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Latest South Shields betting showing best prices and where money is going.Ukip being well supported twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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Off topic. For those thinking any and all cuts to benefits are incredibly cruel, were they at a cruel level back in the 1990s?
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/66529000/gif/_66529019_rising_costs2_1948-2012_624.gif0 -
Depends on your view of what benefits are for? If you believe they are of use as a safety net for those temporarily in need and/or incapable of earning their own income, then the 'cuts' (actually stabilised and better targeted benefits), are just fine. If you believe they should be a lifestyle choice and a massive bribe to millions who don't actually need them, (the Balls/Labour approach), then things are going to hell.
My hatred of the Labour party is reaching Bin Laden vs The west level now. Total fecking bs on a daily basis with only one goal in mind. Lie cheat and deceive their way back into power at any cost. That includes, nay demands, the total destruction of the UK economy and society when they get there.
If Labour look like like winning in 2015 I'm up for backing a right wing coup to keep the buggers out.0 -
I've got evens with Ladbrokes that Ukip will come second and 25/1 with PaddyPower that they'll. I think I'm going to come out even with just a chance of a big win. Whatever I think my losses are covered.kle4 said:Eh, A UKIP win is very unlikely but worth a punt I suppose. Certainly second seems like a good chance.
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Conservatives 50/1
"So you're telling me there's a chance? YEAH!!!!"
- Jim Carrey.
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Tell me how I'm going to be £75 a month worse off Tim.
Or is Ed Balls just talking shite again?0 -
I may be missing something, but how can Labour lose? A party which got over 50% of the vote at the General. In a bad election for them. They're now in opposition (automatic by-election boost there generally). Against a party which didn't even run there in 2010. UKIP would need one of the 10 largest by-election swings in history. So surely we shouldn't be taking anything below 100/1?0
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"Out of work benefits". Right, because they were all shuffled across onto disability rolls.tim said:@Socrates
I don't think you've worked out that pensioners are included in that graph have you.
Out of work benefits peaked in 86/87 and 94/97 then fell.
This bunch of incompetents are cutting in ways that increase benefits spending.
Welfare up £21bn
Higher bill is blow for Osborne
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4858298/Blow-for-Osborne-as-benefits-bill-21billion-higher-than-expected.html0 -
FPT -
Socrates said:
Instigate a salary cap to promote parity.
Rather socialist for you, no?
Not at all. If the team owners vote for it, so be it. If done right it works on several levels - you get a more competitive league, which means a better product on the field, it makes assembling a team more complex than merely stroking checks, will lead to more locally developed talent, and will help the team bottom line.
If you do it badly then you end up with either the financial disaster that is the NBA, or the financial and ratings disaster that is Major League Baseball.
SeanT made the point that the Premiership is the world's most popular sports league, and I'm sure that's true, even if it's basically a Man U, Arsenal and Chelsea league, with some other team scraping through (Blackburn Rovers and Man City) when nobody's looking.
What is also true is the utter incompetence of the league at running its business and monetizing it to the maximum.
The world's most popular sports league earns less than a third of what the NFL earns each year. Going from memory, (so I might be wrong) I think even the NHL earns more than the EPL.
They seem unable to negotiate serious TV contracts for some reason, and the various 'FA's have all kinds of mind numbingly dumb rules as to what can and cannot be broadcast.
Every NFL game is shown live on TV and all sell over 80% capacity, most sold out. If a game is less than 80% sold out 48 hours before kick off, the game is blacked out in its home market, which helps achieve it.
Give people a reason to go the stadium- decent food, huge jumbotrons showing replays, fantasy football stats, and so on - and they will go.0 -
Ignoring 100s of incidents like this over yearsQuincel said:I may be missing something, but how can Labour lose? A party which got over 50% of the vote at the General. In a bad election for them. They're now in opposition (automatic by-election boost there generally). Against a party which didn't even run there in 2010. UKIP would need one of the 10 largest by-election swings in history. So surely we shouldn't be taking anything below 100/1?
http://www.bdpost.co.uk/news/crime-courts/barking_men_accused_of_running_child_prostitution_ring_1_1974781
but only if the Tories had made an issue of it.0 -
Agreed a LAB loss looks remote. The biggest danger is if they get the candidate selection wrong. There was a huge row in 2001 when all sorts of machinations took place to ensure that the selection took place at last minute & David Miliband was parachuted in.Quincel said:I may be missing something, but how can Labour lose?
