politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It will be of little comfort to the yellows but GE15 proved
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It will be of little comfort to the yellows but GE15 proved to be a great example of the power of first time incumbency
A short paper headed “Lib Dem incumbency advantage persists but fails to prevent disaster” by Tim Smith of the University of Nottingham has just been published and provides valuable evidence of the power of first time incumbency.
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LD vote share retention, 2015 vs 2010, lowest to highest.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m9D1CqtjKAjfeXKp0TznN8_cJUiuWHafIB67sV1kFqo/edit#gid=0
Eastleigh, amongst many others, will be releived to know that every cloud has a silver lining.
- is it because the voters are inclined to give them another shot (effectively loss aversion, with the loss representing the admission that they made a mistake first time round)
- or is it just that first time incumbents work harder than everyone else?
Either way, some interesting data, thank you
In my view their only chance of a by election win in this Parliament would be in one of their own seats, if, for example, Clegg found a happier place to be. Even then they might struggle.
In many of the seats they have lost I think their vote will fall a lot further without incumbency. In Berwickshire, for example, Moore fell from first to third but still got a respectable 10K votes. I would be astonished if they got half of that the next time. Similarly in Gordon and other seats where they got tactical support they will lose out if they lose the tag of being the obvious alternative.
The last hopes for the Lib Dems are that the Tories are stupid enough to replace Cameron with someone less centrist to chase the UKIP vote or Labour literally fall apart. Both look petty remote to me.
If that is right then there should be a difference between first time incumbents who win the seat from another party and those who simply inherit it from a retiring MP. There will be bigger pools to look for that kind of difference when we get the Tory analysis in particular.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.com/2015/05/2020-lib-dems-sifting-through-wreckage.html
If you are a grass roots campaigner who has finally won a seat, used to surviving on a shoe string the idea of having full time properly paid staff, an office in the centre of town with the rent covered, phones, office equipment and an official mail bag to deal with must seem absolute luxury.
There really should be a massive lift in profile and performance at the next election. As antifrank says, however, that is something of a one shot deal although quite a number of MPs, especially Lib Dems historically, use these advantages to build majorities time after time.
To preempt any conclusions Mike may draw on the general wonderfulness of LibDems, Labour will show less incumbency effect and the Tories the least. This reflects the strength of the party brand and the fact that LibDems are perceived by voters as a grouping of independents.
Just catching up on yesterday's threads, a very good article by @Tissue_Price thanks.
Also, to @Morris_Dancer don't forget that first practice day at Monaco is on Thursday not Friday, 9am UK time.
Will be interesting to return to these in advance of the next election, especially in light of the new boundaries.
If the Tories suffer the usual swing against a governing party, if a potential Labour/SNP coalition can no longer be used to frighten the electorate and if UKIP decline the the LibDems under a new leader may well improve.
Lots of 'if's so we'll have to wait and see.
Stephen Crabb (Welsh Secretary) when interviewed last night said that he thought it unlikely that the EU referendum would be advanced to 2016, as the elections in Wales and Scotland could conflict and prevent electors from focusing on the referendum.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dem-membership-numbers-soar-despite-the-partys-woeful-election-performance-10256601.html
My conclusion from that and antifrank's analysis is that the Lib Dems are not going to be major players at Westminster for a long time. If they want to survive as a party their absolute priority is rebuilding their LG roots.
For me that makes Farron a no brainer. He is the only Lib Dem who is not going to be worrying about his seat being lost the next time and he has always focussed more than most on that part of the party.
So FTI share goes up 5pp = incumbency swing
STI stays flat (already incorporating incumbency benefit)
After 2 terms MP retires: share goes down 5pp with loss of incumbency
On a more serious note, I think there's a role for a soft-left, centrist party in British politics that espouses liberalism for as long as the Labour Party remains wedded to both the unions and state authorianism.
If, say, a solely English Labour Party broke it's links with the labour movement and ditched its authoritarianism in favour of centre-left English radicalism, then I could see a merger and the end of the liberals, but until then I think they will be with us in some guise or other.
The Lib Dems just reach parts of England that Labour cannot.
Mr. Moses, unsurprised the former Labour councillor wants a pact with Labour.
This partly explains too why first incumbency is so noticeable. If winning from an opposing party then the first time incumbent both gains their own incumbency and their opponents face unwind of their old incumbency advantages.
The danger then for the Lib Dems is that there will be incumbency unwind in 2020 in the seats they lost now. So while incumbency is an advantage while you hold the seat, it double-edged when you lose it. They may need to face a large scale than simple UNS will imply.
"Yes, the People’s Army secured a fair few votes more than I was predicting. And in a week or so’s time I shall be running naked down Whitehall in penance (and support of two great charities,Terrence Higgins Trust and Elizabeth's Legacy of Hope, thanks to my kind sponsors, Ladbrokes. More on this later)."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11617846/Nigel-Farage-is-the-Europhiles-greatest-weapon.-Hooray-for-Ukip.html
Something for you - new words approved by Scrabble http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/leaders/article4446497.ece
Labour are on the left and anyone unhappy with Labour are likely to move to the Greens.
