politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead up a notch with Populus and not much change in Lon

Any idea what polls we are due tonight? If @isam is around, hopefully i'll be able to work a bit on your numbers tonight.

tyson said:

Miliband supported the action in Libya, hasn't mentioned it at all since, it is not in Labour's manifesto, yet today he uses drowning refugees (mainly not even from Libya) to make cheap political points, without in any way saying what he would have done differently.

The man is appalling

Really? Really? Ed has to make a foreign policy speech in the campaign to demonstrate his PM credentials. The biggest issue at the minute is the destabilisation of Europe through Libya which we helped contribute to.
I live with this on a daily basis here in Firenze. We have an increasing supply of migrants flooding into the city. I tell them to try and get to the UK where at least they might have some hope for work (London) and can mingle. I hope Italy funnels as many up north as quick as possible.
The only good thing that Berlusconi did was reach a pact with Gaddafi to stabalise the coastal areas from the traffikers. If only we could turn the clock black we would not have touched Benghazi with a barge pole- we probably would have provided military support to Mummar as we are presently providing for Hassad.
________________________________________________________________

No problem making a foreign policy speech - so far noticeably absent from the campaign from all sides, I agree. But he didn't actually espouse any policies as such, just threw some implied mud. Marks out of 10 for "PM credentials": 1 - for at least "doing" foreign policy.

As for your laissez-faire approach: tacitly condoning a massacre in Benghazi is something we will have to agree to differ on I think.

RobD said:

Any idea what polls we are due tonight? If @isam is around, hopefully i'll be able to work a bit on your numbers tonight.

YouGov and Lord Ashcroft in Rochester & Strood + some other places - a nice spread of UKIP targets would be interesting, as would Bristol West.

DennisBets said:

OldKingCole said:

DennisBets said:

If EM had not blocked the vote against military action in Syria we would be bombing Assad for cruelty to ISIS rebels. Saved Dave from himself there IMO

There was a r eport the other day that suggested that ISIS strategy was planned in US-run internement camps by former officers of Saddam's army

That's really interesting as I was having a pub politics debate yesterday and we concluded that the reason Saddam and Gaddafi were so hardcore was because it was people like ISIS they had to keep in tow.

The suggestion it is an offshoot of loyalist bathists throws the argument wide open! I mean where do you go with this one? Bomb them? Hug them? Send Nigel Farage there?

There is no suggestion they are loyal Baathists.

Daniel said:

Under 30s, yes. I know several traditional Labour voters, who are switching to Tories just to stop Farage. Do they have the numbers? I doubt it. Labour are running a strong campaign and now loosening up to help the Tories.

Do we really think people are righteous and principled enough to vote Tory or Labour just to keep UKIP out? Surely if UKIP can take a TORY seat in the south or LAB seat int North that would be such a kick in the Gonads!

I live in a Tory UKIP marginal and I just don't know if I can resist.... you know

RobD said:

JackW said:

Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

13 hours 13 minutes 13 seconds

Afraid you'll be sharing the limelight somewhat!

The Noble Lord tried to upstage the ARSE last week too. But we know who will triumph with APLOMB!

FrancisUrquhart said:

A woman whose mother died in a hospital under Labour has told Ed Miliband that she find it ‘physically repulsive’ when he claims to lead the party of the NHS.

During a live radio phone-in, the woman challenged the Labour leader over the ‘totally avoidable’ and ‘horrific’ death.

The woman, who was identified as Claire from Manchester, said that there was a ‘total denial’ from the party about what went wrong in her mother’s case.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3054385/I-physically-repulsive-claim-party-NHS-Furious-woman-mother-suffered-agonising-death-Labour-rips-Miliband.html

Awkward.

My grandfather died at the hands of the NHS in 2006 shortly after being admitted to hospital. There was a complete failure to provide even the most basic level of care. I find it quite shocking when they claim to be the only party who supports the NHS and that is somehow the envy of the world.

I would like to confront a Labour politician at some point as in the case of myself and my family they have caused a huge amount of pain and suffering.

Scott_P said:

Neil Hay has put Nicola Sturgeon in an impossible situation. If she boots him out, she is left without an SNP candidate in a winnable seat. Yet this approach would not be without precedent. During the 2010 general election, the Conservative candidate for North Ayrshire and Arran referred to homosexuality as “not normal” and when the comments came to light, the Tories suspended him and withdrew support for his campaign. It sent a clear message that his remarks were not acceptable to the party.