A second danger is if Ukip can find someone as good as Diane James who is able to tap the anti-politics mood.
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@TimGattITV: Wow - David Miliband quits as Sunderland director over new manager Paolo Di Canio's "past political statements" http://davidmiliband.net/2013/03/statement-on-sunderland-afc-role/0
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This 900,000 (nearly) who dropped their incapacity benefit claims pre assessment apparently based on 2009 figures - dropping out when it was replaced by ESA in 2008. Not really the impression given by IDS and Shapps from what (little, admittedly) I've seen on tv.0
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"but only if the Tories had made an issue of it."
Although actually, thinking about it more, if the Cameroons had made more of an issue out of it then it wouldn't be as good to Ukip as an example of the political class colluding as a caste to cover up the biggest child abuse scandal since Victorian times - so from a Ukip point of view i guess that's a catch 22.0 -
March 31st, 2013
David Miliband said: “I wish Sunderland AFC all success in the future. It is a great institution that does a huge amount for the North East and I wish the team very well over the next vital seven games. However, in the light of the new manager’s past political statements, I think it right to step down.”
Odd that he didn't wait to convince Di Canio of the error of his ways.0 -
Paulo does have some rather suspect politics!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1506262/Im-a-fascist-not-a-racist-says-Paolo-di-Canio.html
I wouldn't want to be associated with him.
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Quite a few years ago now my old firm had a box at Tannadice where Dundee United play. I recall a match when they were playing Celtic and right in front of us Di Canio got a ridiculous shoulder high cross field ball going like a rocket. He jumped and somehow rolled the ball down his chest, down his leg and right out in front of him in the direction he was going.
Those in the boxes, United supporters naturally, just gasped and broke into spontaneous applause. It was probably the most outrageous piece of individual skill I have been lucky enough to witness although a goal by Eamon Bannon came close. He was some player.
Anyway, OGH speculates that Labour would only be at risk if they chose a bad candidate. Worse than David Miliband? How bad are we talking here? Maybe not conversant with English?0 -
The 1990/91 outturn £58bn.tim said:Go and provide some figures that prove your point and we'll have a look at them
Working age benefits as a % of GDP, not the pointless effort you've made so far with a pensions-heavy graph you didnt understand.
The OBR's 2014/15 forecast £70bn.
That's total benefits excluding the state pension and pension credit. Now a fair comparison would adjust the latter figure down by about 10% , due to population growth, but even then, it's still more generous.
So was the 1990/91 some cruel, "evil" system, as some on here have labelled the 2015 situation?
[Edited to include pension credit.]0 -
BBC News now banging on about Di Canio being associated with the far right.0
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Di Canio did score some great goals for West Ham in the early 2000s.DavidL said:Quite a few years ago now my old firm had a box at Tannadice where Dundee United play. I recall a match when they were playing Celtic and right in front of us Di Canio got a ridiculous shoulder high cross field ball going like a rocket. He jumped and somehow rolled the ball down his chest, down his leg and right out in front of him in the direction he was going.
Those in the boxes, United supporters naturally, just gasped and broke into spontaneous applause. It was probably the most outrageous piece of individual skill I have been lucky enough to witness although a goal by Eamon Bannon came close. He was some player.0 -
I remember "I'm Sorry I'll Read That Again" doing the Rolf Harris dirty songbook, with all the rude words beeped out. I still have the cassette tape somewhere
Two little boys had two little - beep
Great big wolf hound standing looking at me, Licking his - beep
They also did the Julie Andrews dirty sing book -
I could have - beep - all night
etc....0 -
tim B.
The Alice in Sunderland skit was also very good.
I've never been able to listen to I Could Have Danced All Night without a smirk on my face.0 -
Yeah, I saw him play at Leicester City, he was good as a player. I am not sure that the step up from Swindon Town to Sunderland is manageable for a fairly inexperienced manager.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Di Canio did score some great goals for West Ham in the early 2000s.DavidL said:Quite a few years ago now my old firm had a box at Tannadice where Dundee United play. I recall a match when they were playing Celtic and right in front of us Di Canio got a ridiculous shoulder high cross field ball going like a rocket. He jumped and somehow rolled the ball down his chest, down his leg and right out in front of him in the direction he was going.
