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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big boost for the Tories in tonight’s ComRes phone poll

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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Kellner of YouGov: "Thursday night’s television performance — and… media coverage of it — has done Miliband a power of good." For 24 hours.
  • Anyone remember the last time Labour compiled a dossier?

    twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/582293415951470592


    "Labour ... is publishing a dossier on Cameron's europhobic drift."

    Do they want to drive more Kippers back to the Conservatives?

    The UK is 45 mins away from an EU exit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Plato said:

    Gus is a tremendously good character - polite and cold. I noticed he appeared in a very similar vein in Revolution. His actor Giancarlo Esposito does great intimidation. Especially in specs. He's got that Gestapo feel about him.

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    @kle4 Have you tried Better Call Saul out? It was rather slow to begin with but seems to be finding its feet.

    Bosch is worth a go for cop show stuff too.

    Not seen BCS yet, I waited until Breaking Bad was almost over to watch that, and while I liked it and Walter White was a great character, truly great, I felt the praise on that one was overhyped. Since I figure it's bound to get several seasons at least, I might wait until next year, but it sounds promising.

    Just finished with Bosch actually, it wasn't stunning or anything, but it was a pretty good cop drama I felt and I'm a big fan of Titus Welliver whenever he pops up in things, it was nice to see him as the main character in something.

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    Labour supporters and 'those-who-think-Labour-will-win'ers, thank you very much - it wasn't only Labour supporters being excited.

    Though I maintain my official comment that it was merely a reaction to the overall picture and that the Labour lead indicated at best the general trend of stasis continuing, for most people, not overreacting to one poll. Yeah, that's it.
    Gus Fring has to be *the* outstanding villain on TV.
    Yes, I have to admit that was one reason I was disappointed by his character on Once Upon A Time, he lacked that cool, intimidation factor. I know he has decent range, but that cold aura he can call upon, while being able to look and sound so normal at other times, is a rare talent.

    But then that show had many other problems - possibly the most inconsistent, rambling mythology and timeframe on TV, I am amazed it is still on the air. It's made by some of the guys from Lost, presumably the ones who came up with crazy ideas but without the ones who pulled it together into something approaching coherence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited March 2015
    Double post
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Great thread, TSE!

    Glad you managed to wrest the joystick from the mad monk of Bedford....

    Mike wrote this thread.
    I know :p
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    TSE,Was this poll expected or a surprise?

    Both
    When did you hear about this poll?
    Friday
    Thanks.Perhaps the picture will be clearer by Tuesday when ICM is out.
    I am not sure the picture will be clearer by May 8th.
  • Sean_F said:

    The second poll in two days to put the Cons on 36%.

    Very close in fact to the share of the vote which the Tories achieved in 2010 with time to improve on this yet!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RohitKachrooITV: New Comres/ITV News/Daily Mail poll suggests the post-Paxman bounce was for Conservatives - not Labour http://t.co/jilbuKujIj
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956

    Anyone remember the last time Labour compiled a dossier?

    If Labour are stupid enough to call it a dossier, and invite the obvious comparison and rebuttal, I will conclude that Lucy Powell is a plant.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Just been on the Lucy powell twitter site,she getting praised for her interview with Neil this morning,how deluded these people are.

    https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    David Torrance ‏@davidtorrance now
    The SNP Will Have A “Very Significant” Role If Ed Miliband Is Prime Minister, Says Nicola Sturgeon http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/calling-the-tune … via @JamieRoss7

    Obviously finally received her instructions from wee Eck.

    This in my view will be the main decider as voters stand in the booth gripping the stubby pencil. It will even surpass the NHS as the final consideration after all SLAB have stated the proceeds of the green envy tax of the South will pay for nurses in Scotland.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    WE know that part of Labour's better vote to seat conversion ha been a failure of Labour voters to turn out in safe Labour seats. This raises two issues in 2015. The first is that, if anything, they will turn out more often because the Tories are in power. Second if popular vote ("mandate") becomes an issue after the election, rather than seats, then this becomes a problem for Labour, not a good thing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    According to the front page of the i tomorrow, Labour are taking legal advice about ousting Cameron if the result is tight.

