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Is this a constituency poll or just an aggregate?0
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Talking about MoE here...it could go any which way.0
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Hmm. Passable for Labour but not great.0
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Farage today addresses immigration from the African continent,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTwOap7ohc40 -
I do wish comres wouldnt bother with this. Pretty much useless in determining anything.0
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In light of the Sheffield Hallam poll and those showing Labour ahead in the marginals, should we be expecting the Conservatives to be talking up the achievements of the Coalition over the past 5 years in an effort to woo the Lib Dems?0
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If you aren't on it already, Labour 226-250 band is a fantastic bet.0
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Gloucester
Kingswood
Pudsey
South Swindon
Brighton Kemptown
Worcester
Loughborough
Warwick and Leamington
Elmet and Rothwell
Pendle
Are all holds in this lot I reckon.0 -
What I find curious is that neither the Tories nor the Lib Dems have used the "there's no money left" note left by Liam Byrne...or is that being kept for the last week? If ever there was an example of Labour's economic mis-management then that was it!0
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So Lab slightly ahead overall by this aggregate poll but of course with Broxtowe landsliding to Labour, the nature of the aggregate beast surely means the Tories must be on track to retain the other 49....
More seriously, this aggregation doesn't tell us if 40 or 10 are going red-blue as those most marginal might be swininging a lot more than those at the less marginal end...0 -
It was helpful the way the constituency list was in alphabetical order. *cough*0
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Labour start off at 226 in the Con-Lab battle imo, 40 losses to the SNP and 10 gains from the Lib Dems.
36 gains leaves them with 262 seats. Add SNP 58 to that and parliament is very, very well hung.0 -
"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Is it?
Lab: 258 - 1 Rspct - 41 SNP - 0 UKIP + 43 Tory + 9 LD = 268
Con: 306 - 3 UKIP - 43 Lab + 12 LD = 272
I find the Tories just ahead.
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.0 -
So we're heading for a draw, and no viable 2 party coalition. uuurrrgh0
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This seems to agree exactly with the swing in South Swindon on the previous thread. As I said there it is now very touch and go who is the largest party but there is little doubt who will be able to command a majority in Parliament: Ed Miliband.
If we make the conservative (!) assumption the SNP have 57 seats and that Labour will be supported by the 3 SDLPs then 263 is probably enough for Ed. That means he need 45 gains in England and Wales to offset 41 losses in Scotland and get to the magic number. It is close but very likely he will achieve that.0 -
I doubt it'll be 43 losses tbh.Casino_Royale said:"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Is it?
Lab: 258 - 1 Rspct - 41 SNP - 0 UKIP + 43 Tory + 9 LD = 268
Con: 306 - 3 UKIP - 43 Lab + 12 LD = 272
I find the Tories just ahead.
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.0 -
As a rule, I don't like to pick at unweighted numbers but the downweighting of 2010 Cons might be interesting - possible false recall being an issue?0
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ComRes says Labour would win 40 of the 50 seats, not 43 as per thread article.0
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Do Ilford North! Do Ilford North!
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Well no, because he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP. So how can he 'command a majority'? Impossible.DavidL said:This seems to agree exactly with the swing in South Swindon on the previous thread. As I said there it is now very touch and go who is the largest party but there is little doubt who will be able to command a majority in Parliament: Ed Miliband.
If we make the conservative (!) assumption the SNP have 57 seats and that Labour will be supported by the 3 SDLPs then 263 is probably enough for Ed. That means he need 45 gains in England and Wales to offset 41 losses in Scotland and get to the magic number. It is close but very likely he will achieve that.
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Is there no previous version of this poll to compare to?0
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Hi Olliebear.olliebear said:
Well no, because he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP. So how can he 'command a majority'? Impossible.DavidL said:This seems to agree exactly with the swing in South Swindon on the previous thread. As I said there it is now very touch and go who is the largest party but there is little doubt who will be able to command a majority in Parliament: Ed Miliband.
If we make the conservative (!) assumption the SNP have 57 seats and that Labour will be supported by the 3 SDLPs then 263 is probably enough for Ed. That means he need 45 gains in England and Wales to offset 41 losses in Scotland and get to the magic number. It is close but very likely he will achieve that.
Minority Gov't.0 -
Because the SNP have said they will back him. He doesn't need a formal deal. Of course he may not have a majority on every issue and there may be some prices even Ed is not willing to pay but his Queens speech will pass.olliebear said:
Well no, because he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP. So how can he 'command a majority'? Impossible.DavidL said:This seems to agree exactly with the swing in South Swindon on the previous thread. As I said there it is now very touch and go who is the largest party but there is little doubt who will be able to command a majority in Parliament: Ed Miliband.
