always had there is they were seen as a party for London and the Home Counties. The Lib Dems capitalised on that with a voice for the Westcountry message based on incumbent MPs being local champions. Now the incumbent Tory MPs can differentiate themselves from the CCHQ brand the Lib Dems are stranded. Their pro-EU, civil liberties, reduce prison sentences line isn't going to win back these seats. The future for the Lib Dems is probably a move left under Farron, a small but stilted recovery, and a merger with Labour.surbiton said:
Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
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I would like to hear an argument as to why Farron's interview was that bad to the advantage of Norman Lamb.
Lamb's campaign is solely powered by the advice of the Lib Dem grandees, but they were the handmaidens of Coalition that left the Lib Dems with 8 MPs, so maybe the members won't listen to them as closely this time.0 -
Surbiton Indeed, even in 1997 and 2001 outside of Plymouth, Stroud, Swindon, Bristol, Gloucester, Exeter and Falmouth and Cambourne which had Labour seats everywhere else in the South West the battle was between the LDs and the Tories0
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The Lib Dems could do it because they weren't in a small minority government. The minute they were, they got hammered. Similarly Conservative MPs will inevitably be unable to do these time-consuming and individual things because they will have to be voting in Westminster for Osborne's London centralisation etc.JEO said:
You get yourself in the local paper a lot, go to local events, fight for keeping local hospitals and police stations open, weigh in on local road and rail planning, argue for local culture more (especially in Cornwall), moan about London centralisation. That's what the Lib Dems did.EPG said:
How can you all differentiate yourselves when you have a 10-seat majority?JEO said:
Have you ever canvassed in the South West? It's a very conservative place. The issue the Conservatives have always had there is they were seen as a party for London and the Home Counties. The Lib Dems capitalised on that with a voice for the Westcountry message based on incumbent MPs being local champions. Now the incumbent Tory MPs can differentiate themselves from the CCHQ brand the Lib Dems are stranded. Their pro-EU, civil liberties, reduce prison sentences line isn't going to win back these seats. The future for the Lib Dems is probably a move left under Farron, a small but stilted recovery, and a merger with Labour.surbiton said:
Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
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And its what all those Tory MPs who won on waiver thin margins in 2010 did, who got a solid boost on incumbency. A nearby MP tripled his majority on 2010 by doing just that. The Labour candidate on the door step and in the press tried to paint him as an 'invisible MP', it didnt hold traction.JEO said:
You get yourself in the local paper a lot, go to local events, fight for keeping local hospitals and police stations open, weigh in on local road and rail planning, argue for local culture more (especially in Cornwall), moan about London centralisation. That's what the Lib Dems did.EPG said:
How can you all differentiate yourselves when you have a 10-seat majority?JEO said:
Have you ever canvassed in the South West? It's a very conservative place. The issue the Conservatives have always had there is they were seen as a party for London and the Home Counties. The Lib Dems capitalised on that with a voice for the Westcountry message based on incumbent MPs being local champions. Now the incumbent Tory MPs can differentiate themselves from the CCHQ brand the Lib Dems are stranded. Their pro-EU, civil liberties, reduce prison sentences line isn't going to win back these seats. The future for the Lib Dems is probably a move left under Farron, a small but stilted recovery, and a merger with Labour.surbiton said:
Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
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TWR It would not be for Clegg's LDs, Farron's LDs will be statist on the economy, liberal on social issues and civil liberties and pacifist, ie very close to the Green Party's agenda0
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I agree. What rural LD seats have in common is that Westminster seems a very long way away. That is also true for Tory rural seats, like mine, of course, but the way to win votes is to pitch local.notme said:
And its what all those Tory MPs who won on waiver thin margins in 2010 did, who got a solid boost on incumbency. A nearby MP tripled his majority on 2010 by doing just that. The Labour candidate on the door step and in the press tried to paint him as an 'invisible MP', it didnt hold traction.JEO said:
You get yourself in the local paper a lot, go to local events, fight for keeping local hospitals and police stations open, weigh in on local road and rail planning, argue for local culture more (especially in Cornwall), moan about London centralisation. That's what the Lib Dems did.EPG said:
How can you all differentiate yourselves when you have a 10-seat majority?JEO said:
Have you ever canvassed in the South West? It's a very conservative place. The issue the Conservatives have always had there is they were seen as a party for London and the Home Counties. The Lib Dems capitalised on that with a voice for the Westcountry message based on incumbent MPs being local champions. Now the incumbent Tory MPs can differentiate themselves from the CCHQ brand the Lib Dems are stranded. Their pro-EU, civil liberties, reduce prison sentences line isn't going to win back these seats. The future for the Lib Dems is probably a move left under Farron, a small but stilted recovery, and a merger with Labour.surbiton said:
Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
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The old "spend the parliament in prison for conspiracy to pervert the course of justice" blame-avoidance strategy, works every time.TheScreamingEagles said:My Chris Huhne as next Lib Dem leader betting slip isn't looking so bad now after this interview.
