politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On election day 2010 the betting markets had CON with a 100
Comments
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Hi there,
Great read! Your blog is really interesting. I thought you might like the filmed programme- ‘QuestionDine 2015: Election Candidates with chips’.
In the short video, prospective parliamentary candidates sit down for supper with young volunteers to discuss the big political ideas .From immigration, economic growth and the EU to free speech, humanitarian intervention and building homes ourselves; they put cracking questions to candidates. But, do they get answers they are looking for? You decide.
You can watch the short video here: http://www.worldbytes.org/questiondine-2015-election-candidates-with-chips/
We would be delighted to get your feedback/comments on the video and would very grateful if you would embed the video and share this programme with your friends and networks who may be interested.
Thank you.-2 -
I regard the current "Most Seats" prices and Sporting Index spreads as absurd. One of my biggest open positions at the moment is on Labour getting most seats. I reckon I have a 50:50 chance of collecting on this.Casino_Royale said:Oh dear. OGH not too happy with Antifrank then!
There are biases built into the constituency markets too, though these are less extreme. I looked at this in January:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/reality-check-testing-betting-markets.html0 -
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 26s26 seconds ago
Panelbase poll LAB 34% CON 31% UKIP 17% LDEM 7% GRN 4%0 -
BOOM!Pulpstar said:Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 26s26 seconds ago
Panelbase poll LAB 34% CON 31% UKIP 17% LDEM 7% GRN 4%
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True. But there's been about 4% national Lab-Con fallback too. I'm not saying my model is right and that the Tories should be favs, but I do think it's a case where a lot of weight has been put on an old poll.Pulpstar said:
There'll be some green fallback too.Tissue_Price said:
The narrowest margin I currently have the Tories holding in my model is Waveney.peter_from_putney said:In the previous thread, OGH takes it as being such a foregone conclusion that the Tories will lose all their 26 most vulnerable seats to Labour that he doesn't even bother to list them.
11/4 looks fair given the UKIP fallback.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/waveney/0 -
I'm glad I'm not the only one who thought that.Ishmael_X said:
Surely she'd want to short Troy, or is my Alzheimer's kicking in?edmundintokyo said:From someone calles slatestarcodex on Twitter:
APOLLO: I curse you to always see the future, yet never be believed.
CASSANDRA: Whatever. *makes killing in prediction markets, buys Troy*0 -
God loves a trier.
Over the at Express, UKIP are tilting at some pretty big windmills.
They reckon they have chances in Aylesbury (12,000 tory maj) and North West Cambridgeshire (16,000 tory maj).
Also Hartlepool (5,500 labour maj).0 -
Pulpstar said:
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 26s26 seconds ago
Panelbase poll LAB 34% CON 31% UKIP 17% LDEM 7% GRN 4%
UKIP up again.0 -
Hi there,worldwrite said:Hi there,
Great read! Your blog is really interesting. I thought you might like the filmed programme- ‘QuestionDine 2015: Election Candidates with chips’.
In the short video, prospective parliamentary candidates sit down for supper with young volunteers to discuss the big political ideas .From immigration, economic growth and the EU to free speech, humanitarian intervention and building homes ourselves; they put cracking questions to candidates. But, do they get answers they are looking for? You decide.
You can watch the short video here: http://www.worldbytes.org/questiondine-2015-election-candidates-with-chips/
We would be delighted to get your feedback/comments on the video and would very grateful if you would embed the video and share this programme with your friends and networks who may be interested.
Thank you.
If you can't be arsed to tailor your comment to the blog you're posting it on then I can't be arsed to watch your video.
Thank you.0 -
Knock 5 off the UKIP score as this is Panelbase, add 1 to Lab and 4 to Con.0
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The pop of another head exploding.TheWatcher said:
I see his SNP lines are really getting under your skin.surbiton said:
Yes. The arsehole can do that for another 14 days.TOPPING said:
He is playing the exquisitely awful (for Lab) Lab/SNP situation 1,000 ways. He in all probability comes off-stage/takes off the mike and has a fit of uncontrollable giggles.scotslass said:Just a reflection on what a total hypocrite Osborne is.
He has just attacked Labour and SNP for not proposing a formal coalition ie exactly what he previously demanded Milliband did. Breathtaking andf totally desperate.
Shows why Milliband should have told them to take a hike when the Tories and their allies originally pressurised them!
This election is tortuous, mainly because of the SLAB collapse. This is the main defining (political) point - economically the deficit seems to be under control with the tories .
The fact that this collapse was not expected does not mean the consequences should be ignored. Was it Dair earlier who was talking about proper representation with taxation? The SNP will have no proper authority to be in govt with labour over English only matters and Scottish only matters are devolved.
But leaving aside the democratic deficit - the SNP will impose far hard left policies wherever they can lay their hands on the levers of power. Whatever happens in Scottish constituencies is up top the Scots - but if English voters want no part of that then they need to vote tory. This was the first big image of this election and the Tories were wise to emphasise it from the start.
If the Labour vote is collapsing in Scotland (If) then English voters need to be made aware of it. Of course some left wing socialists will be happy to rise with the tide - hence this election is tortuous. Are the polls picking up on that?
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UKIP must be fuming that the IFS ignored them in tallying up the various party budgets.
The Tories must be apocalyptic that the government funded IFS are giving their budget the worst review and the SNP by far the best.0 -
I see that Milliband has attacked the IFS on PA saying "I don't accept the assumptions on three different things"
He objects that the IFS think Labour's plan is a balanced budget rather than a current surplus.
