politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladrokes offering evens that the SNP will increase the numb
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Please tell me that the client or the QC was called Kevin Carter.antifrank said:
I once slipped "If You Tolerate This Your Children Will Be Next" into a formal letter of advice (subsequently reviewed by a QC). That remains my highpoint.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not everyone has my rare talent for slipping in subtle musical references into letters and articles.antifrank said:I must say that Tom Watson referring to Drenge in his resignation is quite eccentric. Ed Miliband should have responded in his letter by quoting Bruce Springsteen:
"So say goodbye it's Independence Day
All men must make their way come Independence Day."
But today it is clear out of Ed and Tom Watson who is Master and Servant.
I once wrote a report which referenced songs inter alia, Westlife, Take That, Boyzone and New Kids on The Block.
That remains a high point for me.0 -
In the name of all that is good and decent on this Board, I wish to deplore and disassociate myself from those - and you know who you are - so cruelly and cowardly displaying such unfeeling schadenfreude at tim's obvious pain and discomfort. Everyone knows the restraint and generosity of spirit he would exercise were the positions reversed,
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Nah, this is more Ed's taste...:antifrank said:I must say that Tom Watson referring to Drenge in his resignation is quite eccentric. Ed Miliband should have responded in his letter by quoting Bruce Springsteen:
"So say goodbye it's Independence Day
All men must make their way come Independence Day."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UA7v0zknMCo
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Once upon a time, there was a very famous priest (Miliband) in a very old religion (Labour). He decided it was the right day to perform the ritual sacrificing of a goat. In his ignorance, he thought this was an offering demanded by his god. (the media)
He obtained an appropriate goat for the sacrifice (Watson). He ordered his servants (the Blairites) to take the goat to the holy river (Thames) and wash him and decorate him with flower garlands (left over from Glastonbury). Then they were to wash themselves, as part of the purification (putrification?) practice.
Down at the riverbank, the goat (Watson) suddenly understood that today he would definitely be killed (after trying career suicide the previous day). He also became aware of his past births and deaths and rebirths (under Blair/Brown/Miliband). He realized that the results of his past unwholesome deeds were about to finally be completed (or were about to be revealed). So he laughed an uproarious goat-laugh, like the clanging of cymbals (and then talked about music).
In the midst of his laughter, he realized another truth that the priest, by sacrificing him, would suffer the same terrible results, due to his ignorance. So he began to cry as loudly as he had just been laughing! (And we all joined in)
http://www.buddhanet.net/e-learning/buddhism/bt1_20.htm0 -
This is from one of the pieces I linked to in nighthawks last night
Cameron’s attacks achieved one very obvious thing: they delighted the Tory benches who largely seem to hate unions with a passion.
But to be heard by voters, the prime minister is relying on people still viewing trade unions as a serious power in the country.
Having said that, given that those in their 50s and above are both most likely to remember that being the case and most likely to vote, this may be a well-calculated strategy.
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2013/07/pmqs-how-much-does-the-union-row-hurt-labour/0 -
Like :-)JohnO said:In the name of all that is good and decent on this Board, I wish to deplore and disassociate myself from those - and you know who you are - so cruelly and cowardly displaying such unfeeling schadenfreude at tim's obvious pain and discomfort. Everyone knows the restraint and generosity of spirit he would exercise were the positions reversed,
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The position of the Scottish LibDems is most odd. It mirrors their colleagues south of the border but with knobs on.HYUFD said:JackW - Even if independence is defeated and Labour hold their own in Scotland or even increase their vote, the SNP will still hope to pick up some seats from the Scottish LDs, particularly in rural areas, if independence is defeated they may even get some Labour tactical votes to do so, and with the Union safe the Tories in those seats will hardly be perturbed by SNP gains
Essentially their support is very weak, indeed almost vanished, in areas where they were previously polling mediocre to bad. However in those small pockets of traditional strength they are holding up better but still under severe pressure.
It'll come down to personal vote, local organization and perhaps a small general improvement in the polls. They may end up polling 8-12% and lose only a few seats aided perhaps by a split in the vote in some seats.