It would be the greatest comeback since Lazarus or Istanbul0 -
Can someone who has been to prison for a crime be voted in as leader of a Political Party0
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IMO, NO!richardDodd said:Can someone who has been to prison for a crime be voted in as leader of a Political Party
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Why not ? Apart from the prison bit, they all have done some criminal act. Do they not drive at over 70 mph ?richardDodd said:Can someone who has been to prison for a crime be voted in as leader of a Political Party
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GIN1138 I doubt Labour will elect anyone quite as messianic about foreign wars as Blair anytime soon0
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LibDems have a strigent rule book - would be worth a check if you did think it was politically possible.surbiton said:
Why not ? Apart from the prison bit, they all have done some criminal act. Do they not drive at over 70 mph ?richardDodd said:Can someone who has been to prison for a crime be voted in as leader of a Political Party
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sSrbiton the person in question lied to the court,an act of perjury..and was convicted of pervrting the course of justice..not for speeding.0
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Ironically, it is a rulebook written by Tim Farron that acts as the backbone. Nothing happens in Westmorland without him turning up, being photographed, press released and a story appearing in the Westmorland Gazette. Every school gets a visit, awards evenings, sports days you name it. He is there.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I agree. What rural LD seats have in common is that Westminster seems a very long way away. That is also true for Tory rural seats, like mine, of course, but the way to win votes is to pitch local.notme said:
And its what all those Tory MPs who won on waiver thin margins in 2010 did, who got a solid boost on incumbency. A nearby MP tripled his majority on 2010 by doing just that. The Labour candidate on the door step and in the press tried to paint him as an 'invisible MP', it didnt hold traction.JEO said:
You get yourself in the local paper a lot, go to local events, fight for keeping local hospitals and police stations open, weigh in on local road and rail planning, argue for local culture more (especially in Cornwall), moan about London centralisation. That's what the Lib Dems did.EPG said:
How can you all differentiate yourselves when you have a 10-seat majority?JEO said:
Have you ever canvassed in the South West? It's a very conservative place. The issue the Conservatives have always had there is they were seen as a party for London and the Home Counties. The Lib Dems capitalised on that with a voice for the Westcountry message based on incumbent MPs being local champions. Now the incumbent Tory MPs can differentiate themselves from the CCHQ brand the Lib Dems are stranded. Their pro-EU, civil liberties, reduce prison sentences line isn't going to win back these seats. The future for the Lib Dems is probably a move left under Farron, a small but stilted recovery, and a merger with Labour.surbiton said:
Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
Whatever the situation, he presents himself as standing up for his constituency. That's how you go from a 260 majority to a 12,260 majority...0 -
TWR The Tories won 38% in Colchester, the LDs 27%, Labour 16%, it could go back through Labour tactical votes0
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Bob Russell pointed at every pothole, shook the hand of every under-14s swimming contest champion, etc, but that did him no good this time round. But it was a good approach.notme said:
Ironically, it is a rulebook written by Tim Farron that acts as the backbone. Nothing happens in Westmorland without him turning up, being photographed, press released and a story appearing in the Westmorland Gazette. Every school gets a visit, awards evenings, sports days you name it. He is there.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I agree. What rural LD seats have in common is that Westminster seems a very long way away. That is also true for Tory rural seats, like mine, of course, but the way to win votes is to pitch local.notme said:
And its what all those Tory MPs who won on waiver thin margins in 2010 did, who got a solid boost on incumbency. A nearby MP tripled his majority on 2010 by doing just that. The Labour candidate on the door step and in the press tried to paint him as an 'invisible MP', it didnt hold traction.JEO said:
You get yourself in the local paper a lot, go to local events, fight for keeping local hospitals and police stations open, weigh in on local road and rail planning, argue for local culture more (especially in Cornwall), moan about London centralisation. That's what the Lib Dems did.EPG said:
How can you all differentiate yourselves when you have a 10-seat majority?JEO said:
Have you ever canvassed in the South West? It's a very conservative place. [....] Their pro-EU, civil liberties, reduce prison sentences line isn't going to win back these seats. The future for the Lib Dems is probably a move left under Farron, a small but stilted recovery, and a merger with Labour.surbiton said:
Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
Whatever the situation, he presents himself as standing up for his constituency. That's how you go from a 260 majority to a 12,260 majority...0 -
Politicians kiss babies, shock horror. Yes the electorate were born yesterday. Not.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bob Russell pointed at every pothole, shook the hand of every under-14s swimming contest champion, etc, but that did him no good this time round. But it was a good approach.notme said:
Ironically, it is a rulebook written by Tim Farron that acts as the backbone. Nothing happens in Westmorland without him turning up, being photographed, press released and a story appearing in the Westmorland Gazette. Every school gets a visit, awards evenings, sports days you name it. He is there.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I agree. What rural LD seats have in common is that Westminster seems a very long way away. That is also true for Tory rural seats, like mine, of course, but the way to win votes is to pitch local.notme said:
And its what all those Tory MPs who won on waiver thin margins in 2010 did, who got a solid boost on incumbency. A nearby MP tripled his majority on 2010 by doing just that. The Labour candidate on the door step and in the press tried to paint him as an 'invisible MP', it didnt hold traction.JEO said:
You get yourself in the local paper a lot, go to local events, fight for keeping local hospitals and police stations open, weigh in on local road and rail planning, argue for local culture more (especially in Cornwall), moan about London centralisation. That's what the Lib Dems did.EPG said:
How can you all differentiate yourselves when you have a 10-seat majority?JEO said:
Have you ever canvassed in the South West? It's a very conservative place. [....] Their pro-EU, civil liberties, reduce prison sentences line isn't going to win back these seats. The future for the Lib Dems is probably a move left under Farron, a small but stilted recovery, and a merger with Labour.surbiton said:
Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
Whatever the situation, he presents himself as standing up for his constituency. That's how you go from a 260 majority to a 12,260 majority...0 -
You know that Farron is nonentity when PBers constantly misspell his name. Farrow, Farrin, come to mind.
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Sometimes the product you are selling is so tainted that if the Son of God himself came down and endorsed it, you still wouldnt touch it.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bob Russell pointed at every pothole, shook the hand of every under-14s swimming contest champion, etc, but that did him no good this time round. But it was a good approach.notme said:
Ironically, it is a rulebook written by Tim Farron that acts as the backbone. Nothing happens in Westmorland without him turning up, being photographed, press released and a story appearing in the Westmorland Gazette. Every school gets a visit, awards evenings, sports days you name it. He is there.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I agree. What rural LD seats have in common is that Westminster seems a very long way away. That is also true for Tory rural seats, like mine, of course, but the way to win votes is to pitch local.notme said:
And its what allJEO said:
You get yourself in the local paper a lot, go to local events, fight for keeping local hospitals and police stations open, weigh in on local road and rail planning, argue for local culture more (especially in Cornwall), moan about London centralisation. That's what the Lib Dems did.EPG said:
How can you all differentiate yourselves when you have a 10-seat majority?JEO said:
Have you ever canvassed in the South West? It's a very conservative place. [....] Their pro-EU, civil liberties, reduce prison sentences line isn't going to win back these seats. The future for the Lib Dems is probably a move left under Farron, a small but stilted recovery, and a merger with Labour.surbiton said:
Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
Whatever the situation, he presents himself as standing up for his constituency. That's how you go from a 260 majority to a 12,260 majority...0 -
The problem with that theory is that this election all of Sir Bob's "borrowed" votes melted away and are unlikely to come back so soon. Sir Bob still had some, and if he doesn't stand again the LibDems could do even worse next time.HYUFD said:TWR The Tories won 38% in Colchester, the LDs 27%, Labour 16%, it could go back through Labour tactical votes
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I thought the interview went fine apart from the abortion term limit question. He deserves favouritism but the value is with Lamb.