The Tories swallowed the Lib Dems` right wing vote and anyone unhappy with them has an alternative with UKIP on the right.
The UK`s political system is much more fragmented than in 1974 when the Libs were the third choice.
"Labour were seen as too profligate, too soft on welfare and immigration, and too incompetent, according to a major post-election poll carried out by the Trade Union Congress (TUC)."
They needed a survey to tell them that?
Yes, many potential and current voters are left on economic issues but they're often 'conservative' on social issues even in Merseyside. That's why Ukip did pose a threat away from the metropolitan areas. 'Bash the bankers' is popular but 'open the borders' less so.
Very old Labour, in fact.
The GMB and Unite unions said progress had been made in talks but not enough to resolve the dispute.
The Offshore Contractors Association said it was "extremely disappointed" that the ballot was to go ahead.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-32823521
There were 48 seats where LDs got 25% or more of the vote, despite the poor national polling, so some base for rebuilding.
There are many unknowns in the next parliament, with the Euro-referendum and support for UKIP being major unknowns, as will be the fate of Scotland and the outcome of the Miliband and Cameron successions. There are also the possibilities of events such as a further recession or mid-East or Russian war.
In all of this there is room for a sensible centrist party that can appeal outside inner cities.
Comparing with the all-out local elections on the same day, both AS and I had 20% more votes than the total of the borough Tory and Labour candidates. I read this as mostly just polarisation in a 2-horse marginal rather than much surviving past or current incumbency edge. Given two familiar candidates, mostly people just voted on the national picture. Where the challenger is new, it must be even harder.
Excellent blog by the way.
I think the LDs need a new and unique point of differentiation. Since they're no longer a big enough parliamentary bloc to matter anyway, they should become the 'free' party - every MP voting solely on their conscience, with the electorate their judge. A position which cannot be invaded by any other party for obvious reasons.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.com/2015/05/2020-lib-dems-sifting-through-wreckage.html
"7 May 2015 was a disastrous day for the Lib Dems. But it seems to me that the extent of the disaster has yet to be fully understood. It is entirely possible that it was the day that ended the Lib Dems as a significant force in British politics."
I agree. The Lib Dems seem to think that all they need to do is campaign a bit harder. The reality is that they could even fall further at GE2020. But choosing Tim Farron will be a comfort blanket although it will finish off hopes of attracting back 2015 Conservatives. Just wait for more of Tim's "evil tories" speeches.
Innocent face.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQ6TgaPJcR0
Cable's a one-eyed hypocrite.
* Long term economic plan
* We're the fastest growing nation of all major western economies.
* The UK has put on more jobs than the rest of Europe combined.
* £8bn extra funding for the NHS
* A seven day NHS with seven day 8 to 8 GP opening hours
And so on. If you don't remember any talk of the Long Term Economic Plan or other points, then its not because the Conservatives didn't say them often enough. The Conservatives played a tried and tested strategy of "the plan is working but don't rock the boat". That's what successful governments do.
Really hate the way people have started being called retreads.
1. Did your canvassing indicate that you were going to lose? If yes how close to election day was that? If No why was it at fault?
2. Same question for the loss of Broxtowe Labour councillors.
Until now its been assumed that the Lib Dems were a major party, this election has to bring that into question. But it would be an absolute travesty were they to be considered a major party for the European Elections.
A party of 30-50 MPs may have been able to argue they're still a major party and should have that status for Europe despite a dreadful result last time. A party of 8 MPs and 1 MEP keeping major party status for Europe would be beyond a joke.
Politicians should not be depicted as pickpockets, mind - that was a bridge too for me personally though I doubt anyone else cared who would consider voting Conservative. The "pocket" attack ad was fine.
What word would you use, because Nick's choice entirely matches a dictionary definition of the word.
Not sure which two other parties you think would overtake them in MPs though. I think the LDs will hold on to fourth or fifth, though any party in single digits (besides the nationalist parties) are basically glorified independents.
Labour currently have many voters who still vote purely on economic grounds and they don't want reminded constantly of Labour's social policies. They still vote for the 'old' Labour party; Mrs Duffy probably still votes Labour.
Frank Field would not have had a problem with Mrs Duffy. He might not have agreed with her, but he would understand her concern.
Currently Labour consists of two tribes with the 'progressives' in control. The 'Frank Fields' are something of an embarrassment but some may sit on their hands at election time. That may be what happened on the 8th. To win next time, you need to enthuse both.
Perhaps the LDs can go for the metropolitan elite vote and push social issues even more to the forefront while Labour concentrates on its original economic issues, the Keir Hardie prospectus.
But I suspect that suggestion will go nowhere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastbourne_by-election,_1990
Good proposals on immigration by the Conservatives.
Instead they seemed to themselves be incredibly uncomfortable with being junior party in a coalition. Well if the coalition partners themselves aren't happy with it, why should the voters be? So the public made a forced choice instead which has killed off the third party and any hopes they may have had for voting reform. I don't see any public appetite for permanent coalition government.