The same path is open to Sturgeon but it would mean sacrificing a seat to Labour. Some things, though, are above politics.

Perhaps she’ll get lucky and Hay will make the decision for her. But people look to the First Minister for leadership and, perhaps for the first time since she took office, she didn’t show it on Thursday.

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/318256-commentary-stephen-daisley-on-snp-candidate-neil-hay-and-nationalism/

Has he had a talking too from Police Scotland, as they seem to be happy to go after people for misusing social media?

Watched the Education debate with all the spokespeople of Con,lab,lib,greens and ukip with Andrew Neal.

Thought David laws came out on top followed by nicky morgan,loved the scrap between ukip and Greens,the Greens spending plans are something else ;-)

What can I say about Tristram Hunt for labour,a complete tool,if you don't believe me,watch it.

FrancisUrquhart said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Ross Kemp has been wheeled out today for his every 4-5 years duty for Labour. He campaigned in South Thanet.

There really has been a surprising lack of celebs so far. The hyprocrite hobbit at the start. Eddie Izzard is a given. And that is about it really.

Not that it is a bad thing. I don't think just because you are an actor or whatever you have anymore of a valid view than Bob from Bognor, and normally Bob is better informed of the real world.

Sol Campbell was in Colchester today for the Tories.

Not sure it'll do them much good, Bob Russell shows no sign of going anywhere

DennisBets said:

Daniel said:

Under 30s, yes. I know several traditional Labour voters, who are switching to Tories just to stop Farage. Do they have the numbers? I doubt it. Labour are running a strong campaign and now loosening up to help the Tories.

Do we really think people are righteous and principled enough to vote Tory or Labour just to keep UKIP out? Surely if UKIP can take a TORY seat in the south or LAB seat int North that would be such a kick in the Gonads!

I live in a Tory UKIP marginal and I just don't know if I can resist.... you know

Labour voters voting Tory to stop Ukip is the definition of electoral stupidity.

Is anyone keeping tabs on the amount of air-time each party is getting? It seems to me EdM is getting the lion's share.
What a piece of work this man is. His speech today was really low politics. I was in a coffee shop watching it on the TV screen and when I looked around, not one single person was watching it. I have to say in all honesty we must have the most ignorant electorate anywhere in the world and take our right to vote for granted.

dr_spyn said:

Scott_P said:

Neil Hay has put Nicola Sturgeon in an impossible situation. If she boots him out, she is left without an SNP candidate in a winnable seat. Yet this approach would not be without precedent. During the 2010 general election, the Conservative candidate for North Ayrshire and Arran referred to homosexuality as “not normal” and when the comments came to light, the Tories suspended him and withdrew support for his campaign. It sent a clear message that his remarks were not acceptable to the party.

The same path is open to Sturgeon but it would mean sacrificing a seat to Labour. Some things, though, are above politics.

Perhaps she’ll get lucky and Hay will make the decision for her. But people look to the First Minister for leadership and, perhaps for the first time since she took office, she didn’t show it on Thursday.

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/318256-commentary-stephen-daisley-on-snp-candidate-neil-hay-and-nationalism/

Has he had a talking too from Police Scotland, as they seem to be happy to go after people for misusing social media?


Perhaps you can point to anything he has done which is a crime?

Or even anything Neil Hay has done which is even morally wrong?

RobD said:

JonCisBack said:

MP_SE said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A woman whose mother died in a hospital under Labour has told Ed Miliband that she find it ‘physically repulsive’ when he claims to lead the party of the NHS.

During a live radio phone-in, the woman challenged the Labour leader over the ‘totally avoidable’ and ‘horrific’ death.

The woman, who was identified as Claire from Manchester, said that there was a ‘total denial’ from the party about what went wrong in her mother’s case.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3054385/I-physically-repulsive-claim-party-NHS-Furious-woman-mother-suffered-agonising-death-Labour-rips-Miliband.html

Awkward.

My grandfather died at the hands of the NHS in 2006 shortly after being admitted to hospital. There was a complete failure to provide even the most basic level of care. I find it quite shocking when they claim to be the only party who supports the NHS and that is somehow the envy of the world.

I would like to confront a Labour politician at some point as in the case of myself and my family they have caused a huge amount of pain and suffering.

I think we're long overdue taking politicians out of the running of the NHS.

Why does anyone think either Andy Burnham or Jeremy Hunt are the best placed people to run it? They're not surely.

