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OK thanks. How many pollsters is it? The number of polls is redundant since only the most recent from each pollster actually effects the numbers - it is the number of pollsters that matters.isam said:I said 7 polls and it is 7 polls.
EG if there are 5 YouGov, 2 Populus, 1 ICM and 1 Panelbase polls in your SPUD then that's 9 polls (5+2+1+1) but it's only 4 pollsters (YouGov, Populus, ICM and Panelbase).
SPUD only takes into account the most recent YouGov and Populus polls, so to get an average per pollster we need to divide by 4 not 9. The first for YouGovs and the first Populus are disregarded by the formula used.
Make sense?0 -
Paddy Power has still not settled its "Size of the House of Commons" market which was a big talking point on here back in 2012 before the boundary changes were scrapped.
Many people (including me) backed 650 seats at prices a bit better than evens.
Seems ridiculous that this still hasn't been settled.0 -
Given the polls stubbornly refuse to move in the direction of the Tories and insist on at best showing what is basically a tie, on average, I think we'd already moved on to the 'the polls are all wrong' stage of the losing campaign message.0
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Part-ELBOW for the week so far - 9 polls, 4 YG, 5 non-YG.
YG-only = Lab lead 0.6%
non-YG = Lab lead 0.9%
Official ELBOW = Lab lead 0.7%0 -
Has anyone got the number for the squirrel Samaritans?0
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On that poll - most of the undecideds would vote Tory. (Or a lot more than Labour)anotherDave said:Panelbase tables.
http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W6836w5gb.pdf
UKIP seem OK with men - but not with women.0 -
Panelbase
Undecided voters (130 sub sample) in forced vote:
"Q4b. If the election was today, and you were standing in the polling booth right now, how would you vote?"
Con 23%, Lab 15%, UKIP 13%, Green 8%, LD 5%.0 -
You never know, HM may decide to dissolve the council permanently...*winks at Sunil*MikeL said:Paddy Power has still not settled its "Size of the House of Commons" market which was a big talking point on here back in 2012 before the boundary changes were scrapped.
Many people (including me) backed 650 seats at prices a bit better than evens.
Seems ridiculous that this still hasn't been settled.
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Seems like ages since the Easter Sunday ELBOW that put the Tories 0.4% ahead.0
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You are asking me questions that are easily answered by thisPhilip_Thompson said:
OK thanks. How many pollsters is it? The number of polls is redundant since only the most recent from each pollster actually effects the numbers - it is the number of pollsters that matters.isam said:I said 7 polls and it is 7 polls.
EG if there are 5 YouGov, 2 Populus, 1 ICM and 1 Panelbase polls in your SPUD then that's 9 polls (5+2+1+1) but it's only 4 pollsters (YouGov, Populus, ICM and Panelbase).
SPUD only takes into account the most recent YouGov and Populus polls, so to get an average per pollster we need to divide by 4 not 9. The first for YouGovs and the first Populus are disregarded by the formula used.
Make sense?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
I have no ownership of the numbers.. they are as I presented and you can dissect whichever way makes you happy
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My concern about the legitimacy and stability of the new UK government from 8th May - of whatever hue - grows daily.0
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With the recent signs of how poorly the Lib Dems are doing in the South West, I've dragged my predictions for Lib Dem seats down to below 20.0
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Wait until the Tory voters come home from their Easter break, Tory leads AOTS.Sunil_Prasannan said:Seems like ages since the Easter Sunday ELBOW that put the Tories 0.4% ahead.
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I'm asking them now.MikeL said:Paddy Power has still not settled its "Size of the House of Commons" market which was a big talking point on here back in 2012 before the boundary changes were scrapped.
Many people (including me) backed 650 seats at prices a bit better than evens.
Seems ridiculous that this still hasn't been settled.0 -
I've been wondering if that's an illusion, and come the day women will vote the same as the men.weejonnie said:
UKIP seem OK with men - but not with women.
We'll find out soon enough.
