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Smells like a 4-5% Con lead to me. If it's a substantial Labour lead that would really change the dynamic. Either way, laying NOM at 1.14 might be worth a trade.TheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
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And if that type of voter votes Tory then they are bonkers.Casino_Royale said:
Should be the type of voter the Tories naturally go for IMHO.Pulpstar said:
Let's work out the most resentful voter type possible.Casino_Royale said:
I'm surprised free schools are so unpopular. Right to buy for housing association tenants doesn't look like it's gone down initially as well as expected, possible resentment from those who won't or didn't benefit.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA
Someone on £25k (Doesn't benefit from minimum wage or higher rate tax raises) who is single, rents privately, isn't set to inherit anything and doesn't get any benefit at all.0 -
Mr. Royale, Calvert cut a theoretical 10,000 majority for Balls down to 1,000 (a smaller number than votes cast for UKIP and, I think, the BNP). Slightly surprised he's not standing here again, but there we are.
What time is the Mori poll expected?0 -
rcs1000, how often have you been to B & R?
The Tory vote in B & R has under performed the national swing in both 2005 & 2010.
The Lib Dem is now well dug in. These rural Welsh seats are best taken when the incumbent retires (and the Tories did nearly take it in 2001).
The Tory candidate is the same as in the Welsh Assembly elections of 2011 when he did not perform well. There was a small wing against hie, although the Tories as a whole did too well and took similar seats, such as neighbouring Montgomeryshire and Aberconwy, where there were swings in their favour.
If the Tories get 310 or 320 seats then B & R will be one of them. But, it is a very, very long shot given the polls.0 -
I had his BBC tweet removed .... Being quoted in the Beeb is so last election.Smarmeron said:@JackW
On the other hand, TSE now has his tweet posted on the Beeb live blog.
If you haven't been quoted in the Auchentennach Turkey Breeders Gazette & Farmers Wives Weekly then frankly my dear I don't give a damn.
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I've been on those for yonks !Casino_Royale said:
I said so on here a week or so ago. UKIP could take Dudley North and Great Grimsby, possibly even Rother Valley, whilst only retaining Clacton.TheScreamingEagles said:The Sun are reporting a study by The University of Sheffield,
NIGEL Farage may end up costing Labour more seats than the Tories, top academics claimed last night.
A bombshell report said that even a two per cent swing from Labour voters to Ukip could cost Ed Miliband a precious 14 constituencies on May 7.
Hedged out for a lovely green book in Rother Valley (Well I'm in trouble if the Tories are heading for 500 seats or so
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Wonder how many people in Wales and the South West don't have broadband internet access due to distance from telephone exchanges.chestnut said:Online polling
Wales and the SW - Labour share (last three samples of each)
Populus 34%
Comres 34%
4.3m voters last time = 1.46m Labour.
Wales - online and phone polls tell us that Lab are on 40% of 1.5m voters = 600,000 voters.
Therefore, Labour must have 860,000 voters in the SW out of 2.8m voters = 30.7% regional vote share based on online panels. In 2010, they got 15.4%. At the Euros they got 13.8%.
(Something to think of - online polling is going to slightly favour urban and discriminate against rural voters.)0 -
Jack, the least you can do is post excerpts from the lonely-hearts column of the ATBG&FWW...JackW said:
I had his BBC tweet removed .... Being quoted in the Beeb is so last election.Smarmeron said:@JackW
On the other hand, TSE now has his tweet posted on the Beeb live blog.
If you haven't been quoted in the Auchentennach Turkey Breeders Gazette & Farmers Wives Weekly then frankly my dear I don't give a damn.
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Oh the shame .... is there no limit to your degradation ?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's ok, I've made it onto the Guardian.Smarmeron said:Hang fire on TSE's tweet, it has been removed for some reason
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Yes, in theory the internet polls should be able to pick up the nuances that will be important in this election - ie how do you work out what proportion of the 2010 LibDems in a particular seat are Red Liberals, Liberal Conservatives, anti-establishment protest voters, eco-warriors or Gladstonian die-hards, because they will be able to more accurately match up the members of their panels to the detailed socioeconomic classifications (such as MOSAIC, etc), that will probably allow you to distinguish between the different motivations.Pong said:I'm no psephologist - obviously - but it does strike me that dismissing internet polls is a bit silly. With all the extra data that can be captured with technology, surely it's only a matter of time before the methodology of internet polls becomes more accurate in achieving the ultimate objective (the constituency tallies) than the old tried & trusted methods. We might not be there yet, I'll grant you
You probably want to have a large sample for each sub-category of voter for that sort of analysis. Wiki says there are 61 MOSAIC types, for example, so you'd be looking at an overall sample size of at least 61,000.
Pissing about with national samples of one or two thousand is just a waste of their time (except that it is cheap, and papers will pay for it), and the particular problems they have in getting hold of a random sample mean that is best left to phone polling.0 -
I do.Pong said:
@TSE - Do you think Clegg is value in Hallam?TheScreamingEagles said:
They've stopped issuing bar charts in Sheffield Hallam.JackW said:
Pollster in we've got a poll "definitely worth watching" shocker.TheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
In other news LibDems issue bar charts.
Just send endorsements from past Tory candidates telling us to vote for Nick Clegg.
Shadsy's 1.57 looks very generous to me.
But the Labour activists are very confident, they keep on sending their big guns down, the Lib Dems are nervous.
I think my opinion is, Clegg just wins if there is no tactical voting from the Tories and wins very comfortably if a significant chunk of Tories vote tactically for him.
Most of the Lib Dem literature is designed for us Tory voters.
See here
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8DpNyMIIAAqIPN.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9-Eo4dIEAAE5fa.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9-EKw-IQAA176T.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8DpYMuIEAE746i.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_wSHP1WcAAmEaF.jpg:large0 -
There's no evidence from the polling that any of those seats are in danger.Casino_Royale said:
Cheadle, Cheltenham, Bath and Kingston and Surbiton are all possible IMHO.JackW said:
You really are down on the LibDems.rcs1000 said:
Bath (p)JackW said:
Ok ... your cobblers may remain intact.rcs1000 said:
Sorry, I meant SNP!JackW said:
Robert.rcs1000 said:
I'd put the LibDems on about 18 to 20 seats post the election, losing 6 or 7 to Labour, 6 or 7 to UKIP, and 20 to 25 to the Conservatives.antifrank said:Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.
LibDem lose 6-7 to UKIP - Utter cobblers.
Losses aren't in the abstract. Put some faces to those UKIP gains.
However 20-25 losses to Con is also very high. Which seats are you predicting the yellows to lose to the blues.
Brecon & Radnorshire
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset Mid & Poole North
Eastbourne (p)
Eastleigh (p)
Edinburgh West (p)
Hazel Grove
Kingston & Surbiton
Lewes (p)
Portsmouth South
Somerset & Frome
St Austell & Nequay
St Ives
Sutton & Cheam
Taunton Deane
Torbay
Twickenham (p)
Wells
Yeovil (p)
Here you go. I'd expect the Libs to lose between two-thirds and three-quarters of this list, and I don't think any of them are safe. (The p's are the ones I suspect are most likely to be held.)
