Hi there, Great read! Your blog is really interesting. I thought you might like the filmed programme- ‘QuestionDine 2015: Election Candidates with chips’. In the short video, prospective parliamentary candidates sit down for supper with young volunteers to discuss the big political ideas .From immigration, economic growth and the EU to free speech, humanitarian intervention and building homes ourselves; they put cracking questions to candidates. But, do they get answers they are looking for? You decide. You can watch the short video here: http://www.worldbytes.org/questiondine-2015-election-candidates-with-chips/ We would be delighted to get your feedback/comments on the video and would very grateful if you would embed the video and share this programme with your friends and networks who may be interested. Thank you.
I regard the current "Most Seats" prices and Sporting Index spreads as absurd. One of my biggest open positions at the moment is on Labour getting most seats. I reckon I have a 50:50 chance of collecting on this.
There are biases built into the constituency markets too, though these are less extreme. I looked at this in January:
In the previous thread, OGH takes it as being such a foregone conclusion that the Tories will lose all their 26 most vulnerable seats to Labour that he doesn't even bother to list them.
The narrowest margin I currently have the Tories holding in my model is Waveney.
True. But there's been about 4% national Lab-Con fallback too. I'm not saying my model is right and that the Tories should be favs, but I do think it's a case where a lot of weight has been put on an old poll.
Hi there, Great read! Your blog is really interesting. I thought you might like the filmed programme- ‘QuestionDine 2015: Election Candidates with chips’. In the short video, prospective parliamentary candidates sit down for supper with young volunteers to discuss the big political ideas .From immigration, economic growth and the EU to free speech, humanitarian intervention and building homes ourselves; they put cracking questions to candidates. But, do they get answers they are looking for? You decide. You can watch the short video here: http://www.worldbytes.org/questiondine-2015-election-candidates-with-chips/ We would be delighted to get your feedback/comments on the video and would very grateful if you would embed the video and share this programme with your friends and networks who may be interested. Thank you.
Hi there,
If you can't be arsed to tailor your comment to the blog you're posting it on then I can't be arsed to watch your video.
Just a reflection on what a total hypocrite Osborne is.
He has just attacked Labour and SNP for not proposing a formal coalition ie exactly what he previously demanded Milliband did. Breathtaking andf totally desperate.
Shows why Milliband should have told them to take a hike when the Tories and their allies originally pressurised them!
He is playing the exquisitely awful (for Lab) Lab/SNP situation 1,000 ways. He in all probability comes off-stage/takes off the mike and has a fit of uncontrollable giggles.
Yes. The arsehole can do that for another 14 days.
I see his SNP lines are really getting under your skin.
The pop of another head exploding. This election is tortuous, mainly because of the SLAB collapse. This is the main defining (political) point - economically the deficit seems to be under control with the tories . The fact that this collapse was not expected does not mean the consequences should be ignored. Was it Dair earlier who was talking about proper representation with taxation? The SNP will have no proper authority to be in govt with labour over English only matters and Scottish only matters are devolved.
But leaving aside the democratic deficit - the SNP will impose far hard left policies wherever they can lay their hands on the levers of power. Whatever happens in Scottish constituencies is up top the Scots - but if English voters want no part of that then they need to vote tory. This was the first big image of this election and the Tories were wise to emphasise it from the start. If the Labour vote is collapsing in Scotland (If) then English voters need to be made aware of it. Of course some left wing socialists will be happy to rise with the tide - hence this election is tortuous. Are the polls picking up on that?
I see that Milliband has attacked the IFS on PA saying "I don't accept the assumptions on three different things"
He objects that the IFS think Labour's plan is a balanced budget rather than a current surplus. What is even more interesting he is certainly correct. The IFS seem to have assumed a freeze in Labour's non prtected Departments; in fact Labour are proposing cuts.
That is pretty slipshod from the IFS. Mind you it is further bad news for Labour in Scotland who have (like the IFS) never got around to accepting the fact that Labour are actually proposing cuts!
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 26s26 seconds ago Panelbase poll LAB 34% CON 31% UKIP 17% LDEM 7% GRN 4%
Wow those English voters are just rushing to the party who can stop the SNP. UKIP apparenttly.
The question is - Will PB Tories accept yet another failure in the Tory campaigning or claim that things will "swing late and swing hard" ((C) James Francis Murphy 2015).
I don't understand the talk of Galloway "splitting the vote" in the mayoral election, the electoral system is still AV isn't it?
Yes it is. But presumably a Labour candidate would want to be coming top of the poll and given some of Galloway's associations might be wary of getting support from those who might well put off other voter i.e. the Livingstone - Qaradawi problem.
If the Tories are serious about winning they need to trumpet what has been achieved - and not just go on about the SNP. The Scots are entitled to vote for whoever they want and since we still have a Union (just about) we will need to live with and deal with the consequences.
Inflation at zero; record employment; good growth; tax receipts up and those at the bottom end paying less tax. Considering where the economy was in 2010 and where other EU countries now are, this is encouraging.
