politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on six days after
Comments
-
Sadiq Khan doesn't put a foot wrong in this Evening Standard interview:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/full-interview-as-he-launches-his-bid-for-city-hall-sadiq-khan-says-i-wont-be-a-zone-one-mayor-10247056.html
Quite a formidable candidate, I think.0 -
Seeing as Jaywick is still officially the biggest khazi in the uk after Douglas has been MP there for a decade, why doesn't he use the money to help the lives of people living in the dump rather than refuse it to make a high minded pointScott_P said:@rowenamason: Ukip after Farage-Carswell summit: There's ongoing discussion about how best to represent 4m UKIP voters in a way that is sensible + correct
Translation; Carswell said no0 -
Old King Cole..In India I once counted nine on a motor scooter..going the wrong way around a roundabout.I asked my driver why they went that way and he said... It is quicker..0
-
So what?AndyJS said:The last time the Tories won an overall majority in 1992, 32.6% of the electorate voted for them (41.9% on a 77.7% turnout). This time 24.4% did so (36.9% on a 66.1% turnout).
0 -
Confirms what I found when compiling the new Labour target list. They need a swing in the marginals of 8.7% compared to 4.7% previously. If you exclude Scotland, the figure rises to 9.4%.antifrank said:The url says it all:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/labours-path-back-power-tougher-you-think
"To win a majority of ten, Labour would have to win Harlow, Shipley, Chingford & Woodford Green, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Basingstoke, Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kensington, Rugby, Leicestershire North West, Forest of Dean and Gillingham & Rainham. Of those ten, four – Chingford, Kensington, Filton & Bradley Stoke and Basingstoke – have never been won by Labour at any point in its history. All are Conservative-held."0 -
Presumably before the boundary changes. Would be fascinating to know just how deep they would need to go into blue turf before getting their majority of ten in that case....antifrank said:The url says it all:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/labours-path-back-power-tougher-you-think
"To win a majority of ten, Labour would have to win Harlow, Shipley, Chingford & Woodford Green, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Basingstoke, Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kensington, Rugby, Leicestershire North West, Forest of Dean and Gillingham & Rainham. Of those ten, four – Chingford, Kensington, Filton & Bradley Stoke and Basingstoke – have never been won by Labour at any point in its history. All are Conservative-held."0 -
In the council they voted UKIP - for MP they voted blue for fear of a Lab-SNP pact. Farage would probably win a re-run (before his un-resignation at any rate).Brom said:
Some people have been saying that Thanet Council has different boundaries to the North & South Thanet seats. Even allowing for this Tories scored 42k in both seats and UKIP 26k in both seats. For UKIP to get 54k and Tories 46k in the council elections is most unusual surely for a vote that took place on the same day.LucyJones said:
I'm sure we're getting ahead of ourselves but if they had to re-run the election then why wouldn't Farage be expected to win (barring unforeseen future events and on the assumption that the fraud was committed against Farage)?williamglenn said:
I wouldn't fancy Farage's chances if they rerun the election.Morris_Dancer said:Fraud probe in Thanet South:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32725167
They returned a Ukip Council in Thanet... and what about the supposed British sense of "fair play"? Speaking personally and, of course, hypothetically, I would be much, much more likely to vote for someone - of any party - if they had lost their seat because they had been fraudulently denied it.
Of course it could be The Council election was the one that was rigged! or more likely the local Lab/Tory rotating council was hated in a similar way to the Green Council in Brighton.
I'm not holding up much hope for a re-run but hopefully UKIP are not the ones involved in the ill deeds.0 -
Here's the new Labour target list:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZQUmFIb0xPaURkeGdubVBCRHJkbmc#gid=0
A 10% swing in every marginal in England and Wales would give Labour an overall majority of just 16 seats. (Assumes they don't win anything back from the SNP).MarqueeMark said:
Presumably before the boundary changes. Would be fascinating to know just how deep they would need to go into blue turf before getting their majority of ten in that case....antifrank said:The url says it all:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/labours-path-back-power-tougher-you-think
"To win a majority of ten, Labour would have to win Harlow, Shipley, Chingford & Woodford Green, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Basingstoke, Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kensington, Rugby, Leicestershire North West, Forest of Dean and Gillingham & Rainham. Of those ten, four – Chingford, Kensington, Filton & Bradley Stoke and Basingstoke – have never been won by Labour at any point in its history. All are Conservative-held."0 -
His preference for racial quotas will likely win him support in the Labour nomination, but will be a major negative in the actual election. That's assuming the Conservative candidate is confident enough to actually make an issue of them.Richard_Nabavi said:Sadiq Khan doesn't put a foot wrong in this Evening Standard interview:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/full-interview-as-he-launches-his-bid-for-city-hall-sadiq-khan-says-i-wont-be-a-zone-one-mayor-10247056.html
Quite a formidable candidate, I think.0 -
Probably because that would be illegal. It's not a bung. the money can only be used for Parliamentary expensesisam said:Seeing as Jaywick is still officially the biggest khazi in the uk after Douglas has been MP there for a decade, why doesn't he use the money to help the lives of people living in the dump rather than refuse it to make a high minded point
0 -
In economics and politics it's the delta that matters, the change. The change is that the deficit has come down every single year in a controlled manner. That is responsible. If the deficit was going up it would be irresponsible.Luckyguy1983 said:
We've doubled the national debt. What is the point of the Tories if it isn't fiscal responsibility?Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Pretending that there's no difference between Balls, Miliband, Brown, Burnham ... Or Cameron, Osborne, Gove, May, Hunt etc may make you feel smug but it's untrue. We've significantly changed direction in last few years. I can see Conservative policies getting enacted in the economy, in education, in health ... That we're winning the elections too is a necessary but not sufficient reason for being happy.isam said:
Exactly what I have been saying for years. Tories like Cameron because he gets the party called the conservatives in No10... Having v few Conservative policies is neither here nor therePlato said:Maybe it's because we recognise he's a winner for us. I don't like his greenies stuff and moaned to him on email back in 2010.
