Undefined discussion subject.

Voters’ own predictions are less favourable to Labour than the poll headlines suggest. When asked to predict the poll scores, on average, respondents expect Labour to secure only 32, three three points less than the 35% that they expect for the Tories.

https://twitter.com/guardian_clark/status/595981624824700928

Gold standard

TheScreamingEagles said:

Voters’ own predictions are less favourable to Labour than the poll headlines suggest. When asked to predict the poll scores, on average, respondents expect Labour to secure only 32, three three points less than the 35% that they expect for the Tories.

Is that actually worth anything? I am very skeptical of these "wisdom indices".

So far, all final polls point to EICIPM

This is truly (puts on Canadian accent) a terrrrible poll for the Tories.

Pulpstar said:

It came late, but the Green squeeze is fully on at last. Kippers remaining resilient.

That should benefit the LDs

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/guardian_clark/status/595981624824700928

Cold comfort.

Voters aren't obsessed by polls like we are and will pick up 'mood music' from the unrepresentative Tory press.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Voters’ own predictions are less favourable to Labour than the poll headlines suggest. When asked to predict the poll scores, on average, respondents expect Labour to secure only 32, three three points less than the 35% that they expect for the Tories.

Is that actually worth anything? I am very skeptical of these "wisdom indices".

The ICM Wisdom poll was the most accurate poll at the last election

In that case, then why care about provisional VI ICM polls? Why not only focus on the Wisdom Indexes, if even the ICM VI (which is seen on here as the gold standard) didn't get it right last time out?

SO Give it a rest.Just vote Tory and relax.

SeanT said:

You could have saved yourselves a lot of angst just by listening to me for the last two months.

Narrow Ed Miliband plurality. As I said. Many many times.

What about those calling it for Ed for years? Granted not me, I was predicting a Lab majority which doesn't seem likely, but no-one should be surprised tomorrow.

The Wisdom index is now the NEW Gold Standard

That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them

If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster

Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.

Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.

Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Voters’ own predictions are less favourable to Labour than the poll headlines suggest. When asked to predict the poll scores, on average, respondents expect Labour to secure only 32, three three points less than the 35% that they expect for the Tories.

But who cares? It doesn't matter what people think, it's how they vote.

I am not sure about this report about Tory Party having a weak ground game - Just spent day in Tory target seat - really well resourced and organised team - with lots of external support inbound - Fairly impressed by the Get out the vote operation,

This year's telephone polls vs YouGov polls. Click charts to enlarge...





YouGov's methology changed at data point number 72 and took 5 days to fully impact upon the moving average.

TimGeo said:

I am not sure about this report about Tory Party having a weak ground game - Just spent day in Tory target seat - really well resourced and organised team - with lots of external support inbound - Fairly impressed by the Get out the vote operation,

The ground game is about the months, even years, leading to the election. Not the last few days.

A little light relief from polls - erection leaflet fails:

http://www.sunnation.co.uk/flyering-into-trouble-these-are-the-best-ge-leaflet-fails

JonCisBack said:

That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them

If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster

Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.

Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.

Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?

There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

It could well be yet more Guardian hubris - this is the preliminary poll, not the final one.

Looks like some Labour/Green churn, which could turn out to be significant, though.

Worth noting that the Wisdom index poll gives the Tories a three point lead.

If the polls are right I think that following this, and Romney, and indyref, you may have to retire from predictions altogether, old boy.

I am beyond confident that I am right. I just cannot see how Labour is going to have net gains of 50 or more in England and Wales. I can see a way to 30 or so, maybe a few more with a fair wind, but nowhere near enough to be the largest party.

But if I am wrong, that's me done. I will have to accept I am clueless.

"What on earth is going on."

Good question. 9 rogue polls in a row.

If Chestnut's around i'm sure he can explain it

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

I just EICIPM'ed on Betfair.

Lab minority for me !

It's a good bet. I'm +£300 on that.

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

You could have saved yourselves a lot of angst just by listening to me for the last two months.

Narrow Ed Miliband plurality. As I said. Many many times.

We haven't actually had the election yet.

About 20% of it we have, but point taken. It is possible that the polls are wrong, that there will be a late surge, and Lab will not hang on at all in Scotland, and the Tory surge takes place in key marginals, and the LDs keep enough seats and are willing to prop them up again. But that's a lot of things that have to happen on very little evidence to support it.

It's all over bar the shouting. I would not mind being proven wrong and that being quoted back at me, but I think I'm safe.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/595986376774045696

Straw clutching... might in think this tie is an outlier and so want to extend the survey to check if it really is going to be the poll they are judged on in term of gold standard reputation?

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

It could well be yet more Guardian hubris - this is the preliminary poll, not the final one.

Looks like some Labour/Green churn, which could turn out to be significant, though.

