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Comments
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I liked Jolyon Rubinstein in The Revolution Will Be Televised but watched the real him on this week,what a pr!ck.0
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"had"JohnLilburne said:
"has", not "have"Casino_Royale said:
YawnGov.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a one-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
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1. No it wouldn't.TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
2. Yes it would. The correct analogy is with Charles Parnell.
3. No you bloody well can't compare him to Parnell; I already have the thread ready for after the election.0 -
O/T Senna on ITV again now, brilliant film/doc well worth watching again and again0
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I thought that de Valeras faction of the IRA waged the Irish Civil War sortly arfter independence and murdered Michael Collins amongst others.EPG said:
A terrorist uses terror. I doubt anyone was ever terrified of either man.TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
For all his faults Salmond is a better man.0 -
I thought so.Y0kel said:
Yes you would. Mind you some of nationalist rhetoric has the fervour of the less tolerable elements of Irish republicanism.TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
I was doing some thinking, and thinking this could be a 1918 style election, re the Nats.
As an aside, in 1918, the Liberal Leader lost his seat.0 -
Nah, the 5% threshold would not be applied UK-wide but to Wales, Northern Ireland, England and Scotland. So the SNP would be in as well as the Northern Irish parties and PC.Dair said:
If it was Universal PR then SNP and PC would joint ticket and get votes in England. They would reach 5% without problem.Speedy said:
Well lets see, PR with current numbers lets say CON 34, LAB 34, UKIP 13, LD 8, GRN 5, SNP 4:Dair said:
PR will see Labour and the Tories both drop to 200 seats ON CURRENT NUMBERS.Freggles said:
Are the SNP against proportional representation?
Labour plus SNP plus PC plus LD = PR?
PR = bye bye SNP
Switching to PR will drop their vote shares to at most 25%. 150 seats each (in a 600 member parliament).
Neither of those parties will allow that.
CON 221
LAB 221
UKIP 85
LD 52
GRN 32
SNP 26
OTH 13
Result: No government.
If there is a 5% threshold:
CON 235
LAB 235
UKIP 90
LD 55
GRN 35
Result: Each block 325 seats, could go either way, oh and no SNP or PC.
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@The Screaming Eagles
I would compare Nicola Sturgeon to Eamonn De Valera - Salmond is too flamboyant for a comparison with him to be plausible. I expect the SNP result on 7/5/15 to match that of SF in Dec 1918.
No unionist party can or should have any dealings (in terms of forming/running a UK government) with parties like the SNP or its sister party in Ireland (SF both then and now).0 -
Yes.Richard_Nabavi said:
The most obvious explanation is that Labour believe that they are being very badly hit by the 'weak Miliband in thrall to Nicola' argument.SeanT said:This is interesting.
Miliband is doubling down on the "no deal" talk.
http://labourlist.org/2015/05/miliband-tells-scotland-there-will-be-no-deal-no-pact-no-coalition-no-tie-in-with-the-snp/
That is SO unequivocal I am starting to wonder (I know, I know) if he is telling the truth, and not just blatantly lying.
Perhaps he means it? Would he forego the chance to be PM if he had to rely on SNP support?
I can't believe he would. And yet he is setting himself up for a terrible fall with these adamantine statements.
And why not? As electoral arguments go, it's one of the most persuasive and one of the most grounded in reality we've seen for yonks.
We must also believe that the parties are as tuned in as anybody as to what is happening on the ground and what the likely vote will be. The Ed/Nicola thing is not an 'argument' (as in reasoned discourse) - its what the voters are thinking.0 -
One man's terrorist...TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
It's hard to foresee Salmond occupying a biscuit factory in Edinburgh to further an armed uprising against London rule before going on to fight a guerilla war against a newly independent Scottish government though.
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Not really incendiary enough, try Nelson Mandela (both questions).TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?0 -
"never had"RobD said:
"had"JohnLilburne said:
"has", not "have"Casino_Royale said:
YawnGov.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a one-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
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That was Thatcher, but she did alright for herself in the end.Casino_Royale said:
I loved that slip of the tongue. I mean, who wants to go down in history as losing to Ed Miliband?Jonathan said:
Wonder who Dave will be in thrall to if he has a whiff of power. It's a career defining election after all.Richard_Nabavi said:
The most obvious explanation is that Labour believe that they are being very badly hit by the 'weak Miliband in thrall to Nicola' argument.SeanT said:This is interesting.
Miliband is doubling down on the "no deal" talk.
http://labourlist.org/2015/05/miliband-tells-scotland-there-will-be-no-deal-no-pact-no-coalition-no-tie-in-with-the-snp/
That is SO unequivocal I am starting to wonder (I know, I know) if he is telling the truth, and not just blatantly lying.
Perhaps he means it? Would he forego the chance to be PM if he had to rely on SNP support?
I can't believe he would. And yet he is setting himself up for a terrible fall with these adamantine statements.
And why not? As electoral arguments go, it's one of the most persuasive and one of the most grounded in reality we've seen for yonks.
He will possibly be the most unpopular Prime Minister we've ever had inside 18 months.0 -
Who?SeanT said:
I met Mr Hodges a couple of years ago, he was nice chap if a bit taciturn, and he admitted that if Labour actually won "my career will be over".kle4 said:
I actually enjoy him to be honest - when he gets away from just harping on the Ed is Crap stuff, he can make some good points and I think he's a decent writer. It's just his prolific output on the same goddamn points about Ed and Labour over and over again that demand skimming of the rest of his stuff.Neil said:
You seem to be reading far too much of Hodges' output than is sensible. I only ever read his stuff when it is posted here and even then I do try to skim over most of it.kle4 said:
I think he has. Every now and then he slips in little pieces of meta-commentary about punditry and what commentators will do when proven wrong, in terms of justifying how they could be so wrong but will continue to make predictions boldly, and that sort of thing, that makes me think he knows he is wrong (or could be wrong at least), but is wedded to his schtick at this point. It's what they pay him for after all.Neil said:
So Hodges has learned nothing from this election.bigjohnowls said:DH slagging Survation now
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago Queensferry, Scotland
One thing I've learnt from this election. He who pays the piper calls Survation.
YouGov. More like the EdLeadsTheNextGov.