But he's gained my team over 130 seats and changed the perception of the Tories for the first time in decades into a Maj Party.
Why would most of us complain as centre-right voters? There were lots of PBTories who moaned about the campaign and Crosby and and and - then they shut up or accepted they were wrong.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not meaning to be funny Phil, particularly as you are not one of those who comes over as a party fanatic, but the Tories who criticise Cameron do seem to be pretty few and far between.
To make an analogy if you're travelling 100 miles an hour down the motorway in the wrong direction you can't just do an emergency stop or crash through the hard shoulder. You need to slow down, and in a controlled manner find an exit and turn around. It will still take some time to get back to where you're supposed to be.
We didn't crash the car and we're not where we want to be but we're heading in the right direction.0 -
Let's see what he has to say on racial quotas (discrimination against white British who are a minority in London anyway)Richard_Nabavi said:Sadiq Khan doesn't put a foot wrong in this Evening Standard interview:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/full-interview-as-he-launches-his-bid-for-city-hall-sadiq-khan-says-i-wont-be-a-zone-one-mayor-10247056.html
Quite a formidable candidate, I think.0 -
@StigAbell: Political apology in the Sun today. http://t.co/4Av40kcYpT0
-
Mr. JEO, the Conservatives should, and they should bang on about it on the national stage as well. Discriminating against white people would not, I venture, prove a vote-winner.0
-
I think by the time we're in the thick of the campaign both sides will highlight fears which they know have no basis in fact. For me the big issue with leaving the EU is the disruption to many London based financial services business models requiring them to relocate head offices to an EU state. That said, the MSM will happily present this as a good and a bad thing, depending which side they are on.Richard_Tyndall said:
Interesting that the fears you had for the IN campaign are ones they are already trying to use and which are being easily refuted whereas you had to make up fears for the OUT campaign. Perhaps because the OUT campaign doesn't need to rely on fears, just the facts of the EU as it is now?calum said:If I were Dave I would be pushing ahead with the EU referendum ASAP, holding it next May on the same day as Holyrood would seem to make sense. Both the IN and OUT campaigns are likely to be Project Fear on steroids, with the right wing MSM being all over the place, tensions will run high perhaps we may even have some fisty cuffs at Daily Telegraph editorial meetings. Here’s a few ideas to get the campaign strategists going:
Project Fear – IN Campaign
- City of London will be damaged as firms move head offices and operations to EU states
- Lack of freedom of movement of labour damage economy
- EU trade agreements to be renegotiated with poor bargaining position
- Many of the 2 million UK expats in EU may be forced to return
- As most expats are retired will cause increased pressure on NHS
- Have to queue in the non-EU line when entering an EU state
Project Fear – OUT Campaign
- The tide of immigration could eventually submerge the UK
- 95% of UK laws decided by the EU parliament
- EU costs UK squillions of £s
- There be monsters in the new EU states
- UK will eventually be made to join the Euro
- If we don’t leave the EU the big bad bankers will stay in London
I think the IN campaign will win but there is a real risk that the negative campaigning will drive a chasm in England as UKIP and the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party try to come to terms with defeat.0 -
Would have thought an mp with 650k to spend a year on staff would be better placed to help his poor constituents than one with less money.Scott_P said:
Probably because that would be illegal. It's not a bung. the money can only be used for Parliamentary expensesisam said:Seeing as Jaywick is still officially the biggest khazi in the uk after Douglas has been MP there for a decade, why doesn't he use the money to help the lives of people living in the dump rather than refuse it to make a high minded point
Agree to disagree0 -
As London and Scotland are likely to be IN supporting that would give Dave an advantage, particularly if the relative turn out was higher compared to rUK.PeterC said:
Next May would be an appalling choice. Holding three separate votes on the same day - Holyrood, London Mayor & Local Govt plus EU-ref would do justice to none of them. EU-ref autumn 2016 at the earliest I would say.calum said:If I were Dave I would be pushing ahead with the EU referendum ASAP, holding it next May on the same day as Holyrood would seem to make sense. Both the IN and OUT campaigns are likely to be Project Fear on steroids, with the right wing MSM being all over the place, tensions will run high perhaps we may even have some fisty cuffs at Daily Telegraph editorial meetings. Here’s a few ideas to get the campaign strategists going:
Project Fear – IN Campaign
- City of London will be damaged as firms move head offices and operations to EU states
- Lack of freedom of movement of labour damage economy
- EU trade agreements to be renegotiated with poor bargaining position
- Many of the 2 million UK expats in EU may be forced to return
- As most expats are retired will cause increased pressure on NHS
- Have to queue in the non-EU line when entering an EU state
Project Fear – OUT Campaign
- The tide of immigration could eventually submerge the UK
- 95% of UK laws decided by the EU parliament
- EU costs UK squillions of £s
- There be monsters in the new EU states
- UK will eventually be made to join the Euro
- If we don’t leave the EU the big bad bankers will stay in London
I think the IN campaign will win but there is a real risk that the negative campaigning will drive a chasm in England as UKIP and the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party try to come to terms with defeat.0 -
Promising:
Iain Martin @iainmartin1
Switched on Labour MP tells me that post-defeat PLP meeting "utterly delusional." Praise for Ed + no acknowledgement of causes of defeat.0 -
Still time for Labour to refuse to accept Ed's resignation and for him to 'unresign'.Tissue_Price said:Promising:
Iain Martin @iainmartin1
Switched on Labour MP tells me that post-defeat PLP meeting "utterly delusional." Praise for Ed + no acknowledgement of causes of defeat.