Those in the boxes, United supporters naturally, just gasped and broke into spontaneous applause. It was probably the most outrageous piece of individual skill I have been lucky enough to witness although a goal by Eamon Bannon came close. He was some player.
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I don't think UKIP can take the seat but I think they do have a chance of winning a higher share of the vote than they got in Eastleigh, (which was 27.8%).0
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I think the largest single groan inducing line they came up with was (it helps to read it out loud) -dr_spyn said:tim B.
The Alice in Sunderland skit was also very good.
I've never been able to listen to I Could Have Danced All Night without a smirk on my face.
Sir Otto of Wensleydale, who consumed his arrow with butter and jam, is thus declared the winner of this year's eatin' 'n' arrow match.
Some of those Prune Playhouse opuses were truly awful.
You're in tune with Prune!
(very quietly) bum0 -
It would be interesting to see which would be the wrong or the good selection in this occasion It may depend on how the campaign develops.MikeSmithson said:
Agreed a LAB loss looks remote. The biggest danger is if they get the candidate selection wrong. There was a huge row in 2001 when all sorts of machinations took place to ensure that the selection took place at last minute & David Miliband was parachuted in.Quincel said:I may be missing something, but how can Labour lose?
In Rotherham they probably got it right in the end (a smiling woman running a children hospice who was even a party member before 2010 compared to someone associated with the Council).
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Just watched the Labour Party broadcast, or the BBC Ten O'Clock news as it's better known.
They even managed to get the 'Di Canio is a Nazi' dig in. Didn't see anything about the arrests for child abuse in Peterborough though.
It really is a disgrace.0 -
They are indeed benefits. But even if we knock them off, the same story holds. Winter fuel payments add about £2bn to the later date. Council tax benefit £3.5bn to the earlier one. You are using little tiddly things to try to change the subject rather than admit the fundamental point. Benefits, even after the cuts, will be more generous than they were in 1990.tim said:@Socrates
You appear to be including pensioner council tax benefits, winter fuel allowance etc etc in working age benefits
This is a pointless exercise on your behalf,you clearly don't understand what you are posting.
I know you're psychologically flawed and incapable of ever admitting a mistake or conceding a point, but reality is reality.0 -
@jonnycope: I am now in my bedroom, I won't be paying any additional revenue towards the Government for its use. Odd, I thought there was a #BedroomTax0
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I suspect the wind was not as strong as forecast this afternoon, but despite it not being as quick as I thought it was a very profitable afternoon.0
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Yes, very much so.AndreaParma_82 said:
It would be interesting to see which would be the wrong or the good selection in this occasion It may depend on how the campaign develops.MikeSmithson said:
Agreed a LAB loss looks remote. The biggest danger is if they get the candidate selection wrong. There was a huge row in 2001 when all sorts of machinations took place to ensure that the selection took place at last minute & David Miliband was parachuted in.Quincel said:I may be missing something, but how can Labour lose?
In Rotherham they probably got it right in the end (a smiling woman running a children hospice who was even a party member before 2010 compared to someone associated with the Council).
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Of course if UKIP got the same percentage of votes as in Wellington (46.25%) they would win South Shields. I'll admit it would be a big ask though. But who knows in these days.
Congratulations Cllr Denis Allen
Posted on March 28, 2013 by UKIP Telford & Wrekin
UKIP Telford & Wrekin Chairman, Denis Allen, has won tonight’s by-election for the Dothill ward of Wellington Town Council.
Denis secured a whopping 46.25% of the vote, not just beating the Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem candidates but taking more than double the votes of the second placed Labour candidate.
