politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The official campaign Day 1: The line-up for Thursday night

No doubt the BBC, Sky and Channel 4 are all prepared to analyse the Good Lord's latest offering in depth.

It's a good job Ed did so well in the 'debate' otherwise we'd be looking at 6-point Tory leads.

The comment on Saturday night's thread are hysterical, they make Sion Simon look like a seer.

Love Ashcroft's focus groups so much:

The UKIP house is “a bit Hyacinth Bucket” and has “a wrought iron fence all round it to keep everyone out”. There is a flagpole in the garden and the local hunt is gathering outside. The ageing residents (who “don’t get on with their neighbours because they are a different colour”) are smoking heavily and “talking about how it was in their day”. The timer on the stereo is set to play the national anthem every day at noon.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-national-poll-con-36-lab-34-lib-dem-6-ukip-10-green-7/#more-11140

RepublicanTory said:

MikeK said:

GoodnightVienna ‏@CallingEngland 1m1 minute ago
What's all this I'm hearing on the radio abt the Cons deliberately throwing Thanet South in order to hand it to Labour & oust Farage? #UKIP

Well the Conservatives have been plastering the Constituency since the start of the weekend with vote Mackinlay boards so they are not sparing the resources.

I will try and get an update on how the Conservatives view things so far and post it here.

If the Conservatives were to throw in the towel in that seat, then Farage would win easily.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lord A

Con 36 (+3) Lab 34 (+1) LD 6 (-2) UKIP 10 (-2) Greens 7 (+2)

Can we all have a "hell yeah".....

On a serious note, I think what is more interesting is that Tories are now starting to hit 35-36%...that is an uptick, I think taking some votes from UKIP. The question is that all, or will a Miliband government scare more of the "I hate f##king Cameron" brigade to switch at the end?

36 taking a pounding again.

In see from the Telegraph the LDs seem to be travelling the country in a yellow removal van. Marginally worse than a pink transit I think.

Meantime in more important news it also seems that leaders will be able to choose the heights of their podiums.

As Adlai Stevenson said, polls should be taken but not inhaled.

weejonnie said:

No doubt the BBC, Sky and Channel 4 are all prepared to analyse the Good Lord's latest offering in depth.

The BBC have a dedicated poll analysis guy, who was at pains this morning to say that Labour drew level with the Tories 9 months after the election, while the Tories took 9 years after 1997

He neglected to mention the relative size of the majorities in each case.

Ashcroft focus group on resistance to further austerity:

But discussion about the prospect of future cuts revealed some confusion about the need for austerity, and particularly the difference between the debt and the deficit: “They have said we need to cut deeper but the national debt has gone up, apparently. So why have their been cuts? I don’t mind cuts if the debt’s not going up, but…” And if things are so good, why are they so bad? “We’re supposed to be out of recession. I don’t understand why we’ve got so much debt. They don’t explain it properly. With the taxes we pay, you think, how much do they want to drain us?”

36% again for the Tories.

I see the most noble lord has put out a poll

Patrick said:

Purseybear said:

Ashcroft National Poll, 27-29 March: CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 10%, GRN 7%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.

National = UK? Means Labour probably ahead in England. Means EICIPM?

The English vote shares are Con 40%, Lab 34, UKIP 11%.

Tissue_Price said:

Love Ashcroft's focus groups so much:

The UKIP house is “a bit Hyacinth Bucket” and has “a wrought iron fence all round it to keep everyone out”. There is a flagpole in the garden and the local hunt is gathering outside. The ageing residents (who “don’t get on with their neighbours because they are a different colour”) are smoking heavily and “talking about how it was in their day”. The timer on the stereo is set to play the national anthem every day at noon.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-national-poll-con-36-lab-34-lib-dem-6-ukip-10-green-7/#more-11140

The Labour house is in a terrace, with the front door leading straight onto the pavement. High-vis jackets hang in the hallway, and people in the living room are watching their 50-inch plasma TV, and eating cottage pie with chips and beer. “The furniture is nice, but it’s all on HP”.
The Conservative house has nice thick carpets and “one of those kitchen islands”. There are Hunter wellies in the hall and a “posh dog”, probably a chocolate Labrador. But “you can’t get to the door because there is an intercom at the gates” and once inside “you have to wipe your feet”.
The Lib Dem house is in a cul-de-sac. There are sandals by the door and solar panels on the roof. This house is also home to a dog (“a mongrel from the rescue centre”) that would be allowed to jump on the sofa. The décor is either plain and beige or “quite odd”, having been chosen by “trendy intellectuals”.