0 -
@theobertram: Cheeky endorsement for Burnham/Watson ticket from the Tories @wallaceme http://t.co/P079iJjgh10
-
Andrea may be able to confirm but I got the impression that the new PLP is markedly more left-wing than the old one.JonathanD said:
Still time for Labour to refuse to accept Ed's resignation and for him to 'unresign'.Tissue_Price said:Promising:
Iain Martin @iainmartin1
Switched on Labour MP tells me that post-defeat PLP meeting "utterly delusional." Praise for Ed + no acknowledgement of causes of defeat.0 -
PLP is much left wing, which is a problem for any blairite (moderate) candidate.0
-
A big part of the problem Labour has inflicted on itself with its quotas obsession is that a lot of its MPs must now be there not because they are good, but because they are Asian, gay, or have a uterus.Plato said:Many on the Left should absorb this.
Tissue_Price said:This data on LGBT MPs is great: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/uk-broke-its-own-record-lgbt-representation-last-week
It seems we as a country really don't give a sh*t about our MPs' sexual orientation, which is fantastic.The Conservatives put up more openly gay candidates than any other party: 39 men and three women. Of their 13 out MPs at dissolution, 12 stood for re-election and only one lost (Eric Ollerenshaw in Lancaster and Fleetwood) but his loss was made up for by the election of Ben Howlett in Bath. Howlett overcame a huge Liberal Democrat majority and was one of the sparkling Tory victories of the evening. A quick analysis of the 50 races where there were competitive LGBT candidates shows that Tory LGBT candidates performed considerably better than their straight colleagues. 72 per cent of them had larger vote share increases than the national trend, and on average their gains were three times the Tory average.
None of these qualities fits them for office any more than having red hair. They just equip them for looking a bit like some of the electorate. So some of the PLP are people who might have some ability, but others are just quota tossers.
The PLP is thus quite a lot smaller than one might think.0 -
I think labour could make some money selling their 'Dickens glasses'. Put them on, and you see modern Britain as the world of Hard Times.0
-
They are called Auto-Rickshaws in India!OldKingCole said:
You've never seen a tuk-tuk in India, I take it! We once counted at least 16 in on, admittedly including a babe-in-arms.williamglenn said:
So the Lib Dems could have squeezed into a taxi even before last Thursday?Plato said:OT Astonishing video shows Chinese police removing FIFTY-ONE passengers from a six-seat van after pulling over vehicle when it was spotted swaying in traffic http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/peoplesdaily/article-3079633/51-passengers-6-seater-minibus-China.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auto_rickshaw0 -
Once they've got the nominations the PLP doesn't matter much. It becomes a battle between the membership (mostly metropolitan and trendy) and the unions (but their influence over their members may not be as pronounced this time).Daniel said:PLP is much left wing, which is a problem for any blairite (moderate) candidate.
If Umunna or Kendall can cut through to affiliated members, bypassing the union leaderships, they may win.0 -
The party's political position is Centre:peter_from_putney said:
Ah yes, I remember now, you voted Labour, so I suppose the likes of Farron, Cable and Ashdown (and Mike Smithson for that matter|) would appear as "Centrists" from your perspective. Everything is relative I suppose.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Oh, dear! Naught but Lefty straw-clutching from Peter_from_Putney!peter_from_putney said:
Who exactly are you referring to as "Centrists"? Not the LibDems surely?Sunil_Prasannan said:
50.6% of UK voters voted for Right-wing partiesAndyJS said:The last time the Tories won an overall majority in 1992, 32.6% of the electorate voted for them (41.9% on a 77.7% turnout). This time 24.4% did so (36.9% on a 66.1% turnout).
40.5% for Left-wing parties
8.9% for Centrists and others
The English are easily the most right-wing of the Home Nations:
Right-wing 55.1%
Left-wing 35.9%
Centrists/others 9.0%
The Scots are far and away the most left-wing of the Home Nations:
Left-wing 75.7%
Right-wing 16.5%
Centrists/others 7.8%
The Welsh are much less left-wing than the Scots, with a substantial right-wing minority:
Left-wing 51.9%
Right-wing 40.8%
Centrists/others 7.3%
While in NI, there is a more even split, with right-wing parties winning a plurality.
