politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why this could be like 1992 when the polls were simply wron
Options
Comments
-
Why would the average polling call it wrong in terms of percentage of the vote ? Because of the dodgy FPTP system where marginals decide the election, we cannot know what will happen. All the main parties will be fighting hard for these and as Grant Shapps said, only about 11,000 votes could decide the next government.
I call FPTP dodgy because it means that people living in safe seats who back a different party to the current MP, might not see it worth voting. Every vote should really count in deciding the next government. Both Labour and Tories are committed to FPTP, so I cannot see it being changed, unless we have coalitions for years and it means that PR would be more accepted.0 -
I agree with all of that but short of a majority I don't see how any of it gets Cameron closer to staying in No 10.Pulpstar said:
The Comres SW poll showed Con Gain Bath & Yeovil.DavidL said:
The Tory campaign seems to be very focussed on picking up quite a number of Lib Dems. Whilst this makes perfect electoral sense given their polling there is an element of eating your own lunch.ThomasNashe said:
I think there is a quite considerable segment of the population who'd want the present government returned, but would definitely not want to see a Con majority. Very difficult for them to determine how to vote - as OGH has said LD-Con coalition is not on the ballot paper.DavidL said:
I couldn't agree more. I suspect that an overall majority of, say, 10 would be Cameron's worst nightmare. The presence of a cohort of reliable and sane Lib Dems MPs has been critical to making this Coalition work and has kept these nutters at the far fringes where they belong.MarkSenior said:
The untrustworthy and duplicitous are those Conservative MPs who constantly undermined and voted frequently against their own government or even defected to another party .TCPoliticalBetting said:
IPClipp said:Just an impression that I have.
I suspect that your sympathies are more with the Bones and Hollobones and their ilk than the Conservatives and Lib Dems who backed the Coalition Government
As I said yesterday the key equation for the next government, using the SPIN figures, is does Lib Dem + 19 > the SNP?
If not a continuation of a Conservative government in almost any form seems very unlikely to me. The only way forward for the Tories is to increase that 19 to the high 20s by holding onto more of Labour's Con targets. All their energy should really be focussed on that.
If Yeovil is taken in particular, the Tory tail eating the Lib Dem head will be complete. Certainly the SW is looking good for the Tories with Wells, Somerton & Frome, Taunton Deane, Portsmouth South all looking likely gains. Perhaps Torbay and St Ives too as around 50-50 shots with odds against potential in Bath/Yeovil.
Camborne & Redruth, Truro & Falmouth have been good value odds on bets too down there too.0 -
You could get a job designing Conservative election posters.Dair said:
Ed will be expected to come to Bute House. The winner shouldn't be going cap in hand to the loser.TGOHF said:
I suspect Nicola has more sense than Eck and will wait for the actual results before heading to Ed's 2 kitchen house to make her demands rather than summon the chauffeur based on the findings of secret Canadians.Dair said:
0 -
It goes to show how rubbish ones own experience is (anecdotally). 29% of teachers vote tory? I'd have had a stab at 10% maximum.Tissue_Price said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPBSean_F said:
IIRC, that's a big improvement for the Conservatives on the last poll of teachers.Tissue_Price said:Sam Freedman @Samfr
TES/YouGov poll of teachers finds:
44% Labour
29% Tory
10% LD
7% UKIP
6% Greens
No link yet.
29% Tory is encouraging; you'd think it was 2.9% listening to Christine Blower.
YouGov poll of teachers with comparisons on 2010
LAB 44 +11
CON 29-2
LD 10 -17
UKIP 7 +4
GN 4+2
Down 2% [and NB UKIP +4] after introducing free schools? Just maybe the NUT have been spouting bollocks all this time?
Mind you, moving Gove was still smart politics.
0 -
I agree, but the party is in the bind that the majority of its seats are Con/LD and given its lost c60% of its support leftwards, if it wants to retain these seats it has to play to the left to a certain extent. Clegg is trying to a play a straight bat down the centre but its difficult for him when the media keeps saying "which way?".botanically_speaking said:
Well I'm one. Which makes the LibDem campaigning strategy of presenting themselves as another also-ran opposition party rather than a party of government seem strange to me. The LibDems have at least made a fist of moderating tory policies in government and now seem to want to deny they were ever at the table.ThomasNashe said:
I think there is a quite considerable segment of the population who'd want the present government returned, but would definitely not want to see a Con majority. Very difficult for them to determine how to vote - as OGH has said LD-Con coalition is not on the ballot paper.DavidL said:
I couldn't agree more. I suspect that an overall majority of, say, 10 would be Cameron's worst nightmare. The presence of a cohort of reliable and sane Lib Dems MPs has been critical to making this Coalition work and has kept these nutters at the far fringes where they belong.MarkSenior said:
The untrustworthy and duplicitous are those Conservative MPs who constantly undermined and voted frequently against their own government or even defected to another party .TCPoliticalBetting said:
I disagree but hope that the LDs take your advice. The LDs have an image with the voters as being untrustworthy and duplicituous. By attacking their partner right from the first few months of 2010 post GE they kept piling up evidence of how they are untrustworthy and duplicituous. Long may they continue doing it.PClipp said:I have the impression (but no more than that) that every time every time the Lib Dems attack the Conservatives, their polling rating goes up. And each time Clegg and his circle talk about entering another coalition, the rating goes down.