Worth noting that the Wisdom index poll gives the Tories a three point lead.

If the polls are right I think that following this, and Romney, and indyref, you may have to retire from predictions altogether, old boy.

I am beyond confident that I am right.

Do you *ever* learn?!

Just returned.

Whilst a bad poll for the blues, consider that some of us did not get excited by the six point lead. The average lead remains steady at 3 points.

And there's one more ICM to go.

No point being giddy or despairing, especially when the vote's tomorrow and the result's the day after that.

Stereotomy said:

Casino_Royale said:

JonCisBack said:

That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them

If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster

Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.

Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.

Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?

There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.

Yeah the Tory right have been quiet recently, and I think people are forgetting what a nightmare they'll probably be for Cameron et. al. if the election goes poorly

Unlike some in the Tory party, I don't blame everything on the Tory right. There are just as many idiots on the Tory left and in the modernising wings.

Conversely, there are very perceptive and intelligent Tories across all wings.

The first task of any new leader is to unite the Tory party and stop this silly factionalism that's been around for at least 30 years, now.

ICM reaction: http://imgur.com/r/highqualitygifs/xgL4eSV

Casino_Royale said:

TimGeo said:

I am not sure about this report about Tory Party having a weak ground game - Just spent day in Tory target seat - really well resourced and organised team - with lots of external support inbound - Fairly impressed by the Get out the vote operation,

The ground game is about the months, even years, leading to the election. Not the last few days.

precisely.

you could tell back in 2012/2013 that Cameron just wasn't doing enough to win a majority, his continued reliance on Ed will scare the voters back is probably one of the worst pieces of political judgement is quite some time.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/595986376774045696

They don't believe it's not a Tory win, many pollsters will re-do and re-do all their polls tomorrow just because they can't produce the preferred result.

Casino_Royale said:

Stereotomy said:

Casino_Royale said:

JonCisBack said:

That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them

If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster

Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.

Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.

Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?

There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.

Yeah the Tory right have been quiet recently, and I think people are forgetting what a nightmare they'll probably be for Cameron et. al. if the election goes poorly

Unlike some in the Tory party, I don't blame everything on the Tory right. There are just as many idiots on the Tory left and in the modernising wings.

Conversely, there are very perceptive and intelligent Tories across all wings.

The first task of any new leader is to unite the Tory party and stop this silly factionalism that's been around for at least 30 years, now.

Well okay, I guess I phrased it that way because it's the right who aren't in charge right now, meaning that they're the candidates for "troublemaker". But yeah, if a very right-wing leader took over, that might flip.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/595986376774045696

Straw clutching... might in think this tie is an outlier and so want to extend the survey to check if it really is going to be the poll they are judged on in term of gold standard reputation?

Bank holiday polling, cough.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/04/29/will-labour-get-its-bank-holiday-poll-bounce/

TSE voter strategy *cough*

Casino_Royale said:

Stereotomy said:

Casino_Royale said:

JonCisBack said:

That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them

If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster

Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.

Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.

Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?

There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.

Yeah the Tory right have been quiet recently, and I think people are forgetting what a nightmare they'll probably be for Cameron et. al. if the election goes poorly

The first task of any new leader is to unite the Tory party and stop this silly factionalism that's been around for at least 30 years, now.

No pressure then.

Neil said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

It could well be yet more Guardian hubris - this is the preliminary poll, not the final one.

Looks like some Labour/Green churn, which could turn out to be significant, though.

Worth noting that the Wisdom index poll gives the Tories a three point lead.

If the polls are right I think that following this, and Romney, and indyref, you may have to retire from predictions altogether, old boy.

I am beyond confident that I am right.

Do you *ever* learn?!

There's no point in coming on here and not making predictions, is there? As I commented the other day, I have made a few decent ones as well. But, understandably, my vociferous failures stick in the minds of my sterner critics :-D

If I get this one wrong, I reckon I'll be sticking to snarky comments and nothing else for ever after. But I won't, so I won't.

SeanT said:

You could have saved yourselves a lot of angst just by listening to me for the last two months.

Narrow Ed Miliband plurality. As I said. Many many times.

SeanT said:

If ICM proves accurate, Bob Sykes and me will be, once again, probably the only rightwingers on pb to have called the election right. We did the same in 2010.

Yup. They can't say we didn't try to tell them.

Again...

All that said, I did expect to see the Tories consistently ahead in most polls by the start of May. That we didn't even get to that (which I think would still have made it touch and go as to who was largest), shows how dismal the Tory campaign has been, and how it abandoned or simply forgot its strongest cards - 1, the economy; 2, "go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed".

Thanks to that, we're all going to wake up with Ed, and have him making our lives miserable and wallets lighter for at least the next 5 years.