Right-wing 47.9%
Left-wing 39.8% (or 42.3 inc. Lady Hermon if you consider her pro-Labour)
Centrists/others 12.3% (9.8 exc Hermon)
But I think the overwhelming majority would reasonably consider the Libdems as being decidedly left of centre.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats0 -
Sounds about right! A relation once went to Thailand but said he couldn't go again; couldn't stand the poverty.richardDodd said:Old King Cole..In India I once counted nine on a motor scooter..going the wrong way around a roundabout.I asked my driver why they went that way and he said... It is quicker..
"For God's sake", I said. "Don't go th India.!"0 -
Racial politics of any kind should not be a vote-winner. Why does a Labour MP think that adopting the Tower Hamlets model (channelling money and favours to groups on the basis of their ethnic make-up) would be a good thing for London?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. JEO, the Conservatives should, and they should bang on about it on the national stage as well. Discriminating against white people would not, I venture, prove a vote-winner.
Some might wish to point out the links he has with Babar Ahmed, currently in a US prison for terrorist offences. It is possible that what he did when he argued for him not to be extradited was simply the work of a constituency MP but there have been some suggestions in the press for a while now that there was a long-standing friendship and how active he was might raise questions about his judgment. (I stress that I do not know how well-founded these are.) A run for Mayor raises a lot of things for scrutiny - as Livingstone found to his cost.
Does he also really think that being in favour of the Mansion Tax is going to help him in London?
0 -
SeanT has a new pseudonym:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/13/trolling-tories-joined-labour-party-failure-labour-hope0 -
Andy, again I assume this is existing boundaries?AndyJS said:Here's the new Labour target list:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZQUmFIb0xPaURkeGdubVBCRHJkbmc#gid=0
A 10% swing in every marginal in England and Wales would give Labour an overall majority of just 16 seats. (Assumes they don't win anything back from the SNP).MarqueeMark said:
Presumably before the boundary changes. Would be fascinating to know just how deep they would need to go into blue turf before getting their majority of ten in that case....antifrank said:The url says it all:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/labours-path-back-power-tougher-you-think
"To win a majority of ten, Labour would have to win Harlow, Shipley, Chingford & Woodford Green, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Basingstoke, Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kensington, Rugby, Leicestershire North West, Forest of Dean and Gillingham & Rainham. Of those ten, four – Chingford, Kensington, Filton & Bradley Stoke and Basingstoke – have never been won by Labour at any point in its history. All are Conservative-held."
There are a large number of seats that I automatically assume are marginals that now have Tory majorities of 8,ooo plus.
Labour, you're gonna need a new Blair. And even then, one that can overcome the voter cynicism engendered by the old Blair....0 -
Tissue_Price said:
Once they've got the nominations the PLP doesn't matter much. It becomes a battle between the membership (mostly metropolitan and trendy) and the unions (but their influence over their members may not be as pronounced this time).Daniel said:PLP is much left wing, which is a problem for any blairite (moderate) candidate.
If Umunna or Kendall can cut through to affiliated members, bypassing the union leaderships, they may win.
Last time the unions put pictures of their favoured candidate on the envelope of the voting letters.
Perhaps this time they can include little limestone figurines?
Might work?
0 -
It builds up brilliantly to the master-stroke of the penultimate sentence.antifrank said:0 -
Are you kidding? I was with you all the time. That was beautiful. Did you see the way Labour fell into our trap?peter_from_putney said:)
Ah yes, I remember now, you voted Labour,
0 -
Naughty mr Nabavi bigging up Sadiq there. The Tories preferred candidate?0
-
What, with Diane Abbott standing??taffys said:Naughty mr Nabavi bigging up Sadiq there. The Tories preferred candidate?
0 -
Does Labour really believe in racial quotas? Really?? Racial quotas like, I don't know, limiting the number of Jews able to become lawyers to no more than their proportion in the population?? Because if you believe that where there is under-representation of one minority then logically you must also believe in over-representation of others and need to take steps to address both.JEO said:
His preference for racial quotas will likely win him support in the Labour nomination, but will be a major negative in the actual election. That's assuming the Conservative candidate is confident enough to actually make an issue of them.Richard_Nabavi said:Sadiq Khan doesn't put a foot wrong in this Evening Standard interview:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/full-interview-as-he-launches-his-bid-for-city-hall-sadiq-khan-says-i-wont-be-a-zone-one-mayor-10247056.html
Quite a formidable candidate, I think.
Is that really the Labour position??
0 -
Good post-election all
1. are you telling me that the difficult-to-read new format is a feature? I thought it was a bug in the site or my computer.
2. Cons majority will be tricky - no hols or trips for MPs which will make some of them grouchy and more b**t**dwards inclined, those that are that way to start with.
3. Lab? Why are we even discussing this? Yvette is bolted on.
4. Lammy for Mayor.0 -
The only power the PLP has is in nominations. I suspect they will use that power by getting fewer nominees (in an attempt to control the result) but with them having more than the minimum number of nominations. Andy will not be happy if he can't get 75+, CU likewise. Wouldn't be shocked if there are only three successful nominations. Once you have taken 150 Labour MPs away, 100 remain for Liz, Yvette, a Left Field name and young Tristram to share out between yourselves.Tissue_Price said:
Once they've got the nominations the PLP doesn't matter much. It becomes a battle between the membership (mostly metropolitan and trendy) and the unions (but their influence over their members may not be as pronounced this time).Daniel said:PLP is much left wing, which is a problem for any blairite (moderate) candidate.
