politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And let’s not forget the pollsters and the polls
Comments
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This may turn out to have been a good election to lose. Duncan Weldon mentioned on Newsnight that many of leading lights in the city are more worried about the UK's current account deficit than the budget deficit. How much longer can this recovery be sustained? The Tories may have felt they had a terrible inheritance in 2010 but politically it was easy to blame Labour. The rebalancing of the economy since the crash has been a complete failure. It's hard to find another high income country in which short termism rules so much. When the next crash comes it's likely to be painful. Hardly a surprise given we aren't putting any savings aside.0
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First official post election missive from UKIP to its members
A HUGE STEP FORWARD ON OUR GREAT JOURNEY
I am writing to thank you for the tremendous success you have delivered for UKIP in the 2015 General Election.
In the maelstrom of an election no-one predicted, with an extraordinary set of results for the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal-Democrats and SNP, UKIP has emerged as the third largest party in the country.
With our poll rating stubbornly sticking at 13-14% in recent weeks, we have returned a 13% result – despite the ‘SNP squeeze’ which saw the Conservatives’ “The Scottish Are Coming!” strategy transform the election in the last 48 hours.
With almost 4 million votes, we have one-third of the votes of the Conservatives, and 40% of those amassed by Labour. We have more than two-and-a-half times the votes of the SNP and more than three times those of the Greens. We have 21 times the votes of the DUP, who have eight seats in Parliament.
Across large swathes of the country, especially in the North of England, UKIP is now in second place, the challenger in 120 seats.
As our Leader, Nigel Farage has led us to this height with unique energy, character and verve. The barriers of the FPTP electoral system denied him, as so many others, his personal reward.
A strong team has been forged in the fire of this election. We build from today, towards 2020.
Thank you for your back-breaking work, your generous funding, your patience in adversity and your courage in the field, your enthusiasm and your camaraderie, your faith in the cause and your Belief in Britain.
Onward!
Steve Crowther,
Party Chairman
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John Rentoul re-tweets:
I don't know about the SNP locking us out of No.10.
Left the front door key by the mat by the looks of it.0 -
Jack
A high B+. Though you didn't get the detail right you got the important question right which almost everyone else got wrong. That the Tories were going to win the election0 -
Not judging, but might limit their impact. I wonder if like other minor parties, they might bring MEPs/MSPs/AMs to the fore of the party. Or perhaps find funding for people like Jo Swinson to stay in full time politics (say as LD President).MaxPB said:
Given that there are only 8 of them I think we can give them a pass.Jonathan said:Interesting article about female MPs
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32601280
Labour are approaching 50:50 whereas the LDs now do not have a single woman in parliament.0 -
doing my betting tally up and the blinking labrokes site is crashing all the time!
also on betfair trying to check the fixed odds bets which included the SNP/Lord A leak bet which was such a bonus but i can't find how to get the bet details, just the money credit is shown,np p&L and a bet id
anyone help?0 -
Interest Rates have to go up as some point..when they do there is going to be almighty screaming from all those people who are over-leveraged after becoming accustomed to basically free money.FrankBooth said:This may turn out to have been a good election to lose. Duncan Weldon mentioned on Newsnight that many of leading lights in the city are more worried about the UK's current account deficit than the budget deficit. How much longer can this recovery be sustained? The Tories may have felt they had a terrible inheritance in 2010 but politically it was easy to blame Labour. The rebalancing of the economy since the crash has been a complete failure. It's hard to find another high income country in which short termism rules so much. When the next crash comes it's likely to be painful. Hardly a surprise given we aren't putting any savings aside.
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Didn't understand why you adjusted the Nick Palmer seat, locally the Tories were always confident, above other East Midlands marginals, the quality of the Consevative candidate a massive factor in his demise.JackW said:For the benefit of PBers who haven't the time to trawl the threads :
FPT :
I'll try and rationalize these momentous events
ARSE & the "JackW Dozen"
From the moment Ed was elected as LotO it was patently clear that EWNBPM was the order of the day. Ed never had the look, almost literally, of a Prime Minister in waiting and the voters will never elect an individual who cannot appear to command the duties of the Queen's First Minister.
The economic, social and demographic factors fell into place in my ARSE with ease. Importantly unemployment and growth both fell within a whisker of my projections as did most of the other element central to the forecast.
PBers will recall I repeatedly advised that my ARSE was not a nowcast but forecast for 7th May but clearly as the day loomed the polls would play a more important part. Despite my ARSE filter allowing for shy Tories and differential turnout that regularly topped the Conservatives above 300 the failure of the polls, even ICM, notched down the blue seats and overestimated the yellow peril. Essentially the ARSE filter required another turn.
The same is true in Scotland where my ARSE expected a higher differential turnout for the SNP but clearly by not enough.
In late 2013 I started, some said very unwisely, to choose 13 difficult seats that I believed would shape the contest and they certainly did.
Of those "JackW Dozen" 10 were hits but Nick Palmer, and losses in Cambridge (very unexpected) and Cornwall North (less so) bucked the trend.
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Overall a great effort, an oasis of reality in a see of doom.
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There is undoubtedly hard work to be done but the only people who ever argue that it was a good election to lose are those that did.FrankBooth said:This may turn out to have been a good election to lose. Duncan Weldon mentioned on Newsnight that many of leading lights in the city are more worried about the UK's current account deficit than the budget deficit. How much longer can this recovery be sustained? The Tories may have felt they had a terrible inheritance in 2010 but politically it was easy to blame Labour. The rebalancing of the economy since the crash has been a complete failure. It's hard to find another high income country in which short termism rules so much. When the next crash comes it's likely to be painful. Hardly a surprise given we aren't putting any savings aside.
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Absolute torture? Lets us look at his position: five years on £60+ grand a year, plus a zonking expense account, plenty of free foreign travel if he wants it (MPs fact finding trips etc)., no set hours of work, no performance criteria but a warm room in central London provided plus subsidised bars and restaurants. Dreadful torture, I am surprised it has not been outlawed by international convention.MP_SE said:
It will be five years of torture. Unable to resign as the seat will be lost to Labour and forced to struggle on as a party a shadow of its former self.FrancisUrquhart said:On a serious note, I really hope Nick Clegg can get over last night as a person. He looked a totally broken man.
Torture. my arse.0 -
Quite an important full stop.HurstLlama said:
Absolute torture? Lets us look at his position: five years on £60+ grand a year, plus a zonking expense account, plenty of free foreign travel if he wants it (MPs fact finding trips etc)., no set hours of work, no performance criteria but a warm room in central London provided plus subsidised bars and restaurants. Dreadful torture, I am surprised it has not been outlawed by international convention.MP_SE said:
It will be five years of torture. Unable to resign as the seat will be lost to Labour and forced to struggle on as a party a shadow of its former self.FrancisUrquhart said:On a serious note, I really hope Nick Clegg can get over last night as a person. He looked a totally broken man.
Torture. my arse.
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Thanks all for a super range of coverage; this is a truly superb website.
I was pleased with my predictions in so far as I got the Conservatives over 300, but I downgraded by initial prediction from 319 to 304 as I wobbled looking at the polls. I did predict 37 vs 31 in the percentages which was not far off.
JackW excellent work as always!