We earnestly believe that the noble Viscount Thurso and his follicular trimmings enjoy a safe return to the HoC.
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Deserves the return of the "Like" for that alone.JohnO said:In the name of all that is good and decent on this Board, I wish to deplore and disassociate myself from those - and you know who you are - so cruelly and cowardly displaying such unfeeling schadenfreude at tim's obvious pain and discomfort. Everyone knows the restraint and generosity of spirit he would exercise were the positions reversed,
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Like.
Test.
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What a load of crap,on sky news earlier it was said ed was begging Watson not to resign a few days ago = WEAK.tim said:Tory tweeters still claiming Miliband is weak as he suspends Len McCluskeys girlfriend from the Labour Party.
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Jack W - Indeed, will be interesting to watch on election night, though like you I am fond of Viscount Thurso, who is both posher than Dave and the most famous non-Tory Old Etonian in the present parliament0
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Imagine your worst nightmare - set in a dinner party
https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/352848248584667136/photo/10 -
This is surely the perfect gift for someone :^ )
https://twitter.com/Vexedfoxy/status/352852760804347904/photo/10 -
I see owen jones up near the head table with ed ;-)Plato said:Imagine your worst nightmare - set in a dinner party
https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/352848248584667136/photo/1
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@jameskirkup
Lordy, @MichaelPDeacon is good. Read this on Tom Watson, Drenge et al > http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10160538/Sketch-Tom-Watson-Labour-MP-for-Drenge-Central.html …0 -
Is that Jemima Khan seated behind Ed M ?Plato said:Imagine your worst nightmare - set in a dinner party
https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/352848248584667136/photo/1
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Agreed - great stuff John.JackW said:
Deserves the return of the "Like" for that alone.JohnO said:In the name of all that is good and decent on this Board, I wish to deplore and disassociate myself from those - and you know who you are - so cruelly and cowardly displaying such unfeeling schadenfreude at tim's obvious pain and discomfort. Everyone knows the restraint and generosity of spirit he would exercise were the positions reversed,
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I think so - I assume that isn't Eddie Shah in the middle background!MonikerDiCanio said:
Is that Jemima Khan seated behind Ed M ?Plato said:Imagine your worst nightmare - set in a dinner party
https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/352848248584667136/photo/10 -
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
Tom Watson's resignation letter. Killer line: "I offered my resignation on Tuesday and you asked me to reconsider" http://www.tom-watson.co.uk/2013/07/independence-day-resignation-letter-3 …
= WEAK.0 -
It's not my squalid list Jack. It's Martin Baxter's:JackW said:How very dare you madam place Viscount Thurso on that squalid list.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
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The SNP should be absolutely financially broke and exhausted after the Independence referendum.
As a supporter of the Yes campaign, but not of the SNP, I will be disappointed if they hold anything back for the 2015 election.0 -
Any local elections tonight?0
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Yes, five of them, Harry's piece will be going up in a bit.MikeK said:Any local elections tonight?
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Good, VOTE UKIP!TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, five of them, Harry's piece will be going up in a bit.MikeK said:Any local elections tonight?
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@JohnRentoul
Found a visual representation of Labour's chances at the next election http://pic.twitter.com/TbYfL3mKV50 -
Little Ed is making Lamont look even sillier than usual, which is no mean feat.
And of course wee Dougie and Murphy are involved too. That's a shocker. ;^ )Labour rocked by resignation and suspensions as Falkirk scandal escalates
It certainly doesn't look like little Ed's "root and branch reform" was a roaring success.
http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/7683-labour-rocked-by-resignation-and-suspension-as-falkirk-scandal-escalates
SLAB starting to run about like headless chickens yet again. How very, very sad. ;(
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Bit of a reality check.
Me to light of my life: "have you heard of Tom Watson?"
LOML: Can you give me a context?
Me: He is an MP and was campaign manager for the Labour party. He resigned today.
LOML: oh, why?
Me: well there is this big story about Falkirk and the rigging of the selection of the Parliamentary candidate there.
LOML: It's not been in the Courier.
Me (slightly desperate) It's all about Unite and Len McCluskey apparently getting lots of new members to rig the vote.
