For what it's worth someone gave me a tip that Chorley in Lancashire was a possible Tory gain. Seems most unlikely but he wasn't someone without knowledge.
Someone gave me a tip that Blackwood would win in Oxford West & Abingdon.
I think that is a dead cert. Libs will lose 10% there.
She will win easily - even friends of mine who are of the left persuasion think she has been a good MP - relative lack of orange diamond boards even in Summertown and up the Woodstock road tells me she is a dead cert
I have a crush on Nicola Blackwood. Charming lady.
For what it's worth someone gave me a tip that Chorley in Lancashire was a possible Tory gain. Seems most unlikely but he wasn't someone without knowledge.
I mentioned Chorley on here as a seat that I could see might be trending to the Conservatives over time for demographic reasons, and so could go against the tide (if there is one).
I find myself agreeing with Mr Jessop again. ''I don't think comparing HS1 and HS2 is dumb; as long as you are aware of the differences, it can be useful. And enough anti-HS2 people like to use HS1 in their arguments. ;-)''
Only 2km separates the two and only an ocean of politics stops them being directly linked as was first proposed. The sudden increase in viability of Manston by being close to a HS rail line sits at odds with UKIPs opportunistic 'anti' stance on HS2.
The Sun are reporting a study by The University of Sheffield,
NIGEL Farage may end up costing Labour more seats than the Tories, top academics claimed last night.
A bombshell report said that even a two per cent swing from Labour voters to Ukip could cost Ed Miliband a precious 14 constituencies on May 7.
I said so on here a week or so ago. UKIP could take Dudley North and Great Grimsby, possibly even Rother Valley, whilst only retaining Clacton.
The report presumably did not say that UKIP would win 14 seats, it would mean that Labour would not gain 14 seats in the marginal - i.e. the tories would keep them.
Fair point, it's a bit of both. For the record, i still think there's a distinct chance UKIP could take more off Labour than the Tories. Maybe. I'd prob want 7/2 on it though.
I can see the case for voting tactically Lib Dem even if it wouldn't be helpful to my book.
But Labour ?!
That could be the most incredible act of self harm for the Scottish Tories since forever.
Exactly how I feel about it as well. Tactically voting for the Lib Dems would be okay, but for Labour? No way. More Labour MPs is bad news for the national party.
MORI I'm guessing shows a Labour lead of 4% - in the spirit of their 5% Tory lead at the outset of the 2005 campaign :-)
IpsosMORI really could be anything. Even a ramped 'no change' poll. So no one should get their hopes up or down, or sideways!
Well, they do tend to favour the Tories methodology wise as it comes close to election as they go for 10/10 certain to vote figure which is better (usually) for the blues, but on the basis of everything being counter-intuitive in this election, Lab lead it is!
I was once polled on behalf of the Lib Dems back in the early 2000's - I think prior to the 2001 election. At one point the pollster asked me a question along the lines of "The Lib Dems want to give free puppies to everyone would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them"
I said "Less likely". The pollster paused for half a beat and then half-chuckled and ask why and I said "They promised free university education in Scotland and they abandoned that to go into coalition so I don't believe them on this poliocy now"
The whole poll was like that, basically repeatedly asking given how awesome the Lib Dems were whether I would vote for them.
You can hardly blame KLM for leaving under those circumstances! As an aside, I looked into Manston a few years ago when I was looking into whether Boris Island or Heathrow expansion was the better bet, and the thing that stuck in my mind was 'Manston was uneconomic'. The fact the previous owners failed to make a profit indicates that might be right, but that does not mean it always had to be unprofitable.
I never accused you of that: but many anti-HS2 people do use it as an example. AFAICR, passenger numbers from Ashford on Eurotunnel have been disappointing (but not as much as Ebbsfleet, where there is not even a town yet, and even that is improving). Partly this is because passengers cannot take Eurostar services from Ebbsfleet or Ashford into London ...
And all such projects are 'unique' in one way or another. That does not mean you cannot make valid comparisons on the similarities.
I wasn't blaming KLM at all. It was inevitable that if the future of the airport was cast into doubt then they would have to make such a decision. The point I was making was that it was not a case of them pulling out because the route was not profitable for them but rather as a direct result of the decision to shut the airport just months after it had been bought with assurances about its long term future.
It is not difficult to see the thinking behind the purchase given the subsequent application for redevelopment by the owners after it was shut down.