    I wonder what the precedent is...

    @suttonnick: Monday's i front page:
    Cameron warns of £3,000 Labour ‘tax bombshell’
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #GE2015 http://t.co/7F3vHqtLdP
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135

    The only consistency with recent polls is UKIP at 12/13%, which as a Kipper I would be happy with.

    UKIP on 13.8% this week in ELBOW, lowest since 24th August
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I stuck with OUAT for two seasons purely out of curiosity - the Queen is superb - I hated Snow and Charming. Hook and Rumpelstiltskin are excellent. I do like Mr Carlisle as an actor from Full Monty to Stargate to OUAT he never fails to impress.

    I thought the actor who played Peter Pan was very good - sinister in a playful way. Shame the plotting is so clunky.
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    Gus is a tremendously good character - polite and cold. I noticed he appeared in a very similar vein in Revolution. His actor Giancarlo Esposito does great intimidation. Especially in specs. He's got that Gestapo feel about him.

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    @kle4 Have you tried Better Call Saul out? It was rather slow to begin with but seems to be finding its feet.

    Bosch is worth a go for cop show stuff too.

    Not seen BCS yet, I waited until Breaking Bad was almost over to watch that, and while I liked it and Walter White was a great character, truly great, I felt the praise on that one was overhyped. Since I figure it's bound to get several seasons at least, I might wait until next year, but it sounds promising.

    Just finished with Bosch actually, it wasn't stunning or anything, but it was a pretty good cop drama I felt and I'm a big fan of Titus Welliver whenever he pops up in things, it was nice to see him as the main character in something.

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    Labour supporters and 'those-who-think-Labour-will-win'ers, thank you very much - it wasn't only Labour supporters being excited.

    Though I maintain my official comment that it was merely a reaction to the overall picture and that the Labour lead indicated at best the general trend of stasis continuing, for most people, not overreacting to one poll. Yeah, that's it.
    Gus Fring has to be *the* outstanding villain on TV.
    Yes, I have to admit that was one reason I was disappointed by his character on Once Upon A Time, he lacked that cool, intimidation factor. I know he has decent range, but that cold aura he can call upon, while being able to look and sound so normal at other times, is a rare talent.

    But then that show had many other problems - possibly the most inconsistent, rambling mythology and timeframe on TV, I am amazed it is still on the air. It's made by some of the guys from Lost, presumably the ones who came up with crazy ideas but without the ones who pulled it together into something approaching coherence.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Anyone remember the last time Labour compiled a dossier?

    twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/582293415951470592


    "Labour ... is publishing a dossier on Cameron's europhobic drift."

    Do they want to drive more Kippers back to the Conservatives?

    The UK is 45 mins away from an EU exit.
    Which story do you think the bbc will be running with,this or milibands donor thinks Cameron has a better economic policy.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @RohitKachrooITV: New Comres/ITV News/Daily Mail poll suggests the post-Paxman bounce was for Conservatives - not Labour http://t.co/jilbuKujIj

    Bloody hell, my wife was right.

    I obviously can't tell her :-)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Labour MPs are retweeting the poll in my timeline.

    No not that one, the YouGov...

    Not desperate, at all!
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Anyone remember the last time Labour compiled a dossier?

    twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/582293415951470592


    "Labour ... is publishing a dossier on Cameron's europhobic drift."

    Do they want to drive more Kippers back to the Conservatives?

    The UK is 45 mins away from an EU exit.
    Which story do you think the bbc will be running with,this or milibands donor thinks Cameron has a better economic policy.

    Miliband's donor seems to think the 50p tax rate affects the middle class... not sure Cameron will be quoting him exactly...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Plato said:

    Totally OT but I think this is the forum to ask.