If Umunna or Kendall can cut through to affiliated members, bypassing the union leaderships, they may win.0 -
BTW, the LibDems are officially centrists:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats
"political position: centre"0 -
There's info on what the effects of the changes here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2013.html You can probably make an estimate of what the 2015 result would've been from that information.MarqueeMark said:
Presumably before the boundary changes. Would be fascinating to know just how deep they would need to go into blue turf before getting their majority of ten in that case....antifrank said:The url says it all:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/labours-path-back-power-tougher-you-think
"To win a majority of ten, Labour would have to win Harlow, Shipley, Chingford & Woodford Green, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Basingstoke, Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kensington, Rugby, Leicestershire North West, Forest of Dean and Gillingham & Rainham. Of those ten, four – Chingford, Kensington, Filton & Bradley Stoke and Basingstoke – have never been won by Labour at any point in its history. All are Conservative-held."
While I was looking for that I found this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9770710/Its-two-years-away-but-the-2015-election-is-already-lost.html Don't write Labour (or anyone) off yet - things can change a lot in a short time!0 -
-
There is more hysterical nonsense this afternoon on the Tories' proposal to repeal the Human Rights Act 1998, this time from Sir Keir Starmer MP, of whom better should be expected. The Conservatives need to start being able to respond to this sort of drivel and fast, or the 1998 Act will still be on the statute book at the end of the Parliament. The 1998 Act has sacred cow status for the metropolitan left and it is simply not good enough that the Tories have no coherent or convincing policy, let alone anyone who can advocate it in public.0
-
Surely the latter article was demonstrably stupid?Dadge said:
There's info on what the effects of the changes here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2013.html You can probably make an estimate of what the 2015 result would've been from that information.MarqueeMark said:
Presumably before the boundary changes. Would be fascinating to know just how deep they would need to go into blue turf before getting their majority of ten in that case....antifrank said:The url says it all:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/labours-path-back-power-tougher-you-think
"To win a majority of ten, Labour would have to win Harlow, Shipley, Chingford & Woodford Green, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Basingstoke, Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kensington, Rugby, Leicestershire North West, Forest of Dean and Gillingham & Rainham. Of those ten, four – Chingford, Kensington, Filton & Bradley Stoke and Basingstoke – have never been won by Labour at any point in its history. All are Conservative-held."
While I was looking for that I found this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9770710/Its-two-years-away-but-the-2015-election-is-already-lost.html Don't write Labour (or anyone) off yet - things can change a lot in a short time!0 -
That Milifandom article is an advertisement for why 16 year olds should not be able to vote.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?0 -
Bar charts... must have bar charts...
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 2m2 minutes ago
Ideological split at #GE2015 between Home Nations. #England Right, #Scotland and #Wales Left, #northernireland mixed:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5984971173809397760 -
Yes, they do. And they launched it as an appeal to "black and minority ethnic" voters, in a votes for preferential treatment deal:Cyclefree said:
Does Labour really believe in racial quotas? Really?? Racial quotas like, I don't know, limiting the number of Jews able to become lawyers to no more than their proportion in the population?? Because if you believe that where there is under-representation of one minority then logically you must also believe in over-representation of others and need to take steps to address both.JEO said:
His preference for racial quotas will likely win him support in the Labour nomination, but will be a major negative in the actual election. That's assuming the Conservative candidate is confident enough to actually make an issue of them.Richard_Nabavi said:Sadiq Khan doesn't put a foot wrong in this Evening Standard interview:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/full-interview-as-he-launches-his-bid-for-city-hall-sadiq-khan-says-i-wont-be-a-zone-one-mayor-10247056.html
Quite a formidable candidate, I think.
Is that really the Labour position??
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/labour-ethnic-minority-voters-manifesto-top-jobs-quotas-hate-crime-reforms
I really don't like the racialisation of society we are going down. Different TV channels for different ethnic groups. Different election debates for different ethnic groups. Different election manifestos for different ethnic groups. I saw in one London local newspaper that the new MP for Hampstead and Kilburn, was mobbed entirely by members of her ethnic group when she won. Is this really how we want British society to be in future?0 -
Orkney + Shetland has to be a good shout...Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?0 -
Fourth...Lennon said:
Orkney + Shetland has to be a good shout...Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?0 -
CeredigionTissue_Price said:
Fourth...Lennon said:
Orkney + Shetland has to be a good shout...Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?0 -
E Dunbartonshire ?Tissue_Price said:
Fourth...Lennon said:
Orkney + Shetland has to be a good shout...Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?0 -
Is the answer to the bonus point! But it's now 6th.Financier said:
CeredigionTissue_Price said:
Fourth...Lennon said:
Orkney + Shetland has to be a good shout...Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?0 -
From the comments:antifrank said:
"I am doing something positive, voting for Chuka, I was also very encouraged by Charlotte Church and Russell Brand."0 -
Neither do I. If this is really the route Labour is taking it is another reason for not voting for them.JEO said:
Yes, they do. And they launched it as an appeal to "black and minority ethnic" voters, in a votes for preferential treatment deal:Cyclefree said:
Does Labour really believe in racial quotas? Really?? Racial quotas like, I don't know, limiting the number of Jews able to become lawyers to no more than their proportion in the population?? Because if you believe that where there is under-representation of one minority then logically you must also believe in over-representation of others and need to take steps to address both.JEO said:
His preference for racial quotas will likely win him support in the Labour nomination, but will be a major negative in the actual election. That's assuming the Conservative candidate is confident enough to actually make an issue of them.Richard_Nabavi said:Sadiq Khan doesn't put a foot wrong in this Evening Standard interview:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/full-interview-as-he-launches-his-bid-for-city-hall-sadiq-khan-says-i-wont-be-a-zone-one-mayor-10247056.html
Quite a formidable candidate, I think.