LOML: Oh.
So fun although this all is don't expect a big move on Yougov.0 -
I suspect that is largely true of most. It's more the impact on the morale of the parliamentary Labour party and the narrative of Milliband's weakness that could have a longer term impact. Also we don't know if this represents the beginning or the end of the issue.DavidL said:Bit of a reality check.
Me to light of my life: "have you heard of Tom Watson?"
LOML: Can you give me a context?
Me: He is an MP and was campaign manager for the Labour party. He resigned today.
LOML: oh, why?
Me: well there is this big story about Falkirk and the rigging of the selection of the Parliamentary candidate there.
LOML: It's not been in the Courier.
Me (slightly desperate) It's all about Unite and Len McCluskey apparently getting lots of new members to rig the vote.
LOML: Oh.
So fun although this all is don't expect a big move on Yougov.0 -
Paddy Power have just shortened their price on the Indyref turnout market - More than 64% - to 8/11.
Looks like free money to me as it is pretty much inconceivable that turnout will be weak come next September. Not unless it looks like a walkover for one side or the other, which looks unlikely right now. And even then, I'd still expect a strong turnout on the day.0 -
Well, Watson has given us the most psychedelic resignation letter in British political history. Glastonbury? Merry-go-rounds? Buddha? When you consider McCluskey's statement of 'support' yesterday ('Ed Miliband is still leader of the Labour Party') it becomes clear that these people are just taking the p*ss out of Ed. I don't think they have Ed's interest at heart. I'm wondering if there will soon be moves to depose Ed.0
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I shall, in a few weeks be attending a family party with a Scottish Lib Dem councillor, a relation by marriage.JackW said:
The position of the Scottish LibDems is most odd. It mirrors their colleagues south of the border but with knobs on.HYUFD said:JackW - Even if independence is defeated and Labour hold their own in Scotland or even increase their vote, the SNP will still hope to pick up some seats from the Scottish LDs, particularly in rural areas, if independence is defeated they may even get some Labour tactical votes to do so, and with the Union safe the Tories in those seats will hardly be perturbed by SNP gains
Essentially their support is very weak, indeed almost vanished, in areas where they were previously polling mediocre to bad. However in those small pockets of traditional strength they are holding up better but still under severe pressure.
It'll come down to personal vote, local organization and perhaps a small general improvement in the polls. They may end up polling 8-12% and lose only a few seats aided perhaps by a split in the vote in some seats.
We earnestly believe that the noble Viscount Thurso and his follicular trimmings enjoy a safe return to the HoC.
I shall try and discuss the situation and report.
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Very, very few things that animate PB posters animate normal voters out there in the big wide real world. Politicians and politics junkies are atypical, and are usually pretty useless at spotting the really important trends and stories.DavidL said:Bit of a reality check.
Me to light of my life: "have you heard of Tom Watson?"
LOML: Can you give me a context?
Me: He is an MP and was campaign manager for the Labour party. He resigned today.
LOML: oh, why?
Me: well there is this big story about Falkirk and the rigging of the selection of the Parliamentary candidate there.
LOML: It's not been in the Courier.
Me (slightly desperate) It's all about Unite and Len McCluskey apparently getting lots of new members to rig the vote.
LOML: Oh.
So fun although this all is don't expect a big move on Yougov.
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Perhaps Watson fancies a go as leader?Stark_Dawning said:Well, Watson has given us the most psychedelic resignation letter in British political history. Glastonbury? Merry-go-rounds? Buddha? When you consider McCluskey's statement of 'support' yesterday ('Ed Miliband is still leader of the Labour Party') it becomes clear that these people are just taking the p*ss out of Ed. I don't think they have Ed's interest at heart. I'm wondering if there will soon be moves to depose Ed.
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Turnout for devolution in 1997: 60.4%.Stuart_Dickson said:Paddy Power have just shortened their price on the Indyref turnout market - More than 64% - to 8/11.
Looks like free money to me as it is pretty much inconceivable that turnout will be weak come next September. Not unless it looks like a walkover for one side or the other, which looks unlikely right now. And even then, I'd still expect a strong turnout on the day.