    I haven't been a gamer in 20yrs and used to love it. So what would you recommend as a platform and a handful of games to get me going again? I'm a scrolling shoot em up sort.

    Well, it's not a shoot 'em up, but if you want the feel of a scrolling game from 20 years ago, last year's Shovel Knight was a joyous modern aping of old school Nes titles.

    The 'action-rpg' is the generic game genre of today I feel, games which are mostly based around combat in linear (but sometimes expansive) environments and levels, but with 'roel playing elements' in terms of upgrades based around whatever the main gimmick of the game is.

    I'd go with a PC, as you can get lots of small independent stuff as well as the big stuff easier, controller compatibility is much much better than it once was, games are usually cheaper too. Personally I'm a huge fan of shooters with indepth stories like the Mass Effect series, but the latest Tomb Raider and the Uncharted (on Playstation) series are great fun. Not side scrolly, but pretty linear and mostly to do with shooting, with some story but not as much as Mass Effect.

    It's a tough question though - I find my tastes in games today does not really match what I used to play 20 or even 10 years ago. It used to be sports games, JRPGs and platformers, but thesedays it's all story driven shooters, western RPGs, tactical combat games and strategy titles (if played on easy mode).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135

    FIELDWORK WAS YESTERDAY AND TODAY VIA PHONE

    HUZZAH! I can include in NEXT Sunday's ELBOW :cold_sweat:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    I was thinking that - plus of course Sean T........
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Big leads in the Midlands and SW for the Tories.
  • FIELDWORK WAS YESTERDAY AND TODAY VIA PHONE

    HUZZAH! I can include in NEXT Sunday's ELBOW :cold_sweat:
    In case you missed it, after Easter, YouGov are going 7 days a week.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Sean_F said:
    Exactly what my current (personal) spreadsheet analysis and forecast shows.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587

    Just been on the Lucy powell twitter site,she getting praised for her interview with Neil this morning,how deluded these people are.

    https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell

    Without looking at the comments, I predict the basis is that as Neil was 'attacking' her, clearly that shows she was making points Tories would hate and had him and the Tories rattled.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    edited March 2015
    Lets see where the polls settle down post-Easter. Until then, I'd be wary of treating anything with too much conviction. Even though Cameron wasn't at his best with the Paxman interview, including being floored by the number of food banks in the country, it looks as though it was still good enough to win comfortably over the inept Mr Miliband.

    By far the most interesting news today was this article:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3016399/Enoch-Powell-named-bishop-sex-abuse-probe-Scotland-Yard-investigate-satanic-abuse-claim-demands-filed-held-serving-MPs.html

    I still don't rule out some explosive allegations around the ongoing child abuse scandals emerging in the campaign...........watch this space
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    A few more pro-Tory polls and I think the market will move big-time.

    YouGov looking like the outlier.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited March 2015
    Scott_P said:

    According to the front page of the i tomorrow, Labour are taking legal advice about ousting Cameron if the result is tight.

    I wonder what the precedent is...

    @suttonnick: Monday's i front page:
    Cameron warns of £3,000 Labour ‘tax bombshell’
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #GE2015 http://t.co/7F3vHqtLdP

    Same as for Brown then in 2010. Is it not for the cabinet secretary to advise? Was Gus O Donnell previously. GOD as he was better known of course....
  • As the GE gets ever closer, I am reminded of one of StJohn of this Parish's favourite quotes:
    " And always keep a-hold of Nurse; For fear of finding something worse"
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    FIELDWORK WAS YESTERDAY AND TODAY VIA PHONE

    HUZZAH! I can include in NEXT Sunday's ELBOW :cold_sweat:
    In case you missed it, after Easter, YouGov are going 7 days a week.

    That is good news. It really solves the problem of the paucity of polls we have at the moment.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    chestnut said:

    Big leads in the Midlands and SW for the Tories.