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You mean they should do as they're told? That's a bit off.anotherDave said:
I've been wondering if that's an illusion, and come the day women will vote the same as the men.weejonnie said:
UKIP seem OK with men - but not with women.
We'll find out soon enough.0 -
Righto yes that'd be great.RobD said:
I only offer because I can back-calculate it to 2010isam said:
That would be great, I am happy to share my thunder!RobD said:
If you want I can add this to my PB polling google doc, it shouldn't take too long to add a column to compare with the previous result from the same pollster.isam said:
Wish I had started to do this earlier.. it would be possible, but time consuming to work backwards and compare the line with the betting moves I thinkStereotomy said:
Yeah, I only asked between those two options because they both seemed equally legitimate to me. Wasn't implying any sleight of handisam said:
Honestly there are no traps! It is as simple as thisStereotomy said:
And if it's the latest, is it the difference between that one and the previous one this week, or that one and the one from last week?Lestuh said:
Is it the latest YouGov that get's counted? Or the first one that week?isam said:
Yes that's itPhilip_Thompson said:
Right so if a 1% change is shown by 6 different pollsters then that shows a 6% change rather than 1%?isam said:
Its the aggregate changes on the week calculated by comparing each poll to the previous one from that pollster.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm curious how you've got this figure as I can't think of any poll that's had the Tories down 9 or 7, how are you calculating this?isam said:Oh please everyone accept my most humble apologies for not updating SPUD last night... I had a date would you believe?!
After todays Panelbase, the scores are
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
But the UKIP fade/Tory campaign success "feeling" is the PB meme
One suggestion if you're open to it would be to divide the totals by the number of pollsters in your sample.
And, yes I agree. That's why I try to mention how many polls it is based on so people can divide by that if they like, to show an average per poll
I measure the difference between scores from each poll and the last poll carried out by the pollster.. I haven't had occasion to worry about same pollster/diff newspaper yet, but will prob compare to the last one from that pollster and newspaper
Or I can do this offline, and send you the results, don't want to steal your thunder! I'll work on it offline, and send you a PM when it's ready.
Then we can look at the trends and see how they compared with the thread/betting moves etc
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Not really as the date completed isn't the date published. I don't know which polls are included in your SPUD, there are 3 with a date completed of 20/4 onwards while eg ICM is 9 polls ago on that list.isam said:
You are asking me questions that are easily answered by thisPhilip_Thompson said:
OK thanks. How many pollsters is it? The number of polls is redundant since only the most recent from each pollster actually effects the numbers - it is the number of pollsters that matters.isam said:I said 7 polls and it is 7 polls.
EG if there are 5 YouGov, 2 Populus, 1 ICM and 1 Panelbase polls in your SPUD then that's 9 polls (5+2+1+1) but it's only 4 pollsters (YouGov, Populus, ICM and Panelbase).
SPUD only takes into account the most recent YouGov and Populus polls, so to get an average per pollster we need to divide by 4 not 9. The first for YouGovs and the first Populus are disregarded by the formula used.
Make sense?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
I have no ownership of the numbers.. they are as I presented and you can dissect whichever way makes you happy
Without knowing which polls you've included, I'm not sure how many pollsters you've included. I didn't think it'd be a difficult question to answer. To get an average figure, it'd be interesting to divide SPUD by pollsters (NOT polls).0 -
SPUD, ARSE, ELBOW, POTATO...0
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Will you be re-organizing the UK into the First Galactic Empire - for a safe and secure society?RobD said:
You never know, HM may decide to dissolve the council permanently...*winks at Sunil*MikeL said:Paddy Power has still not settled its "Size of the House of Commons" market which was a big talking point on here back in 2012 before the boundary changes were scrapped.
Many people (including me) backed 650 seats at prices a bit better than evens.
Seems ridiculous that this still hasn't been settled. 0 -
No, I mean they're answering differently to men from the same demographic.Anorak said:
You mean they should do as they're told? That's a bit off.anotherDave said:
I've been wondering if that's an illusion, and come the day women will vote the same as the men.weejonnie said:
UKIP seem OK with men - but not with women.