Did OGH make you recite "Winning Here" songs as a child and wear sandals until you went to University ??
Of the seats you quoted some are so implausable that I'm minded to think you are related to "Stuart Truth" :
Yeovil .. Twickenham .. Sutton & Cheam .. Lewes .. Kingston & Surbiton .. Hazel Grove .. Eastleigh .. Eastbourne .. Cheltenham .. Cheadle .. Bath
One other factor is whether the Cons are expending top end resources in the seats. The answer is no.
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Well I'm voting Lib Dem at the election.JackW said:
Oh the shame .... is there no limit to your degradation ?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's ok, I've made it onto the Guardian.Smarmeron said:Hang fire on TSE's tweet, it has been removed for some reason
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I take your point, but lots of young people in that situation are aspirational. To marriage, £50k management jobs and owning their own house.Pulpstar said:
Let's work out the most resentful voter type possible.Casino_Royale said:
I'm surprised free schools are so unpopular. Right to buy for housing association tenants doesn't look like it's gone down initially as well as expected, possible resentment from those who won't or didn't benefit.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA
Someone on £25k (Doesn't benefit from minimum wage or higher rate tax raises) who is single, rents privately, isn't set to inherit anything and doesn't get any benefit at all.0 -
I'm surprised the inheritance tax threshold raise isn't more popular too. I had that one down as a battle that had already very much been won in the court of public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I'm surprised free schools are so unpopular. Right to buy for housing association tenants doesn't look like it's gone down initially as well as expected, possible resentment from those who won't or didn't benefit.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA
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We should be getting three polls today.
YouGov, Ipsos Mori and Panelbase.0 -
A suggestion on twitter that could work wrt tactical voting to stop Ukip is the Tories standing aside in Thurrock and labour reciprocating in South Thanet0
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They do suspect a capacity problem for air traffic, but want to wait for more data before finalising policy.anotherDave said:
UKIP point out that this 'capacity' argument has not been proven:JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
I went through the main UK party manifestos last night to see what they said about rail in general, and HS2 in particular. This seems to be a reasonable summation:
UKIP:
Not in favour. Although does not have other solutions to the capacity problems."The argument that HS2 is needed to provide extra capacity has just weeks ago been questioned by the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, which concluded that: ‘the Government has not made a convincing case for why this particular project should go ahead.’"
"The final report of the Davies Commission into airport capacity and connectivity in the UK will be published later this year. UKIP will consider its recommendations and then take a position on the basis of what we genuinely believe to be in the long-term best interests of the country.
p.37
However, we firmly believe that part of the solution to address the lack of airport capacity in the South East is to re-open Manston Airport. Manston is ideally placed to take low-cost airlines and freight-only aircraft; it is close to the railway network; enjoys good connections to Ashford International; will release additional capacity in the region; and take pressure off other airports."
http://www.ukip.org/manifesto2015
I disagree, and so does the data, at least as far as I can see. I have only skim-read the recent HoL report, but at first sight some of its conclusions seem somewhat odd. In particular, they seem to want more certainty than any speculative project could be expected to deliver.
Manston airport is interesting: I haven't looked into it too much, but didn't it close recently as it was economically unviable?
It is slightly odd that UKIP say one reason for it to be reopened is that it has good connections to Ashford International station. Which is on a high-speed rail line. ;-)0 -
The Ipsos phone polls are the one thing that are really planting doubt in my mind about what's happening.Tissue_Price said:
Smells like a 4-5% Con lead to me. If it's a substantial Labour lead that would really change the dynamic. Either way, laying NOM at 1.14 might be worth a trade.TheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
I have little faith in internet polling.0 -
Well the Tories are well placed to improve on PanelbaseTheScreamingEagles said:We should be getting three polls today.
YouGov, Ipsos Mori and Panelbase.
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The funniest pool game I ever saw was in a pub with a 'winner stays on' tradition.isam said:youtu.be/GvqBRIlwNAE
A woman challenger destroyed the previous winner, pulling off some astonishing shots, then magically lost the ability to pot when playing her crap-at-pool boyfriend. :-)
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"Hunky Veteran Aristocrat Seeks Nubile Young Female With Bare Foot Fetish"Innocent_Abroad said:
Jack, the least you can do is post excerpts from the lonely-hearts column of the ATBG&FWW...JackW said:
I had his BBC tweet removed .... Being quoted in the Beeb is so last election.Smarmeron said:@JackW
On the other hand, TSE now has his tweet posted on the Beeb live blog.
If you haven't been quoted in the Auchentennach Turkey Breeders Gazette & Farmers Wives Weekly then frankly my dear I don't give a damn.
(Edit .... That'll cost me)
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Farage gunpowder for tonight
'A whistleblower who repeatedly tried to expose the full extent of child sex abuse in Rotherham has told Sky News that a manager actively encouraged her to release underage girls into the hands of abusers.
"It was like letting them out to be raped ... When I rang up a senior officer who was on call, when I needed advice about these Asian men coming to the units taking the children, she just said: 'Open the door and let them go.'
http://news.sky.com/story/1465825/rotherham-worker-told-to-give-girls-to-abusers0 -
Ignoring my p's for a second, your list hasJackW said:You really are down on the LibDems.
Did OGH make you recite "Winning Here" songs as a child and wear sandals until you went to University ??
Of the seats you quoted some are so implausable that I'm minded to think you are related to "Stuart Truth" :
Yeovil .. Twickenham .. Sutton & Cheam .. Lewes .. Kingston & Surbiton .. Hazel Grove .. Eastleigh .. Eastbourne .. Cheltenham .. Cheadle .. Bath
Cheltenham
Cheadle
Kingston & Surbiton
Sutton & Cheam
Take the first of those: the LibDems have squeezed and squeezed the Labour vote. I could see a fifth of the LD vote going to Labour, and a small amount going to Con/UKIP/Green. That sees the LibDems losing 44 to 39. The LDs have to hold on to 83% of their vote, assuming all goes to Lab/UKIP/Green if they wish to keep the seat. That will be hard to do.
Cheadle is similar. It 1997 it had a 16% Labour share; I expect them to get similar in 2015. The LibDems are only 6% ahead of the Tories. The return of the Red Liberals hands the seat to the Conservatives.
The London seats: I'm basing it on a combination of local election results and Ashcroft.0 -
Wonder which seat will have highest turnout ?
East Dunbartonshire could be over 80%0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Well I'm voting Lib Dem at the election.JackW said:
Oh the shame .... is there no limit to your degradation ?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's ok, I've made it onto the Guardian.Smarmeron said:Hang fire on TSE's tweet, it has been removed for some reason
I'm voting Green- and hopefully I'm getting a Greenie on faith to vote for Labour in a key marginal.
