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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladrokes offering evens that the SNP will increase the numb

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    That nice Mr Cameron has written to me:
    Dear Carlotta,

    Tomorrow, the Conservative Party will vote to give the British people their say on Europe.

    As I made clear in my speech on Europe earlier this year, we want an In-Out referendum by the end of 2017. And tomorrow Conservative MP James Wharton will propose a Bill that would write this commitment into law.

    The Bill has my full support – and it has support from across the Parliamentary Party: Ministers and backbenchers; Conservatives of all views. We are united behind it and together we will vote for it.

    The political picture here is a simple one. Conservatives want to give people a choice on Europe. Labour don’t – they’re refusing to back our Bill.

    For decades, politicians have denied the British people a voice on Europe. Tomorrow the Conservative Party will fight to give them one. And let us all be proud of that.

    David Cameron
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708
    On topic.

    Yes.

    One of the things that may boost the SNP if they lose the referendum next year, voters who liked them but didn't want to leave the Union will know that it is safe to vote for the SNP and not risk Scotland leaving the Union (in the short term at least)
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    DavidL said:

    @Fenster
    "Balls and Miliband have reputations and egos to protect, they won't want to go down in history as people who told untruths to get elected and then did the opposite in office. "

    It was going quite well until that bit.

    If Balls and Miliband have moved it is nothing to do with the truth and everything to do with the polling. Just like right wing tories who believe that Europe is a winner (it really, really isn't) there is a large part of Labour that will forever be in denial about the need to cut spending. Like Cameron, the leaders will do and say what they think is necessary to win, whatever they think.

    They have accepted though - and this is a BIG thing - that they can't borrow and spend when in power. That goes against the fundamental grain of the party and its supporters.

    I have a suspicion that Ed Balls is a far cannier and sensible politician that most right-wing observers want to admit. He saw what happened under Brown first hand. I don't think a) he will make the same mistake again and b) if he becomes CoE he will allow spending to go out of control.

    I can see him as a tight, hard CoE who would be willing to upset ministers and his supporters.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112

    The Sage of Hodges speaks and his next call is..

    "what was going on in Falkirk was a disgrace, and Tom Watson knew it. Tonight Len McCluskey should also be considering his position."

    This one he's got wrong.....Len is a man on a mission...
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    The next question will be: will any already-decided selections now need to be reopened?
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited July 2013
    Absolutely nothing to see or be concerned about..just a small hiccup in the Labour ranks,and organisation, etc..just keep moving along...until tomorrow...
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited July 2013
    JackW said:

    Storm in a tea cup this Falkirk UNITE affair ....

    Titters ....

    The Cheshire farmer has been befuddled by a cloud of noxious gas seeping from the manure pit.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    JackW said:

    Storm in a tea cup this Falkirk UNITE affair ....

    Titters ....

    All we need is a YouGov tomorrow with Labour on +4 (tho it could as easily be +11) and we can add "chortle"....

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    "our bill"
    It's a private members bill, Dave didn't have the guts to introduce a bill.

    Wrong.

    It's not a government bill, of course, because one of the parties in the coalition doesn't support it and it wasn't in the coalition agreement. But it is a Conservative Party measure, backed by the leadership and very widely backed amongst members.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2013
    @CarlottaVance

    That nice Mr Miliband has written to me :

    Dear JackW

    Help !!

    Ed Miliband.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,045
    Truly inspirational to see how quickly tim can cut back his hours on PB when the weather is choppy.

    3 comments on this thread.

    48 on last one.

    Won't be long before he's back with a line, perhaps Watson going and these 2 new suspensions being evidence he's cleaning the stables?

    Only problem being Watson said Ed said 'please don't go'.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    The next question will be: will any already-decided selections now need to be reopened?

    Richard

    Are you suggesting David should be checking BA flight departures from JFK?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,826

    DavidL said:

    George Eaton reckons Dougkas Alexander a good choice to replace Watson as election coordinator:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/07/after-watson-who-will-run-labours-general-election-campaign

    If nothing else, it sends McCluskey the reply given in Arkell vs Presdram....

    Sadiq Khan got Ed Miliband elected as leader of the Labour party. It is increasingly obvious to all what a remarkable achievement that was. The man is a campaigning genius.
    You undoubtedly have Labour's best interests at heart!