We'll find out soon enough.
During the Scottish referendum there was a marked gender split in the polling. The conclusion offered by the pollsters was that women are more 'risk averse'.
I'm translating 'risk averse' to 'shy UKIP'.0 -
It could be that men in low/ unskilled work are feeling the squeeze from the immigrants (or those voting UKIP are) and they haven't told the missus yet. Just a thought.anotherDave said:
I've been wondering if that's an illusion, and come the day women will vote the same as the men.weejonnie said:
UKIP seem OK with men - but not with women.
We'll find out soon enough.
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A period without legislation might do the country good :-)BenM said:My concern about the legitimacy and stability of the new UK government from 8th May - of whatever hue - grows daily.
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That all depends on which polls are wrong!kle4 said:Given the polls stubbornly refuse to move in the direction of the Tories and insist on at best showing what is basically a tie, on average, I think we'd already moved on to the 'the polls are all wrong' stage of the losing campaign message.
If you vote Tory, then Panelbase, TNS, Populus and Ipsos are wrong.
If you vote Labour, then ICM, Ashcroft, Comres, Survation and Opinium are wrong.
Yougov swing both ways depending on the mood their methodolgy wakes up in each morning. They're a love 'em and leave 'em kinda poll.0 -
I'm interested to see how Labour will do in Stroud. The Ashcroft poll a while back gave them a healthy lead, but the Kingswood/NESomerset polls are a little at odds with that.Pulpstar said:
Bristol West will be a ray of sunshine for Labour in the Southwest.Danny565 said:With the recent signs of how poorly the Lib Dems are doing in the South West, I've dragged my predictions for Lib Dem seats down to below 20.
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Right example, wrong conclusions. Yes there was a marked gender split but the polls were correct in picking this up, because the final answer matched quite closely to the polls. Its not a case that the pollsters incorrectly picked up the women's answers.anotherDave said:
No, I mean they're answering differently to men from the same demographic.Anorak said:
You mean they should do as they're told? That's a bit off.anotherDave said:
I've been wondering if that's an illusion, and come the day women will vote the same as the men.weejonnie said:
UKIP seem OK with men - but not with women.
We'll find out soon enough.
During the Scottish referendum there was a marked gender split in the polling. The conclusion offered by the pollsters was that women are more 'risk averse'.
I'm translating 'risk averse' to 'shy UKIP'.
Women probably are more "risk averse", so they're simply disproportionately not UKIP voters just as they were disproportionately not Yes voters.0 -
I was pulling your leg. Should have added one of these:anotherDave said:
No, I mean they're answering differently to men from the same demographic.Anorak said:
You mean they should do as they're told? That's a bit off.anotherDave said:
I've been wondering if that's an illusion, and come the day women will vote the same as the men.weejonnie said:
UKIP seem OK with men - but not with women.
We'll find out soon enough.
During the Scottish referendum there was a marked gender split in the polling. The conclusion offered by the pollsters was that women are more 'risk averse'.
I'm translating 'risk averse' to 'shy UKIP'.
True on the risk averse. Historically women were more likely to be Tory voters...0 -
@PeterMannionMP: Prescient #LutferRahman #TowerHamlets Downfall video from a couple of months ago:
https://t.co/shX75IL3Kt
(via @TimMorton2 )0 -
To be fair, you could say a Parliament unable to pass major legislation is actually what the country wants. Clearly people don't have much enthusiasm about either parties' offerings right now, so maybe it's for the best that we essentially just have civil servants running things (just doing the basics and keeping the lights on) until one or other of the parties has actually come up with something good and which the public is prepared to give a mandate to.rottenborough said:
A period without legislation might do the country good :-)BenM said:My concern about the legitimacy and stability of the new UK government from 8th May - of whatever hue - grows daily.