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You'd hope so.Tissue_Price said:
Well the Tories are well placed to improve on PanelbaseTheScreamingEagles said:We should be getting three polls today.
YouGov, Ipsos Mori and Panelbase.0 -
Cheadle is close, Cheltenham has a whopping Tory lead prior to the seat specific question, there has been no Ashcroft in Bath but the incumbent is standing down, and the LDs are nervous and the Tories confident in K&S. The local election results were very encouraging for them there.JackW said:
There's no evidence from the polling that any of those seats are in danger.Casino_Royale said:
Cheadle, Cheltenham, Bath and Kingston and Surbiton are all possible IMHO.JackW said:
You really are down on the LibDems.rcs1000 said:
Kingston & SurbitonJackW said:
Ok ... your cobblers may remain intact.rcs1000 said:
Sorry, I meant SNP!JackW said:
Robert.rcs1000 said:
I'd put the LibDems on about 18 to 20 seats post the election, losing 6 or 7 to Labour, 6 or 7 to UKIP, and 20 to 25 to the Conservatives.antifrank said:Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.
LibDem lose 6-7 to UKIP - Utter cobblers.
Losses aren't in the abstract. Put some faces to those UKIP gains.
However 20-25 losses to Con is also very high. Which seats are you predicting the yellows to lose to the blues.
Lewes (p)
Portsmouth South
Somerset & Frome
St Austell & Nequay
St Ives
Sutton & Cheam
Taunton Deane
Torbay
Twickenham (p)
Wells
Yeovil (p)
Here you go. I'd expect the Libs to lose between two-thirds and three-quarters of this list, and I don't think any of them are safe. (The p's are the ones I suspect are most likely to be held.)
Did OGH make you recite "Winning Here" songs as a child and wear sandals until you went to University ??
Of the seats you quoted some are so implausable that I'm minded to think you are related to "Stuart Truth" :
Yeovil .. Twickenham .. Sutton & Cheam .. Lewes .. Kingston & Surbiton .. Hazel Grove .. Eastleigh .. Eastbourne .. Cheltenham .. Cheadle .. Bath
One other factor is whether the Cons are expending top end resources in the seats. The answer is no.
Plus, we now have ComRes from last night showing that it ain't all that rosy for the LDs in the SW.
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The key word is 'international'. Ashford is a Eurostar station.JosiasJessop said:
It is slightly odd that UKIP say one reason for it to be reopened is that it has good connections to Ashford International station. Which is on a high-speed rail line. ;-)
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In Scotland turnout is key to the SNPs fortunes and will be a re-run if Indy ref.Pulpstar said:Wonder which seat will have highest turnout ?
East Dunbartonshire could be over 80%
If turnout is high then that favours the SNP, if turnout is Really High then that gives unionists edge in tight seats.0 -
Renfrewshire East must be favourite, Murphy being such a polarising figure, hopeful Tories staying blue, motivated SNP and tactical voters, close race, Indyref....
And top last time.0 -
I'm voting for the best way to ensure David Cameron remains First Lord of t'Treasury, I hope.tyson said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Well I'm voting Lib Dem at the election.JackW said:
Oh the shame .... is there no limit to your degradation ?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's ok, I've made it onto the Guardian.Smarmeron said:Hang fire on TSE's tweet, it has been removed for some reason
I'm voting Green- and hopefully I'm getting a Greenie on faith to vote for Labour in a key marginal.
(I'm going to feel sicker than a cyclist with piles, if Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems go into coalition with Labour)0 -
I don't think so, I used to be in that position and did so. They are highly vulnerable to Labour governments but usually aspirational and want to get on.SandyRentool said:
And if that type of voter votes Tory then they are bonkers.Casino_Royale said:
Should be the type of voter the Tories naturally go for IMHO.Pulpstar said:
Let's work out the most resentful voter type possible.Casino_Royale said:
I'm surprised free schools are so unpopular. Right to buy for housing association tenants doesn't look like it's gone down initially as well as expected, possible resentment from those who won't or didn't benefit.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA
Someone on £25k (Doesn't benefit from minimum wage or higher rate tax raises) who is single, rents privately, isn't set to inherit anything and doesn't get any benefit at all.0 -
For what it's worth someone gave me a tip that Chorley in Lancashire was a possible Tory gain. Seems most unlikely but he wasn't someone without knowledge.0
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Although it may be that your vote makes it a Lab-Lib coalition, rather than a Lab majority government.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm voting for the best way to ensure David Cameron remains First Lord of t'Treasury, I hope.tyson said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Well I'm voting Lib Dem at the election.JackW said:
Oh the shame .... is there no limit to your degradation ?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's ok, I've made it onto the Guardian.Smarmeron said:Hang fire on TSE's tweet, it has been removed for some reason
I'm voting Green- and hopefully I'm getting a Greenie on faith to vote for Labour in a key marginal.
(I'm going to feel sicker than a cyclist with piles, if Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems go into coalition with Labour)
How would that make you feel?0 -
You'll feel like a 2010 Lab - LibDem tactical switcher!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm voting for the best way to ensure David Cameron remains First Lord of t'Treasury, I hope.tyson said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Well I'm voting Lib Dem at the election.JackW said:
Oh the shame .... is there no limit to your degradation ?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's ok, I've made it onto the Guardian.Smarmeron said:Hang fire on TSE's tweet, it has been removed for some reason
I'm voting Green- and hopefully I'm getting a Greenie on faith to vote for Labour in a key marginal.
(I'm going to feel sicker than a cyclist with piles, if Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems go into coalition with Labour)0 -
I'd be astonished if Lindsay Hoyle lostRoger said:For what it's worth someone gave me a tip that Chorley in Lancashire was a possible Tory gain. Seems most unlikely but he wasn't someone without knowledge.
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PBCOM Broxtowe MEETUP: PBCOM Broxtowe MEETUP on Tuesday 5th May. Victoria Pub. Saloon bar, 8.30 pm.
I've tried to pin down our erstwhile Labour candidate to a pre election date. He can be at the Victoria Pub 85 Dovecote Lane, Beeston, Nottingham NG9 1JG at 8.30. He will be in the Saloon bar- unless some unforeseen campaign issues pop up....perhaps Anna Soubry attacking him with a wet mackerel.0 -
As I said, it will make me feel sicker than a cyclist with piles.rcs1000 said:
Although it may be that your vote makes it a Lab-Lib coalition, rather than a Lab majority government.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm voting for the best way to ensure David Cameron remains First Lord of t'Treasury, I hope.tyson said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Well I'm voting Lib Dem at the election.JackW said:
Oh the shame .... is there no limit to your degradation ?!?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's ok, I've made it onto the Guardian.Smarmeron said:Hang fire on TSE's tweet, it has been removed for some reason
I'm voting Green- and hopefully I'm getting a Greenie on faith to vote for Labour in a key marginal.