If we make the conservative (!) assumption the SNP have 57 seats and that Labour will be supported by the 3 SDLPs then 263 is probably enough for Ed. That means he need 45 gains in England and Wales to offset 41 losses in Scotland and get to the magic number. It is close but very likely he will achieve that.0 -
Re the Hull East mess up with ballot papers mentioned in an earlier thread . The council has announced that replacement ballot papers ( 484 ) are being sent out .0
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The last time I looked a majority government isn't the same as a minority one. It's one of those little details I'm a stickler for.Pulpstar said:
Hi Olliebear.olliebear said:
Well no, because he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP. So how can he 'command a majority'? Impossible.DavidL said:This seems to agree exactly with the swing in South Swindon on the previous thread. As I said there it is now very touch and go who is the largest party but there is little doubt who will be able to command a majority in Parliament: Ed Miliband.
If we make the conservative (!) assumption the SNP have 57 seats and that Labour will be supported by the 3 SDLPs then 263 is probably enough for Ed. That means he need 45 gains in England and Wales to offset 41 losses in Scotland and get to the magic number. It is close but very likely he will achieve that.
Minority Gov't.
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Not too long ago there was another marginal poll which put Labour much further ahead:
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-02-13/itv-news-index-poll-reveals-labour-lead-in-crucial-marginal-seats/
But the metholodogy seems to be different. 40 marginal seats not 50.0 -
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).Chris123 said:ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?0 -
"Command a majority" is not the same as "Majority Gov't" it just means he can get into power with a Queen Speech.olliebear said:
The last time I looked a majority government isn't the same as a minority one. It's one of those little details I'm a stickler for.Pulpstar said:
Hi Olliebear.olliebear said:
Well no, because he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP. So how can he 'command a majority'? Impossible.DavidL said:This seems to agree exactly with the swing in South Swindon on the previous thread. As I said there it is now very touch and go who is the largest party but there is little doubt who will be able to command a majority in Parliament: Ed Miliband.
If we make the conservative (!) assumption the SNP have 57 seats and that Labour will be supported by the 3 SDLPs then 263 is probably enough for Ed. That means he need 45 gains in England and Wales to offset 41 losses in Scotland and get to the magic number. It is close but very likely he will achieve that.
Minority Gov't.0 -
Right - so it's a supply arrangement. That's far from 'commanding a majority'.DavidL said:
Because the SNP have said they will back him. He doesn't need a formal deal. Of course he may not have a majority on every issue and there may be some prices even Ed is not willing to pay but his Queens speech will pass.olliebear said:
Well no, because he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP. So how can he 'command a majority'? Impossible.DavidL said:This seems to agree exactly with the swing in South Swindon on the previous thread. As I said there it is now very touch and go who is the largest party but there is little doubt who will be able to command a majority in Parliament: Ed Miliband.
If we make the conservative (!) assumption the SNP have 57 seats and that Labour will be supported by the 3 SDLPs then 263 is probably enough for Ed. That means he need 45 gains in England and Wales to offset 41 losses in Scotland and get to the magic number. It is close but very likely he will achieve that.
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It's been used - Danny Alexander wrote a reply to Liam Byrne recently as a media stunt - but it's pretty old news so obviously doesn't get much attention and would be easy for people to miss it.TheKrakenAwakes said:What I find curious is that neither the Tories nor the Lib Dems have used the "there's no money left" note left by Liam Byrne...or is that being kept for the last week? If ever there was an example of Labour's economic mis-management then that was it!
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It'll be remarkable if Miliband doesn't become PM - he basically has EVERYTHING in his favour.0
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Kingswood will be Tory hold. Bristol West Labour likely possible green.0
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Blimey so Labour 40 vs Tory 31 in feb 2015 is now 40 vs 37Chris123 said:Not too long ago there was another marginal poll which put Labour much further ahead:
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-02-13/itv-news-index-poll-reveals-labour-lead-in-crucial-marginal-seats/
But the metholodogy seems to be different. 40 marginal seats not 50.
Just by adding another 10 marginal seats in to the mix...
Hmm.............0 -
Will the Labour party back him?DavidL said:
Because the SNP have said they will back him. He doesn't need a formal deal. Of course he may not have a majority on every issue and there may be some prices even Ed is not willing to pay but his Queens speech will pass.olliebear said:
Well no, because he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP. So how can he 'command a majority'? Impossible.DavidL said:This seems to agree exactly with the swing in South Swindon on the previous thread. As I said there it is now very touch and go who is the largest party but there is little doubt who will be able to command a majority in Parliament: Ed Miliband.
If we make the conservative (!) assumption the SNP have 57 seats and that Labour will be supported by the 3 SDLPs then 263 is probably enough for Ed. That means he need 45 gains in England and Wales to offset 41 losses in Scotland and get to the magic number. It is close but very likely he will achieve that.0 -
Whether it is 40 or 43 is not particularly important. I think Labour will win less than 40 from this selection. However, Labour will pick up a few from beyond the 50 seats, because in some seats the swing will be a lot higher.