    Is a Tory lead in the Midlands usual at all? I get confused by anything north of the Channel and south of the Wash, to my shame, so I don't know how good news such a report would be for them.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Fat_Steve said:

    So, on post-Paxman-Not-A-Real-Debate polling, The proportion of people favouring Cameron as best PM has increased, decreased for Ed Milliband?
    Didn't a contributor here some time ago suggest that "Ed Milliband on television is bad for Labour"?
    And did some contributors here furiously pour scorn on the idea?
    My recollection is a little hazy.

    Well, I recall being shot down by the right every time I point out that Cameron ought to want more debates against Miliband to drive home his advantage, not fewer.

    Already I fear this election is about who can make the bigger cods of their campaign: Lynton or Lucy?
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    I always wear two wrist watches just in case one of them is inaccurate.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SMukesh said:

    Embarassing.

    Your comments from yesterday?
  • FIELDWORK WAS YESTERDAY AND TODAY VIA PHONE

    HUZZAH! I can include in NEXT Sunday's ELBOW :cold_sweat:
    In case you missed it, after Easter, YouGov are going 7 days a week.

    That is good news. It really solves the problem of the paucity of polls we have at the moment.

    You can see why Mike needs a regular day off these days.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Already I fear this election is about who can make the bigger cods of their campaign: Lynton or Lucy?

    Lucy strong odds on favourite...
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    SeanT said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    The futility of banging on about every poll as if it means something encapsulated in one day

    Like cheering throw ins at a football match

    Very true.
    isam said:

    The futility of banging on about every poll as if it means something encapsulated in one day

    Like cheering throw ins at a football match

    That's an excellent simile, btw. Lucid, witty, clever, revealing.

    You can obviously write.

    A better simile for UKIP supporters would be, like pretending own goals don't count.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,958
    Centre-right tops the polls in the second round of local elections in France winning 65 councils, up from 41, the Socialists have lost around 30. The FN have also won significant numbers of seats, but no councils
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32104760
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    chestnut said:

    Big leads in the Midlands and SW for the Tories.

    Certainly seems like the Tories are doing better in those areas with London and Eastern England being the relative blackspots against Labour and UKIP respectively.

    What's the Scottish breakdown in this poll?
  • SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    24 hours ago

    SeanT Posts: 7,189
    March 28

    Cowardly Cameron missed a big opportunity IMO
    I agree entirely. I've been saying for yonks that Cameron should only refuse proper debates if he was minimum 65% sure of winning the election. The polls have never given him a reason to be that confident, all along they have implied he is the underdog, headed for (narrow) defeat, if anything, so I don't know why he refused. Cameron is the one that needed the gamechanger, not Miliband.

    Too late now.
    As I have already admitted, I am a halfwit.

    That said, the pleasure of this election is that any self-declared "pundit" who makes any definitive prediction is probably going to look a total tit about three days later.

    I can, nonetheless, still make one confident prediction. This election is going to be a lot more fun than 2005, surely the worst election any of us can remember, for so many reasons.
    2005 was entertaining up to a point.

    2001 was the worst one. Absolutely feck all happened.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Tories up 6% in England. They only led by 4.11% last time, if I've remembered that right...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Does anyone have specifics on the Indy story about Labour seeking advice if the result is tight?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @politicshome: Tomorrow’s Independent front page: Labour seeks legal advice to stop PM 'squatting' in No 10 http://t.co/m90VRz81S1
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    24 hours ago

    SeanT Posts: 7,189
    March 28

    Cowardly Cameron missed a big opportunity IMO
    I agree entirely. I've been saying for yonks that Cameron should only refuse proper debates if he was minimum 65% sure of winning the election. The polls have never given him a reason to be that confident, all along they have implied he is the underdog, headed for (narrow) defeat, if anything, so I don't know why he refused. Cameron is the one that needed the gamechanger, not Miliband.