I simply don't believe that had Labour kept power, we would be in this position now and fear that if Labour were to regain power they would put this at risk. Labour - for all that they go on about budget discipline and the rest - have never in my lifetime appeared to understand that money has to be earned (even if you can borrow at low rates), that it belongs to us and needs to be spent wisely ("Never forget that it is the taxpayers' money" should be tattooed on their foreheads) and that spending money efficiently to achieve the best outcome is far far more important than just spending or spending more than the other lot.
But my fundamental objections to them are not about the economy but about the way they have turned from their Methodist - on the side of the working man roots into a statist, corporatist and authoritarian party whose instincts seem to me to be that people exist for the state's benefit rather than, as I believe, that the state should exist as the servant of the people. And who seem to view people not as individuals but as members of communities either to be talked at through self-appointed leaders or tarred with some broad brush characteristic.
We badly need a good sensible and thoughtful social democratic/left of centre party. Labour have not done the hard thinking required to turn them into that party, unfortunately.
I do have some quite serious reservations about some Tory policies e.g. on IHT and the right to buy for housing associations. I also worry about the pension freedoms. I fear that in a few years that will prove to be the germ of another gigantic mis-selling scandal. I worry about the way it has become easier for the rich to insulate themselves from the fact that most people aren't rich and that this can lead to a certain myopia about what life is and should be like for most of us.
I have to confess that I rather like the fact that the Lib Dems are in government. Sometimes, I feel that I am rather more positive about them than they seem to be themselves! If the coalition continued I would not be disappointed. But, as OGH says, the coalition is not on the ballot paper. A pity.
Still, Rahman being thrown out of politics makes today a good day. And the sun is shining.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 26s26 seconds ago Panelbase poll LAB 34% CON 31% UKIP 17% LDEM 7% GRN 4%
Wow those English voters are just rushing to the party who can stop the SNP. UKIP apparenttly.
I wouldn't read too much into this one poll but if you're an English voter scared of the SNP, "Vote UKIP to stand up for the English" actually feels more intuitive than "Vote Con to stop Lab getting lots of votes but not enough and needing the SNP".
If the Tories are serious about winning they need to trumpet what has been achieved - and not just go on about the SNP. The Scots are entitled to vote for whoever they want and since we still have a Union (just about) we will need to live with and deal with the consequences.
Inflation at zero; record employment; good growth; tax receipts up and those at the bottom end paying less tax. Considering where the economy was in 2010 and where other EU countries now are, this is encouraging.
I simply don't believe that had Labour kept power, we would be in this position now and fear that if Labour were to regain power they would put this at risk. Labour - for all that they go on about budget discipline and the rest - have never in my lifetime appeared to understand that money has to be earned (even if you can borrow at low rates), that it belongs to us and needs to be spent wisely ("Never forget that it is the taxpayers' money" should be tattooed on their foreheads) and that spending money efficiently to achieve the best outcome is far far more important than just spending or spending more than the other lot.
But my fundamental objections to them are not about the economy but about the way they have turned from their Methodist - on the side of the working man roots into a statist, corporatist and authoritarian party whose instincts seem to me to be that people exist for the state's benefit rather than, as I believe, that the state should exist as the servant of the people. And who seem to view people not as individuals but as members of communities either to be talked at through self-appointed leaders or tarred with some broad brush characteristic.
We badly need a good sensible and thoughtful social democratic/left of centre party. Labour have not done the hard thinking required to turn them into that party, unfortunately.
I do have some quite serious reservations about some Tory policies e.g. on IHT and the right to buy for housing associations. I also worry about the pension freedoms. I fear that in a few years that will prove to be the germ of another gigantic mis-selling scandal. I worry about the way it has become easier for the rich to insulate themselves from the fact that most people aren't rich and that this can lead to a certain myopia about what life is and should be like for most of us.
I have to confess that I rather like the fact that the Lib Dems are in government. Sometimes, I feel that I am rather more positive about them than they seem to be themselves! If the coalition continued I would not be disappointed. But, as OGH says, the coalition is not on the ballot paper. A pity.
Still, Rahman being thrown out of politics makes today a good day. And the sun is shining.
Very good post.
It certainly is, shame Cyclefree isn't on the ballot paper.
... But leaving aside the democratic deficit - the SNP will impose far hard left policies wherever they can lay their hands on the levers of power. ...
I've seen "far-left" and "hard-left", but never the two together. Bravo! Perhaps add "radical" next time too?
EICIPM looking more far likely again all the time the UKIP vote firms up. With all the furore about Nicola, the Vote Nigel get Ed meme has been overlooked. The Lab/Lib rather than Lab/SNP option might have some value. However I wonder how many Kipper voters actually realise they are unintentionally about to install a very europhile Labour led government for the next five years
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
O/T
Do we have any official newspaper endorsements yet?
