politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The leading academic forecasters gather for the biggest ev
Comments
-
LOLPulpstar said:
My one worry with the exit poll is that Scottish voters may not admit to voting for Jim Netenyahu Murphy !JackW said:
Unless there is some consistency in the early declarations the big driver will be the exit poll especially as the 2010 offering showed a level of accuracy that many thought was a rip off from my ARSE.peter_from_putney said:
Well yes, a trading bet on 301-325 should produce a healthy profit if Labour were indeed seen to be heading for around the 300 seat mark. At some stage it should prove possible to lay this off at around even money or indeed less, bearing in mind that the Red Team invariably builds a large initial lead from the early declaring city constituencies before being pegged back.JackW said:@peter_from_putney
Unless you are value trading in the market then betting on Labour and Ed Miliband at that seat level shows a level of faith that hasn't been seen since "Stuart Truth" was prognosticating on PB over two years back.
That ended well.
I couldn't possibly comment.
0 -
On topic:
I've used Hanretty, Fisher, Baxter and Curtice to guide betting strategy.
Haven't seen the models of the other 3.0 -
Does that amount to an admission that Labour did at some stage actually have such plans?peter_from_putney said:
Um, right...Scott_P said:SMukesh said:It's a political message not about his character.
Labour has scrapped all plans to run billboard posters of David Cameron during the general election campaign in what it says it is a deliberate attempt to avoid “negative personalised adverts” and raise the tone of debate.
I would be very surprised if they hadn't planned for most alternatives and anticipated attacks, and would be amazed if the Conservative and LibDems hadn't got something similar hidden away in their respective arsenals.
But I suspect that the internal polls that the Labour party are getting may be substantially different from the results being published and the plans are not required.0 -
David, I beg to differ. In 1979 Margaret Thatcher took on a minority Labour government. In 1997 Tony Blair took on a minority Conservative government. In 2010 David Cameron took on a Labour government with a retiring majority of over 50 seats. Had Cameron been taking on a minority Brown government there can be little doubt he would have secured an overall majority.DavidL said:Very positive and upbeat PPB from the Tories: https://www.conservatives.com/ourcountry
They have definitely got the balance much better in this election than they did in 2010. Unfortunately it was in 2010 that a majority was there for the taking.0 -
@AlanRoden: Survation poll for LibDems in @joswinson's East Dunbartonshire seat : LD 34.5%; SNP 32.1%; Lab 16.2%; Con 13.1%. More in today's Mail.
@AlanRoden: East Dunbartonshire poll shows evidence of tactical voting: Quarter who voted Con in 2010 plan to vote LibDem, along with 16% who voted Lab.0 -
Paranoid !chestnut said:Labour 2015:2010 vote ratio - Yougov
114.4 (pre-method change) implied vote= 33.98% (last six samples)
120.2 (post-method change) implied vote= 35.69%
Conservative 2015:2010 vote ratio - Yougov
94.5 (pre-method change) implied vote = 34.93% (last six samples)
89.6 (post-method change) implied vote = 33.09%0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11540433/David-Cameron-SNP-will-be-chain-to-Labours-wrecking-ball-if-Ed-Miliband-wins.htmlSMukesh said:
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article4413008.eceScott_P said:The big event of the day could be very entertaining indeed
Ed Miliband will use tonight’s opposition leaders’ debate to launch a “forensic” attack on Nicola Sturgeon’s policies and her record in government, senior Labour sources have revealed.
That sounds great, but he might have a slight problem...new analysis disclosed that Ed Miliband voted in the same way as SNP MPs more than 90 per cent of the time in the last five years, including 27 out of 28 votes on welfare and 62 out of 65 votes on the economy.
Twa cheeks...
Isn't Nicola Sturgeon already backing down wanting Barnett formula rather than financial independence?
Bollox0 -
Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.0 -
"The nationalist voters are coming out to the polls in droves !"0
-
OT Following our recent discussion about salvage - thought some PBers would like this
A hoard of silver coins worth £34million that was sunk by the Nazis on board a steamship has been salvaged by a British-led team at a record depth of 5,150m (17,000ft).
The SS City of Cairo was travelling from Bombay to England in 1942 when it was torpedoed by a U-boat 480 miles south of St Helena, taking 100 tons of rupees with it to the bottom of the ocean.
It was long assumed that the vessel's cargo, belonging to the UK Treasury, would be lost forever such was the complexity of the task facing salvage experts.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3039674/34million-hoard-silver-coins-sent-bottom-sea-Nazis-discovered-aboard-sunken-steamboat-record-depth-17-000ft-British-treasure-hunters.html#ixzz3XSFEhg1e
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook0 -
Jack if Mrs W will release you from tea and toast duties and admiring the latest shoe catalogues, please convey to my noble cousin the Viscount that I am very unimpressed that I didn't receive a LibDem communication yesterday.
In C,S and ER it remains 10 LibDem, 2 Tory, 0 SNP and Labour communications. The yellow inverted ribbon posters are springing up on lamp posts all over the area. I expect to see Jamie Stone shuffling up lampposts with his Winning Here orange diamonds any day now.0 -
Zodiac Eclipse: Episode 4 is up here:
http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-negotiation/
List of all episodes out now is here, the oldest at the bottom: http://www.kraxon.com/category/zodiac-eclipse/0 -
Eh? The 1992-97 govt of Major wasn't a minority. It was just undermined by the 'bastards' and felt like itEasterross said:
David, I beg to differ. In 1979 Margaret Thatcher took on a minority Labour government. In 1997 Tony Blair took on a minority Conservative government. In 2010 David Cameron took on a Labour government with a retiring majority of over 50 seats. Had Cameron been taking on a minority Brown government there can be little doubt he would have secured an overall majority.DavidL said:Very positive and upbeat PPB from the Tories: https://www.conservatives.com/ourcountry
They have definitely got the balance much better in this election than they did in 2010. Unfortunately it was in 2010 that a majority was there for the taking.0 -
By the end it was a minority government.Monksfield said:
Eh? The 1992-97 govt of Major wasn't a minority. It was just undermined by the 'bastards'Easterross said:
David, I beg to differ. In 1979 Margaret Thatcher took on a minority Labour government. In 1997 Tony Blair took on a minority Conservative government. In 2010 David Cameron took on a Labour government with a retiring majority of over 50 seats. Had Cameron been taking on a minority Brown government there can be little doubt he would have secured an overall majority.DavidL said:Very positive and upbeat PPB from the Tories: https://www.conservatives.com/ourcountry
They have definitely got the balance much better in this election than they did in 2010. Unfortunately it was in 2010 that a majority was there for the taking.0 -
At this stage, I think the Con-UKIP floating voters are the key to the election result. The Conservatives have to keep hammering away at the message Vote UKIP get Labour/SNP and keep people like Bond James Bond under lock and key.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - that sounds reasonable.Sean_F said:
My guess is that internet panels tend to pick up the most politically committed people, which is why they tend to have high UKIP scores.SouthamObserver said:
This seems to demonstrate that:Smarmeron said:@SouthamObserver
Are you sure UKIP's voters are mainly elderly, as opposed to say middle aged?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/laurence-stellings/ukip-poll-voters_b_6631026.html
In fact, the big UKIP demographics are the ones generally that are unlikely to have everyday internet access. So, I am not sure why phone pollsters would find more elderly Tory voters, but fewer elderly UKIP ones.