Is that really the Labour position??
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/labour-ethnic-minority-voters-manifesto-top-jobs-quotas-hate-crime-reforms
I really don't like the racialisation of society we are going down. Different TV channels for different ethnic groups. Different election debates for different ethnic groups. Different election manifestos for different ethnic groups. I saw in one London local newspaper that the new MP for Hampstead and Kilburn, was mobbed entirely by members of her ethnic group when she won. Is this really how we want British society to be in future?
But if they really believe for preferential treatment for black voters, say, then they must also mean that they want less preferential treatment for Jews, who are often hugely over-represented in certain professions (not, to be clear, that I think this a bad thing) or other similarly over-represented groups.
So are they going to place a limit on how many Jewish students are allowed to study law at university?
There must be a Labour supporter still on here. Perhaps they could comment.
As for Tulip Siddiq, I don't know how she was mobbed - probably by members of her family. There are not many Bengalis living in Hampstead and Kilburn.
0 -
Westmorland & Lonsdale (before) and Gordon (after).Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?0 -
As I understand it the union members who get a vote in the ballot this time will get their ballot papers directly from the Labour Party, so there's no chance of a Union leadership recommendation being sent out with the ballot paper.Tissue_Price said:
Once they've got the nominations the PLP doesn't matter much. It becomes a battle between the membership (mostly metropolitan and trendy) and the unions (but their influence over their members may not be as pronounced this time).Daniel said:PLP is much left wing, which is a problem for any blairite (moderate) candidate.
If Umunna or Kendall can cut through to affiliated members, bypassing the union leaderships, they may win.
However, if only 5% of the affiliated Union membership take part in the leadership election, that still equates to [I think] 200,000 votes, which is a bit more than the total current membership of the Labour party. These votes are crucial. As they will be only from the small percentage of affiliated Union members who can be bothered to take part, but for some reason not have personal membership of the Labour party, there has to be a strong probability that they will be generally more leftwing than (a) the Labour party membership itself and (b) the non-participating majority of the Union membership.
That's not ideal for the Blairite candidates.0 -
One of the Highland seats then - Ross, Skye, et al?Tissue_Price said:
Fourth...Lennon said:
Orkney + Shetland has to be a good shout...Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?0 -
I particularly liked this line -Life_ina_market_town said:There is more hysterical nonsense this afternoon on the Tories' proposal to repeal the Human Rights Act 1998, this time from Sir Keir Starmer MP, of whom better should be expected. The Conservatives need to start being able to respond to this sort of drivel and fast, or the 1998 Act will still be on the statute book at the end of the Parliament. The 1998 Act has sacred cow status for the metropolitan left and it is simply not good enough that the Tories have no coherent or convincing policy, let alone anyone who can advocate it in public.
"By stark contrast, the HRA has heralded a new approach to the protection of the most vulnerable in our society, including child victims of trafficking, women subject to domestic and sexual violence, those with disabilities and victims of crime. After many years of struggling to be heard, these individuals now have not only a voice, but a right to be protected."
Written by the man who in his last year as head of the CPS admitted that they way they had dealt with child abuse, child grooming cases - after the Rochdale prosecution in 2012 - was utterly wanting.
Yeah: the HRA really helped those girls.
It's not laws that are lacking; it's the will and commitment to enforce the laws we do have. And the failure to do that has nothing to do with the HRA.
What I find infuriating about arguments like this is the idea that we in Britain did not have any human rights until Labour came along to give them to us. It's utter bilge.
0 -
Is correct - 11.1%Lennon said:
One of the Highland seats then - Ross, Skye, et al?Tissue_Price said:
Fourth...Lennon said:
Orkney + Shetland has to be a good shout...Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?
Then Inverness etc., Caithness etc, O&S, Gordon, Ceredigion, Dunbartonshire E.
First English seat on the list is Tim Farron's.0 -
Yes I'm getting Cooper & Burnham onside, and laying Chuka.OblitusSumMe said:
As I understand it the union members who get a vote in the ballot this time will get their ballot papers directly from the Labour Party, so there's no chance of a Union leadership recommendation being sent out with the ballot paper.Tissue_Price said:
Once they've got the nominations the PLP doesn't matter much. It becomes a battle between the membership (mostly metropolitan and trendy) and the unions (but their influence over their members may not be as pronounced this time).Daniel said:PLP is much left wing, which is a problem for any blairite (moderate) candidate.
If Umunna or Kendall can cut through to affiliated members, bypassing the union leaderships, they may win.
However, if only 5% of the affiliated Union membership take part in the leadership election, that still equates to [I think] 200,000 votes, which is a bit more than the total current membership of the Labour party. These votes are crucial. As they will be only from the small percentage of affiliated Union members who can be bothered to take part, but for some reason not have personal membership of the Labour party, there has to be a strong probability that they will be generally more leftwing than (a) the Labour party membership itself and (b) the non-participating majority of the Union membership.