What is even more interesting he is certainly correct. The IFS seem to have assumed a freeze in Labour's non prtected Departments; in fact Labour are proposing cuts.
That is pretty slipshod from the IFS. Mind you it is further bad news for Labour in Scotland who have (like the IFS) never got around to accepting the fact that Labour are actually proposing cuts!0 -
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/polling-divergence-phone-versus-online-and-established-versus-new/Pulpstar said:Knock 5 off the UKIP score as this is Panelbase, add 1 to Lab and 4 to Con.
That's not to say that new is wrong, but it's interesting.0 -
Wow those English voters are just rushing to the party who can stop the SNP. UKIP apparenttly.Pulpstar said:Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 26s26 seconds ago
Panelbase poll LAB 34% CON 31% UKIP 17% LDEM 7% GRN 4%
The question is - Will PB Tories accept yet another failure in the Tory campaigning or claim that things will "swing late and swing hard" ((C) James Francis Murphy 2015).0 -
I have a list of other seats that I would like the Express to mention, so that I can lay bets on Betfair.taffys said:God loves a trier.
Over the at Express, UKIP are tilting at some pretty big windmills.
They reckon they have chances in Aylesbury (12,000 tory maj) and North West Cambridgeshire (16,000 tory maj).
Also Hartlepool (5,500 labour maj).0 -
Yes it is. But presumably a Labour candidate would want to be coming top of the poll and given some of Galloway's associations might be wary of getting support from those who might well put off other voter i.e. the Livingstone - Qaradawi problem.Danny565 said:I don't understand the talk of Galloway "splitting the vote" in the mayoral election, the electoral system is still AV isn't it?
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Oh please everyone accept my most humble apologies for not updating SPUD last night... I had a date would you believe?!
At close of play yesterday 7 polls had been published this week, and the SPUD was
Con -7
Lab -4
UKIP +7
LD +2
Green -4
After todays Panelbase, the scores are
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
But the UKIP fade/Tory campaign success "feeling" is the PB meme
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Try Me!antifrank said:
I have a list of other seats that I would like the Express to mention, so that I can lay bets on Betfair.taffys said:God loves a trier.
Over the at Express, UKIP are tilting at some pretty big windmills.
They reckon they have chances in Aylesbury (12,000 tory maj) and North West Cambridgeshire (16,000 tory maj).
Also Hartlepool (5,500 labour maj).0 -
I don't think I'd tempt you with any of the ones I'm thinking of at the prices I'm hoping for.isam said:
Try Me!antifrank said:
I have a list of other seats that I would like the Express to mention, so that I can lay bets on Betfair.taffys said:God loves a trier.
Over the at Express, UKIP are tilting at some pretty big windmills.
They reckon they have chances in Aylesbury (12,000 tory maj) and North West Cambridgeshire (16,000 tory maj).
Also Hartlepool (5,500 labour maj).0 -
''But the UKIP fade/Tory campaign success "feeling" is the PB meme''
Nope. I think you guys are starting to come with a late run. Trouble is, it's at the expense of the tories.0 -
some light reading from Tower Hamlets for the pb legal eagles.
https://trialbyjeory.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/judgment.pdf0 -
Well, I wouldn't expect the price to be as off as last time re the gap, but they still don't look right.0
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I'm curious how you've got this figure as I can't think of any poll that's had the Tories down 9 or 7, how are you calculating this?isam said:Oh please everyone accept my most humble apologies for not updating SPUD last night... I had a date would you believe?!
At close of play yesterday 7 polls had been published this week, and the SPUD was
Con -7
Lab -4
UKIP +7
LD +2
Green -4
After todays Panelbase, the scores are
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
But the UKIP fade/Tory campaign success "feeling" is the PB meme0 -
Very good post.Cyclefree said:If the Tories are serious about winning they need to trumpet what has been achieved - and not just go on about the SNP. The Scots are entitled to vote for whoever they want and since we still have a Union (just about) we will need to live with and deal with the consequences.
Inflation at zero; record employment; good growth; tax receipts up and those at the bottom end paying less tax. Considering where the economy was in 2010 and where other EU countries now are, this is encouraging.
I simply don't believe that had Labour kept power, we would be in this position now and fear that if Labour were to regain power they would put this at risk. Labour - for all that they go on about budget discipline and the rest - have never in my lifetime appeared to understand that money has to be earned (even if you can borrow at low rates), that it belongs to us and needs to be spent wisely ("Never forget that it is the taxpayers' money" should be tattooed on their foreheads) and that spending money efficiently to achieve the best outcome is far far more important than just spending or spending more than the other lot.
But my fundamental objections to them are not about the economy but about the way they have turned from their Methodist - on the side of the working man roots into a statist, corporatist and authoritarian party whose instincts seem to me to be that people exist for the state's benefit rather than, as I believe, that the state should exist as the servant of the people. And who seem to view people not as individuals but as members of communities either to be talked at through self-appointed leaders or tarred with some broad brush characteristic.
We badly need a good sensible and thoughtful social democratic/left of centre party. Labour have not done the hard thinking required to turn them into that party, unfortunately.
I do have some quite serious reservations about some Tory policies e.g. on IHT and the right to buy for housing associations. I also worry about the pension freedoms. I fear that in a few years that will prove to be the germ of another gigantic mis-selling scandal. I worry about the way it has become easier for the rich to insulate themselves from the fact that most people aren't rich and that this can lead to a certain myopia about what life is and should be like for most of us.