I'm guessing that he feels differently now, and he's not the first journalist-pundit to make a total tit of himself (D Aaronovitch: "I will retire if they don't find WMD in Iraq") but he will be devalued. And in the end Getting It Totally Wrong can terminally damage a political writer's career, cf the Life and Times of Anatole Kaletsky.0 -
Link to back that up?Jonathan said:
That was Thatcher, but she did alright for herself in the end.Casino_Royale said:
I loved that slip of the tongue. I mean, who wants to go down in history as losing to Ed Miliband?Jonathan said:
Wonder who Dave will be in thrall to if he has a whiff of power. It's a career defining election after all.Richard_Nabavi said:
The most obvious explanation is that Labour believe that they are being very badly hit by the 'weak Miliband in thrall to Nicola' argument.SeanT said:This is interesting.
Miliband is doubling down on the "no deal" talk.
http://labourlist.org/2015/05/miliband-tells-scotland-there-will-be-no-deal-no-pact-no-coalition-no-tie-in-with-the-snp/
That is SO unequivocal I am starting to wonder (I know, I know) if he is telling the truth, and not just blatantly lying.
Perhaps he means it? Would he forego the chance to be PM if he had to rely on SNP support?
I can't believe he would. And yet he is setting himself up for a terrible fall with these adamantine statements.
And why not? As electoral arguments go, it's one of the most persuasive and one of the most grounded in reality we've seen for yonks.
He will possibly be the most unpopular Prime Minister we've ever had inside 18 months.0 -
Don't worry, I've got another thread mostly written comparing the Nats to the NazisIshmael_X said:
Not really incendiary enough, try Nelson Mandela (both questions).TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
(Well the Unionists to the French in the lead up to 1940)0 -
That's a sure sign you know they lost the evening.Moses_ said:Reverting to type
Labour are accusing the business woman on QT this week of being a plant..
Playing the lady not the ball.
And with that, I bid you all Goodnight.0 -
@Casino_Royale
'He will possibly be the most unpopular Prime Minister we've ever had inside 18 months'
A Labour government without any money to spend & with Ed as Nicola's poodle,a sight to behold.0 -
Does it involve the Waffen Yes-Yes and the Yestapo?TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't worry, I've got another thread mostly written comparing the Nats to the NazisIshmael_X said:
Not really incendiary enough, try Nelson Mandela (both questions).TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
(Well the Unionists to the French in the lead up to the 1940s)0 -
Yes, I've been pointing that out for years. There certainly won't be a new settlement in 2017, or indeed before 2020, as anyone following EU affairs knows. There are 3 possibilities:
1. Cameron says "Here's what I think it will look like, is that OK?" People probably say yes. Some years later, an actual treaty emerges. Cameron says yeah, well, close enough, you're not having ANOTHER referendum, that would be silly.
2. Ditto, but Cameron DOES offer a further referendum in GE 2020, so we spend the next 7 years or so debating Europe, before probably deciding to stay.
3. Cameron says in 2017 oops, this is taking longer than we thought, we'll get back to you when it's ready, and things drift on to 2020.
It seems odd that nobody is seeking clarification of which is envisaged. But it's academic if the Tories don't get an overall majority anyway.
Nothing wrong with a little constructive boredom, as Ed moves towards No 10.bigjohnowls said:Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 6m6 minutes ago
Only 5 days to go until #GE2015, and no politics on p1s of Times, Daily Mail or The Sun tomorrow. Shows just how bored we think voters are.
Or that tonights YG VI does not show a Tory lead
Whilst you have spent the last few years ensuring cats, dogs and other animals are treated better ( a worthy cause) have you thought about offering the humans who occupy this island the opportunity to vote and have a say on our membership?
No. And that's why people should vote Tory in Broxtowe
I find the whole deference attitude on here to Nick Palmer (sacked ex MP) ridiculous.
So he posts on PB-big deal.
I read his posts expecting some wisdom and in-site-5 years ago you tended to get a little.
Now all he posts is platitudes, and self congratulatory comments about how well he is doing and how grateful and pleased the peasants of Broxtowe are to have his magnificence back on their door step.
Ed Miliband has learnt little in opposition-I have heard nothing that makes me think Nick Palmer has learnt much more.
Sorry Nick-but you epitomise the casual arrogance of Tony Blair's Labour party.
And for that reason-I hope you remain Fired.0 -
Germany mixed system PR&FPTP.HYUFD said:PR would leave to Tory and UKIP coalitions and Labour and Green and nationalist coalitions with the LDs going either way, it would also stop the SNP getting 90% of Scottish seats on 50% or less of the vote. Germany has PR, New Zealand has PR, Spain has PR, Italy has PR, the Nordic countries have PR, Israel has PR, Japan has PR, Russia has PR, South Africa has PR, Brazil and Mexico have PR. FPTP is actually the exception
Spain D'Hond method PR.
Italy had a mixed system of PR&FPTP, ditched for Italicum (a winner take all seats).
Finland has PR but look at it's recent elections.
Israel has PR but again look at it's messy elections.
Japan has mixed PR&FPTP.
Russia has PR, but doesn't need it.
S.Africa has PR, but parties breakdown on racial grounds.
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There have been several high profile commentators try to imply various things about Survation. If that was my business I would be calling in the lawyers.Casino_Royale said:
I do wish he'd STFU.bigjohnowls said:DH slagging Survation now
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago Queensferry, Scotland
One thing I've learnt from this election. He who pays the piper calls Survation.
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No, The Dyle Plan.Casino_Royale said:
Does it involve the Waffen Yes-Yes and the Yestapo?TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't worry, I've got another thread mostly written comparing the Nats to the NazisIshmael_X said:
Not really incendiary enough, try Nelson Mandela (both questions).TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
(Well the Unionists to the French in the lead up to the 1940s)
So, the question is who will be Hitler, Sturgeon or Salmond and utter
"I could have wept for joy, they had fallen into the trap"0 -
Why would Con support the SNP amendment?SeanT said:
No, the SNP will amend legislation to make it more "progressive" (and more favourable to Scotland) and then when Labour refuse, they'll vote it down.MikeL said:I actually don't think Miliband will do deals with the SNP.
Think how closely the media will be looking at him. They'll jump on anytime they even see Lab speaking to the SNP.
