politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : June 4th 2015

Tissue_Price said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

Wisbech South (Cambridgeshire) result:
CON - 63.8% (+32.4)
UKIP - 18.6% (-19.6)
LAB - 13.7% (-2.7)
LDEM - 3.8% (-10.1)

Can we call Peak Kipper yet?

Melting away like sun in the summer.

MikeK said:

williamglenn said:

http://labourlist.org/2015/06/whos-backing-who-and-who-did-endorsers-vote-to-be-leader-in-2010/

It seems that Kendall has overtaken Cooper in declared support.

According to the BBC Kendal has now got the required 35 MP nominations.

Good. Now they need to ensure that Corbyn gets enough MPs to be nominated. The party will benefit from having right, left and centre involved in the leadership race.

At the general election Mary Creagh’s vote dropped slightly from 17,454 to 17,301.

Tissue_Price said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

Wisbech South (Cambridgeshire) result:
CON - 63.8% (+32.4)
UKIP - 18.6% (-19.6)
LAB - 13.7% (-2.7)
LDEM - 3.8% (-10.1)

Can we call Peak Kipper yet?

Just don't tell the nutjobs over at the Speccy CoffeeHouse.

26.0% swing UKIP=>Con in Wisbech South

NeilVW said:

26.0% swing UKIP=>Con in Wisbech South

Dirty sleazy kippers on the slide...

MTimT said:

Tim_B said:

Rick Perry announced for POTUS today - did anyone notice?

Trump might announce June 16th. Oh dear

Think we're heading for two dozen ...

I'm beginning to think we can have too much of a good thing, in terms of crazy and entertaining no hope candidates (and the crazy candidates who do have a hope in winning nevertheless).

Let's hope the weaker Democratic candidates stay in the race as long as possible, we've already seen how these Republican ones go in recent times, we need the Democratic alternative.

Good night all

RobD said:

MikeK said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 53s53 seconds ago
Wisbech South (Cambridgeshire) result:
CON - 63.8% (+32.4)
UKIP - 18.6% (-19.6)
LAB - 13.7% (-2.7)
LDEM - 3.8% (-10.1)

Looks like Tories sweeping all before them at the moment.

That's a surge of SNP proportions.

It keeps getting said, correctly, that the Tories did not win because they are beloved but because they were not feared enough, Labour was distrusted and so on and so forth with a whole range of factors. But in southern England there's plenty of places which if they don't love the Tories, they are sending mixed signals given their electoral strength.

foxinsoxuk said:

Flightpathl said:

alex. said:

If (when) Greece is forced out of the Euro, will the Euro weaken or strengthen? Should i buy my holiday money now or later?

It depends where you are going. Greece? Be prepared for massive inflation if you are. I'm not sure the cash points will be working in Greece much longer.

Take your money in cash Euros if going to Greece, the machines are being emptied and restraunts do not like credit cards etc. It is turning into a cash economy in tourist areas. Steer clear of the cities.

If Greece leaves the Euro it will be chaos and the probable fall of Syrizia. Who will replace them? Who knows! Not even the Greeks that I work with have a clue, but possibly the far right.

I would have thought the Independent Greeks would be allowed a go at running the country before Golden Dawn get their turn.

The Ed Stone has been given the honour of its own Wikipedia page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Stone

nigel4england said:

kle4 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I found Creagh very immature in the last few minutes of Question Time tonight. Giggling and pointing and laughing at Norman Lamb and shouting over him about how people weren't voting Lib Dem. Looked like very childish schaudenfreude for a candidate to be LOTO, especially given Labour didn't exactly do well either.

She is not going to make the shortlist.

Who will she back?

Hans Holbein each way if she has any sense.

:-) Touche! A clever bit of intellectual humour, N4E!

AndyJS said:

The Ed Stone has been given the honour of its own Wikipedia page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Stone

Did you write that? It's very well done.

Tissue_Price said:

AndyJS said:

The Ed Stone has been given the honour of its own Wikipedia page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Stone

Did you write that? It's very well done.

If it's well-written it probably wasn't written by me...

I did something pretty unusual tonight.

After taking part in my first party canvassing in the election I was out in the Donside/Aberdeen part of Alex Salmond's consituency canvassing this evening.