(I'm going to feel sicker than a cyclist with piles, if Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems go into coalition with Labour)
How would that make you feel?0 -
So how did a Tory government benefit you?Casino_Royale said:
I don't think so, I used to be in that position and did so. They are highly vulnerable to Labour governments but usually aspirational and want to get on.SandyRentool said:
And if that type of voter votes Tory then they are bonkers.Casino_Royale said:
Should be the type of voter the Tories naturally go for IMHO.Pulpstar said:
Let's work out the most resentful voter type possible.Casino_Royale said:
I'm surprised free schools are so unpopular. Right to buy for housing association tenants doesn't look like it's gone down initially as well as expected, possible resentment from those who won't or didn't benefit.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA
Someone on £25k (Doesn't benefit from minimum wage or higher rate tax raises) who is single, rents privately, isn't set to inherit anything and doesn't get any benefit at all.0 -
What turnout would be optimal for SNP: 70 - 73% indicates the YEssers have come out, anything over 77% and the sleeping "Nos" have come out too ?Alistair said:
In Scotland turnout is key to the SNPs fortunes and will be a re-run if Indy ref.Pulpstar said:Wonder which seat will have highest turnout ?
East Dunbartonshire could be over 80%
If turnout is high then that favours the SNP, if turnout is Really High then that gives unionists edge in tight seats.0 -
Mr. Isam, I'd say that's shocking, but the appalling thing is that it isn't really surprising after all we've heard.0
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Yes she says its futile as she is ahead in the pollsBrom said:
I saw this mooted. Needless to say it did not go down well with Jackie Doyle-Price!isam said:A suggestion on twitter that could work wrt tactical voting to stop Ukip is the Tories standing aside in Thurrock and labour reciprocating in South Thanet
I've asked which poll... No answer. She often uses election forecast to justify this sort of claim0 -
Sorry- please note I've got the time a bit late. Nick Palmer can be there a little earlier at 8.00.tyson said:PBCOM Broxtowe MEETUP: PBCOM Broxtowe MEETUP on Tuesday 5th May. Victoria Pub. Saloon bar, 7.30-8.00 pm.
I've tried to pin down our erstwhile Labour candidate to a pre election date. He can be at the Victoria Pub 85 Dovecote Lane, Beeston, Nottingham NG9 1JG at 7.30-8.00 8.30. He will be in the Saloon bar- unless some unforeseen campaign issues pop up....perhaps Anna Soubry attacking him with a wet mackerel.
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My salary has more than doubled under this government and my taxes cut substantially. Business is booming.SandyRentool said:
So how did a Tory government benefit you?Casino_Royale said:
I don't think so, I used to be in that position and did so. They are highly vulnerable to Labour governments but usually aspirational and want to get on.SandyRentool said:
And if that type of voter votes Tory then they are bonkers.Casino_Royale said:
Should be the type of voter the Tories naturally go for IMHO.Pulpstar said:
Let's work out the most resentful voter type possible.Casino_Royale said:
I'm surprised free schools are so unpopular. Right to buy for housing association tenants doesn't look like it's gone down initially as well as expected, possible resentment from those who won't or didn't benefit.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA
Someone on £25k (Doesn't benefit from minimum wage or higher rate tax raises) who is single, rents privately, isn't set to inherit anything and doesn't get any benefit at all.0 -
If it is "definitely worth watching" it sounds like a lead of at least 3% for Con or Lab, probably Con because of the lagged response to their manifesto.Tissue_Price said:
Smells like a 4-5% Con lead to me. If it's a substantial Labour lead that would really change the dynamic. Either way, laying NOM at 1.14 might be worth a trade.TheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
I'm guessing Con 37%, Lab 34%.0 -
p.37JosiasJessop said:
They do suspect a capacity problem for air traffic, but want to wait for more data before finalising policy.anotherDave said:
UKIP point out that this 'capacity' argument has not been proven:JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
I went through the main UK party manifestos last night to see what they said about rail in general, and HS2 in particular. This seems to be a reasonable summation:
UKIP:
Not in favour. Although does not have other solutions to the capacity problems."The argument that HS2 is needed to provide extra capacity has just weeks ago been questioned by the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, which concluded that: ‘the Government has not made a convincing case for why this particular project should go ahead.’"
"The final report of the Davies Commission into airport capacity and connectivity in the UK will be published later this year. UKIP will consider its recommendations and then take a position on the basis of what we genuinely believe to be in the long-term best interests of the country.
However, we firmly believe that part of the solution to address the lack of airport capacity in the South East is to re-open Manston Airport. Manston is ideally placed to take low-cost airlines and freight-only aircraft; it is close to the railway network; enjoys good connections to Ashford International; will release additional capacity in the region; and take pressure off other airports."
http://www.ukip.org/manifesto2015
I disagree, and so does the data, at least as far as I can see. I have only skim-read the recent HoL report, but at first sight some of its conclusions seem somewhat odd. In particular, they seem to want more certainty than any speculative project could be expected to deliver.
Manston airport is interesting: I haven't looked into it too much, but didn't it close recently as it was economically unviable?
It is slightly odd that UKIP say one reason for it to be reopened is that it has good connections to Ashford International station. Which is on a high-speed rail line. ;-)
Re Manston. No it did not close because it was economically unviable. We have to be careful discussing this because there are lots of people with trigger lawyers who are rather touchy about it. But the airport was bought in November 2013 for £1 and the new owners gave assurances about its future. Just 5 months later they decided to close the airport and are now seeking planning permission for commercial and housing developments on the site.
Oh and the High Speed Rail line at Ashford is a very different kettle of fish from the HS2 given that it serves the Channel Tunnel. Conflating the two is plain dumb.0 -
Thanks to LibDem policies, no doubt.Casino_Royale said:
My salary has more than doubled under this government and my taxes cut substantially. Business is booming.SandyRentool said:
So how did a Tory government benefit you?Casino_Royale said:
I don't think so, I used to be in that position and did so. They are highly vulnerable to Labour governments but usually aspirational and want to get on.SandyRentool said:
And if that type of voter votes Tory then they are bonkers.Casino_Royale said:
Should be the type of voter the Tories naturally go for IMHO.Pulpstar said:
Let's work out the most resentful voter type possible.Casino_Royale said:
I'm surprised free schools are so unpopular. Right to buy for housing association tenants doesn't look like it's gone down initially as well as expected, possible resentment from those who won't or didn't benefit.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA
Someone on £25k (Doesn't benefit from minimum wage or higher rate tax raises) who is single, rents privately, isn't set to inherit anything and doesn't get any benefit at all.0 -
Superficially that all looks fine except ....rcs1000 said:
Ignoring my p's for a second, your list hasJackW said:You really are down on the LibDems.
Did OGH make you recite "Winning Here" songs as a child and wear sandals until you went to University ??
