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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big boost for the Tories in tonight’s ComRes phone poll

RT @tom_ComRes: Con lead by 4 points as Miliband sees no Paxo bounce – our new poll for @itvnews / @DailyMailUK pic.twitter.com/pTp9GCS0Ty

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Comments

  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    edited March 2015
    The futility of banging on about every poll as if it means something encapsulated in one day

    Like cheering throw ins at a football match
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Some wag will be on shortly to advise all of PB that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Can I nominate IoS as the new Rogerdamus?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    isam said:

    The futility of banging on about every poll as if it means something encapsulated in one day

    Like cheering throw ins at a football match

    Stop trying to take away one of the political anoraks small pleasures in this bleak world! ;)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited March 2015
    Broken, sleazy Lab on the slide...

    #Gabble #Gobble
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can I nominate IoS as the new Rogerdamus?

    There is only one Rogerdamus.

    All others are but mere pale imitations basking in the after glow of his presence.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    Just wait for ScottP to reappear and change the name
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The more I see of the polls, the more I think that all of our pollsters are working in the dark. White sticks anyone?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    ComedyResults the new gold standard in 5....4....3....2....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sigh.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    GIN1138 said:

    Broken, sleazy Lab on the slide...

    #Gabble #Gobble

    What ever happened to old Gabble...wink wink...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    isam said:

    The futility of banging on about every poll as if it means something encapsulated in one day

    Like cheering throw ins at a football match

    Very true.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Paxo bounce for Ed huh?

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/582287363017220097

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/582288732017074176
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Freggles said:

    ComedyResults the new gold standard in 5....4....3....2....

    I think we'll have a "real" gold standard this week...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    The second poll in two days to put the Cons on 36%.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited March 2015
    @Andrew_ComRes: Tonight's ComRes poll for @itvnews / @DailyMailUK finds nearly 1 in 5 Lab voters (18%) thinks Cam wd make better PM than Ed M

    @Andrew_ComRes: 29% of 2010 Lab voters think Cam wd make better PM than Ed M (ComRes for @itvnews / @DailyMailUK)

    That includes the shadow cabinet...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Freggles said:

    ComedyResults the new gold standard in 5....4....3....2....

    Beat you to it on the last thread, I'm afraid :D
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    Where is Sunil with his elbow, when you need him?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Nothing about the debates,all about appearance
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    isam said:

    The futility of banging on about every poll as if it means something encapsulated in one day

    Like cheering throw ins at a football match

    With something like 15 polls a week, you're bound to get something to cheer about.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Embarassing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited March 2015
    Plato said:

    @kle4 Have you tried Better Call Saul out? It was rather slow to begin with but seems to be finding its feet.

    Bosch is worth a go for cop show stuff too.

    Not seen BCS yet, I waited until Breaking Bad was almost over to watch that, and while I liked it and Walter White was a great character, truly great, I felt the praise on that one was overhyped. Since I figure it's bound to get several seasons at least, I might wait until next year, but it sounds promising.

    Just finished with Bosch actually, it wasn't stunning or anything, but it was a pretty good cop drama I felt and I'm a big fan of Titus Welliver whenever he pops up in things, it was nice to see him as the main character in something.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    Labour supporters and 'those-who-think-Labour-will-win'ers, thank you very much - it wasn't only Labour supporters being excited.

    Though I maintain my official comment that it was merely a reaction to the overall picture and that the Labour lead indicated at best the general trend of stasis continuing, for most people, not overreacting to one poll. Yeah, that's it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    As I missed the fun I would find it informative.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited March 2015
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Broken, sleazy Lab on the slide...

    #Gabble #Gobble

    What ever happened to old Gabble...wink wink...
    #porridge ?

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    MikeK said:

    The more I see of the polls, the more I think that all of our pollsters are working in the dark. White sticks anyone?

    Mike, how likely do you think it is that UKIP will get the most seats?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Will Sunil be including this in last week's ELBOW? If so, that should convert it to a Tory lead.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    Freggles said:

    ComedyResults the new gold standard in 5....4....3....2....