I have to confess that I rather like the fact that the Lib Dems are in government. Sometimes, I feel that I am rather more positive about them than they seem to be themselves! If the coalition continued I would not be disappointed. But, as OGH says, the coalition is not on the ballot paper. A pity.
Still, Rahman being thrown out of politics makes today a good day. And the sun is shining.0 -
Its the aggregate changes on the week calculated by comparing each poll to the previous one from that pollster.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm curious how you've got this figure as I can't think of any poll that's had the Tories down 9 or 7, how are you calculating this?isam said:Oh please everyone accept my most humble apologies for not updating SPUD last night... I had a date would you believe?!
At close of play yesterday 7 polls had been published this week, and the SPUD was
Con -7
Lab -4
UKIP +7
LD +2
Green -4
After todays Panelbase, the scores are
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
But the UKIP fade/Tory campaign success "feeling" is the PB meme0 -
I wouldn't read too much into this one poll but if you're an English voter scared of the SNP, "Vote UKIP to stand up for the English" actually feels more intuitive than "Vote Con to stop Lab getting lots of votes but not enough and needing the SNP".Dair said:
Wow those English voters are just rushing to the party who can stop the SNP. UKIP apparenttly.Pulpstar said:Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 26s26 seconds ago
Panelbase poll LAB 34% CON 31% UKIP 17% LDEM 7% GRN 4%0 -
Still two weeks to go...0
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You never know!antifrank said:
I don't think I'd tempt you with any of the ones I'm thinking of at the prices I'm hoping for.isam said:
Try Me!antifrank said:
I have a list of other seats that I would like the Express to mention, so that I can lay bets on Betfair.taffys said:God loves a trier.
Over the at Express, UKIP are tilting at some pretty big windmills.
They reckon they have chances in Aylesbury (12,000 tory maj) and North West Cambridgeshire (16,000 tory maj).
Also Hartlepool (5,500 labour maj).
NW Cambs is definitely one UKIP are going big on
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I see some punters are drawing the wrong conclusion from Mike's header.
You should focus on the degree of error, not where the error happened to be in 2010. The same is true when considering past performance of the polls.
In other words, there is more uncertainty (in EITHER direction), than some people seem to think. Beware of spurious accuracy in predictions.0 -
It certainly is, shame Cyclefree isn't on the ballot paper.Casino_Royale said:
Very good post.Cyclefree said:If the Tories are serious about winning they need to trumpet what has been achieved - and not just go on about the SNP. The Scots are entitled to vote for whoever they want and since we still have a Union (just about) we will need to live with and deal with the consequences.
Inflation at zero; record employment; good growth; tax receipts up and those at the bottom end paying less tax. Considering where the economy was in 2010 and where other EU countries now are, this is encouraging.
I simply don't believe that had Labour kept power, we would be in this position now and fear that if Labour were to regain power they would put this at risk. Labour - for all that they go on about budget discipline and the rest - have never in my lifetime appeared to understand that money has to be earned (even if you can borrow at low rates), that it belongs to us and needs to be spent wisely ("Never forget that it is the taxpayers' money" should be tattooed on their foreheads) and that spending money efficiently to achieve the best outcome is far far more important than just spending or spending more than the other lot.
But my fundamental objections to them are not about the economy but about the way they have turned from their Methodist - on the side of the working man roots into a statist, corporatist and authoritarian party whose instincts seem to me to be that people exist for the state's benefit rather than, as I believe, that the state should exist as the servant of the people. And who seem to view people not as individuals but as members of communities either to be talked at through self-appointed leaders or tarred with some broad brush characteristic.
We badly need a good sensible and thoughtful social democratic/left of centre party. Labour have not done the hard thinking required to turn them into that party, unfortunately.
I do have some quite serious reservations about some Tory policies e.g. on IHT and the right to buy for housing associations. I also worry about the pension freedoms. I fear that in a few years that will prove to be the germ of another gigantic mis-selling scandal. I worry about the way it has become easier for the rich to insulate themselves from the fact that most people aren't rich and that this can lead to a certain myopia about what life is and should be like for most of us.
I have to confess that I rather like the fact that the Lib Dems are in government. Sometimes, I feel that I am rather more positive about them than they seem to be themselves! If the coalition continued I would not be disappointed. But, as OGH says, the coalition is not on the ballot paper. A pity.
Still, Rahman being thrown out of politics makes today a good day. And the sun is shining.0 -
I've seen "far-left" and "hard-left", but never the two together. Bravo! Perhaps add "radical" next time too?Flightpath1 said:...
But leaving aside the democratic deficit - the SNP will impose far hard left policies wherever they can lay their hands on the levers of power.
...
At least a hemi demi semi quaver is a thing.0 -
EICIPM looking more far likely again all the time the UKIP vote firms up. With all the furore about Nicola, the Vote Nigel get Ed meme has been overlooked. The Lab/Lib rather than Lab/SNP option might have some value. However I wonder how many Kipper voters actually realise they are unintentionally about to install a very europhile Labour led government for the next five years0
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The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
O/T
Do we have any official newspaper endorsements yet?
A couple seem pretty obvious (Sun:Tory, Mirror:Labour, Express: UKIP). The interesting ones could be the Evening Standard and FT. FT backed Labour in 1992 so wouldn't be a huge shock, and although the Standard leans right its readership seems to be going the opposite way this time.0 -
A very small crisp?OblitusSumMe said:
I've seen "far-left" and "hard-left", but never the two together. Bravo! Perhaps add "radical" next time too?Flightpath1 said:...