If 60% were willing to turn out to vote for that foregone conclusion you are probably right. Still think that those that voted yes should be getting sent invoices though.
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This is a local election for local Buddhas! There's nothing for you here!MikeK said:Any local elections tonight?
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Fans of local by-elections may be interested in taking part in the VoteUK weekly prediction competition, which paradoxically is organised on a monthly basis.
I used to take part until my form hit rock bottom a few months ago:
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/87242/thread0 -
@DavidL conversely my unpolitical other half mentioned it unprompted within 10 minutes of me walking in the door. But he is likely to be unusual in having noticed.0
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It's pretty clear that he's handled it very, very poorly. He should have bitten Watson's hand off when he offered the resignation the first time.tim said:
Depends mainly on how Ed handles it.Max_Edinburgh said:
I suspect that is largely true of most. It's more the impact on the morale of the parliamentary Labour party and the narrative of Milliband's weakness that could have a longer term impact. Also we don't know if this represents the beginning or the end of the issue.DavidL said:Bit of a reality check.
Me to light of my life: "have you heard of Tom Watson?"
LOML: Can you give me a context?
Me: He is an MP and was campaign manager for the Labour party. He resigned today.
LOML: oh, why?
Me: well there is this big story about Falkirk and the rigging of the selection of the Parliamentary candidate there.
LOML: It's not been in the Courier.
Me (slightly desperate) It's all about Unite and Len McCluskey apparently getting lots of new members to rig the vote.
LOML: Oh.
So fun although this all is don't expect a big move on Yougov.0 -
You're assuming the whole of Scotland hasn't died of boredom by then . This has to be one of the dullest election campaigns of recent history from both sides and still 15 months to go.Stuart_Dickson said:Paddy Power have just shortened their price on the Indyref turnout market - More than 64% - to 8/11.
Looks like free money to me as it is pretty much inconceivable that turnout will be weak come next September. Not unless it looks like a walkover for one side or the other, which looks unlikely right now. And even then, I'd still expect a strong turnout on the day.0 -
yesMikeK said:Any local elections tonight?
1 Con-LD marginal in Broadland
1 safe Labour seat in Swansea
1 Lab-UKIP marginal in Newcastle under Lyme
1 LD-Con marginal in Vale of White Horse
1 safe Labour seat in North Tyneside
At least, on paper
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How brilliant is this fight with Len for Ed?
@Dannythefink
Hilariously McCluskey is calling for Miliband to have a full independent inquiry and Ed will say that a full independent inquiry not needed.0 -
I see the Cheshire Farmer is running the line that Watsons resignation and the Unite shenanigans are all part of a grand plan to make Cameron look bad.
You're beginning to look ridiculous Tim..0 -
Max_Edinburgh said:
It's pretty clear that he's handled it very, very poorly. He should have bitten Watson's hand off when he offered the resignation the first time.tim said:
Depends mainly on how Ed handles it.Max_Edinburgh said:
I suspect that is largely true of most. It's more the impact on the morale of the parliamentary Labour party and the narrative of Milliband's weakness that could have a longer term impact. Also we don't know if this represents the beginning or the end of the issue.DavidL said:Bit of a reality check.
Me to light of my life: "have you heard of Tom Watson?"
LOML: Can you give me a context?
Me: He is an MP and was campaign manager for the Labour party. He resigned today.
LOML: oh, why?
Me: well there is this big story about Falkirk and the rigging of the selection of the Parliamentary candidate there.
LOML: It's not been in the Courier.
Me (slightly desperate) It's all about Unite and Len McCluskey apparently getting lots of new members to rig the vote.
LOML: Oh.
So fun although this all is don't expect a big move on Yougov.
Ed M didn't want Watson to go because it shows that Ed has lost the dressing room . And , of course , Watson knows where the bodies are buried.