A couple seem pretty obvious (Sun:Tory, Mirror:Labour, Express: UKIP). The interesting ones could be the Evening Standard and FT. FT backed Labour in 1992 so wouldn't be a huge shock, and although the Standard leans right its readership seems to be going the opposite way this time.
... But leaving aside the democratic deficit - the SNP will impose far hard left policies wherever they can lay their hands on the levers of power. ...
I've seen "far-left" and "hard-left", but never the two together. Bravo! Perhaps add "radical" next time too?
The 6-4 on Ed for PM is looking big now.The last 2 weeks in the vital 6 pointers will test the success of Arnie Graf's community organsising model in the ground organisation to achieve a higher differential vote based on a higher contact rate.
I regard the current "Most Seats" prices and Sporting Index spreads as absurd. One of my biggest open positions at the moment is on Labour getting most seats. I reckon I have a 50:50 chance of collecting on this.
There are biases built into the constituency markets too, though these are less extreme. I looked at this in January:
The 6-4 on Ed for PM is looking big now.The last 2 weeks in the vital 6 pointers will test the success of Arnie Graf's community organsising model in the ground organisation to achieve a higher differential vote based on a higher contact rate.
6-4 is long gone
If you're late to the Ed party though, take 6-5 Ed Balls next Chancellor, and 7-1 Harriet DPM.
''However I wonder how many Kipper voters realise they are unintentionally about to install a very Europhile Labour led government for the next five years.''
They all know, and they don;t care. They either hate Dave with a passion, or they don't trust him.
That's not to say that new is wrong, but it's interesting.
"It’s also notable, despite the limited data, that the by-election polls (all of which are conducted by phone) that have underestimated UKIP’s vote share have tended to be in more “Labour” areas (Barnsley, Wythenshawe & Sale East and Heywood & Middleton), whereas in contests with the Conservatives (Newark, Clacton and Rochester & Strood) the polls have relatively accurately measured the UKIP vote share, or even modestly overestimated it."
That is curious.
It might perhaps chime with UKIP getting more ex-labour voters who have stopped voting at all, rather than 2010 converts in those seats. Their likelihood to vote would then be scaled down for polls.
---
This suggests that UKIP are going to outperform their national polling. Very important for my UKIP vote share bets!
Antifrank has on occasion said on his blog that the constituency specific betting market prices are the best guide we have to what's really going on. But I'm just teasing him really.
Just flicking through, some marvellous little details along the way:
Para592...The nadir came when one witness gave a graphic account of how he had attended a polling station to cast his vote and found it a haven of tranquility, only to be confronted by Mr Hoar with absolutely incontrovertible evidence that the witness had, in fact, voted by post well before polling day and could not have voted in person on the day
I see some punters are drawing the wrong conclusion from Mike's header.
You should focus on the degree of error, not where the error happened to be in 2010. The same is true when considering past performance of the polls.
In other words, there is more uncertainty (in EITHER direction), than some people seem to think. Beware of spurious accuracy in predictions.
The other thing that you might want to say here is that change is hard, and it often happens slower than expected. Although this may wash out for largest party markets etc, since the polls and the markets are seeing changes in opposite directions in England and Scotland.
Antifrank has on occasion said on his blog that the constituency specific betting market prices are the best guide we have to what's really going on. But I'm just teasing him really.
When you look at it constituency by constituency - well it looks bad for Dave and not much better for Ed
''However I wonder how many Kipper voters realise they are unintentionally about to install a very Europhile Labour led government for the next five years.''
They all know, and they don;t care. They either hate Dave with a passion, or they don't trust him.
You may be right even though it is a somewhat risky long term strategy based on Ed being a failure in government. The likelihood is the vote on the right will still be split in 2020 leading to further five years of Labour in office.
Just flicking through, some marvellous little details along the way:
Para592...The nadir came when one witness gave a graphic account of how he had attended a polling station to cast his vote and found it a haven of tranquility, only to be confronted by Mr Hoar with absolutely incontrovertible evidence that the witness had, in fact, voted by post well before polling day and could not have voted in person on the day
This will prove quite the read, I have no doubt.
Rotherham.. people said for years that Asian men were abusing underage girls They were ignored, called racist... they were right
Tower Hamlets... people said for years that the voting was fraudulent and Rahman was corrupt They were ignored, called racist... they were right
The first thing I spotted was the judge's explanation of the voting system used in Tower Hamlets, which won't exactly meet with universal agreement here.:
"The drawback of this system is that it is possible for candidate A to receive 49.9% of the first preference against his main rival B’s 20% (or even 10%) but for B to receive all the second preference votes of the eliminated candidates and to be elected. In effect the election is won by the voters’ second choice of candidate."
I see some punters are drawing the wrong conclusion from Mike's header.
You should focus on the degree of error, not where the error happened to be in 2010. The same is true when considering past performance of the polls.
In other words, there is more uncertainty (in EITHER direction), than some people seem to think. Beware of spurious accuracy in predictions.