    I think we'll have a "real" gold standard this week...
    Quite so.

    Tuesday morning at 9:00am. :innocent:

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Danny565 said:

    Will Sunil be including this in last week's ELBOW? If so, that should convert it to a Tory lead.

    I think he should do, given the fieldwork dates (I think it is Monday-Sunday for his weekly averages)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    These two polls are probably cumulatively better for Lab/Con than a pair of ties - the focus on the head-to-head battle is raising the two-party share. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 70% result. (40-30, natch.)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    It would actually be more fun to watch today's Sunday politics for the parade of pundits proclaiming Ed's debate bounce...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I was getting worried, but here it is...

    @MSmithsonPB: @Andrew_ComRes @itvnews @DailyMailUK Callaghan had 21% lead as best PM in day before Maggie elected in 1979. Big incumbency bias

    Dave can't win...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Freggles said:

    ComedyResults the new gold standard in 5....4....3....2....

    I think we'll have a "real" gold standard this week...
    Quite so.

    Tuesday morning at 9:00am. :innocent:

    Aren't you normally tucked up in bed with a cup of cocoa and a paperback by now?

    You are 132 you know....

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    SMukesh said:

    Embarassing.

    ...is a very good way to describe the Labour leader's and the vice chair of his election campaign's appearances on TV in the past few days....

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    When is the 7 way ?

    Reckon that'll shape the campaign personally.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Now we just need Ashcroft to come along with a Lib Dem boost
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    As I missed the fun I would find it informative.
    Well, it wasn't quite as intense as the pessimists (such as myself) reacting to that rogue Yes lead in the IndyRef, but the words 'No chance' in relation to the Tories may have slipped out and been a bit unwise, even if the result ends up poorly for them. I may have to put on hold my consideration of reviving my Lab majority prediction.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    I have died laughing.

    Posthumously, let me quote a tweet from the owner of Britain's most-read political blog from only this afternoon:

    "What's important with polling at this stage is how it impacts on the overall narrative. It's less about the mathematics but the mood."

    How very true that is.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    France's Conservative UMP Party and its allies appear to have come first in the final round of departmental elections.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32104760
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    @kle4 Have you tried Better Call Saul out? It was rather slow to begin with but seems to be finding its feet.

    Bosch is worth a go for cop show stuff too.

    Not seen BCS yet, I waited until Breaking Bad was almost over to watch that, and while I liked it and Walter White was a great character, truly great, I felt the praise on that one was overhyped. Since I figure it's bound to get several seasons at least, I might wait until next year, but it sounds promising.

    Just finished with Bosch actually, it wasn't stunning or anything, but it was a pretty good cop drama I felt and I'm a big fan of Titus Welliver whenever he pops up in things, it was nice to see him as the main character in something.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    Labour supporters and 'those-who-think-Labour-will-win'ers, thank you very much - it wasn't only Labour supporters being excited.

    Though I maintain my official comment that it was merely a reaction to the overall picture and that the Labour lead indicated at best the general trend of stasis continuing, for most people, not overreacting to one poll. Yeah, that's it.
    Gus Fring has to be *the* outstanding villain on TV.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Freggles said:

    Now we just need Ashcroft to come along with a Lib Dem boost

    Now now, I know this is The Most Unpredictable Election In History, but even so there's a limit to how unrealistic it can be.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    David Cameron has the best economic policies and Ed Miliband urgently needs to rethink his plans to "penalise" business leaders, one of Labour's biggest donors has warned.

    In an intervention which threatens to overshadow the first formal day of election campaigning, Dr Assem Allam said that the Labour leader needed to stop demonising the wealthy and entrepreneurial - and indicated that he may not even vote for Mr Miliband's party.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11502967/Labour-donor-David-Cameron-has-the-best-economic-policies.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Freggles said:

    Now we just need Ashcroft to come along with a Lib Dem boost

    If there is one party that never seems to get a boost it is the Lib Dems, but OGH has assured me that Gerald Vernon Jackson can walk on water so I've slightly hedged in Portsmouth.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/582290191089590273
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    *PHEW*
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    When is the 7 way ?