    Just giving credit where credit is due. (I think the expression these days is "innocent face")

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Plato said:

    This paragraph was surely penned by Sion Simon - I can't believe Tom Watson didn't write this in jest.

    “So to make it harder for them let me say this: I’m proud of your Buddha-like qualities of patience, deep thought, compassion and resolve. I remain your loyal servant."


    Watson's final paragraph is especially enjoyable ;

    " John Humphrys asked me why you were not at Glastonbury this weekend. I said Labour leaders can’t be seen standing in muddy fields listening to bands. And then I thought how terribly sad that this is true. So: be that great Labour leader that you can be, but try to have a real life too.
    Translation : You don't have a life - try and get one, or you'll continue to be seen as a geeky wonk.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Storm in a tea cup this Falkirk UNITE affair ....

    Titters ....

    All we need is a YouGov tomorrow with Labour on +4 (tho it could as easily be +11) and we can add "chortle"....

    JackW said:

    Storm in a tea cup this Falkirk UNITE affair ....

    Titters ....

    All we need is a YouGov tomorrow with Labour on +4 (tho it could as easily be +11) and we can add "chortle"....

    Oh no, be fair, I'm saving a "chortle" for the Falkirk by-election count .....

    Titters ....

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    The next question will be: will any already-decided selections now need to be reopened?

    Fancy a bet that the answer is none? You can pay for it with your winnings from your schools bet with tim!

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708
    edited July 2013
    I once found the face of Jesus in a tub of margarine.

    My neighbour from Nepal saw it and said "I can't believe it's not Ed Miliband Buddha"

    I'll get my coat.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Something for our Labour friends who would clearly rather do anything than discuss the news today....

    http://www.ladbrokes.com/which-soapstar-are-you/

    I was someone I'd never heard of....who is Ena Sharples? I should have paid attention....
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    AveryLP said:

    The next question will be: will any already-decided selections now need to be reopened?

    Richard

    Are you suggesting David should be checking BA flight departures from JFK?

    If he's got any sense, he'll stay well away.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013



    Only problem being Watson said Ed said 'please don't go'.

    Buddha's reply to Watson has just been released.

    Buddha now claims that, by lunch today, he was agreeing that Watson should go.

    Another sharp U-turn?

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Neil said:

    The next question will be: will any already-decided selections now need to be reopened?

    Fancy a bet that the answer is none? You can pay for it with your winnings from your schools bet with tim!

    Of course the answer will be none.

    You're right, though, we need to find some more bait for young tim. He usually bites on anything related to Osborne, but Michael Gove is also a profitable angle.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    John Harris, who is a reasonably Labour-friendly voice, sees Tom Watson's resignation as an indication of Labour torpor:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/04/tom-watson-resignation-labour

    "First, there is the fact that the Labour leadership and shadow cabinet are not generating nearly enough noise, and thereby creating a media vacuum. At the moment, Miliband tends to make speeches that may or may not attract much attention, as well doing PMQs and occasionally piping up on whatever issues are deemed to deserve his attention. Many of his colleagues are borderline mute. The space is filled by an increasingly surreal pantomime that is a laugh to write about, but has long since drifted away from anything remotely real."

    "Second, there is the fact that a row over selections between the Blairite right and the Unite-led left says a huge amount about Labour's moribund model of organisation."
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,045
    Where Dan Hodges leads, Ed follows?

    Tom Newton Dunn‏@tnewtondunn34s
    ...Ed spokesman: "As Gen Sec of Unite, he obviously needs to take some responsibility".

    Cracking letter from Ed by the way - 2 'up and down the country's within a paragraph.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    Fenster said:

    DavidL said:

    @Fenster
    "Balls and Miliband have reputations and egos to protect, they won't want to go down in history as people who told untruths to get elected and then did the opposite in office. "

    It was going quite well until that bit.

    If Balls and Miliband have moved it is nothing to do with the truth and everything to do with the polling. Just like right wing tories who believe that Europe is a winner (it really, really isn't) there is a large part of Labour that will forever be in denial about the need to cut spending. Like Cameron, the leaders will do and say what they think is necessary to win, whatever they think.

    They have accepted though - and this is a BIG thing - that they can't borrow and spend when in power. That goes against the fundamental grain of the party and its supporters.