I can see the case for voting tactically Lib Dem even if it wouldn't be helpful to my book.
But Labour ?!
That could be the most incredible act of self harm for the Scottish Tories since forever.
Yes. In theory the LDs have been coalition partners and there is some logic in the two 'helping each other out' in some seats. But helping Labour out of the mess they created seems more than silly. As it is the LDs have gone out of their way to rubbish Tories all through the coalition and I hardly see them stopping now, so if there ever was any logic to politics then tories should just vote tory. Anyone interested in the centre right in Scotland has no one else to vote for.
I find myself agreeing with Mr Jessop again. ''I don't think comparing HS1 and HS2 is dumb; as long as you are aware of the differences, it can be useful. And enough anti-HS2 people like to use HS1 in their arguments. ;-)''
Only 2km separates the two and only an ocean of politics stops them being directly linked as was first proposed. The sudden increase in viability of Manston by being close to a HS rail line sits at odds with UKIPs opportunistic 'anti' stance on HS2.
I disagree about the HS1<->HS2 link. It was always a weak spot in the plans, and if it was to be done, deserved better than the single-track plan that emerged. Having said that, I'm in two minds about whether it should have been cut. It's certainly stopped a lot of the whinging from people who lived on the route.
One of the biggest arguments against HS2 in my mind is that it is not part of a properly planned network: Crossrail, HS1, HS2, HS3, Crossrail 2, EGIP and its successors, along with the various rail electrification schemes, are all kept rather separate. In the long run this ends up being rather expensive.
It would be lovely if we could have a fully joined-up transport plan in the UK. Sadly that is well beyond us. And not just in transport.
As for HS2: the thing that will kill it are the Euston plans. Euston requires vast amounts of money thrown at it to do properly, and I'm afraid that cost savings will stop it being done properly. ALthough I've not been keeping current with the latest news for time reasons.
And if that happens, Euston will just be redeveloped anyway for conventional services, as it is vastly in need of redevelopment. ;-)
I can see the case for voting tactically Lib Dem even if it wouldn't be helpful to my book.
But Labour ?!
That could be the most incredible act of self harm for the Scottish Tories since forever.
I guess that the Tories would rather see a Scottish Labour MP than an SNP MP, as they're both unionist, but it would be pretty marginal. I'm sure that the Tories would rather see a LibDem MP than an SNP MP as it makes a 2nd Con-LD coalition more likely.
More child abuse allegations. Lord Janner hmmm sounds very Pakistani/Muslim name I guess it's just the PC brigade gone mad....
The (deliberate?) misunderstanding by people wanting to paint others as racist is something to behold
The disgrace in rotherham politically was not the abuse but the reason it was covered up. We have known for years that the rich and powerful get crimes and misdemeanours hushed up for them. Rotherham was the first real proof that political correctness hushed up crimes on the basis of race and religion (not forgetting poor Victoria Climbie)
I know you post on here an awful lot but do you have the slightest inkling about how politics works are you just a partisan who believes their party is always right and everyone else is always wrong ?
Stodge's First Law states "it's all about power, stupid". If the electoral arithemetic offers him no other option in terms of staying in office as leader of a stable Government, David Cameron will be on the telephone to Nicola Sturgeon to offer a deal. Sturgeon won't put the phone down on him because she knows she will be in a position to get a whole lot more than she would complaining from the Opposition benches.
You have to ignore election campaign rhetoric - like most of the bets struck on here and most of the polls we slavishly micro-analyse, they are meaningless. David Cameron and Nick Clegg tore lumps out of each other last time but less than 24 hours after the polls closed, Cameron was offering talks.
That's how politics works - Cameron and Sturgeon (or their negotiating terms) will get together and aim to thrash out a deal. My guess is such a deal is actually quite simple - in exchange for SNP support for primarily non-Scottish legislation (the WLQ be damned), the Conservatives will offer everything but independence. Sturgeon and the SNP will be provided carte blanche to run Scotland as they see fit while Sturgeon's troops will go through the Westminster lobbies to ensure Cameron can do the same in England and Wales (nationalist solidarity be damned likewise).
It won't be nice and some will equate it to Molotov-Ribbentrop in the summer of 1939 but it's all about power and practical politics.
For what it's worth someone gave me a tip that Chorley in Lancashire was a possible Tory gain. Seems most unlikely but he wasn't someone without knowledge.
Someone gave me a tip that Blackwood would win in Oxford West & Abingdon.