If Lab introduces a policy in line with SNP rather than Lab manifesto, media will go beserk. Not just the Murdoch papers - all media, including TV.
So I think Miliband will just play it very, very straight. He'll follow the Lab manifesto precisely and dare the SNP to vote against. Which they won't.
So Miliband will be forced to reach an accommodation, or, if you like, a "deal".
OK, they might try and cause a bit of trouble but I suspect the result will be that only straightforward stuff goes through.
Remember even if a Bill is lost, the Government won't fall.0 -
I doubt it will need 18 days. As Nicola swans into Downing Street for her umpteenth slice of Dundee cake with Ed....Casino_Royale said:
I loved that slip of the tongue. I mean, who wants to go down in history as losing to Ed Miliband?Jonathan said:
Wonder who Dave will be in thrall to if he has a whiff of power. It's a career defining election after all.Richard_Nabavi said:
The most obvious explanation is that Labour believe that they are being very badly hit by the 'weak Miliband in thrall to Nicola' argument.SeanT said:This is interesting.
Miliband is doubling down on the "no deal" talk.
http://labourlist.org/2015/05/miliband-tells-scotland-there-will-be-no-deal-no-pact-no-coalition-no-tie-in-with-the-snp/
That is SO unequivocal I am starting to wonder (I know, I know) if he is telling the truth, and not just blatantly lying.
Perhaps he means it? Would he forego the chance to be PM if he had to rely on SNP support?
I can't believe he would. And yet he is setting himself up for a terrible fall with these adamantine statements.
And why not? As electoral arguments go, it's one of the most persuasive and one of the most grounded in reality we've seen for yonks.
He will possibly be the most unpopular Prime Minister we've ever had inside 18 months.0 -
She followed through. I fear Miliband will be all fart.Jonathan said:
That was Thatcher, but she did alright for herself in the end.Casino_Royale said:
I loved that slip of the tongue. I mean, who wants to go down in history as losing to Ed Miliband?Jonathan said:
Wonder who Dave will be in thrall to if he has a whiff of power. It's a career defining election after all.Richard_Nabavi said:
The most obvious explanation is that Labour believe that they are being very badly hit by the 'weak Miliband in thrall to Nicola' argument.SeanT said:This is interesting.
Miliband is doubling down on the "no deal" talk.
http://labourlist.org/2015/05/miliband-tells-scotland-there-will-be-no-deal-no-pact-no-coalition-no-tie-in-with-the-snp/
That is SO unequivocal I am starting to wonder (I know, I know) if he is telling the truth, and not just blatantly lying.
Perhaps he means it? Would he forego the chance to be PM if he had to rely on SNP support?
I can't believe he would. And yet he is setting himself up for a terrible fall with these adamantine statements.
And why not? As electoral arguments go, it's one of the most persuasive and one of the most grounded in reality we've seen for yonks.
He will possibly be the most unpopular Prime Minister we've ever had inside 18 months.0 -
If our projected outcome for a hung parliament is Con 290, Lab 270, SNP 50 and LD 25 etc then we with have a cross party govt of some sort.
I don't see how PR would break the deadlock. More likely make it permanent.0 -
You can call them "Nutsies" a nice portmanteau word, it sounds like Nazis but is derived from nuts and nutters.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't worry, I've got another thread mostly written comparing the Nats to the NazisIshmael_X said:
Not really incendiary enough, try Nelson Mandela (both questions).TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
(Well the Unionists to the French in the lead up to 1940)0 -
I expect Dan Hodges to be largely vindicated. OK, UKIP aren't going to poll as low as 6% and the Tories probably aren't going to get a majority, but I think his essential thesis will stand up - a UKIP squeeze, a late break to the Tories (which the phone polls arguably already have) and Cameron in the 300-310s with Labour lower than last time.SeanT said:
I met Mr Hodges a couple of years ago, he was nice chap if a bit taciturn, and he admitted that if Labour actually won "my career will be over".kle4 said:
I actually enjoy him to be honest - when he gets away from just harping on the Ed is Crap stuff, he can make some good points and I think he's a decent writer. It's just his prolific output on the same goddamn points about Ed and Labour over and over again that demand skimming of the rest of his stuff.Neil said:
You seem to be reading far too much of Hodges' output than is sensible. I only ever read his stuff when it is posted here and even then I do try to skim over most of it.kle4 said:
I think he has. Every now and then he slips in little pieces of meta-commentary about punditry and what commentators will do when proven wrong, in terms of justifying how they could be so wrong but will continue to make predictions boldly, and that sort of thing, that makes me think he knows he is wrong (or could be wrong at least), but is wedded to his schtick at this point. It's what they pay him for after all.Neil said:
So Hodges has learned nothing from this election.bigjohnowls said:DH slagging Survation now
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago Queensferry, Scotland
One thing I've learnt from this election. He who pays the piper calls Survation.
YouGov. More like the EdLeadsTheNextGov.
I'm guessing that he feels differently now, and he's not the first journalist-pundit to make a total tit of himself (D Aaronovitch: "I will retire if they don't find WMD in Iraq") but he will be devalued. And in the end Getting It Totally Wrong can terminally damage a political writer's career, cf the Life and Times of Anatole Kaletsky.
If so, he'll deserve all the kudos he will get [and no doubt the fulsome admissions of misjudgment on here!]. Many of his fellow travellers have wavered and fallen away in the last month!0 -
Prezza and Crick having a box in Redcar today. Highlight of the campaign!0
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That was a committee stage of the RPA, at the parliamentary stage the proposals for AV and STV were rejected pretty convincingly. You're right though that I was unaware of this till you mentioned it and I had to look it up.RodCrosby said:
The ruling elites of almost all countries recognised it in the period 1910-1920. Even the Liberals here recognised it, and tried to introduce STV, missing out by 1 vote...Dair said:
Yeah but when have parties done this.RodCrosby said:
Until they see that under FPTP they could drop even further. cf Scotland 2015, Liberals 1930s for what can happen.Dair said:
PR will see Labour and the Tories both drop to 200 seats ON CURRENT NUMBERS.Freggles said:
Are the SNP against proportional representation?
Labour plus SNP plus PC plus LD = PR?
PR = bye bye SNP
Switching to PR will drop their vote shares to at most 25%. 150 seats each (in a 600 member parliament).
Neither of those parties will allow that.