That's true. I think my final pre-election (GE2010) prediction was for the Tories to be on 297, LDs on 85 and Labour on 236 (or thereabouts) so I actually unpredicted the Tories at the time, and was surprised by the exit poll.
That's not to say that new is wrong, but it's interesting.
"It’s also notable, despite the limited data, that the by-election polls (all of which are conducted by phone) that have underestimated UKIP’s vote share have tended to be in more “Labour” areas (Barnsley, Wythenshawe & Sale East and Heywood & Middleton), whereas in contests with the Conservatives (Newark, Clacton and Rochester & Strood) the polls have relatively accurately measured the UKIP vote share, or even modestly overestimated it."
That is curious.
It might perhaps chime with UKIP getting more ex-labour voters who have stopped voting at all, rather than 2010 converts in those seats. Their likelihood to vote would then be scaled down for polls.
---
This suggests that UKIP are going to outperform their national polling. Very important for my UKIP vote share bets!
Rother Valley could spring a surprise. 6-1 Betfair is OK tbh.
Zero posters around the constituency (I had a good look), could indicate low turnout and shy UKIP.
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
I see some punters are drawing the wrong conclusion from Mike's header.
You should focus on the degree of error, not where the error happened to be in 2010. The same is true when considering past performance of the polls.
In other words, there is more uncertainty (in EITHER direction), than some people seem to think. Beware of spurious accuracy in predictions.
I think Mike has been absolutely unequivocal for some time now that the spread markets overstate the Tories, they have a history of doing so and in his opinion are doing so again- thus his bet on the spread on the difference between seats.
The first thing I spotted was the judge's explanation of the voting system used in Tower Hamlets, which won't exactly meet with universal agreement here.:
"The drawback of this system is that it is possible for candidate A to receive 49.9% of the first preference against his main rival B’s 20% (or even 10%) but for B to receive all the second preference votes of the eliminated candidates and to be elected. In effect the election is won by the voters’ second choice of candidate."
Point 5 is a nonsense.
Any Labour or UKIP? posters up in Hillsborough by the way - can see some of Blunkett's old personal vote heading there. 1-100 Labour doesn't tempt
I see some punters are drawing the wrong conclusion from Mike's header.
You should focus on the degree of error, not where the error happened to be in 2010. The same is true when considering past performance of the polls.
In other words, there is more uncertainty (in EITHER direction), than some people seem to think. Beware of spurious accuracy in predictions.
I think Mike has been absolutely unequivocal for some time now that the spread markets overstate the Tories, they have a history of doing so and in his opinion are doing so again- thus his bet on the spread on the difference between seats.
Yes based on the current polling the markets do overstate the Tories. The question therefore becomes whether the polling is accurate and whether things will change in the next two weeks.
''The likelihood is the vote on the right will still be split in 2020 leading to further five years of Labour in office.''
Maybe, maybe not. The great unknown in this campaign is how WWC labour voters really view UKIP. Every potential UKIP labour fight seems to have been studiously avoided by the pollsters.
Got a new market up at Ladbrokes: Labour Landmines. Which will be the highest entry on this list to return a Labour MP? So, if Labour fail in Kettering and Reading East, but win Enfield Southgate, then that is the winner and everything else on the list is a loser, irrespective of results further down.
Kettering 16/1 Reading East 16/1 Enfield Southgate 16/1 Glasgow Central 16/1 Watford 12/1 Great Yarmouth 16/1 Thanet South 10/1 Loughborough 16/1 Cambridge 16/1 Ilford North 12/1 Brighton Pavilion 16/1 Bristol West 16/1 Sheffield Hallam 16/1 Bermondsey & Old Southwark 16/1 Worcester 16/1 Cannock Chase 16/1 Birmingham Yardley 16/1 Renfrewshire East 16/1 Harrow East 16/1 Stockton South 16/1 Wirral West 20/1 Croydon Central 20/1 Broxtowe 20/1 Hampstead & Kilburn 20/1 Bootle 33/1
''The likelihood is the vote on the right will still be split in 2020 leading to further five years of Labour in office.''
Maybe, maybe not. The great unknown in this campaign is how WWC labour voters really view UKIP. Every potential UKIP labour fight seems to have been studiously avoided by the pollsters.
Maybe because they made such a mess of Heywood and Middleton
... But leaving aside the democratic deficit - the SNP will impose far hard left policies wherever they can lay their hands on the levers of power. ...
I've seen "far-left" and "hard-left", but never the two together. Bravo! Perhaps add "radical" next time too?
At least a hemi demi semi quaver is a thing.
Its many things but not radical to demand the abolition of our nuclear deterrent.
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
Just flicking through, some marvellous little details along the way:
Para592...The nadir came when one witness gave a graphic account of how he had attended a polling station to cast his vote and found it a haven of tranquility, only to be confronted by Mr Hoar with absolutely incontrovertible evidence that the witness had, in fact, voted by post well before polling day and could not have voted in person on the day
This will prove quite the read, I have no doubt.