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So, the Lib Dems did taint themselves by joining the Tories ? Like Labour did in Scotland.notme said:
Sometimes the product you are selling is so tainted that if the Son of God himself came down and endorsed it, you still wouldnt touch it.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Bob Russell pointed at every pothole, shook the hand of every under-14s swimming contest champion, etc, but that did him no good this time round. But it was a good approach.notme said:
Ironically, it is a rulebook written by Tim Farron that acts as the backbone. Nothing happens in Westmorland without him turning up, being photographed, press released and a story appearing in the Westmorland Gazette. Every school gets a visit, awards evenings, sports days you name it. He is there.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I agree. What rural LD seats have in common is that Westminster seems a very long way away. That is also true for Tory rural seats, like mine, of course, but the way to win votes is to pitch local.notme said:
And its what allJEO said:
You get yourself in the local paper a lot, go to local events, fight for keeping local hospitals and police stations open, weigh in on local road and rail planning, argue for local culture more (especially in Cornwall), moan about London centralisation. That's what the Lib Dems did.EPG said:
How can you all differentiate yourselves when you have a 10-seat majority?JEO said:
Have you ever canvassed in the South West? It's a very conservative place. [....] Their pro-EU, civil liberties, reduce prison sentences line isn't going to win back these seats. The future for the Lib Dems is probably a move left under Farron, a small but stilted recovery, and a merger with Labour.surbiton said:
Farron can start the slow climb back in traditional "Liberal" places like the South West, for example. The metropolitan seats are a different story. Most of the LD voters here were actually anti-Tory voters who are permanently lost.HYUFD said:Farron is, of course, the LDs only real chance to win back seats from the Tories in any significant numbers next time through winning back Labour tactical voters in the likes of Twickenham and Eastbourne and St Ives, Lamb is a safe pair of hands who was close to Clegg, in normal times he would be fine, but for a party on the verge of extinction these are not normal times
Whatever the situation, he presents himself as standing up for his constituency. That's how you go from a 260 majority to a 12,260 majority...0 -
I suppose they could after all they have again "technically" paid their debt to Society.** though it may well reduce the number of Labour challengers for leadership of course.GIN1138 said:
IMO, NO!richardDodd said:Can someone who has been to prison for a crime be voted in as leader of a Political Party
;-)
Be interesting situation on the day of the leaders conference speech they had to get a proxy as it clashed with their attendance with the parole officer.
** may not apply to public expenses troughing?0 -
Oh no, not the Tory press being merciless again! Not Osborne not being tough enough of welfare spending again ! Woe is me! We are doomed!HYUFD said:surbiton Osborne will need to hope economic growth keeps up at the same pace then, if it slows down and he misses his deficit target again because of a refusal to take tough enough decisions on welfare spending the Tory press will be merciless
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That was not the question. I don't think there is a legal bar which stops anyone being a PM with a conviction.richardDodd said:sSrbiton the person in question lied to the court,an act of perjury..and was convicted of pervrting the course of justice..not for speeding.
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Hmm...Not the most, well, Liberal of records is it?
My problem with Tim Farron is that he did not play a role in the Coalition. He now says that he did not get into politics to stand on the sidelines. But when his party had their first chance in government for a Century that is exactly what he did.
Farron seems to me a road back to the observational, talking head irrelevance that the Lib Dems had prior to 2010. In the past it worked for them in terms of getting elected, having reasonable careers and very decent pensions but as Neill points out the ground they used to occupy is a lot more crowded now.
The question of what the Lib Dems are for remains unanswered. Surely reasonable, fair minded people with a bit of compassion for those down on their luck will be more useful and have more influence in both the Tories and Labour than they would in this backwater?
A party genuinely focussed on maintaining our liberties from the authoritarian tendencies in both the major parties ought to have a role. Goodness knows they are both in their different ways authoritarian enough. I just wonder if it is a large enough role to get elected anymore. At the moment the likelier direction for the Lib Dems at the next election is down.