This is the same bit that I was working in during the campaign a couple of times. Two things. Quite a lot of people still have Salmond posters in their windows. Indeed some still have YES posters up. This seems pretty remarkable to me. Is it common ealsewhere? Lots of support for very early referendum and overall results show SNP at 60 per cent plus.

Oh and one for the Salmond haters on this site. He already has had a leaflet out thanking people for their support with his office contact numbers and is busy working on solving a local health centre issue. Indeed several houses had his thank you card displayed on their doors!

Scott_P


You do know that he is also an MSP, right?

And the issue seems to have been resolved as he promised to to during the election. GP practice wound up - new practice now taking over in same building.

Anyway Scott P IT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER

Interesting that the BBC's exit poll hasn't forecast a Tory overall majority since 1987, when they predicting a Con majority of 26 when it was actually 102. The last time they got it anywhere near right was 1983 when they predicted a 146 majority (it was actually 144).

AndyJS said:

Interesting that the BBC's exit poll hasn't forecast a Tory overall majority since 1987, when they predicting a Con majority of 26 when it was actually 102. The last time they got it anywhere near right was 1983 when they predicted a 146 majority (it was actually 144).

It's going to be so difficult not to think the same has happened in 2020. Could end up in humiliation for PB Tories!!

Thought some of you on here might enjoy this little piece:

http://newsthump.com/2015/06/03/qatar-wins-bid-to-host-sepp-blatters-leaving-do/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=socialnetwork

Plato said:

Philip Collins takes on the legacy on Charlie Kennedy = http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4460867.ece

He thinks Charlie's strategy of becoming the NOTA Party lead them nowhere.

Haven't read the article but I have sympathy with the perspective. If your party is a cobbled-together alliance that doesn't stand for anything in particular, and you woo different segments of the population with completely disparate messages (which you can get away with because third parties have historically evaded the scrutiny they deserve) then what is the point of you? And what happens if you actually, for whatever reason, get into power? How can you be all things to all people then?

It's a strategy with a built-in element of future failure. Ironically, by pumping up the number of MPs, the risk of this failure becomes more acute, because it increases the chances of getting drawn into a Coalition.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tricky GCSE maths exam sees pupils take to Twitter

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33017299

Arhhh dee dums, they got a hardy wardy question in their maths GCSE, one that wasn't just a recycled question off a previous years paper...

God help them in the real world....so we need to come up with a novel solution to this problem as that is how we make money in the knowledge economy...what there isn't a solution from last year I can just copy?

LOL. Just got a Facebook message from my niece with one of the questions, saying her mum (my sister) told her I could give her the answer.

The question was: Hannah has 6 yellow sweets, prove that n2-n-90 = 0.

I've no idea what the 6 yellow sweets have to do with anything, and I can't 'prove' anything. However, I could solve for the equation. (n2= n squared, sorry for the lack of superscript). Took me less than 20 seconds.

BTW, her answer was way more fun than mine, to wit "Well, that escalated quickly!"

RobD said:

MTimT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tricky GCSE maths exam sees pupils take to Twitter

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33017299

Arhhh dee dums, they got a hardy wardy question in their maths GCSE, one that wasn't just a recycled question off a previous years paper...

God help them in the real world....so we need to come up with a novel solution to this problem as that is how we make money in the knowledge economy...what there isn't a solution from last year I can just copy?

LOL. Just got a Facebook message from my niece with one of the questions, saying her mum (my sister) told her I could give her the answer.

The question was: Hannah has 6 yellow sweets, prove that n2-n-90 = 0.

I've no idea what the 6 yellow sweets have to do with anything, and I can't 'prove' anything. However, I could solve for the equation. (n2= n squared, sorry for the lack of superscript). Took me less than 20 seconds.

BTW, her answer was way more fun than mine, to wit "Well, that escalated quickly!"

What's 6 got to do with anything?

Exactly. 10 and -9.

AndyJS said:

According to Wikipedia the term "Anglosphere" wasn't coined until 1995, which seems a bit unlikely IMO:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglosphere#Definitions

That sounds entirely plausible to me. It's a mendacious term.