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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The trade union member who could be the next Tory leader
I’ve always thought the next leader would be someone associated with George Osborne, he declined to run in 2005 and he probably will not enter the next Tory leadership election, and prefers to be the éminence grise for another Tory leader.
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The Conservative candidate in the Croydon North by-election in 2012 was Andy Stranack, who has an identical twin brother. They are easy to tell apart because Andy has CP and his brother doesn't. One statistic I like is that in the said by-election, 98% of the voters voted for someone who was either gay or disabled or black or Asian - and it wasn't an issue for any of them.
First, Osborne, in true heir-to-Brown style, seems to want to run the whole government from his desk at the Treasury. In the last couple of days, we have had Osborne announcing action on skills, the Northern Powerhouse, and it is said he will also run the referendum. Then there is image: George has just last week hired Mail political editor, James Chapman, as his own spin doctor.
The next leader market is made by (imo) false favourite Boris Johnson. If EICIPM had transpired, Boris would have been the obvious successor to reach out to non-Conservatives and lead the party back to power. But as the Conservatives won a majority, Boris's USP disappears, but worse than that, his still being Mayor of London until next year means he cannot garner any Cabinet experience, even if Cameron was minded to appoint him. Betting is 2/1 (or shorter) Boris, 5/1 bar.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader
Edit: almost forgot -- DYOR.
An interesting market this one, more so given that I can't see either favourite Boris or second Osborne getting the job. George is - as TSE says in the header - too politically astute to go for the top job, he'd rather be pulling the strings behind the scenes. Boris is, well, Boris. His personality works well for a city mayor but I can't see the MPs or party members voting a man who can't keep his pants on for the top job.
Third placed Theresa May has probably had her chance now, although maybe she is the Dave-under-a-bus candidate for the next couple of years. Sajid Javid at 10/1 could be the value among the front runners.
The winner of this contest depends hugely on the timing and context though, a 2005-style contest over six months in late 2017 will produce a very different result to one where Dave falls on his sword having made the wrong call on the EU referendum.
BTW, @SouthamObserver some really good comments from yourself over the past few days on the Labour race - are they really about to follow Miliband with Burnham? I've never joined any political organisation but I'm seriously thinking of paying my 3 quid to vote for Kendall if the MPs don't stitch up the ballot.
The spectre of McBride still hangs over the party.
A lot will depend on the context of the next leadership contest, in particular the fallout of the euro-referendum, the fate of UKIP and whether a Kendallite Labour party becomes a real threat.
An intriguing and well-considered piece. I still think Patel [or future Prime Minister Justine Greening] in better positions, but Halfon could be a surprise.
The Tories won by demonstrating competence, a completely unfair tactic since Labour really could not hope to aspire to it. The next leader will therefore be a continuity candidate who has also demonstrated that competence in government which means a senior position in the cabinet.
I expect Cameron to go in 3-4 years leaving time for the next leader to bed in before the next election If Osborne doesn't stand (and I don't think he will) it will be either Jarvid or Hunt unless someone else (ideally female but not May who is too old) takes the opportunity to shine over that period.
@DrFox – Indeed, a posh education was never the impediment some claimed, OTOH, being christened Nogel …?
Any former doctors will also be members of a College, which is a trade union in all but name.
So although there won't be a majority who are trade union members, as there are in Labour, I would have thought it would be more than a few.
Medical Royal Colleges are not trade unions though. Their charters specifically ban them from negotiations on terms and conditions, or acting as advocates over individual disputes. The BMA takes this role, with about 60% of UK doctors as members. I find the BMA rather supine so am a member of the TUC affiated HCSA, and militant junior doctors often quite like Remedy UK which formed in the aftermath of the disastrous MMC changes pushed through by Patricia Hewitt with support from the BMA.
During the campaign, they all say how great it's going, how their leader is the font of all wisdom, and their policies are perfect for the country.
Afterwards, most say that they knew all the time that there were problems, the strategy was wrong and the policies were misdirected. And as for their leader ....
So they must have been lying beforehand or they are lying now.
The excuse is party loyalty. The press would make it a story of it.
In how many professions is it necessary to lie as a routine? Generally those whose public trust is negligible. Estate agents, the press and politics.
(There is one exception to this and that's show business where for some reason, the public seems to trust 'stars' who are always assuring everyone how much the love each other. It's only in the autobiography that some tell the truth.)
So we can assume that politicians lie as a routine.
Well put.
But that just demonstrates the stupidity of the idea. Putting Gove in charge of this may prove to be a serious mistake. The man has considerable talents but reconciling differing views in a harmonious way is not one of them.