    Too late now.
    As I have already admitted, I am a halfwit.

    That said, the pleasure of this election is that any self-declared "pundit" who makes any definitive prediction is probably going to look a total tit about three days later.

    I can, nonetheless, still make one confident prediction. This election is going to be a lot more fun than 2005, surely the worst election any of us can remember, for so many reasons.
    2005 results night was great fun with lots of different swings all over the place though. I agree the campaign was lousy, particularly the Tory dog whistle on immigration.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2015
    More people think Ed Miliband 'understands the real world' than Cameron does?

    I think I need to lie down in a darkened room...
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Interestingly those figures with Baxter and the proposed boundaries would give the Tories enough for a majority (once the Sinners are excluded). Of course they will in reality be far short. Nothing like the Tory propensity for shooting themselves in the foot.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135

    FIELDWORK WAS YESTERDAY AND TODAY VIA PHONE

    HUZZAH! I can include in NEXT Sunday's ELBOW :cold_sweat:
    In case you missed it, after Easter, YouGov are going 7 days a week.
    My ELBOW will be a little knackered :)
  • I expect tomorrow will bring good polling news for Labour.

    Populus up first is an online poll, and I think it'll be more YouGov than ComRes

    Lord A was tied last time, and has become a byword for volatility and we've not had a Lab lead with him for a while.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That's great - they still make Tomb Raider?? I played the first version of Doom and loved it. I come from the era of arcade games, Atari and Amiga...

    I was very good at linear games - and crap at ones with lots of stuff happening at the same time like Defender. Strategy games feel like hard work - I never saw the point of Sim City et al. Loads of levels suits me fine.

    Showing my age - my favourite games in my 20s were Fish! and Monkey Island... and Captain Blood...
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    Totally OT but I think this is the forum to ask.

    I haven't been a gamer in 20yrs and used to love it. So what would you recommend as a platform and a handful of games to get me going again? I'm a scrolling shoot em up sort.

    Well, it's not a shoot 'em up, but if you want the feel of a scrolling game from 20 years ago, last year's Shovel Knight was a joyous modern aping of old school Nes titles.

    The 'action-rpg' is the generic game genre of today I feel, games which are mostly based around combat in linear (but sometimes expansive) environments and levels, but with 'roel playing elements' in terms of upgrades based around whatever the main gimmick of the game is.

    I'd go with a PC, as you can get lots of small independent stuff as well as the big stuff easier, controller compatibility is much much better than it once was, games are usually cheaper too. Personally I'm a huge fan of shooters with indepth stories like the Mass Effect series, but the latest Tomb Raider and the Uncharted (on Playstation) series are great fun. Not side scrolly, but pretty linear and mostly to do with shooting, with some story but not as much as Mass Effect.

    It's a tough question though - I find my tastes in games today does not really match what I used to play 20 or even 10 years ago. It used to be sports games, JRPGs and platformers, but thesedays it's all story driven shooters, western RPGs, tactical combat games and strategy titles (if played on easy mode).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Tories up 36 to 32 *feels* about right. If you voted for them last time, why wouldn't you do so again? Labour, on the other hand, has done little to enthuse its potential vote, which will turn out largely in an effort to prevent a Tory majority. That's not enough. By a long chalk.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015

    SeanT said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    The futility of banging on about every poll as if it means something encapsulated in one day

    Like cheering throw ins at a football match

    Very true.
    isam said:

    The futility of banging on about every poll as if it means something encapsulated in one day

    Like cheering throw ins at a football match

    That's an excellent simile, btw. Lucid, witty, clever, revealing.

    You can obviously write.

    A better simile for UKIP supporters would be, like pretending own goals don't count.
    The problem with that one is that the SNP and UKIP breaking their personal bests by a huge margin are the only certainties in this GE

    Try again ting tong
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Sean_F said:
    Is there a decent base line of 2010 party shares by the same regions as used by ComRes?