But leaving aside the democratic deficit - the SNP will impose far hard left policies wherever they can lay their hands on the levers of power.
...
At least a hemi demi semi quaver is a thing.0 -
The 6-4 on Ed for PM is looking big now.The last 2 weeks in the vital 6 pointers will test the success of Arnie Graf's community organsising model in the ground organisation to achieve a higher differential vote based on a higher contact rate.0
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I'm teasing you.antifrank said:
I regard the current "Most Seats" prices and Sporting Index spreads as absurd. One of my biggest open positions at the moment is on Labour getting most seats. I reckon I have a 50:50 chance of collecting on this.Casino_Royale said:Oh dear. OGH not too happy with Antifrank then!
There are biases built into the constituency markets too, though these are less extreme. I looked at this in January:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/reality-check-testing-betting-markets.html0 -
6-4 is long gonevolcanopete said:The 6-4 on Ed for PM is looking big now.The last 2 weeks in the vital 6 pointers will test the success of Arnie Graf's community organsising model in the ground organisation to achieve a higher differential vote based on a higher contact rate.
If you're late to the Ed party though, take 6-5 Ed Balls next Chancellor, and 7-1 Harriet DPM.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-chancellor0 -
''However I wonder how many Kipper voters realise they are unintentionally about to install a very Europhile Labour led government for the next five years.''
They all know, and they don;t care. They either hate Dave with a passion, or they don't trust him.0 -
OK £50 at EVSQuincel said:
The only small print is that LDs have to get more than 4xUKIP so 6 UKIP & 24 LD is a win for me0 -
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
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"It’s also notable, despite the limited data, that the by-election polls (all of which are conducted by phone) that have underestimated UKIP’s vote share have tended to be in more “Labour” areas (Barnsley, Wythenshawe & Sale East and Heywood & Middleton), whereas in contests with the Conservatives (Newark, Clacton and Rochester & Strood) the polls have relatively accurately measured the UKIP vote share, or even modestly overestimated it."Tissue_Price said:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/polling-divergence-phone-versus-online-and-established-versus-new/Pulpstar said:Knock 5 off the UKIP score as this is Panelbase, add 1 to Lab and 4 to Con.
That's not to say that new is wrong, but it's interesting.
That is curious.
It might perhaps chime with UKIP getting more ex-labour voters who have stopped voting at all, rather than 2010 converts in those seats. Their likelihood to vote would then be scaled down for polls.
---
This suggests that UKIP are going to outperform their national polling. Very important for my UKIP vote share bets!
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Antifrank has on occasion said on his blog that the constituency specific betting market prices are the best guide we have to what's really going on. But I'm just teasing him really.Pulpstar said:
Why do you say this ?Casino_Royale said:Oh dear. OGH not too happy with Antifrank then!
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Just flicking through, some marvellous little details along the way:dr_spyn said:some light reading from Tower Hamlets for the pb legal eagles.
https://trialbyjeory.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/judgment.pdf
Para592...The nadir came when one witness gave a graphic account of how he had attended a polling station to cast his vote and found it a haven of tranquility, only to be confronted by Mr Hoar with absolutely incontrovertible evidence that the witness had, in fact, voted by post well before polling day and could not have voted in person on the day
This will prove quite the read, I have no doubt.0 -
The other thing that you might want to say here is that change is hard, and it often happens slower than expected. Although this may wash out for largest party markets etc, since the polls and the markets are seeing changes in opposite directions in England and Scotland.Richard_Nabavi said:I see some punters are drawing the wrong conclusion from Mike's header.
You should focus on the degree of error, not where the error happened to be in 2010. The same is true when considering past performance of the polls.
In other words, there is more uncertainty (in EITHER direction), than some people seem to think. Beware of spurious accuracy in predictions.0 -
When you look at it constituency by constituency - well it looks bad for Dave and not much better for EdCasino_Royale said:
Antifrank has on occasion said on his blog that the constituency specific betting market prices are the best guide we have to what's really going on. But I'm just teasing him really.Pulpstar said:
Why do you say this ?Casino_Royale said:Oh dear. OGH not too happy with Antifrank then!
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Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
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You may be right even though it is a somewhat risky long term strategy based on Ed being a failure in government. The likelihood is the vote on the right will still be split in 2020 leading to further five years of Labour in office.taffys said:''However I wonder how many Kipper voters realise they are unintentionally about to install a very Europhile Labour led government for the next five years.''
They all know, and they don;t care. They either hate Dave with a passion, or they don't trust him.0 -
Rotherham.. people said for years that Asian men were abusing underage girlskle4 said:
Just flicking through, some marvellous little details along the way:dr_spyn said:some light reading from Tower Hamlets for the pb legal eagles.
https://trialbyjeory.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/judgment.pdf
Para592...The nadir came when one witness gave a graphic account of how he had attended a polling station to cast his vote and found it a haven of tranquility, only to be confronted by Mr Hoar with absolutely incontrovertible evidence that the witness had, in fact, voted by post well before polling day and could not have voted in person on the day
This will prove quite the read, I have no doubt.