I think that is a dead cert. Libs will lose 10% there.
She will win easily - even friends of mine who are of the left persuasion think she has been a good MP - relative lack of orange diamond boards even in Summertown and up the Woodstock road tells me she is a dead cert
I have a crush on Nicola Blackwood. Charming lady.
that's why I voted for her in '10 :-) also the chance to get rid of Dr Evil was a bonus
I can see the case for voting tactically Lib Dem even if it wouldn't be helpful to my book.
But Labour ?!
That could be the most incredible act of self harm for the Scottish Tories since forever.
Yes. In theory the LDs have been coalition partners and there is some logic in the two 'helping each other out' in some seats. But helping Labour out of the mess they created seems more than silly. As it is the LDs have gone out of their way to rubbish Tories all through the coalition and I hardly see them stopping now, so if there ever was any logic to politics then tories should just vote tory. Anyone interested in the centre right in Scotland has no one else to vote for.
However much the Tory leadership want to encourage tactical voting, the message isn't getting through to the grassroots. Here's the Tory candidate for Gordon's view:
"Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote."Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else.
"Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies.
@stodge The SNP and Conservatives won't do any sort of deal. And the reason is deeply political - the SNP wants a majority in Holyrood in 2016. That will allow them to push for IndyRef 2...
If they do a deal with the Conservatives, their fox is shot. If you think the swing to the SNP looks big at this election, wait for the swing to Labour in Holyrood 2016.
Fwiw I may vote either Conservative or UKIP. The personal attacks on Miliband disgust me and I'm not in the slightest worried about a Labour Gov't. But there are parts of the Conservative manifesto I like.
Sturgeon will not do a deal with Dave, not a chance. Zero, zip, zilch. She won't even abstain - I have Labour down as more likely to deal with Dave quite honestly. There is no Northern Ireland situation here and in the event of World War 3 we get a grand coalition. The chance of an SNP-Conservative zero is one of the biggest zero chances we have at this election.
@MichaelLCrick: Ed Miliband several times refused to answer my questions on why American adviser David Axelrod doesn't pay UK tax on his income from Labour.
Stodge's First Law states "it's all about power, stupid". If the electoral arithemetic offers him no other option in terms of staying in office as leader of a stable Government, David Cameron will be on the telephone to Nicola Sturgeon to offer a deal. Sturgeon won't put the phone down on him because she knows she will be in a position to get a whole lot more than she would complaining from the Opposition benches.
Stodge, the key question for a Con/SNP deal would be whether the Tories have a majority in England. At the moment they have a majority of 60-ish in England. If the Tories still have an English majority on May 8th then the SNP don't need to vote with the Tories on anything other than a Bill creating DevoMax for Scotland and English Votes for an English Budget.
Their maximum upside between now and polling, not withstanding and unknown events between now and then, is no more than 2% mainly via squeezing UKIP. I know not all UKIP voters are ex tory - but the narrative of the campaigns leads me to believe that these are the most likely switchers - ergo, I don't see many Labour /UKIP switchers coming back home.
The swing whatever it ends up being will not be uniform. I think we will see some odd LAB-CON swings in some areas even in the likely event that this is against the national average.
Looking at the CON targets on UK Polling Report, I do not see many (if any) potential gains for CON from LAB.
Conclusion: - CON will get most seats but not enough to enter negotiations with LD/DUP LAB may need support from both SNP and LD to form government.
There was the most vomit-inducing sycophantic article in the Evening Standard last night about the Labour candidate in the Hampstead & Kilburn constituency along with quotes from typical Kilburn inhabitants such as Jonathan Miller, David Hare, Greg Wise and others. There are poor parts of the constituency and there are issues - the synagogues with guards outside them, a sight that I never though to see in a constituency which historically has had a large number of Holocaust survivors and others fleeing persecution from Continental Europe living in it, for instance, the lack of state school places and affordable housing - but the only example Tulip Siddiq brought up was a Somali woman who had lived in Hampstead all her life (I don't think so) and would have to move to Kent because of the bedroom tax - the horror! Oh - and she's against fracking, a problem which obviously keeps us awake at night in NW6. It was like Glenda Jackson boasting about how she'd voted against hunting in her leaflet a couple of elections ago - as if that's an important issue in an inner city constituency.
It was like having a young Marie Antoinette pitching for votes. It brought out my inner sans-culotte reading it on the tube last night.