Just an impression that I have.
I suspect that your sympathies are more with the Bones and Hollobones and their ilk than the Conservatives and Lib Dems who backed the Coalition Government
I've experienced a good few elections and each time there has been an overwhelming mood for change, there's been a change of government. When there hasn't, there hasn't.
Am I alone in not sensing an overwhelming mood for change?
As you've said, there's no Con/LD coalition on the ballot paper so what can they do?
0 -
Mr. Speaking, I agree Balls is likely to win and probably increase his majority.
But it's undeniable UKIP are (nationwide) on the rise. I think the Lib Dem vote will collapse and help Balls.0 -
LOL, you could not make it up, this has to be a spoof , I am rolling about the floor.John_N said:The fact that a lot of people in Scotland will agree with what I just posted will, I predict, mean that tactical voting in Scotland on 7 May will be unprecedentedly high, as many people vote for whoever they think has got the best chance against the SNP.
Will one of the polling companies measure this? The findings would be interesting.
I know many Scots who strongly agreed with me at the time of the indyref that a SLAB-CON-LD coalition in Edinburgh would be preferable to an SNP government. And I am talking about people ranging from left-Labour to long-term readers of the 'Scotsman' newspaper.
What angers me so much is that none of the Unionist parties was able to address the issue of improving the Union.
Makes Avery sound realistic.0 -
My point is... it doesn't particularly.DavidL said:
I agree with all of that but short of a majority I don't see how any of it gets Cameron closer to staying in No 10.Pulpstar said:
The Comres SW poll showed Con Gain Bath & Yeovil.DavidL said:
The Tory campaign seems to be very focussed on picking up quite a number of Lib Dems. Whilst this makes perfect electoral sense given their polling there is an element of eating your own lunch.ThomasNashe said:
I think there is a quite considerable segment of the population who'd want the present government returned, but would definitely not want to see a Con majority. Very difficult for them to determine how to vote - as OGH has said LD-Con coalition is not on the ballot paper.DavidL said:
I couldn't agree more. I suspect that an overall majority of, say, 10 would be Cameron's worst nightmare. The presence of a cohort of reliable and sane Lib Dems MPs has been critical to making this Coalition work and has kept these nutters at the far fringes where they belong.MarkSenior said:
The untrustworthy and duplicitous are those Conservative MPs who constantly undermined and voted frequently against their own government or even defected to another party .TCPoliticalBetting said:
IPClipp said:Just an impression that I have.
I suspect that your sympathies are more with the Bones and Hollobones and their ilk than the Conservatives and Lib Dems who backed the Coalition Government
As I said yesterday the key equation for the next government, using the SPIN figures, is does Lib Dem + 19 > the SNP?
If not a continuation of a Conservative government in almost any form seems very unlikely to me. The only way forward for the Tories is to increase that 19 to the high 20s by holding onto more of Labour's Con targets. All their energy should really be focussed on that.
If Yeovil is taken in particular, the Tory tail eating the Lib Dem head will be complete. Certainly the SW is looking good for the Tories with Wells, Somerton & Frome, Taunton Deane, Portsmouth South all looking likely gains. Perhaps Torbay and St Ives too as around 50-50 shots with odds against potential in Bath/Yeovil.
Camborne & Redruth, Truro & Falmouth have been good value odds on bets too down there too.
0 -
I wonder if the sample included private schools?botanically_speaking said:
It goes to show how rubbish ones own experience is (anecdotally). 29% of teachers vote tory? I'd have had a stab at 10% maximum.Tissue_Price said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPBSean_F said:
IIRC, that's a big improvement for the Conservatives on the last poll of teachers.Tissue_Price said:Sam Freedman @Samfr
TES/YouGov poll of teachers finds:
44% Labour
29% Tory
10% LD
7% UKIP
6% Greens
No link yet.
29% Tory is encouraging; you'd think it was 2.9% listening to Christine Blower.
YouGov poll of teachers with comparisons on 2010
LAB 44 +11
CON 29-2
LD 10 -17
UKIP 7 +4
GN 4+2
Down 2% [and NB UKIP +4] after introducing free schools? Just maybe the NUT have been spouting bollocks all this time?
Mind you, moving Gove was still smart politics.0 -
My BFF as a teen was a guy with a 52" chest - he didn't work out and just genetically blessed - he went onto bomb disposal and a great bloke who was married 5x at the last count!
A disaster movie role was made for him.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, in Miliband's defence, most people look a bit dinky compared to the strongmen!