The results were:
Denis Allen
UKIP
303 (46.25%)
Margaret Malcolm
Labour
151 (23%)
Ed Bird
Conservative
108 (16.5%)
David Holloway
Lib Dem
90 (13.75%)
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New Bundestag poll:
Emnid:
CDU/CSU: 39.5%
SDP: 26.5%
Greens: 15.5%
Linke: 6.0%
FDP: 6.0%
Pirates: 2.5%
Others: 4.0%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm0 -
@dr_spyn
A couple from the Sherlock Holmes play -
announcer - Sherlock Holmes was standing in the fireplace
Oddie - Aha! The great detective
announcer - In London, Queen Victoria was still on the throne.
sfx - door knob rattling, and man with very anxious voice - Hurry up!! Hurry up!!
announcer - London was in the grip of a dense fog.
Cleese (in dense fog voice) GOTCHA!!!! ha ha ha
Cleese - This fog is a real.. a real...
Garden - Pea souper?
Cleese - No thanks sergeant. I went before I left home.
As I recall Jack the Ripper was ripping off skirts, and - of course - eventually Lady Constance de Coverlet is the victim.
Graeme Garden's Eddie Waring impressions were fantastic. They would start at the most odd moments.
For example - announcer "One thing leads to another"
Waring - Ha ha well, Speaking of Leeds, they had a great game against Hull kingston Rovers (etc etc and always ended) and that's all you're getting.
Frequently early baths and up and unders were mentioned.
Perhaps the best was when they did Guerre sans Frontiers, or It's a Wash Out.
Waring was interviewing a German athlete Fritz (Cleese).
Waring - and what do you do for a living, Fritz?
Fritz - Ich bein ein chartered accountant, Herr Varing
Waring - well, he's a nice lad, but he does have a funny accent.
- and there I'll stop. The show always ended with Bill Oddie's Angus Prune Tune, usually with considerable audience involvement.
My name is Angus Prune
and I always listen to I'm Sorry I'll Read That Again
(You Don't!)
My name is Angus Prune
and I never miss I'm Sorry I'll Read That Again
(Get Away!)
I sit in my bath
And I have a good laugh
Cause the sig tune is named after me
(Tell us yer name!)
My name is Angus Prune
And this is my tune
It goes I-S-I-R-T-A
I'm Sorry I'll Read That AGAIN!
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MikeK said:
Of course if UKIP got the same percentage of votes as in Wellington (46.25%) they would win South Shields. I'll admit it would be a big ask though. But who knows in these days.
Congratulations Cllr Denis Allen
Posted on March 28, 2013 by UKIP Telford & Wrekin
UKIP Telford & Wrekin Chairman, Denis Allen, has won tonight’s by-election for the Dothill ward of Wellington Town Council.
Denis secured a whopping 46.25% of the vote, not just beating the Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem candidates but taking more than double the votes of the second placed Labour candidate.
The results were:
Denis Allen
UKIP
303 (46.25%)
Margaret Malcolm
Labour
151 (23%)
Ed Bird
Conservative
108 (16.5%)
David Holloway
Lib Dem
90 (13.75%)
It takes a leap of faith to extrapolate the results of a parish council bye election like this to a NE urban constituency. Bless!MikeK said:Of course if UKIP got the same percentage of votes as in Wellington (46.25%) they would win South Shields. I'll admit it would be a big ask though. But who knows in these days.
Congratulations Cllr Denis Allen
Posted on March 28, 2013 by UKIP Telford & Wrekin
UKIP Telford & Wrekin Chairman, Denis Allen, has won tonight’s by-election for the Dothill ward of Wellington Town Council.
Denis secured a whopping 46.25% of the vote, not just beating the Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem candidates but taking more than double the votes of the second placed Labour candidate.
The results were:
Denis Allen
UKIP
303 (46.25%)
Margaret Malcolm
Labour
151 (23%)
Ed Bird
Conservative
108 (16.5%)
David Holloway
Lib Dem
90 (13.75%)0 -
Mike, if 40% or so of people think 16/1 on UKIP is value, and 40% think 1/19 on Labour is value, then the consensus is that UKIP have between a 5% and 10% of taking the seat, roughly speaking. I'm not sure that's enough to make it a battle. UKIP need a Teutoburg Forest.0
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England 8, Hungary didn 'tdr_spyn said:@Tim_B
There may be some clips from ISIRTA on Youtube. I haven't checked them out yet.
Professor Prune came to an African water hole, where there were lions, elephants, springboks and wolves too, aston villa 3.
Who can forget Stanley Stamps, author of Stanley Stamps Gibbon Catalog?