They were ignored, called racist... they were right
Tower Hamlets... people said for years that the voting was fraudulent and Rahman was corrupt
They were ignored, called racist... they were right
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I'm no legal eagle, but I'm reading it anyway.dr_spyn said:some light reading from Tower Hamlets for the pb legal eagles.
https://trialbyjeory.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/judgment.pdf
The first thing I spotted was the judge's explanation of the voting system used in Tower Hamlets, which won't exactly meet with universal agreement here.:
"The drawback of this system is that it is possible for candidate A to receive 49.9% of the
first preference against his main rival B’s 20% (or even 10%) but for B to receive all the second preference votes of the eliminated candidates and to be elected. In effect the election is won by the voters’ second choice of candidate."
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That's true. I think my final pre-election (GE2010) prediction was for the Tories to be on 297, LDs on 85 and Labour on 236 (or thereabouts) so I actually unpredicted the Tories at the time, and was surprised by the exit poll.Richard_Nabavi said:I see some punters are drawing the wrong conclusion from Mike's header.
You should focus on the degree of error, not where the error happened to be in 2010. The same is true when considering past performance of the polls.
In other words, there is more uncertainty (in EITHER direction), than some people seem to think. Beware of spurious accuracy in predictions.0 -
Rother Valley could spring a surprise. 6-1 Betfair is OK tbh.anotherDave said:
"It’s also notable, despite the limited data, that the by-election polls (all of which are conducted by phone) that have underestimated UKIP’s vote share have tended to be in more “Labour” areas (Barnsley, Wythenshawe & Sale East and Heywood & Middleton), whereas in contests with the Conservatives (Newark, Clacton and Rochester & Strood) the polls have relatively accurately measured the UKIP vote share, or even modestly overestimated it."Tissue_Price said:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/polling-divergence-phone-versus-online-and-established-versus-new/Pulpstar said:Knock 5 off the UKIP score as this is Panelbase, add 1 to Lab and 4 to Con.
That's not to say that new is wrong, but it's interesting.
That is curious.
It might perhaps chime with UKIP getting more ex-labour voters who have stopped voting at all, rather than 2010 converts in those seats. Their likelihood to vote would then be scaled down for polls.
---
This suggests that UKIP are going to outperform their national polling. Very important for my UKIP vote share bets!
Zero posters around the constituency (I had a good look), could indicate low turnout and shy UKIP.0 -
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
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I think Mike has been absolutely unequivocal for some time now that the spread markets overstate the Tories, they have a history of doing so and in his opinion are doing so again- thus his bet on the spread on the difference between seats.Richard_Nabavi said:I see some punters are drawing the wrong conclusion from Mike's header.
You should focus on the degree of error, not where the error happened to be in 2010. The same is true when considering past performance of the polls.
In other words, there is more uncertainty (in EITHER direction), than some people seem to think. Beware of spurious accuracy in predictions.
0 -
Point 5 is a nonsense.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:
I'm no legal eagle, but I'm reading it anyway.dr_spyn said:some light reading from Tower Hamlets for the pb legal eagles.
https://trialbyjeory.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/judgment.pdf
The first thing I spotted was the judge's explanation of the voting system used in Tower Hamlets, which won't exactly meet with universal agreement here.:
"The drawback of this system is that it is possible for candidate A to receive 49.9% of the
first preference against his main rival B’s 20% (or even 10%) but for B to receive all the second preference votes of the eliminated candidates and to be elected. In effect the election is won by the voters’ second choice of candidate."
Any Labour or UKIP? posters up in Hillsborough by the way - can see some of Blunkett's old personal vote heading there. 1-100 Labour doesn't tempt
Big Labour poster up in Darnall btw.0 -
Yes based on the current polling the markets do overstate the Tories. The question therefore becomes whether the polling is accurate and whether things will change in the next two weeks.tyson said:
I think Mike has been absolutely unequivocal for some time now that the spread markets overstate the Tories, they have a history of doing so and in his opinion are doing so again- thus his bet on the spread on the difference between seats.Richard_Nabavi said:I see some punters are drawing the wrong conclusion from Mike's header.
You should focus on the degree of error, not where the error happened to be in 2010. The same is true when considering past performance of the polls.
In other words, there is more uncertainty (in EITHER direction), than some people seem to think. Beware of spurious accuracy in predictions.0 -
''The likelihood is the vote on the right will still be split in 2020 leading to further five years of Labour in office.''
Maybe, maybe not. The great unknown in this campaign is how WWC labour voters really view UKIP. Every potential UKIP labour fight seems to have been studiously avoided by the pollsters.0 -
Got a new market up at Ladbrokes: Labour Landmines.
Which will be the highest entry on this list to return a Labour MP?
So, if Labour fail in Kettering and Reading East, but win Enfield Southgate, then that is the winner and everything else on the list is a loser, irrespective of results further down.
Kettering 16/1
Reading East 16/1
Enfield Southgate 16/1
Glasgow Central 16/1
Watford 12/1
Great Yarmouth 16/1
Thanet South 10/1
Loughborough 16/1
Cambridge 16/1
Ilford North 12/1
Brighton Pavilion 16/1
Bristol West 16/1
Sheffield Hallam 16/1
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 16/1
Worcester 16/1
Cannock Chase 16/1
Birmingham Yardley 16/1
Renfrewshire East 16/1
Harrow East 16/1
Stockton South 16/1
Wirral West 20/1
Croydon Central 20/1
Broxtowe 20/1
Hampstead & Kilburn 20/1
Bootle 33/10 -
Maybe because they made such a mess of Heywood and Middletontaffys said:''The likelihood is the vote on the right will still be split in 2020 leading to further five years of Labour in office.''