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited March 2015

    I expect tomorrow will bring good polling news for Labour.

    Populus up first is an online poll, and I think it'll be more YouGov than ComRes

    Lord A was tied last time, and has become a byword for volatility and we've not had a Lab lead with him for a while.

    Maybe we'll see with these weekly ComRes phone polls that Ashcroft's polls aren't actually that much more volatile.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    Occurs to me I've not done a canvassing update recently. That's partly the absence of whimsical stories, but also that so little seems really to be happening. It's pretty intense at the moment, as you'd expect, with around 10% of the constituency (re)canvassed in the last few weeks, but people are generally saying the same as they said 6 months ago, with very few doubtfuls - when you come across a switcher either way it really catches your eye.

    My theory, FWIW, is that because we've all been in quasi-election mode since 2010 in this seat because it was so marginal, people made up their minds earlier than usual. That may well be different in a less obvious marginal.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited March 2015

    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    24 hours ago

    SeanT Posts: 7,189
    March 28

    Cowardly Cameron missed a big opportunity IMO
    I agree entirely. I've been saying for yonks that Cameron should only refuse proper debates if he was minimum 65% sure of winning the election. The polls have never given him a reason to be that confident, all along they have implied he is the underdog, headed for (narrow) defeat, if anything, so I don't know why he refused. Cameron is the one that needed the gamechanger, not Miliband.

    Too late now.
    As I have already admitted, I am a halfwit.

    That said, the pleasure of this election is that any self-declared "pundit" who makes any definitive prediction is probably going to look a total tit about three days later.

    I can, nonetheless, still make one confident prediction. This election is going to be a lot more fun than 2005, surely the worst election any of us can remember, for so many reasons.
    2005 was entertaining up to a point.

    2001 was the worst one. Absolutely feck all happened.

    Surely the 2001 election campaign saved the pound...

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1146210.stm
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    The Daily Mash is facing some real competition. :)
    STV - Daisley Mail: Revulsion at SNP plot to seize power by winning election
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That's a subsample I'll take :smile:
    chestnut said:

    Big leads in the Midlands and SW for the Tories.

  • Am I reading the tables correctly - the tories leading labour in Scotland 24/21
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Fat_Steve said:

    So, on post-Paxman-Not-A-Real-Debate polling, The proportion of people favouring Cameron as best PM has increased, decreased for Ed Milliband?
    Didn't a contributor here some time ago suggest that "Ed Milliband on television is bad for Labour"?
    And did some contributors here furiously pour scorn on the idea?
    My recollection is a little hazy.

    Well, I recall being shot down by the right every time I point out that Cameron ought to want more debates against Miliband to drive home his advantage, not fewer.

    Already I fear this election is about who can make the bigger cods of their campaign: Lynton or Lucy?
    The problem with Cameron even metaphorically skewering anybody even if they deserve it, is that they would get sympathy and Cameron would be called a bully. For Neil it's different.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    If Miliband's interview with Paxo helped Labour in YouGov's poll last night, I wonder if Lucy Powell's inept performance with Andrew Neill helped the Tories tonight, although it was probably aired after the ComRes poll had been completed. Second only to the Natalie Bennett disaster of a couple of weeks ago, it must be the car crash of GE 2015 so far.

    It was awful and exposed the absolute hollowness of Labour's economic plans.

    Back of a fag packet does not even begin to cover it.
  • Am I reading the tables correctly - the tories leading labour in Scotland 24/21

    Yup.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Scott_P said:

    @politicshome: Tomorrow’s Independent front page: Labour seeks legal advice to stop PM 'squatting' in No 10 http://t.co/m90VRz81S1

    Well they should know

    A MAN aged 59 was squatting in a luxury home near the Houses of Parliament last night.
    The squatter, named as a Mr Gordon Brown from Scotland, was refusing to budge from the Georgian townhouse in Downing Street, central London — denying entry to its rightful tenant.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/election2010/2964713/Gordon-Brown-squatting-in-No-10.html
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Occurs to me I've not done a canvassing update recently. That's partly the absence of whimsical stories, but also that so little seems really to be happening. It's pretty intense at the moment, as you'd expect, with around 10% of the constituency (re)canvassed in the last few weeks, but people are generally saying the same as they said 6 months ago, with very few doubtfuls - when you come across a switcher either way it really catches your eye.