Maybe Labour will realise their time is up.0 -
If Ukip poll single figures, the pollsters will have got it horrendously wrong. Would be horrific for them (and me)Tissue_Price said:
I expect Dan Hodges to be largely vindicated. OK, UKIP aren't going to poll as low as 6% and the Tories probably aren't going to get a majority, but I think his essential thesis will stand up - a UKIP squeeze, a late break to the Tories (which the phone polls arguably already have) and Cameron in the 300-310s with Labour lower than last time.SeanT said:
I met Mr Hodges a couple of years ago, he was nice chap if a bit taciturn, and he admitted that if Labour actually won "my career will be over".kle4 said:
I actually enjoy him to be honest - when he gets away from just harping on the Ed is Crap stuff, he can make some good points and I think he's a decent writer. It's just his prolific output on the same goddamn points about Ed and Labour over and over again that demand skimming of the rest of his stuff.Neil said:
You seem to be reading far too much of Hodges' output than is sensible. I only ever read his stuff when it is posted here and even then I do try to skim over most of it.kle4 said:
I think he has. Every now and then he slips in little pieces of meta-commentary about punditry and what commentators will do when proven wrong, in terms of justifying how they could be so wrong but will continue to make predictions boldly, and that sort of thing, that makes me think he knows he is wrong (or could be wrong at least), but is wedded to his schtick at this point. It's what they pay him for after all.Neil said:
So Hodges has learned nothing from this election.bigjohnowls said:DH slagging Survation now
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago Queensferry, Scotland
One thing I've learnt from this election. He who pays the piper calls Survation.
YouGov. More like the EdLeadsTheNextGov.
I'm guessing that he feels differently now, and he's not the first journalist-pundit to make a total tit of himself (D Aaronovitch: "I will retire if they don't find WMD in Iraq") but he will be devalued. And in the end Getting It Totally Wrong can terminally damage a political writer's career, cf the Life and Times of Anatole Kaletsky.
If so, he'll deserve all the kudos he will get [and no doubt the fulsome admissions of misjudgment on here!]. Many of his fellow travellers have wavered and fallen away in the last month!0 -
Yes. Salmond hasn't killed any British soldiers.TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?0 -
Two of the largest democracies, India and the USA have FPTP.Speedy said:
Germany mixed system PR&FPTP.HYUFD said:PR would leave to Tory and UKIP coalitions and Labour and Green and nationalist coalitions with the LDs going either way, it would also stop the SNP getting 90% of Scottish seats on 50% or less of the vote. Germany has PR, New Zealand has PR, Spain has PR, Italy has PR, the Nordic countries have PR, Israel has PR, Japan has PR, Russia has PR, South Africa has PR, Brazil and Mexico have PR. FPTP is actually the exception
Spain D'Hond method PR.
Italy had a mixed system of PR&FPTP, ditched for Italicum (a winner take all seats).
Finland has PR but look at it's recent elections.
Israel has PR but again look at it's messy elections.
Japan has mixed PR&FPTP.
Russia has PR, but doesn't need it.
S.Africa has PR, but parties breakdown on racial grounds.0 -
Brief dip on Con Maj to under 8 on betfair. A triumph for leaving lays up!0
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Dan Hodges is a modern standard for contrarians.Tissue_Price said:
I expect Dan Hodges to be largely vindicated. OK, UKIP aren't going to poll as low as 6% and the Tories probably aren't going to get a majority, but I think his essential thesis will stand up - a UKIP squeeze, a late break to the Tories (which the phone polls arguably already have) and Cameron in the 300-310s with Labour lower than last time.SeanT said:
I met Mr Hodges a couple of years ago, he was nice chap if a bit taciturn, and he admitted that if Labour actually won "my career will be over".kle4 said:
I actually enjoy him to be honest - when he gets away from just harping on the Ed is Crap stuff, he can make some good points and I think he's a decent writer. It's just his prolific output on the same goddamn points about Ed and Labour over and over again that demand skimming of the rest of his stuff.Neil said:
You seem to be reading far too much of Hodges' output than is sensible. I only ever read his stuff when it is posted here and even then I do try to skim over most of it.kle4 said:
I think he has. Every now and then he slips in little pieces of meta-commentary about punditry and what commentators will do when proven wrong, in terms of justifying how they could be so wrong but will continue to make predictions boldly, and that sort of thing, that makes me think he knows he is wrong (or could be wrong at least), but is wedded to his schtick at this point. It's what they pay him for after all.Neil said:
So Hodges has learned nothing from this election.bigjohnowls said:DH slagging Survation now
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago Queensferry, Scotland
One thing I've learnt from this election. He who pays the piper calls Survation.
YouGov. More like the EdLeadsTheNextGov.
I'm guessing that he feels differently now, and he's not the first journalist-pundit to make a total tit of himself (D Aaronovitch: "I will retire if they don't find WMD in Iraq") but he will be devalued. And in the end Getting It Totally Wrong can terminally damage a political writer's career, cf the Life and Times of Anatole Kaletsky.
If so, he'll deserve all the kudos he will get [and no doubt the fulsome admissions of misjudgment on here!]. Many of his fellow travellers have wavered and fallen away in the last month!
Along with the Economist of course.0 -
If various accounts of the events in Boland's Mills in Easter Week 1916 are true neither did Eamon de Valera.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yes. Salmond hasn't killed any British soldiers.TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
0 -
Maybe they haven't got a defense?MP_SE said:
There have been several high profile commentators try to imply various things about Survation. If that was my business I would be calling in the lawyers.Casino_Royale said:
I do wish he'd STFU.bigjohnowls said:DH slagging Survation now
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago Queensferry, Scotland
One thing I've learnt from this election. He who pays the piper calls Survation.0 -
As for the nature of the deal, the Telegraph article which was posted earlier has the details, and they are delicious (if you're a connoisseur of political torture):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11578212/nicola-sturgeon-plans-ed-miliband-deal-election.html
Nicola is going to keep ambushing Ed from the left. I don't think our Labour-supporting friends quite understand the full horror of how Ed will be skewered on this Morton's fork. It means that, every day, every vote, will sabotage Labour's narrative that they are 'fair' and 'on the side of ordinary people'. To get any budget or other measure through, Ed will either have to give in to Nicola (she'll not be in the least shy about pointing out that the SNP calls the tune), or get the measure through with Tory support (she'll be even less shy about pointing that out).