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Car crash time. Surprised that Neil didn't ask Farron about his views on Carmichael, I think this could become a LibDem achilles heel as it does not appear to sit comfortably with "Liberal" values, which these guys constantly spout forth on. Interestingly it appears that the LibDems have not yet decided if they will pick up Carmichaels legal bill:
http://www.thenational.scot/news/lib-dems-undecided-if-they-will-pick-up-legal-bill-for-carmichaels-frenchgate-leaked-memo-court-case.3793
The Scottish Office aren't going to help either:
" Two LibDem media officers spent most of yesterday afternoon trying to find the answer, and last night a spokesman said no decision had been made. “We would expect a decision in the next few days and then it will be made public. But we have no further comment at the moment,” he said. The Scotland Office in Edinburgh, once Carmichael’s workplace, said the costs were nothing to do with them and a spokesman for the House of Commons media office said: “We are not aware of any assistance that could be provided to Mr Carmichael.”
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In theory, Gerry Adams or Martin McGuiness could become PM's. They would have to be MP's first. Are either of them MPs anymore ?0
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I don't think it is a bar to being PM.richardDodd said:Can someone who has been to prison for a crime be voted in as leader of a Political Party
However you can't be a Police and Crime Commisioner with a criminal record, spent or unspent.0 -
TWR No, Farron is far more likely to attract Labour tactical votes than Clegg, who most Labour voters saw as Cameron's 'mini me'0
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"Hard to justify Tim Farron’s 1/7 favourite odds after seeing this Andrew Neil grilling"
The impression I get from the LD activists is that they are backing Farron in 3:1 ratio. Not surprising as 2/3 of the LD members are from the left and only 1/3 classic liberals/orange book people. Lib Dems to be a MineMee version of Labour.0 -
Smart fella ! He knew even touching the Tories would be radioactive ! If he had, then there would be one more Tory gain !DavidL said:Hmm...Not the most, well, Liberal of records is it?
My problem with Tim Farron is that he did not play a role in the Coalition. He now says that he did not get into politics to stand on the sidelines. But when his party had their first chance in government for a Century that is exactly what he did.
Farron seems to me a road back to the observational, talking head irrelevance that the Lib Dems had prior to 2010. In the past it worked for them in terms of getting elected, having reasonable careers and very decent pensions but as Neill points out the ground they used to occupy is a lot more crowded now.
The question of what the Lib Dems are for remains unanswered. Surely reasonable, fair minded people with a bit of compassion for those down on their luck will be more useful and have more influence in both the Tories and Labour than they would in this backwater?
A party genuinely focussed on maintaining our liberties from the authoritarian tendencies in both the major parties ought to have a role. Goodness knows they are both in their different ways authoritarian enough. I just wonder if it is a large enough role to get elected anymore. At the moment the likelier direction for the Lib Dems at the next election is down.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Can't imagine people will generally approve of him voting for tougher abortion limits.
F1: very hard to try and find a bet for the race, but my pre-race thoughts are up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/canada-pre-race.html0 -
Bit of a surprise this, you have zeroed in on Carmichael. Strange.calum said:Car crash time. Surprised that Neil didn't ask Farron about his views on Carmichael, I think this could become a LibDem achilles heel as it does not appear to sit comfortably with "Liberal" values, which these guys constantly spout forth on. Interestingly it appears that the LibDems have not yet decided if they will pick up Carmichaels legal bill:
http://www.thenational.scot/news/lib-dems-undecided-if-they-will-pick-up-legal-bill-for-carmichaels-frenchgate-leaked-memo-court-case.3793
The Scottish Office aren't going to help either:
" Two LibDem media officers spent most of yesterday afternoon trying to find the answer, and last night a spokesman said no decision had been made. “We would expect a decision in the next few days and then it will be made public. But we have no further comment at the moment,” he said. The Scotland Office in Edinburgh, once Carmichael’s workplace, said the costs were nothing to do with them and a spokesman for the House of Commons media office said: “We are not aware of any assistance that could be provided to Mr Carmichael.”0 -
Not in the UK, no.surbiton said:In theory, Gerry Adams or Martin McGuiness could become PM's. They would have to be MP's first. Are either of them MPs anymore ?