0 -
The teachers' poll represents a 13% swingback from Lab to Con since Jan 2014.0
-
No incumbency in Bath.JackW said:
Not so.Pulpstar said:
The Comres SW poll showed Con Gain Bath & Yeovil.DavidL said:
The Tory campaign seems to be very focussed on picking up quite a number of Lib Dems. Whilst this makes perfect electoral sense given their polling there is an element of eating your own lunch.ThomasNashe said:
I think there is a quite considerable segment of the population who'd want the present government returned, but would definitely not want to see a Con majority. Very difficult for them to determine how to vote - as OGH has said LD-Con coalition is not on the ballot paper.DavidL said:
I couldn't agree more. I suspect that an overall majority of, say, 10 would be Cameron's worst nightmare. The presence of a cohort of reliable and sane Lib Dems MPs has been critical to making this Coalition work and has kept these nutters at the far fringes where they belong.MarkSenior said:
The untrustworthy and duplicitous are those Conservative MPs who constantly undermined and voted frequently against their own government or even defected to another party .TCPoliticalBetting said:
I disagree but hope that the LDs take your advice. The LDs have an image with the voters as being untrustworthy and duplicituous. By attacking their partner right from the first few months of 2010 post GE they kept piling up evidence of how they are untrustworthy and duplicituous. Long may they continue doing it.PClipp said:I have the impression (but no more than that) that every time every time the Lib Dems attack the Conservatives, their polling rating goes up. And each time Clegg and his circle talk about entering another coalition, the rating goes down.
Just an impression that I have.
I suspect that your sympathies are more with the Bones and Hollobones and their ilk than the Conservatives and Lib Dems who backed the Coalition Government
As I said yesterday the key equation for the next government, using the SPIN figures, is does Lib Dem + 19 > the SNP?
If not a continuation of a Conservative government in almost any form seems very unlikely to me. The only way forward for the Tories is to increase that 19 to the high 20s by holding onto more of Labour's Con targets. All their energy should really be focussed on that.
The ComRes polling was LibDem regional and not individual seat specific and accordingly did not have named candidates.
PBers need to be more astute when assessing these polls.
I could cash out my fiver for a guaranteed profit on the Lib Dems there now, but is it worth it ?0 -
In between, we had this poll:TheScreamingEagles said:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/02/teachers-vote-labour-lead-41/0 -
They'll be the PE teachers.Pong said:
WTF? 7% of our teachers are kippers? Did they poll the cleaning staff too?Tissue_Price said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPBSean_F said:
IIRC, that's a big improvement for the Conservatives on the last poll of teachers.Tissue_Price said:Sam Freedman @Samfr
TES/YouGov poll of teachers finds:
44% Labour
29% Tory
10% LD
7% UKIP
6% Greens
No link yet.
29% Tory is encouraging; you'd think it was 2.9% listening to Christine Blower.
YouGov poll of teachers with comparisons on 2010
LAB 44 +11
CON 29-2
LD 10 -17
UKIP 7 +4
GN 4+2
Down 2% [and NB UKIP +4] after introducing free schools? Just maybe the NUT have been spouting bollocks all this time?
Mind you, moving Gove was still smart politics.0 -
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
CORRECTION YouGov poll of teachers with comparisons on 2010
LAB, 44, 11
CON, 29,-4
LD, 10, -17
UKIP, 7, 4
GN, 4, 2
A 7.5% CON to LAB swing
A 6.5% LD to CON swing. Watch out, Vince.0 -
Has there been a thread predicting the election result and if so, is there a link to see what the predictions were.0
-
But why? The most accurate poll one month out is the one whose result, plus or minus shifts in opinion over the next month, equals the result. "Closest one month out" is only praise for the poll, if one treats it as axiomatic that public opinion never changes in the month before an election.TGOHF said:
Yes - perhaps prizes for gold standard could be awarded for not just "best last poll" but "closest to the final result 1 month out" etc..MarkHopkins said:David_Evershed said:Is Keiran Pedley displaying the same wishful thinking as some posters on PB.
Holding out some hope for Shy Tories without any evidence seems like political propaganda.
Main contributors to articles like the above should perhaps be required to declare their political allegiance as a health warning.
Note: Polling companies only claim to assess the way people will vote at the time the poll is done. They do not claim to predict the outcome of the election. So the outcome of the election can not be used to show their earlier pre-election poll was wrong.
"So the outcome of the election can not be used to show their earlier pre-election poll was wrong."
True, but that rather negates the point of bothering with polls in the first place.
Polls have to mean something useful (however defined) that is reflected in the later election - otherwise they are a waste time and money.
Relatedly I don't see why the question doesn't change from "if there were a GE tomorrow how would you vote" to "there is a GE on May 7, how will you vote?" during the campaign - not a major difference but it would strip a bit of hypotheticality out of the equation, which must be beneficial.
0 -
Damn, that's useful!TheScreamingEagles said:
39% of the 2015 ukip vote is from 2010 tories, with the rest split roughly evenly between UKIP/LAB/LD/BNP&Other
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2015-04-20/StratLabApr19Table-01.png0 -
That was commissioned by the NUT, this one is the TES.antifrank said:
In between, we had this poll:TheScreamingEagles said:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/02/teachers-vote-labour-lead-41/
The NUT poll asked Voting Intention as Question 26!0 -
My woodwork teacher at school would definitely now be a kipper. He banged on endlessly about "British standards".ThomasNashe said:
They'll be the PE teachers.Pong said:
WTF? 7% of our teachers are kippers? Did they poll the cleaning staff too?Tissue_Price said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPBSean_F said:
IIRC, that's a big improvement for the Conservatives on the last poll of teachers.Tissue_Price said:Sam Freedman @Samfr
TES/YouGov poll of teachers finds:
44% Labour
29% Tory
10% LD
7% UKIP
6% Greens
No link yet.
29% Tory is encouraging; you'd think it was 2.9% listening to Christine Blower.