    I have a suspicion that Ed Balls is a far cannier and sensible politician that most right-wing observers want to admit. He saw what happened under Brown first hand. I don't think a) he will make the same mistake again and b) if he becomes CoE he will allow spending to go out of control.

    I can see him as a tight, hard CoE who would be willing to upset ministers and his supporters.

    Fenster said:

    DavidL said:

    @Fenster
    "Balls and Miliband have reputations and egos to protect, they won't want to go down in history as people who told untruths to get elected and then did the opposite in office. "

    It was going quite well until that bit.

    If Balls and Miliband have moved it is nothing to do with the truth and everything to do with the polling. Just like right wing tories who believe that Europe is a winner (it really, really isn't) there is a large part of Labour that will forever be in denial about the need to cut spending. Like Cameron, the leaders will do and say what they think is necessary to win, whatever they think.

    They have accepted though - and this is a BIG thing - that they can't borrow and spend when in power. That goes against the fundamental grain of the party and its supporters.

    I have a suspicion that Ed Balls is a far cannier and sensible politician that most right-wing observers want to admit. He saw what happened under Brown first hand. I don't think a) he will make the same mistake again and b) if he becomes CoE he will allow spending to go out of control.

    I can see him as a tight, hard CoE who would be willing to upset ministers and his supporters.

    sorry Fenster I just don't see that. Balls would be yet another political chancellor ( so that would take us 1997-2020 ) who will shower his mates with gold and starve his opponents. While that may be good pork barrel politics it will do nothing to improve the general state of the country.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Buddha to Watson:

    http://labourlist.org/2013/07/ed-milibands-letter-in-response-to-tom-watsons-resignation/

    "I am enormously grateful to you for the work you have done for the Party in the past two years."

    Trans - "You brought down Blair you f#*kwit,.....and you still think Brown was a good idea,,..
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    More Buddah:

    " I know you will be speaking with eloquence from the backbenches on the issues you care about most. as long as I am leader.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Buddha..why did Watson hang that one around Eds neck..it will be the same as "There is no Money left"..it seems deliberately humiliating and one does have to wonder why..
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Buddha to Watson:

    Never mind "ohmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm" , this Buddah is more "Ummmmmmmmm.."

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Tom Watson has quit politics to spend more time with the media

    — Tim Stanley (@timothy_stanley) July 4, 2013

    [via Iain Martin's Telegraph blog]
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The Telegraph invents a new verb - will it be in the OED by 2015 ?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100224979/tom-watson-resigns-the-tories-are-getting-ready-to-kinnockise-ed-miliband/

    "Tom Watson resigns: the Tories are getting ready to Kinnockise Ed Miliband"
  • Question: Will red Len now jump into bed with Serwotka?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    Tory tweeters still claiming Miliband is weak as he suspends Len McCluskeys girlfriend from the Labour Party.


    A triumph ! The man of steel waits until her big hefty minder has gone home before he pulls her pigtails.


  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Key details from the two letters:

    1) Tom Watson had already offered to resign and Ed Miliband had refused the resignation.
    2) Ed Miliband decided by lunchtime today that something was a resigning matter.

    We don't, however, yet know what the something is.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Doesn't seem that long ago that some were claiming Cameron was too mean at PMQs.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Robert Hutton @RobDotHutton

    We'll only really be able to assess @tom_watson's impact on Labour politics when @Ed_Miliband does Desert Island Discs. #drenge
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    TGOHF said:

    The Telegraph invents a new verb - will it be in the OED by 2015 ?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100224979/tom-watson-resigns-the-tories-are-getting-ready-to-kinnockise-ed-miliband/

    "Tom Watson resigns: the Tories are getting ready to Kinnockise Ed Miliband"

    " The situation is so dire that David Cameron – an expert in party mismanagement – is now able to accuse Miliband of being a poor party manager."
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    Tory tweeters still claiming Miliband is weak as he suspends Len McCluskeys girlfriend from the Labour Party.


    A triumph ! The man of steel waits until her big hefty minder has gone home before he pulls her pigtails.


    As opposed to making Chris Grayling a shadow home sec and dispatching 30 detectives to the Algarve on the say so of a red top.
    Sorry tim - but it's all about the little buddha who knifed his brother.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,033

    "Who is Ena Sharples?"