    Reckon that'll shape the campaign personally.

    Pulpstar said:

    When is the 7 way ?

    Reckon that'll shape the campaign personally.

    Thursday 8 till 10. Popcorn or Doritos?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    https://twitter.com/tom_ComRes/status/582290509047164928
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    Tax bomb...tax bomb...

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/582290148920041472
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited March 2015
    My reactions to polls make me think it's a good idea I'll probably be assisting with the count in my neck of the woods on GE night, as it shall keep me occupied and not making silly comments in relation to exit polls and seat predictions and shifting throughout the night as things develop.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Freggles said:

    ComedyResults the new gold standard in 5....4....3....2....

    I think we'll have a "real" gold standard this week...
    Quite so.

    Tuesday morning at 9:00am. :innocent:

    Aren't you normally tucked up in bed with a cup of cocoa and a paperback by now?

    You are 132 you know....

    Almost correct.

    Mrs JackW is reading the paperback. :smile:

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    Fieldwork? If it's finished today (Sunday), I can include in this coming week's ELBOW (Easter Sunday).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Sean_F said:

    The second poll in two days to put the Cons on 36%.

    I think the Conservatives will poll 35-36% on the day.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    Whats that in tiny writing at the bottom...Mirror...plod...hacking...masses of unopened evidence...

    Ed...Ed...still waiting Ed. I thought you stood up to these people?
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    So, on post-Paxman-Not-A-Real-Debate polling, The proportion of people favouring Cameron as best PM has increased, decreased for Ed Milliband?
    Didn't a contributor here some time ago suggest that "Ed Milliband on television is bad for Labour"?
    And did some contributors here furiously pour scorn on the idea?
    My recollection is a little hazy.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    Those numbers for personal qualities aren't at all bad for Milliband.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    As I missed the fun I would find it informative.
    I'll give you two comments from less than an hour ago

    "Ed has fired up the base. That's going to most likely reflect in the polls."

    and

    "Aren't the Tories meant to be polling 4/5% ahead anyway according to the super computer calculations.

    Another week down and another week closer to Ed being PM."
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    TSE,Was this poll expected or a surprise?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited March 2015
    I thought I also saw two Dexter actors in Chuck - Lumen and the porn mad forensic guy.

    Actor spotting is one of my favourite pastimes... Love Titus Welliver, he was great as War, the horseman.
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    @kle4 Have you tried Better Call Saul out? It was rather slow to begin with but seems to be finding its feet.

    Bosch is worth a go for cop show stuff too.

    Not seen BCS yet, I waited until Breaking Bad was almost over to watch that, and while I liked it and Walter White was a great character, truly great, I felt the praise on that one was overhyped. Since I figure it's bound to get several seasons at least, I might wait until next year, but it sounds promising.

    Just finished with Bosch actually, it wasn't stunning or anything, but it was a pretty good cop drama I felt and I'm a big fan of Titus Welliver whenever he pops up in things, it was nice to see him as the main character in something.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    Labour supporters and 'those-who-think-Labour-will-win'ers, thank you very much - it wasn't only Labour supporters being excited.

    Though I maintain my official comment that it was merely a reaction to the overall picture and that the Labour lead indicated at best the general trend of stasis continuing, for most people, not overreacting to one poll. Yeah, that's it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    FIELDWORK WAS YESTERDAY AND TODAY VIA PHONE
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited March 2015
    This must be of some serious concern for Labour . After the so called meme of 5 years of savage cuts and selling bits of the NHS off from a market stall they can be this far behind even on one poll?
    On the other hand the Tories will be concerned that they just cannot get a continuous poll lead.

    I think though the SNP is starting to resonance and if the Tories want to win they must hammer that message in every interview just like Labour do for their memes

    Neither can be complacent though or claim to be heading for No 10.