- and let's not forget that seminal work, Edward Empire's Decline and fall of the Roman Gibbon, gibbon half a chance.
All together, sing "oh, stuff that gibbon, oh, stuff that gibbon"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b009zbr20 -
I'll eat my hat if UKIP, or indeed anyone other than Labour, win South Shields. This is one of the safest Labour seats in the country.
Since 1935, when they managed a mere 48% of the total vote, Labour has never ever slipped below 50% here, except in 1983 when the SDP split the left and took them as low as 48% again. Often they've scored over 60% of the vote. In 2010, at a low point in Labour support and with left-leaning voters drifting to the LibDems, David Miliband was down to a paltry 52%. That must be seen as the lowest possible figure they might achieve; there is not a snowflake's chance in hell that their performance in a mid-term by-election, when they are the main opposition and doing well in national polls, will be worse than that. I'm expecting a Labour vote share more like 60%.
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Chris Huhne, the former MP for Eastleigh photographed at Leyhill Prison.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9964241/Pilates-tennis-and-organic-food-in-Chris-Huhne-jail.html
Someone won't be happy about publication of these pictures. Perhaps the Cameroonies are trying to discredit Theresa May.
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Cammo bogged down again:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9964348/David-Cameron-wades-into-swamp-to-rescue-sheep.html0 -
Cue for story in The Mirror or The Guardian or on BBC News about Cameron drowning lambs.RichardNabavi said:
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I just hope he doesn't have any blue paint on his chest...... ;-)dr_spyn said:
Cue for story in The Mirror or The Guardian or on BBC News about Cameron drowning lambs.RichardNabavi said:0 -
Some days ago it was mentioned that South Tyneside Council has had a pretty decent Independents representation while Labour was in government nationally.
Others made the point it's pretty difficult for Independents to shine in a constituency wide by-election without imported footsoliders being able to cover the whole constituencies in a short campaign.
Since 1992, in Great Britain, the only Indy win has been Dai Davies in Blaenau Gwent. Infact, the only other saved deposits have been:
Tony Devoy 5.2% in Barnsley Centeal 2011
Paul Gittins 6.7% in Sedgefield 2007
Stephen Mungall 5.5% in Hamilton South 1999
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@tim - Questions have been asked as to whether Health & Safety rules were followed. I'm sure Ed M will be demanding a public inquiry, Ed Balls will be demanding to know why Dave was helping his rich friends, Len McCluskey will be incandescent with rage at the fact that Dave was doing a task which trade unionists could have done, and the NUT will want to know what message this sends to disadvantaged school kids who don't get the opportunity to rescue lambs.0
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I'd guess that there are Kippers out there akin to the Rand Paul fan club who are intoxicated with the idea of success and willing to bet their hearts out. Some of us made a steady little income from laying the Paul bets as they appeared. UKIP is doing much better than Paul, but not really advancing further in recent weeks. What we need is a "UKIP>35%" market - I doubt if that's achievable in this by-election but there are lots who will disagree.0
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Nigel Farage had dinner with Ron Paul yesterday:
"Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage 30 Mar
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage
Had dinner with Ron Paul last night.100 per cent genuine and a real pleasure"0 -
I suppose 'genuine' means 'untainted with reality'.AndyJS said:Had dinner with Ron Paul last night. 100 per cent genuine and a real pleasure"
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Revising my call from a top in the markets on March 27 plus or minus a day to around the end of next week - price action has churned up a bit more time in an ascending triangle formation, that should break out to the upside. Looking for about 1597 on the S&P 500. Looking for GBPUSD to get to a revised target around 1.5430 area ideally. And then it should be south again to below the 1.48 area - we shall see.
Terrible UK current account figures last week which hardly got a mention in the wider press - around £58bn in the red for 2012 which is around 3.7% of GDP. Only 4 years since 1948 has the UK current account been over 4%, the last time being in 1989. Some rebalancing going on there Mr Osborne!0 -
I'll lay ukip >35% at 4/1 If any of the regular PB punters are interested. Max stake £50.NickPalmer said:I'd guess that there are Kippers out there akin to the Rand Paul fan club who are intoxicated with the idea of success and willing to bet their hearts out. Some of us made a steady little income from laying the Paul bets as they appeared. UKIP is doing much better than Paul, but not really advancing further in recent weeks. What we need is a "UKIP>35%" market - I doubt if that's achievable in this by-election but there are lots who will disagree.
