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You have to wonder where Ukip are racking up the votes in national opinion polls as they are getting squeezed in these seats

James Wharton is a goner.

Good.

UKIP becoming an irrelevance in the marginals. Yet, it is interesting to see how in some seats (i.e Loughborough) the fleeing kippers are going blue, while in Stockton South the exodus favours Con and Lab equally. Perhaps UKIP will not have such a significant impact in the election, as there vote builds up in safe Tory shires?

blakmorerj said:

UKIP becoming an irrelevance in the marginals. Yet, it is interesting to see how in some seats (i.e Loughborough) the fleeing kippers are going blue, while in Stockton South the exodus favours Con and Lab equally. Perhaps UKIP will not have such a significant impact in the election, as there vote builds up in safe Tory shires?

It could be more complicated, indeed it probably is. Stockton has probably seen UKIP > Con, Con > Lab. With some none voters thrown in.

''UKIP becoming an irrelevance in the marginals.''

Still more than 10% in some of these seats, enough to change the vote significantly.

#changethetune number one trending on twitter.

Kippers must be spitting bricks being shown to be part of the LibLabConKip.

Only Kingswood and Loughborough look near-settled to me as yet.

FPT

DennisBets said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Bets, the freezing of commodity prices was known to be foolishness which could lead to shortages or even famine in the 4th century AD (Ammianus Marcellinus lambasted Julian the Apostate, of whom he was generally in favour, for just such a policy).

Mr Dancer, energy companies take the piss, ask the electorate in all the marginals if that is true and they will say yes. Your irrelevant quote of ancient socioeconomics merely proves you live in a river punting lacrosse loving fantasy world.

The people voting and suffering in this election do not find this important, they worry about take home pay and outgoing expenses.

How condescending.

I hope and think that the public aren't as thick or ignorant as you make out.

On the surface these Ashcroft polls seem good for the Conservatives, given the average swing is only 2%, compared with 5% in the last batch and 3.5% in the national polls.

However, I'm not sure this is correct. The reason being that Ashcroft has specifically chosen, on average, seats which he has previously polled with a lower swing for this batch of polls. There is always going to variance in the swing in the Lab - Con battleground, with it being higher than average in some and lower than average in the others. By picking a batch which he has previously identified as having a lower swing, it makes extrapolating the swing to the wider battleground much more difficult.

To show this point if we compare these polls to the last ones done by Ashcroft there has been an average movement of just 0.4% towards the conservatives (or a swing of 0.2%).

blakmorerj said:

Artist said:

Labour improved in four, Conservatives improved in five and Pudsey is the same.

Nicky Morgan looks safe.

Pudsey is looking to be a cracker. Perhaps 1st time incumbency will save Stuart Andrew in the end?

Tories at Evens if you enjoy a slightly weighted coinflip.

Kingswood is interesting - presumably that's due to demographic change. Question then is which Labour held marginals might go Tory due to similar demographic drift. Gedling or Chorley, perhaps?

BenM said:

James Wharton is a goner.

Good.

Think all here would be pleased with that. No-one wants to see someone who's apologetic to serious war criminals in the HoC.

antifrank said:

Only Kingswood and Loughborough look near-settled to me as yet.

8/11 & 8/13 available...

Millsy said:

You have to wonder where Ukip are racking up the votes in national opinion polls as they are getting squeezed in these seats

A year ago I speculated about what might happen to the UKIP vote if it started to wane:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2014/04/and-where-might-ukips-support-go-to.html

This holds up better than some of my older posts.

Judging by the tables, Stuart Andrew is going to have the Greens on his christmas card list come the election.

What are people's thoughts on Dover? It's interesting as it's not been opinion polled at all, has a larger Tory safety net than most of these, but that was on a very large swing last time around and it should have more Kippers than the average seat polled here (next door to Thanet).

So in conclusion the UKIP deflation is simply solidifying the Tory and Labour leads in seats they were ahead anyway in the last constituency polls, Harrow East the exception that benefits Labour so much they actually flip it in their column.
That's 42 LAB gains from the Tories in the constituency polls so far.

antifrank said:

Millsy said:

You have to wonder where Ukip are racking up the votes in national opinion polls as they are getting squeezed in these seats

A year ago I speculated about what might happen to the UKIP vote if it started to wane:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2014/04/and-where-might-ukips-support-go-to.html

This holds up better than some of my older posts.

Mr Goodwin keeps tweeting a bar chart of UKIP/Farage mentions in the press over time. The implication being that as UKIP gets more coverage during the election period their poll share/vote will increase.

twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/585405560914366464

Dair said:

#changethetune number one trending on twitter.

Kippers must be spitting bricks being shown to be part of the LibLabConKip.