    Plaid Cymru the kingmakers?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Fat_Steve said:

    So, on post-Paxman-Not-A-Real-Debate polling, The proportion of people favouring Cameron as best PM has increased, decreased for Ed Milliband?
    Didn't a contributor here some time ago suggest that "Ed Milliband on television is bad for Labour"?
    And did some contributors here furiously pour scorn on the idea?
    My recollection is a little hazy.

    Depends which data set you want to choose
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    SMukesh said:

    TSE,Was this poll expected or a surprise?

    Both
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    The second poll in two days to put the Cons on 36%.

    I think the Conservatives will poll 35-36% on the day.
    The caveat is two polls in two days also put them on 31/32%.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Will Sunil be including this in last week's ELBOW? If so, that should convert it to a Tory lead.

    I think he should do, given the fieldwork dates (I think it is Monday-Sunday for his weekly averages)
    Just to clarify, the Sunil on Sunday is normally a Sunday rag, so an ELBOW week runs from Sunday to Saturday, with ELBOW published, ideally, on the Sunday following.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Great thread, TSE!

    Glad you managed to wrest the joystick from the mad monk of Bedford....
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SMukesh said:

    TSE,Was this poll expected or a surprise?

    Both
    When did you hear about this poll?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ha!
    Ishmael_X said:

    I have died laughing.

    Posthumously    , let me quote a tweet from the owner of Britain's most-read political blog from only this afternoon:

    "What's important with polling at this stage is how it impacts on the overall narrative. It's less about the mathematics but the mood."

    How very true that is.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,043
    Off-topic:

    When going organic is not a good idea:

    http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2015/03/its-official-cat-litter-caused-a-drum-of-nuclear-waste-to-explode/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    With Scotland adjustments, this poll Baxtered gives:

    CON 301
    LAB 268
    LIB 12
    UKIP 0
    Green 1
    SNP 47
    PlaidC 3
    Minor 0
    N.Ire 18
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Just for fun, Baxtering this poll

    Con 313, Lab 295.

    This makes no adjustment for Lab's anticipated shellacking in Scotland.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    Freggles said:

    Now we just need Ashcroft to come along with a Lib Dem boost

    If there is one party that never seems to get a boost it is the Lib Dems, but OGH has assured me that Gerald Vernon Jackson can walk on water so I've slightly hedged in Portsmouth.
    Very wise.

    The LDs get boosts in Ashcroft seat polling when constituency question asked.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Sean_F said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    The second poll in two days to put the Cons on 36%.

    I think the Conservatives will poll 35-36% on the day.
    The caveat is two polls in two days also put them on 31/32%.

    The higher number for the Tories has historically been the most accurate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    SMukesh said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SMukesh said:

    TSE,Was this poll expected or a surprise?

    Both
    When did you hear about this poll?
    Friday
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    MikeSmithson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Freggles said:

    Now we just need Ashcroft to come along with a Lib Dem boost

    If there is one party that never seems to get a boost it is the Lib Dems, but OGH has assured me that Gerald Vernon Jackson can walk on water so I've slightly hedged in Portsmouth.
    Very wise.

    The LDs get boosts in Ashcroft seat polling when constituency question asked.
    How do you rate Hancock's chances, as an independent?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Freggles said:

    ComedyResults the new gold standard in 5....4....3....2....

    I think we'll have a "real" gold standard this week...
    Quite so.

    Tuesday morning at 9:00am. :innocent:

    Aren't you normally tucked up in bed with a cup of cocoa and a paperback by now?
    You are 132 you know....
    Impolite to refer to Mrs JackW as a paperback.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Charles said:

    Great thread, TSE!

    Glad you managed to wrest the joystick from the mad monk of Bedford....

    Mike wrote this thread.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    SeanT said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    The second poll in two days to put the Cons on 36%.

    I think the Conservatives will poll 35-36% on the day.
    Trouble is, Labour might easily poll the same, on the day, and with the bias in FPTP that still means (despite expected Scottish carnage) that Ed walks into number 10.
    I don't think Labour will get close to 35% on the day. I'm working off 35%-33%, in the Tories favour, at the moment, but it could be anything up to 36%-31% in the Tories favour.