Must say that the Labour House does not appear to be the same as EdM's - his is more like the Conservative House.

Throw in!!!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

weejonnie said:

No doubt the BBC, Sky and Channel 4 are all prepared to analyse the Good Lord's latest offering in depth.

The BBC have a dedicated poll analysis guy, who was at pains this morning to say that Labour drew level with the Tories 9 months after the election, while the Tories took 9 years after 1997

He neglected to mention the relative size of the majorities in each case.

That's a lie.

The Tories moved ahead in Sep 2000.

Some three years and a bit after Lab were elected.

Yes - but that was exceptional wasn't it - petrol pump prices and blockade by tanker drivers?

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Does the Freeman ad actually say anything beyond "Aren't Labour nice?"

Well, it needs an actor to say it.

Nobody who went through the last 13th years of Labour Govt. would say there was anything "nice" about "there is no money left...."

Greens out polling the Lib Dems. Another pollster with UKIP approaching 9%.

I am Nostradamus

currystar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I did like martins statement that the Tories have done sod all for the young. Since 2012 we have taken on 13 apprentices all aged 16 or 17 and the government has given us £1500 for each one to help pay for their training . Interesting definition of sod all . I must ask our apprentices to see what they think.

He was probably remembering that it was Vince Cable who really got the apprenticeship programme up and running.

Tory governments don´t usually bother.

NickPalmer said:

Flightpath said:

Meanwhile in France,
''French politics went from ding to dong on Sunday. One side, the dingers, was cock-a-hoop. The others, the dongers, swore they would be back next time.
Both the conservative dingers and Socialist dongers agreed on one thing, though. Thank goodness they had once again kept out those nasty upstarts, the clangers of the National Front.''

At least the French see that 'ding dong' is better than 'ting tong'.

That obscure post is reporting the second round of the French local elections, which were interesting, because despite the refusal of the centre-right (Sarkozy) to agree a common front against the National Front, the voters did it anyway. The FN actually lost ground (by 3%) compared with the first round, winning only five councils out of 278 on a slightly higher turnout.

That appears to suggest a ceiling to the FN vote - they are able to get a quarter of the vote, but the other three quarters are generally hostile enough to vote for traditional rivals in order to keep them out.

It was obscure enough to be from the BBC to which I apologise for not linking to it.
However I am grateful to you for repeating what it and I said using quite different words. Such is the richness of the English Language.

antifrank said:

I don't take this poll any more seriously than the YouGov on Saturday night.

The focus groups are fascinating, however, and hilarious.

That's the best bit about Lord A's polling.

Essentially like YouGov this indicates neck and neck.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am Nostradamus

More like Rogerdarmus...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Greens out polling the Lib Dems. Another pollster with UKIP approaching 9%.

I am Nostradamus

Not Rogerdamus ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lord A

Con 36 (+3) Lab 34 (+1) LD 6 (-2) UKIP 10 (-2) Greens 7 (+2)

Hell, no! I mean Yes!

TheScreamingEagles said:

The comment on Saturday night's thread are hysterical, they make Sion Simon look like a seer.

I think that thread should be repeated as an entertaining read - perhaps along with tonight's YouGov as an update?

Am I right in reading the Ashcroft poll shows only 1 voter in Scotland admitting the intention of voting LibDem?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

weejonnie said:

No doubt the BBC, Sky and Channel 4 are all prepared to analyse the Good Lord's latest offering in depth.

The BBC have a dedicated poll analysis guy, who was at pains this morning to say that Labour drew level with the Tories 9 months after the election, while the Tories took 9 years after 1997

He neglected to mention the relative size of the majorities in each case.

That's a lie.

The Tories moved ahead in Sep 2000.

Some three years and a bit after Lab were elected.

It was a dramatic swing and then a fairly dramatic swing back - a 15 point Average LAbour Lead in the preceding 7 polls, a 3 point Average Con lead over the mid september polls and then back to a 4 point average Labout lead that then stretched out to a 10 point and then 14 point Average Lab lead over the next sets of polls.

I'm rubbish at remembering stuff was their a significant event then that caused the poll swingage?