Maybe, maybe not. The great unknown in this campaign is how WWC labour voters really view UKIP. Every potential UKIP labour fight seems to have been studiously avoided by the pollsters.0 -
Its many things but not radical to demand the abolition of our nuclear deterrent.OblitusSumMe said:
I've seen "far-left" and "hard-left", but never the two together. Bravo! Perhaps add "radical" next time too?Flightpath1 said:...
But leaving aside the democratic deficit - the SNP will impose far hard left policies wherever they can lay their hands on the levers of power.
...
At least a hemi demi semi quaver is a thing.
0 -
Plaid surge on by those numbers.isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week0 -
Remind us what SPUD stands for?isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week0 -
The judge in this case seems to consider such reticence a major concern to be addressed, given several references in the afterword, which seems more likely to be read than much of the underlying detail in this case. I suspect the final paragraph will be much quoted:isam said:
Rotherham.. people said for years that Asian men were abusing underage girlskle4 said:
Just flicking through, some marvellous little details along the way:dr_spyn said:some light reading from Tower Hamlets for the pb legal eagles.
https://trialbyjeory.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/judgment.pdf
Para592...The nadir came when one witness gave a graphic account of how he had attended a polling station to cast his vote and found it a haven of tranquility, only to be confronted by Mr Hoar with absolutely incontrovertible evidence that the witness had, in fact, voted by post well before polling day and could not have voted in person on the day
This will prove quite the read, I have no doubt.
They were ignored, called racist... they were right
Tower Hamlets... people said for years that the voting was fraudulent and Rahman was corrupt
They were ignored, called racist... they were right
para686 Events of recent months in contexts very different from electoral malpractice have starkly demonstrated what happens when those in authority are afraid to confront wrongdoing for fear of allegations of racism and Islamophobia. Even in the multicultural society which is 21st century Britain, the law must be applied fairly and equally to everyone. Otherwise we are lost.0 -
Syed Kamell is the man being spoken about in Tory circles. MEP currently and fine man. Or the excellent Stephen Greenhalgh.isam said:
Sturgeon, Salmond and Galloway running London?taffys said:Galloway to run for London Mayor, if he loses in Bradford.
Talk about splitting the left leaning vote. That could let a tory in...?
As someone with a vote in this I am overjoyed Galloway will run... as you say it will surely split the racist vote between him and the Labour candidate if they are Khan or Abbot
A Non white right winger would be the best out come IMO0 -
I'm not cherry picking polls, I just don't see why people should fixate on YouGov because the Sun pay them to produce a poll every day.AllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
The average of the phone polls gives a Labour score of 32.5%, which compares to a March average of 33.8%0 -
Maybe because they made such a mess of Heywood and Middleton
Perhaps. It could work in UKIP's favour if labour aren't looking. I bet they are, though.0 -
Yeah...Pulpstar said:
Plaid surge on by those numbers.isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?0 -
A stale retread of the defining moment in #sexysocialismScott_P said:@JournoStephen: .@RuthDavidsonMSP feeds a Solero to @JamieRoss7. God, I love general elections. http://t.co/5yUyQ8PzFb
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/do-you-want-a-flake-and-an-independent-scotland-with-that0 -
Who gives a toss? isam's clearly doing it to satirise.Stereotomy said:
Yeah...Pulpstar said:
Plaid surge on by those numbers.isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?0 -
I can't speak for Mike, but see here:tyson said:I think Mike has been absolutely unequivocal for some time now that the spread markets overstate the Tories, they have a history of doing so and in his opinion are doing so again- thus his bet on the spread on the difference between seats.
Sporting Index spreads
Con 188-192
Lab 360-364
LD 65-68
Actual result a few days later:
Con 198
Lab 355
LD 62
Con underestimated, Lab and LD overestimated
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/04/29/the-money-goes-on-charles/
0 -
Eh?Stereotomy said:
Yeah...Pulpstar said:
Plaid surge on by those numbers.isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5
Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -90 -
Sam's Polling Ups & Downs!Stereotomy said:
Remind us what SPUD stands for?isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week0 -
What's your prediction EiT?edmundintokyo said:
The other thing that you might want to say here is that change is hard, and it often happens slower than expected. Although this may wash out for largest party markets etc, since the polls and the markets are seeing changes in opposite directions in England and Scotland.Richard_Nabavi said:I see some punters are drawing the wrong conclusion from Mike's header.
You should focus on the degree of error, not where the error happened to be in 2010. The same is true when considering past performance of the polls.
In other words, there is more uncertainty (in EITHER direction), than some people seem to think. Beware of spurious accuracy in predictions.
0 -
No I am not! I am interested in seeing how the polls are changing, and comparing like with like seems to be a decent way of testing thatTissue_Price said:
Who gives a toss? isam's clearly doing it to satirise.Stereotomy said:
Yeah...Pulpstar said:
Plaid surge on by those numbers.isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
Obviously the forced Acronym is satire but that's all0 -
@paulhutcheon: "It is the right thing that somebody who insulted all of Scotland's old age pensioners can't stand as a candidate,": Alex Salmond, 20100
-
Shadsy, you do realise that Kettering is 12/1 on your own constituency markets?shadsy said:Got a new market up at Ladbrokes: Labour Landmines.
Which will be the highest entry on this list to return a Labour MP?
So, if Labour fail in Kettering and Reading East, but win Enfield Southgate, then that is the winner and everything else on the list is a loser, irrespective of results further down.