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I still doubt whether voters who gave their tactical votes to the LibDems, returned to their own parties in 2015 will change their minds again in the circumstances. Labour will want to win the seat.HYUFD said:TWR No, Farron is far more likely to attract Labour tactical votes than Clegg, who most Labour voters saw as Cameron's 'mini me'
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Flightpathl If Osborne does fail to meet his deficit target AGAIN, because of his own decisions not the eurozone crisis, and that leads to higher interest rates and a credit downgrade the Tory press will come down as hard on him and Cameron as it did on Major and Lamont after Black Wednesday0
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renwick @marstraveler 41m41 minutes ago
@WayneDupreeShow @Mike_Beacham Now This Treason: UN Secretary-General weighs lumping Israel in with ISIS and Al Qaeda
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/06/05/un-secretary-general-weighs-lumping-israel-in-with-isis-and-al-qaeda.html …
The demonization of Israel continues unabated.0 -
But if he is not going to go into bed with the Tories what is the point of the Lib Dems? Their role as Labour's little helpers has been completely superseded by the SNP who will have far more MPs to offer in the next Parliament should the Tories fall short.surbiton said:
Smart fella ! He knew even touching the Tories would be radioactive ! If he had, then there would be one more Tory gain !DavidL said:Hmm...Not the most, well, Liberal of records is it?
My problem with Tim Farron is that he did not play a role in the Coalition. He now says that he did not get into politics to stand on the sidelines. But when his party had their first chance in government for a Century that is exactly what he did.
Farron seems to me a road back to the observational, talking head irrelevance that the Lib Dems had prior to 2010. In the past it worked for them in terms of getting elected, having reasonable careers and very decent pensions but as Neill points out the ground they used to occupy is a lot more crowded now.
The question of what the Lib Dems are for remains unanswered. Surely reasonable, fair minded people with a bit of compassion for those down on their luck will be more useful and have more influence in both the Tories and Labour than they would in this backwater?
A party genuinely focussed on maintaining our liberties from the authoritarian tendencies in both the major parties ought to have a role. Goodness knows they are both in their different ways authoritarian enough. I just wonder if it is a large enough role to get elected anymore. At the moment the likelier direction for the Lib Dems at the next election is down.0 -
Farron was Lib Dem President for 4 years. Can anyone remember the brave and tough line he took on the Rennard matter?
No?
Well the episode did finish off the LD careers of several females who resigned over the action taken.
So the LDs are welcome to him as Leader.0 -
DavidL Labour will of course far prefer to deal with the LDs than the SNP, not least because they will not turn off floating voters in England, and in the seats they lost to the Tories they used to win Labour tactical votes as the main alternative to the Tories0
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Ken Stone @dkenstone 1h1 hour ago
TBF, apart from Nigel there isn't a single one of them that will answer a straight forward question nor give an...
http://dailym.ai/1KUXLXJ0 -
TWR No, Labour will want to get the Tories out, if Labour could not even overtake the LDs in a seat in 2015 they would far rather see a LD beat the Tory MP than a Labour candidate come a strong third again while the Tory holds on0
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UKIP Supporters @UKIPSupporters 1h1 hour ago
Nigel Evans MP: I would proudly march alongside UKIP at Pride #ukip http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2015/06/07/comment-why-i-would-proudly-march-alongside-ukip-at-pride-by-nigel-evans/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+Pinknews+(Pink+News) …
Not gay myself BTW.0 -
It was, of course, LAB voters in LD held seats who gave Dave his majority.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I still doubt whether voters who gave their tactical votes to the LibDems, returned to their own parties in 2015 will change their minds again in the circumstances. Labour will want to win the seat.HYUFD said:TWR No, Farron is far more likely to attract Labour tactical votes than Clegg, who most Labour voters saw as Cameron's 'mini me'
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Sure, but the numbers are very unlikely to add up for them. And for Labour to put together a Coalition from here without the SNP is going to require an incredible number of gains from the Tories. A very unlikely number as things stand at the moment.HYUFD said:DavidL Labour will of course far prefer to deal with the LDs than the SNP, not least because they will not turn off floating voters in England, and in the seats they lost to the Tories they used to win Labour tactical votes as the main alternative to the Tories
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Surbiton..Driving above a speed limit is not a crime.. it is a road traffic offense..Lying to the court,on a number of occasions is a criminal offense..that is what Huhne did and why he was sent to prison.0
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Ah party with the sexist ex-leader. When are you going to condemn that?calum said:Car crash time. Surprised that Neil didn't ask Farron about his views on Carmichael, I think this could become a LibDem achilles heel as it does not appear to sit comfortably with "Liberal" values, which these guys constantly spout forth on. Interestingly it appears that the LibDems have not yet decided if they will pick up Carmichaels legal bill:
http://www.thenational.scot/news/lib-dems-undecided-if-they-will-pick-up-legal-bill-for-carmichaels-frenchgate-leaked-memo-court-case.3793
The Scottish Office aren't going to help either:
" Two LibDem media officers spent most of yesterday afternoon trying to find the answer, and last night a spokesman said no decision had been made. “We would expect a decision in the next few days and then it will be made public. But we have no further comment at the moment,” he said. The Scotland Office in Edinburgh, once Carmichael’s workplace, said the costs were nothing to do with them and a spokesman for the House of Commons media office said: “We are not aware of any assistance that could be provided to Mr Carmichael.”