    Last time I watched Coronation Street, she was sat in the snug of the Rovers' with Minnie Caldwell and Martha Longhurst.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Question: Will red Len now jump into bed with Serwotka?

    Answer: probably not

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Eion Clarke tweets: "Gutted that Tom Watson decided to resign. In the interests of party unity that's all I'll say. A great great man."

    Wonder how long "in the interests of party unity" will last....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    tim said:

    Tory tweeters still claiming Miliband is weak as he suspends Len McCluskeys girlfriend from the Labour Party.

    Yeah hmmm. I don't think I'd push that, it sort of out does your chumocracy jibe, what with Ed and Yvette, Hattie and Jack, Tom and Karie Labour's the shagocracy.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Eion Clarke tweets: "Gutted that Tom Watson decided to resign. In the interests of party unity that's all I'll say. A great great man."

    Wonder how long "in the interests of party unity" will last....

    I love the fact that by saying 'in the interests of party unity, that's all I say' when in doing just that he's highlighted the issue he claims he didn't want to.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    @tim

    Noone gives a monkeys about your diversionary tactics today. its Ed Buddah V Tom Watson Round 1.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    'Tom Watson, a great man" they certainly set the bar low in the Labour Party.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Sauve qui peut....

    "“Union join was established before Ed Miliband became Leader of the Labour Party with the aim of legitimately encouraging ordinary members of trade unions to become members of the Labour Party.

    “However, due to the results of Unite in Falkirk it has become open to abuse but also open to attacks from our opponents that damage Labour.

    “In particular it was a mistake to have a scheme where others pay for people to join the party. Ed Miliband has today ended the scheme. Ordinary members of trade unions should join Labour and they will continue to be encouraged to do so, but that cannot be through schemes that can be tied to individual parliamentary selections or open to attack from our opponents."

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/81350/labour_statement_on_union_join_and_falkirk.html
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited July 2013
    MODERATED
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Indyref market:

    I tried to get 155 GBP on Yes last night over at Hills (at 4/1). The b*****s would only allow me 50 GBP. Must still be smarting over their May 2011 losses.

    How on earth can someone walk into a shop and place 200,000 GBP on No, but you're only allowed a measly 50 quid on Yes?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    perhaps tim knows more about farming than we thought - his impression of a threshing machine is impressive.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,645
    edited July 2013

    Something for our Labour friends who would clearly rather do anything than discuss the news today....

    http://www.ladbrokes.com/which-soapstar-are-you/

    I was someone I'd never heard of....who is Ena Sharples? I should have paid attention....


    Maybe The Skids can help.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bmk2unpW5TI

    A chorus consisting solely of chanting Albert Tatlock.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    - "If it’s NO as the polls are suggesting then that might be a big blow to Salmond’s party which could impact on their GE2015 performance."

    But then, on the other hand, it might not. Punters really ought to consider the possibility, some would say probability, that a No vote in the referendum might actually (counter-intuitively) boost the SNP vote.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112

    'Tom Watson, a great man" they certainly set the bar low in the Labour Party.

    Tom Watson a great great man"

    You missed a "great"....
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited July 2013
    His experience of a slurry tank is probably more appropriate..
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Never been good with numbers have Labour

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10160538/Sketch-Tom-Watson-Labour-MP-for-Drenge-Central.html

    "the fact that he’s dated it the “4nd” of July "
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited July 2013
    @tim: Yes, Ed is slamming shut doors to empty stables with vigour, now that Dave has pointed to the horses bolting in the distance.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 610

    "I can't believe it's not Buddha"

    Brilliant - what odds on Dave using it at PMQs?

  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Labour have to sort out Falkirk, they have been dragged to it by events, even tho it is a non story.. That is not strong ,it is weak..
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,862
    Tim desperately trying to turn disaster into triumph I see...

    Anybody remember Mrs Duffy when even Tim gave up trying to spin it for Labour? :^O
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited July 2013

    Fenster said:

    DavidL said:

    @Fenster
    "Balls and Miliband have reputations and egos to protect, they won't want to go down in history as people who told untruths to get elected and then did the opposite in office. "

    It was going quite well until that bit.