Kettering 16/10 -
Anyone in the real world with an open mind has known this for years.kle4 said:
The judge in this case seems to consider such reticence a major concern to be addressed, given several references in the afterword, which seems more likely to be read than much of the underlying detail in this case. I suspect the final paragraph will be much quoted:isam said:
Rotherham.. people said for years that Asian men were abusing underage girlskle4 said:
Just flicking through, some marvellous little details along the way:dr_spyn said:some light reading from Tower Hamlets for the pb legal eagles.
https://trialbyjeory.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/judgment.pdf
Para592...The nadir came when one witness gave a graphic account of how he had attended a polling station to cast his vote and found it a haven of tranquility, only to be confronted by Mr Hoar with absolutely incontrovertible evidence that the witness had, in fact, voted by post well before polling day and could not have voted in person on the day
This will prove quite the read, I have no doubt.
They were ignored, called racist... they were right
Tower Hamlets... people said for years that the voting was fraudulent and Rahman was corrupt
They were ignored, called racist... they were right
para686 Events of recent months in contexts very different from electoral malpractice have starkly demonstrated what happens when those in authority are afraid to confront wrongdoing for fear of allegations of racism and Islamophobia. Even in the multicultural society which is 21st century Britain, the law must be applied fairly and equally to everyone. Otherwise we are lost.
Dogmatic multiculturalists just refused to see it. Trevor Phillips, the leading Multiculturalist for many years, should be knighted for having the guts to admit it was all bollocks0 -
Poster watch Southport. Guess who's winning here! Saw my first UKIP posters. Quite. a surprise. Three detached houses in a line. I somehow expected UKIPers in smart areas to only show themselves after dark. Hardly any Tories.0
-
If you want to take our money at least be good enough to provide a link to this market, there's a good chap!shadsy said:Got a new market up at Ladbrokes: Labour Landmines.
Which will be the highest entry on this list to return a Labour MP?
So, if Labour fail in Kettering and Reading East, but win Enfield Southgate, then that is the winner and everything else on the list is a loser, irrespective of results further down.
Kettering 16/1
Reading East 16/1
Enfield Southgate 16/1
Glasgow Central 16/1
Watford 12/1
Great Yarmouth 16/1
Thanet South 10/1
Loughborough 16/1
Cambridge 16/1
Ilford North 12/1
Brighton Pavilion 16/1
Bristol West 16/1
Sheffield Hallam 16/1
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 16/1
Worcester 16/1
Cannock Chase 16/1
Birmingham Yardley 16/1
Renfrewshire East 16/1
Harrow East 16/1
Stockton South 16/1
Wirral West 20/1
Croydon Central 20/1
Broxtowe 20/1
Hampstead & Kilburn 20/1
Bootle 33/1
Btw, my money would be on Simon Hughes' seat at Bermondsey.0 -
Okay, but when polls report whole numbers, they've usually rounded from a decimal, right? So if you just add them all together you end up compounding the rounding errors way more than is necessary. Your numbers don't even have to come close to adding to zero (not that you'd expect them to exactly, but there'd be some reasonable margin around zero you'd expect to be within).isam said:
Eh?Stereotomy said:
Yeah...Pulpstar said:
Plaid surge on by those numbers.isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5
Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -9
Wouldn't it make more sense to add the raw, unrounded numbers, then do the rounding of the whole sum?0 -
So from your example you do -5-2=-7 ???isam said:
Eh?Stereotomy said:
Yeah...Pulpstar said:
Plaid surge on by those numbers.isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5
Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -9
0 -
The Tower Hamlets report is somewhat blunt ...
"The EDL is a racist organisation: therefore anyone who criticises Mr Rahman is giving aid and comfort to the EDL: therefore anyone who gives aid and comfort to the EDL is himself a Racist: therefore it is racist to criticise Mr Rahman. This series of propositions informed all the responses of Mr Rahman and his team to criticisms and may be taken to be an epitome of the thought processes of Mr Alibor Choudhury."
0 -
Just because YouGov produce more polls doesn't devalue the polls themselves. It'd be brilliant if ICM decided to Poll daily but they don't.OblitusSumMe said:
I'm not cherry picking polls, I just don't see why people should fixate on YouGov because the Sun pay them to produce a poll every day.AllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
The average of the phone polls gives a Labour score of 32.5%, which compares to a March average of 33.8%0 -
I like it as a quick-and-dirty measure of polling changes. But the rounding thing is too quick and too dirty.DaemonBarber said:
So from your example you do -5-2=-7 ???isam said:
Eh?Stereotomy said:
Yeah...Pulpstar said:
Plaid surge on by those numbers.isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5
Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -90 -
I will freely admit I was probably one of them. The first time I recall hearing someone talk about grooming gangs of asian men it was the leader of the EDL I believe, and obviously he was presented as and I took him to be, a racist nutbag. Now, I'm not about to start taking what they say as gospel, or think in anyway their 'solutions' are the way to go, but I like to think now if such claims emerged, I would not instinctively dismiss them just because of the source.isam said:
Anyone in the real world with an open mind has known this for years.kle4 said:
The judge in this case seems to consider such reticence a major concern to be addressed, given several references in the afterword, which seems more likely to be read than much of the underlying detail in this case. I suspect the final paragraph will be much quoted:isam said:
Rotherham.. people said for years that Asian men were abusing underage girlskle4 said:
Just flicking through, some marvellous little details along the way:dr_spyn said:some light reading from Tower Hamlets for the pb legal eagles.
https://trialbyjeory.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/judgment.pdf
Para592...The nadir came when one witness gave a graphic account of how he had attended a polling station to cast his vote and found it a haven of tranquility, only to be confronted by Mr Hoar with absolutely incontrovertible evidence that the witness had, in fact, voted by post well before polling day and could not have voted in person on the day
This will prove quite the read, I have no doubt.