Rotherham.. people said for years that Asian men were abusing underage girls They were ignored, called racist... they were right
Tower Hamlets... people said for years that the voting was fraudulent and Rahman was corrupt They were ignored, called racist... they were right
The judge in this case seems to consider such reticence a major concern to be addressed, given several references in the afterword, which seems more likely to be read than much of the underlying detail in this case. I suspect the final paragraph will be much quoted:
para686 Events of recent months in contexts very different from electoral malpractice have starkly demonstrated what happens when those in authority are afraid to confront wrongdoing for fear of allegations of racism and Islamophobia. Even in the multicultural society which is 21st century Britain, the law must be applied fairly and equally to everyone. Otherwise we are lost.
Galloway to run for London Mayor, if he loses in Bradford.
Talk about splitting the left leaning vote. That could let a tory in...?
Sturgeon, Salmond and Galloway running London?
As someone with a vote in this I am overjoyed Galloway will run... as you say it will surely split the racist vote between him and the Labour candidate if they are Khan or Abbot
A Non white right winger would be the best out come IMO
Syed Kamell is the man being spoken about in Tory circles. MEP currently and fine man. Or the excellent Stephen Greenhalgh.
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
Plaid surge on by those numbers.
Yeah...
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
Plaid surge on by those numbers.
Yeah...
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
Who gives a toss? isam's clearly doing it to satirise.
I think Mike has been absolutely unequivocal for some time now that the spread markets overstate the Tories, they have a history of doing so and in his opinion are doing so again- thus his bet on the spread on the difference between seats.
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
Plaid surge on by those numbers.
Yeah...
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
Eh?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5 Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -9
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
I see some punters are drawing the wrong conclusion from Mike's header.
You should focus on the degree of error, not where the error happened to be in 2010. The same is true when considering past performance of the polls.
In other words, there is more uncertainty (in EITHER direction), than some people seem to think. Beware of spurious accuracy in predictions.
The other thing that you might want to say here is that change is hard, and it often happens slower than expected. Although this may wash out for largest party markets etc, since the polls and the markets are seeing changes in opposite directions in England and Scotland.
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
Plaid surge on by those numbers.
Yeah...
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
Who gives a toss? isam's clearly doing it to satirise.
No I am not! I am interested in seeing how the polls are changing, and comparing like with like seems to be a decent way of testing that
Obviously the forced Acronym is satire but that's all
Got a new market up at Ladbrokes: Labour Landmines. Which will be the highest entry on this list to return a Labour MP? So, if Labour fail in Kettering and Reading East, but win Enfield Southgate, then that is the winner and everything else on the list is a loser, irrespective of results further down.
Kettering 16/1
Shadsy, you do realise that Kettering is 12/1 on your own constituency markets?
Just flicking through, some marvellous little details along the way:
Para592...The nadir came when one witness gave a graphic account of how he had attended a polling station to cast his vote and found it a haven of tranquility, only to be confronted by Mr Hoar with absolutely incontrovertible evidence that the witness had, in fact, voted by post well before polling day and could not have voted in person on the day
This will prove quite the read, I have no doubt.
Rotherham.. people said for years that Asian men were abusing underage girls They were ignored, called racist... they were right
Tower Hamlets... people said for years that the voting was fraudulent and Rahman was corrupt They were ignored, called racist... they were right
The judge in this case seems to consider such reticence a major concern to be addressed, given several references in the afterword, which seems more likely to be read than much of the underlying detail in this case. I suspect the final paragraph will be much quoted:
para686 Events of recent months in contexts very different from electoral malpractice have starkly demonstrated what happens when those in authority are afraid to confront wrongdoing for fear of allegations of racism and Islamophobia. Even in the multicultural society which is 21st century Britain, the law must be applied fairly and equally to everyone. Otherwise we are lost.
Anyone in the real world with an open mind has known this for years.
Dogmatic multiculturalists just refused to see it. Trevor Phillips, the leading Multiculturalist for many years, should be knighted for having the guts to admit it was all bollocks
Poster watch Southport. Guess who's winning here! Saw my first UKIP posters. Quite. a surprise. Three detached houses in a line. I somehow expected UKIPers in smart areas to only show themselves after dark. Hardly any Tories.
Got a new market up at Ladbrokes: Labour Landmines. Which will be the highest entry on this list to return a Labour MP? So, if Labour fail in Kettering and Reading East, but win Enfield Southgate, then that is the winner and everything else on the list is a loser, irrespective of results further down.