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Moderator - please release my previous post re: Farage and meeting Ron Paul etc. Thanks.0
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&Pong - did you convert GBP into USD or have you hung on for a better price?
I'm not taking you up on your UKIP bet - I can see somewhere around 25%, possibly 28%, but 35% no way, especially when I can't see Labour much below 60%. Drop your UKIP share to 27 / 28% and you might have some takers! Not me though!0 -
Test0
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Today, Monday 1st April 2013, I can now officially announce that I have resigned from the OMRLP and joined the Conservative Party.0
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@hunch
I held on - will exchange this week. Thanks for the advice.
As for ukip %age, imo they'll have a hard task meeting pb expectations in SS. I have decent stake on ukip<22% courtesy of PP & i'm happy with that.
To get to 35% most of these cards would have to fall into their lap;
Lab parachute in outsider
Tories give up & field crap candidate
Ukip find a local non-fruitcake who stands up to scrutiny.
Turnout low
Ukip Build a decent GOTV operation pretty much from scratch
Lab post vote & GOTV operation underperforms
No credible independent spoilers for the NOTA vote
Those are the unknowns at this point & my instinct is to bet against the high expectations.
Apols for the slightly disjointed & craply edited post - vanilla on chrome for iphone isn't great
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Telegraph - David Cameron wades into swamp to rescue sheep
" The prime minister became the hero of the hour when he plunged waist-deep into a swamp to save a ewe that got stuck in the mud.
Cameron was on his way home from visiting a neighbouring farmer near his house in Chipping Norton when he heard a sheep bleating at around 6pm.
He discovered the ewe immersed in the muddy swamp, after she had followed her two lambs in to save them, both of whom drowned.
After alerting the farmer, Cameron waded into the swamp, together with his two armed police guards, and proceeded to push the ewe out of the mud to safety.
“When I got there, David was in the swamp, waist-deep in mud, along with the two police, who had all gone in there to help drag this sheep out,” said farmer Julian Tustian"0 -
I'd guess Rotherham (22%) would a better baseline than Eastleigh plus or minus a bit depending on the list a few posts below
"Lab parachute in outsider
Tories give up & field crap candidate
Ukip find a local non-fruitcake who stands up to scrutiny.
Turnout low
Ukip Build a decent GOTV operation pretty much from scratch
Lab post vote & GOTV operation underperforms
No credible independent spoilers for the NOTA vote"
The only thing that *possibly could* shift a seat like that would be something like the grooming but that doesn't mean there's much chance it will.0 -
@hunchmanhunchman said:Revising my call from a top in the markets on March 27 plus or minus a day to around the end of next week - price action has churned up a bit more time in an ascending triangle formation, that should break out to the upside. Looking for about 1597 on the S&P 500. Looking for GBPUSD to get to a revised target around 1.5430 area ideally. And then it should be south again to below the 1.48 area - we shall see.
Terrible UK current account figures last week which hardly got a mention in the wider press - around £58bn in the red for 2012 which is around 3.7% of GDP. Only 4 years since 1948 has the UK current account been over 4%, the last time being in 1989. Some rebalancing going on there Mr Osborne!
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/6558/#Comment_6558
I remember the balance of payments was always a major news item in the 1970s each month. Nowadays, they seem to be virtually ignored.
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@JohnLoonyJohnLoony said:Today, Monday 1st April 2013, I can now officially announce that I have resigned from the OMRLP and joined the Conservative Party.
Will you notice the difference?
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Would you lay 5/2 UKIP>25%.Pong said:
I'll lay ukip >35% at 4/1 If any of the regular PB punters are interested. Max stake £50.NickPalmer said:I'd guess that there are Kippers out there akin to the Rand Paul fan club who are intoxicated with the idea of success and willing to bet their hearts out. Some of us made a steady little income from laying the Paul bets as they appeared. UKIP is doing much better than Paul, but not really advancing further in recent weeks. What we need is a "UKIP>35%" market - I doubt if that's achievable in this by-election but there are lots who will disagree.
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