YouGov poll of teachers with comparisons on 2010
LAB 44 +11
CON 29-2
LD 10 -17
UKIP 7 +4
GN 4+2
Down 2% [and NB UKIP +4] after introducing free schools? Just maybe the NUT have been spouting bollocks all this time?
Mind you, moving Gove was still smart politics.0 -
Miss Plato, ah, genetics. I'm not at immediate risk of obesity myself [as a teenager I could touch my spine through my stomach, not something I recommend]. Recently my weight declined for no apparent reason [the BBC had a weight thingummyjig which revealed the nation whose average was closest to my own weight was Eritrea, an African dictatorship which I believe has a shortage of food].0
-
@Morris_Dancer That record
Game of Thrones actor who played The Mountain becomes World's Strongest Viking as he smashes 1,000-year-old record by carrying 1,433lbs log
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2939595/Game-Thrones-actor-played-Mountain-World-s-Strongest-Viking-smashes-1-000-year-old-record-carrying-1-433lbs-log.html#ixzz3XqWvfxbn
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook0 -
My dad is a teacher and a kipperPong said:
WTF? 7% of our teachers are kippers? Did they poll the cleaning staff too?Tissue_Price said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPBSean_F said:
IIRC, that's a big improvement for the Conservatives on the last poll of teachers.Tissue_Price said:Sam Freedman @Samfr
TES/YouGov poll of teachers finds:
44% Labour
29% Tory
10% LD
7% UKIP
6% Greens
No link yet.
29% Tory is encouraging; you'd think it was 2.9% listening to Christine Blower.
YouGov poll of teachers with comparisons on 2010
LAB 44 +11
CON 29-2
LD 10 -17
UKIP 7 +4
GN 4+2
Down 2% [and NB UKIP +4] after introducing free schools? Just maybe the NUT have been spouting bollocks all this time?
Mind you, moving Gove was still smart politics.0 -
Con gain Brighton Pavilion?chestnut said:
"Some 7.5 million eligible citizens have until midnight tonight to register to vote in May’s election.taffys said:I heard on the radio today that up to 7 million people have not registered to vote this time around, as we approach the deadline.
This is surely going to affect the vote big time...??
Millions of citizens face being turned away on May 7 because they are not on the electoral roll.
A change of system has led to the number of registered voters dropping by more than 900,000 in a year, with the list of voters in the UK falling by 2 per cent.
The biggest falls have been among people who have moved home recently, students no longer registered to vote at their parents’ homes and teenagers voting for the first time.
The worst affected constituencies include Brighton Pavilion, the seat of the Greens’ only MP Caroline Lucas, where the number of voters fell by 7,500, and Education Secretary Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough seat – which has seen a drop of 8,500 voters.
If the voters can get to the booths without tripping over the rubbish...0 -
IIRC that NUT poll asked VI question last, after about 40 other questions.Tissue_Price said:
That was commissioned by the NUT, this one is the TES. Might explain some of it.antifrank said:
In between, we had this poll:TheScreamingEagles said:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/02/teachers-vote-labour-lead-41/
Which isn't best methodology.0 -
double post.
0 -
NB that was after Q24:Tissue_Price said:
That was commissioned by the NUT, this one is the TES.antifrank said:
In between, we had this poll:TheScreamingEagles said:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/02/teachers-vote-labour-lead-41/
The NUT poll asked Voting Intention as Question 26!
What impact are public sector cuts and austerity measures having on the children you teach and their families?
Laughable, and YouGov should be ashamed of themselves.0 -
I'd vote SNP if it meant Scotland gaining independence, and we could finally wave Bye Bye to the McSpongers, Malcolmg and the other cult followers.Dair said://twitter.com/Peston/status/590105106005303296
0 -
I'm not convinced of polls that specifically target subsets of the population- teachers, Jews, homosexuals, students.. I get the impression you'd get very different results each time if they were polled regularly.0
-
@ScottyNational: SNP Manifesto : Anger as Ed Miliband doesn't even bother to show up at the launch to clap Nicola0
-
John_N said:
So some loony English party with maybe 2 or 3 MP's would have a big part to play but a party with many multiples of that should not have. Warped sense of democracy down south it seems, what happened to all the bullsh** about Better Together and UK family etc. That just go out the window because we don't do as we are told.malcolmg said:One might ask, why on earth should a party with hardly any all-UK policies have so much power at Westminster and possibly even get seats in the cabinet? This question illustrates how, as I've said, how the English question (or the revision of the Union, if you like) will raise its head in the near future. UKIP have obviously also got a big part to play in this.
Unfortunately, the Unionist parties couldn't get it together to come up with any big ideas about how to improve the Union, which looks as if it will mean that the SNP will now win seats from them at Westminster. There is a big element of the absurd in that positon, and it comes from the pathetic, shyster, short-termist, ideas-free character not just of the SNP but of the main Unionist parties too (of one of which, namely SLAB, I happen to be a member).
John, you are obviously a Turnip. I presume a knuckle dragger given you do not like democracy. This is a UK parliament vote and last time I looked we are part of the UK and therefore able to vote and influence the UK ( will be a first I know given the crap that has represented us previously). The whole reason for wanting out is that the unionist parties have no interest in improving the UK if it is outside the M25. You just had to be a member of the soon to be extinct money grubbing , fill my pockets quick, lying toerags party.