In effect, is it giving us a final tally much different from the SPIN central spread which is 285 - 270 ?
I am assuming 54 SNP seats, 4 Labour, 1 LD in Scotland. No Tories.
FPT: Sheffield, Hallam. Who would have thought this was once a Tory seat for many, many years. Am I correct that Labour has never won this seat ?
And, Clegg is still thinking of doing a coalition with the Tories. The man is so out of touch.
It is sad that a party with a radical agenda has come to this. Playing second fiddle to the Tories.0 -
No, its not. It makes him PM and gives him a majority for votes of confidence. And it makes Cameron history.olliebear said:
Right - so it's a supply arrangement. That's far from 'commanding a majority'.DavidL said:
Because the SNP have said they will back him. He doesn't need a formal deal. Of course he may not have a majority on every issue and there may be some prices even Ed is not willing to pay but his Queens speech will pass.olliebear said:
Well no, because he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP. So how can he 'command a majority'? Impossible.DavidL said:This seems to agree exactly with the swing in South Swindon on the previous thread. As I said there it is now very touch and go who is the largest party but there is little doubt who will be able to command a majority in Parliament: Ed Miliband.
If we make the conservative (!) assumption the SNP have 57 seats and that Labour will be supported by the 3 SDLPs then 263 is probably enough for Ed. That means he need 45 gains in England and Wales to offset 41 losses in Scotland and get to the magic number. It is close but very likely he will achieve that.
The tories need a late swing of a couple of percent in England and Wales to prevent this. Its not impossible but the hour is getting late.0 -
This kind of polling is useless. I would expect a large swing in the north and next to no swing in south, and that will be aggregated out.0
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That poll was 25 Con seats and 15 Lab ones.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Blimey so Labour 40 vs Tory 31 in feb 2015 is now 40 vs 37Chris123 said:Not too long ago there was another marginal poll which put Labour much further ahead:
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-02-13/itv-news-index-poll-reveals-labour-lead-in-crucial-marginal-seats/
But the metholodogy seems to be different. 40 marginal seats not 50.
Just by adding another 10 marginal seats in to the mix...
Hmm.............
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-marginal-seats-poll/0 -
Certainty of Vote among UKIP (68%), LD (35%) and Green (46%) is too low.
These people are going to swing.
Worried about the SNP - UKIP 73% and LD 75%.0 -
A direct swing of 3.5% from Tory to Labour would see the Tories ahead on voteshare on about 33.5% to Labour's 32.5%, if the Tories win more LD seats than Labour do they could still be largest party, especially as there are more Tory-LD marginals than Labour-LD and adding in Labour's Scottish collapse0
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http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/
In order to form a Government, a party must be able to command a majority in the House of Commons on votes of confidence and supply. This majority can include support from other political parties, whether or not there is a formal coalition arrangement.
In a situation of no overall control the Government in power before the General Election gets the first chance at creating a government. If they cannot do so, the Prime Minister will resign.0 -
Labour will win about 12 - 14 from the Liberals. 40- 44 is about right but not necessarily from this selection.Pulpstar said:
I doubt it'll be 43 losses tbh.Casino_Royale said:"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Is it?
Lab: 258 - 1 Rspct - 41 SNP - 0 UKIP + 43 Tory + 9 LD = 268
Con: 306 - 3 UKIP - 43 Lab + 12 LD = 272
I find the Tories just ahead.
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.0 -
Probably. The part of the party who would have fought such an understanding tooth and nail, the SLAB MPs, will barely exist on current polling.Tissue_Price said:
Will the Labour party back him?DavidL said:
Because the SNP have said they will back him. He doesn't need a formal deal. Of course he may not have a majority on every issue and there may be some prices even Ed is not willing to pay but his Queens speech will pass.olliebear said:
Well no, because he's ruled out a coalition with the SNP. So how can he 'command a majority'? Impossible.DavidL said:This seems to agree exactly with the swing in South Swindon on the previous thread. As I said there it is now very touch and go who is the largest party but there is little doubt who will be able to command a majority in Parliament: Ed Miliband.
If we make the conservative (!) assumption the SNP have 57 seats and that Labour will be supported by the 3 SDLPs then 263 is probably enough for Ed. That means he need 45 gains in England and Wales to offset 41 losses in Scotland and get to the magic number. It is close but very likely he will achieve that.
Whether this will be a stable government is of course an entirely different matter.0 -
Undoubtedly Labour have been losing ground even if the polls can't be compared 1:1.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Blimey so Labour 40 vs Tory 31 in feb 2015 is now 40 vs 37Chris123 said:Not too long ago there was another marginal poll which put Labour much further ahead:
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-02-13/itv-news-index-poll-reveals-labour-lead-in-crucial-marginal-seats/
But the metholodogy seems to be different. 40 marginal seats not 50.
