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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladrokes offering evens that the SNP will increase the number Westminster MPs at GE2015
The big election between now and 2015, of course, is the Scottish Indy referendum in September 2014. If YES wins then, I’d assume, there’d still be Scottish MPs in the UK parliament until a full transfer of power has taken place.
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Watson quits as Labour election chief.
Ho,ho! Shinanigans in tims pastures
Unless there is a serious change in Lib Dem fortunes several of their seats will be up for grabs with the SNP well placed to take advantage. Given where most of their Westminster seats are Labour are less of a threat even if they do well in 2015 (which is a whole other story).
So Tom Watson offered to resign on Tuesday and Miliband turned him down? "Weak, weak, weak"
He's channelling Maggie. Unite! Unite!
I tried to place a bet but the Ladbrokes site just played the chorus from 'The Laughing Policeman' in a loop. Had to reboot in the end just to stop it. Weird.
Hmm.. time to ask Len!
A very curious document.
He has not seen the report on Falkirk. Very, very odd given his position. He wants it published. Brave given his position. He has been undermined by the shadow cabinet. Interesting.
He thinks Ed should get a life. Well, yes.
http://labourlist.org/2013/07/tom-watson-resigns-from-the-shadow-cabinet/
One is reminded of the missing electoral registers from the Glenrothes By-Election in 2009.
Watson resigning, Austin (a close ally of Ed Balls) breaking ranks on the EU. Shadow Cabinet discipline is breaking down.
Paul Waugh@paulwaugh4m
Tom Watson pulled out of journo lunch cos he's got the norovirus. After today's news is @ed_mililband sick as a parrot or over the moon?
Robin Brant@robindbrant5m
...the day after we now know that tom watson offered to resign.
Robin Brant@robindbrant5m
as has been noted by others the ed m internal pmqs briefing note seen by media yesterday had 'i'd rather have tom watson working for me'...
Meanwhile, Tom Watson ally, Lab MP Ian Austin calls for EU referendum next yr. Is EdM in control? pic.twitter.com/cgxq2Z16lB
Wheres Ed??
Tony Blair, TGWU.
Who can see it?
So, taking the parallel a bit further, Tom has resigned in order to organise... a return of Gordon???
Falkirk, SNP gain?
And more importantly - Where's tim?
No! I don't beleive it! tim can't be Watson, can he? LOL
@Lab4aRef
Great to see another Labour frontbench member supports an EU referendum (via @oflynnexpress) pic.twitter.com/fLEcJ6V4Xo
Tory Treasury@ToryTreasury25s
MT @WikiGuido: Best pals Watson and Austin lived together. Watson resigns, Austin calls for EU ref. Miliband knifed. http://guyfawk.es/18ypWci
Niall Paterson@skynewsniall37s
Why did @tom_watson reveal that, having offered to resign, @Ed_Miliband asked him to stay on? Doesn't exactly do his Buddha-boss any favours
In the previous thread, Foxcroft and West were people, not constituencies. Vicky and Catherine.
Only the PB Tories of course...
cynic says:
July 4, 2013 at 3:10 pm
“You have it in you to be an outstanding Labour Prime Minister.”
Damning by faint praise? Why not simply say “I believe you will be an outstanding Labour Prime Minister”?
Tom Watson: "The marketing men, the spin people and the special advisers: they've won [within Labour]." OUCH http://bit.ly/125iAWc
Here come the knives....
"An insincere and evil friend is more to be feared than a wild beast; a wild beast may wound your body, but an evil friend will wound your mind."
"Unity can only be manifested by the Binary. Unity itself and the idea of Unity are already two."
He clearly knew what he was talking about did Buddha
Anyone got a spare taliban to blow up this Buddha? After all how many Buddhas does one need?
In your absence I've been doing my best to convince the sceptics that when you wrote 'overblown' you meant 'overboard' as you had a news sense of Tom's fate.
“So to make it harder for them let me say this: I’m proud of your Buddha-like qualities of patience, deep thought, compassion and resolve. I remain your loyal servant."
Some of the fundamentals of the teachings attributed to Gautama Buddha are:
The Four Noble Truths: that suffering is an ingrained part of existence; that the origin of suffering is craving for sensuality, acquisition of identity, and annihilation; that suffering can be ended; and that following the Noble Eightfold Path is the means to accomplish this;
The Noble Eightfold Path: right view, right intention, right speech, right action, right livelihood, right effort, right mindfulness, and right concentration;
Dependent origination: the mind creates suffering as a natural product of a complex process;
Rejection of the infallibility of accepted scripture: Teachings should not be accepted unless they are borne out by our experience and are praised by the wise. See the Kalama Sutta for details;
Anicca (Sanskrit: anitya): That all things that come to be have an end;
Dukkha (Sanskrit: duḥkha): That nothing which comes to be is ultimately satisfying;
Anattā (Sanskrit: anātman): That nothing in the realm of experience can really be said to be "I" or "mine";
Nibbāna (Sanskrit: Nirvāna): It is possible for sentient beings to realize a dimension of awareness which is totally unconstructed and peaceful, and end all suffering due to the mind's interaction with the conditioned world.
LOL
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/07/what-tom-watsons-resignation-means-for-labour/
"I’ve seen the merry-go-round turn too many times. Whereas the Shadow Cabinet’s for people who still want to get dizzy."
More "demob happy" than "gravitas-to-go". ....