    If Balls and Miliband have moved it is nothing to do with the truth and everything to do with the polling. Just like right wing tories who believe that Europe is a winner (it really, really isn't) there is a large part of Labour that will forever be in denial about the need to cut spending. Like Cameron, the leaders will do and say what they think is necessary to win, whatever they think.

    They have accepted though - and this is a BIG thing - that they can't borrow and spend when in power. That goes against the fundamental grain of the party and its supporters.

    I have a suspicion that Ed Balls is a far cannier and sensible politician that most right-wing observers want to admit. He saw what happened under Brown first hand. I don't think a) he will make the same mistake again and b) if he becomes CoE he will allow spending to go out of control.

    I can see him as a tight, hard CoE who would be willing to upset ministers and his supporters.

    Fenster said:

    DavidL said:

    @Fenster
    "Balls and Miliband have reputations and egos to protect, they won't want to go down in history as people who told untruths to get elected and then did the opposite in office. "

    It was going quite well until that bit.

    If Balls and Miliband have moved it is nothing to do with the truth and everything to do with the polling. Just like right wing tories who believe that Europe is a winner (it really, really isn't) there is a large part of Labour that will forever be in denial about the need to cut spending. Like Cameron, the leaders will do and say what they think is necessary to win, whatever they think.

    They have accepted though - and this is a BIG thing - that they can't borrow and spend when in power. That goes against the fundamental grain of the party and its supporters.

    I have a suspicion that Ed Balls is a far cannier and sensible politician that most right-wing observers want to admit. He saw what happened under Brown first hand. I don't think a) he will make the same mistake again and b) if he becomes CoE he will allow spending to go out of control.

    I can see him as a tight, hard CoE who would be willing to upset ministers and his supporters.

    sorry Fenster I just don't see that. Balls would be yet another political chancellor ( so that would take us 1997-2020 ) who will shower his mates with gold and starve his opponents. While that may be good pork barrel politics it will do nothing to improve the general state of the country.
    I may be completely wrong, I often am, and perhaps Watson is going to set to work doing a political fixer's job for Ed Balls. Maybe he's off to rally the old Brownite faction to get behind a Balls leadership coup?

    I suppose that equally as feasible as me thinking Balls will be strict with the country's finances. More feasible even.

    Inner Labour works in mysterious ways.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited July 2013
    tim said:



    @DPJHodges: Like I wrote yesterday, Labour leadership aren't mucking around on Falkirk now.

    The emphasis on "now" - they had to dither whilst Cam ripped rEd a new one and the big bully boy vacated the scene.

    Reactive not proactive - on everything - policy, welfare, economy, Leveson.

    Just not PM material.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    tim said:

    tim said:

    Tory tweeters still claiming Miliband is weak as he suspends Len McCluskeys girlfriend from the Labour Party.


    Meanwhile the PB Tory favourite seems to think Miliband is going in hard

    @DPJHodges: Like I wrote yesterday, Labour leadership aren't mucking around on Falkirk now.
    You know it's all gone wrong when tim's retweeting his anti hero Hodges.

    Hilarious.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,045
    I do believe tim has now turned to his new hero Dan Hodges twice today, first on the McCann police investigation and now on the hardness of Ed in Falkirk. Plus a slurry of moderations as well.

    Going well.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Good evening, everyone.

    I see Mr. Toad has parped off.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I must say that Tom Watson referring to Drenge in his resignation is quite eccentric. Ed Miliband should have responded in his letter by quoting Bruce Springsteen:

    "So say goodbye it's Independence Day
    All men must make their way come Independence Day."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Paul Waugh tweet of the day: "Drenge is a dish best served cold"
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,661
    Chair of Falkirk CLP suspended by the party. Karie Murphy too.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,862
    antifrank said:

    I must say that Tom Watson referring to Drenge in his resignation is quite eccentric. Ed Miliband should have responded in his letter by quoting Bruce Springsteen:

    "So say goodbye it's Independence Day
    All men must make their way come Independence Day."

    No point beating around the bush. Watson's a complete nutcase.

    He make's Norman Bakers conspiracy theories seem reasonable...

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LabourList @LabourList
    Labour Party spokesperson confirms to us that the entire selection process for Falkirk has been suspended labli.st/14Qd38a
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Drenge have a couple of tracks on Spotify - sound like a public school version of the Fall.