Meanwhile in a much smaller article in the same paper it was revealed that the police have advised the Lib Dem candidate, Maajid Nawaz, to install a panic button at his home because of specific and credible threats to kill him from IS.
A snapshot of life in London in the 21st century before an election.
It was by Rosamund Urwin who is probably the most left-wing and anti-Tory journalist the ES have. Her articles ooze negativity, sarcasm and cynicism, and she wonders why she never gets any valentines cards.
I found the numerous luvvie endorsements and shrillness about the Tories absolutely hilarious.
The fellows that delivered my Ukip sign last night said that it would be unheard of for a party with no councillors in the seat to win it at the GE... We were talking Dag and Rainham
Labour has responded to the Telegraph’s attack on the party’s election guru David Axelrod, who the paper says pays no tax on his “reported £300,000 earnings” in Britain.
However, Labour has said Axelrod, who founded AKPD Media, pays no tax in the UK because he does not live or work here. A party spokesman told the Press Association:
David Axelrod lives in the US, works in the US and pays tax in the US. We pay AKPD Media in the US in US dollars. There is no tax due in the UK.
As Peter said earlier, Telegraph’s attack seems pure tit-for-tat for similar allegations about the Tories’ strategist, Lynton Crosby. "
"The proportion of voters who are happy with how he is doing his job has risen from 28 to 33 per cent, while the percentage dissatisfied has dropped from 59 to 52. These are his best figures since October 2013.
Mr Farage has suffered another dip in his ratings, which are now almost as bad as Nick Clegg’s. Some 56 per cent are dissatisfied with him, which is his highest yet."
@TGOHF It depends on how many pensioners forgot they now had to register, along with "why they came into the kitchen in the first place...or which kitchen?
"Labour has responded to the Telegraph’s attack on the party’s election guru David Axelrod, who the paper says pays no tax on his “reported £300,000 earnings” in Britain."
They shouldn't even bother. I work in the US a lot. I pay English tax on my earnings there. How could it be any other way? The problem is ignorant people like Max on here last night were calling him a non dom!
"Regions which saw the biggest fall in registered voters tended to be in the north of the UK. The north east of England fell by 3.5 per cent.
Constituencies with the biggest fall have a strong university presence. The largest drop was in Cardiff Central which saw an 18.3 per cent drop, followed by Liverpool Riverside, Newcastle upon Tyne East, Nottingham South and Ceredigion.
An analysis by the FT of the initial figures released earlier this year found that Labour-held marginals had seen a bigger decline in the number of registered voters than Conservative held marginals."
They have definitely got the balance much better in this election than they did in 2010. Unfortunately it was in 2010 that a majority was there for the taking.
"Labour has responded to the Telegraph’s attack on the party’s election guru David Axelrod, who the paper says pays no tax on his “reported £300,000 earnings” in Britain."
They shouldn't even bother. I work in the US a lot. I pay English tax on my earnings there. How could it be any other way? The problem is ignorant people like Max on here last night were calling him a non dom!
Any apology Old Rog? Also, want to correct the record on Zac Goldsmith, after you repeatedly made false claims about him?
Also, you are wrong again in terms of where he could get paid and pays tax....nothing to do with non-dom....
The Telegraph story is a bit thin, but then the Labour Party have spouted absolutely nonsense when it comes to tax efficiency, lumping perfectly sensible and reasonable approaches in with people on the massive dodge.
Stodge's First Law states "it's all about power, stupid". If the electoral arithemetic offers him no other option in terms of staying in office as leader of a stable Government, David Cameron will be on the telephone to Nicola Sturgeon to offer a deal. Sturgeon won't put the phone down on him because she knows she will be in a position to get a whole lot more than she would complaining from the Opposition benches.
Stodge, the key question for a Con/SNP deal would be whether the Tories have a majority in England. At the moment they have a majority of 60-ish in England. If the Tories still have an English majority on May 8th then the SNP don't need to vote with the Tories on anything other than a Bill creating DevoMax for Scotland and English Votes for an English Budget.
The main advantage under those circumstances for the SNP would be that they wouldn't have to actually vote for anything. All they would have to do is abstain on agreed measures and Cameron would still win. It would be EVEL in practice (apart from whatever rump of SLAB was left) which could suit both parties rather nicely.