Not happy with being shown up for what you are in Scotland , you are now going to whinge about it at UK level. We are not fighting for independence it is a UK parliament election, your Tory pals are now laughing at you , not helping you shoot yourself in the foot. Get a dummy tit or grow a pair Tory pawn.0 -
Also, am I the only one who is a bit surprised that only 21% of the green vote is coming from 2010 Lab'ers? I expected it to be a fair chunk higher.Pong said:
Damn, that's useful!TheScreamingEagles said:
39% of the 2015 ukip vote is from 2010 tories, with the rest split roughly evenly between UKIP/LAB/LD/BNP&Other
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2015-04-20/StratLabApr19Table-01.png0 -
Mr. 67, there were two, one a few days ago and another about two months before that.
Miss Plato, yes, that's the one, thanks
Mr. Price [Miss Price? Sorry for forgetting], that's rather Yes, Minister.0 -
Yes, I've said the Greens were 2010 Lib Dems, who first went to Lab, then moved to the Greens.Pong said:
Also, am I the only one who is a bit surprised that only 21% of the green vote is coming from 2010 Lab'ers? I expected it to be a fair chunk higher.Pong said:
Damn, that's useful!TheScreamingEagles said:
39% of the 2015 ukip vote is from 2010 tories, with the rest split roughly evenly between UKIP/LAB/LD/BNP&Other
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2015-04-20/StratLabApr19Table-01.png0 -
So all 2010 BNP are now UKIP and most UKIP were previously Tory, sounds about right.antifrank said:
In between, we had this poll:TheScreamingEagles said:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/02/teachers-vote-labour-lead-41/
Quite a lot of Don't Knows (looks like around 14%), most were LibDem, next highest were Tory.
0 -
It's Mr. Price. Except on the first Tuesday of the month.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 67, there were two, one a few days ago and another about two months before that.
Miss Plato, yes, that's the one, thanks
Mr. Price [Miss Price? Sorry for forgetting], that's rather Yes, Minister.0 -
Mr. Price, ah, I'll try and remember that you're of the Peter the Punter persuasion.0
-
An ectomorph, the bane of a wannabe body builder. A friend of mine was 6' and 8st. Couldn't put on an ounce even eating 6x Mars bars a day.Morris_Dancer said:
Miss Plato, ah, genetics. I'm not at immediate risk of obesity myself [as a teenager I could touch my spine through my stomach, not something I recommend]. Recently my weight declined for no apparent reason [the BBC had a weight thingummyjig which revealed the nation whose average was closest to my own weight was Eritrea, an African dictatorship which I believe has a shortage of food].
0 -
I'm sure there's a See You Next Tuesday joke waiting to be made there.Tissue_Price said:
It's Mr. Price. Except on the first Tuesday of the month.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 67, there were two, one a few days ago and another about two months before that.
Miss Plato, yes, that's the one, thanks
Mr. Price [Miss Price? Sorry for forgetting], that's rather Yes, Minister.0 -
Sturgeon: "When I first met Ed M, at Commonwealth Games, I was more interested in the dancing tea cakes. That's not intended as a slight"
That's superb. The SNP must be getting really concerned at the lack of crossover.0 -
Any news from the "briefing breakfast," Jack?JackW said:
Not so.Pulpstar said:
The Comres SW poll showed Con Gain Bath & Yeovil.DavidL said:
The Tory campaign seems to be very focussed on picking up quite a number of Lib Dems. Whilst this makes perfect electoral sense given their polling there is an element of eating your own lunch.ThomasNashe said:
I think there is a quite considerable segment of the population who'd want the present government returned, but would definitely not want to see a Con majority. Very difficult for them to determine how to vote - as OGH has said LD-Con coalition is not on the ballot paper.DavidL said:
I couldn't agree more. I suspect that an overall majority of, say, 10 would be Cameron's worst nightmare. The presence of a cohort of reliable and sane Lib Dems MPs has been critical to making this Coalition work and has kept these nutters at the far fringes where they belong.MarkSenior said:
The untrustworthy and duplicitous are those Conservative MPs who constantly undermined and voted frequently against their own government or even defected to another party .TCPoliticalBetting said:
I disagree but hope that the LDs take your advice. The LDs have an image with the voters as being untrustworthy and duplicituous. By attacking their partner right from the first few months of 2010 post GE they kept piling up evidence of how they are untrustworthy and duplicituous. Long may they continue doing it.PClipp said:I have the impression (but no more than that) that every time every time the Lib Dems attack the Conservatives, their polling rating goes up. And each time Clegg and his circle talk about entering another coalition, the rating goes down.
Just an impression that I have.
I suspect that your sympathies are more with the Bones and Hollobones and their ilk than the Conservatives and Lib Dems who backed the Coalition Government
As I said yesterday the key equation for the next government, using the SPIN figures, is does Lib Dem + 19 > the SNP?
If not a continuation of a Conservative government in almost any form seems very unlikely to me. The only way forward for the Tories is to increase that 19 to the high 20s by holding onto more of Labour's Con targets. All their energy should really be focussed on that.
The ComRes polling was LibDem regional and not individual seat specific and accordingly did not have named candidates.
PBers need to be more astute when assessing these polls.