Of the seats you quoted some are so implausable that I'm minded to think you are related to "Stuart Truth" :
Yeovil .. Twickenham .. Sutton & Cheam .. Lewes .. Kingston & Surbiton .. Hazel Grove .. Eastleigh .. Eastbourne .. Cheltenham .. Cheadle .. Bath
Cheltenham
Cheadle
Kingston & Surbiton
Sutton & Cheam
Take the first of those: the LibDems have squeezed and squeezed the Labour vote. I could see a fifth of the LD vote going to Labour, and a small amount going to Con/UKIP/Green. That sees the LibDems losing 44 to 39. The LDs have to hold on to 83% of their vote, assuming all goes to Lab/UKIP/Green if they wish to keep the seat. That will be hard to do.
Cheadle is similar. It 1997 it had a 16% Labour share; I expect them to get similar in 2015. The LibDems are only 6% ahead of the Tories. The return of the Red Liberals hands the seat to the Conservatives.
The London seats: I'm basing it on a combination of local election results and Ashcroft.
Superficiality is little use in assessing LibDem seats. The seats you note are yellow peril enclaves and have been so for many years. They are used to the type of message that the LibDems peddle and are attracted to it.
The is little evidence from the Ashcroft constituency polling that they are in danger when polled at 7% nationwide let alone as you said the 9% they are polling now. Further a weakness in the Ashcroft polling is the failure to name candidates which IMO is important in LibDem seats and vital as election day looms.
As I also indicated down thread neither are the Tories expending high end resources in these seats whereas all the much improved LibDem financial clout is being directed into 50 or so by-election style campaigns - note what @Easterross is seeing in his seat. This is being repeated in the other 49.
Over the next three weeks the LibDems will be hammering away, bar charts akimbo and much else to secure these hot spot seats. I expect them have a bad night but keep 30-35 seats and certainly not the debacle of sub 20 that you forecast.
0 -
Difficult to judge. I'd have thought. It's not a simple binary this time, and that brings into play an issue which, I suspect, may be important: [edit abstaining] folk who have previously voted SLAB but can't now bring themselves to do it because they are scunnered with Mr Murphy being Mr Cameron's little Indyref helper. And they are hardly likely to vote for anyone else - the Tories or LDs are just as bad on exactly the same basis. So each is as good as another 0.5 votes for the SNP.Pulpstar said:
What turnout would be optimal for SNP: 70 - 73% indicates the YEssers have come out, anything over 77% and the sleeping "Nos" have come out too ?Alistair said:
In Scotland turnout is key to the SNPs fortunes and will be a re-run if Indy ref.Pulpstar said:Wonder which seat will have highest turnout ?
East Dunbartonshire could be over 80%
If turnout is high then that favours the SNP, if turnout is Really High then that gives unionists edge in tight seats.
0 -
luckily for her she's had Grant Shapps down to change the minds of the undecidedisam said:
Yes she says its futile as she is ahead in the pollsBrom said:
I saw this mooted. Needless to say it did not go down well with Jackie Doyle-Price!isam said:A suggestion on twitter that could work wrt tactical voting to stop Ukip is the Tories standing aside in Thurrock and labour reciprocating in South Thanet
I've asked which poll... No answer. She often uses election forecast to justify this sort of claim
0 -
Wow! He really smashes any preconception of what a professor looks likeTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I agree ..... a 2% lead for either Labour or Conservative is hardly in the "definitely worth watching" category, more in the "more of the same" mould I would say. So a 3%+ lead for either of the two main parties at this stage, three weeks out from the GE, would certainly be interesting and likely to have an impact on the betting markets.Tissue_Price said:
Smells like a 4-5% Con lead to me. If it's a substantial Labour lead that would really change the dynamic. Either way, laying NOM at 1.14 might be worth a trade.TheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
With the SNP likely to win approx 45 seasts, it would seem almost impossible for Labour to win an overall majority. For the Tories to do so, they would need a 7% lead in the polls.0 -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professor_Branestawmisam said:
Wow! He really smashes any preconception of what a professor looks likeTheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
Someone gave me a tip that Blackwood would win in Oxford West & Abingdon.Roger said:For what it's worth someone gave me a tip that Chorley in Lancashire was a possible Tory gain. Seems most unlikely but he wasn't someone without knowledge.
0 -
Mr. Isam, can't judge a book by its cover.
Although, it's worth noting a huge number of people do [literally] judge books by their cover.0 -
I will be voting for Charlie Dewhurst in Hammersmith, but the Tories won't win here. Slaughter won against the tide in 2010. Until the Tories come up with a way to fix the private rental market places like Hammersmith are not going to be winnable.0
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The report presumably did not say that UKIP would win 14 seats, it would mean that Labour would not gain 14 seats in the marginal - i.e. the tories would keep them.Casino_Royale said:
I said so on here a week or so ago. UKIP could take Dudley North and Great Grimsby, possibly even Rother Valley, whilst only retaining Clacton.TheScreamingEagles said:The Sun are reporting a study by The University of Sheffield,
NIGEL Farage may end up costing Labour more seats than the Tories, top academics claimed last night.
A bombshell report said that even a two per cent swing from Labour voters to Ukip could cost Ed Miliband a precious 14 constituencies on May 7.0 -
I'm guessing a 5% IPSOS telephone poll lead for the Tories (37-32). After the ICM poll, and the fact that it was taken after a successful manifesto launch, I cannot imagine it to be a Labour lead.
0 -
@iainjwatson: Ed Miliband is cheered by supporters in crouch end -then gives a three min speech ,takes no questions http://t.co/xJUsxPejjC0
-
MORI I'm guessing shows a Labour lead of 4% - in the spirit of their 5% Tory lead at the outset of the 2005 campaign :-)0
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Panel base could be anything from Con Gain Glasgpw to Blairesque 97 majority Labour :-D0
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If they have followed their usual pattern, most of the fieldwork would have been done before the Tory manifesto launch.tyson said:I'm guessing a 5% IPSOS telephone poll lead for the Tories (37-32). After the ICM poll, and the fact that it was taken after a successful manifesto launch, I cannot imagine it to be a Labour lead.
I expect it to have been Sun to Wed inclusive.0 -
The Lab candidate gets close to Ed for a photo opportunity .... shame it'll be one for the LibDem leaflets !!Scott_P said:@iainjwatson: Ed Miliband is cheered by supporters in crouch end -then gives a three min speech ,takes no questions http://t.co/xJUsxPejjC
0 -
http://americablog.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Magnus-Pyke-shouting-Science-sm1.jpgisam said:
Wow! He really smashes any preconception of what a professor looks likeTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Puts a lie to the notion that he is 'in his bunker' prepping for tonight.Scott_P said:@iainjwatson: Ed Miliband is cheered by supporters in crouch end -then gives a three min speech ,takes no questions http://t.co/xJUsxPejjC
0 -
p.37JosiasJessop said:
They do suspect a capacity problem for air traffic, but want to wait for more data before finalising policy.anotherDave said:
UKIP point out that this 'capacity' argument has not been proven:JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
I went through the main UK party manifestos last night to see what they said about rail in general, and HS2 in particular. This seems to be a reasonable summation:
UKIP:
Not in favour. Although does not have other solutions to the capacity problems."The argument that HS2 is needed to provide extra capacity has just weeks ago been questioned by the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, which concluded that: ‘the Government has not made a convincing case for why this particular project should go ahead.’"