Another one for next werk's PMQs.....
Just as well there's nothing to see here in this fuss about nothing....
corrected for you Richard.
Worth reading in full: the most self-indulgent and patronising resignation letter ever written
Watson's final paragraph is especially enjoyable ;
" John Humphrys asked me why you were not at Glastonbury this weekend. I said Labour leaders can’t be seen standing in muddy fields listening to bands. And then I thought how terribly sad that this is true. So: be that great Labour leader that you can be, but try to have a real life too. And if you want to see an awesome band, I recommend Drenge. "
I think the source of Gordon Brown's absurd Arctic Monkeys claim has revealed himself.
Translation: you spend all day sitting round pontificating and are a complete pushover.
I also wonder if not letting him see it played a fairly large part in his decision. It's not exactly a vote of confidence from the Buddha is it? TW is really annoying but he is not stupid and that was in the letter for a reason.
The best thing about the Tom Watson letter is that Watson is 46, Miliband 43, and yet it's written as if their respective ages are 60 and 16
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100224958/why-tom-watsons-resignation-is-a-personal-victory-for-david-cameron/
If James Kelly is around, the Slovenian mountains were looking very picturesque as I came into land earlier.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/07/after-watson-who-will-run-labours-general-election-campaign
If nothing else, it sends McCluskey the reply given in Arkell vs Presdram....
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/region_scotland/
The SNP's six current seats are Angus, Banff & Buchan, Dundee East, Moray, Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) and Perth & North Perthshire. In four out of six, the Conservatives are the closest challengers - it seems unlikely after five years of Conservatives in UK government that the Conservatives will achieve a positive swing in such seats. The other two are Dundee East and Na h-Eileanan an Iar, and while neither is exactly safe, the polling since 2010 so far suggests that there has been a swing to the SNP rather than to Labour. Their current seats look likely holds.
Given the SNP's performance since 2010, it will have high hopes of making further progress. This is not as easy as it seems, given the large majorities that many Scottish Westminster seats have (and don't get too carried away with Holyrood and local election results - those are different elections under different systems for different purposes, and the Scots are sophisticated voters). But the SNP will looking to profit from the Lib Dem casualties in seats such as Inverness Nairn Badenoch & Strathspey, Gordon and Argyll & Bute. And that's before we start to look at possible gains from Labour.
So evens look very tasty for the SNP tallying more than 6.5 seats.
I suspect there is a deep, visceral and waspish disgust among Brownites that Ed Miliband and Ed Balls have done the sensible thing in moving towards the acceptance of cuts and austerity.
Whoever is at fault for the current economic mess (whether it was Labour, the world economy or even Osborne) every sensible person in the land knows it has to be fixed. And Balls and Miliband did the correct thing in accepting it.
The Serwotka/McCluskey/Unite/Owen Jones/Labour left approach of more borrowing, more spending, pay rises for public sector workers and no cuts that actually affect anyone had to be ignored. Balls and Miliband - to their credit - did ignore it. Probably not because they absolutely wanted to (in reality Cameron and Osborne don't want to make people poorer), but because they know that when in office they will face a Hollande-style problem, and avoiding cuts will be impossible.
Balls and Miliband have reputations and egos to protect, they won't want to go down in history as people who told untruths to get elected and then did the opposite in office. So they accepted austerity.
But accepting austerity is probably impossible for McCluskey. And impossible for the paylords at Unite and the gang who got Miliband elected. The troubles in Falkirk, Watson's resignation and Ian Austin's intervention are all knock on effects of the new Labour direction on economic policy.
If Miliband is made of stern stuff then now is his Clause 4 moment. Walk away from the bonkers element of the unions and he'll be a lot more electable among the 45% or so who voted for Blair.
Take the evens from the magic sign while it lasts .... not long me thinks.
"Labour suspends two party members over Falkirk row - Karie Murphy, Tom Watson's assistant, and the Falkirk Labour chair, Stephen Deans"
"Obviously it’s that relationship with the unions, and in particular with his old flatmate Len McCluskey, that is seen to be the reason for his decision to return to the backbenches. Only time will reveal the full extent of Watson’s full involvement in the affair. But despite the increasingly ludicrous efforts by Unite and sections of the Labour commentariat to brush the scandal under the carpet, what was going on in Falkirk was a disgrace, and Tom Watson knew it. Tonight Len McCluskey should also be considering his position."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100224969/tom-watson-won-battles-but-his-brutal-political-style-is-a-relic-of-the-past-after-the-falkirk-disgrace-he-had-to-go/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Titters ....
"Balls and Miliband have reputations and egos to protect, they won't want to go down in history as people who told untruths to get elected and then did the opposite in office. "
It was going quite well until that bit.
If Balls and Miliband have moved it is nothing to do with the truth and everything to do with the polling. Just like right wing tories who believe that Europe is a winner (it really, really isn't) there is a large part of Labour that will forever be in denial about the need to cut spending. Like Cameron, the leaders will do and say what they think is necessary to win, whatever they think.
"what was going on in Falkirk was a disgrace, and Tom Watson knew it. Tonight Len McCluskey should also be considering his position."
Meanwhile, another QTWTAIN:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/07/will-watsons-departure-prevent-new-round-labour-bloodletting
Master of all he surveys.
Tom Watson proved today he is Paullus.
Now is Ed Miliband Varro?
Some jokes can get lost in translation, but yes I hope to get up into the mountains for a day or two.