0 -
So even after a heavily loaded poll the swing is only a little more than that found nationally by YG in a Public Sector dominated profession. Not YG's finest hour.TheScreamingEagles said:
IIRC that NUT poll asked VI question last, after about 40 other questions.Tissue_Price said:
That was commissioned by the NUT, this one is the TES. Might explain some of it.antifrank said:
In between, we had this poll:TheScreamingEagles said:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/02/teachers-vote-labour-lead-41/
Which isn't best methodology.0 -
Nothing like Twitter for a place for people to go OTT.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Looks to me as if @MikeSmithson was right all along about 2010 Lib Dems holding the key... A lot of them 'don't know'Pong said:
Damn, that's useful!TheScreamingEagles said:
39% of the 2015 ukip vote is from 2010 tories, with the rest split roughly evenly between UKIP/LAB/LD/BNP&Other
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2015-04-20/StratLabApr19Table-01.png0 -
How does he explain that leap in logic?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mr. Eagles, that's a rather crackpot comparison.
Miss Plato, indeed, although as I don't want to be a body-builder it's quite nice. I'm a little over a stone heavier, and four inches shorter. When I was about 13/14 I was almost the same height, but 6.5st.
It's probably handy, given I spend so much time sat down, typing.0 -
That YouGov teachers poll is amazingly good for the Tories considering how much Gove upset them, LOL!0
-
Seriously that is offensive. Scotland needs to remember how big it is as part of the UK. There could be a Yorkshire independence party that got all the seats in greater Yorkshire. It would not be racist to tell them no.TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
I think the Labour score is quite poor off the back of such questions - Conservative teachers will be voting Conservative, possibly with a few extra is my reading (See WAK, Hornsey, East Dunbartonshire polls for methodology contrast)Tissue_Price said:
NB that was after Q24:Tissue_Price said:
That was commissioned by the NUT, this one is the TES.antifrank said:
In between, we had this poll:TheScreamingEagles said:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/02/teachers-vote-labour-lead-41/
The NUT poll asked Voting Intention as Question 26!
What impact are public sector cuts and austerity measures having on the children you teach and their families?
Laughable, and YouGov should be ashamed of themselves.0 -
To be fair, Ms Sturgeon doesn't look like too much of a stranger to Tea cakes...Tissue_Price said:Sturgeon: "When I first met Ed M, at Commonwealth Games, I was more interested in the dancing tea cakes. That's not intended as a slight"
That's superb. The SNP must be getting really concerned at the lack of crossover.0 -
Jeremy Browne speaking utter sense on Daily Politics0
-
Most of the teachers at my grammar school would write off Cameron as some grubby little man out for his own advantage and the present day Labour Party as betrayers of the ideals the Party was set up to promote. I suspect that if presented with today's parties most of them would opt for UKIP as being the nearest to the Labour Party that they, almost to a man, voted for in 1945.antifrank said:
My woodwork teacher at school would definitely now be a kipper. He banged on endlessly about "British standards".ThomasNashe said:
They'll be the PE teachers.Pong said:
WTF? 7% of our teachers are kippers? Did they poll the cleaning staff too?Tissue_Price said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPBSean_F said:
IIRC, that's a big improvement for the Conservatives on the last poll of teachers.Tissue_Price said:Sam Freedman @Samfr
TES/YouGov poll of teachers finds:
44% Labour
29% Tory
10% LD
7% UKIP
6% Greens
No link yet.
29% Tory is encouraging; you'd think it was 2.9% listening to Christine Blower.
YouGov poll of teachers with comparisons on 2010
LAB 44 +11
CON 29-2
LD 10 -17
UKIP 7 +4
GN 4+2
Down 2% [and NB UKIP +4] after introducing free schools? Just maybe the NUT have been spouting bollocks all this time?
Mind you, moving Gove was still smart politics.0 -
-
Now we know she was really really good, when Fitalaff gets wheeled out in daylight hours.fitalass said:I was just going to post the exact same comment there, but you beat me to it. Nicola Sturgeon acted as if she was Neil Kinnock at that Sheffield rally all over again, only delivering the SNP manifesto. Its left me feeling like I did about two weeks before the Indy Referendum...
TGOHF said:
Sounded like a Sheffield rally to me.Dair said:Was very interesting how much Nicola's speech sounded like a Queens Speech.
I doubt that was co-incidental.0 -
Mr. Nemtynakht, Yorkshire First [after a shitty regional assembly rather than independence, at this stage] are standing in around half a dozen seats, maybe more. I think we have a local candidate.0
-
Makes you wonder how much of that 'upset' was ever real. I know it was heavily pushed on here but it shows how unreliable anecdotal evidence is. I would expect the tory vote among teachers next May to be even higher.GIN1138 said:That YouGov teachers poll is amazingly good for the Tories considering how much Gove upset them, LOL!
0 -
My brother's wife used to buy her clothes in the children's dept of the main dept store here in the 80s - she was pretty petite.Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Eagles, that's a rather crackpot comparison.
Miss Plato, indeed, although as I don't want to be a body-builder it's quite nice. I'm a little over a stone heavier, and four inches shorter. When I was about 13/14 I was almost the same height, but 6.5st.