    Their new single is entitled "Bloodsports" - lol.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    corporeal said:

    Which seats are the well positioned in? Off the top of my head there were very few if any 2010Lib Dem seats with a strong SNP result.

    According to Electoral Calculus there are 4 SLD seats within the SNP's reach:

    Argyll and Bute
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
    Gordon
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

    ... and with Menzies Campbell almost certainly retiring you can add North East Fife to the list.

    But the real problem for the SLDs is that only 2 of their 11 seats are safe: O+S plus Charlie Kennedy's seat. They have to fight different campaigns againsts Labour, the SNP and the Tories on a minute budget and with next to no members. Something has to give. Big time.


  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Falkirk non event ....

    Time bomb .... tick tock .... tick tock.
  • OT Miss Recorder Constance Briscoe will appear at the Central Criminal Court tomorrow morning for a preliminary hearing before the Honourable Mr Justice Nicol, having been sent for trial by Westminster Magistrates' Court under s. 51 of the Crime and Disorder Act 1998 on two counts of perverting the course of public justice.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,045
    JackW said:

    Falkirk non event ....

    1298?

    :)

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    JackW said:

    Falkirk non event ....

    Time bomb .... tick tock .... tick tock.

    Robin Brant @robindbrant
    Unite livid in Watson/suspension aftermath, tells BBC 'handling of this investigation has been a disgrace'. Mccluskey adds its 'scandalous'.

    James Cook @BBCJamesCook
    Unite union general secretary Len McCluskey calls for independent inquiry into #Falkirk "stitch-up", saying he has "no trust" in Labour HQ.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,862
    edited July 2013
    JackW said:

    Falkirk non event ....

    Time bomb .... tick tock .... tick tock.

    In the looooooooonnnnnngggggg life of JackW witnessing non-events, where does this one rank?

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,862
    Just need Roger to turn up and tell us it'll all be over by Friday... :^O
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    corporeal said:

    Which seats are the well positioned in? Off the top of my head there were very few if any 2010Lib Dem seats with a strong SNP result.

    According to Electoral Calculus there are 4 SLD seats within the SNP's reach:

    Argyll and Bute
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
    Gordon
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

    ... and with Menzies Campbell almost certainly retiring you can add North East Fife to the list.

    But the real problem for the SLDs is that only 2 of their 11 seats are safe: O+S plus Charlie Kennedy's seat. They have to fight different campaigns againsts Labour, the SNP and the Tories on a minute budget and with next to no members. Something has to give. Big time.


    How very dare you madam place Viscount Thurso on that squalid list.

    Jacobites are fully expecting a majority of North Korean proportions .... or else !!

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,997
    tim's fled again for more consultations. Please stay calm.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Oh my - Len really is peed off - and it was all hugs and kisses only yesterday

    Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
    Red Len: "I can no longer go along with the activities of a Labour Party administration in which I can place no trust".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    F1: don't forget, practice for the German Grand Prix starts tomorrow. P1's from 9am, P2 from 1pm (UK time).

    Vettel's never won a Grand Prix in July, and never won at home either. He seems to struggle at the Nurburgring, but with Red Bull's strength in qualifying (clearly above all but Mercedes) this could be a good chance for him to remedy that.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sunil Plato & Gin1138

    I'm tempted to put a new 2015 GE ARSE projection in the field .... a field close to Falkirk seems appropriate !!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Andrew Griffiths MP @agriffithsmp
    Only 1 Labour MP in the chamber for the adj debate on Stafford Hospital. They clearly don't want to hear what happened on their watch.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Any comments fromConservative Central office on this ..non event..or are they just laughing their socks off
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Glenfiddle

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21580495-union-power-grabs-labour-party-reveal-weakness-top-glenfiddle

    Why t'Economist bothers is beyond the comprehension of OGH. Surely no betting angle here....
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Plato..Haven't they all gone home..nowt happening tomorrow is there
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Someone should take their biros off them - this flurry of press releases, lawyers letters et al is making them look extremely silly and hot-headed.

    Unite press release

    Len McCluskey, the leader of the country's biggest union, Unite today (Thursday 4 July) called upon the Labour party to restore integrity to its discredited inquiry into the selection campaign in the Falkirk Westminster constituency by handing the entire process over to an independent third party.