Generally, the Labour online and telephone poll scores are pretty much the same. The big variances seem to be the UKIP and Tory scores. That's one of the reasons I see a big Tory seat lead. When push comes to shove a lot of UKIP-inclined voters are going to go for the Tories. It could be that ICM has found them further down the line to making that final decision. On a really bad night for Labour, there could also be Tory tactical voting for UKIP and the LDs, which would see Labour come in much lower than 250 seats - especially if it is an almost total wipe-out in Scotland.
0 -
I wonder if Yougov is full of politically committed people or full of people that want 150 quid a year?
If it was the former I'd expect the 20 poll moving average graph to be a lot more static than it is0 -
I forgot to mention there is a Survation poll (yes I know its them) in the Scottish Daily Mail today which makes good reading for Jo Swinson: This is one seat where Tories might substantially vote LibDem to keep out the enemy.
Alan Roden @AlanRoden
Survation poll for LibDems in @joswinson's East Dunbartonshire seat : LD 34.5%; SNP 32.1%; Lab 16.2%; Con 13.1%. More in today's Mail.0 -
More from Wales - Labour's fiefdom.
Carwyn Jones has defended his father's decision to have private health treatment, despite his own stance against the privatisation of the NHS.
The First Minister said his dad Caron's decision over his hip operation was "a matter of convenience".
Caron Wyn Jones told the Daily Mail newspaper he had private treatment against his son's wishes because he was going to Italy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-32274495
Tax rises will mean £375m extra a year for the Welsh government if Labour wins May's election, the party will say as it launches its Welsh manifesto.
Labour would bring back the 50p tax on incomes above £150,000 and introduce a "mansion tax" on homes worth over £2m.
But Plaid Cymru will challenge Labour politicians to drop what it calls their "commitment to Tory cuts".
Meanwhile, the Conservatives will say housing association tenants should gain the right to buy their homes in Wales.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-wales-323227920 -
We need to know if this is along the lines of a proper poll or the WAK/Hornsey "polls" thoughEasterross said:I forgot to mention there is a Survation poll (yes I know its them) in the Scottish Daily Mail today which makes good reading for Jo Swinson: This is one seat where Tories might substantially vote LibDem to keep out the enemy.
Alan Roden @AlanRoden
Survation poll for LibDems in @joswinson's East Dunbartonshire seat : LD 34.5%; SNP 32.1%; Lab 16.2%; Con 13.1%. More in today's Mail.0 -
Most remiss of Team Thurso not to be engaging you on a daily basis with promises of a fine beard for all male electors .... and the odd woman too !!Easterross said:Jack if Mrs W will release you from tea and toast duties and admiring the latest shoe catalogues, please convey to my noble cousin the Viscount that I am very unimpressed that I didn't receive a LibDem communication yesterday.
In C,S and ER it remains 10 LibDem, 2 Tory, 0 SNP and Labour communications. The yellow inverted ribbon posters are springing up on lamp posts all over the area. I expect to see Jamie Stone shuffling up lampposts with his Winning Here orange diamonds any day now.
I shall pass on your understandable concerns. We wouldn't want the good Viscount to lose by one vote for want of not pandering to the concerns of the most important elector in Ross-shire.
0 -
Looks like you are wobbling on a Thursday !Sean_F said:
At this stage, I think the Con-UKIP floating voters are the key to the election result. The Conservatives have to keep hammering away at the message Vote UKIP get Labour/SNP and keep people like Bond James Bond under lock and key.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - that sounds reasonable.Sean_F said:
My guess is that internet panels tend to pick up the most politically committed people, which is why they tend to have high UKIP scores.SouthamObserver said:
This seems to demonstrate that:Smarmeron said:@SouthamObserver
Are you sure UKIP's voters are mainly elderly, as opposed to say middle aged?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/laurence-stellings/ukip-poll-voters_b_6631026.html
In fact, the big UKIP demographics are the ones generally that are unlikely to have everyday internet access. So, I am not sure why phone pollsters would find more elderly Tory voters, but fewer elderly UKIP ones.
Generally, the Labour online and telephone poll scores are pretty much the same. The big variances seem to be the UKIP and Tory scores. That's one of the reasons I see a big Tory seat lead. When push comes to shove a lot of UKIP-inclined voters are going to go for the Tories. It could be that ICM has found them further down the line to making that final decision. On a really bad night for Labour, there could also be Tory tactical voting for UKIP and the LDs, which would see Labour come in much lower than 250 seats - especially if it is an almost total wipe-out in Scotland.0 -
Online polling
Wales and the SW - Labour share (last three samples of each)
Populus 34%
Comres 34%
4.3m voters last time = 1.46m Labour.
Wales - online and phone polls tell us that Lab are on 40% of 1.5m voters = 600,000 voters.
Therefore, Labour must have 860,000 voters in the SW out of 2.8m voters = 30.7% regional vote share based on online panels. In 2010, they got 15.4%. At the Euros they got 13.8%.0 -
Surby dear chap, you really need to stop filling your mouth with sour plumes. Some of us have been involved in politics for decades, in my case 1970 when I had the pleasure of helping Lord Strathclyde's father knock six bells out of that great socialist Vince Cable who was his Labour opponent.surbiton said:
Yeah, you teach them sitting in your Scottish hideout ! A whole industry are just a bunch of fools compared to an almost extinct specie in Scotland.Easterross said:I forgot to add that something which has always concerned me about pollsters is they don't ask as the first question: are you registered to vote? They just assume people are.
I have never rated John Curtice who always begins anything from a pro SLAB standpoint. In over 30 years I cannot recollect hearing Curtice ever make a pro-Tory comment. I like Stephen Fisher and quite like Rallings and Thrasher.