The NHS has more support than any party ever has had, but ideology and short termism, inappropriate targets and cash-splurging competitions do none of us any favours.

I suppose on the Labour side, they may be worried that the further from government it becomes, the easier it would be to package it up and privatise the whole thing.

It is arguable that the end of the decline of the railway system occurred under Thatcher. Who, as it is well known, did not particularly care about them. This allowed some very talented managers to do what was required without too much political interferences: sectorisation being a classic and successful example.

I cannot see how politicians backing out of micromanaging the NHS could do anything but good. Politicians should set the bounds of what the NHS does and does not do, and provide the funds, and then after that they should just back away.

JosiasJessop said:

RobD said:

JonCisBack said:

MP_SE said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A woman whose mother died in a hospital under Labour has told Ed Miliband that she find it ‘physically repulsive’ when he claims to lead the party of the NHS.

During a live radio phone-in, the woman challenged the Labour leader over the ‘totally avoidable’ and ‘horrific’ death.

The woman, who was identified as Claire from Manchester, said that there was a ‘total denial’ from the party about what went wrong in her mother’s case.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3054385/I-physically-repulsive-claim-party-NHS-Furious-woman-mother-suffered-agonising-death-Labour-rips-Miliband.html

Awkward.

My grandfather died at the hands of the NHS in 2006 shortly after being admitted to hospital. There was a complete failure to provide even the most basic level of care. I find it quite shocking when they claim to be the only party who supports the NHS and that is somehow the envy of the world.

I would like to confront a Labour politician at some point as in the case of myself and my family they have caused a huge amount of pain and suffering.

I think we're long overdue taking politicians out of the running of the NHS.

Why does anyone think either Andy Burnham or Jeremy Hunt are the best placed people to run it? They're not surely.

The NHS has more support than any party ever has had, but ideology and short termism, inappropriate targets and cash-splurging competitions do none of us any favours.

I suppose on the Labour side, they may be worried that the further from government it becomes, the easier it would be to package it up and privatise the whole thing.

It is arguable that the end of the decline of the railway system occurred under Thatcher. Who, as it is well known, did not particularly care about them. This allowed some very talented managers to do what was required without too much political interferences: sectorisation being a classic and successful example.

I cannot see how politicians backing out of micromanaging the NHS could do anything but good. Politicians should set the bounds of what the NHS does and does not do, and provide the funds, and then after that they should just back away.

That was meant to be the grand bargain, the quid pro quo of the Lansley reforms. By setting up NHS England (formerly NHS Commissioning Board) and removing the responsibility to provide a health service from the Secretary of State, the NHS could operate at arm's length from the government without incessant tinkering.

The idea didn't last long.

"What can I say about Tristram Hunt for labour,a complete tool,"

Yeah but he's hot.

No homo................................

.....................a bit homo

Labour still 2/1 in Thurrock. Mainly based on Euros and an Ashcroft poll from long ago in the Ukip summer. Value?

RobD said:

Any idea what polls we are due tonight? If @isam is around, hopefully i'll be able to work a bit on your numbers tonight.

Hi thanks

Pong said:

MikeK said:

Looks like the lefties are worried:

From BBC

Celebrities back Lucas
Posted at 19:02
Sir David Attenborough has added his name to a letter backing Green Caroline Lucas for reelection in Brighton Pavilion. Comedian Rory Bremner and singer Billy Bragg have also signed an open letter saying they think "it’s crucial" Ms Lucas is in the next Parliament.

We believe that our democracy can only be strengthened by maintaining such a strong and inspirational presence in Parliament.”

Mike, You're one of the ukip experts on here, right?

How do you currently rate the chance of Farage becoming prime minister?

I was surprised when I was playing round with baxter earlier - it seems just about possible on 31% of the vote. The mass media seem to assume it's impossible, but how unlikely actually is it that Nigel will be the one who goes to buckingham palace next month?

Maybe a 3% shot, 5%? What do you recon?

More like 0.03% to 0.05%.

MarkSenior said:

Dadge said:

DennisBets said:

Daniel said:

Under 30s, yes. I know several traditional Labour voters, who are switching to Tories just to stop Farage. Do they have the numbers? I doubt it. Labour are running a strong campaign and now loosening up to help the Tories.

Do we really think people are righteous and principled enough to vote Tory or Labour just to keep UKIP out? Surely if UKIP can take a TORY seat in the south or LAB seat int North that would be such a kick in the Gonads!