Don't forget, an awful lot of ex-Tory voters must currently be voting SNP, because there simply are not enough ex-Labour (by which I mean Old Labour - some may have come via New Labour) voters to deliver these kind of numbers for them. I don't suppose they'd be too appalled in practice by a Tory government in England.
Stodge's First Law states "it's all about power, stupid". If the electoral arithemetic offers him no other option in terms of staying in office as leader of a stable Government, David Cameron will be on the telephone to Nicola Sturgeon to offer a deal. Sturgeon won't put the phone down on him because she knows she will be in a position to get a whole lot more than she would complaining from the Opposition benches.
Stodge, the key question for a Con/SNP deal would be whether the Tories have a majority in England. At the moment they have a majority of 60-ish in England. If the Tories still have an English majority on May 8th then the SNP don't need to vote with the Tories on anything other than a Bill creating DevoMax for Scotland and English Votes for an English Budget.
The main advantage under those circumstances for the SNP would be that they wouldn't have to actually vote for anything. All they would have to do is abstain on agreed measures and Cameron would still win. It would be EVEL in practice (apart from whatever rump of SLAB was left) which could suit both parties rather nicely.
Don't forget, an awful lot of ex-Tory voters must currently be voting SNP, because there simply are not enough ex-Labour (by which I mean Old Labour - some may have come via New Labour) voters to deliver these kind of numbers for them. I don't suppose they'd be too appalled in practice by a Tory government in England.
And UKIP's idea of campaigning in Scotland is to promise to cut the budget - not just in the manifesto but also viva voce in the form of Mr Coburn MEP, IIRC.
When I say "Do a deal" I mean the SNP WILL vote against a Conservative Queen's speech. What happens once Dave is in Gov'tif that is the case is of course another matter entirely.
I'd expect SNP MPs to try and work for maximum Scottish advantage if that is the case.
Not sure what that has to do with the likely relocation of many financial jobs south of the border had the Nats won the referendum ? Bizarre.
I don't know AVIVA (The old Norwich Union (+ General Accident, Fire and Life Assurance Corporation + Commercial Union) is based, surprise, surprise, in Norwich - but presumably still has offices in Perth.
Mind you - this is potentially ruinous for Aviva - it makes the stupidity of fixed returns for Equitable life customers look like the essence of prudence.
Constituencies with the biggest fall have a strong university presence. The largest drop was in Cardiff Central which saw an 18.3 per cent drop, followed by Liverpool Riverside, Newcastle upon Tyne East, Nottingham South and Ceredigion.
That doesn't surprise me. In 2001 I was automatically registered by the Students Union to vote in Aberystwyth, even though as far as I was concerned I still lived in the Forest of Dean and in fact remained registered to vote there until 2004 (so in the Euro elections of that year, I actually had two votes). They did this because they were not very bright and assumed that I would vote for Plaid Cymru the way they did. This was a ghastly oversight because of the three halls they registered, only one was Welsh-language (the smallest one, at that) and continuing with this practice handed the seat to the Liberal Democrats in 2005.
Now that you have to make the effort to register, it's less likely that such duplication will happen. I doubt if it will cost Williams Ceredigion now he's the incumbent, but it might lead to a few shocks elsewhere - Oxford East might have a big cut in its Labour vote, for example.
They have definitely got the balance much better in this election than they did in 2010. Unfortunately it was in 2010 that a majority was there for the taking.
David, I beg to differ. In 1979 Margaret Thatcher took on a minority Labour government. In 1997 Tony Blair took on a minority Conservative government. In 2010 David Cameron took on a Labour government with a retiring majority of over 50 seats. Had Cameron been taking on a minority Brown government there can be little doubt he would have secured an overall majority.
Eh? The 1992-97 govt of Major wasn't a minority. It was just undermined by the 'bastards'
By the end it was a minority government.
It is always assumed that the DUP would support the Tories. Will the Tories agree to the Bedroom tax be removed, at least, in NI. That is one of their major demands. They have to show their working class electorate that they got something in the bargain.
Why wouldn't they just devolve it? No principle set.
For the UKIP vs LibDem bet we're going to need to see some ties in the polls soon to make it interesting. So far it's just the 'rogue' ICM poll that gives any creedence to UKIP clawing back 3rd place. 13% vs 8% is where I think the parties are at with 3 weeks to go.
Constituencies with the biggest fall have a strong university presence. The largest drop was in Cardiff Central which saw an 18.3 per cent drop, followed by Liverpool Riverside, Newcastle upon Tyne East, Nottingham South and Ceredigion.