It's probably handy, given I spend so much time sat down, typing.0 -
Watcher, you just watch while the SNP/Labour give all the uk spongers freebies, and suck it up.TheWatcher said:
I'd vote SNP if it meant Scotland gaining independence, and we could finally wave Bye Bye to the McSpongers, Malcolmg and the other cult followers.Dair said://twitter.com/Peston/status/590105106005303296
0 -
I am very surprised that almost a third of teachers are considering Tory. I can count the number of Conservative leaning teachers I've met on the fingers of one hand.Sean_F said:
IIRC, that's a big improvement for the Conservatives on the last poll of teachers.Tissue_Price said:Sam Freedman @Samfr
TES/YouGov poll of teachers finds:
44% Labour
29% Tory
10% LD
7% UKIP
6% Greens
No link yet.
29% Tory is encouraging; you'd think it was 2.9% listening to Christine Blower.0 -
what else would you expect from the Telegraph, toilet humour matches their substandard toilet paper.TheScreamingEagles said:This will cheer up the Yestapo and Waffen Yes Yes
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/5901027660030853120 -
No.Pulpstar said:
No incumbency in Bath.JackW said:
Not so.Pulpstar said:
The Comres SW poll showed Con Gain Bath & Yeovil.DavidL said:
The Tory campaign seems to be very focussed on picking up quite a number of Lib Dems. Whilst this makes perfect electoral sense given their polling there is an element of eating your own lunch.ThomasNashe said:
I think there is a quite considerable segment of the population who'd want the present government returned, but would definitely not want to see a Con majority. Very difficult for them to determine how to vote - as OGH has said LD-Con coalition is not on the ballot paper.DavidL said:
I couldn't agree more. I suspect that an overall majority of, say, 10 would be Cameron's worst nightmare. The presence of a cohort of reliable and sane Lib Dems MPs has been critical to making this Coalition work and has kept these nutters at the far fringes where they belong.MarkSenior said:
The untrustworthy and duplicitous are those Conservative MPs who constantly undermined and voted frequently against their own government or even defected to another party .TCPoliticalBetting said:
I disagree but hope that the LDs take your advice. The LDs have an image with the voters as being untrustworthy and duplicituous. By attacking their partner right from the first few months of 2010 post GE they kept piling up evidence of how they are untrustworthy and duplicituous. Long may they continue doing it.PClipp said:I have the impression (but no more than that) that every time every time the Lib Dems attack the Conservatives, their polling rating goes up. And each time Clegg and his circle talk about entering another coalition, the rating goes down.
Just an impression that I have.
I suspect that your sympathies are more with the Bones and Hollobones and their ilk than the Conservatives and Lib Dems who backed the Coalition Government
As I said yesterday the key equation for the next government, using the SPIN figures, is does Lib Dem + 19 > the SNP?
If not a continuation of a Conservative government in almost any form seems very unlikely to me. The only way forward for the Tories is to increase that 19 to the high 20s by holding onto more of Labour's Con targets. All their energy should really be focussed on that.
The ComRes polling was LibDem regional and not individual seat specific and accordingly did not have named candidates.
PBers need to be more astute when assessing these polls.
I could cash out my fiver for a guaranteed profit on the Lib Dems there now, but is it worth it ?0 -
@paulwaugh: Nicola Sturgeon offers 'the hand of friendship'. Labour MPs see that hand wrapping round them in a death embrace0
-
Unionism is like apartheid, and oppresses the majority*Sean_F said:
How does he explain that leap in logic?TheScreamingEagles said:
*If you agree that 45% represents a majority.0 -
Here are the Yorkshire First candidates.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Nemtynakht, Yorkshire First [after a shitty regional assembly rather than independence, at this stage] are standing in around half a dozen seats, maybe more. I think we have a local candidate.
0 -
Mr. G, not sure it's legitimate to attack a poster just for being on the site.0
-
Very good.antifrank said:
My woodwork teacher at school would definitely now be a kipper. He banged on endlessly about "British standards".ThomasNashe said:
They'll be the PE teachers.Pong said:
WTF? 7% of our teachers are kippers? Did they poll the cleaning staff too?Tissue_Price said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPBSean_F said:
IIRC, that's a big improvement for the Conservatives on the last poll of teachers.Tissue_Price said:Sam Freedman @Samfr
TES/YouGov poll of teachers finds:
44% Labour
29% Tory
10% LD
7% UKIP
6% Greens
No link yet.
29% Tory is encouraging; you'd think it was 2.9% listening to Christine Blower.
YouGov poll of teachers with comparisons on 2010
LAB 44 +11
CON 29-2
LD 10 -17
UKIP 7 +4
GN 4+2
Down 2% [and NB UKIP +4] after introducing free schools? Just maybe the NUT have been spouting bollocks all this time?
Mind you, moving Gove was still smart politics.0 -
0
-
Some polling yesterday will come as a bit of a shock to you then I would imagine.PClipp said:I have the impression (but no more than that) that every time every time the Lib Dems attack the Conservatives, their polling rating goes up. And each time Clegg and his circle talk about entering another coalition, the rating goes down.