0 -
Easteross, I've make C,S&ER my "surprise" Scottish LibDem hold - do you think that's plausible? And is the good Viscount generally liked?Easterross said:Jack if Mrs W will release you from tea and toast duties and admiring the latest shoe catalogues, please convey to my noble cousin the Viscount that I am very unimpressed that I didn't receive a LibDem communication yesterday.
In C,S and ER it remains 10 LibDem, 2 Tory, 0 SNP and Labour communications. The yellow inverted ribbon posters are springing up on lamp posts all over the area. I expect to see Jamie Stone shuffling up lampposts with his Winning Here orange diamonds any day now.0 -
False dichotomy. Most people who fill in the YouGov political polls are likely to be both.asjohnstone said:I wonder if Yougov is full of politically committed people or full of people that want 150 quid a year?
If it was the former I'd expect the 20 poll moving average graph to be a lot more static than it is0 -
I found him a bit awkward and terse when I met him at the polling forecast day I went to back in February. He was answering other pollsters questions for them, before they had a chance to answer.Easterross said:
Surby dear chap, you really need to stop filling your mouth with sour plumes. Some of us have been involved in politics for decades, in my case 1970 when I had the pleasure of helping Lord Strathclyde's father knock six bells out of that great socialist Vince Cable who was his Labour opponent.surbiton said:
Yeah, you teach them sitting in your Scottish hideout ! A whole industry are just a bunch of fools compared to an almost extinct specie in Scotland.Easterross said:I forgot to add that something which has always concerned me about pollsters is they don't ask as the first question: are you registered to vote? They just assume people are.
I have never rated John Curtice who always begins anything from a pro SLAB standpoint. In over 30 years I cannot recollect hearing Curtice ever make a pro-Tory comment. I like Stephen Fisher and quite like Rallings and Thrasher.
So, wasn't bowled over. But, then again, he is an academic.0 -
Rubbish.SouthamObserver said:
On that basis any comment about anyone is a personal comment.Scott_P said:
The tag line of the advert is "David Cameron is too scared to debate his record"isam said:Pointing out the record of a party in govt isn't negative personal campaigning
That is negative personal campaigning
Do you understand the difference?
The comment is negative, and is personally directed at Cameron.
Still, I wouldn't expect someone who supports the party of McBride to understand the difference. Especially someone who was so shocked by it that he said he would not vote Labour that contained Ed Balls ...
0 -
Did Curtice predict this SNP surge back in 2013 or in 2014 before the referendum?Easterross said:
I have never rated John Curtice who always begins anything from a pro SLAB standpoint. In over 30 years I cannot recollect hearing Curtice ever make a pro-Tory comment. I like Stephen Fisher and quite like Rallings and Thrasher.surbiton said:
Yeah, you teach them sitting in your Scottish hideout ! A whole industry are just a bunch of fools compared to an almost extinct specie in Scotland.Easterross said:I forgot to add that something which has always concerned me about pollsters is they don't ask as the first question: are you registered to vote? They just assume people are.
0 -
@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA0
-
I agree with all of that. But it won't work in London. It's the Northern hypermarginals that are crucial, particularly in Lancashire and Yorkshire.Sean_F said:
At this stage, I think the Con-UKIP floating voters are the key to the election result. The Conservatives have to keep hammering away at the message Vote UKIP get Labour/SNP and keep people like Bond James Bond under lock and key.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - that sounds reasonable.Sean_F said:
My guess is that internet panels tend to pick up the most politically committed people, which is why they tend to have high UKIP scores.SouthamObserver said:
This seems to demonstrate that:Smarmeron said:@SouthamObserver
Are you sure UKIP's voters are mainly elderly, as opposed to say middle aged?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/laurence-stellings/ukip-poll-voters_b_6631026.html
In fact, the big UKIP demographics are the ones generally that are unlikely to have everyday internet access. So, I am not sure why phone pollsters would find more elderly Tory voters, but fewer elderly UKIP ones.
Generally, the Labour online and telephone poll scores are pretty much the same. The big variances seem to be the UKIP and Tory scores. That's one of the reasons I see a big Tory seat lead. When push comes to shove a lot of UKIP-inclined voters are going to go for the Tories. It could be that ICM has found them further down the line to making that final decision. On a really bad night for Labour, there could also be Tory tactical voting for UKIP and the LDs, which would see Labour come in much lower than 250 seats - especially if it is an almost total wipe-out in Scotland.
The Tories simply must hang on to them.0 -
Four points about this poll.Pulpstar said:
We need to know if this is along the lines of a proper poll or the WAK/Hornsey "polls" thoughEasterross said:I forgot to mention there is a Survation poll (yes I know its them) in the Scottish Daily Mail today which makes good reading for Jo Swinson: This is one seat where Tories might substantially vote LibDem to keep out the enemy.
Alan Roden @AlanRoden
Survation poll for LibDems in @joswinson's East Dunbartonshire seat : LD 34.5%; SNP 32.1%; Lab 16.2%; Con 13.1%. More in today's Mail.
1. It's Survation .... Hhmmm
2. Small sample size ..... Hhmmm
3. The question design .... Clearly the shape is to lean to the LibDems but this may be an accurate attempt to reflect the nature of incumbency in the seat .... Hhmmm
4. One wonders whether the odd bar chart might be in the offing on the basis of the poll .... Hhmmm
0 -
I get confused by the alphabet soup of Party names in NI - which one supported the Tories when it became a minority one? Do they have many MPs left?antifrank said:
By the end it was a minority government.Monksfield said:
Eh? The 1992-97 govt of Major wasn't a minority. It was just undermined by the 'bastards'Easterross said:
David, I beg to differ. In 1979 Margaret Thatcher took on a minority Labour government. In 1997 Tony Blair took on a minority Conservative government. In 2010 David Cameron took on a Labour government with a retiring majority of over 50 seats. Had Cameron been taking on a minority Brown government there can be little doubt he would have secured an overall majority.DavidL said:Very positive and upbeat PPB from the Tories: https://www.conservatives.com/ourcountry
They have definitely got the balance much better in this election than they did in 2010. Unfortunately it was in 2010 that a majority was there for the taking.0 -
Plato
"I really rather liked it - great soundtrack and imagery. Very upbeat."
I thought you had a basic interest in film? It was probably the worst photographed PPB I've seen and certainly the most unoriginal.
As for the the 'great soundtrack' try Pampers c1990.