Just by adding another 10 marginal seats in to the mix...
Hmm.............
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Yes, that suits Ed.Nemtynakht said:This kind of polling is useless. I would expect a large swing in the north and next to no swing in south, and that will be aggregated out.
NW swing will be largest.
Hove, Brighton and Hastings are the only "South" marginals, Kingswood is in the golden SW area for the CONs where Labour are fortunate not to have too many realistic CON-LAB marginals.0 -
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/culturehousedaily/2015/04/francine-prose-reminds-us-why-so-many-novelists-are-so-stupid/
A very good article - in response to a particularly repellent article written in the Guardian by Francine Prose - and posted here yesterday by SeanT.
The last paragraph nails it -
"Speaking for myself, the idea that one is either ‘for us or against us’ when the subject being discussed is the brutal machine-gunning of innocent journalists seems pretty straightforward. I am for us and against those who are against us. I am for those with the courage to write and draw what they think, no matter the risks. I am for those who make a stand for real liberalism and freedom of expression. I am for the dead.
And I am against Francine Prose and all who think like her. Shame on them. Shame on them all."
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On these numbers I think they would be the largest party. But Ed would be PM.HYUFD said:A direct swing of 3.5% from Tory to Labour would see the Tories ahead on voteshare on about 33.5% to Labour's 32.5%, if the Tories win more LD seats than Labour do they could still be largest party, especially as there are more Tory-LD marginals than Labour-LD and adding in Labour's Scottish collapse
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Very very tight.surbiton said:
3 SDLP, 3/4 PC, 1 GRN ?Pulpstar said:Labour start off at 226 in the Con-Lab battle imo, 40 losses to the SNP and 10 gains from the Lib Dems.
36 gains leaves them with 262 seats. Add SNP 58 to that and parliament is very, very well hung.
Lab 226-250 band is a great bet for Labour having a bad night though.0 -
Pulpstar Swindon is in the SW and Ashcroft's poll there this morning has the Tories ahead, the London suburbs and Midlands make up the bulk of marginals Labour needs for largest party0
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Of course we see now why a Con minority Queens speech will have a law for preventing tax rises and other such bear traps.Pulpstar said:http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/
In order to form a Government, a party must be able to command a majority in the House of Commons on votes of confidence and supply. This majority can include support from other political parties, whether or not there is a formal coalition arrangement.
In a situation of no overall control the Government in power before the General Election gets the first chance at creating a government. If they cannot do so, the Prime Minister will resign.
The axis of marxism (north and south branches) will have to vote that down...0 -
Todays COMRES marginals poll EICIPM0
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Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.Dair said:
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).Chris123 said:ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?0 -
So really this poll is pretty hopeless then as not even a comparable to look at to see any movement, which is what we've been told to look for recently.Tissue_Price said:
That poll was 25 Con seats and 15 Lab ones.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Blimey so Labour 40 vs Tory 31 in feb 2015 is now 40 vs 37Chris123 said:Not too long ago there was another marginal poll which put Labour much further ahead:
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-02-13/itv-news-index-poll-reveals-labour-lead-in-crucial-marginal-seats/
But the metholodogy seems to be different. 40 marginal seats not 50.
Just by adding another 10 marginal seats in to the mix...
Hmm.............
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-marginal-seats-poll/0 -
He doesn't need to, Sunil. He can just ask you.Sunil_Prasannan said:Do Ilford North! Do Ilford North!
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Its when ballot boxes go missing we start to worry. A ballot paper is no good unless it gets into the box.MarkSenior said:Re the Hull East mess up with ballot papers mentioned in an earlier thread . The council has announced that replacement ballot papers ( 484 ) are being sent out .
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My most recent assessment of Labour gains was as follows:HYUFD said:Pulpstar Swindon is in the SW and Ashcroft's poll there this morning has the Tories ahead, the London suburbs and Midlands make up the bulk of marginals Labour needs for largest party
6 London (Hendon, Brentford Isleworth, Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central)
8 NW (Lancaster, Fleetwood, Chester, Bury North, Wirral West, Morecambe, Warrington South)
3 East (Waveney, Bedford, Ipswich)
2 Yorkshire Humber (Dewsbury, Keighley)
3 West Mids (Wolves SW, North Warks, Nuneaton)
2 SW (Plymouth, Stroud)
2 SE (Hastings, Hove)
6 East Mids (Erewash, Amber Valley, Sherwood, Lincoln, Amber Valley, Broxtowe)
Lib-Lab
Bradford East
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Hornsey and Wood Green
Leeds North West or Hallam or Yardley, one of the three.
Bristol West0 -
True, except I haven't really decided yet!Peter_the_Punter said:
He doesn't need to, Sunil. He can just ask you.Sunil_Prasannan said:Do Ilford North! Do Ilford North!