That doesn't surprise me. In 2001 I was automatically registered by the Students Union to vote in Aberystwyth, even though as far as I was concerned I still lived in the Forest of Dean and in fact remained registered to vote there until 2004 (so in the Euro elections of that year, I actually had two votes). They did this because they were not very bright and assumed that I would vote for Plaid Cymru the way they did. This was a ghastly oversight because of the three halls they registered, only one was Welsh-language (the smallest one, at that) and continuing with this practice handed the seat to the Liberal Democrats in 2005.
Now that you have to make the effort to register, it's less likely that such duplication will happen. I doubt if it will cost Williams Ceredigion now he's the incumbent, but it might lead to a few shocks elsewhere - Oxford East might have a big cut in its Labour vote, for example.
Same with Nottingham South, which contains most of the University of Nottingham halls.
Not sure what that has to do with the likely relocation of many financial jobs south of the border had the Nats won the referendum ? Bizarre.
I don't know AVIVA (The old Norwich Union (+ General Accident, Fire and Life Assurance Corporation + Commercial Union) is based, surprise, surprise, in Norwich - but presumably still has offices in Perth.
Mind you - this is potentially ruinous for Aviva - it makes the stupidity of fixed returns for Equitable life customers look like the essence of prudence.
Perth site is mostly just a call centre now.. shame the once magnificent World HQ of General Accident has grounds falling into disrepair.
If only Scotland's government was more business friendly..
For the UKIP vs LibDem bet we're going to need to see some ties in the polls soon to make it interesting. So far it's just the 'rogue' ICM poll that gives any creedence to UKIP clawing back 3rd place. 13% vs 8% is where I think the parties are at with 3 weeks to go.
sorry that should say Lib Dems clawing back 3rd! who knows, staying out of the debate tonight might somehow benefit Clegg.
But Mr Balls insisted the note admitting that Labour had blown the nation's finances should not be taken seriously. He told BBC West Midlands: 'Liam Byrne's note was a jokey note… of the course the money hadn't run out.'
But Mr Balls insisted the note admitting that Labour had blown the nation's finances should not be taken seriously. He told BBC West Midlands: 'Liam Byrne's note was a jokey note… of the course the money hadn't run out.'
That must be the archetype of "when you're explaining, you're losing".
I was in Cheshire Oaks yesterday and was amazed at the large number of children out shopping with their parents. I checked why with a shop assistant who said that they were still on holiday. This somewhat surprised me as all the schools in Wales are back after the Easter holiday. The polls may see an effect from next week when everyone's back to normal
Since the Day the Polls Turned, there have been twelve polls. Six Yougov, one each from Populus, ICM, Ashcroft, MORI, TNS, and Opinium. A simple average gives Labour 34.1%, Conservative 34%, UKIP 12.3%.
I was in Cheshire Oaks yesterday and was amazed at the large number of children out shopping with their parents. I checked why with a shop assistant who said that they were still on holiday. This somewhat surprised me as all the schools in Wales are back after the Easter holiday. The polls may see an effect from next week when everyone's back to normal
I'm not sure we'll see much more movement until polling day now, if I'm honest. Perhaps a return to the polling the week before Easter, with the small Tory leads, if they're lucky in the final fortnight.
Comments
But Labour ?!
That could be the most incredible act of self harm for the Scottish Tories since forever.
Only 2km separates the two and only an ocean of politics stops them being directly linked as was first proposed. The sudden increase in viability of Manston by being close to a HS rail line sits at odds with UKIPs opportunistic 'anti' stance on HS2.
More child abuse allegations. Lord Janner hmmm sounds very Pakistani/Muslim name I guess it's just the PC brigade gone mad....
If you believe the tactical malarkey is going to take place in Scotland then it is the incumbents who will benefit.
7-1 Lib Dems Edinburgh West is a big price.
You can even combine it with the 8-11 on the SNP there.
I just can't see the Conservatives or Labour in particular winning here.
The 11-4 on Labour is the most wrong price.
I'm already in on this seat on both SNP and Lib Dems.
16-1 Tories isn't the worst 16-1 ever but not for me.
DYOR.