3/10
0 -
Re 3: I have repeatedly forecast that the South West would be a bloodbath for the LibDems. I doubt they'll hold more than two seats. I also expect the golden triangle in SW London to see three yellow losses.antifrank said:Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.
But I think the LibDems are going to hold up surprisingly well where Labour is the challenger. Despite Ally_Pally_Rob's insistence on a certain Labour victory in H&WG, I know several tribal Labour voters who are are going to vote Lynne Featherstone, and I also think that the Highgate side of the constituency will tactically vote Lynne. Most of the bookies are at about 2/1 for the LibDems, and that feels about right. My confidence in David Ward is undiminished, and I think he'll (55-60% probability) hold on in Bradford. And Huppert should hold on in Cambridge.
Scotland could also see three LibDem holds: O&S, CS&ER and (if the latest poll is correct) Dumbartonshire.
I'd put the LibDems on about 18 to 20 seats post the election, losing 6 or 7 to Labour, 6 or 7 to UKIP, and 20 to 25 to the Conservatives.0 -
And lo we see again the curse of political correctness
Any comment now associating someone's name with their record in office is 'a negative personal attack' the same as tweeting a picture of a bad hair day or pulling an awkward face
The ability to distinguish between the two is lost by the use of beauracratic overbearing catch all phrases0 -
The headline is totally crass - but the Tim Monty piece in the Times is a corker along the soft Kipper appeal front.Sean_F said:
At this stage, I think the Con-UKIP floating voters are the key to the election result. The Conservatives have to keep hammering away at the message Vote UKIP get Labour/SNP and keep people like Bond James Bond under lock and key.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - that sounds reasonable.Sean_F said:
My guess is that internet panels tend to pick up the most politically committed people, which is why they tend to have high UKIP scores.SouthamObserver said:
This seems to demonstrate that:Smarmeron said:@SouthamObserver
Are you sure UKIP's voters are mainly elderly, as opposed to say middle aged?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/laurence-stellings/ukip-poll-voters_b_6631026.html
In fact, the big UKIP demographics are the ones generally that are unlikely to have everyday internet access. So, I am not sure why phone pollsters would find more elderly Tory voters, but fewer elderly UKIP ones.
Generally, the Labour online and telephone poll scores are pretty much the same. The big variances seem to be the UKIP and Tory scores. That's one of the reasons I see a big Tory seat lead. When push comes to shove a lot of UKIP-inclined voters are going to go for the Tories. It could be that ICM has found them further down the line to making that final decision. On a really bad night for Labour, there could also be Tory tactical voting for UKIP and the LDs, which would see Labour come in much lower than 250 seats - especially if it is an almost total wipe-out in Scotland.0 -
It is always assumed that the DUP would support the Tories. Will the Tories agree to the Bedroom tax be removed, at least, in NI. That is one of their major demands. They have to show their working class electorate that they got something in the bargain.Plato said:I get confused by the alphabet soup of Party names in NI - which one supported the Tories when it became a minority one? Do they have many MPs left?
antifrank said:
By the end it was a minority government.Monksfield said:
Eh? The 1992-97 govt of Major wasn't a minority. It was just undermined by the 'bastards'Easterross said:
David, I beg to differ. In 1979 Margaret Thatcher took on a minority Labour government. In 1997 Tony Blair took on a minority Conservative government. In 2010 David Cameron took on a Labour government with a retiring majority of over 50 seats. Had Cameron been taking on a minority Brown government there can be little doubt he would have secured an overall majority.DavidL said:Very positive and upbeat PPB from the Tories: https://www.conservatives.com/ourcountry
They have definitely got the balance much better in this election than they did in 2010. Unfortunately it was in 2010 that a majority was there for the taking.0 -
The order to print the bar chart was placed before the "poll" came out !JackW said:
Four points about this poll.Pulpstar said:
We need to know if this is along the lines of a proper poll or the WAK/Hornsey "polls" thoughEasterross said:I forgot to mention there is a Survation poll (yes I know its them) in the Scottish Daily Mail today which makes good reading for Jo Swinson: This is one seat where Tories might substantially vote LibDem to keep out the enemy.
Alan Roden @AlanRoden
Survation poll for LibDems in @joswinson's East Dunbartonshire seat : LD 34.5%; SNP 32.1%; Lab 16.2%; Con 13.1%. More in today's Mail.
1. It's Survation .... Hhmmm
2. Small sample size ..... Hhmmm
3. The question design .... Clearly the shape is to lean to the LibDems but this may be an accurate attempt to reflect the nature of incumbency in the seat .... Hhmmm
4. One wonders whether the odd bar chart might be in the offing on the basis of the poll .... Hhmmm0 -
Mr. Royale, or gain them, such as in Morley & Outwood
0 -
-
The Tory removing the deficit vs Labour removing the deficit is entertaining. Same policy - two quite different scores. Nice Labour Cuts...Scott_P said:
@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA
0 -
Robert.rcs1000 said:
I'd put the LibDems on about 18 to 20 seats post the election, losing 6 or 7 to Labour, 6 or 7 to UKIP, and 20 to 25 to the Conservatives.antifrank said:Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.
LibDem lose 6-7 to UKIP - Utter cobblers.
Losses aren't in the abstract. Put some faces to those UKIP gains.
0 -
Those questions at the start of another marketing poll probably don't go into the main VI polls but are used to update their NowCast/Forecast constituency modelsEasterross said:Firstly I declare an interest as a member of the YouGov panel. YouGov does indeed poll the same small % of the electorate over and over again. I have completed no fewer than 3 polls this week which included voting intention questions. Most of the surveys are frankly just turgid and repetitive. I only do them because over the course of a year I get £100-150 in payments from YouGov.
0 -
Sorry, I meant SNP!JackW said:
Robert.rcs1000 said:
I'd put the LibDems on about 18 to 20 seats post the election, losing 6 or 7 to Labour, 6 or 7 to UKIP, and 20 to 25 to the Conservatives.antifrank said:Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.
LibDem lose 6-7 to UKIP - Utter cobblers.
Losses aren't in the abstract. Put some faces to those UKIP gains.0 -
'scared' is a word with negative connotations (although whether it should is a different matter - there are times when being scared can actually be the wisest course).
There are plenty of other less-loaded words that could have been used: for instance 'unwilling'.
And the comment is directed directly at Cameron.
It's hardly rocket science.0 -
4th factor,the extent of the Green vote in Con-Lab marginals.antifrank said:Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.