As a Conservative supporter it feels a little strange. In my adult life I have never known a Conservative majority government!0 -
That guest list says it all.FrancisUrquhart said:
The past hour guests have been Jacqui Smith, Charles Clarke and Hunt.MarqueeMark said:FFS, now the BBC have Hunt wittering on about Labour. Where are the gloating Tories, Beeb, rubbing Labour's nose in the shit?
Has a Tory MP been in BBC studio since Gove in the first few minutes of the coverage at 10pm? I am presuming they aren't putting people up, as Shapps have been on Sky in the past hour or so..
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CarlottaVance said:
The Labour line seems to be 'This is not a bad day for Labour, but a bad day for Britain' - which is pretty insulting to 'Britain'!antifrank said:Damian McBride is doing his best on twitter to try to persuade his followers that David Cameron being re-elected is a disaster for David Cameron.
Labour collapsed in Scotland, not in England. Its vote went up, but became a lot less efficient - except in all the seats it won from the LibDems.rcs1000 said:
Yes: Labour -> UKIP, LibDem -> Con, Lab ->SNP are the three monumental shift of the evening.JEO said:
If the electoral system is bust, the idea of a left-right political spectrum is broken beyond repair. Your argument does not tally with the clear evidence of large numbers of Labour voters going straight to UKIP. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats collapsed due to the populist rise of UKIP, while we fended it off thanks to Lyndon Crosby and his strengthening of the right flank with things like English votes for English laws.rcs1000 said:I have a theory:
The Conservatives won because they moved to the centre, and they "stole" right wing Liberal Democrat votes. This wasn't (much) about Red Liberals going home, it was because the rise of UKIP and the coalition with the LibDems detoxified the Conservative brand for a lot of centre right voters.
If the LibDems are to survive - and I think it's too early to tell if they will - then they need either the Conservatives to veer right under Cameron, or the Labour Party to veer left under A N Other. Otherwise, UKIP is right, Conservatives are centre right, Labour is centre left, and the SNP/Greens are left. And centre right is the biggest block, and is owned almost entirely now by the Conservatives.
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Lets also not forgot the Great British public has enabled George Galloway to spend more time to do tv shows...well done the voters of Bradford West.0
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Many thought Cameron weak though. The guy who couldn't get a majority against Gordon Brown. Pfft. Loser.Richard_Tyndall said:
I can't see many UKIPpers taking up such an offer. They left because of Cameron and I can't see their view of him changing at least until after any EU referendum. If he does as we expect and fudges the whole thing to ensure an IN win then they would have been fooled twice.Charles said:
If I was Cameron, I'd stand up and publicly invite Carswell back. Offer no preferment or inducement, but no recriminations either - and extend the offer to anyone who chose to vote UKIP yesterday as well. You're welcome back, any time.StarzandStrypz said:Many are celebrating UKIP being kept to a single seat even as third-largest vote getters in the UK, but they may be around a very long time continuing to siphon off protest votes mainly from the Tories, harming them indefinitely. A more sure way to kill them off as a serious political force would seem to be sending dozens of them to Westminster and cajoling them into a coalition with the Tories.
Well, they are going to have to reappraise the guy now.0 -
Might have to reappraise Gordon Brown (and the 2010 campaign) too.MarqueeMark said:
Many thought Cameron weak though. The guy who couldn't get a majority against Gordon Brown. Pfft. Loser.Richard_Tyndall said:
I can't see many UKIPpers taking up such an offer. They left because of Cameron and I can't see their view of him changing at least until after any EU referendum. If he does as we expect and fudges the whole thing to ensure an IN win then they would have been fooled twice.Charles said:
If I was Cameron, I'd stand up and publicly invite Carswell back. Offer no preferment or inducement, but no recriminations either - and extend the offer to anyone who chose to vote UKIP yesterday as well. You're welcome back, any time.StarzandStrypz said:Many are celebrating UKIP being kept to a single seat even as third-largest vote getters in the UK, but they may be around a very long time continuing to siphon off protest votes mainly from the Tories, harming them indefinitely. A more sure way to kill them off as a serious political force would seem to be sending dozens of them to Westminster and cajoling them into a coalition with the Tories.
Well, they are going to have to reappraise the guy now.0 -
I have a feeling many former Lib Dem voters decided to plump for the Tories or Ukip rather than Labour.
Many of the results I saw had the Lib Dems falling by double-digit amounts but Labour were picking up only a sliver in most seats.0 -
Seriously? Hah!FrancisUrquhart said:So are we all ready for YouGov at 10.30....innocent face....
Can't actually believe we have a Tory majority.....0 -
Burnham would fare worse than Miliband.JEO said:
Does that mean Andy Burnham too?macisback said:
Scousers are a total negative outside Merseyside.SunnyJim said:If Nuttall becomes UKIP leader he will be very attractive (as a scouser) to voters in the north.
If Tories can learn to vote tactically where UKIP are hitting strong 2nds behind the reds then Labour could have problems in 2020 in the midlands/north.0 -
They didn't think him weak they thought him dishonest and believed it was that which cost him a majority. I really don't see many UKIP members suddenly deciding that he is worthy of support just because he won.MarqueeMark said:
Many thought Cameron weak though. The guy who couldn't get a majority against Gordon Brown. Pfft. Loser.Richard_Tyndall said:
I can't see many UKIPpers taking up such an offer. They left because of Cameron and I can't see their view of him changing at least until after any EU referendum. If he does as we expect and fudges the whole thing to ensure an IN win then they would have been fooled twice.Charles said:
If I was Cameron, I'd stand up and publicly invite Carswell back. Offer no preferment or inducement, but no recriminations either - and extend the offer to anyone who chose to vote UKIP yesterday as well. You're welcome back, any time.StarzandStrypz said:Many are celebrating UKIP being kept to a single seat even as third-largest vote getters in the UK, but they may be around a very long time continuing to siphon off protest votes mainly from the Tories, harming them indefinitely. A more sure way to kill them off as a serious political force would seem to be sending dozens of them to Westminster and cajoling them into a coalition with the Tories.
Well, they are going to have to reappraise the guy now.0 -
Fortunate to win a Lib dem seats bet on the upside I'll agree!!! I've got it was on 30/12/14.isam said:
Lib Dems more than UKIP*4.. how the hell did I manage to lose on that?!Scrapheap_as_was said:ISAM - betting check
Hi - back in now. I make it £210 please.
11/10 £100 TPD to lose in Rochester
Evens £50 Lib Dems more than UKIP x4
Evens £50 Farage > Tories 6%
Don't think there was anything else.
I didnt have that one down but I'll believe you, send your details and I will send it over
If any comfort, I'm now only realising how much I'd staked against Farage and TPD on betfair, and hills since the TPD won last year.... 7/4 & 11/4 it seems...
Dunno about Lads as my account log in doesn't seem to be working currently?
I also laid Ed as PM in late April with £500 on it... don't remember that either...
Beginning to regret my 10% profit share I volunteered to donate to PB!!! Need the button up sometime this weekend please?0 -
I doubt there is one...just a joke on my part.RobD said:
Seriously? Hah!FrancisUrquhart said:So are we all ready for YouGov at 10.30....innocent face....
Can't actually believe we have a Tory majority.....0 -
Interesting thing I noticed (and confirmed in other seats) in a SE constituency. The postal scores markedly different to final result. IMO it was a change on the day.0
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Jus heard Cameron outside Number 10:
"I have always believed in governing with Respect."