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Con lead on spreads has jumped to 19...0
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#huzzahbigjohnowls said:Todays COMRES marginals poll EICIPM
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Pulpstar said:
Labour start off at 226 in the Con-Lab battle imo, 40 losses to the SNP and 10 gains from the Lib Dems.
36 gains leaves them with 262 seats. Add SNP 58 to that and parliament is very, very well hung.
I think you are wildly optimistic on Labour gains from the LibDems, and I speak as someone who is betting on them being hammered.surbiton said:
Labour will win about 12 - 14 from the Liberals. 40- 44 is about right but not necessarily from this selection.Pulpstar said:
I doubt it'll be 43 losses tbh.Casino_Royale said:"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Is it?
Lab: 258 - 1 Rspct - 41 SNP - 0 UKIP + 43 Tory + 9 LD = 268
Con: 306 - 3 UKIP - 43 Lab + 12 LD = 272
I find the Tories just ahead.
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.
After the obvious six seats, you get to:
Birmingham Yardley
Brent East
Hornsey & Wood Green
And
Cardiff Central
Of which I reckon at least one (and probably two) will be held.
Then it's Sheffield Hallam, Cambridge and Southwark. And I suspect the LibDems will hold all of these. To get 14, you need all of these, and one more.0 -
Depressing reading, but no surprise - it confirms what has been obvious for months, that the Tories will lose large numbers of marginal seats to Labour, and Ed will become PM.
And as we know, the reason for this is not a great surge back to Labour. It's UKIP siphoning off the nuttier element of the Tory core. Farage is the man who is screwing the Tories right royally and making it impossible for them to win the GE. As I keep saying.
For me, it's all over - and probably never really got started as a contest. The Tories never really bothered to warn voters of what UKIP will do to the result, other than the "wake up with Ed" comment last autumn which seems to have been ditched even though it was one surefire election-survival weapon Cameron has seemed strangely unwilling to deploy.0 -
Does anyone want to aggregate the vote share predictions in these seats from election forecast and see how they compare to this poll?
Reckon that would be a good way to see how this poll fits in.0 -
People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.OblitusSumMe said:
Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.Dair said:
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).Chris123 said:ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?
It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.
That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).
If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.0 -
In retrospect the coalition should have campaigned in this election as a coalition.
They should have agreed not to stand a candidate where their coalition partner had an extant MP and to work in the constituency for the election of their partner party.0 -
I suspect Berwickshire will be won by either Conservatives or the LibDems.surbiton said:Whether it is 40 or 43 is not particularly important. I think Labour will win less than 40 from this selection. However, Labour will pick up a few from beyond the 50 seats, because in some seats the swing will be a lot higher.
In effect, is it giving us a final tally much different from the SPIN central spread which is 285 - 270 ?
I am assuming 54 SNP seats, 4 Labour, 1 LD in Scotland. No Tories.
FPT: Sheffield, Hallam. Who would have thought this was once a Tory seat for many, many years. Am I correct that Labour has never won this seat ?
And, Clegg is still thinking of doing a coalition with the Tories. The man is so out of touch.
It is sad that a party with a radical agenda has come to this. Playing second fiddle to the Tories.0 -
"The choice facing the nation is between two totally different ways of life. And what a prize we have to fight for: no less than the chance to banish from our land the dark, divisive clouds of Marxist socialism and bring together men and women from all walks of life who share a belief in freedom."TGOHF said:
Of course we see now why a Con minority Queens speech will have a law for preventing tax rises and other such bear traps.Pulpstar said:http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/
In order to form a Government, a party must be able to command a majority in the House of Commons on votes of confidence and supply. This majority can include support from other political parties, whether or not there is a formal coalition arrangement.
In a situation of no overall control the Government in power before the General Election gets the first chance at creating a government. If they cannot do so, the Prime Minister will resign.
The axis of marxism (north and south branches) will have to vote that down...0 -
Because the idea of a law to prevent tax increases is not in the Conservative manifesto, the House of Lords is entitled to vote it down.TGOHF said:
Of course we see now why a Con minority Queens speech will have a law for preventing tax rises and other such bear traps.Pulpstar said:http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/
In order to form a Government, a party must be able to command a majority in the House of Commons on votes of confidence and supply. This majority can include support from other political parties, whether or not there is a formal coalition arrangement.
In a situation of no overall control the Government in power before the General Election gets the first chance at creating a government. If they cannot do so, the Prime Minister will resign.
The axis of marxism (north and south branches) will have to vote that down...0 -
The Liberals have tried this in the past.David_Evershed said:In retrospect the coalition should have campaigned in this election as a coalition.
They should have agreed not to stand a candidate where their coalition partner had an extant MP and to work in the constituency for the election of their partner party.