"The final report of the Davies Commission into airport capacity and connectivity in the UK will be published later this year. UKIP will consider its recommendations and then take a position on the basis of what we genuinely believe to be in the long-term best interests of the country.
However, we firmly believe that part of the solution to address the lack of airport capacity in the South East is to re-open Manston Airport. Manston is ideally placed to take low-cost airlines and freight-only aircraft; it is close to the railway network; enjoys good connections to Ashford International; will release additional capacity in the region; and take pressure off other airports."
http://www.ukip.org/manifesto2015
I disagree, and so does the data, at least as far as I can see. I have only skim-read the recent HoL report, but at first sight some of its conclusions seem somewhat odd. In particular, they seem to want more certainty than any speculative project could be expected to deliver.
Manston airport is interesting: I haven't looked into it too much, but didn't it close recently as it was economically unviable?
It is slightly odd that UKIP say one reason for it to be reopened is that it has good connections to Ashford International station. Which is on a high-speed rail line. ;-)
Odd? you are very polite.
It is of course special pleading by UKIP and blatant misrepresentation.0 -
Thanks for the clarification on Manston. I thought that one of the airlines that left said it was uneconomic (although it would be easy for an owner to make it 'uneconomic', although I have no idea if that happened). From Wiki I see Flybe left a few years before the purchase and closure, and the previous owners had failed to make a profit with it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Re Manston. No it did not close because it was economically unviable. We have to be careful discussing this because there are lots of people with trigger lawyers who are rather touchy about it. But the airport was bought in November 2013 for £1 and the new owners gave assurances about its future. Just 5 months later they decided to close the airport and are now seeking planning permission for commercial and housing developments on the site.
Oh and the High Speed Rail line at Ashford is a very different kettle of fish from the HS2 given that it serves the Channel Tunnel. Conflating the two is plain dumb.
As much as anything else, an airport with a runway the size of Manston's seems rather too much of a strategic asset to redevelop with housing.
I don't think comparing HS1 and HS2 is dumb; as long as you are aware of the differences, it can be useful. And enough anti-HS2 people like to use HS1 in their arguments. ;-)0 -
I think that is a dead cert. Libs will lose 10% there.Flightpath said:
Someone gave me a tip that Blackwood would win in Oxford West & Abingdon.Roger said:For what it's worth someone gave me a tip that Chorley in Lancashire was a possible Tory gain. Seems most unlikely but he wasn't someone without knowledge.
0 -
Impressively, Greece has managed to have its debt rating downgraded:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32326547
Presumably the new rating is 'fatally radioactive excrement of Satan'.
"A €750m ($800m; £540m) payment is due on 12 May, but the government will struggle to make it."0 -
Manston = Turkey. No one has made it work in the 16 years since it became a civilian airfield, largely due to it's inaccessibility by 97% of the population.JosiasJessop said:
Thanks for the clarification on Manston. I thought that one of the airlines that left said it was uneconomic (although it would be easy for an owner to make it 'uneconomic', although I have no idea if that happened). From Wiki I see Flybe left a few years before the purchase and closure, and the previous owners had failed to make a profit with it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Re Manston. No it did not close because it was economically unviable. We have to be careful discussing this because there are lots of people with trigger lawyers who are rather touchy about it. But the airport was bought in November 2013 for £1 and the new owners gave assurances about its future. Just 5 months later they decided to close the airport and are now seeking planning permission for commercial and housing developments on the site.
Oh and the High Speed Rail line at Ashford is a very different kettle of fish from the HS2 given that it serves the Channel Tunnel. Conflating the two is plain dumb.
As much as anything else, an airport with a runway the size of Manston's seems rather too much of a strategic asset to redevelop with housing.
I don't think comparing HS1 and HS2 is dumb; as long as you are aware of the differences, it can be useful. And enough anti-HS2 people like to use HS1 in their arguments. ;-)
Pick your way through these bones for further insight.
http://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/536378-manston-airport-possible-closure.html0 -
If you fancy it you can buy money with Coral by taking 2-9 on the Tories in Truro and Falmouth.rcs1000 said:
I think that is a dead cert. Libs will lose 10% there.Flightpath said:
Someone gave me a tip that Blackwood would win in Oxford West & Abingdon.Roger said:For what it's worth someone gave me a tip that Chorley in Lancashire was a possible Tory gain. Seems most unlikely but he wasn't someone without knowledge.
Incumbency, SW and facing the Lib Dems.0 -
KLM left but that was only after the new owners announced a consultation on closure. KLM rightly claimed they could not operate from Manston under those circumstances as they needed to make long term plans. They had previously committed to the airport and were part of the freight expansion plans.JosiasJessop said:
Thanks for the clarification on Manston. I thought that one of the airlines that left said it was uneconomic (although it would be easy for an owner to make it 'uneconomic', although I have no idea if that happened). From Wiki I see Flybe left a few years before the purchase and closure, and the previous owners had failed to make a profit with it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Re Manston. No it did not close because it was economically unviable. We have to be careful discussing this because there are lots of people with trigger lawyers who are rather touchy about it. But the airport was bought in November 2013 for £1 and the new owners gave assurances about its future. Just 5 months later they decided to close the airport and are now seeking planning permission for commercial and housing developments on the site.
Oh and the High Speed Rail line at Ashford is a very different kettle of fish from the HS2 given that it serves the Channel Tunnel. Conflating the two is plain dumb.
As much as anything else, an airport with a runway the size of Manston's seems rather too much of a strategic asset to redevelop with housing.
I don't think comparing HS1 and HS2 is dumb; as long as you are aware of the differences, it can be useful. And enough anti-HS2 people like to use HS1 in their arguments. ;-)
And for the record I have never used HS1 as part of my arguments against HS2. HS1 is unique in its role as the connection via the Channel Tunnel but I doubt many people use it to get from London to Ashford.0 -
The Torygraph sets new standards in journalistic integrity:-
4m ago10:19
Labour has responded to the Telegraph’s attack on the party’s election guru David Axelrod, who the paper says pays no tax on his “reported £300,000 earnings” in Britain.
However, Labour has said Axelrod, who founded AKPD Media, pays no tax in the UK because he does not live or work here. A party spokesman told the Press Association:
David Axelrod lives in the US, works in the US and pays tax in the US. We pay AKPD Media in the US in US dollars. There is no tax due in the UK.
As Peter said earlier, Telegraph’s attack seems pure tit-for-tat for similar allegations about the Tories’ strategist, Lynton Crosby.