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Stroud looks like it has a mass of soft yellows. It's a seat Labour should have been working very, very hard.Danny565 said:
I'm interested to see how Labour will do in Stroud. The Ashcroft poll a while back gave them a healthy lead, but the Kingswood/NESomerset polls are a little at odds with that.Pulpstar said:
Bristol West will be a ray of sunshine for Labour in the Southwest.Danny565 said:With the recent signs of how poorly the Lib Dems are doing in the South West, I've dragged my predictions for Lib Dem seats down to below 20.
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Lib Dem collapse should suit Labour in Stroud.0
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BTW have complete YG-only and non-YG ELBOW data going back to August - more on Sunday!0
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Tut tut. Doesn't he know he ceased being an MP when HM dissolved the parliament (temporarily, this time)Scott_P said:@PeterMannionMP: Prescient #LutferRahman #TowerHamlets Downfall video from a couple of months ago:
https://t.co/shX75IL3Kt
(via @TimMorton2 )
(Yeah, i know it's a joke account!)
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Labour I reckon. Greens to go close though.rottenborough said:0 -
An interesting point. I bet it won't stop whoever wins (or whichever combination of parties who win) talking about the people having spoken clearly for change/more of the same and all that cobbler though.Danny565 said:
To be fair, you could say a Parliament unable to pass major legislation is actually what the country wants. Clearly people don't have much enthusiasm about either parties' offerings right now, so maybe it's for the best that we essentially just have civil servants running things (just doing the basics and keeping the lights on) until one or other of the parties has actually come up with something good and which the public is prepared to give a mandate to.rottenborough said:
A period without legislation might do the country good :-)BenM said:My concern about the legitimacy and stability of the new UK government from 8th May - of whatever hue - grows daily.
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Reporting of the IFS report is getting ridiculous. Sky news are spending their time claiming that falls in Spending as a percentage of GDP are "cuts". The utter idiocy and numerical illiteracy of their reporting is bad even for Sky.0
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Stroud stands out as being a bit different - they have a fair few Green councillors.Danny565 said:
I'm interested to see how Labour will do in Stroud. The Ashcroft poll a while back gave them a healthy lead, but the Kingswood/NESomerset polls are a little at odds with that.Pulpstar said:
Bristol West will be a ray of sunshine for Labour in the Southwest.Danny565 said:With the recent signs of how poorly the Lib Dems are doing in the South West, I've dragged my predictions for Lib Dem seats down to below 20.
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I agree with Ben. Haven't said that very often on hereBenM said:My concern about the legitimacy and stability of the new UK government from 8th May - of whatever hue - grows daily.
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I guess that what's happening in SLABs homelands, all their voters are stuck in Spain.compouter2 said:
Wait until the Tory voters come home from their Easter break, Tory leads AOTS.Sunil_Prasannan said:Seems like ages since the Easter Sunday ELBOW that put the Tories 0.4% ahead.
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Good evening, everyone.
Rumours of the forthcoming enormo-haddock coup are mostly inaccurate. Do not be alarmed, citizens.0 -
My bank manager is hoping for better than close...Pulpstar said:
Labour I reckon. Greens to go close though.rottenborough said:
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Don't forget SHAVE!Pulpstar said:SPUD, ARSE, ELBOW, POTATO...
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That's one coronation ceremony I don't want to watch!Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Rumours of the forthcoming enormo-haddock coup are mostly inaccurate. Do not be alarmed, citizens.0 -
Perhaps they are all now so well off after the economic recovery that has swept the nation that they have taken the whole month off. Just you wait till they are all back in May then we'll see the Tories 10% ahead!compouter2 said:
Wait until the Tory voters come home from their Easter break, Tory leads AOTS.Sunil_Prasannan said:Seems like ages since the Easter Sunday ELBOW that put the Tories 0.4% ahead.