    Very close on seats for the former, perhaps Labour even slightly ahead, but Cameron should stay in power on the latter.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SMukesh said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SMukesh said:

    TSE,Was this poll expected or a surprise?

    Both
    When did you hear about this poll?
    Friday
    Thanks.Perhaps the picture will be clearer by Tuesday when ICM is out.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    WOO! SWINGBACK, BABY! Con Maj nailed on! Osborne genius
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Gus is a tremendously good character - polite and cold. I noticed he appeared in a very similar vein in Revolution. His actor Giancarlo Esposito does great intimidation. Especially in specs. He's got that Gestapo feel about him.
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    @kle4 Have you tried Better Call Saul out? It was rather slow to begin with but seems to be finding its feet.

    Bosch is worth a go for cop show stuff too.

    Not seen BCS yet, I waited until Breaking Bad was almost over to watch that, and while I liked it and Walter White was a great character, truly great, I felt the praise on that one was overhyped. Since I figure it's bound to get several seasons at least, I might wait until next year, but it sounds promising.

    Just finished with Bosch actually, it wasn't stunning or anything, but it was a pretty good cop drama I felt and I'm a big fan of Titus Welliver whenever he pops up in things, it was nice to see him as the main character in something.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    Labour supporters and 'those-who-think-Labour-will-win'ers, thank you very much - it wasn't only Labour supporters being excited.

    Though I maintain my official comment that it was merely a reaction to the overall picture and that the Labour lead indicated at best the general trend of stasis continuing, for most people, not overreacting to one poll. Yeah, that's it.
    Gus Fring has to be *the* outstanding villain on TV.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited March 2015
    Ishmael_X said:

    I have died laughing.

    Posthumously, let me quote a tweet from the owner of Britain's most-read political blog from only this afternoon:

    "What's important with polling at this stage is how it impacts on the overall narrative. It's less about the mathematics but the mood."

    How very true that is.

    Dying laughing is better than your head exploding, a fate which awaits increasing numbers of don't knows over the coming weeks.
    As I said recently you cannot argue with a 4% lead. UKIP up a bit too.
    I have my doubts about polls with so many parties pushing their luck. Assuming yougov an outlier though the tory share has been resilient.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    SMukesh said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SMukesh said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SMukesh said:

    TSE,Was this poll expected or a surprise?

    Both
    When did you hear about this poll?
    Friday
    Thanks.Perhaps the picture will be clearer by Tuesday when ICM is out.
    I don't think we're due an ICM phone poll this week.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I wonder what YouGov will look like tomorrow.

    In the past the firm has tended to be the big magnifier. See trends first finding biggest figures. Happened with Cleggasm

    ComRes phone was random sample of all voters not just those on polling panels. There is strong bias to landline users who always answer their phones

    Which is right? I don't know.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited March 2015
    If Miliband's interview with Paxo helped Labour in YouGov's poll last night, I wonder if Lucy Powell's inept performance with Andrew Neill helped the Tories tonight, although it was probably aired after the ComRes poll had been completed. Second only to the Natalie Bennett disaster of a couple of weeks ago, it must be the car crash of GE 2015 so far.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That's a bit Scanners, isn't it?!
    Flightpath said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    I have died laughing.

    Posthumously, let me quote a tweet from the owner of Britain's most-read political blog from only this afternoon:

    "What's important with polling at this stage is how it impacts on the overall narrative. It's less about the mathematics but the mood."

    How very true that is.

    Dying laughing is better than your head exploding, a fate which awaits increasing numbers of don't knows over the coming weeks.
    As I said recently you cannot argue with a 4% lead. UKIP up a bit too.
    I have my doubts about polls with so many parties pushing their luck. Assuming yougov an outlier though the tory share has been resilient.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Anyone remember the last time Labour compiled a dossier?

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/582293415951470592
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MikeSmithson said:

    I wonder what YouGov will look like tomorrow.