Shame Galloway lost then.....!0 -
Labour's line on a Conservative majority being bad for Britain isn't so ridiculous if you're of the thought that the most poorest and vulnerable people will probably end up suffering thanks to those 12bn welfare cuts. Obviously, I hope that isn't the case.
I also don't know why some are talking as if Cameron has a 100 majority - he doesn't; the opposition is composed of more than just Labour MPs. I also don't know why every single potential Lab leadership candidate is being written off; even Jarvis FFS. I can understand criticism of Cooper, Umunna, and Burnham but Jarvis - he's the kind of unknown quantity that Labour needs right now.
So, to brace ourselves for the next five years. Because it looks pretty scary.0 -
Red Libs went from LD to Labour, but WWC went from Labour to Ukip. So it's hard to disambiguate.Millsy said:I have a feeling many former Lib Dem voters decided to plump for the Tories or Ukip rather than Labour.
Many of the results I saw had the Lib Dems falling by double-digit amounts but Labour were picking up only a sliver in most seats.
They won a referendum, by a reasonable margin, that was literally unthinkable to lose about eleven months ago. Is that really positive points?SeanT said:We have to consider the strange, and, for some, appalling proposition that Cameron and Osborne are political geniuses, and not just "lucky".
They won a Scottish referendum against the wiliest operator in the UK - Alex Salmond. They won it in such a way that destroyed Labour north of the Border, while keeping Scotland in GB.
They then went on to do something which is virtually unprecedented - not only increase their vote from their first winning election, but go from minority to majority government.
And they did this even when the Right is split, as never before.
Have we all underrated them? Because they look like posh thickos? If they really are smart as I'm suggesting, they will win the EU vote, effect boundary changes, give Scotland and Wales autonomy (terminally annihilating Labour), and guarantee Tory rule for the next 500 years.0 -
No reappraisal required. 2010 Brown brings Mandelson on board; 2015 Miliband doesn't. Also, Brown knew the Scottish political scene as it then was inside out.Jonathan said:
Might have to reappraise Gordon Brown (and the 2010 campaign) too.MarqueeMark said:
Many thought Cameron weak though. The guy who couldn't get a majority against Gordon Brown. Pfft. Loser.Richard_Tyndall said:
I can't see many UKIPpers taking up such an offer. They left because of Cameron and I can't see their view of him changing at least until after any EU referendum. If he does as we expect and fudges the whole thing to ensure an IN win then they would have been fooled twice.Charles said:
If I was Cameron, I'd stand up and publicly invite Carswell back. Offer no preferment or inducement, but no recriminations either - and extend the offer to anyone who chose to vote UKIP yesterday as well. You're welcome back, any time.StarzandStrypz said:Many are celebrating UKIP being kept to a single seat even as third-largest vote getters in the UK, but they may be around a very long time continuing to siphon off protest votes mainly from the Tories, harming them indefinitely. A more sure way to kill them off as a serious political force would seem to be sending dozens of them to Westminster and cajoling them into a coalition with the Tories.
Well, they are going to have to reappraise the guy now.
I think most people regard Labour's 2010 campaign as quite decent, particularly if you look at the long game from late 2009 onwards.0 -
That'll never happen. It's PB.Jonathan said:
Might have to reappraise Gordon Brown (and the 2010 campaign) too.MarqueeMark said:
Many thought Cameron weak though. The guy who couldn't get a majority against Gordon Brown. Pfft. Loser.Richard_Tyndall said:
I can't see many UKIPpers taking up such an offer. They left because of Cameron and I can't see their view of him changing at least until after any EU referendum. If he does as we expect and fudges the whole thing to ensure an IN win then they would have been fooled twice.Charles said:
If I was Cameron, I'd stand up and publicly invite Carswell back. Offer no preferment or inducement, but no recriminations either - and extend the offer to anyone who chose to vote UKIP yesterday as well. You're welcome back, any time.StarzandStrypz said:Many are celebrating UKIP being kept to a single seat even as third-largest vote getters in the UK, but they may be around a very long time continuing to siphon off protest votes mainly from the Tories, harming them indefinitely. A more sure way to kill them off as a serious political force would seem to be sending dozens of them to Westminster and cajoling them into a coalition with the Tories.
Well, they are going to have to reappraise the guy now.
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What I can't believe is that SeanT is accrediting David Cameron and George Osborne for winning IndyRef. That referendum was won in spite of Conservatives, not because of them.EPG said:
Red Libs went from LD to Labour, but WWC went from Labour to Ukip. So it's hard to disambiguate.Millsy said:I have a feeling many former Lib Dem voters decided to plump for the Tories or Ukip rather than Labour.
Many of the results I saw had the Lib Dems falling by double-digit amounts but Labour were picking up only a sliver in most seats.
They won a referendum, by a reasonable margin, that was literally unthinkable to lose about eleven months ago. Is that really positive points?SeanT said:We have to consider the strange, and, for some, appalling proposition that Cameron and Osborne are political geniuses, and not just "lucky".
They won a Scottish referendum against the wiliest operator in the UK - Alex Salmond. They won it in such a way that destroyed Labour north of the Border, while keeping Scotland in GB.
They then went on to do something which is virtually unprecedented - not only increase their vote from their first winning election, but go from minority to majority government.
And they did this even when the Right is split, as never before.
Have we all underrated them? Because they look like posh thickos? If they really are smart as I'm suggesting, they will win the EU vote, effect boundary changes, give Scotland and Wales autonomy (terminally annihilating Labour), and guarantee Tory rule for the next 500 years.0 -
A bit like he said I will save every SLAB seat when he was appointed, of all the leaders surely he's the worst performer. Anyway it's one of Labours biggest problems is that they seem to struggle with dumping poorly performing leaders.Carnyx said:
Hmm, Mr Murphy is reportedly expressing the belief that he will lead SLAB to Holyrood victory next year.calum said:A good piece by Alex Massie:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/today-britain-has-changed-changed-utterly-a-terrible-beauty-is-born/
In terms of the SNP, I think there will be a second membership surge as many of the 50% who voted SNP seek to become more politically engaged. As there is now no risk of the SNP being seen as a wrecking ball in Westminster, the SNP will effectively be starting on the Holyrood 2016 election preparations, without the worry of trying to prop up Labour.
I think SLAB and SLID, have joined SCUP as zombie parties with core votes below the level required for the FPTP system. I think they will struggle to secure Holyrood constituency seats, so will be looking to the regional list as the main source of seats, unfortunately they will be at risk of being caught in a pincer movement by the SNP, Greens and bizarrely UKIP.
This has also appeared -
http://www.thenational.scot/politics/jim-murphy-scottish-labour-still-needs-me.2781
"Murphy said it would be wrong for him to resign as he had not yet had enough time to transform the party. However, if the results of last night show anything, it is that Murphy has undoubtedly transformed the party."
As far as I can tell the appointments of Murphy and Dugdale if anything has lost SLAB support, if they can't win back support in the heat of a GE with a pretty tame and supportive MSM, I can't see them having any hope of rebuilding SLAB anytime soon. The slightly scary thought is that if Murphy does go Dugdale will be in charge until a new leadership team is put in place. You'll recollect that she couldn't even name one of Ed's pledges.