Meanwhile Ed will be constrained by reality and the financial markets, so won't be able to give in to everything she demands
The point is that, whilst she won't want to bring down a Labour government, at least for a while, she equally won't care the toss of a caber about being on the losing side of a vote which passes with Tory support or abstention, or about chaos and confusion in Westminster. The entire situation is a win-win from her point of view.0 -
Are we done with polls for today or expecting anything else ?0
-
We should just rotate which election system we use for each GE, that'd keep things interesting. FPTP, then STV, AV, PR2, MMP, reinforced PR. It could keep us interested for decades.0
-
AMS seems to be a very productive system. It ensures proportionality (especially the "pure" form in Germany and New Zealand which allows overflow members) but it also allows a party which has genuinely significant support a majority (in most occasions I know the New Zealand exception).asjohnstone said:
In NZ last year under a MMP system, the winning party scored 49%No_Offence_Alan said:
Scotland rather disproves that.Speedy said:
I'm against PR, PR leads to so severe splintering that rarely can the first party exceed 25%.SeanT said:
They'd have to win a referendum first (especially as no such proposal was in anyone's manifesto). We had a referendum on AV, so the principle is established - a change to the voting system requires explicit voter consent (and fair enough).Jonathan said:Wondering if a minoriy govt might introduce PR before a second poll.
And I speak as a convert to the idea of PR. We need it. FPTP is now producing quite perverse results. It is bad for the UK.
In fact it's pretty hard to see a downside to AMS. The "loser list" snipe does not have much traction in Scotland. The effective outcomes of the vote have been pretty representative in Scotland. It allows genuine Independentl outcomes like Margo MacDonald and smaller parties can get a hearing and if they fail, get booted out.0 -
Mr Salmond is a little fat foolish fellow so consumed with his only sudden celebrity that he cant quite beleive his luck on his seeing ugly pudgy face on tv every night. So he thinks he is important, the reality is he will be forgotten when the wind changes.Neil said:
One man's terrorist...TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
It's hard to foresee Salmond occupying a biscuit factory in Edinburgh to further an armed uprising against London rule before going on to fight a guerilla war against a newly independent Scottish government though.
0 -
Hodges will be fine.
1) Ed as PM will give him plenty of ammo. PB Tories will love having hip rip it out of Ed daily.
2) The telegraph will love the endless traffic of Labour supporters going on their website to take the piss out of Dan.0 -
The very same Dan Hodges who lost an eye when he was glassed in a pub for defending a black guy from racist thugs.Grandiose said:
Who?SeanT said:
I met Mr Hodges a couple of years ago, he was nice chap if a bit taciturn, and he admitted that if Labour actually won "my career will be over".kle4 said:
I actually enjoy him to be honest - when he gets away from just harping on the Ed is Crap stuff, he can make some good points and I think he's a decent writer. It's just his prolific output on the same goddamn points about Ed and Labour over and over again that demand skimming of the rest of his stuff.Neil said:
You seem to be reading far too much of Hodges' output than is sensible. I only ever read his stuff when it is posted here and even then I do try to skim over most of it.kle4 said:
I think he has. Every now and then he slips in little pieces of meta-commentary about punditry and what commentators will do when proven wrong, in terms of justifying how they could be so wrong but will continue to make predictions boldly, and that sort of thing, that makes me think he knows he is wrong (or could be wrong at least), but is wedded to his schtick at this point. It's what they pay him for after all.Neil said:
So Hodges has learned nothing from this election.bigjohnowls said:DH slagging Survation now
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago Queensferry, Scotland
One thing I've learnt from this election. He who pays the piper calls Survation.
YouGov. More like the EdLeadsTheNextGov.
I'm guessing that he feels differently now, and he's not the first journalist-pundit to make a total tit of himself (D Aaronovitch: "I will retire if they don't find WMD in Iraq") but he will be devalued. And in the end Getting It Totally Wrong can terminally damage a political writer's career, cf the Life and Times of Anatole Kaletsky.
Makes him a hero in my eyes, he deserves enormous respect for that selfless act.0 -
ELBOW showing phone and internet polls?asjohnstone said:Are we done with polls for today or expecting anything else ?
0 -
No more forecasting websites.kle4 said:We should just rotate which election system we use for each GE, that'd keep things interesting. FPTP, then STV, AV, PR2, MMP, reinforced PR. It could keep us interested for decades.
And with that, another day has ended without much going on.
5 days until we'll have no functioning government until the next election, whenever that may be in a month or 5 years from now.
Goodnight.0 -
Looking forward to it; suspect it'll be a corkerSunil_Prasannan said:
ELBOW showing phone and internet polls?asjohnstone said:Are we done with polls for today or expecting anything else ?
0 -
Nigel
For that yes. doesn't mean you can't pick apart his views afterwards. Hodges is a blairite zombie. He can only see things through one prism.
There is a huge huge silver lining for Tory supporters if Ed does beat Cameron. It will liberate them - and everyone else - from the idea there is one set answer to every question. Ed will have found his own way of winning. And if I wanted the challenge the status quo of society from the right, that would make me happy.0 -
I'm going to stop this week's ELBOW with yesterday's polls (field-work end 30th April), due to Election Day being a Thursday
Cons 0.02% ahead including all 14 polls.
YouGov-only 0.7% Labour lead
Non-YouGov-only 0.8% Tory lead0 -
But...but...but wasn't it a once in a generation shot?SeanT said:
They'd have to win a referendum first (especially as no such proposal was in anyone's manifesto). We had a referendum on AV, so the principle is established - a change to the voting system requires explicit voter consent (and fair enough).Jonathan said:Wondering if a minoriy govt might introduce PR before a second poll.
And I speak as a convert to the idea of PR. We need it. FPTP is now producing quite perverse results. It is bad for the UK.0 -
66 national polls during April - is that a record?0
-
Is there a chance the markets are being influenced by people who have seen postal votes which have been opened?0
-
Yes, Dan will still be employable whatever happens. He writes well.IOS said:Hodges will be fine.
1) Ed as PM will give him plenty of ammo. PB Tories will love having hip rip it out of Ed daily.