And the hopeless fecker didn't even want to be leader of his party, he only stood so his brother would have to put him in his Shadow Cabinet!

Alanbrooke said:

Casino_Royale said:

TimGeo said:

I am not sure about this report about Tory Party having a weak ground game - Just spent day in Tory target seat - really well resourced and organised team - with lots of external support inbound - Fairly impressed by the Get out the vote operation,

The ground game is about the months, even years, leading to the election. Not the last few days.

precisely.

you could tell back in 2012/2013 that Cameron just wasn't doing enough to win a majority, his continued reliance on Ed will scare the voters back is probably one of the worst pieces of political judgement is quite some time.

I don't agree with this level of ruthlessness but I'm sure Cameron knows he won't make it to the men's room if he loses.

He'll quit within hours if all is lost.

Plato said:

https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/595988243042213888

Not enough of them though, unless they atypically break overwhelmingly and unreaslistically massively in one direction.

Casino_Royale said:

JonCisBack said:

That ICM is terrible for the tories, worst poll for weeks for them

If the tories can't get 300+ seats, they really only want about 260. 280 is a disaster

Scraping together a weak government with a smashed LD party and some borderline nutjobs who think line-dancing is the devil's work is a sure way to electoral oblivion next time.

Far better to let Ed cobble together a sh1t government and see Labour lose big style when we go again in a year or 5.

Grexit's coming, China's looking dodgy, and the NHS will sooner or later need proper reform, not just endless billions. #GoodOnetoLose ?

There are no good elections to lose. And I expect the Tories to go ape-shit internally if they do.

At 10.01pm tomorrow night the conservatives will start going apeshit. The level of apeshit will, IMO, be as follows;

330+ seats 1% apeshit.
315-330 seats 5% apeshit.
306-315 seats 2.5% apeshit.
280-306 seats 50% apeshit.
Under 280, but still most seats 66% apeshit.
Under 280 and labour most seats 110% apeshit.
Labour plurality +25 seats- "it woz fixed" 1100% apeshit.
Labour Majority - Tea party style "government not legitimate" off-the-scale-apeshit.

watford30 said:

I'm looking forward to Labour cuts. Good cuts of course. But cuts, none the less.

And the NHS,those waiting times should come flying down under labour,just like in labour Wales ;-)

SeanT The Smith plans will be legislated for by both parties and Sturgeon has made clear there will only be referendum 2 if circumstances change ie Brexit

I doubt a Lab minority would ever happen because:
1) Whatever Ed says, if Lab+SNP is a majority they'll do it; and SNP on, say, 50 means Lab have to get only 275. If they fail to get that, they've probably failed to beat the Tories.
2) Could a Lib Minority push out a Tory minority? I doubt it. Plus if they're only on 275, the Tories could easily be on 290 and the LDs on 35.

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

Bit gutted by this poll. Can't pretend otherwise.

Also going to make the call on whether phone or internet has done best more complicated. Very large convergence.

OTOH it's a bad poll for the Nats (in Westminster terms). Their ideal result was a Tory maj, or a Tory led Coalition, able to completely ignore all the new SNP MPs. Then Sturgeon could have said the London government was illegitimate, we want a referendum by tea-time, etc

With Miliband highly likely to edge it in seats, Miliband will be forming a government that relies in part on Nat support. So the Nats won't be able to whinge that Scotland has no say in London.

I suppose the risk is that Miliband does so well he can form a Coalition with just the LDs and SDLP, but he'll need 300+ seats for that? Not likely.

Labour need to be 3% ahead for a coalition with the LD.

In total here are the goalposts:

LAB MAJ: LAB+5%
LAB-LD: LAB +3%
CON-LD: CON +5%
CON MAJ: CON +10%

I expect a coalition of at least 3 parties will be needed, but right now Labour seem a tad closer to their LD coalition than the Tories.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/595986376774045696

Straw clutching... might in think this tie is an outlier and so want to extend the survey to check if it really is going to be the poll they are judged on in term of gold standard reputation?

Bank holiday polling, cough.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/04/29/will-labour-get-its-bank-holiday-poll-bounce/

TSE voter strategy *cough*

I'm signed up to knock up the voters tomorrow.

I'm keeping calm.

what for ? To vote Clegg out ? Seems more stupid than normal for the Cameroons.

S.O. You intrigue me.Your heart is in the right place,but you let posters here on PB influence your judgement.
I have met Ed,he is not crap,and the polls have increasingly shown that when he has more exposure,the public,which has been conditioned by a press that hates him for his stance on Levenson,is open to a change of opinion.

Damn. I so want to be a fly on the wall in the Sun newsroom!

The Oscar for humility for the sixth consecutive year goes to Southam Observer.

The presentation will be made by President Mitt Romney in newly independent Scotland