It did not work out well for their long term prospects.0 -
I reckon about 30 +/4 seats. I have Amber Valley, Lincoln, Brighton Kemptown, Nuneaton, Northampton North, Erewash, Croydon Central, Keighley, Stevenage, Pudsey, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Norwich North, Milton Keynes South, Crewe & Nantwich and Finchley and Golders Green as holds over and above the 43-44 losses Ashcroft/ComRes are showing.Pulpstar said:
I doubt it'll be 43 losses tbh.Casino_Royale said:"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Is it?
Lab: 258 - 1 Rspct - 41 SNP - 0 UKIP + 43 Tory + 9 LD = 268
Con: 306 - 3 UKIP - 43 Lab + 12 LD = 272
I find the Tories just ahead.
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.
Cameron needs to cling onto Wirral West, Bury North, Cannock Chase, Chester, Hove, Bedford, Dewsbury, Ipswich, Warrington South and Hastings & Rye as well
Not impossible. But a real tough ask.0 -
I'm on at awful odds but I just can't see David Ward holding Bradford East.rcs1000 said:Pulpstar said:Labour start off at 226 in the Con-Lab battle imo, 40 losses to the SNP and 10 gains from the Lib Dems.
36 gains leaves them with 262 seats. Add SNP 58 to that and parliament is very, very well hung.
I think you are wildly optimistic on Labour gains from the LibDems, and I speak as someone who is betting on them being hammered.surbiton said:
Labour will win about 12 - 14 from the Liberals. 40- 44 is about right but not necessarily from this selection.Pulpstar said:
I doubt it'll be 43 losses tbh.Casino_Royale said:"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Is it?
Lab: 258 - 1 Rspct - 41 SNP - 0 UKIP + 43 Tory + 9 LD = 268
Con: 306 - 3 UKIP - 43 Lab + 12 LD = 272
I find the Tories just ahead.
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.
After the obvious six seats, you get to:
Birmingham Yardley
Brent East
Hornsey & Wood Green
And
Cardiff Central
Of which I reckon at least one (and probably two) will be held.
Then it's Sheffield Hallam, Cambridge and Southwark. And I suspect the LibDems will hold all of these. To get 14, you need all of these, and one more.
He'd have had a chance as the Respect candidate but that Lib Dem bird will be on the ballot paper. Thurso isn't holding either.
There is a limit to a personal vote !
I think you're overly bullish on Lib Dem losses to the CONs and I say this as a man who has backed alot of the blues down there.0 -
I suggested this on here in the days following the Rose Garden in May 2010.David_Evershed said:In retrospect the coalition should have campaigned in this election as a coalition.
They should have agreed not to stand a candidate where their coalition partner had an extant MP and to work in the constituency for the election of their partner party.
It would have seen Labour reduced to a rump this time round, but such was the bad feeling that grew between the partners since 2010 that it was always going to look untenable. But most if not all current Coalition MPs would have saved their seats - and many of them are about to be binned.
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DavidL Indeed, on present polls looks like Tories largest party, Ed PM thanks to the SNP. Tories need to squeeze UKIP a bit more to get a confidence and supply deal with the DUP and LDs0
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But EICIPMHYUFD said:A direct swing of 3.5% from Tory to Labour would see the Tories ahead on voteshare on about 33.5% to Labour's 32.5%, if the Tories win more LD seats than Labour do they could still be largest party, especially as there are more Tory-LD marginals than Labour-LD and adding in Labour's Scottish collapse
But a losing bet unless they settle on Jacks ARSEPulpstar said:
Very very tight.surbiton said:
3 SDLP, 3/4 PC, 1 GRN ?Pulpstar said:Labour start off at 226 in the Con-Lab battle imo, 40 losses to the SNP and 10 gains from the Lib Dems.
36 gains leaves them with 262 seats. Add SNP 58 to that and parliament is very, very well hung.
Lab 226-250 band is a great bet for Labour having a bad night though.0 -
Pulpstar Yes, the marginals in the midlands and London suburbs combined outweigh those in the north and East and South0
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Afternoon all.David_Evershed said:In retrospect the coalition should have campaigned in this election as a coalition.
They should have agreed not to stand a candidate where their coalition partner had an extant MP and to work in the constituency for the election of their partner party.
I don't think an agreement was posible quite honestly.
I was also surprised that there was no formal ending of the coalition prior to the campaign kick-off, as had been widely speculated by many on here. Did I miss the annoucement, or did it just fizzle out?0 -
I see David Cameron was in Birmingham Northfield today. Interesting.0
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I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.Dair said:
People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.OblitusSumMe said:
Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.Dair said:
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).Chris123 said:ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?
It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.
That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).