(Guardian)0 -
I disagree, and so does the data, at least as far as I can see. I have only skim-read the recent HoL report, but at first sight some of its conclusions seem somewhat odd. In particular, they seem to want more certainty than any speculative project could be expected to deliver.Flightpath said:
p.37JosiasJessop said:
They do suspect a capacity problem for air traffic, but want to wait for more data before finalising policy.anotherDave said:
UKIP point out that this 'capacity' argument has not been proven:JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
I went through the main UK party manifestos last night to see what they said about rail in general, and HS2 in particular. This seems to be a reasonable summation:
UKIP:
Not in favour. Although does not have other solutions to the capacity problems."The argument that HS2 is needed to provide extra capacity has just weeks ago been questioned by the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, which concluded that: ‘the Government has not made a convincing case for why this particular project should go ahead.’"
"The final report of the Davies Commission into airport capacity and connectivity in the UK will be published later this year. UKIP will consider its recommendations and then take a position on the basis of what we genuinely believe to be in the long-term best interests of the country.
However, we firmly believe that part of the solution to address the lack of airport capacity in the South East is to re-open Manston Airport. Manston is ideally placed to take low-cost airlines and freight-only aircraft; it is close to the railway network; enjoys good connections to Ashford International; will release additional capacity in the region; and take pressure off other airports."
http://www.ukip.org/manifesto2015
Manston airport is interesting: I haven't looked into it too much, but didn't it close recently as it was economically unviable?
It is slightly odd that UKIP say one reason for it to be reopened is that it has good connections to Ashford International station. Which is on a high-speed rail line. ;-)
Odd? you are very polite.
It is of course special pleading by UKIP and blatant misrepresentation.
And once again up pops Flightpath with his idiotic, ill informed, inanities.0 -
1-5 still up with Coral on Ashfield. (Labour vs Lib Dem)
0 -
It is a busy commuter route.Richard_Tyndall said:JosiasJessop said:
Thanks for the clarification on Manston. I thought that one of the airlines that left said it was uneconomic (although it would be easy for an owner to make it 'uneconomic', although I have no idea if that happened). From Wiki I see Flybe left a few years before the purchase and closure, and the previous owners had failed to make a profit with it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Re Manston. No it did not close because it was economically unviable. We have to be careful discussing this because there are lots of people with trigger lawyers who are rather touchy about it. But the airport was bought in November 2013 for £1 and the new owners gave assurances about its future. Just 5 months later they decided to close the airport and are now seeking planning permission for commercial and housing developments on the site.
Oh and the High Speed Rail line at Ashford is a very different kettle of fish from the HS2 given that it serves the Channel Tunnel. Conflating the two is plain dumb.
As much as anything else, an airport with a runway the size of Manston's seems rather too much of a strategic asset to redevelop with housing.
I don't think comparing HS1 and HS2 is dumb; as long as you are aware of the differences, it can be useful. And enough anti-HS2 people like to use HS1 in their arguments. ;-)
And for the record I have never used HS1 as part of my arguments against HS2. HS1 is unique in its role as the connection via the Channel Tunnel but I doubt many people use it to get from London to Ashford.
Thereby expanding rail capacity through Kent. Capacity is one of the main supporting arguments for HS2.0 -
This is very depressing. I'll have to congratulate my mate for knowing what he is talking about!rcs1000 said:
I think that is a dead cert. Libs will lose 10% there.Flightpath said:
Someone gave me a tip that Blackwood would win in Oxford West & Abingdon.Roger said:For what it's worth someone gave me a tip that Chorley in Lancashire was a possible Tory gain. Seems most unlikely but he wasn't someone without knowledge.
0 -
"Re Manston. No it did not close because it was economically unviable. We have to be careful discussing this because there are lots of people with trigger lawyers who are rather touchy about it. But the airport was bought in November 2013 for £1 and the new owners gave assurances about its future. Just 5 months later they decided to close the airport and are now seeking planning permission for commercial and housing developments on the site.
Oh and the High Speed Rail line at Ashford is a very different kettle of fish from the HS2 given that it serves the Channel Tunnel. Conflating the two is plain dumb."
Quite so Richard. The Manston situation is a disgrace. There were a fair number of job losses at the airport and from supporting industries. Manston was also a great training facility which I remember fondly.
I disagree with you slightly re the High Speed line at Ashford. The HS1 runs those steels up through the Medway towns into St Pancras, so I think some comparison is viable.0 -
She will win easily - even friends of mine who are of the left persuasion think she has been a good MP - relative lack of orange diamond boards even in Summertown and up the Woodstock road tells me she is a dead certrcs1000 said:
I think that is a dead cert. Libs will lose 10% there.Flightpath said:
Someone gave me a tip that Blackwood would win in Oxford West & Abingdon.Roger said:For what it's worth someone gave me a tip that Chorley in Lancashire was a possible Tory gain. Seems most unlikely but he wasn't someone without knowledge.
0 -
Built as a diversionary airfield for Bomber Command. FIDO-capable IIRC.TheWatcher said:
Manston = Turkey. No one has made it work in the 16 years since it became a civilian airfield, largely due to it's inaccessibility by 97% of the population.JosiasJessop said:
Thanks for the clarification on Manston. I thought that one of the airlines that left said it was uneconomic (although it would be easy for an owner to make it 'uneconomic', although I have no idea if that happened). From Wiki I see Flybe left a few years before the purchase and closure, and the previous owners had failed to make a profit with it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Re Manston. No it did not close because it was economically unviable. We have to be careful discussing this because there are lots of people with trigger lawyers who are rather touchy about it. But the airport was bought in November 2013 for £1 and the new owners gave assurances about its future. Just 5 months later they decided to close the airport and are now seeking planning permission for commercial and housing developments on the site.
Oh and the High Speed Rail line at Ashford is a very different kettle of fish from the HS2 given that it serves the Channel Tunnel. Conflating the two is plain dumb.
As much as anything else, an airport with a runway the size of Manston's seems rather too much of a strategic asset to redevelop with housing.
I don't think comparing HS1 and HS2 is dumb; as long as you are aware of the differences, it can be useful. And enough anti-HS2 people like to use HS1 in their arguments. ;-)
Pick your way through these bones for further insight.
http://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/536378-manston-airport-possible-closure.html
0 -
It's more than that - there are a clutch of Con/Lab marginals, such as Thurrock, South Thanet, Cannock Chase, etc, which in a "normal" election would be looking good for Labour gains, but a large UKIP vote could see the Tories hang on, or UKIP win.Casino_Royale said:
I said so on here a week or so ago. UKIP could take Dudley North and Great Grimsby, possibly even Rother Valley, whilst only retaining Clacton.TheScreamingEagles said:The Sun are reporting a study by The University of Sheffield,
NIGEL Farage may end up costing Labour more seats than the Tories, top academics claimed last night.
A bombshell report said that even a two per cent swing from Labour voters to Ukip could cost Ed Miliband a precious 14 constituencies on May 7.