Using a token black woman in a PEB doesn't change the fact that the Greens share more with the two big parties and Lib Dems than UKIP do

Mass immigration
Pro EU
Carbon subsidies
Big welfare state
Soft on crime

At least they stuck to their credentials and recycled a Horrible Histories sketch rather than making something new I guess

blakmorerj said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blakmorerj said:

UKIP becoming an irrelevance in the marginals. Yet, it is interesting to see how in some seats (i.e Loughborough) the fleeing kippers are going blue, while in Stockton South the exodus favours Con and Lab equally. Perhaps UKIP will not have such a significant impact in the election, as there vote builds up in safe Tory shires?

Sorry, what fleeing kippers in Loughborough? Of all the seats you could have picked for some strange reason you picked the one where the UKIP vote has not dropped at all (Remaining at 12% between October and April whilst up by 10% of the 2010 GE)

The interesting point in Loughborough is that the Tory lead has jumped from 3% to 9% without the UKIP vote dropping at all.

*Meant Kingswood! Apoligies.

Ah got you. No worries :-)

One other point of interest of course in all these marginals is the catastrophic collapse in the Lib Dem vote.

The first Harrow East poll was always suspect. It was quite at variance with the swings being found in other London constituencies.

murali_s said:

BenM said:

James Wharton is a goner.

Good.

Think all here would be pleased with that. No-one wants to see someone who's apologetic to serious war criminals in the HoC.

Surely the entirety of the Labour Party's apologetic to a serious war criminal? Of course, Blair's no longer in the HoC.

Dair said:

#changethetune number one trending on twitter.

Kippers must be spitting bricks being shown to be part of the LibLabConKip.

Go, go, go the Greens! Split the economically illiterate vote, you little beauties!

antifrank said:

The first Harrow East poll was always suspect. It was quite at variance with the swings being found in other London constituencies.

I remember the Euros - it was a bad start for Labour but I distinctly remember Chuka mentioning Redbridge and at the end of the night the results were a fair bit better than expected when the London chunk came in.

Richard_Tyndall said:

blakmorerj said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blakmorerj said:

UKIP becoming an irrelevance in the marginals. Yet, it is interesting to see how in some seats (i.e Loughborough) the fleeing kippers are going blue, while in Stockton South the exodus favours Con and Lab equally. Perhaps UKIP will not have such a significant impact in the election, as there vote builds up in safe Tory shires?

Sorry, what fleeing kippers in Loughborough? Of all the seats you could have picked for some strange reason you picked the one where the UKIP vote has not dropped at all (Remaining at 12% between October and April whilst up by 10% of the 2010 GE)

The interesting point in Loughborough is that the Tory lead has jumped from 3% to 9% without the UKIP vote dropping at all.

*Meant Kingswood! Apoligies.

Ah got you. No worries :-)

One other point of interest of course in all these marginals is the catastrophic collapse in the Lib Dem vote.

That's not catastophic at all, in fact it augers well for them holding onto around 25+ seats.

Would this be the right moment to mention that the politicians weren't individually named and to ask how that might have affected the polling?

Richard_Tyndall said:

blakmorerj said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

blakmorerj said:

UKIP becoming an irrelevance in the marginals. Yet, it is interesting to see how in some seats (i.e Loughborough) the fleeing kippers are going blue, while in Stockton South the exodus favours Con and Lab equally. Perhaps UKIP will not have such a significant impact in the election, as there vote builds up in safe Tory shires?

Sorry, what fleeing kippers in Loughborough? Of all the seats you could have picked for some strange reason you picked the one where the UKIP vote has not dropped at all (Remaining at 12% between October and April whilst up by 10% of the 2010 GE)

The interesting point in Loughborough is that the Tory lead has jumped from 3% to 9% without the UKIP vote dropping at all.

*Meant Kingswood! Apoligies.

Ah got you. No worries :-)

One other point of interest of course in all these marginals is the catastrophic collapse in the Lib Dem vote.

Not catastrophic enough - only losing three deposits.

Given that these are seats in which the Lib Dems are not remotely in contention, they would prefer to be losing more votes here in order to reconcile their national vote share with holding onto more votes where it could save MPs.

Their average share in these marginals is 5.2% (-12.1)

@bbclaurak: interesting day in Dundee West - no question SNP have whip hand but ground situation more fluid in Scotland than 1st appears

To support my earlier comment, Labour's position with the May 2015 model has improved based on these polls.

Before these polls May 2015 had the Conservatives ahead in 9 of the 10 seats polled, they are now ahead in 5.

Miss Plato, that's a fairly substantial change (although staying in the Rational group).

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

The first Harrow East poll was always suspect. It was quite at variance with the swings being found in other London constituencies.

I remember the Euros - it was a bad start for Labour but I distinctly remember Chuka mentioning Redbridge and at the end of the night the results were a fair bit better than expected when the London chunk came in.

The Tories won (in aggregate) the wards comprising Ilford North in the Redbridge Council elections on the same day as the Euros.

Have you received the "Good News" from Wes yet ?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

The first Harrow East poll was always suspect. It was quite at variance with the swings being found in other London constituencies.