That's not ideal for the Blairite candidates.0 -
Much better now that the fear factor is gone. But as I have said often before I don't necessarily think that is a good thing for either UKIP or BOO in the long run.MarkHopkins said:Richard_Tyndall said:
Its going to turn out to be something incredibly minor that will have had no bearing on the result I reckon. It is just that the Police have to be seen to be scrupulously investigating this or we will have never ending conspiracy theories.DecrepitJohnL said:
Let's hope there is a re-run, if only to boost the betting and popcorn industries.Morris_Dancer said:Fraud probe in Thanet South:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32725167
If they did have to re-run the election - do you think Farage would have a better or worse chance than before?0 -
Just looking at Ceredigion - are there any other seats (NI+Speaker excluded) where Labour came 5th (or worse...)?Tissue_Price said:
Is correct - 11.1%Lennon said:
One of the Highland seats then - Ross, Skye, et al?Tissue_Price said:
Fourth...Lennon said:
Orkney + Shetland has to be a good shout...Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?
Then Inverness etc., Caithness etc, O&S, Gordon, Ceredigion, Dunbartonshire E.
First English seat on the list is Tim Farron's.
0 -
You would think so, but it depends on whether the voters think they are being asked frivolously to vote again.Lennon said:
Massively better - all those that voted Tory 'to stop the SNP' (however irrational that may be) could revert to UKIP in what is effectively a by-election knowing that Cameron would keep his majority so it would be a 'safe' UKIP vote.MarkHopkins said:If they did have to re-run the election - do you think Farage would have a better or worse chance than before?
If they felt that it was a case of sour grapes, then they might decide to punish UKIP for not accepting the original result.0 -
Orkney & Shetland?Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?0 -
@BBCNewsnight: Labour's biggest problem? Fighting to remain relevant, says @bbclaurak http://t.co/YUIHrGNOMC0
-
Somerton and Frome is the only other one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somerton_and_Frome_(UK_Parliament_constituency)Lennon said:Just looking at Ceredigion - are there any other seats (NI+Speaker excluded) where Labour came 5th (or worse...)?
0 -
Ross Skye etc., previously Ceredigion.rcs1000 said:
Orkney & Shetland?Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?0 -
Existing boundaries, yes.MarqueeMark said:
Andy, again I assume this is existing boundaries?AndyJS said:Here's the new Labour target list:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZQUmFIb0xPaURkeGdubVBCRHJkbmc#gid=0
A 10% swing in every marginal in England and Wales would give Labour an overall majority of just 16 seats. (Assumes they don't win anything back from the SNP).MarqueeMark said:
Presumably before the boundary changes. Would be fascinating to know just how deep they would need to go into blue turf before getting their majority of ten in that case....antifrank said:The url says it all:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/labours-path-back-power-tougher-you-think
"To win a majority of ten, Labour would have to win Harlow, Shipley, Chingford & Woodford Green, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Basingstoke, Bexleyheath & Crayford, Kensington, Rugby, Leicestershire North West, Forest of Dean and Gillingham & Rainham. Of those ten, four – Chingford, Kensington, Filton & Bradley Stoke and Basingstoke – have never been won by Labour at any point in its history. All are Conservative-held."
There are a large number of seats that I automatically assume are marginals that now have Tory majorities of 8,ooo plus.
Labour, you're gonna need a new Blair. And even then, one that can overcome the voter cynicism engendered by the old Blair....0 -
Is the fraud probe in Thanet to do with someone resigning and then unresigning?
0 -
That can't be serious....Sunil_Prasannan said:twitter.com/Conorpope/status/598490199958630402
In more important news, I hear that the search for the EdStone is progressing well....0 -
The highest two-party shares were mostly in London, as you'd expect, with the highest being Harrow East @ 91%.0
-
It's interesting how a university town like Canterbury is now on the Labour target list whereas before it was way behind former marginals like NE Somerset, Tamworth, Burton, Harlow, etc. Just having a major educational centre in the constituency is making the constituency easier for Labour to win compared to suburban seats without one.0
-
What are the chances of
a) Ed Balls in a Denis Thatcher role
or
b) Ed M resigning around Crristmas and Balls standing in his place?0 -
Pure guess but Orkney & Shetland, both times?Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?
EDIT: Ignore, just seen I'm miles off the pace...0 -
@patrickwintour: Prince Charles letters are now available on the cabinet office website0
-
It's an interesting electoral fact IMO.Bond_James_Bond said:
So what?AndyJS said:The last time the Tories won an overall majority in 1992, 32.6% of the electorate voted for them (41.9% on a 77.7% turnout). This time 24.4% did so (36.9% on a 66.1% turnout).
0 -
I thought 2-5 looked a touch long in Somerton...Tissue_Price said:
Somerton and Frome is the only other one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somerton_and_Frome_(UK_Parliament_constituency)Lennon said:Just looking at Ceredigion - are there any other seats (NI+Speaker excluded) where Labour came 5th (or worse...)?