2) The telegraph will love the endless traffic of Labour supporters going on their website to take the piss out of Dan.0 -
But 30 of them were the same YouGov stuck like s broken record.Sunil_Prasannan said:66 national polls during April - is that a record?
0 -
I hope you appreciate the irony of you criticizing someone for only seeing things through one prism!IOS said:Nigel
For that yes. doesn't mean you can't pick apart his views afterwards. Hodges is a blairite zombie. He can only see things through one prism.
There is a huge huge silver lining for Tory supporters if Ed does beat Cameron. It will liberate them - and everyone else - from the idea there is one set answer to every question. Ed will have found his own way of winning. And if I wanted the challenge the status quo of society from the right, that would make me happy.0 -
Well perhaps he can go into novel writing. After all he has the family connections that would allow him to keep trying till he gets one rightSeanT said:
I met Mr Hodges a couple of years ago, he was nice chap if a bit taciturn, and he admitted that if Labour actually won "my career will be over".
I'm guessing that he feels differently now, and he's not the first journalist-pundit to make a total tit of himself (D Aaronovitch: "I will retire if they don't find WMD in Iraq") but he will be devalued. And in the end Getting It Totally Wrong can terminally damage a political writer's career, cf the Life and Times of Anatole Kaletsky.
0 -
I see things in far more colour than Dan. Not that these really ever get discussed on PB. Its not a great forum for high level debate0
-
27 actuallyfoxinsoxuk said:
But 30 of them were the same YouGov stuck like s broken record.Sunil_Prasannan said:66 national polls during April - is that a record?
0 -
Faisal Islam @faisalislam 16m16 minutes ago
That Milibrand interview at 938,663 views, and 579,726 for the trailer. more than c4n and newsnight combined...
Past 1 million by tomorrow0 -
I think the final ELBOW should just consist of the final poll done by each pollster.Sunil_Prasannan said:I'm going to stop this week's ELBOW with yesterday's polls (field-work end 30th April), due to Election Day being a Thursday
Cons 0.02% ahead including all 14 polls.
YouGov-only 0.7% Labour lead
Non-YouGov-only 0.8% Tory lead0 -
O/T- how old do you look.
Try this link
http://how-old.net
I came out at 68 whilst my wife is 27. It's a bit depressing really. I must look like my wife's father, or even grandfather. I'm only 2 weeks older in real life.0 -
Same! I'm expecting slight divergence starting to occur in mid-May and then when the YouGov changes kick in for there to be a massive gulf.asjohnstone said:
Looking forward to it; suspect it'll be a corkerSunil_Prasannan said:
ELBOW showing phone and internet polls?asjohnstone said:Are we done with polls for today or expecting anything else ?
0 -
Toby Perkins retweeted
mummikins @mummikins 3m3 minutes ago
Loved the positive and much deserved support for @nengel4ned today on the doorsteps of NEDerbyshire,so encouraging and exciting for May 7th!
nengel4ned is definitely not nigel4england0 -
No. In April 2010:Sunil_Prasannan said:66 national polls during April - is that a record?
YouGov 28
ComRes 12
ICM 8
Angus Reid 6
Harris 6
Opinium 4
Populus 4
PBIX 3
TNS BMRB 3
Mori 2
Total = 760 -
I find the tribal politics both childish and depressing.IOS said:I see things in far more colour than Dan. Not that these really ever get discussed on PB. Its not a great forum for high level debate
I am a Kipper but could find good things to say about all the parties, even Brown who kept us out of the Euro.0 -
I've done it month by month, as the weekly tally of phone polls is usually very sparse. But here are the monthly plots of Labour % leads - official ELBOW inc. everyone, Phone-only, and online-only:asjohnstone said:
Looking forward to it; suspect it'll be a corkerSunil_Prasannan said:
ELBOW showing phone and internet polls?asjohnstone said:Are we done with polls for today or expecting anything else ?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5942646078852546570 -
Just out of interest, what is the shortest possible period between Friday morning and another GE being called? Right now it's looking so dysfunctional (potentially w/ Con+LD = Lab+SNP) that I could envisage an almost immediate new election. (Where hopefully the Blues' money will shine through
) 0 -
LOL!bigjohnowls said:Toby Perkins retweeted
mummikins @mummikins 3m3 minutes ago
Loved the positive and much deserved support for @nengel4ned today on the doorsteps of NEDerbyshire,so encouraging and exciting for May 7th!
nengel4ned is definitely not nigel4england0 -
They're going after a Second Referendum (the Dyle) while we are aiming to destroy them with FTPA (the Ardennes) ?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, The Dyle Plan.Casino_Royale said:
Does it involve the Waffen Yes-Yes and the Yestapo?TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't worry, I've got another thread mostly written comparing the Nats to the NazisIshmael_X said:
Not really incendiary enough, try Nelson Mandela (both questions).TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
(Well the Unionists to the French in the lead up to the 1940s)
So, the question is who will be Hitler, Sturgeon or Salmond and utter
"I could have wept for joy, they had fallen into the trap"0 -
Bullguard is telling me it's a malicious site...tyson said:O/T- how old do you look.
Try this link
http://how-old.net0 -
Crikey!david_herdson said:
No. In April 2010:Sunil_Prasannan said:66 national polls during April - is that a record?
YouGov 28
ComRes 12
ICM 8
Angus Reid 6
Harris 6
Opinium 4
Populus 4
PBIX 3
TNS BMRB 3
Mori 2
Total = 76
Some blasts from the past there - Angus-Reid, BPIX, Harris!0 -
One example - Trident.MikeL said:
Why would Con support the SNP amendment?SeanT said:
No, the SNP will amend legislation to make it more "progressive" (and more favourable to Scotland) and then when Labour refuse, they'll vote it down.MikeL said:I actually don't think Miliband will do deals with the SNP.
Think how closely the media will be looking at him. They'll jump on anytime they even see Lab speaking to the SNP.
If Lab introduces a policy in line with SNP rather than Lab manifesto, media will go beserk. Not just the Murdoch papers - all media, including TV.
So I think Miliband will just play it very, very straight. He'll follow the Lab manifesto precisely and dare the SNP to vote against. Which they won't.
So Miliband will be forced to reach an accommodation, or, if you like, a "deal".
OK, they might try and cause a bit of trouble but I suspect the result will be that only straightforward stuff goes through.