0 -
How can a non Israeli commit 'treason' against Israel? Is the person writing it a hyperbolic moron or trying to imply that everyone owes an allegiance to Israel?MikeK said:renwick @marstraveler 41m41 minutes ago
@WayneDupreeShow @Mike_Beacham Now This Treason: UN Secretary-General weighs lumping Israel in with ISIS and Al Qaeda
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/06/05/un-secretary-general-weighs-lumping-israel-in-with-isis-and-al-qaeda.html …
The demonization of Israel continues unabated.
0 -
To all the SNP supporters on here that live in Scotland and are looking for an alternative to writing on here 24/7. Why not look out for this lady?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3114246/My-perfect-man-hasn-t-turned-m-going-Air-hostess-sells-possessions-buy-camper-van-plans-Scotland-looking-love.html0 -
Don't think I've commented since the GE - congratulations to all the Tories here (and those who backed them)
For me it has to be Tim Farron - the battle over the next parliament is simply being heard, and Tim has a good track record at spotting and making the most of distinctive positions. Norman Lamb feels like the right man at the wrong time. If we had 30MPs I may feel differently, but I'm worried that the worst case scenario under Norman is the party fading away. With Tim the party may well go back to being a protest vehicle and think tank for the big two - but that's maybe what we need.
In terms of value, I would not advise anyone away from Tim even at 1/7. My sense is that there is a backlash against the grandees who led into the terrible GE result, many of whom are going for Norman, and that Tim is the better known by miles aming armchair members. The new members - 1/4 of the electorate - are the uncertainty, but I think Tim wins too heavily among existing members for them to swing it.0 -
Mike why should Lab voters have given their votes to the LDs? It was obvious that Clegg was angling for a coalition mark 2 with the Tories from the outset.MikeSmithson said:
It was, of course, LAB voters in LD held seats who gave Dave his majority.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I still doubt whether voters who gave their tactical votes to the LibDems, returned to their own parties in 2015 will change their minds again in the circumstances. Labour will want to win the seat.HYUFD said:TWR No, Farron is far more likely to attract Labour tactical votes than Clegg, who most Labour voters saw as Cameron's 'mini me'
Clegg's hubris and ambition was a disaster for the LD's. If you have anyone to be angry about shooting at Labour voters who couldn't stomach Clegg's bumchumery with Cameron is way off beam.0 -
Mr. tpfkar, you've got a vote in the Farron/Lamb contest, I take it?
Bad luck on the election result. On the plus side, if the SNP stumble you may be able to recover swiftly in Scotland.0 -
OGH Exactly right but I think it is Farron who is best placed to win them back rather than Clegg's aide Lamb0
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DavidL But every LD gain from the Tories through Labour tactical votes is one less seat Labour needs to win off the Tories to form a government or one less seat they need to win off the SNP to avoid having to deal with the nationalists0
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What was wrong with the abortion limit question? Liberalism is about standing up for the rights of the individual, especially those without a voice. I dont see how standing up for the rights of unborn children in the third trimester is inconsistent with that.Pulpstar said:I thought the interview went fine apart from the abortion term limit question. He deserves favouritism but the value is with Lamb.