Danny565 said:

Ashcroft focus group on resistance to further austerity:

But discussion about the prospect of future cuts revealed some confusion about the need for austerity, and particularly the difference between the debt and the deficit: “They have said we need to cut deeper but the national debt has gone up, apparently. So why have their been cuts? I don’t mind cuts if the debt’s not going up, but…” And if things are so good, why are they so bad? “We’re supposed to be out of recession. I don’t understand why we’ve got so much debt. They don’t explain it properly. With the taxes we pay, you think, how much do they want to drain us?”

God help us all!

MarqueeMark said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

I don't take this poll any more seriously than the YouGov on Saturday night.

The focus groups are fascinating, however, and hilarious.

That's the best bit about Lord A's polling.

Essentially like YouGov this indicates neck and neck.

Hmmmm probably but that's 3 polls in a row today with the Tories up 3% in each.

YouGov tonight could be informative....

I'm sensing a Con/Lab tie with YouGov but Con may be up 2-3% from Saturday, perhaps 35/35?

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

weejonnie said:

No doubt the BBC, Sky and Channel 4 are all prepared to analyse the Good Lord's latest offering in depth.

The BBC have a dedicated poll analysis guy, who was at pains this morning to say that Labour drew level with the Tories 9 months after the election, while the Tories took 9 years after 1997

He neglected to mention the relative size of the majorities in each case.

That's a lie.

The Tories moved ahead in Sep 2000.

Some three years and a bit after Lab were elected.

It was a dramatic swing and then a fairly dramatic swing back - a 15 point Average LAbour Lead in the preceding 7 polls, a 3 point Average Con lead over the mid september polls and then back to a 4 point average Labout lead that then stretched out to a 10 point and then 14 point Average Lab lead over the next sets of polls.

I'm rubbish at remembering stuff was their a significant event then that caused the poll swingage?

Petrol tanker drivers' strike.

I listened to the spectator podcast yesterday and they were going in about the 4% poll lead for labour, as were the rest of the media. Egg on face.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

weejonnie said:

No doubt the BBC, Sky and Channel 4 are all prepared to analyse the Good Lord's latest offering in depth.

The BBC have a dedicated poll analysis guy, who was at pains this morning to say that Labour drew level with the Tories 9 months after the election, while the Tories took 9 years after 1997

He neglected to mention the relative size of the majorities in each case.

That's a lie.

The Tories moved ahead in Sep 2000.

Some three years and a bit after Lab were elected.

It was a dramatic swing and then a fairly dramatic swing back - a 15 point Average LAbour Lead in the preceding 7 polls, a 3 point Average Con lead over the mid september polls and then back to a 4 point average Labout lead that then stretched out to a 10 point and then 14 point Average Lab lead over the next sets of polls.

I'm rubbish at remembering stuff was their a significant event then that caused the poll swingage?

The fuel blockade

Ah, of course - that changed my daily newspaper preference from the Scotsman to the Herald. The Scotsmen had been going down the tubes since he Barclay Brother/Andrew Neil takeover and their fuel blockade reportage was the straw that broke the camel's back.

NickPalmer said:

Flightpath said:

Meanwhile in France,
''French politics went from ding to dong on Sunday. One side, the dingers, was cock-a-hoop. The others, the dongers, swore they would be back next time.
Both the conservative dingers and Socialist dongers agreed on one thing, though. Thank goodness they had once again kept out those nasty upstarts, the clangers of the National Front.''

At least the French see that 'ding dong' is better than 'ting tong'.

That obscure post is reporting the second round of the French local elections, which were interesting, because despite the refusal of the centre-right (Sarkozy) to agree a common front against the National Front, the voters did it anyway. The FN actually lost ground (by 3%) compared with the first round, winning only five councils out of 278 on a slightly higher turnout.

That appears to suggest a ceiling to the FN vote - they are able to get a quarter of the vote, but the other three quarters are generally hostile enough to vote for traditional rivals in order to keep them out.

I suppose that is one way to spin the FN's best ever result in local elections where their share of the vote rose sharply as did their number of councillors (2 to 90?).

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Leftie's don't like irony.


Dan Hodges retweeted
Steve hawkes‏@steve_hawkes·10 mins10 minutes ago
Hollywood star Martin Freeman champions Labour's compassion and decency - partner Amanda Abbington tweets "#proud #fucktheTories ..."

Wonderful!

Betting question.