Kettering 16/1 Reading East 16/1 Enfield Southgate 16/1 Glasgow Central 16/1 Watford 12/1 Great Yarmouth 16/1 Thanet South 10/1 Loughborough 16/1 Cambridge 16/1 Ilford North 12/1 Brighton Pavilion 16/1 Bristol West 16/1 Sheffield Hallam 16/1 Bermondsey & Old Southwark 16/1 Worcester 16/1 Cannock Chase 16/1 Birmingham Yardley 16/1 Renfrewshire East 16/1 Harrow East 16/1 Stockton South 16/1 Wirral West 20/1 Croydon Central 20/1 Broxtowe 20/1 Hampstead & Kilburn 20/1 Bootle 33/1
If you want to take our money at least be good enough to provide a link to this market, there's a good chap! Btw, my money would be on Simon Hughes' seat at Bermondsey.
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
Plaid surge on by those numbers.
Yeah...
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
Eh?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5 Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -9
Okay, but when polls report whole numbers, they've usually rounded from a decimal, right? So if you just add them all together you end up compounding the rounding errors way more than is necessary. Your numbers don't even have to come close to adding to zero (not that you'd expect them to exactly, but there'd be some reasonable margin around zero you'd expect to be within).
Wouldn't it make more sense to add the raw, unrounded numbers, then do the rounding of the whole sum?
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
Plaid surge on by those numbers.
Yeah...
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
Eh?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5 Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -9
"The EDL is a racist organisation: therefore anyone who criticises Mr Rahman is giving aid and comfort to the EDL: therefore anyone who gives aid and comfort to the EDL is himself a Racist: therefore it is racist to criticise Mr Rahman. This series of propositions informed all the responses of Mr Rahman and his team to criticisms and may be taken to be an epitome of the thought processes of Mr Alibor Choudhury."
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
Plaid surge on by those numbers.
Yeah...
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
Eh?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5 Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -9
So from your example you do -5-2=-7 ???
I like it as a quick-and-dirty measure of polling changes. But the rounding thing is too quick and too dirty.
Just flicking through, some marvellous little details along the way:
Para592...The nadir came when one witness gave a graphic account of how he had attended a polling station to cast his vote and found it a haven of tranquility, only to be confronted by Mr Hoar with absolutely incontrovertible evidence that the witness had, in fact, voted by post well before polling day and could not have voted in person on the day
This will prove quite the read, I have no doubt.
Rotherham.. people said for years that Asian men were abusing underage girls They were ignored, called racist... they were right
Tower Hamlets... people said for years that the voting was fraudulent and Rahman was corrupt They were ignored, called racist... they were right
The judge in this case seems to consider such reticence a major concern to be addressed, given several references in the afterword, which seems more likely to be read than much of the underlying detail in this case. I suspect the final paragraph will be much quoted:
para686 Events of recent months in contexts very different from electoral malpractice have starkly demonstrated what happens when those in authority are afraid to confront wrongdoing for fear of allegations of racism and Islamophobia. Even in the multicultural society which is 21st century Britain, the law must be applied fairly and equally to everyone. Otherwise we are lost.
Anyone in the real world with an open mind has known this for years.
Dogmatic multiculturalists just refused to see it. Trevor Phillips, the leading Multiculturalist for many years, should be knighted for having the guts to admit it was all bollocks
I will freely admit I was probably one of them. The first time I recall hearing someone talk about grooming gangs of asian men it was the leader of the EDL I believe, and obviously he was presented as and I took him to be, a racist nutbag. Now, I'm not about to start taking what they say as gospel, or think in anyway their 'solutions' are the way to go, but I like to think now if such claims emerged, I would not instinctively dismiss them just because of the source.
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
Plaid surge on by those numbers.
Yeah...
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
Eh?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5 Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -9
Okay, but when polls report whole numbers, they've usually rounded from a decimal, right? So if you just add them all together you end up compounding the rounding errors way more than is necessary. Your numbers don't even have to come close to adding to zero (not that you'd expect them to exactly, but there'd be some reasonable margin around zero you'd expect to be within).
Wouldn't it make more sense to add the raw, unrounded numbers, then do the rounding of the whole sum?
Cant be bothered
Its measuring which way the wind is blowing, it could be better or worse for each party but unlikely after 8 polls that 8 were worse and none better because of rounding or vice versa
Be my guest if you want to do your own, more precise, version!
The first thing I spotted was the judge's explanation of the voting system used in Tower Hamlets, which won't exactly meet with universal agreement here.:
"The drawback of this system is that it is possible for candidate A to receive 49.9% of the first preference against his main rival B’s 20% (or even 10%) but for B to receive all the second preference votes of the eliminated candidates and to be elected. In effect the election is won by the voters’ second choice of candidate."
Point 5 is a nonsense.
Any Labour or UKIP? posters up in Hillsborough by the way - can see some of Blunkett's old personal vote heading there. 1-100 Labour doesn't tempt
Not my area. I'm in the Brightside half of Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough. I've seen a few Labour posters up in windows, but no billboards.
A few years ago, I discovered that the local BNP head was living in an ex-council house, a short walk from here. He's dead now, and I haven't seen any BNP advertising since, but his supporters are still around.