I remember the Euros - it was a bad start for Labour but I distinctly remember Chuka mentioning Redbridge and at the end of the night the results were a fair bit better than expected when the London chunk came in.

The Tories won (in aggregate) the wards comprising Ilford North in the Redbridge Council elections on the same day as the Euros.

What do you predict? It'll be very close for sure.

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

DennisBets said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Bets, the freezing of commodity prices was known to be foolishness which could lead to shortages or even famine in the 4th century AD (Ammianus Marcellinus lambasted Julian the Apostate, of whom he was generally in favour, for just such a policy).

Mr Dancer, energy companies take the piss, ask the electorate in all the marginals if that is true and they will say yes. Your irrelevant quote of ancient socioeconomics merely proves you live in a river punting lacrosse loving fantasy world.

The people voting and suffering in this election do not find this important, they worry about take home pay and outgoing expenses.

How condescending.

I hope and think that the public aren't as thick or ignorant as you make out.

The public have a combined intelligence greater than any one person! Unpicking fairy tales and challenging block reflex substanceless condemnation for a clearly left wing policy is not being condescending.

Reality check

Pulpstar said:

Anyone else have a comedy green on Labour Majority at the moment by the way ?

Yes though the recent 'plunge' has cut it in half. I am now equally comedy green on both Majs. Can't see NOM getting too much shorter before the exit poll and a surge one way or the other is quite possible in response to [rogue?] polling.

The_Woodpecker said:

Lennon said:

What are people's thoughts on Dover? It's interesting as it's not been opinion polled at all, has a larger Tory safety net than most of these, but that was on a very large swing last time around and it should have more Kippers than the average seat polled here (next door to Thanet).

Charlie Elphicke to hold on. Labour to beat UKIP.

5/1 looks generous but I suspect it will be an honorable 2nd for UKIP.

Floater said:

some of those look encouraging for the blues?

And some don't :-) On balance I'd say it was marginally positive for the Tories - the biggest single movements on the constituency betting [Kingswood & Loughborough] have been in their favour. But it's all pretty consistent with the national picture.

@hopisen: latest @LordAshcroft polls seem good for Labour if seen as 10 seat polls, bit better for tories if seen as clue to marginals swing overall

MikeL said:

kieran said:

On the surface these Ashcroft polls seem good for the Conservatives, given the average swing is only 2%, compared with 5% in the last batch and 3.5% in the national polls.

However, I'm not sure this is correct. The reason being that Ashcroft has specifically chosen, on average, seats which he has previously polled with a lower swing for this batch of polls. There is always going to variance in the swing in the Lab - Con battleground, with it being higher than average in some and lower than average in the others. By picking a batch which he has previously identified as having a lower swing, it makes extrapolating the swing to the wider battleground much more difficult.

To show this point if we compare these polls to the last ones done by Ashcroft there has been an average movement of just 0.4% towards the conservatives (or a swing of 0.2%).

However you also have to factor in random sample variation. Plus the fact it is harder to get an individual constituency poll accurate than a national poll.

Thus whilst the first round of polling showed Con was doing better than average in these seats they may not really have been doing better than average - because of the above two factors.

Plus you have to add that they are 10 different seats (ie big sample) with a good geographical spread - so hard to see why taken together they should behave significantly different from average.

So another new batch of polls in these 10 seats showing just a 2% swing is, in my view, very encouraging for Con.

It's seems to me that the points you raise in your first two sentences are contradicted by the points you make in your last two sentences. You are of course right that there is likely to be random sampling variation affecting each of these individual polls. However, you are also correct that this is likely to cancel itself out across a sample of 10 seats.

So we have 10 seats which were previously showing a below-average swing to Labour in aggregate, still showing a below-average swing to Labour. It seems unlikely to me that this has much to do with sample variation.

The last set of Ashcroft polls had a 5% swing and that was just a few weeks ago. It seems unlikely that there has been a dramatic change in the last few weeks given other polling.

What is much more likely, in my view, is that there is something systemic about these seats which is resulting in a below average swing. You say its hard to see why they would behave differently but there are lots of reasons other than geography which alters the level of swing between seats - demographic change, incumbent popularity and campaign activity to name just a few.

The vast majority of seats are not marginals.

Millsy said:

You have to wonder where Ukip are racking up the votes in national opinion polls as they are getting squeezed in these seats

Funny event. Nice photo. Strange headline, considering what actually happened...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32216710

David Cameron has given an interview to The House magazine, in which he:

Declares that there can’t be another referendum on Scottish independence within a generation, possibly within his lifetime.

Makes clear that his view that Scotland’s future is “settled” would not change - even if the SNP puts a new referendum in their 2016 Holyrood manifesto.

Defends the BBC against Alex Salmond’s claim that the Corporation was a “national disgrace” in its referendum reporting.

https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/house/union-city-cruise