    In the past the firm has tended to be the big magnifier. See trends first finding biggest figures. Happened with Cleggasm

    ComRes phone was random sample of all voters not just those on polling panels. There is strong bias to landline users who always answer their phones

    Which is right? I don't know.


    "ComRes phone was random sample of all voters not just those on polling panels."

    ComRes sounds more representative to me.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    The only consistency with recent polls is UKIP at 12/13%, which as a Kipper I would be happy with.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,339
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    24 hours ago

    SeanT Posts: 7,189
    March 28

    Cowardly Cameron missed a big opportunity IMO
    I agree entirely. I've been saying for yonks that Cameron should only refuse proper debates if he was minimum 65% sure of winning the election. The polls have never given him a reason to be that confident, all along they have implied he is the underdog, headed for (narrow) defeat, if anything, so I don't know why he refused. Cameron is the one that needed the gamechanger, not Miliband.

    Too late now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    The Guardian journalist Tom Clark has confirmed to me, there's not an ICM imminent.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Freggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    When is the 7 way ?

    Reckon that'll shape the campaign personally.

    Pulpstar said:

    When is the 7 way ?

    Reckon that'll shape the campaign personally.

    Thursday 8 till 10. Popcorn or Doritos?
    grmpf. Was planning to watch it, but now have to do a day trip to New York to meet some associates.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DanHannanMEP: Like the returning Bourbons, Labour have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. Except the deficit, obviously. http://t.co/cltaaeszMe
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    peter_from_putney said:

    If Miliband's interview with Paxo helped Labour in YouGov's poll last night, I wonder if Lucy Powell's inept performance with Andrew Neill helped the Tories today, although it was probably aired after the ComRes poll had been undetaken. Second only to the Natalie Bennett disaster of a couple of weeks ago, it must be the car crash of GE 2015 so far.

    I know what you mean, but who will have seen that?

    This may sound a bit arrogant (unintended) but as I'm very interested in politics, and a close follower of it, I have a simple rule of thumb: if I haven't personally seen it/noticed it, then the average Joe is unlikely to have done so.

    I hadn't, and didn't, and only knew about it from reading on here.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    edited March 2015
    SeanT said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    The futility of banging on about every poll as if it means something encapsulated in one day

    Like cheering throw ins at a football match

    Very true.
    isam said:

    The futility of banging on about every poll as if it means something encapsulated in one day

    Like cheering throw ins at a football match

    That's an excellent simile, btw. Lucid, witty, clever, revealing.

    You can obviously write.

    Thank you very much! From a best selling author no less, high praise, much appreciated

    More where that came from here...

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,564
    Twitter
    David Torrance ‏@davidtorrance now
    The SNP Will Have A “Very Significant” Role If Ed Miliband Is Prime Minister, Says Nicola Sturgeon http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/calling-the-tune … via @JamieRoss7
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Perhaps it was the offensive Labour mug ?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    SMukesh said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SMukesh said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SMukesh said:

    TSE,Was this poll expected or a surprise?

    Both
    When did you hear about this poll?
    Friday
    Thanks.Perhaps the picture will be clearer by Tuesday when ICM is out.
    Don't think we'll see an ICM till after Easter. The firm doesn't like polling in holiday periods because of sample distortion.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone remember the last time Labour compiled a dossier?

    twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/582293415951470592


    "Labour ... is publishing a dossier on Cameron's europhobic drift."

    Do they want to drive more Kippers back to the Conservatives?

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Totally OT but I think this is the forum to ask.

    I haven't been a gamer in 20yrs and used to love it. So what would you recommend as a platform and a handful of games to get me going again? I'm a scrolling shoot em up sort.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    MikeSmithson said:

    SMukesh said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SMukesh said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SMukesh said:

    TSE,Was this poll expected or a surprise?

    Both
    When did you hear about this poll?
    Friday
    Thanks.Perhaps the picture will be clearer by Tuesday when ICM is out.
    Don't think we'll see an ICM till after Easter. The firm doesn't like polling in holiday periods because of sample distortion.
    Tom Clark's confirmed that there ISN'T an ICM imminent.
This discussion has been closed.

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