Ladbrokes have UKIP @ 3.50 in the 5-10 % and @ 2.37 10-15%.

I want to even out my potential gain in the 5-15% band.

What ratio should I bet as between the two?

TheWatcher said:

RobD said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Leftie's don't like irony.


Dan Hodges retweeted
Steve hawkes‏@steve_hawkes·10 mins10 minutes ago
Hollywood star Martin Freeman champions Labour's compassion and decency - partner Amanda Abbington tweets "#proud #fucktheTories ..."

Wonderful!

Is she the lady who didn't pay her taxes?

That'd be the proverbial cherry on top.

Grandiose said:

Betting question.

Ladbrokes have UKIP @ 3.50 in the 5-10 % and @ 2.37 10-15%.

I want to even out my potential gain in the 5-15% band.

What ratio should I bet as between the two?

1:1.47. You need to equalise the returns.

e.g. £20 @ 5/2 returns £70
£29.50 @ 11/8 returns £70.06

Total stake is £49.50 to win £20.50 i.e. just a fraction better than 2/5.

FalseFlag said:

NickPalmer said:

Flightpath said:

Meanwhile in France,
''French politics went from ding to dong on Sunday. One side, the dingers, was cock-a-hoop. The others, the dongers, swore they would be back next time.
Both the conservative dingers and Socialist dongers agreed on one thing, though. Thank goodness they had once again kept out those nasty upstarts, the clangers of the National Front.''

At least the French see that 'ding dong' is better than 'ting tong'.

That obscure post is reporting the second round of the French local elections, which were interesting, because despite the refusal of the centre-right (Sarkozy) to agree a common front against the National Front, the voters did it anyway. The FN actually lost ground (by 3%) compared with the first round, winning only five councils out of 278 on a slightly higher turnout.

That appears to suggest a ceiling to the FN vote - they are able to get a quarter of the vote, but the other three quarters are generally hostile enough to vote for traditional rivals in order to keep them out.

I suppose that is one way to spin the FN's best ever result in local elections where their share of the vote rose sharply.

Plenty of left wing French voters will vote UMP/UDI to keep out FN, but I don't think UMP/UDI voters are willing to vote Left to keep out FN to anything like the same extent.

FN won 62 seats, up from one last time, although that's still only 1.5% of the total. But, there were quite a lot of other victorious candidates who were pretty much on the same wavelength as FN, even if they aren't in the party, such as Jaques Bompard in Vaucleuse.

Yet again, His Lordship publishes a LibDem figure at variance from what's in his tables. I make the LibDems on 7, like the Greens.

GIN1138 said:

MarqueeMark said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

I don't take this poll any more seriously than the YouGov on Saturday night.

The focus groups are fascinating, however, and hilarious.

That's the best bit about Lord A's polling.

Essentially like YouGov this indicates neck and neck.

Hmmmm probably but that's 3 polls in a row today with the Tories up 3% in each.

YouGov tonight could be informative....

I'm sensing a Con/Lab tie with YouGov but Con may be up 2-3% from Saturday, perhaps 35/35?

A Con lead would consign the Sunday Times front page into the chip wrappers of history....

GIN1138 said:

MarqueeMark said:

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

I don't take this poll any more seriously than the YouGov on Saturday night.

The focus groups are fascinating, however, and hilarious.

That's the best bit about Lord A's polling.

Essentially like YouGov this indicates neck and neck.

Hmmmm probably but that's 3 polls in a row today with the Tories up 3% in each.

YouGov tonight could be informative....

I'm sensing a Con/Lab tie with YouGov but Con may be up 2-3% from Saturday, perhaps 35/35?

If it is that then the Sunday Times headline will be looking a bit sick.
It would also mean that the attack by the crack 1930th Spending Scare Division was beaten back with heavy loss.
If the defenders of 36 really are starving and reduced to drinking their own urine from discarded Labour campaign mugs, then we could see a 37 flag being waved by a yougov Forlorn Hope outlier

I can't believe I've reduced myself to such a level of geeky, autistic, obsessive, male dominated behaviour (which befits the vast majority of my comrades on pbCOM) but looking at the longer term trends of the polls shows the Tory doing significantly better using weekend samples.

Do these make these polls more accurate? I really don't know- perhaps Tories are more likely to be at home then, which sadly, means that perhaps they are more realistic than the weekly polls when Labour do better.