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ED looking v weak this evening. Not read the thread since 6ish but if Tim has offered a bet to anyone, then you KNOW it is BAD.0
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I doubt the public will be shocked to find that the leader of the Conservative party isn't all that keen on Unite and the Trade Unions in general. I suspect most people (including Union members themselves) know that the Tory party and the Unions aren't exactly bosom buddies. It's quite clearly not the big political story this week.tim said:Max_Edinburgh said:
It's pretty clear that he's handled it very, very poorly. He should have bitten Watson's hand off when he offered the resignation the first time.tim said:
Depends mainly on how Ed handles it.Max_Edinburgh said:
I suspect that is largely true of most. It's more the impact on the morale of the parliamentary Labour party and the narrative of Milliband's weakness that could have a longer term impact. Also we don't know if this represents the beginning or the end of the issue.DavidL said:Bit of a reality check.
Me to light of my life: "have you heard of Tom Watson?"
LOML: Can you give me a context?
Me: He is an MP and was campaign manager for the Labour party. He resigned today.
LOML: oh, why?
Me: well there is this big story about Falkirk and the rigging of the selection of the Parliamentary candidate there.
LOML: It's not been in the Courier.
Me (slightly desperate) It's all about Unite and Len McCluskey apparently getting lots of new members to rig the vote.
LOML: Oh.
So fun although this all is don't expect a big move on Yougov.
Perhaps you're right, lets see.
But Camerons red faced spasming certainly cemented the view that the smarter Tories wish to dispel re the Unions and the Conservative party.0 -
“The mishandling of this investigation has been a disgrace. I, however, am obliged to uphold the integrity of Unite, and I can no longer do so on the basis of going along with the activities of a Labour Party administration in which I can place no trust.'
Len McLuskey, Unite.
"Dear Len, we don't seem to have received your cheque this month"
The Labour Party treasurer.
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Newcastle under Lyme is the sort of place where UKIP need to make it happen to be taken seriously.0
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Time to call the Co-opIcarus said:“The mishandling of this investigation has been a disgrace. I, however, am obliged to uphold the integrity of Unite, and I can no longer do so on the basis of going along with the activities of a Labour Party administration in which I can place no trust.'
Len McLuskey, Unite.
"Dear Len, we don't seem to have received your cheque this month"
The Labour Party treasurer.
Oh wait.....0 -
The Watcher..What do you mean.."beginning to look ridiculous tim"....He has been ridiculous for years...0
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Ed not calling for a full independent inquiry on something? Well a first time for everything I guess....Scott_P said:How brilliant is this fight with Len for Ed?
@Dannythefink
Hilariously McCluskey is calling for Miliband to have a full independent inquiry and Ed will say that a full independent inquiry not needed.0 -
This was a UKIP seat which they won in 2007 but they lost it in 2011 to LabourAndy_JS said:Newcastle under Lyme is the sort of place where UKIP need to make it happen to be taken seriously.
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Is that the same as the curse of cameron line you were wibbling on about yesterday? Chortle ....tim said:Max_Edinburgh said:
It's pretty clear that he's handled it very, very poorly. He should have bitten Watson's hand off when he offered the resignation the first time.tim said:
Depends mainly on how Ed handles it.Max_Edinburgh said:
I suspect that is largely true of most. It's more the impact on the morale of the parliamentary Labour party and the narrative of Milliband's weakness that could have a longer term impact. Also we don't know if this represents the beginning or the end of the issue.DavidL said:Bit of a reality check.
Me to light of my life: "have you heard of Tom Watson?"
LOML: Can you give me a context?
Me: He is an MP and was campaign manager for the Labour party. He resigned today.
LOML: oh, why?
Me: well there is this big story about Falkirk and the rigging of the selection of the Parliamentary candidate there.
LOML: It's not been in the Courier.
Me (slightly desperate) It's all about Unite and Len McCluskey apparently getting lots of new members to rig the vote.
LOML: Oh.
So fun although this all is don't expect a big move on Yougov.
Perhaps you're right, lets see.
But Camerons red faced spasming certainly cemented the view that the smarter Tories wish to dispel re the Unions and the Conservative party.
And it makes the Labour charges about who he has chosen to be close to more dangerous for him.