If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.0 -
FWIW, did a very rough calc based on the last 10 listed Lab / Con marginals visited by the leaders according to Channel 4 News Live updates (Enfield N, Vale of Glam, Stockton S, Finchley & GG, Lincoln, Nuneaton, Bedford, Ipswich, Pudsey and Calder Valley). The average of the places being visited gives median 27th Labour target, mean 35.2. Lower quartile Labour target 11, upper quartile Labour target 71. That's based on a pretty small sample and very variable swing in different regions. But the trenches seem to be drawn based on Labour gains from Con in the low to mid 30s.0
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@Pulpstar
Ashcroft had Hemming ahead in Birmingham Yardley, he has to be 50/50 to hold especially if he gets a little bit of Tory tactical voting.
I think the conservative vote in Hornsey & Wood Green will collapse to Lynne Featherstone, although it probably won't be enough.
And I reckon there is a good chance the detestable Mr Ward holds on.
Cardiff is the most likely LibDem loss of my four, but I'd bet even money they'll hold at least one of them.0 -
That would be some gain..Casino_Royale said:I see David Cameron was in Birmingham Northfield today. Interesting.
General Election 2010: Birmingham, Northfield[13]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Richard Burden 16,841 40.3 −10.1
Conservative Keely Huxtable 14,059 33.6 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Mike Dixon 6,550 15.7 +3.3
BNP Les Orton 2,290 5.5 +2.2
UKIP John Borthwick 1,363 3.3 +1.0
Green Susan Pearce 406 1.0 N/A
Common Good Dick Rodgers 305 0.7 −0.4
Majority 2,782 6.7
Turnout 41,814 58.6 +3.4
Labour hold Swing −6.60 -
I am not convinced that this is such a great poll for Labour. There is some evidence beginning to accumulate that the polls are moving in a Tory direction. If that happens by even say a couple of points then surely quite a number of these seats will stay blue.0
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Well, Lib Dem ministers are still serving in Government so as far as I can tell, the Coalition is still continuing.SimonStClare said:
Afternoon all.David_Evershed said:In retrospect the coalition should have campaigned in this election as a coalition.
They should have agreed not to stand a candidate where their coalition partner had an extant MP and to work in the constituency for the election of their partner party.
I don't think an agreement was posible quite honestly.
I was also surprised that there was no formal ending of the coalition prior to the campaign kick-off, as had been widely speculated by many on here. Did I miss the annoucement, or did it just fizzle out?
LDs badmouthing the Tories doesn't mean it's ended. They've been doing that since Day 1 (and before its birth!)0 -
Well chosen name for a poll analyst.Pro_Rata said:FWIW, did a very rough calc based on the last 10 listed Lab / Con marginals visited by the leaders according to Channel 4 News Live updates (Enfield N, Vale of Glam, Stockton S, Finchley & GG, Lincoln, Nuneaton, Bedford, Ipswich, Pudsey and Calder Valley). The average of the places being visited gives median 27th Labour target, mean 35.2. Lower quartile Labour target 11, upper quartile Labour target 71. That's based on a pretty small sample and very variable swing in different regions. But the trenches seem to be drawn based on Labour gains from Con in the low to mid 30s.
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Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:
Con 286 + LD 24 = 310
Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320
Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.0 -
It's the Tories best prospect in Birmingham, far better than Birmingham Edgbaston.TGOHF said:
That would be some gain..Casino_Royale said:I see David Cameron was in Birmingham Northfield today. Interesting.
General Election 2010: Birmingham, Northfield[13]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Richard Burden 16,841 40.3 −10.1
Conservative Keely Huxtable 14,059 33.6 +3.2
Liberal Democrat Mike Dixon 6,550 15.7 +3.3
BNP Les Orton 2,290 5.5 +2.2
UKIP John Borthwick 1,363 3.3 +1.0
Green Susan Pearce 406 1.0 N/A
Common Good Dick Rodgers 305 0.7 −0.4
Majority 2,782 6.7
Turnout 41,814 58.6 +3.4
Labour hold Swing −6.6
I have been tipping it as an under the radar longshot for almost 6 months.0 -
The coalition still exists and ministers remain in place. They may also remain in place after the election until a new government is agreed. Even ministers who lose their seat could still be in place after the election until a new government is decided.SimonStClare said:
Afternoon all.David_Evershed said:In retrospect the coalition should have campaigned in this election as a coalition.
They should have agreed not to stand a candidate where their coalition partner had an extant MP and to work in the constituency for the election of their partner party.
I don't think an agreement was posible quite honestly.