It's important as NO2 is seen as being responsible for tens of thousands of deaths through Europe every year.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/Environment/article1560165.ece
Firstly because the case was mainly about an EU freedom of movement directive, not human rights/ See:
http://ukhumanrightsblog.com/2010/11/29/failure-to-deport-philip-lawrence-killer-was-not-about-human-rights/
Secondly because even if the Human Rights Act hadn't existed but the rights in it had applied in this case he'd presumably have taken the case to Strasbourg instead, probably at taxpayer expense, and got the same result.
Secondly, what is "alien" about preventing torture, illegal detention, the right to a fair trial, the protection of private property rights or respect for family life? Much of the Convention might be regarded as no more than an updated version of the Magna Carta.
Thirdly, the occasionally annoying decisions of the European Court of Human Rights are an inevitable feature of any system which holds elected politicians to the rule of law and puts limits on their competence. A UK bill of rights would have the feature.
Mr. Tokyo, I stand corrected [on the HRA].
Mr. L, the prevention of torture, illegal detention, fair trial and property rights are part of British law without the Human Rights Act. The right to a family life seems open to abuse [it also didn't help the foster kids dragged away from their excellent but UKIP-supporting parents, or the children of Rotherham].
The ECHR's fundamental problem is the undemocratic and extra-territorial creation and imposition of laws. Assuming I'm thinking of the right court in the labyrinthine monstrosity of euroland.
They lead 47-24 at HT
by comparison bet365 is 1.44
Take the SJ Price now
DYOR
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3094596/Liz-Kendall-denies-phone-rage-Labour-leadership-candidate-said-claims-threw-mobile-staff-total-lie.html
Sajid Javid up next, I think he'll be wearing a tie.
The problem with home grown legislation is that politicians can change it. Unless you create a series of constitutional hurdles in the way, as the US does, the concept of there being limitations on the power of the State is lost. Constitutionally, I am not sure how we would do that in this country. I suppose the kind of presumptions and Conventions that surround the European Communities Act might be a way but the protections would not be as nearly absolute as they are at the moment.
The HRA and European courts may well be essential protections of ancient British rights when May attempts her illiberal Snoopers Charter and Terrorism Disruption orders.
I said at the time that Brown never had a fair press. He either got lauded when he didn't deserve it, or got criticised even more than he deserved (the Sun having a go over that letter was not smart).
Miliband didn't exactly help himself. The bacon sandwich and the re-enactment of Moses on Mount Sinai[sp] were both his idea.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Foxinsox, depends on what the British Bill of Rights has in it.
I think I was one of the first (if not the first) on here to say that Miliband was good on identifying issues, but cr@p at picking workable solutions to those problems. And it is fair enough to criticise him for the way he mishandled energy policy when he was in charge of DECC.
Then there are the tricks McBride disclosed in his book about the way the treasury was handled under Brown, Balls and Miliband. either Miliband knew what was going on or he was terminally thick.
Those were my main criticisms of him.
Besides, Cameron and Osborne ("Gideon") got plenty of abuse from the left, much of it downright incorrect. Miliband ate a bacon sandwich, Cameron bought fish in Morrisons.
That's leaving aside the left's utter hypocrisy over the hacking scandal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/10245907/The-terrorist-we-cant-deport-because-of-his-human-rights.html
This is going well...
http://schlagerblog.blogspot.co.at/2015/05/sweden-its-win-for-new-schlager.html?m=1
It does look as if it is not just the UK but also the other founding countries that struggle to win, and while the Scandanavians have dominated recent times, the French, Spanish, Italians and Germans have all done as badly as us in recent years. Germany won a couple of years back but is very much the exception to the modern pattern. The emerging countries of Eastern Europe have won a fair number of times, but the success has been very thinly spread with no one country dominating.
Better luck next year...
Were the IRA disarmed by internment and Bloody Sunday? Or by careful intelligence and application of the law?
The smart move would be to keep her in place until 2016, to take some flak for things such as the EU-referendum U-turn and other movement away from the crapness of the Ed years. But the new leader would come in with the political scenery already changed.
If you fail asylum you should be sent back to your state of origin, no ifs, no buts.
Which bleeding heart beak is keeping him in. And another thing, convicted terrorists lawyers should be forced to do this shit on a pro bono basis. I don't even think this is about the EU or EHCR - this is a problem with some of our own judges/lawyers on the hard left.
Remedy UK closed a few years ago - the decided they couldn't do what the wanted/needed to do effectively. It was a shame, because I think an effective junior doctors union would be very useful.
I have been no fan of Labour for the past 10 years, but a government needs an effective opposition and most centrists should feel that they have a choice when the election comes around.
Labour needs as long a campaign as is necessary for them to work out what they stand for and who they are as a party - the stories of the unions trying to stitch up the election so it's a two horse race between Mrs Balls and Mr Stafford Hospital are ever so worrying to this centrist voter.