"The EDL is a racist organisation: therefore anyone who criticises Mr Rahman is giving aid and comfort to the EDL: therefore anyone who gives aid and comfort to the EDL is himself a Racist: therefore it is racist to criticise Mr Rahman. This series of propositions informed all the responses of Mr Rahman and his team to criticisms and may be taken to be an epitome of the thought processes of Mr Alibor Choudhury."
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
Plaid surge on by those numbers.
Yeah...
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
Eh?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5 Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -9
The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisation
This week
Con -9 Lab -4 UKIP +8 LD +1 Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
Plaid surge on by those numbers.
Yeah...
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
Eh?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5 Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -9
Okay, but when polls report whole numbers, they've usually rounded from a decimal, right? So if you just add them all together you end up compounding the rounding errors way more than is necessary. Your numbers don't even have to come close to adding to zero (not that you'd expect them to exactly, but there'd be some reasonable margin around zero you'd expect to be within).
Wouldn't it make more sense to add the raw, unrounded numbers, then do the rounding of the whole sum?
Cant be bothered
Its measuring which way the wind is blowing, it could be better or worse for each party but unlikely after 8 polls that 8 were worse and none better because of rounding or vice versa
Be my guest if you want to do your own, more precise, version!
I see that shadsy has come up with an ingenious way of parting punters from their money. I'm not putting any money on this. If I were going to do so, I'd choose Reading East. Labour are at 7/1 best price to take this seat and it's second on the list.
Comments
Great read! Your blog is really interesting. I thought you might like the filmed programme- ‘QuestionDine 2015: Election Candidates with chips’.
In the short video, prospective parliamentary candidates sit down for supper with young volunteers to discuss the big political ideas .From immigration, economic growth and the EU to free speech, humanitarian intervention and building homes ourselves; they put cracking questions to candidates. But, do they get answers they are looking for? You decide.
You can watch the short video here: http://www.worldbytes.org/questiondine-2015-election-candidates-with-chips/
We would be delighted to get your feedback/comments on the video and would very grateful if you would embed the video and share this programme with your friends and networks who may be interested.
Thank you.
There are biases built into the constituency markets too, though these are less extreme. I looked at this in January:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/reality-check-testing-betting-markets.html
Panelbase poll LAB 34% CON 31% UKIP 17% LDEM 7% GRN 4%
Over the at Express, UKIP are tilting at some pretty big windmills.
They reckon they have chances in Aylesbury (12,000 tory maj) and North West Cambridgeshire (16,000 tory maj).
Also Hartlepool (5,500 labour maj).
UKIP up again.
If you can't be arsed to tailor your comment to the blog you're posting it on then I can't be arsed to watch your video.
Thank you.
This election is tortuous, mainly because of the SLAB collapse. This is the main defining (political) point - economically the deficit seems to be under control with the tories .
The fact that this collapse was not expected does not mean the consequences should be ignored. Was it Dair earlier who was talking about proper representation with taxation? The SNP will have no proper authority to be in govt with labour over English only matters and Scottish only matters are devolved.
But leaving aside the democratic deficit - the SNP will impose far hard left policies wherever they can lay their hands on the levers of power. Whatever happens in Scottish constituencies is up top the Scots - but if English voters want no part of that then they need to vote tory. This was the first big image of this election and the Tories were wise to emphasise it from the start.
If the Labour vote is collapsing in Scotland (If) then English voters need to be made aware of it. Of course some left wing socialists will be happy to rise with the tide - hence this election is tortuous. Are the polls picking up on that?
The Tories must be apocalyptic that the government funded IFS are giving their budget the worst review and the SNP by far the best.
He objects that the IFS think Labour's plan is a balanced budget rather than a current surplus.
What is even more interesting he is certainly correct. The IFS seem to have assumed a freeze in Labour's non prtected Departments; in fact Labour are proposing cuts.
That is pretty slipshod from the IFS. Mind you it is further bad news for Labour in Scotland who have (like the IFS) never got around to accepting the fact that Labour are actually proposing cuts!
That's not to say that new is wrong, but it's interesting.
The question is - Will PB Tories accept yet another failure in the Tory campaigning or claim that things will "swing late and swing hard" ((C) James Francis Murphy 2015).
At close of play yesterday 7 polls had been published this week, and the SPUD was
Con -7
Lab -4
UKIP +7
LD +2
Green -4
After todays Panelbase, the scores are
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
But the UKIP fade/Tory campaign success "feeling" is the PB meme
Nope. I think you guys are starting to come with a late run. Trouble is, it's at the expense of the tories.
https://trialbyjeory.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/judgment.pdf
NW Cambs is definitely one UKIP are going big on
You should focus on the degree of error, not where the error happened to be in 2010. The same is true when considering past performance of the polls.
In other words, there is more uncertainty (in EITHER direction), than some people seem to think. Beware of spurious accuracy in predictions.
At least a hemi demi semi quaver is a thing.
O/T
Do we have any official newspaper endorsements yet?