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The ARSE did well.JackW said:For the benefit of PBers who haven't the time to trawl the threads :
FPT :
I'll try and rationalize these momentous events
ARSE & the "JackW Dozen"
From the moment Ed was elected as LotO it was patently clear that EWNBPM was the order of the day. Ed never had the look, almost literally, of a Prime Minister in waiting and the voters will never elect an individual who cannot appear to command the duties of the Queen's First Minister.
The economic, social and demographic factors fell into place in my ARSE with ease. Importantly unemployment and growth both fell within a whisker of my projections as did most of the other element central to the forecast.
PBers will recall I repeatedly advised that my ARSE was not a nowcast but forecast for 7th May but clearly as the day loomed the polls would play a more important part. Despite my ARSE filter allowing for shy Tories and differential turnout that regularly topped the Conservatives above 300 the failure of the polls, even ICM, notched down the blue seats and overestimated the yellow peril. Essentially the ARSE filter required another turn.
The same is true in Scotland where my ARSE expected a higher differential turnout for the SNP but clearly by not enough.
In late 2013 I started, some said very unwisely, to choose 13 difficult seats that I believed would shape the contest and they certainly did.
Of those "JackW Dozen" 10 were hits but Nick Palmer, and losses in Cambridge (very unexpected) and Cornwall North (less so) bucked the trend.
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
#EMWNBPM
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Well, as someone who is 21 I've never known one either. Though I'm about to find out....JamesM said:As a Conservative supporter it feels a little strange. In my adult life I have never known a Conservative majority government!
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Its wrong for people to take the votes cast for each party, feed them into another voting system then declare it to be fairer or whatever based on the new outcomes, because people wouldn't have voted the way they did if we had a different system0
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Let us not forget that PB is a betting site and you try to pick out winners at the best value at the earliest possible opportunity.Jonathan said:
Obviously you turned out to be right, but out of interest, why did you keep trotting out the line? It has been quite annoying. Was that the point? Or did you have other motives?JackW said:
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Would have loved to have engaged you discussion, but you seemed to have the certainty of a religious zealot. So what's the point.
I kept "trotting out the line" because I knew it was true and I certainly wasn't going to mislead PBers into thinking Ed had a chance - He didn't .... and you'll forgive me but I was completely vindicated.
I am always happy to engage other PBers but where I am certain I say so and JackW is not for turning.
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Is there a results map anywhere for the council elections? I don't want to have to go on individually council websites each time!0
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Sounds like Tessa Jowell last night: "these early election results are not in line with what I heard on the doorsteps and I'm an experienced campaigner." So the results are wrong then, Tessa?FrancisUrquhart said:
I doubt there is one...just a joke on my part.RobD said:
Seriously? Hah!FrancisUrquhart said:So are we all ready for YouGov at 10.30....innocent face....
Can't actually believe we have a Tory majority.....0 -
Torture. my arse.HurstLlama said:
Absolute torture? Lets us look at his position: five years on £60+ grand a year, plus a zonking expense account, plenty of free foreign travel if he wants it (MPs fact finding trips etc)., no set hours of work, no performance criteria but a warm room in central London provided plus subsidised bars and restaurants. Dreadful torture, I am surprised it has not been outlawed by international convention.MP_SE said:
It will be five years of torture. Unable to resign as the seat will be lost to Labour and forced to struggle on as a party a shadow of its former self.FrancisUrquhart said:On a serious note, I really hope Nick Clegg can get over last night as a person. He looked a totally broken man.
Torture. my arse.
I hadn't got you down as an S&M type Mr L., :-)0 -
If they manage to cement the Union over the next five years from the situation it finds itself in today then that really will be a remarkable achievement. Now, with a Tory majority and no-one else to blame, is when we find out how good (or bad) they are.SeanT said:We have to consider the strange, and, for some, appalling proposition that Cameron and Osborne are political geniuses, and not just "lucky".
They won a Scottish referendum against the wiliest operator in the UK - Alex Salmond. They won it in such a way that destroyed Labour north of the Border, while keeping Scotland in GB.
They then went on to do something which is virtually unprecedented - not only increase their vote from their first winning election, but go from minority to majority government.
And they did this even when the Right is split, as never before.
Have we all underrated them? Because they look like posh thickos? If they really are smart as I'm suggesting, they will win the EU vote, effect boundary changes, give Scotland and Wales autonomy (terminally annihilating Labour), and guarantee Tory rule for the next 500 years.0 -
Yes. I suspect there were four main effects:SouthamObserver said:CarlottaVance said:
The Labour line seems to be 'This is not a bad day for Labour, but a bad day for Britain' - which is pretty insulting to 'Britain'!antifrank said:Damian McBride is doing his best on twitter to try to persuade his followers that David Cameron being re-elected is a disaster for David Cameron.
Labour collapsed in Scotland, not in England. Its vote went up, but became a lot less efficient - except in all the seats it won from the LibDems.rcs1000 said:
Yes: Labour -> UKIP, LibDem -> Con, Lab ->SNP are the three monumental shift of the evening.JEO said:
If the electoral system is bust, the idea of a left-right political spectrum is broken beyond repair. Your argument does not tally with the clear evidence of large numbers of Labour voters going straight to UKIP. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats collapsed due to the populist rise of UKIP, while we fended it off thanks to Lyndon Crosby and his strengthening of the right flank with things like English votes for English laws.rcs1000 said:I have a theory:
The Conservatives won because they moved to the centre, and they "stole" right wing Liberal Democrat votes. This wasn't (much) about Red Liberals going home, it was because the rise of UKIP and the coalition with the LibDems detoxified the Conservative brand for a lot of centre right voters.
If the LibDems are to survive - and I think it's too early to tell if they will - then they need either the Conservatives to veer right under Cameron, or the Labour Party to veer left under A N Other. Otherwise, UKIP is right, Conservatives are centre right, Labour is centre left, and the SNP/Greens are left. And centre right is the biggest block, and is owned almost entirely now by the Conservatives.
LibDem -> Con
Con -> Lab
Lab -> UKIP
Lab -> SNP
Thus the Liberal Democrats lost support overall. The Conservatives and Labour stayed roughly steady. UKIP and SNP surged.
0 -
Mr. Llama, 'torture my arse': I'd rather not...
Mr. Jonathan, Brown had a few things going for him:
1) some thought he was economically competent
2) he had home advantage in Scotland
3) it was pre-referendum in Scotland, which helped a lot
4) the Conservatives had so much ground to make up even 100 seats wasn't enough for a majority
Half of those were context-specific. Miliband would've done better in 2010. Brown would've done worse in 2015 than he did in 2010.0 -
This. I dislike him politically, but he's not some evil anti-Christ person. Blair was far worse.FrancisUrquhart said:On a serious note, I really hope Nick Clegg can get over last night as a person. He looked a totally broken man.
0 -
I need to hear from both nigel4england and Philip_Thompson re settlemrnt of GE bets. Please email your bank details (a/c name and a/c no. plus the sort code) to: peterfromputney@gmail.com.0
-
Seats with retiring Lab MP had more AWS than Open (something like 22 AWS 10 Open excluding Scotland where no-one new was elected). Two of the AWS women didn't get elected (Gower and Itchen) and one Open selection selected a woman (because NEC didn't shortlist any men...)
Among targets it was more or less split 50-50% between men and women but the poor performance meant very few got elected...6 women, 4 men in terms of gains from Con, 7 woman and 5 men among gains from LDs + the Bradford West woman.