0 -
Prepare for minutiae to be discussed at great length....Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: Prince Charles letters are now available on the cabinet office website
0 -
Arf - ideed, the "award winning screen writer for the BBC" in his bio was the give away.antifrank said: 0 -
@Tissue_Price and/or @AndyJS - Do either of you have a comprehensive results Spreadsheet that you could share? Appreciate that with boundary changes it's less useful for next time than it might but still good data if possible. Cheers.0
-
wow - where do I sign???Sunil_Prasannan said: 0 -
First couple of Charles exchanges I've skimmed look predictably dull and unexciting, other than to show the Prince as being a reasonable and sensible sort of chap, advocating the cause of the underdog.
Wonder if Charles will emerge from this with his standing considerably enhanced, being on the side of the ordinary man against the might of an over-regulating State, and not the ranting nutter The Guardian is hoping to identify?0 -
OblitusSumMe said:
You would think so, but it depends on whether the voters think they are being asked frivolously to vote again.Lennon said:
Massively better - all those that voted Tory 'to stop the SNP' (however irrational that may be) could revert to UKIP in what is effectively a by-election knowing that Cameron would keep his majority so it would be a 'safe' UKIP vote.MarkHopkins said:If they did have to re-run the election - do you think Farage would have a better or worse chance than before?
If they felt that it was a case of sour grapes, then they might decide to punish UKIP for not accepting the original result.
Winchester 1997 Election re-run +20% swing to the original winning candidate.OblitusSumMe said:
You would think so, but it depends on whether the voters think they are being asked frivolously to vote again.Lennon said:
Massively better - all those that voted Tory 'to stop the SNP' (however irrational that may be) could revert to UKIP in what is effectively a by-election knowing that Cameron would keep his majority so it would be a 'safe' UKIP vote.MarkHopkins said:If they did have to re-run the election - do you think Farage would have a better or worse chance than before?
If they felt that it was a case of sour grapes, then they might decide to punish UKIP for not accepting the original result.0 -
That's the impression I got, but there could be some gems hidden away in all the text. Still, while I understand why the Guardian have done it, this does remind me a bit of their effort to send letters to swing voters in Ohio.Bob__Sykes said:First couple of Charles exchanges I've skimmed look predictably dull and unexciting, other than to show the Prince as being a reasonable and sensible sort of chap, advocating the cause of the underdog.
Wonder if Charles will emerge from this with his standing considerably enhanced, being on the side of the ordinary man against the might of an over-regulating State, and not the ranting nutter The Guardian is hoping to identify?0 -
This is basically what I've gleaned. In a few cases, as you say, he is offering to help fund/find help for some decent causes.Bob__Sykes said:First couple of Charles exchanges I've skimmed look predictably dull and unexciting, other than to show the Prince as being a reasonable and sensible sort of chap, advocating the cause of the underdog.
Wonder if Charles will emerge from this with his standing considerably enhanced, being on the side of the ordinary man against the might of an over-regulating State, and not the ranting nutter The Guardian is hoping to identify?0 -
Labour leadership timetable:
twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/598506404874424320/photo/1
0 -
I was just looking at: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.htmlLennon said:@Tissue_Price and/or @AndyJS - Do either of you have a comprehensive results Spreadsheet that you could share? Appreciate that with boundary changes it's less useful for next time than it might but still good data if possible. Cheers.
0 -
Hardly miles off!Bob__Sykes said:
Pure guess but Orkney & Shetland, both times?Tissue_Price said:Quiz fun. Which seat has the lowest combined Con + Lab % of the vote (excl. NI & Buckingham)?
Bonus point - which seat was it before the election?
EDIT: Ignore, just seen I'm miles off the pace...0 -
Guardian just on a fishing expedition.Bob__Sykes said:First couple of Charles exchanges I've skimmed look predictably dull and unexciting, other than to show the Prince as being a reasonable and sensible sort of chap, advocating the cause of the underdog.
Wonder if Charles will emerge from this with his standing considerably enhanced, being on the side of the ordinary man against the might of an over-regulating State, and not the ranting nutter The Guardian is hoping to identify?0 -
Is Diane Abbott running? I'd love to have her as Labour Leader.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/13/ed-miliband-leftwing-labour-not-paying-attention0 -
Cost the taxpayer £500k.Slackbladder said:
Guardian just on a fishing expedition.Bob__Sykes said:First couple of Charles exchanges I've skimmed look predictably dull and unexciting, other than to show the Prince as being a reasonable and sensible sort of chap, advocating the cause of the underdog.
Wonder if Charles will emerge from this with his standing considerably enhanced, being on the side of the ordinary man against the might of an over-regulating State, and not the ranting nutter The Guardian is hoping to identify?0 -
There's quite a lot of this maudlin drivel at the Graun. Why don't they just grow up? It's called democracy.SimonStClare said:
Arf - ideed, the "award winning screen writer for the BBC" in his bio was the give away.antifrank said:
0 -
The guardian have a BREAKING NEWS: MAN WRITES LETTERS0
-
Prince Charles also wrote to ministers:
Inviting them to attend a conference on architecture to give them a perspective on “vital aspects” of urban design.
Raising concerns over the “fate of sea birds” and “illegal fishing
Addressing problems in schools in South Gloucestershire in relation to diets of pupils
To arrange meetings with charity representatives, including In Kind Direct, which redistribute products from companies to charities
Rebuilding historic buildings in Northern Ireland
OMG SCANDAL!!!!!
0 -
Just put the LAB leadership time-table in the header
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/5985080671652167680 -
Having a read of the letters, Charles looks a decent chap. Can't see why the Guardian pushed to publish them0