I live in a Tory UKIP marginal and I just don't know if I can resist.... you know

Labour voters voting Tory to stop Ukip is the definition of electoral stupidity.

Of course it isn't , the sooner UKIP are returned to the fringes of UK politics as with their antecedents of BNP and NF , the better for everyone in this country .

I think your wrong Mark. UKIP speaks to a section of the electorate that feels increasingly alienated by mainstream politics. UKIP deserves it's place amongst one of the leading parties in the UK.

MarkSenior said:

Dadge said:

DennisBets said:

Daniel said:

Under 30s, yes. I know several traditional Labour voters, who are switching to Tories just to stop Farage. Do they have the numbers? I doubt it. Labour are running a strong campaign and now loosening up to help the Tories.

Do we really think people are righteous and principled enough to vote Tory or Labour just to keep UKIP out? Surely if UKIP can take a TORY seat in the south or LAB seat int North that would be such a kick in the Gonads!

I live in a Tory UKIP marginal and I just don't know if I can resist.... you know

Labour voters voting Tory to stop Ukip is the definition of electoral stupidity.

Of course it isn't , the sooner UKIP are returned to the fringes of UK politics as with their antecedents of BNP and NF , the better for everyone in this country .

Speaking of definitions, having 1 or 2 MPs seems to fit the definition of being on the fringes of UK politics. Selling the threat of Nigel Farage MP as being worse than the threat of a Conservative government would be a quite spectacular con trick if you could pull it off. But the right wing seem to be quite good at fooling gullible lefties this way.

Sun Politics ✔ @SunPolitics

Thousands of teachers could face the sack if Labour win the election http://sunpl.us/6014fsVe pic.twitter.com/aayvxcmN0V

This story came from the Education debate on the bbc with the labours foot in mouth Tristram Julian William Hunt.

perdix said:

JosiasJessop said:

It is arguable that the end of the decline of the railway system occurred under Thatcher. Who, as it is well known, did not particularly care about them. This allowed some very talented managers to do what was required without too much political interferences: sectorisation being a classic and successful example.

I cannot see how politicians backing out of micromanaging the NHS could do anything but good. Politicians should set the bounds of what the NHS does and does not do, and provide the funds, and then after that they should just back away.

The problem is that the NHS is a political football. Politicians get blamed if things go wrong and seldom get the credit when things work well. Recent surveys have shown that the vast majority who have used the NHS are very happy with the service. Then you get rED wanting to "weaponise" the NHS for political reasons even though Labour's record is not good. He is supported by many of the NHS staff who don't want any change which would result in them being more accountable.

The same is true for the railways: they were a political football. The big difference is that, whilst Labour pretended to care about them, they did not give them anywhere near the required funding. In the end they were only interested in the railway unions rather than the railways.

The NHS will not got enough money either, whatever the parties say, as the NHS is a massive money pit. There will always be unmet demand.

We need a PM who does not particularly care for the NHS, but realises that it is necessary. Perhaps then we will get a service that deals with people rather than itself.

As a side issue, I wonder what's happened to 'Education, education, education' from Labour this GE?

JohnC isback says
''Really? Really? Ed has to make a foreign policy speech in the campaign to demonstrate his PM credentials. ''

Correct and he has just demonstrated he has none.
He did the same when he played cheap crass nasty politics over the attempt to stop Assad gassing his own citizens. Then he turns round and has the nerve to complain about the govt not wading in in the Med.

The drowning refugees are Somalian not Libyan.

As someone said... Appalling.

OldKingCole said:

DennisBets said:

If EM had not blocked the vote against military action in Syria we would be bombing Assad for cruelty to ISIS rebels. Saved Dave from himself there IMO

There was a report the other day that suggested that ISIS strategy was planned in US-run internement camps by former officers of Saddam's army

Was not the story that it was one of the colonels who avoided the 'internment camps' that set ISIS?
He was killed recently.
If we had aided the non ISIS Syrian rebels then they would have had the support to stop ISIS at the beginning.

Tonights YG EICIPM

calum said:

Flightpath1 said:

JohnC isback says
''Really? Really? Ed has to make a foreign policy speech in the campaign to demonstrate his PM credentials. ''

Correct and he has just demonstrated he has none.
He did the same when he played cheap crass nasty politics over the attempt to stop Assad gassing his own citizens. Then he turns round and has the nerve to complain about the govt not wading in in the Med.

The drowning refugees are Somalian not Libyan.

As someone said... Appalling.