0 -
Ok ... your cobblers may remain intact.rcs1000 said:
Sorry, I meant SNP!JackW said:
Robert.rcs1000 said:
I'd put the LibDems on about 18 to 20 seats post the election, losing 6 or 7 to Labour, 6 or 7 to UKIP, and 20 to 25 to the Conservatives.antifrank said:Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.
LibDem lose 6-7 to UKIP - Utter cobblers.
Losses aren't in the abstract. Put some faces to those UKIP gains.
However 20-25 losses to Con is also very high. Which seats are you predicting the yellows to lose to the blues.
0 -
Scots P Easteross
Credibility on this site depends on how you present info . The Swinson poll turns out to be a Lib Dem designed question poll. That is info which you should have presented. Not to do so leaves you with about the same credibility as the Fib Dems.
0 -
And lo we see again the curse of political correctness
Any comment now associating someone's name with their record in office is 'a negative personal attack' the same as tweeting a picture of a bad hair day or pulling an awkward face
The ability to distinguish between the two is lost by the use of beauracratic overbearing catch all phrases0 -
May have already been posted - day rueing ahead
http://metro.co.uk/2015/04/14/is-this-the-best-private-eye-celebrity-lookalike-ever-5149633/0 -
Sounds plausile. We are doing a forest/trees thing when we obsess about phone vs internet polls. If we ONLY looked at phone polls, we'd see that (a) things are generlaly stable (ICM latest excepted) and (b) they're stable at a level that makes Ed PM.asjohnstone said:For sure, there are a lot of assumptions in the YG polling, but what they do have is a large number of polls so we get a lot of data points and there has been a lot of movement in it over the last 5 years. i don't think we can discount it, it's within the same broad range as the other polls. The online vs phone gap isn't all that much.
My personal view is that we have a small tory lead of around 0.5% - 1% and that will be reflected on the day, what we don't have is momentum. In 21 days time it'll be over, I don't see any game changers. The collapse of the labour vote in Scotland is hiding it's strength in England. Whatever comes out of Scotland will be anti tory so it can be discounted.
In order to get a situation where Con + LD > Lab + SNP, I think we need a tory lead of ~5%. I can't see that happening at present, therefore Ed is PM.
Agreed.OldKingCole said:I just wonder, given the way FPTP works whether we will in fact return to a two party situation in England and Sctotland. Lab vs Con in England, SNP vs Lab in Scotland. Only in Wales will we still have a significant third party presence.
I've lost track, also of the possible Broxtowe meetup - where/when was it?peter_from_putney said:Just 3 weeks to go and no announcement as yet concerning any all-night PB election event at a suitable hostelry. Presumably this means that none is planned.
Caution: early results may be from Scptland, where events are, er, reportedly developing not altogether to Labour's advantage. If Labour is doing much better in England, that may only be clear in the wee hours. Broxtowe's result is expected 4am-5am.peter_from_putney said:
Well yes, a trading bet on 301-325 should produce a healthy profit if Labour were indeed seen to be heading for around the 300 seat mark. At some stage it should prove possible to lay this off at around even money or indeed less, bearing in mind that the Red Team invariably builds a large initial lead from the early declaring city constituencies before being pegged back.0 -
Perish the thought that SNP wallers wouldn't present the full picture of polling on PB or place their own spin on them. That never happened in the Indy Ref ....scotslass said:Scots P Easteross
Credibility on this site depends on how you present info . The Swinson poll turns out to be a Lib Dem designed question poll. That is info which you should have presented. Not to do so leaves you with about the same credibility as the Fib Dems.
Credibility and SNP commentators on PB is not a sentence that holds much substance.
0 -
“ ... keep people like Bond James Bond under lock and key.”
An interesting suggestion!
There are quite a number of activists who should be under lock and key for the good of their party.
That is why decapitation strategies rarely work. I expect both Nick Clegg and Jim Murphy to survive because -- for the average person -- the level of vitriolic hatred directed against them by opposition party activists is just off-putting.
0 -
Bath (p)JackW said:
Ok ... your cobblers may remain intact.rcs1000 said:
Sorry, I meant SNP!JackW said:
Robert.rcs1000 said:
I'd put the LibDems on about 18 to 20 seats post the election, losing 6 or 7 to Labour, 6 or 7 to UKIP, and 20 to 25 to the Conservatives.antifrank said:Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.
LibDem lose 6-7 to UKIP - Utter cobblers.
Losses aren't in the abstract. Put some faces to those UKIP gains.
However 20-25 losses to Con is also very high. Which seats are you predicting the yellows to lose to the blues.
Brecon & Radnorshire
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset Mid & Poole North
Eastbourne (p)
Eastleigh (p)
Edinburgh West (p)
Hazel Grove
Kingston & Surbiton
Lewes (p)
Portsmouth South
Somerset & Frome
St Austell & Nequay
St Ives
Sutton & Cheam
Taunton Deane
Torbay
Twickenham (p)
Wells
Yeovil (p)
Here you go. I'd expect the Libs to lose between two-thirds and three-quarters of this list, and I don't think any of them are safe. (The p's are the ones I suspect are most likely to be held.)0 -
EpicTGOHF said:
May have already been posted - day rueing ahead
http://metro.co.uk/2015/04/14/is-this-the-best-private-eye-celebrity-lookalike-ever-5149633/0 -
It may also be a self fulfilling prophecy: "Unionists of the world! Only Swinson can stop the SNP!"scotslass said:Scots P Easteross
Credibility on this site depends on how you present info . The Swinson poll turns out to be a Lib Dem designed question poll. That is info which you should have presented. Not to do so leaves you with about the same credibility as the Fib Dems.0 -
Do you have any particular reasons for the areas you forecast the LDs will do badly?rcs1000 said:
Re 3: I have repeatedly forecast that the South West would be a bloodbath for the LibDems. I doubt they'll hold more than two seats. I also expect the golden triangle in SW London to see three yellow losses.antifrank said:Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.
But I think the LibDems are going to hold up surprisingly well where Labour is the challenger. Despite Ally_Pally_Rob's insistence on a certain Labour victory in H&WG, I know several tribal Labour voters who are are going to vote Lynne Featherstone, and I also think that the Highgate side of the constituency will tactically vote Lynne. Most of the bookies are at about 2/1 for the LibDems, and that feels about right. My confidence in David Ward is undiminished, and I think he'll (55-60% probability) hold on in Bradford. And Huppert should hold on in Cambridge.
Scotland could also see three LibDem holds: O&S, CS&ER and (if the latest poll is correct) Dumbartonshire.