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o_O How much have you got on...rottenborough said:
My bank manager is hoping for better than close...Pulpstar said:
Labour I reckon. Greens to go close though.rottenborough said:0 -
Mr. D, you have nothing to fear from your new piscine overlords.0
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From memory I think in the last Presidential Election in 2012 every state went to the favourite- which probably reflects better state by state polling than constituency polling in GB.0
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Sounds fishy to me. Not a good plaice to be, for sure. Although it cod be worse.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, you have nothing to fear from your new piscine overlords.
Hat. Coat. Taxi for one!0 -
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Stroud-July-2014-Full-tables.pdfOblitusSumMe said:
Stroud stands out as being a bit different - they have a fair few Green councillors.Danny565 said:
I'm interested to see how Labour will do in Stroud. The Ashcroft poll a while back gave them a healthy lead, but the Kingswood/NESomerset polls are a little at odds with that.Pulpstar said:
Bristol West will be a ray of sunshine for Labour in the Southwest.Danny565 said:With the recent signs of how poorly the Lib Dems are doing in the South West, I've dragged my predictions for Lib Dem seats down to below 20.
Stroud National VI= C 33 L 34 (Ashcroft national that week Lab +4)
Stroud Constituency VI = C30 L41
Looking at the data it seems that a lot of D/K and refused split to Labour on the second question. This turned neck and neck into a big lead.
There's little sign of additional switching from LD/UKIP/Grn.
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Mike - if you are not going to defend political markets, who is? They can be better than the alternatives, particularly pundits, even expert's political judgement!0
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Kle - don't beat yourself up. In my line of work, it's quite common to find people dismissing a message precisely because of who delivers it. They refuse to pay attention to what is being said because of who is saying it and, while someone may well have quite malicious or mixed motives for saying something, that is emphatically not a reason for refusing to look properly at what is being said.kle4 said:
I will freely admit I was probably one of them. The first time I recall hearing someone talk about grooming gangs of asian men it was the leader of the EDL I believe, and obviously he was presented as and I took him to be, a racist nutbag. Now, I'm not about to start taking what they say as gospel, or think in anyway their 'solutions' are the way to go, but I like to think now if such claims emerged, I would not instinctively dismiss them just because of the source.isam said:
Anyone in the real world with an open mind has known this for years.kle4 said:
The judge in this case seems to consider such reticence a major concern to be addressed, given several references in the afterword, which seems more likely to be read than much of the underlying detail in this case. I suspect the final paragraph will be much quoted:isam said:
Rotherham.. people said for years that Asian men were abusing underage girlskle4 said:
Just flicking through, some marvellous little details along the way:dr_spyn said:some light reading from Tower Hamlets for the pb legal eagles.
https://trialbyjeory.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/judgment.pdf
Para592...
This will prove quite the read, I have no doubt.
They were ignored, called racist... they were right
Tower Hamlets... people said for years that the voting was fraudulent and Rahman was corrupt
They were ignored, called racist... they were right
para686 Events of recent months in contexts very different from electoral malpractice have starkly demonstrated what happens when those in authority are afraid to confront wrongdoing for fear of allegations of racism and Islamophobia. Even in the multicultural society which is 21st century Britain, the law must be applied fairly and equally to everyone. Otherwise we are lost.
Dogmatic multiculturalists just refused to see it. Trevor Phillips, the leading Multiculturalist for many years, should be knighted for having the guts to admit it was all bollocks
Very hard to distinguish between message and messenger.
There again, there are none so blind as those that don't want to see.
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"On election day 2010 the betting markets had CON with a 100 seat lead – it finished up at 49 seats."
So this time, then, it's looking like a CON majority or a CON-LD coalition.
It's remarkable how so many pundits are assuming that the difference between polls and the actual results will be tiny. Why are they doing that? Can't they bear the thought of another CON-LD coalition?
If LAB had any sense, they'd send all their heavyweights to Scotland. People talk about Holyrood 2016, but we're still only 6 months away from the Sep 2014 indyref in which hundreds of thousands of people who wouldn't otherwise have voted trekked to polling stations to stop the SNP.0
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