    Denouncing the party's own “investigation” as scandalous in its shortcomings, McCluskey said in a letter to the party general secretary Iain McNichol that the report was: "Simply a ‘stitch-up’ designed to produce some evidence, however threadbare, to justify pre-determined decisions taken in relation to Falkirk CLP.

    "Even on the basis of this flimsy report, it is clear that these decisions cannot be justified. There is no emergency which would justify imposing these undemocratic restrictions, since any real problems could easily be addressed before embarking on a parliamentary selection process.

    "The report has been used to smear Unite and its members. Even if the allegations of people being signed up to the Party without their knowledge were true, this had nothing whatsoever to do with my union.

    "It is noteworthy that members of the shadow cabinet have been in the lead in initiating this attack upon Unite. Have they had sight of this report while I, the leader of the union put in the frame, has not had the courtesy of a copy?

    "The mishandling of this investigation has been a disgrace. I, however, am obliged to uphold the integrity of Unite, and I can no longer do so on the basis of going along with the activities of a Labour Party administration in which I can place no trust.

    "I will therefore be publicly proposing that an independent inquiry be held into all circumstances relating to Falkirk CLP and the conduct of all parties involved, including Unite, the Labour Party centrally (including the Compliance Unit) and in Scotland, the officers of the CLP itself, and all those who have sought or are seeking nomination as the Labour PPC.

    "Unite will cooperate fully with such an inquiry, and draw appropriate conclusions from any findings regarding our own behaviour. I trust that you will support such an inquiry, will direct all Labour Party employees to cooperate with it and encourage other individuals to do likewise."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Wow, this fight with Len is going BRILLIANTLY for Ed.

    Who could have predicted that?

    Oh, wait...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Len should have called for the enquiry to be judge led. rEd would have been all over it.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    Fenster said:

    DavidL said:

    @Fenster
    "Balls and Miliband have reputations and egos to protect, they won't want to go down in history as people who told untruths to get elected and then did the opposite in office. "

    It was going quite well until that bit.

    If Balls and Miliband have moved it is nothing to do with the truth and everything to do with the polling. Just like right wing tories who believe that Europe is a winner (it really, really isn't) there is a large part of Labour that will forever be in denial about the need to cut spending. Like Cameron, the leaders will do and say what they think is necessary to win, whatever they think.

    They have accepted though - and this is a BIG thing - that they can't borrow and spend when in power. That goes against the fundamental grain of the party and its supporters.

    I have a suspicion that Ed Balls is a far cannier and sensible politician that most right-wing observers want to admit. He saw what happened under Brown first hand. I don't think a) he will make the same mistake again and b) if he becomes CoE he will allow spending to go out of control.

    I can see him as a tight, hard CoE who would be willing to upset ministers and his supporters.

    Fenster said:

    DavidL said:

    @Fenster
    "Balls and Miliband have reputations and egos to protect, they won't want to go down in history as people who told untruths to get elected and then did the opposite in office. "

    It was going quite well until that bit.

    If Balls and Miliband have moved it is nothing to do with the truth and everything to do with the polling. Just like right wing tories who believe that Europe is a winner (it really, really isn't) there is a large part of Labour that will forever be in denial about the need to cut spending. Like Cameron, the leaders will do and say what they think is necessary to win, whatever they think.

    They have accepted though - and this is a BIG thing - that they can't borrow and spend when in power. That goes against the fundamental grain of the party and its supporters.

    I have a suspicion that Ed Balls is a far cannier and sensible politician that most right-wing observers want to admit. He saw what happened under Brown first hand. I don't think a) he will make the same mistake again and b) if he becomes CoE he will allow spending to go out of control.

    I can see him as a tight, hard CoE who would be willing to upset ministers and his supporters.

    sorry Fenster I just don't see that. Balls would be yet another political chancellor ( so that would take us 1997-2020 ) who will shower his mates with gold and starve his opponents. While that may be good pork barrel politics it will do nothing to improve the general state of the country.
    Balls
    - doesn't have an economic policy and is adrift because of it
    - has an open goal vis a vis the banks and Vickers he could use to fill that hole
    - doesn't say a word about Vickers
    - got invited to the Bilderberg coven
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,045
    "Quite encouraged by McCluskeys anger, playing the part nicely"

    This is great stuff - when Cameron attacks Unite, he goes too far and doesn't want any trade union member's vote.