I'd put the LibDems on about 18 to 20 seats post the election, losing 6 or 7 to Labour, 6 or 7 to UKIP, and 20 to 25 to the Conservatives.0 -
Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"0
-
Any chance of shifting the Broxtowe meetup to the SaturdayNickPalmer said:
Sounds plausile. We are doing a forest/trees thing when we obsess about phone vs internet polls. If we ONLY looked at phone polls, we'd see that (a) things are generlaly stable (ICM latest excepted) and (b) they're stable at a level that makes Ed PM.asjohnstone said:For sure, there are a lot of assumptions in the YG polling, but what they do have is a large number of polls so we get a lot of data points and there has been a lot of movement in it over the last 5 years. i don't think we can discount it, it's within the same broad range as the other polls. The online vs phone gap isn't all that much.
My personal view is that we have a small tory lead of around 0.5% - 1% and that will be reflected on the day, what we don't have is momentum. In 21 days time it'll be over, I don't see any game changers. The collapse of the labour vote in Scotland is hiding it's strength in England. Whatever comes out of Scotland will be anti tory so it can be discounted.
In order to get a situation where Con + LD > Lab + SNP, I think we need a tory lead of ~5%. I can't see that happening at present, therefore Ed is PM.
Agreed.OldKingCole said:I just wonder, given the way FPTP works whether we will in fact return to a two party situation in England and Sctotland. Lab vs Con in England, SNP vs Lab in Scotland. Only in Wales will we still have a significant third party presence.
I've lost track, also of the possible Broxtowe meetup - where/when was it?peter_from_putney said:Just 3 weeks to go and no announcement as yet concerning any all-night PB election event at a suitable hostelry. Presumably this means that none is planned.
Caution: early results may be from Scptland, where events are, er, reportedly developing not altogether to Labour's advantage. If Labour is doing much better in England, that may only be clear in the wee hours. Broxtowe's result is expected 4am-5am.peter_from_putney said:
Well yes, a trading bet on 301-325 should produce a healthy profit if Labour were indeed seen to be heading for around the 300 seat mark. At some stage it should prove possible to lay this off at around even money or indeed less, bearing in mind that the Red Team invariably builds a large initial lead from the early declaring city constituencies before being pegged back.
- I'm booked for Friday ! 0 -
Off-topic:
I went through the main UK party manifestos last night to see what they said about rail in general, and HS2 in particular. This seems to be a reasonable summation:
Conservative:
In favour. Also want to progress HS3 and Crossrail, whatever they might be.
Labour:
Will continue with HS2, but will push to keep costs down. It is unspecified how.
Lib Dem:
In favour, as part of a high-speed route to Scotland (I think this is the first I have heard of this). They also want to look into having a cycle path alongside HS2. This might be difficult in the tunnels...
UKIP:
Not in favour. Although does not have other solutions to the capacity problems.
Green:
Will not support HS2. They do not have anything other than vague plans to solve the capacity problems.
It is interesting that the Conservative manifesto goes much further than any of the other parties in expanding capacity on the railway network. It goes to show that, as usual, the railways are better managed under the Conservatives than Labour ... ;-)0 -
Orwell didn't exaggerate when he invented the two minute hate.YBarddCwsc said:“ ... keep people like Bond James Bond under lock and key.”
An interesting suggestion!
There are quite a number of activists who should be under lock and key for the good of their party.
That is why decapitation strategies rarely work. I expect both Nick Clegg and Jim Murphy to survive because -- for the average person -- the level of vitriolic hatred directed against them by opposition party activists is just off-putting.0 -
I was shocked this morning - I have actually seen some campaigning going on! I even got to shake the hand of a candidate. As he is defending a 16,000 majority, I think he could have had a lie-in.0
-
0
-
Yes. I think it is in Lib-Con marginals where the Red Liberals - who feel particularly betrayed - will switch back to Labour.Garethofthevale said:
Do you have any particular reasons for the areas you forecast the LDs will do badly?rcs1000 said:
Re 3: I have repeatedly forecast that the South West would be a bloodbath for the LibDems. I doubt they'll hold more than two seats. I also expect the golden triangle in SW London to see three yellow losses.antifrank said:Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.
But I think the LibDems are going to hold up surprisingly well where Labour is the challenger. Despite Ally_Pally_Rob's insistence on a certain Labour victory in H&WG, I know several tribal Labour voters who are are going to vote Lynne Featherstone, and I also think that the Highgate side of the constituency will tactically vote Lynne. Most of the bookies are at about 2/1 for the LibDems, and that feels about right. My confidence in David Ward is undiminished, and I think he'll (55-60% probability) hold on in Bradford. And Huppert should hold on in Cambridge.
Scotland could also see three LibDem holds: O&S, CS&ER and (if the latest poll is correct) Dumbartonshire.
I'd put the LibDems on about 18 to 20 seats post the election, losing 6 or 7 to Labour, 6 or 7 to UKIP, and 20 to 25 to the Conservatives.
I think SW London, the SW of England and some of the rural and market towns of the SE are particularly vulnerable to this trend.
That being said, the LibDems seem to have moved from 7% in the polls to 9% so far in the campaign. If they can get to 11% (or even 12%), then they'll suddenly start holding a whole bunch of the those Lib-Con marginals.0 -
I'm surprised free schools are so unpopular. Right to buy for housing association tenants doesn't look like it's gone down initially as well as expected, possible resentment from those who won't or didn't benefit.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA
0 -
Brecon & Radnorshire is possible, but only if the Tories are performing right at the top end of expectation.
The Tories had their chance in 2001 when Richard Livesey retired. They blew it.
These rural Welsh seats rarely throw out sitting MPs (Lembit Opik is the exception that proves what you have to do to be dumped).
If the Tories get Brecon & Radnorshire, I’d expect their vote to be strong enough to take Gower as well.0 -
Nick, that's really not what the ComRes post on the issue showed. It showed (in the second figure) that in every month this year the phone polls have shown a better picture for the Tories than the month before.NickPalmer said:If we ONLY looked at phone polls, we'd see that (a) things are generlaly stable (ICM latest excepted) and (b) they're stable at a level that makes Ed PM.
I suppose the derivative might be fairly stable, I would have to check the exact figures.
Sure the phone polls don't provide a magic wand that mean that Labour are certainly dead and buried, but they are currently showing a different story to the online polls.
I'm preparing to look very silly on May 8th if it turns out that the online polls are closer to the result - but you have bigger things to worry about if the converse is true.0 -
Mr. Rentool, he wasn't called Nick Clegg, perchance?