So the new Labour intake is something like
21+6+7+1=35 women
9+4+5=18 men
I may have missed one or two but I hope notJonathan said:Interesting article about female MPs
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32601280
Labour are approaching 50:50 whereas the LDs now do not have a single woman in parliament.0 -
You also posted this down thread.The_Apocalypse said:
Well, as someone who is 21 I've never known one either. Though I'm about to find out....JamesM said:As a Conservative supporter it feels a little strange. In my adult life I have never known a Conservative majority government!
'So, to brace ourselves for the next five years. Because it looks pretty scary.'
Why not wait, before passing judgement? It's unlikely to be a future full of evil top hatted Right wingers tossing the poor onto bonfires, and lighting cigars from burning £50 notes.
Just people with good intentions doing things a different way. Don't believe the scaremongering.
0 -
I felt Farage would win by as much as he lost by.Richard_Tyndall said:
Out of interest Jack I know you said regularly on here that you thought Farage would win fairly easily. Although it wasn't part of your ARSE I was wondering why you thought that and what you think caused it to be wrong?JackW said:For the benefit of PBers who haven't the time to trawl the threads :
FPT :
I'll try and rationalize these momentous events
ARSE & the "JackW Dozen"
From the moment Ed was elected as LotO it was patently clear that EWNBPM was the order of the day. Ed never had the look, almost literally, of a Prime Minister in waiting and the voters will never elect an individual who cannot appear to command the duties of the Queen's First Minister.
The economic, social and demographic factors fell into place in my ARSE with ease. Importantly unemployment and growth both fell within a whisker of my projections as did most of the other element central to the forecast.
PBers will recall I repeatedly advised that my ARSE was not a nowcast but forecast for 7th May but clearly as the day loomed the polls would play a more important part. Despite my ARSE filter allowing for shy Tories and differential turnout that regularly topped the Conservatives above 300 the failure of the polls, even ICM, notched down the blue seats and overestimated the yellow peril. Essentially the ARSE filter required another turn.
The same is true in Scotland where my ARSE expected a higher differential turnout for the SNP but clearly by not enough.
In late 2013 I started, some said very unwisely, to choose 13 difficult seats that I believed would shape the contest and they certainly did.
Of those "JackW Dozen" 10 were hits but Nick Palmer, and losses in Cambridge (very unexpected) and Cornwall North (less so) bucked the trend.
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
But Farage proved to be a truly marmite politician of epic proportions where even his leader status was unable to cut through his divisive positions. This coupled with the fact that shy Tories outnumbered noisy Kippers.
UKIP have, as I said many times, learnt the harsh lesson that FPTP is a very harsh mistress. Totally unforgiving.
0 -
Without doubt, huge kudos and respect is due on your political skill. But you lost me over the past few years with your style. Which is a shame. My loss entirely.JackW said:
Let us not forget that PB is a betting site and you try to pick out winners at the best value at the earliest possible opportunity.Jonathan said:
Obviously you turned out to be right, but out of interest, why did you keep trotting out the line? It has been quite annoying. Was that the point? Or did you have other motives?JackW said:
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Would have loved to have engaged you discussion, but you seemed to have the certainty of a religious zealot. So what's the point.
I kept "trotting out the line" because I knew it was true and I certainly wasn't going to mislead PBers into thinking Ed had a chance - He didn't .... and you'll forgive me but I was completely vindicated.
I am always happy to engage other PBers but where I am certain I say so and JackW is not for turning.
0 -
If David Cameron wishes to be ecumenical, could he please co-opt Steve Webb to continue to serve as Pensions Minister? Ta nicely, it would be much appreciated.0
-
If Cameron had held back the referendum he would not have won the election but also when the referendum did come as it would have the unionists would have been too weak to fight it. He has been lucky through his life which suggests he may be smarter than many give him credit for.EPG said:
Red Libs went from LD to Labour, but WWC went from Labour to Ukip. So it's hard to disambiguate.Millsy said:I have a feeling many former Lib Dem voters decided to plump for the Tories or Ukip rather than Labour.
Many of the results I saw had the Lib Dems falling by double-digit amounts but Labour were picking up only a sliver in most seats.
They won a referendum, by a reasonable margin, that was literally unthinkable to lose about eleven months ago. Is that really positive points?SeanT said:We have to consider the strange, and, for some, appalling proposition that Cameron and Osborne are political geniuses, and not just "lucky".
They won a Scottish referendum against the wiliest operator in the UK - Alex Salmond. They won it in such a way that destroyed Labour north of the Border, while keeping Scotland in GB.
They then went on to do something which is virtually unprecedented - not only increase their vote from their first winning election, but go from minority to majority government.
And they did this even when the Right is split, as never before.
Have we all underrated them? Because they look like posh thickos? If they really are smart as I'm suggesting, they will win the EU vote, effect boundary changes, give Scotland and Wales autonomy (terminally annihilating Labour), and guarantee Tory rule for the next 500 years.
SNP have no real mandate for another referendum and I think this is their peak moment. From here there is only one way which is down and this may happen as soon as next year when they fight the Scottish elections. They avoided many tough questions in this election which they will need to answer in the next.
SLAB cannot be as bad as they were last night. A new generation of young candidates could quickly renew them. In the same way that Ruth Davidson has begun to rebuild the Tories so SLAB will rebuild. As for my S Lib Dems I am praying for them.
0 -
Well said. I'm disappointed that Ukip didn't do better, but there's something inside of me that's quite happy to see a majority simply because it shows that FPTP can still deliver one.isam said:Its wrong for people to take the votes cast for each party, feed them into another voting system then declare it to be fairer or whatever based on the new outcomes, because people wouldn't have voted the way they did if we had a different system
0 -
Morris, something which might amuse you and other PBers:Morris_Dancer said:
Morley & Outwood council elections:
Lab 16024
Con 13033
Labour ahead of the Conservatives in all five wards, winning four of them with the last won by Morley Independents.
Morley & Outwood parliamentary elections:
Con 18776
Lab 18354
0 -
I feel sorry for Nick Palmer. He spent five years as a self-appointed "shadow MP." All for nought. All those weekends of door knocking. Like Ken Livingstone losing the London mayoral, he had a confidence the people would eventually see the error of their ways and call for him to save them again.
All the time, without giving any acknowledgement of the scale of the fuck-up he had helped facilitate. No hint of an apology. No suggestion lessons had been learned.
It's just sad.
He should have just drawn a line - and dedicated his life to animal welfare. Which is what I hope he will do now. I wish him the best, but hope he has finally ended his own personal Westminster ambition.0 -
Result of the 1st round of the Bedford Mayoral Election
LD 25282
Con 19417
Lab 15931
Indy 12883
UKIP 7060
LD and CON to 2nd round0 -
A typo, Mr. Brooke, a typo and not an invitation.Alanbrooke said:
Torture. my arse.HurstLlama said:
Absolute torture? Lets us look at his position: five years on £60+ grand a year, plus a zonking expense account, plenty of free foreign travel if he wants it (MPs fact finding trips etc)., no set hours of work, no performance criteria but a warm room in central London provided plus subsidised bars and restaurants. Dreadful torture, I am surprised it has not been outlawed by international convention.MP_SE said:
It will be five years of torture. Unable to resign as the seat will be lost to Labour and forced to struggle on as a party a shadow of its former self.FrancisUrquhart said:On a serious note, I really hope Nick Clegg can get over last night as a person. He looked a totally broken man.