    When Red fearlessly battles the organ grinder, it's all a good act to convince joe public he's well hard but doesn't mean it really as actually they like each other really.

    Anyone remember the US comedy series, Soap, that's what we're getting today.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708
    antifrank said:

    I must say that Tom Watson referring to Drenge in his resignation is quite eccentric. Ed Miliband should have responded in his letter by quoting Bruce Springsteen:

    "So say goodbye it's Independence Day
    All men must make their way come Independence Day."

    Not everyone has my rare talent for slipping in subtle musical references into letters and articles.

    But today it is clear out of Ed and Tom Watson who is Master and Servant.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,972
    JackW - Even if independence is defeated and Labour hold their own in Scotland or even increase their vote, the SNP will still hope to pick up some seats from the Scottish LDs, particularly in rural areas, if independence is defeated they may even get some Labour tactical votes to do so, and with the Union safe the Tories in those seats will hardly be perturbed by SNP gains
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Mr Jones..Balls got an invite to the Bilderberg do ..and accepted it..Is he that desperate for a free meal
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,997
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    tim's fled again for more consultations. Please stay calm.


    Quite encouraged by McCluskeys anger, playing the part nicely
    Possibly, to some extent but Watson's resignation and McCluskey's virulence increases the salience of the issue and the party as divided. Not that I think any of this will have much, if any, impact on VI polls. But Tory morale will be higher and Labour on the defensive and that matters below the surface.

    What is irrefutable is that Ed should have acted decisively and publicly a while back - this has been festering for weeks and McCluskey's entryist ambitions ever since he became Unite's Gen Sec four years ago! Whatever Ed now does will be catch-up, too little and far too late.
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621

    antifrank said:

    I must say that Tom Watson referring to Drenge in his resignation is quite eccentric. Ed Miliband should have responded in his letter by quoting Bruce Springsteen:

    "So say goodbye it's Independence Day
    All men must make their way come Independence Day."

    Not everyone has my rare talent for slipping in subtle musical references into letters and articles.

    But today it is clear out of Ed and Tom Watson who is Master and Servant.
    Will he Leave in silence, or is it just a question of time?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    Mr Jones..Balls got an invite to the Bilderberg do ..and accepted it..Is he that desperate for a free meal

    Fair point. He probably does takes a fair bit of feeding.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    I must say that Tom Watson referring to Drenge in his resignation is quite eccentric. Ed Miliband should have responded in his letter by quoting Bruce Springsteen:

    "So say goodbye it's Independence Day
    All men must make their way come Independence Day."

    Not everyone has my rare talent for slipping in subtle musical references into letters and articles.

    But today it is clear out of Ed and Tom Watson who is Master and Servant.
    I once slipped "If You Tolerate This Your Children Will Be Next" into a formal letter of advice (subsequently reviewed by a QC). That remains my highpoint.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Patrick Wintour tweets: "Trust in Labour's headquarters gone says Len McCluskey as he demands independent inquiry into Falkirk selection, and accuses party of smear"
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited July 2013
    Someone has been (very selectively) leaking bits of the NEC report to Michael Crick:

    http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/united-we-stand-labours-secret-falkirk-west-report/2696

    It seems that one lot were trying to rig it in favour of Len's girlfriend, but that's OK because another lot were trying to rig it in favour of Gemma Doyle's husband.

    Whether others were trying to rig it in favour of the bedroom partners of other Labour figures hasn't been clarified yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,972
    edited July 2013
    What this week's events have proved is that Ed M is the weakest party leader since IDS, both owed their victory to party factions, ie the unions and the Tory Right rather than any personal strengths, both failed to win a majority of their MPs, and while both did manage to improve their party's vote share and get some poll leads both also had weak personal poll ratings, although neither met with hatred amongst the electorate, merely indifference. Ultimately it was the fact that IDS failed to deliver the hard right agenda he was elected to do which lost him the support he needed to keep the leadership while also ensuring he never won over centrist voters. If Miliband loses the unions he is toast, but for him too his links to them have already lost him the centre ground too. At present he has a poll lead, but it is very weak and that is where he is vulnerable
This discussion has been closed.