Remember even if a Bill is lost, the Government won't fall.
SNP amendment calls for the new boats to be built on the Clyde and Devonport. Tory and SNP support passes amendment. Labour now have a Trident bill which will kill them in Barrow.0 -
Wow, so the phones have been swinging back to Con at a percent a month. Does it look like it's coming from Lab declining, Con increasing or a balance?Sunil_Prasannan said:
I've done it month by month, as the weekly tally of phone polls is usually very sparse. But here are the monthly plots of Labour & leads - official ELBOW inc. everyone, Phone-only, and online-only:asjohnstone said:
Looking forward to it; suspect it'll be a corkerSunil_Prasannan said:
ELBOW showing phone and internet polls?asjohnstone said:Are we done with polls for today or expecting anything else ?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594264607885254657
(Also in the future (the autumn election) will the ELBOW down weight YouGov's daily polls to twice weekly oe?) 0 -
The AV referendum is a good example of why referenda are a bad form of decision making. The question was not well drafted (I would have supported STV or even a Holyrood type system, but not AV). The campaign rapidly evolved into two camps who were attempting to turn it into a stick for short term advantage. The Yes campaign was basically "you will never have another Con government" and the No campaign was "punish the LibDems for their treachery".sarissa said:
But...but...but wasn't it a once in a generation shot?SeanT said:
They'd have to win a referendum first (especially as no such proposal was in anyone's manifesto). We had a referendum on AV, so the principle is established - a change to the voting system requires explicit voter consent (and fair enough).Jonathan said:Wondering if a minoriy govt might introduce PR before a second poll.
And I speak as a convert to the idea of PR. We need it. FPTP is now producing quite perverse results. It is bad for the UK.
There was little of the intelligent discussion that we sometimes get in parliament. A Brexit referendum will be the same. More heat than light and voting would depend more on the midterm popularity of Cameron than the merits or otherwise of the EU.0 -
Chris Deerin
Those citing his depressing tweets need to be aware that this individual is far more unionist pretendy politician than any sort of journalist these days.0 -
PC would take Labour/SNP over the line. Never forget to include Plaid with the SNP.foxinsoxuk said:If our projected outcome for a hung parliament is Con 290, Lab 270, SNP 50 and LD 25 etc then we with have a cross party govt of some sort.
I don't see how PR would break the deadlock. More likely make it permanent.0 -
I knew they were letting us down. Bunch of slackers.david_herdson said:
No. In April 2010:Sunil_Prasannan said:66 national polls during April - is that a record?
YouGov 28
ComRes 12
ICM 8
Angus Reid 6
Harris 6
Opinium 4
Populus 4
PBIX 3
TNS BMRB 3
Mori 2
Total = 76
0 -
Speedy Germany basically has the Holyrood system, ie constituency vote then list vote, Japan is probably the same, I have no problem with that and maintaining the constituency link, as long as there is a list element that better reflects voteshare in seats
Sunil The US has primaries, India has PR for the upper house0 -
What happened to Angus Reid/Harris?david_herdson said:
No. In April 2010:Sunil_Prasannan said:66 national polls during April - is that a record?
YouGov 28
ComRes 12
ICM 8
Angus Reid 6
Harris 6
Opinium 4
Populus 4
PBIX 3
TNS BMRB 3
Mori 2
Total = 760 -
I think the noble Lord has taken up a fair chunk of polling industry resource!david_herdson said:
No. In April 2010:Sunil_Prasannan said:66 national polls during April - is that a record?
YouGov 28
ComRes 12
ICM 8
Angus Reid 6
Harris 6
Opinium 4
Populus 4
PBIX 3
TNS BMRB 3
Mori 2
Total = 760 -
Still not a government that could last.Dair said:
PC would take Labour/SNP over the line. Never forget to include Plaid with the SNP.foxinsoxuk said:If our projected outcome for a hung parliament is Con 290, Lab 270, SNP 50 and LD 25 etc then we with have a cross party govt of some sort.
I don't see how PR would break the deadlock. More likely make it permanent.0 -
Wow! Bullguard is still in business? That's impressive.RodCrosby said:
Bullguard is telling me it's a malicious site...tyson said:O/T- how old do you look.
Try this link
http://how-old.net
I remember trying and uninstalling their shite software almost 10 years ago.0 -
Election Late Show has a very interesting worm on Ed's anti-SNP rhetoric.
Neutral in S England.
Negative in Midlands.
Very Negative in Scotland.0 -
Don't take this as a dig, because I'm glad you contribute to this site, but I don't think I've ever seen you attempt to engage in high level debate. (Making an aside about "algorithms" once doesn't cut it.) And since you're a well-informed chap, it'd actually be far more interesting than the snarks you generally treat readers here to. This place benefits from having some people, of various political hues, who have a great ear (or typing hand) for the snide aside, but (a) there's enough of them already, (b) it should probably be left to those who are very very good at it, and (c) some meatier debate would be more than welcome on here.IOS said:I see things in far more colour than Dan. Not that these really ever get discussed on PB. Its not a great forum for high level debate
There's enough politcal apathetics, moderates, eclectics and left-wingers on here you could seriously discuss the stuff that matters to you with. If right-wingers just wind you up so much that you can't meaningfully engage with them, then you're perfectly at liberty to ignore them. I can't recognise the characterisation of PB as a place where no serious debate takes place.0 -
True, the Telegraph hasn't sacked AEP yet despite his 5 years of warning of the euro collapsingTissue_Price said:
Yes, Dan will still be employable whatever happens. He writes well.IOS said:Hodges will be fine.
1) Ed as PM will give him plenty of ammo. PB Tories will love having hip rip it out of Ed daily.
2) The telegraph will love the endless traffic of Labour supporters going on their website to take the piss out of Dan.0 -
I rate them. Never had a virus in 6 years...GeoffM said:
Wow! Bullguard is still in business? That's impressive.RodCrosby said:
Bullguard is telling me it's a malicious site...tyson said:O/T- how old do you look.