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MikeSmithson said:
Ah party with the sexist ex-leader. When are you going to condemn that?calum said:Car crash time. Surprised that Neil didn't ask Farron about his views on Carmichael, I think this could become a LibDem achilles heel as it does not appear to sit comfortably with "Liberal" values, which these guys constantly spout forth on. Interestingly it appears that the LibDems have not yet decided if they will pick up Carmichaels legal bill:
http://www.thenational.scot/news/lib-dems-undecided-if-they-will-pick-up-legal-bill-for-carmichaels-frenchgate-leaked-memo-court-case.3793
The Scottish Office aren't going to help either:
" Two LibDem media officers spent most of yesterday afternoon trying to find the answer, and last night a spokesman said no decision had been made. “We would expect a decision in the next few days and then it will be made public. But we have no further comment at the moment,” he said. The Scotland Office in Edinburgh, once Carmichael’s workplace, said the costs were nothing to do with them and a spokesman for the House of Commons media office said: “We are not aware of any assistance that could be provided to Mr Carmichael.”
One can only hope the SNP will investigate this with the same rigour shown by the Libdems over accusations of sexual harassment and child abuse.
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He didn't answer that way, dodged around the question a fair bit.JEO said:
What was wrong with the abortion limit question? Liberalism is about standing up for the rights of the individual, especially those without a voice. I dont see how standing up for the rights of unborn children in the third trimester is inconsistent with that.Pulpstar said:I thought the interview went fine apart from the abortion term limit question. He deserves favouritism but the value is with Lamb.
0 -
Yes - and I'm defending my council seat next year (if I stand again) so could really do with some positive national mood music. Thanks forr the sympathy, although I don't think bad luck had much to do with it. I'd imagine that the SW would be the obvious region to recover in first rather than Scotland, but doubt we will be targeting all that many seats - prioritising key council areas perhaps?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. tpfkar, you've got a vote in the Farron/Lamb contest, I take it?
Bad luck on the election result. On the plus side, if the SNP stumble you may be able to recover swiftly in Scotland.0 -
Oh those progressive countries...........!!!!
Sue @English_Woman 7m7 minutes ago
A rising tide of anger across Europe at 'Nazi’ social workers - Telegraph http://bit.ly/1MyIB8L0 -
Mr. tpfkar, good luck with your seat.
If we had a proper Liberal Party [yes yes, I know it technically still exists] rather than a pro-EU SDP type conglomeration it'd be altogether more appealing to me.0 -
Carmichael dissembling about the timing of his being aware of that memo seems a very, very, very minor lapse in the great scheme of political rough and tumble. From a safe distance here in North Yorkshire, one wonders that his true 'crimes' were (I) embarrassing the SNP leader and (ii) winning.calum said:Car crash time. Surprised that Neil didn't ask Farron about his views on Carmichael, I think this could become a LibDem achilles heel as it does not appear to sit comfortably with "Liberal" values, which these guys constantly spout forth on. Interestingly it appears that the LibDems have not yet decided if they will pick up Carmichaels legal bill:
http://www.thenational.scot/news/lib-dems-undecided-if-they-will-pick-up-legal-bill-for-carmichaels-frenchgate-leaked-memo-court-case.3793
The Scottish Office aren't going to help either:
" Two LibDem media officers spent most of yesterday afternoon trying to find the answer, and last night a spokesman said no decision had been made. “We would expect a decision in the next few days and then it will be made public. But we have no further comment at the moment,” he said. The Scotland Office in Edinburgh, once Carmichael’s workplace, said the costs were nothing to do with them and a spokesman for the House of Commons media office said: “We are not aware of any assistance that could be provided to Mr Carmichael.”
0 -
A good post. I think also, Norman Lamb is like voting for your good old Uncle Stan who is perfectly nice, but best left sorting out his shed with his pipe and slippers. Would get on very well with Mary Creagh mind, Auntie Mabel who makes a very good plum pudding.tpfkar said:Don't think I've commented since the GE - congratulations to all the Tories here (and those who backed them)
For me it has to be Tim Farron - the battle over the next parliament is simply being heard, and Tim has a good track record at spotting and making the most of distinctive positions. Norman Lamb feels like the right man at the wrong time. If we had 30MPs I may feel differently, but I'm worried that the worst case scenario under Norman is the party fading away. With Tim the party may well go back to being a protest vehicle and think tank for the big two - but that's maybe what we need.
In terms of value, I would not advise anyone away from Tim even at 1/7. My sense is that there is a backlash against the grandees who led into the terrible GE result, many of whom are going for Norman, and that Tim is the better known by miles aming armchair members. The new members - 1/4 of the electorate - are the uncertainty, but I think Tim wins too heavily among existing members for them to swing it.
0