Yup definitely
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greville_Janner,_Baron_Janner_of_Braunstone
I was once polled on behalf of the Lib Dems back in the early 2000's - I think prior to the 2001 election. At one point the pollster asked me a question along the lines of "The Lib Dems want to give free puppies to everyone would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them"
I said "Less likely". The pollster paused for half a beat and then half-chuckled and ask why and I said "They promised free university education in Scotland and they abandoned that to go into coalition so I don't believe them on this poliocy now"
The whole poll was like that, basically repeatedly asking given how awesome the Lib Dems were whether I would vote for them.
It is not difficult to see the thinking behind the purchase given the subsequent application for redevelopment by the owners after it was shut down.
Latest research: http://t.co/mgbzvERGhV http://t.co/cL5cJyzQSC
In theory the LDs have been coalition partners and there is some logic in the two 'helping each other out' in some seats. But helping Labour out of the mess they created seems more than silly.
As it is the LDs have gone out of their way to rubbish Tories all through the coalition and I hardly see them stopping now, so if there ever was any logic to politics then tories should just vote tory. Anyone interested in the centre right in Scotland has no one else to vote for.
One of the biggest arguments against HS2 in my mind is that it is not part of a properly planned network: Crossrail, HS1, HS2, HS3, Crossrail 2, EGIP and its successors, along with the various rail electrification schemes, are all kept rather separate. In the long run this ends up being rather expensive.
It would be lovely if we could have a fully joined-up transport plan in the UK. Sadly that is well beyond us. And not just in transport.
As for HS2: the thing that will kill it are the Euston plans. Euston requires vast amounts of money thrown at it to do properly, and I'm afraid that cost savings will stop it being done properly. ALthough I've not been keeping current with the latest news for time reasons.
And if that happens, Euston will just be redeveloped anyway for conventional services, as it is vastly in need of redevelopment. ;-)
I'm sure that the Tories would rather see a LibDem MP than an SNP MP as it makes a 2nd Con-LD coalition more likely.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/the-conservative-battleground-in-april.html
The disgrace in rotherham politically was not the abuse but the reason it was covered up. We have known for years that the rich and powerful get crimes and misdemeanours hushed up for them. Rotherham was the first real proof that political correctness hushed up crimes on the basis of race and religion (not forgetting poor Victoria Climbie)
Stodge's First Law states "it's all about power, stupid". If the electoral arithemetic offers him no other option in terms of staying in office as leader of a stable Government, David Cameron will be on the telephone to Nicola Sturgeon to offer a deal. Sturgeon won't put the phone down on him because she knows she will be in a position to get a whole lot more than she would complaining from the Opposition benches.
You have to ignore election campaign rhetoric - like most of the bets struck on here and most of the polls we slavishly micro-analyse, they are meaningless. David Cameron and Nick Clegg tore lumps out of each other last time but less than 24 hours after the polls closed, Cameron was offering talks.
That's how politics works - Cameron and Sturgeon (or their negotiating terms) will get together and aim to thrash out a deal. My guess is such a deal is actually quite simple - in exchange for SNP support for primarily non-Scottish legislation (the WLQ be damned), the Conservatives will offer everything but independence. Sturgeon and the SNP will be provided carte blanche to run Scotland as they see fit while Sturgeon's troops will go through the Westminster lobbies to ensure Cameron can do the same in England and Wales (nationalist solidarity be damned likewise).
It won't be nice and some will equate it to Molotov-Ribbentrop in the summer of 1939 but it's all about power and practical politics.
"Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote."Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else.
"Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies.
I hope you didn't lodge it with Aviva.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/maxherve-george-the-man-fighting-a-merciless-legal-war-against-insurance-giant-aviva-10168427.html
89% of pensioners voting.
Potent mix
http://tinyurl.com/GettingTheKardashianVote
If they do a deal with the Conservatives, their fox is shot. If you think the swing to the SNP looks big at this election, wait for the swing to Labour in Holyrood 2016.
Fwiw I may vote either Conservative or UKIP. The personal attacks on Miliband disgust me and I'm not in the slightest worried about a Labour Gov't. But there are parts of the Conservative manifesto I like.
Sturgeon will not do a deal with Dave, not a chance. Zero, zip, zilch. She won't even abstain - I have Labour down as more likely to deal with Dave quite honestly. There is no Northern Ireland situation here and in the event of World War 3 we get a grand coalition. The chance of an SNP-Conservative zero is one of the biggest zero chances we have at this election.