Torture. my arse.
I hadn't got you down as an S&M type Mr L., :-)
Anyway, now Cameron's excuse has been removed ("That nasty Nick Clegg won't let me do....") he is going to have to make sure that he and his team perform. With that in mind who he puts into the 24 posts vacated by the LibDems is going to be rather important. If he wants to support industry the two posts that seem to need and DTI and, especially, Energy. Any thoughts?
0 -
Well the LDs should know where to begin any minimal recovery plans from that map.Alistair said:Just seen this second place map
https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/596670711319658496
0 -
Did the Greens have a candidate in Morley?another_richard said:
Morris, something which might amuse you and other PBers:Morris_Dancer said:
Morley & Outwood council elections:
Lab 16024
Con 13033
Labour ahead of the Conservatives in all five wards, winning four of them with the last won by Morley Independents.
Morley & Outwood parliamentary elections:
Con 18776
Lab 18354
0 -
Well for me it does - I look at Conservative polices, I talk to people who have lived under Conservative governments - and it does look pretty scary. I don't really see the contradiction between being fearful of something, even though I haven't lived through it.watford30 said:
And yet, you've posted this down thread.The_Apocalypse said:
Well, as someone who is 21 I've never known one either. Though I'm about to find out....JamesM said:As a Conservative supporter it feels a little strange. In my adult life I have never known a Conservative majority government!
'So, to brace ourselves for the next five years. Because it looks pretty scary.'
0 -
That's the key issue.SouthamObserver said:
Now, with a Tory majority and no-one else to blame, is when we find out how good (or bad) they are.SeanT said:We have to consider the strange, and, for some, appalling proposition that Cameron and Osborne are political geniuses, and not just "lucky".
They won a Scottish referendum against the wiliest operator in the UK - Alex Salmond. They won it in such a way that destroyed Labour north of the Border, while keeping Scotland in GB.
They then went on to do something which is virtually unprecedented - not only increase their vote from their first winning election, but go from minority to majority government.
And they did this even when the Right is split, as never before.
Have we all underrated them? Because they look like posh thickos? If they really are smart as I'm suggesting, they will win the EU vote, effect boundary changes, give Scotland and Wales autonomy (terminally annihilating Labour), and guarantee Tory rule for the next 500 years.
Do the Cameroons actually believe their own propaganda about the economy and society being in great shape ?
0 -
The demise of the Lib Dems is interesting. I actually think the coalition was more popular than a Conservative government alone. However that didn't stop left of centre coalition supporters from finding Lib Dems hand in glove with their Tory partners as deeply unattractive even collaborators.
A total conundrum for the Libs which they were never able to deal with. Perhaps there were ways of being in government without being so intertwined?
0 -
Mr. Herdson, remember, all progress depends on unreasonable people.
A reasonable man alters his view to fit the world as it is.
An unreasonable man alters the world to fit his view.
Come to think of it, the second part explains why Labour opened the immigration floodgates... [not that the Coalition closed them].0 -
Many thanks to Mike Smithson for fantastic threads and coverage - and to Vanilla for not crashing.
Huge kudos to
- JackW Arse
- NumberCruncher (who I think posts here?) for this, which somebody linked to yesterday
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/shy-tory-factor-2015.html/
0 -
Very, very unkind...MarqueeMark said:I feel sorry for Nick Palmer. He spent five years as a self-appointed "shadow MP." All for nought. All those weekends of door knocking. Like Ken Livingstone losing the London mayoral, he had a confidence the people would eventually see the error of their ways and call for him to save them again.
All the time, without giving any acknowledgement of the scale of the fuck-up he had helped facilitate. No hint of an apology. No suggestion lessons had been learned.
It's just sad.
He should have just drawn a line - and dedicated his life to animal welfare. Which is what I hope he will do now. I wish him the best, but hope he has finally ended his own personal Westminster ambition.0 -
Did Ed get more than 50% of the vote in Doncaster North?0
-
Analysis by the the Electoralcalculus website suggests that the Tories would have had an even larger victory over Labour if the boundary changes had taken place in 2013 as planned.
telegraph.co.uk/news/11593496/New-Commons-boundaries-top-Conservative-government-agenda.html
The projections show that the Tories would have gained 314 seats if the new boundaries had been passed before the election. That would be 52.3 per cent of the Commons. The Tories gained 50.9 per cent of MPs under the current system.
Labour would have gained 211 out of the 600 seats. This is 35.1 per cent of the
proposed 600 seats, while it won 35.7 per cent of the 650 seats currently in Parliament.
Nice graphic downpage0 -
Local council results also look pretty good for the Tories:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/councils
I'm surprised UKIP aren't doing better.0 -
I not sure I've ever had a different style Jonathan but I am always happy to engage.Jonathan said:
Without doubt, huge kudos and respect is due on your political skill. But you lost me over the past few years with your style. Which is a shame. My loss entirely.JackW said:
Let us not forget that PB is a betting site and you try to pick out winners at the best value at the earliest possible opportunity.Jonathan said:
Obviously you turned out to be right, but out of interest, why did you keep trotting out the line? It has been quite annoying. Was that the point? Or did you have other motives?JackW said:
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Would have loved to have engaged you discussion, but you seemed to have the certainty of a religious zealot. So what's the point.
I kept "trotting out the line" because I knew it was true and I certainly wasn't going to mislead PBers into thinking Ed had a chance - He didn't .... and you'll forgive me but I was completely vindicated.
I am always happy to engage other PBers but where I am certain I say so and JackW is not for turning.
Try me in a few weeks time. I'll need the break .... smile:
0 -
Like you've never posted about the Dutch e-book sales charts...SeanT said:
I think you're entirely allowed to gloat today, but I hope you return to normal mode tomorrow. It might start to grate.JackW said:
Let us not forget that PB is a betting site and you try to pick out winners at the best value at the earliest possible opportunity.Jonathan said:
Obviously you turned out to be right, but out of interest, why did you keep trotting out the line? It has been quite annoying. Was that the point? Or did you have other motives?JackW said:
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Would have loved to have engaged you discussion, but you seemed to have the certainty of a religious zealot. So what's the point.
I kept "trotting out the line" because I knew it was true and I certainly wasn't going to mislead PBers into thinking Ed had a chance - He didn't .... and you'll forgive me but I was completely vindicated.
I am always happy to engage other PBers but where I am certain I say so and JackW is not for turning.
0 -
Agreed. Whether the LibDems would let him - and risk their remaining brave few (male) MP's being branded "Tory poodles" - is another matter.antifrank said:If David Cameron wishes to be ecumenical, could he please co-opt Steve Webb to continue to serve as Pensions Minister? Ta nicely, it would be much appreciated.
0 -
Mr. Richard, d'you have the local figure for the Morley Borough Independents? They stood locally, but supported Andrea Jenkyns in the Westminster vote.0
-
Hmmm. I hope you're right. I'll try and reserve judgement as much I can.watford30 said:
Why not wait, before passing judgement? It's unlikely to be a future full of evil top hatted Right wingers tossing the poor onto bonfires, and lighting cigars from burning £50 notes.The_Apocalypse said:
Well, as someone who is 21 I've never known one either. Though I'm about to find out....JamesM said:As a Conservative supporter it feels a little strange. In my adult life I have never known a Conservative majority government!
Just people with good intentions doing things a different way. Don't believe the scaremongering.