They were ignored, called racist... they were right
Tower Hamlets... people said for years that the voting was fraudulent and Rahman was corrupt
They were ignored, called racist... they were right
para686 Events of recent months in contexts very different from electoral malpractice have starkly demonstrated what happens when those in authority are afraid to confront wrongdoing for fear of allegations of racism and Islamophobia. Even in the multicultural society which is 21st century Britain, the law must be applied fairly and equally to everyone. Otherwise we are lost.
Dogmatic multiculturalists just refused to see it. Trevor Phillips, the leading Multiculturalist for many years, should be knighted for having the guts to admit it was all bollocks
0 -
Cant be botheredStereotomy said:
Okay, but when polls report whole numbers, they've usually rounded from a decimal, right? So if you just add them all together you end up compounding the rounding errors way more than is necessary. Your numbers don't even have to come close to adding to zero (not that you'd expect them to exactly, but there'd be some reasonable margin around zero you'd expect to be within).isam said:
Eh?Stereotomy said:
Yeah...Pulpstar said:
Plaid surge on by those numbers.isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5
Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -9
Wouldn't it make more sense to add the raw, unrounded numbers, then do the rounding of the whole sum?
Its measuring which way the wind is blowing, it could be better or worse for each party but unlikely after 8 polls that 8 were worse and none better because of rounding or vice versa
Be my guest if you want to do your own, more precise, version!0 -
Not my area. I'm in the Brightside half of Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough. I've seen a few Labour posters up in windows, but no billboards.Pulpstar said:
Point 5 is a nonsense.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:
I'm no legal eagle, but I'm reading it anyway.dr_spyn said:some light reading from Tower Hamlets for the pb legal eagles.
https://trialbyjeory.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/judgment.pdf
The first thing I spotted was the judge's explanation of the voting system used in Tower Hamlets, which won't exactly meet with universal agreement here.:
"The drawback of this system is that it is possible for candidate A to receive 49.9% of the
first preference against his main rival B’s 20% (or even 10%) but for B to receive all the second preference votes of the eliminated candidates and to be elected. In effect the election is won by the voters’ second choice of candidate."
Any Labour or UKIP? posters up in Hillsborough by the way - can see some of Blunkett's old personal vote heading there. 1-100 Labour doesn't tempt
A few years ago, I discovered that the local BNP head was living in an ex-council house, a short walk from here. He's dead now, and I haven't seen any BNP advertising since, but his supporters are still around.0 -
WhoahCD13 said:
The Tower Hamlets report is somewhat blunt ...
"The EDL is a racist organisation: therefore anyone who criticises Mr Rahman is giving aid and comfort to the EDL: therefore anyone who gives aid and comfort to the EDL is himself a Racist: therefore it is racist to criticise Mr Rahman. This series of propositions informed all the responses of Mr Rahman and his team to criticisms and may be taken to be an epitome of the thought processes of Mr Alibor Choudhury."0 -
Of courseDaemonBarber said:
So from your example you do -5-2=-7 ???isam said:
Eh?Stereotomy said:
Yeah...Pulpstar said:
Plaid surge on by those numbers.isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5
Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -90 -
Sure, but how will I form an acronym for POTATO?isam said:
Cant be botheredStereotomy said:
Okay, but when polls report whole numbers, they've usually rounded from a decimal, right? So if you just add them all together you end up compounding the rounding errors way more than is necessary. Your numbers don't even have to come close to adding to zero (not that you'd expect them to exactly, but there'd be some reasonable margin around zero you'd expect to be within).isam said:
Eh?Stereotomy said:
Yeah...Pulpstar said:
Plaid surge on by those numbers.isam said:
Whereas my SPUD (the best way to tell the way the political wind is blowing) does no cherry picking whatsoever.. it takes every poll and compares it with the previous poll from that organisationAllyPally_Rob said:
Nope I'm just not cherry-picking polls like you that's all. If you look at a poll of polls for Labour since the campaign started you'll get my point.OblitusSumMe said:
Ashcroft 30% and ICM 32% at the start of the week. Is your memory that short?AllyPally_Rob said:The Labour vote seems remarkably stable at the moment on around 34/35%.
This week
Con -9
Lab -4
UKIP +8
LD +1
Green -4
This is not to say the Tories wont win, just showing the direction of travel so far this week
isam, do you round and then sum, or sum and then round? If the former, why?
This is what I do.. it is simple and nothing fancy at all
On Monday ICM gave Tories 34.. their previous ICM was 39. That is -5
Today Panelbase give Tories 31.. their previous Panelbase was 33. That is -2
So far this week after 8 polls the cumulative Tory score is -9
Wouldn't it make more sense to add the raw, unrounded numbers, then do the rounding of the whole sum?
Its measuring which way the wind is blowing, it could be better or worse for each party but unlikely after 8 polls that 8 were worse and none better because of rounding or vice versa
Be my guest if you want to do your own, more precise, version!0 -
I see that shadsy has come up with an ingenious way of parting punters from their money. I'm not putting any money on this. If I were going to do so, I'd choose Reading East. Labour are at 7/1 best price to take this seat and it's second on the list.0