Tories are 1%-1.5% ahead
Their maximum upside between now and polling, not withstanding and unknown events between now and then, is no more than 2% mainly via squeezing UKIP. I know not all UKIP voters are ex tory - but the narrative of the campaigns leads me to believe that these are the most likely switchers - ergo, I don't see many Labour /UKIP switchers coming back home.
The swing whatever it ends up being will not be uniform. I think we will see some odd LAB-CON swings in some areas even in the likely event that this is against the national average.
Looking at the CON targets on UK Polling Report, I do not see many (if any) potential gains for CON from LAB.
Conclusion: - CON will get most seats but not enough to enter negotiations with LD/DUP
LAB may need support from both SNP and LD to form government.
I found the numerous luvvie endorsements and shrillness about the Tories absolutely hilarious.
Is this a fact, a rule of thumb or nonsense?
" 50m ago10:19
Labour has responded to the Telegraph’s attack on the party’s election guru David Axelrod, who the paper says pays no tax on his “reported £300,000 earnings” in Britain.
However, Labour has said Axelrod, who founded AKPD Media, pays no tax in the UK because he does not live or work here. A party spokesman told the Press Association:
David Axelrod lives in the US, works in the US and pays tax in the US. We pay AKPD Media in the US in US dollars. There is no tax due in the UK.
As Peter said earlier, Telegraph’s attack seems pure tit-for-tat for similar allegations about the Tories’ strategist, Lynton Crosby.
"
Lab 35 (+1) Con 33 (nc) UKIP 10 (-3) Greens in fourth, LDs in 5th place
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband-seen-as-capable-leader-by-just-one-third-of-the-public-poll-reveals-10180893.html
Part 4.
Mr Farage has suffered another dip in his ratings, which are now almost as bad as Nick Clegg’s. Some 56 per cent are dissatisfied with him, which is his highest yet."
My - who could have predicted that ?
It depends on how many pensioners forgot they now had to register, along with "why they came into the kitchen in the first place...or which kitchen?
You've got more money than sense if you're laying Lab Maj at 60-1 I reckon.
Kerching
"Labour has responded to the Telegraph’s attack on the party’s election guru David Axelrod, who the paper says pays no tax on his “reported £300,000 earnings” in Britain."
They shouldn't even bother. I work in the US a lot. I pay English tax on my earnings there. How could it be any other way? The problem is ignorant people like Max on here last night were calling him a non dom!
Another pollster concludes there is all to play for
Keep watching our programmes and reading our newspapers everybody!
We also all know what that means.
"Regions which saw the biggest fall in registered voters tended to be in the north of the UK. The north east of England fell by 3.5 per cent.
Constituencies with the biggest fall have a strong university presence. The largest drop was in Cardiff Central which saw an 18.3 per cent drop, followed by Liverpool Riverside, Newcastle upon Tyne East, Nottingham South and Ceredigion.
An analysis by the FT of the initial figures released earlier this year found that Labour-held marginals had seen a bigger decline in the number of registered voters than Conservative held marginals."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa230076-e419-11e4-9039-00144feab7de.html
The Telegraph story is a bit thin, but then the Labour Party have spouted absolutely nonsense when it comes to tax efficiency, lumping perfectly sensible and reasonable approaches in with people on the massive dodge.
Don't forget, an awful lot of ex-Tory voters must currently be voting SNP, because there simply are not enough ex-Labour (by which I mean Old Labour - some may have come via New Labour) voters to deliver these kind of numbers for them. I don't suppose they'd be too appalled in practice by a Tory government in England.
Only two parties will be major parties in 2020 at this rate.
More evidence that a blue 35 may be worth more than a red 35.
Jan 11%, Feb 9%, March 13%, April 10%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
I'd expect SNP MPs to try and work for maximum Scottish advantage if that is the case.
Mind you - this is potentially ruinous for Aviva - it makes the stupidity of fixed returns for Equitable life customers look like the essence of prudence.
Yep. you pays yer money and you takes yer chance.
For me, the analysis of the poster chestnut, showing how the numbers are arrived at, is very instructive.
Now that you have to make the effort to register, it's less likely that such duplication will happen. I doubt if it will cost Williams Ceredigion now he's the incumbent, but it might lead to a few shocks elsewhere - Oxford East might have a big cut in its Labour vote, for example.
That's roughly all any leader needs to get elected. 40% and your talking a landslide.
If only Scotland's government was more business friendly..
A combined share of 43% for the Conservatives and UKIP is very low; a combined vote share of 43% for Labour and the Greens is very high.