A couple seem pretty obvious (Sun:Tory, Mirror:Labour, Express: UKIP). The interesting ones could be the Evening Standard and FT. FT backed Labour in 1992 so wouldn't be a huge shock, and although the Standard leans right its readership seems to be going the opposite way this time.
If you're late to the Ed party though, take 6-5 Ed Balls next Chancellor, and 7-1 Harriet DPM.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-chancellor
They all know, and they don;t care. They either hate Dave with a passion, or they don't trust him.
Many thanks.
The only small print is that LDs have to get more than 4xUKIP so 6 UKIP & 24 LD is a win for me
That is curious.
It might perhaps chime with UKIP getting more ex-labour voters who have stopped voting at all, rather than 2010 converts in those seats. Their likelihood to vote would then be scaled down for polls.
---
This suggests that UKIP are going to outperform their national polling. Very important for my UKIP vote share bets!
Para592...The nadir came when one witness gave a graphic account of how he had attended a polling station to cast his vote and found it a haven of tranquility, only to be confronted by Mr Hoar with absolutely incontrovertible evidence that the witness had, in fact, voted by post well before polling day and could not have voted in person on the day
This will prove quite the read, I have no doubt.
They were ignored, called racist... they were right
Tower Hamlets... people said for years that the voting was fraudulent and Rahman was corrupt
They were ignored, called racist... they were right
The first thing I spotted was the judge's explanation of the voting system used in Tower Hamlets, which won't exactly meet with universal agreement here.:
"The drawback of this system is that it is possible for candidate A to receive 49.9% of the
first preference against his main rival B’s 20% (or even 10%) but for B to receive all the second preference votes of the eliminated candidates and to be elected. In effect the election is won by the voters’ second choice of candidate."
Zero posters around the constituency (I had a good look), could indicate low turnout and shy UKIP.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
Any Labour or UKIP? posters up in Hillsborough by the way - can see some of Blunkett's old personal vote heading there. 1-100 Labour doesn't tempt
Big Labour poster up in Darnall btw.
Maybe, maybe not. The great unknown in this campaign is how WWC labour voters really view UKIP. Every potential UKIP labour fight seems to have been studiously avoided by the pollsters.
Which will be the highest entry on this list to return a Labour MP?
So, if Labour fail in Kettering and Reading East, but win Enfield Southgate, then that is the winner and everything else on the list is a loser, irrespective of results further down.
Kettering 16/1
Reading East 16/1
Enfield Southgate 16/1
Glasgow Central 16/1
Watford 12/1
Great Yarmouth 16/1
Thanet South 10/1
Loughborough 16/1
Cambridge 16/1
Ilford North 12/1
Brighton Pavilion 16/1
Bristol West 16/1
Sheffield Hallam 16/1
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 16/1
Worcester 16/1
Cannock Chase 16/1
Birmingham Yardley 16/1
Renfrewshire East 16/1
Harrow East 16/1
Stockton South 16/1
Wirral West 20/1
Croydon Central 20/1
Broxtowe 20/1
Hampstead & Kilburn 20/1
Bootle 33/1
para686 Events of recent months in contexts very different from electoral malpractice have starkly demonstrated what happens when those in authority are afraid to confront wrongdoing for fear of allegations of racism and Islamophobia. Even in the multicultural society which is 21st century Britain, the law must be applied fairly and equally to everyone. Otherwise we are lost.
The average of the phone polls gives a Labour score of 32.5%, which compares to a March average of 33.8%
Perhaps. It could work in UKIP's favour if labour aren't looking. I bet they are, though.
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/do-you-want-a-flake-and-an-independent-scotland-with-that
Bristol West I reckon.
Sporting Index spreads
Con 188-192
Lab 360-364
LD 65-68
Actual result a few days later:
Con 198
Lab 355
LD 62
Con underestimated, Lab and LD overestimated
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/04/29/the-money-goes-on-charles/
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5
Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -9
Obviously the forced Acronym is satire but that's all
Dogmatic multiculturalists just refused to see it. Trevor Phillips, the leading Multiculturalist for many years, should be knighted for having the guts to admit it was all bollocks
Btw, my money would be on Simon Hughes' seat at Bermondsey.
Wouldn't it make more sense to add the raw, unrounded numbers, then do the rounding of the whole sum?
"The EDL is a racist organisation: therefore anyone who criticises Mr Rahman is giving aid and comfort to the EDL: therefore anyone who gives aid and comfort to the EDL is himself a Racist: therefore it is racist to criticise Mr Rahman. This series of propositions informed all the responses of Mr Rahman and his team to criticisms and may be taken to be an epitome of the thought processes of Mr Alibor Choudhury."
Its measuring which way the wind is blowing, it could be better or worse for each party but unlikely after 8 polls that 8 were worse and none better because of rounding or vice versa
Be my guest if you want to do your own, more precise, version!
A few years ago, I discovered that the local BNP head was living in an ex-council house, a short walk from here. He's dead now, and I haven't seen any BNP advertising since, but his supporters are still around.