0 -
Yes, 1200 votes. UKIP did the real damage though at almost 8000 votes from both the Tories and Labour.SouthamObserver said:
Did the Greens have a candidate in Morley?another_richard said:
Morris, something which might amuse you and other PBers:Morris_Dancer said:
Morley & Outwood council elections:
Lab 16024
Con 13033
Labour ahead of the Conservatives in all five wards, winning four of them with the last won by Morley Independents.
Morley & Outwood parliamentary elections:
Con 18776
Lab 183540 -
They were screwed after the Tuition fees u-turn. It burnt all their political capital. There are some policies you can alter, but there are some that you can't. Clegg didn't spot the difference. It was the same as the Tories taking us into the Euro or Labour introducing health insurance.Roger said:The demise of the Lib Dems is interesting. I actually think the coalition was more popular than a Conservative government alone. However that didn't stop left of centre coalition supporters from finding Lib Dems hand in glove with their Tory partners as deeply unattractive.
A total conundrum for the Libs which they were never able to deal with. Perhaps there were ways of being in government without being so intertwined?0 -
Oh the irony Sean ....SeanT said:
I think you're entirely allowed to gloat today, but I hope you return to normal mode tomorrow. It might start to grate.JackW said:
Let us not forget that PB is a betting site and you try to pick out winners at the best value at the earliest possible opportunity.Jonathan said:
Obviously you turned out to be right, but out of interest, why did you keep trotting out the line? It has been quite annoying. Was that the point? Or did you have other motives?JackW said:
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Would have loved to have engaged you discussion, but you seemed to have the certainty of a religious zealot. So what's the point.
I kept "trotting out the line" because I knew it was true and I certainly wasn't going to mislead PBers into thinking Ed had a chance - He didn't .... and you'll forgive me but I was completely vindicated.
I am always happy to engage other PBers but where I am certain I say so and JackW is not for turning.
I'll do my best ....
0 -
They needed to have a couple of big manufactured rows with the Tories and to have voted down some stuff like the tuition fee increases and then getting their own version through afterwards (which is what happened anyway).Roger said:The demise of the Lib Dems is interesting. I actually think the coalition was more popular than a Conservative government alone. However that didn't stop left of centre coalition supporters from finding Lib Dems hand in glove with their Tory partners as deeply unattractive.
A total conundrum for the Libs which they were never able to deal with. Perhaps there were ways of being in government without being so intertwined?0 -
Coming up on PB - a guest slot by ex ICM boss Nick Sparrow on the polling0
-
Redcar a least was no surprise, just reversing a similarly sized swing against lab to the LDs due to highly specific scenario. Even had they done well overall that one was goingRoger said:Hard luck Nick. It wasn't Labour's night. Nothing anyone could do. The Lib Dems fared even worse.
Andrea
Extraordinary figures from some iconic seats
Cambridge 1.2%
Burnley 8.2%
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 8.7%
Cardiff Central 12.9%
Yardley 16%
Bristol West 16.9% (*in third position)
Bradford East 17.1%
Hornsey 19.1%
Redcar 25.4%
Norwich South 25.7% (*in 4th position)
Withington 29.8%
Brent Central 53.7% (* in third position)
0 -
What a great night for the Blues. Totally unexpected.Richard_Nabavi said:Local council results also look pretty good for the Tories:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/councils
I'm surprised UKIP aren't doing better.0 -
*sighs*
If only someone had told the experts that Ed Miliband is crap.0 -
Enjoy your break, JackW. Hope The Good Lady hasn't got wind of your betting coup - or it will be a four week tour of Italian shoe outlets....!JackW said:
I not sure I've ever had a different style Jonathan but I am always happy to engage.Jonathan said:
Without doubt, huge kudos and respect is due on your political skill. But you lost me over the past few years with your style. Which is a shame. My loss entirely.JackW said:
Let us not forget that PB is a betting site and you try to pick out winners at the best value at the earliest possible opportunity.Jonathan said:
Obviously you turned out to be right, but out of interest, why did you keep trotting out the line? It has been quite annoying. Was that the point? Or did you have other motives?JackW said:
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Would have loved to have engaged you discussion, but you seemed to have the certainty of a religious zealot. So what's the point.
I kept "trotting out the line" because I knew it was true and I certainly wasn't going to mislead PBers into thinking Ed had a chance - He didn't .... and you'll forgive me but I was completely vindicated.
I am always happy to engage other PBers but where I am certain I say so and JackW is not for turning.
Try me in a few weeks time. I'll need the break .... smile:0 -
I know it's early days, but do we have any feel for what went wrong with the polls? Was it that the polls were wrong for a long time, or was it that something happened very very late in the day that won it for the Tories? Or was it a combination of the two?
I ask because it might be a pointer for things to come. If there was a super late swing to the Tories when the electorate were faced with the choice, that's not a great endorsement for the Tories in the long run should they come up against some better than Ed.0 -
Has everyone noticed the huge majorities Labour piled up in London and other conurbations ?
But their problem is there's not enough guardianista and non-white dominated constituencies.
Now take a take a look at the constituencies Labour lost to the Conservatives:
Bolton W
Derby N
Gower
Morley & Outwood
Plymouth Moor View
Southampton Itchen
Telford
Vale of Clwyd
All rather wwc.
Its UKIP's wwc vote which won it for the Conservatives.
0 -
Tough one Mr LHurstLlama said:
A typo, Mr. Brooke, a typo and not an invitation.Alanbrooke said:
Torture. my arse.HurstLlama said:
Absolute torture? Lets us look at his position: five years on £60+ grand a year, plus a zonking expense account, plenty of free foreign travel if he wants it (MPs fact finding trips etc)., no set hours of work, no performance criteria but a warm room in central London provided plus subsidised bars and restaurants. Dreadful torture, I am surprised it has not been outlawed by international convention.MP_SE said:
It will be five years of torture. Unable to resign as the seat will be lost to Labour and forced to struggle on as a party a shadow of its former self.FrancisUrquhart said:On a serious note, I really hope Nick Clegg can get over last night as a person. He looked a totally broken man.
Torture. my arse.
I hadn't got you down as an S&M type Mr L., :-)
Anyway, now Cameron's excuse has been removed ("That nasty Nick Clegg won't let me do....") he is going to have to make sure that he and his team perform. With that in mind who he puts into the 24 posts vacated by the LibDems is going to be rather important. If he wants to support industry the two posts that seem to need and DTI and, especially, Energy. Any thoughts?
For DTI I'd go for some brainless Oxbridge type who has worked in finance but not actually done any work. Claire Perry looks suitably obnoxious and she went to Harvard the home of the financial crisis.
For Energy I'd go for my MP Nadhim Zahawai an Osborne leg humper whose main adavnatge is he uses a lot of energy to heat his horses.0 -
Grab your pitchforks!MikeSmithson said:Coming up on PB - a guest slot by ex ICM boss Nick Sparrow on the polling
0 -
Precious little escapes Mrs JackW .... especially my wallet.MarqueeMark said:
Enjoy your break, JackW. Hope The Good Lady hasn't got wind of your betting coup - or it will be a four week tour of Italian shoe outlets....!JackW said:
I not sure I've ever had a different style Jonathan but I am always happy to engage.Jonathan said:
Without doubt, huge kudos and respect is due on your political skill. But you lost me over the past few years with your style. Which is a shame. My loss entirely.JackW said:
Let us not forget that PB is a betting site and you try to pick out winners at the best value at the earliest possible opportunity.Jonathan said:
Obviously you turned out to be right, but out of interest, why did you keep trotting out the line? It has been quite annoying. Was that the point? Or did you have other motives?JackW said:
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Would have loved to have engaged you discussion, but you seemed to have the certainty of a religious zealot. So what's the point.