Ed boots out the wrongdoers, Dave dines with them is a line you'll be hearing if Miliband plays this properly.0 -
Not that anyone has been on thread for some time, but current prices on Ladbrokes on this market are:
Over 6.5: 4/5
Under 6.5: 11/10
4/5 remains excellent value, in my view.0 -
Evening all. On thread, if Scotland votes YES on 18th September next year I would expect the Coalition government to bring forward emergency legislation to disenfranchise the 59 Scottish MPs when parliament rises in March 2015. How could 59 Scottish MPs be elected for 5 years to an institution in England when in 2016 Scotland would in effect become a foreign nation?
If Scotland votes NO ( and personally I think it a brave person who is confident of such an outcome) then either Scots would decide that a stronger SNP presence would be needed at Westminster and a few more SNP MPs would be elected or the bubble would burst as in 1979 after the first Referendum was defeated on a technicality and they would be reduced to a rump of 2 or 3 seats.
As for the Tom Watson situation, it really couldn't have happened to a more suitable person. Whether it will make any difference with the electorate or indeed the world outside the Westminster village and London chatterati, who knows.
The media agenda over the next week is likely to be whether Andy Murray is British or a plucky Scot followed by the exertions of the Countess of Strathearn.0 -
LOL - like.Slackbladder said:
Ed not calling for a full independent inquiry on something? Well a first time for everything I guess....Scott_P said:How brilliant is this fight with Len for Ed?
@Dannythefink
Hilariously McCluskey is calling for Miliband to have a full independent inquiry and Ed will say that a full independent inquiry not needed.0 -
Just got back from the pub, and all people were talking about was the Labour Falkirk selection. The twenty somethings were having a heated debate about the Unite unions influence over local constituency parties. The three pissheads in the corner were mumbling their disgust at someone called Len and the barmaid didn't stop twittering on about, between pulling pints, of Unites furious operation....or....does 99% of the population not know or care about the issue and it is left to the 1% of political stato's and anoraks to get frothing at the mouth over it? School place shortages, NHS/111 mayhem, the economy etc etc maybe something only slightly more important eh?0
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Red Rag.. you are right absolutely nothing to see here..except perhaps some corruption.,electoral fraud, the split in the shadow cabinet, the GEC report..etc..absolutely nothing to see..move along now..maybe you should go back to the pub.. safer there0
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Is there a QT tonight or is it out-of-season?0
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Can Ed get any better press than this out of his fight with Len?
Could it look any worse for Ed – losing control of his party to a public sector union that demands an end to cuts?
Oh, wait...0 -
New Thread0
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Mr. Easterross, good to see you on.
You're spot on regarding the need for no Scottish MPs to be involved on the union side of theoretical separation negotiations. Such a position would clearly be absolutely deranged.0 -
NEIL..If Labour get back in then it will also be running the country..0
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Isn't it more likely that legislation would be aimed at restricting the term of the Scottish MPs to match the timescale of independence. No reason to disenfranchise the whole population of Scotland before they have no concerns at Westminster anyway.Easterross said:... if Scotland votes YES on 18th September next year I would expect the Coalition government to bring forward emergency legislation to disenfranchise the 59 Scottish MPs when parliament rises in March 2015. How could 59 Scottish MPs be elected for 5 years to an institution in England when in 2016 Scotland would in effect become a foreign nation?
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Red Rag I know its nothing new but according to some leftie PBers it only happens with the Conservatives..now reality is about to be exposed..bent halo's everywhere..0
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It's amazing to recall that when Spreadfair closed in early December 2008, just 17 months before the May 2010 General Election, I was able to make a tidy profit by agreeing with them a closure of my BUY spread bet of SNP seats at 13.5. Had things worked out differently and my bet bet had continued until expiry, I would have made a great thumping loss.0
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I am sure the same people from tonight will be talking about corruption and politics in September.....yeah right!!!richardDodd said:Red Rag I know its nothing new but according to some leftie PBers it only happens with the Conservatives..now reality is about to be exposed..bent halo's everywhere..
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That the swivel-eyed loons and scottish tory surgers are utterly clueless as to the timetable for negotiations that would follow a a Yes vote to independence is hardly a surprise.0