I was also surprised that there was no formal ending of the coalition prior to the campaign kick-off, as had been widely speculated by many on here. Did I miss the annoucement, or did it just fizzle out?0 -
Amber Valley looks positive for a hold, Erewash and especially Lincoln less so, Broxtowe is a more likely hold than Erewash or Lincoln simply because of the quality of Conservative candidate. Expect some recounts in the East Midlands, so close again in several seats, Derby North also has that potential.Casino_Royale said:
I reckon about 30 +/4 seats. I have Amber Valley, Lincoln, Brighton Kemptown, Nuneaton, Northampton North, Erewash, Croydon Central, Keighley, Stevenage, Pudsey, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Norwich North, Milton Keynes South, Crewe & Nantwich and Finchley and Golders Green as holds over and above the 43-44 losses Ashcroft/ComRes are showing.Pulpstar said:
I doubt it'll be 43 losses tbh.Casino_Royale said:"This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs"
Is it?
Lab: 258 - 1 Rspct - 41 SNP - 0 UKIP + 43 Tory + 9 LD = 268
Con: 306 - 3 UKIP - 43 Lab + 12 LD = 272
I find the Tories just ahead.
Either way, this is broadly in line with what the Ashcroft constituency polls are showing c. 43 Tory seat losses to Labour.
Cameron needs to cling onto Wirral West, Bury North, Cannock Chase, Chester, Hove, Bedford, Dewsbury, Ipswich, Warrington South and Hastings & Rye as well
Not impossible. But a real tough ask.
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If EICIPM on those numbers, I wouldn't really want to be prime minister. Will be an absolute nightmare, with labours reputation in England being tested, I think. Also, how would Ed spin the election as a success? He'd have barely moved on 2010 numbers.
P.s. Plato asked about my name- it stems from my nerdy days playing age of empires in the early noughties. For some reason I continue to use it0 -
Daniel Hannan comes out for PR, the first of many Tories I suspect
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/04/daniel-hannan-mep-why-proportional-representation-is-now-right-for-the-commons.html0 -
how far did SPIN overestimate Tories in 2010?MikeL said:Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:
Con 286 + LD 24 = 310
Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320
Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.0 -
Can I have a bet at 1.9 on EICIPM with you?Pulpstar said:
I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.Dair said:
People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.OblitusSumMe said:
Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.Dair said:
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).Chris123 said:ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?
It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.
That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).
If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.0 -
Razedabode said:
If EICIPM on those numbers, I wouldn't really want to be prime minister. Will be an absolute nightmare, with labours reputation in England being tested, I think. Also, how would Ed spin the election as a success? He'd have barely moved on 2010 numbers.
Apologies, got most acronyms on here, but EICIPM? Much appreciated if someone could help out a newbie :-)0 -
Byrne: Hallam and Loughborough
Cooper: Brentford
Tristram: Dudley South and Birmingham Yardley
Balls: Hove
Reeves: Hove
Kane (Wythenshawe & Sale East): Bolton West
Bridgent Phillipson (one of the Sunderlands MPs): Redcar
Bryant: Lincoln
McTaggart (Slough): Milton Keynes South
Malhotra (Feltham): Brentford
Corbyn: Peterborough
Twigg: Bury North
Jones (Hyndburn): Rossendale
St Helens North candidate: Rossendale
Kendall: Redditch0 -
bookseller said:
Ed is Crap Is PMRazedabode said:If EICIPM on those numbers, I wouldn't really want to be prime minister. Will be an absolute nightmare, with labours reputation in England being tested, I think. Also, how would Ed spin the election as a success? He'd have barely moved on 2010 numbers.
Apologies, got most acronyms on here, but EICIPM? Much appreciated if someone could help out a newbie :-)0 -
He visited Birmingham Edgbaston and Ladywood in 2010 , that turned out well didn't it .Casino_Royale said:I see David Cameron was in Birmingham Northfield today. Interesting.
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Hah I've got enough to keep track of as it isbigjohnowls said:
Can I have a bet at 1.9 on EICIPM with you?Pulpstar said:
I think it's on a knife edge. Labour most seats has gone, Labour majority is totally out the window. PM Ed is around 1.9 I reckon.Dair said:
People seem to be clutching at margin on error when clear patterns are emerging.OblitusSumMe said:
Bear in mind the margin of error, even without considering possible systematic biases, it could easily be ten seats either way without the poll being wrong in a meaningful sense, and that would make a lot of difference.Dair said:
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).Chris123 said:ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?
It is very clear that there has been a swing to Con from Labour of about 1% to 1.5% from even, all the polling is demonstrating this in the past week. That gives the Tories a lead of 3% and make Labour 265-270 very likely.
That's enough for EICINPIPM as SNP+PC will be carrying at least 60 seats (probably 63 seats).
If people are still thinking it is unclear how the election numbers are adding up, I am quite surprised (unless they are carrying party bias). For the Tories to block EICIPM they need a 5% lead and they aren't there yet.
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Channel 4 reported it last week or so that Northfield and Halifax were considered by some "senior Tory" or whatever they were speaking to as the best prospects of Con gains from Labour.Casino_Royale said:
I see David Cameron was in Birmingham Northfield today. Interesting.
0