I kept "trotting out the line" because I knew it was true and I certainly wasn't going to mislead PBers into thinking Ed had a chance - He didn't .... and you'll forgive me but I was completely vindicated.
I am always happy to engage other PBers but where I am certain I say so and JackW is not for turning.
Try me in a few weeks time. I'll need the break .... smile:
0 -
You're slipping out of character here "JackW"JackW said:
Oh the irony Sean ....SeanT said:
I think you're entirely allowed to gloat today, but I hope you return to normal mode tomorrow. It might start to grate.JackW said:
Let us not forget that PB is a betting site and you try to pick out winners at the best value at the earliest possible opportunity.Jonathan said:
Obviously you turned out to be right, but out of interest, why did you keep trotting out the line? It has been quite annoying. Was that the point? Or did you have other motives?JackW said:
So overall perhaps a B+ .... I hope adherents of the ARSE punted well, you really should have and now PBers for one final time may I express the view, much derided by many, that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Would have loved to have engaged you discussion, but you seemed to have the certainty of a religious zealot. So what's the point.
I kept "trotting out the line" because I knew it was true and I certainly wasn't going to mislead PBers into thinking Ed had a chance - He didn't .... and you'll forgive me but I was completely vindicated.
I am always happy to engage other PBers but where I am certain I say so and JackW is not for turning.
I'll do my best ....0 -
This was a point you made this time last year in relation to Sherwood. It proved profitable for me: thank you.another_richard said:Has everyone noticed the huge majorities Labour piled up in London and other conurbations ?
But their problem is there's not enough guardianista and non-white dominated constituencies.
Now take a take a look at the constituencies Labour lost to the Conservatives:
Bolton W
Derby N
Gower
Morley & Outwood
Plymouth Moor View
Southampton Itchen
Telford
Vale of Clwyd
All rather wwc.
Its UKIP's wwc vote which won it for the Conservatives.0 -
Why? There is no sentiment in politics. and I seem to recall that he previously stated that he never posted anything he knew not to be true.. but he over egged as he put it how well Labour were doing.... interesting euphemism.MarqueeMark said:I feel sorry for Nick Palmer. He spent five years as a self-appointed "shadow MP." All for nought. All those weekends of door knocking. Like Ken Livingstone losing the London mayoral, he had a confidence the people would eventually see the error of their ways and call for him to save them again.
All the time, without giving any acknowledgement of the scale of the fuck-up he had helped facilitate. No hint of an apology. No suggestion lessons had been learned.
It's just sad.
He should have just drawn a line - and dedicated his life to animal welfare. Which is what I hope he will do now. I wish him the best, but hope he has finally ended his own personal Westminster ambition.
If there is to be any form of sympathy, I know he worked damned hard for 5 yrs.. but hard work doesn't always get rewarded.
Labour were screwed over their stance over the economy. People did not or could not trust Labour and certainly not Miliband. He was unelectable. Jack W was correct all along.
Hence sympathy zero but grateful for the donation to LUPUS UK. . Lupus is a horrible illness.. its not known about much but its v nasty. It did for my wife after many years of struggle and suffering.
http://www.lupusuk.org.uk/0 -
Feel sorry for Esther McVey. It must be hard not be the only one not invited to this party. But if things do not go well, she will be untainted and in a strong position to lead in future.0
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4271 in Morley NorthMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Richard, d'you have the local figure for the Morley Borough Independents? They stood locally, but supported Andrea Jenkyns in the Westminster vote.
2523 in Morley South
http://www.leeds.gov.uk/council/Pages/Leeds-City-Council-election-results.aspx
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Hear hear, like lord Hutton last time, we need lord Webb being brought into pensions againantifrank said:If David Cameron wishes to be ecumenical, could he please co-opt Steve Webb to continue to serve as Pensions Minister? Ta nicely, it would be much appreciated.
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Hadn't spotted that the Tories got surprisingly close in Barrow & Furness: majority of 795, 5% swing to the Tories.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000543
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Just caught up with things, Camo's going for FFA in Scot isn't he?0
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Clegg is the one who I feel worst for. A genuine guy who did what was best for his country (most of the time). I hope that he joins the blue frontbench at some point in the future.Jonathan said:Feel sorry for Esther McVey. It must be hard not be the only one not invited to this party. But if things do not go well, she will be untainted and in a strong position to lead in future.
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I think in the long run local councils are a bit of a problem for Ukip. Their voters are primarily voting for them with a view to national issues. That's not to say that Ukip or their voters don't care about local issues, but I'm not sure they have quite the same drive as the Lib Dems did to become entrenched in certain areas of the country which helps builds support for Westminster elections.Richard_Nabavi said:Local council results also look pretty good for the Tories:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/councils
I'm surprised UKIP aren't doing better.0 -
The Conservatives were clinical with their targeting. Labour must be in shock at such ruthless sniping.MarqueeMark said:Hadn't spotted that the Tories got surprisingly close in Barrow & Furness: majority of 795, 5% swing to the Tories.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140005430 -
Ed popped up by Nicola who obliges him not to renew Trident scare?MarqueeMark said:
Hadn't spotted that the Tories got surprisingly close in Barrow & Furness: majority of 795, 5% swing to the Tories.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140005430 -
When Miliband became leader I knew Labour couldn't win and never wavered from that position. The historical record was against them anyhow, but Miliband just cemented that result in stone (sorry about the pun!)
I said on here in 2010/11 they would be looking at best at a Kinnockesque (1987) or Hagueian (2001) result.
And that was before the SNP lit a bonfire under Scottish Labour.
But it just got worse. The "wrong brother" tag never left him, and his comedy value as the helpless dork who couldn't even eat a bacon sarnie (or remember not to try with the cameras around) just confirmed that he was genetically unfit to be PM.
The idea of this man stumbling into office, the prisoner of angry Scottish separatists no doubt caused Middle England to take fright.
Delusional stunts like supplicating before Brand and unveiling the EdStone merely added a feeling of the surreal to the already absurd.0 -
I think this is exactly correct. Labour's mindset is entirely coming from a London point of view. They came up with a policy platform that resonated a lot with ethnic minorities, who tend to be very left wing, and student/young professional Guardian readers. The result was that they actually did pretty well in other places that have these demographics: Luton, Bristol, Oxford etc. In the rest of the country, they got hammered. They carried on in the hope that increasing immigration will make the rest of the country more like their London base. But it will take another 20 years at high immigration levels for us to get there. And the Conservatives will reform the immigration system to prevent it happening in the next five.another_richard said:Has everyone noticed the huge majorities Labour piled up in London and other conurbations ?
But their problem is there's not enough guardianista and non-white dominated constituencies.
Now take a take a look at the constituencies Labour lost to the Conservatives:
Bolton W
Derby N
Gower
Morley & Outwood
Plymouth Moor View
Southampton Itchen
Telford
Vale of Clwyd
All rather wwc.
Its UKIP's wwc vote which won it for the Conservatives.0