Just an impression that I have.0 -
Ah, that seems quite clear, then.TheScreamingEagles said:
Unionism is like apartheid, and oppresses the majority*Sean_F said:
How does he explain that leap in logic?TheScreamingEagles said:
*If you agree that 45% represents a majority.0 -
On topic, not that manifestos are in any way decisive, but it is interesting to re-read the Conservative manifesto of 1992. John Major's intro is full of restatements of Conservative values, inviting the electorate to asks themselves if they share them. Also, I was surprised at how much Defence was front and centre:
http://politicsresources.net/area/uk/man/con92.htm
The section on immigration is interesting. It basically just says we think the existing controls are the right ones and working well, but will look at the increase in asylum seekers from 5k to c.45k over the previous few years.
Net Immigration last year was over six times that amount.0 -
David Cameron = Hendrik VerwoerdSean_F said:
Ah, that seems quite clear, then.TheScreamingEagles said:
Unionism is like apartheid, and oppresses the majority*Sean_F said:
How does he explain that leap in logic?TheScreamingEagles said:
*If you agree that 45% represents a majority.
Alex Salmond = Nelson Mandela
Nicola Sturgeon = Walter Sisulu0 -
I'm sure that as a higher earning wage slave you're looking forward to the nationwide tax rises to pay for it all. Lovely jubbly.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
Watcher, you just watch while the SNP/Labour give all the uk spongers freebies, and suck it up.TheWatcher said:
I'd vote SNP if it meant Scotland gaining independence, and we could finally wave Bye Bye to the McSpongers, Malcolmg and the other cult followers.Dair said://twitter.com/Peston/status/590105106005303296
0 -
No, those questions were in the NUT poll that showed Lab leading by 41 (forty-one).Pulpstar said:
I think the Labour score is quite poor off the back of such questions - Conservative teachers will be voting Conservative, possibly with a few extra is my reading (See WAK, Hornsey, East Dunbartonshire polls for methodology contrast)Tissue_Price said:
NB that was after Q24:Tissue_Price said:
That was commissioned by the NUT, this one is the TES.antifrank said:
In between, we had this poll:TheScreamingEagles said:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/02/teachers-vote-labour-lead-41/
The NUT poll asked Voting Intention as Question 26!
What impact are public sector cuts and austerity measures having on the children you teach and their families?
Laughable, and YouGov should be ashamed of themselves.
I'm guessing the TES poll was more, well, rigorous.
Also of note - the 7.5% Con-Lab swing that Mike notes is from March 2010, not from the election. So it's not comparable to the overall 3-4% swing we are seeing in national polls.0 -
Not only do I want to vote SNP, I actually want to serve Nicola.Dair said:
Is there anything I can do? Maybe I could clean her shoes or wax her car.0 -
Casino Royale: 'Defence was front and centre': he had just been prominently involved in the victorious first Gulf War, of course. How long ago that seems ...
0 -
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
http://bit.ly/1D5Ycqi0 -
New Thread0
-
He was also in the process of implementing massive defence cuts. Conservatives always cut defence and talk about the subject as little as possible.ThomasNashe said:Casino Royal: 'Defence was front and centre': he had just been prominently involved in the victorious first Gulf War, of course. How long ago that seems ...
0 -
Don't worry it's only Popularse - the only pollster even more boring and predictable than You Gov.Pulpstar said:0 -
It was the mugs wot swung it!TheScreamingEagles said:Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
http://bit.ly/1D5Ycqi0 -
Interesting that there's only movement of 2% or 3% (in both directions!) between Lab and Con, showing that most of the changes since 2010 have been with regard to the smaller parties.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mr Dancer. Am I Mr Man?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Speaking, I agree Balls is likely to win and probably increase his majority.
But it's undeniable UKIP are (nationwide) on the rise. I think the Lib Dem vote will collapse and help Balls.0 -
What Mr Man are you?! Is this what happens to the LibDems in Coalition?
I love these Amazon reviews >We meet Mr Messy - a man whose entire day-to-day existence is the undiluted expression of his individuality. His very untidiness is a metaphor for his blissful and unselfconscious disregard for the Social Order. Yes, there are times when he himself is a victim of this individuality - as when he trips over a brush he has left on his garden path - but he goes through life with a smile on his face.
amazon.co.uk/review/R24HIHKBR9DYCU
That is, until a chance meeting with Mr Neat and Mr Tidy - the archetypal men in suits. They set about a merciless programme of social engineering and indoctrination that we are left in no doubt is in flagrant violation of his free will. 'But I like being messy' he protests as they anonymize both his home and his person with their relentless cleaning activity, a symbolism thinly veiled.
This process is so thorough that by the end of it he is unrecognizable - a homogenized pink blob, no longer truly himself (that vibrant Pollock-like scribble of before). He smiles the smile of a brainwashed automaton, blandly accepting what he has been given no agency to question or refuse. It is in this very smile that the sheer horror of what we have seen to occur is at its most acute.Tabman said:
Mr Dancer. Am I Mr Man?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Speaking, I agree Balls is likely to win and probably increase his majority.
But it's undeniable UKIP are (nationwide) on the rise. I think the Lib Dem vote will collapse and help Balls.0 -
Excellent article. Thanks very much Keiran.0
-
Must be raining down south or watcher could not have crawled out from under his rock and risked the sunshine. What you splashing your JSA on this week.TheWatcher said:
I'd vote SNP if it meant Scotland gaining independence, and we could finally wave Bye Bye to the McSpongers, Malcolmg and the other cult followers.Dair said://twitter.com/Peston/status/590105106005303296
0 -
Palmer - Loses0
This discussion has been closed.