The English language is a big problem for us though in this regard in that everyone pretty much speaks English and thats a pull for both desirables and undesirables.
We have enough problems with our own convicts. If he has an Italian passport we should be able to deport him back to Italy.
I can understand the rules on not returning people to where they may be tortured, but the idea that we can't deport people back to other EU and ECHR countries is bonkers.
Either way you really need to read a proper summary of the case before drawing conclusions about the judge - unfortunately British newspapers hardly ever summarize them accurately.
The test figures will be run rolling roads and laboratory produced won't they? , like fuel consumption. How else can the engine be tested to meet the standard.
Effectively you're applying for a job. A classic interview question is "What are your weaknesses?" Doesn't everyone think, "What weakness can I admit to that won't be damaging to my chances?" If the reality is, say, that you tend to drink too much or you're rather lazy, is anyone going to be truthful in that situation?
On the doorstep, I said things about Ed like, "Well, he's obviously not a super salesman, but he stands up to vested interests and I think people will be pleasantly surprised." That was more or less what I thought, but if it had been on TV, it would certainly have been a story: "Candidate admits doubts about Miliband as Labour panic spreads" or the like.
The problem I have with this HRA business is that, at present, it is not apparent how things will actually be improved. Overly activist judges from the ECHR, making political decisions essentially that, under our own system, politicians could always get around if they wanted, can be a problem, but while I'm sure we are not about to abolish human rights by replacing the HRA, some whispers seem to be that in essence very little will change, in which case why both doing it when the party will face internal troubles about it which are not as easily dismissed as some of the more crackpot rebellious types, and they have in no way prepared the public for why the change is 'needed', and it will in fact be very easy to portray it as some heartless attack on human rights themselves. So long as someone is not obviously a sneery elitist, if anything a posh person to some degree might be a help. A lot of people used to fall back on that Cameron just looks and sounds like a PM, and his poshness is part of that. We expect MPs to be white, middle aged men, probably with a legal or medical background (ok, he misses that one), and while that is less overwhelmingly true now, it is still the default image people have of MPs. And PMs being Eton and Oxbridge educated also just fits with a mental image of PMs specifically.
While in the real world the figures may not be as good, what the tests do is to enable comparisons between similar cars in a class.
I think this was notable at the Progress event (sorry to mention again, but it's about the only thing during the Labour leadership contest I've seen), where Cooper, Burnham and Creagh all waffled and gave non-answers about why they had not said anything sooner if they are not saying they could see what was wrong with the Labour campaign, Kendall tried to indicate she had done what she could despite having misgivings, and Hunt said he had thought at the time it was ok.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/sebastian-payne/2015/05/alistair-carmichael-responsible-for-nicola-sturgeon-leak/
The best paragraph:
"Sturgeon will undoubtedly continue to insist that her views were misrepresented by the memo. However, the fact that an independent investigation has shown she did say she’d prefer Cameron to be PM makes for an interesting postscript to the election. For Carmichael, who is now the only remaining Lib Dem MP north of the border, this revelation is a bitter conclusion to his time in office. Update: Nicola Sturgeon has now tweeted a copy of the letter she received from Carmichael. In it, he appears to suggest that the details of the account are not correct. This seems somewhat at odds with the findings of the independent report."
I'm not sure which of the Spectator editors, Fraser or Isabel, reviewed this article, I think they could both do with a journalism refresher course. The Spectator and the DT seem to be intent on continuing to push water up hill on this story. The sad thing is any quality journalist would be seeking to hold Carmichael, Rennie and possibly Mundel to account on this story.
[The User Formerly Known as Grandiose.]
Like his support for apprenticeships though.
Each position is oversubscribed: we've shown to young people that apprenticeships are a good option. And the apprenticeships are there, employers are using them.
They managed to do pretty much the whole lab test using the battery hybrid developed from F1 and Le Mans, without having to fire up the 600bhp engine.
It's exempt from the Congestion Charge in London and from paying road tax. Yours for $1m, except they sold all 918 of them!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_918
As for your other question, for the initial values that are used in adverts and promotional materials:
1) You make the profile of the rolling road better match typical driving profiles, and not the ideal. Stop testing at high altitude, and do a range of tests with varying loads.
2) You also perform tests on the road in real-world conditions.
3) You then alter the required MOT results downwards accordingly.
As an aside, it's about time that manufacturers fiddling MPG figures in adverts was stopped.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/mar/14/car-manufacturers-manipulating-fuel-efficiency-tests
It can be done: Euro NCAP have done a superb job wrt safety.
Media scare tactics on Putin (or should I say Vladolph?) clearly rapidly losing their effectiveness (except on PB).
We got 5 points. But I'm sure this was the year when they said we've got a real, real, chance of winning?