0 -
In the past, when they are boring/no change, he maintains a respectful silence, when they are very interesting he lets us know beforehand.Smarmeron said:@TheScreamingEagles
Did you expect him to say "It isn't worth bothering about"?
He did the same with their Scotland poll post indyref.0 -
For B&R, I'd forecastYBarddCwsc said:Brecon & Radnorshire is possible, but only if the Tories are performing right at the top end of expectation.
The Tories had their chance in 2001 when Richard Livesey retired. They blew it.
These rural Welsh seats rarely throw out sitting MPs (Lembit Opik is the exception that proves what you have to do to be dumped).
If the Tories get Brecon & Radnorshire, I’d expect their vote to be strong enough to take Gower as well.
LD 32% -14%
Con 35% - 2%
Lab, UKIP, Greens the benificiaries
It's the kind of seat which the LDs hold 11-12% of the national vote share and lose on 9-10%.0 -
You really are down on the LibDems.rcs1000 said:
Bath (p)JackW said:
Ok ... your cobblers may remain intact.rcs1000 said:
Sorry, I meant SNP!JackW said:
Robert.rcs1000 said:
I'd put the LibDems on about 18 to 20 seats post the election, losing 6 or 7 to Labour, 6 or 7 to UKIP, and 20 to 25 to the Conservatives.antifrank said:Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.
LibDem lose 6-7 to UKIP - Utter cobblers.
Losses aren't in the abstract. Put some faces to those UKIP gains.
However 20-25 losses to Con is also very high. Which seats are you predicting the yellows to lose to the blues.
Brecon & Radnorshire
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset Mid & Poole North
Eastbourne (p)
Eastleigh (p)
Edinburgh West (p)
Hazel Grove
Kingston & Surbiton
Lewes (p)
Portsmouth South
Somerset & Frome
St Austell & Nequay
St Ives
Sutton & Cheam
Taunton Deane
Torbay
Twickenham (p)
Wells
Yeovil (p)
Here you go. I'd expect the Libs to lose between two-thirds and three-quarters of this list, and I don't think any of them are safe. (The p's are the ones I suspect are most likely to be held.)
Did OGH make you recite "Winning Here" songs as a child and wear sandals until you went to University ??
Of the seats you quoted some are so implausable that I'm minded to think you are related to "Stuart Truth" :
Yeovil .. Twickenham .. Sutton & Cheam .. Lewes .. Kingston & Surbiton .. Hazel Grove .. Eastleigh .. Eastbourne .. Cheltenham .. Cheadle .. Bath
0 -
Sheeple haven't realised that to a politician "as soon as possible" means "never in a million years"Plato said:The Tory removing the deficit vs Labour removing the deficit is entertaining. Same policy - two quite different scores. Nice Labour Cuts...
Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA
0 -
The Tories had very few chances indeed in 2001. The Lib Dem vote has dropped a lot in Brecon. According to Ashcroft, so too has the Tory vote, but I find a 10% decline very hard to believe and the two parties are still very close in vote share even then.YBarddCwsc said:Brecon & Radnorshire is possible, but only if the Tories are performing right at the top end of expectation.
The Tories had their chance in 2001 when Richard Livesey retired. They blew it.
These rural Welsh seats rarely throw out sitting MPs (Lembit Opik is the exception that proves what you have to do to be dumped).
If the Tories get Brecon & Radnorshire, I’d expect their vote to be strong enough to take Gower as well.
I expect a Tory gain.0 -
The Sun are reporting a study by The University of Sheffield,
NIGEL Farage may end up costing Labour more seats than the Tories, top academics claimed last night.
A bombshell report said that even a two per cent swing from Labour voters to Ukip could cost Ed Miliband a precious 14 constituencies on May 7.0 -
Pollster in we've got a poll "definitely worth watching" shocker.TheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
In other news LibDems issue bar charts.
0 -
Mr. Eagles, I'd be entertained if that happened in Morley & Outwood.0
-
But is it a "corker" ?Smarmeron said:@TheScreamingEagles
Did you expect him to say "It isn't worth bothering about"?0 -
NB Mori is I believe the one phone pollster which isn't usually Con friendlyTheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
5 point Con lead, and ed getting shellacked by all comers on a "who to believe on cuts - you or Jim Murphy" ticket tonight, would do me nicely.
0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
Oooooooooooooooooooo...
Last MORI had Labour head by 1%, 34/33, so I should think either Lab have extended their lead or Con's gone ahead...
0 -
They've stopped issuing bar charts in Sheffield Hallam.JackW said:
Pollster in we've got a poll "definitely worth watching" shocker.TheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
In other news LibDems issue bar charts.
Just send endorsements from past Tory candidates telling us to vote for Nick Clegg.0 -
No change.TheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
0 -
Let's work out the most resentful voter type possible.Casino_Royale said:
I'm surprised free schools are so unpopular. Right to buy for housing association tenants doesn't look like it's gone down initially as well as expected, possible resentment from those who won't or didn't benefit.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA
Someone on £25k (Doesn't benefit from minimum wage or higher rate tax raises) who is single, rents privately, isn't set to inherit anything and doesn't get any benefit at all.
0 -
Antony Calvert was an excellent candidate. I see he's standing in Wakefield this time. A real longshot but on a very bad night for Labour..Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, or gain them, such as in Morley & Outwood
0 -
-
Hang fire on TSE's tweet, it has been removed for some reason
Edit :- It was on the Guardian blog.
*goes to get more caffeine*0 -
It's ok, I've made it onto the Guardian.Smarmeron said:Hang fire on TSE's tweet, it has been removed for some reason
0 -
Should be the type of voter the Tories naturally go for IMHO.Pulpstar said:
Let's work out the most resentful voter type possible.Casino_Royale said:
I'm surprised free schools are so unpopular. Right to buy for housing association tenants doesn't look like it's gone down initially as well as expected, possible resentment from those who won't or didn't benefit.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: YouGov rankings: Tories have single most popular idea but several unpopular ones too. All Lab ideas 50%+ approval http://t.co/U4SpPbEHZA
Someone on £25k (Doesn't benefit from minimum wage or higher rate tax raises) who is single, rents privately, isn't set to inherit anything and doesn't get any benefit at all.0 -
Whilst not thinking of anyone in particular I wonder whether that will work with certain Conservative guest editors of PB who live in Sheffield Hallam ?TheScreamingEagles said:
They've stopped issuing bar charts in Sheffield Hallam.JackW said:
Pollster in we've got a poll "definitely worth watching" shocker.TheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
In other news LibDems issue bar charts.