Try this link
http://how-old.net
I remember trying and uninstalling their shite software almost 10 years ago.0 -
foxinsoxuk said:
I thought that de Valeras faction of the IRA waged the Irish Civil War sortly arfter independence and murdered Michael Collins amongst others.EPG said:
A terrorist uses terror. I doubt anyone was ever terrified of either man.TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
For all his faults Salmond is a better man.foxinsoxuk said:
I thought that de Valeras faction of the IRA waged the Irish Civil War sortly arfter independence and murdered Michael Collins amongst others.EPG said:
A terrorist uses terror. I doubt anyone was ever terrified of either man.TheScreamingEagles said:I know this is heavy stuff for a Friday night.
But would I be wrong to write in a thread to
1) Call Éamon de Valera a terrorist?
2) Compare Alex Salmond to Éamon de Valera?
For all his faults Salmond is a better man.
And I thought that Dev more or less kept out of the fighting. Wasn't he regarded as a liability at the Easter Rising?
He is a surprisingly forgotten figure in Ireland today.
0 -
I think it's mostly because no-one actually understands AEP. So they think that he might be clever rather than unintelligible and wrong.asjohnstone said:
True, the Telegraph hasn't sacked AEP yet despite his 5 years of warning of the euro collapsingTissue_Price said:
Yes, Dan will still be employable whatever happens. He writes well.IOS said:Hodges will be fine.
1) Ed as PM will give him plenty of ammo. PB Tories will love having hip rip it out of Ed daily.
2) The telegraph will love the endless traffic of Labour supporters going on their website to take the piss out of Dan.0 -
It looks some degree of Con up/Lab down, but also like it's actually minor parties losing out.Chameleon said:
Wow, so the phones have been swinging back to Con at a percent a month. Does it look like it's coming from Lab declining, Con increasing or a balance?Sunil_Prasannan said:
I've done it month by month, as the weekly tally of phone polls is usually very sparse. But here are the monthly plots of Labour & leads - official ELBOW inc. everyone, Phone-only, and online-only:asjohnstone said:
Looking forward to it; suspect it'll be a corkerSunil_Prasannan said:
ELBOW showing phone and internet polls?asjohnstone said:Are we done with polls for today or expecting anything else ?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594264607885254657
(Also in the future (the autumn election) will the ELBOW down weight YouGov's daily polls to twice weekly oe?)
Eg. March monthly Phone-ELBOW:
Con 34.31
Lab 32.67
UKIP 12.22
LD 7.81
Grn 6.30
April monthly phone-ELBOW:
Con 34.89
Lab 32.49
UKIP 10.92
LD 8.93
Grn 5.88
0 -
I had McAfee on my previous laptop but still got hit with the Crypto Locker virus, when I complained they ignored me.RodCrosby said:
I rate them. Never had a virus in 6 years...GeoffM said:
Wow! Bullguard is still in business? That's impressive.RodCrosby said:
Bullguard is telling me it's a malicious site...tyson said:O/T- how old do you look.
Try this link
http://how-old.net
I remember trying and uninstalling their shite software almost 10 years ago.
I use Malwarebytes now and haven't had a problem, touch wood.0 -
My wife took it from the Daily Mail lead site. That probably makes it highly malicious.RodCrosby said:
Bullguard is telling me it's a malicious site...tyson said:O/T- how old do you look.
Try this link
http://how-old.net
0 -
There's a lot of tribality about on PB, but at least at the moment it's easy enough to scroll through the posts and filter it out. And I don't think the levels of tribal behaviour here are any worse than they were in 2010, say. There are enough more multifaceted posters around to keep things interesting, and even some of the more one-eyed ones can be worth listening to if they happen to possess deep professional or specialist knowledge about a particular field of discussion. A lot of the arguments that take place here are rather pointless, and the bad-tempered ones are particularly disappointing since nobody's mind is going to be changed by them, but it only takes a little self-discipline to avoid Somebody Is Wrong On The Internet Syndrome.nigel4england said:
I find the tribal politics both childish and depressing.IOS said:I see things in far more colour than Dan. Not that these really ever get discussed on PB. Its not a great forum for high level debate
I am a Kipper but could find good things to say about all the parties, even Brown who kept us out of the Euro.0 -
Germany has the NZ system - it allows overspill seats.HYUFD said:Speedy Germany basically has the Holyrood system, ie constituency vote then list vote, Japan is probably the same, I have no problem with that and maintaining the constituency link, as long as there is a list element that better reflects voteshare in seats
Sunil The US has primaries, India has PR for the upper house0 -
Con Maj 8.4-8.60
-
We could have a referendum, without specifying a system, asking the electorate the following questionsfoxinsoxuk said:
The AV referendum is a good example of why referenda are a bad form of decision making. The question was not well drafted (I would have supported STV or even a Holyrood type system, but not AV). The campaign rapidly evolved into two camps who were attempting to turn it into a stick for short term advantage. The Yes campaign was basically "you will never have another Con government" and the No campaign was "punish the LibDems for their treachery".sarissa said:
But...but...but wasn't it a once in a generation shot?SeanT said:
They'd have to win a referendum first (especially as no such proposal was in anyone's manifesto). We had a referendum on AV, so the principle is established - a change to the voting system requires explicit voter consent (and fair enough).Jonathan said:Wondering if a minoriy govt might introduce PR before a second poll.
And I speak as a convert to the idea of PR. We need it. FPTP is now producing quite perverse results. It is bad for the UK.
There was little of the intelligent discussion that we sometimes get in parliament. A Brexit referendum will be the same. More heat than light and voting would depend more on the midterm popularity of Cameron than the merits or otherwise of the EU.
A. Do you want a system which produces a majority
i) always, however few votes the leading party has
ii) sometimes, if a party has a clear lead and significant support
iii) rarely, unless a party managed to get 50% of the votes
B. Do you want a system in which
i) you have a choice of candidate both within and between parties
ii) you have to vote for the one candidate your party nominates (or a fixed list of candidates)
maybe a couple more questions.
Then the psephologists could go away and design a system...0 -
I think that that was the consensus of expectations in 2014. UKIP & Green squeeze, LD & Con recovery.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Eg. March monthly Phone-ELBOW:
Con 34.31
Lab 32.67
UKIP 12.22
LD 7.81
Grn 6.30
April monthly phone-ELBOW:
Con 34.89
Lab 32.49
UKIP 10.92
LD 8.93
Grn 5.880 -
Rod
That would be a very very good idea. Maybe - as its not a binding vote - you could try out some online voting.0