If UKIP were only disgruntled Tories then those seats would be certain Labour gains.0 -
Drive down Botley Road, up Cumnor Hill and into Abingdon. You can't move for Orange Diamonds.kingbongo said:
She will win easily - even friends of mine who are of the left persuasion think she has been a good MP - relative lack of orange diamond boards even in Summertown and up the Woodstock road tells me she is a dead certrcs1000 said:
I think that is a dead cert. Libs will lose 10% there.Flightpath said:
Someone gave me a tip that Blackwood would win in Oxford West & Abingdon.Roger said:For what it's worth someone gave me a tip that Chorley in Lancashire was a possible Tory gain. Seems most unlikely but he wasn't someone without knowledge.
0 -
Pulpstar @Pulpstar 2h2 hours ago
@Survation Is the Dunbartonshire East poll by yourselves or along the lines of the WAK poll ?
Survation. @Survation 2h2 hours ago
@Pulpstar WAK. - field & tab only.0 -
"And for the record I have never used HS1 as part of my arguments against HS2. HS1 is unique in its role as the connection via the Channel Tunnel but I doubt many people use it to get from London to Ashford."
Not so Mr Tyndall. Some mornings one can't get a seat on the damn thing at Sittingbourne!0 -
@MSmithsonPB: Prof John Curtice: Lab can win majority with 5% vote lead. Tories need at least 7% depending on CON LD battles0
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Interesting, thanks Roger. 8/1 doesn't appeal, but the fact it's so short is intriguing in itself. You could just about see the Tories winning on exceptional UKIP effects (i.e. Lab --> UKIP and current UKIP --> Con)Roger said:For what it's worth someone gave me a tip that Chorley in Lancashire was a possible Tory gain. Seems most unlikely but he wasn't someone without knowledge.
0 -
There was the most vomit-inducing sycophantic article in the Evening Standard last night about the Labour candidate in the Hampstead & Kilburn constituency along with quotes from typical Kilburn inhabitants such as Jonathan Miller, David Hare, Greg Wise and others. There are poor parts of the constituency and there are issues - the synagogues with guards outside them, a sight that I never though to see in a constituency which historically has had a large number of Holocaust survivors and others fleeing persecution from Continental Europe living in it, for instance, the lack of state school places and affordable housing - but the only example Tulip Siddiq brought up was a Somali woman who had lived in Hampstead all her life (I don't think so) and would have to move to Kent because of the bedroom tax - the horror! Oh - and she's against fracking, a problem which obviously keeps us awake at night in NW6. It was like Glenda Jackson boasting about how she'd voted against hunting in her leaflet a couple of elections ago - as if that's an important issue in an inner city constituency.
It was like having a young Marie Antoinette pitching for votes. It brought out my inner sans-culotte reading it on the tube last night.
Meanwhile in a much smaller article in the same paper it was revealed that the police have advised the Lib Dem candidate, Maajid Nawaz, to install a panic button at his home because of specific and credible threats to kill him from IS.
A snapshot of life in London in the 21st century before an election.0 -
You can hardly blame KLM for leaving under those circumstances! As an aside, I looked into Manston a few years ago when I was looking into whether Boris Island or Heathrow expansion was the better bet, and the thing that stuck in my mind was 'Manston was uneconomic'. The fact the previous owners failed to make a profit indicates that might be right, but that does not mean it always had to be unprofitable.Richard_Tyndall said:
KLM left but that was only after the new owners announced a consultation on closure. KLM rightly claimed they could not operate from Manston under those circumstances as they needed to make long term plans. They had previously committed to the airport and were part of the freight expansion plans.JosiasJessop said:
Thanks for the clarification on Manston. I thought that one of the airlines that left said it was uneconomic (although it would be easy for an owner to make it 'uneconomic', although I have no idea if that happened). From Wiki I see Flybe left a few years before the purchase and closure, and the previous owners had failed to make a profit with it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Re Manston. No it did not close because it was economically unviable. We have to be careful discussing this because there are lots of people with trigger lawyers who are rather touchy about it. But the airport was bought in November 2013 for £1 and the new owners gave assurances about its future. Just 5 months later they decided to close the airport and are now seeking planning permission for commercial and housing developments on the site.
Oh and the High Speed Rail line at Ashford is a very different kettle of fish from the HS2 given that it serves the Channel Tunnel. Conflating the two is plain dumb.
As much as anything else, an airport with a runway the size of Manston's seems rather too much of a strategic asset to redevelop with housing.
I don't think comparing HS1 and HS2 is dumb; as long as you are aware of the differences, it can be useful. And enough anti-HS2 people like to use HS1 in their arguments. ;-)
And for the record I have never used HS1 as part of my arguments against HS2. HS1 is unique in its role as the connection via the Channel Tunnel but I doubt many people use it to get from London to Ashford.
I never accused you of that: but many anti-HS2 people do use it as an example. AFAICR, passenger numbers from Ashford on Eurotunnel have been disappointing (but not as much as Ebbsfleet, where there is not even a town yet, and even that is improving). Partly this is because passengers cannot take Eurostar services from Ebbsfleet or Ashford into London ...
And all such projects are 'unique' in one way or another. That does not mean you cannot make valid comparisons on the similarities.0 -
Morning all
Not had much chance to comment for a couple of days but it seems plenty on here seem to have much more time on their hands than I.
The Manifesto launches were predictable but interesting - I had a sense of a lack of confidence among all the parties but especially Conservative and Labour with the reality of the misery of Government intruding onto their attempts to sound positive or statesman-like.
I'm reminded of Stodge's Fourth Law of politics which states "saying what people want to hear is easy. Doing what people want you to do is difficult" and the Tenth Law which states "if it's right it won't be popular. If it's popular, it won't be right."
Hearing Ed Miliband sound serious about the deficit was as discordant as hearing David Cameron throwing money around left, right and centre. Neither spoke with conviction but it marked a new phase - the initial negativity (why should you NOT vote for the other party) followed by positivty (why should you vote for me). It's all classic political campaigning stuff and again suggests a rather baseline-tennis attitude to the process.
I did think Labour took a step toward the LDs and clearly the route to a Lab minority Government with LD support rather than SNP support is one Ed Miliband has to consider. For all their rhetoric, past experience tells us however the Conservatives are nothing if not pragmatic and Coalition 2.0 remains an option at CCHQ. I'm far from convinced Nick Clegg can sell Coalition 2.0 to the Party and that might be the point (assuming he is still an MP) when he decides to go and leave negotiations with Labour (if there are any) to someone else.
I also think given Conservative pragmatism this is a risky option for Ed M as he risks being outflanked by a CON-SNP deal which I consider far more likely than many on here. Supping with the Devil may require a long spoon but given a choice between that and the luxury of futility in Opposition, I suspect both Dave and Nicola will be going through their cutlery.0 -
I notice he has reduced his estimate from 11%, Tory vote almost as efficient as Labour's vote now.TheScreamingEagles said:@MSmithsonPB: Prof John Curtice: Lab can win majority with 5% vote lead. Tories need at least 7% depending on CON LD battles
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