Just send endorsements from past Tory candidates telling us to vote for Nick Clegg.
0 -
10/1. Maybe my second favourite Tory long shot out there, after 5/1 Thurrock.YBarddCwsc said:Brecon & Radnorshire is possible, but only if the Tories are performing right at the top end of expectation.
The Tories had their chance in 2001 when Richard Livesey retired. They blew it.
These rural Welsh seats rarely throw out sitting MPs (Lembit Opik is the exception that proves what you have to do to be dumped).
If the Tories get Brecon & Radnorshire, I’d expect their vote to be strong enough to take Gower as well.0 -
ON the East Dunbartonshire poll that would be a 6 point underperformance of the Yes vote by the SNP and has the Lib Dems losing zero votes.0
-
I said so on here a week or so ago. UKIP could take Dudley North and Great Grimsby, possibly even Rother Valley, whilst only retaining Clacton.TheScreamingEagles said:The Sun are reporting a study by The University of Sheffield,
NIGEL Farage may end up costing Labour more seats than the Tories, top academics claimed last night.
A bombshell report said that even a two per cent swing from Labour voters to Ukip could cost Ed Miliband a precious 14 constituencies on May 7.0 -
If the Comres result is correct about Yeovil, which I doubt but hey ho 10-3 if it is, the Conservative tail is eating the Lib Dem head.TheScreamingEagles said:
They've stopped issuing bar charts in Sheffield Hallam.JackW said:
Pollster in we've got a poll "definitely worth watching" shocker.TheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
In other news LibDems issue bar charts.
Just send endorsements from past Tory candidates telling us to vote for Nick Clegg.0 -
@TSE - Do you think Clegg is value in Hallam?TheScreamingEagles said:
They've stopped issuing bar charts in Sheffield Hallam.JackW said:
Pollster in we've got a poll "definitely worth watching" shocker.TheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
In other news LibDems issue bar charts.
Just send endorsements from past Tory candidates telling us to vote for Nick Clegg.
Shadsy's 1.57 looks very generous to me.0 -
The pollsters are asking the wrong questions about the manifesto policies. The question is not "which is the most popular?" but "will any of them change my vote?". For example, scrapping zero hours contracts may be very popular with the general public, but if it only loses votes from the people who are on them and don't want to lose them, the policy is probably not a successful one. Conversely, extending the right to buy may be unpopular with the general public, but if it only wins votes from those who'd like to take advantage of them, the policy is probably a successful one.
We have no polling on the vote-changing nature of different policies, so the examples are entirely hypothetical.0 -
Cheadle, Cheltenham, Bath and Kingston and Surbiton are all possible IMHO.JackW said:
You really are down on the LibDems.rcs1000 said:
Bath (p)JackW said:
Ok ... your cobblers may remain intact.rcs1000 said:
Sorry, I meant SNP!JackW said:
Robert.rcs1000 said:
I'd put the LibDems on about 18 to 20 seats post the election, losing 6 or 7 to Labour, 6 or 7 to UKIP, and 20 to 25 to the Conservatives.antifrank said:Will the experts be more accurate than the pollsters? Will the experts be more accurate than amateurs?
I expect that it will be a fun afternoon, but of more interest for how it affects the mood music than for how it will inform our understanding of the coming election.
There are three imponderables for the coming election:
1) How well will UKIP do, and where?
2) How well will the SNP do, and if not at the top of their hopes, where?
3) How badly will the Lib Dems do, and where?
No one really knows the answer to these questions, so all we can expect are very well educated guesses.
LibDem lose 6-7 to UKIP - Utter cobblers.
Losses aren't in the abstract. Put some faces to those UKIP gains.
However 20-25 losses to Con is also very high. Which seats are you predicting the yellows to lose to the blues.
Brecon & Radnorshire
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Cornwall North
Devon North
Dorset Mid & Poole North
Eastbourne (p)
Eastleigh (p)
Edinburgh West (p)
Hazel Grove
Kingston & Surbiton
Lewes (p)
Portsmouth South
Somerset & Frome
St Austell & Nequay
St Ives
Sutton & Cheam
Taunton Deane
Torbay
Twickenham (p)
Wells
Yeovil (p)
Here you go. I'd expect the Libs to lose between two-thirds and three-quarters of this list, and I don't think any of them are safe. (The p's are the ones I suspect are most likely to be held.)
Did OGH make you recite "Winning Here" songs as a child and wear sandals until you went to University ??
Of the seats you quoted some are so implausable that I'm minded to think you are related to "Stuart Truth" :
Yeovil .. Twickenham .. Sutton & Cheam .. Lewes .. Kingston & Surbiton .. Hazel Grove .. Eastleigh .. Eastbourne .. Cheltenham .. Cheadle .. Bath0 -
They are preaching to the perverted convertedJackW said:
Whilst not thinking of anyone in particular I wonder whether that will work with certain Conservative guest editors of PB who live in Sheffield Hallam ?TheScreamingEagles said:
They've stopped issuing bar charts in Sheffield Hallam.JackW said:
Pollster in we've got a poll "definitely worth watching" shocker.TheScreamingEagles said:Ben Page of Ipsos Mori has said Ipsos Mori poll is out today and is "definitely worth watching"
In other news LibDems issue bar charts.
Just send endorsements from past Tory candidates telling us to vote for Nick Clegg.0 -
UKIP point out that this 'capacity' argument has not been proven:JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
I went through the main UK party manifestos last night to see what they said about rail in general, and HS2 in particular. This seems to be a reasonable summation:
UKIP:
Not in favour. Although does not have other solutions to the capacity problems."The argument that HS2 is needed to provide extra capacity has just weeks ago been questioned by the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, which concluded that: ‘the Government has not made a convincing case for why this particular project should go ahead.’"
They do suspect a capacity problem for air traffic, but want to wait for more data before finalising policy."The final report of the Davies Commission into airport capacity and connectivity in the UK will be published later this year. UKIP will consider its recommendations and then take a position on the basis of what we genuinely believe to be in the long-term best interests of the country.
p.37
However, we firmly believe that part of the solution to address the lack of airport capacity in the South East is to re-open Manston Airport. Manston is ideally placed to take low-cost airlines and freight-only aircraft; it is close to the railway network; enjoys good connections to Ashford International; will release additional capacity in the region; and take pressure off other airports."
http://www.ukip.org/manifesto2015
0