    My theory, FWIW, is that because we've all been in quasi-election mode since 2010 in this seat because it was so marginal, people made up their minds earlier than usual. That may well be different in a less obvious marginal.

    I was helping in Eastbourne yesterday, and I have to say I didn't get the impression that the town is exactly consumed with election fever.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    24 hours ago

    SeanT Posts: 7,189
    March 28

    Cowardly Cameron missed a big opportunity IMO
    I agree entirely. I've been saying for yonks that Cameron should only refuse proper debates if he was minimum 65% sure of winning the election. The polls have never given him a reason to be that confident, all along they have implied he is the underdog, headed for (narrow) defeat, if anything, so I don't know why he refused. Cameron is the one that needed the gamechanger, not Miliband.

    Too late now.
    As I have already admitted, I am a halfwit.

    That said, the pleasure of this election is that any self-declared "pundit" who makes any definitive prediction is probably going to look a total tit about three days later.

    I can, nonetheless, still make one confident prediction. This election is going to be a lot more fun than 2005, surely the worst election any of us can remember, for so many reasons.
    2005 was entertaining up to a point.

    2001 was the worst one. Absolutely feck all happened.
    Actually, I now realise I meant to say 2001, not 2005. 2001 was dull, dull, dull.

    In my defence I have just spent the day solo-parenting two very excitable eight year olds (my eldest and her friend) to, from and around Legoland, during several wintry monsoons.

    "F*cking Spavined" doesn't begin to describe my state of mental exhaustion.

    Tomorrow: Woburn Safari Park.
    I sympathise.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    David Torrance ‏@davidtorrance now
    The SNP Will Have A “Very Significant” Role If Ed Miliband Is Prime Minister, Says Nicola Sturgeon http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/calling-the-tune … via @JamieRoss7

    It's almost as if she does not want Ed to be PM.

    In fact, from SNP and Scottish independence point of view, the best result would be a minority Conservative government but with SNP holding the balance of power [ like the LDs had in 2010 ]. The Tories then would almost push them towards independence.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Am I reading the tables correctly - the tories leading labour in Scotland 24/21

    *cough*ScottishTorySurge*cough*
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Plato said:

    That's great - they still make Tomb Raider?? I played the first version of Doom and loved it. I come from the era of arcade games, Atari and Amiga...

    I was very good at linear games - and crap at ones with lots of stuff happening at the same time like Defender. Strategy games feel like hard work - I never saw the point of Sim City et al. Loads of levels suits me fine.

    Showing my age - my favourite games in my 20s were Fish! and Monkey Island... and Captain Blood...

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    Totally OT but I think this is the forum to ask.

    I haven't been a gamer in 20yrs and used to love it. So what would you recommend as a platform and a handful of games to get me going again? I'm a scrolling shoot em up sort.

    Well, it's not a shoot 'em up, but if you want the feel of a scrolling game from 20 years ago, last year's Shovel Knight was a joyous modern aping of old school Nes titles.

    The 'action-rpg' is the generic game genre of today I feel, games which are mostly based around combat in linear (but sometimes expansive) environments and levels, but with 'roel playing elements' in terms of upgrades based around whatever the main gimmick of the game is.

    I'd go with a PC, as you can get lots of small independent stuff as well as the big stuff easier, controller compatibility is much much better than it once was, games are usually cheaper too. Personally I'm a huge fan of shooters with indepth stories like the Mass Effect series, but the latest Tomb Raider and the Uncharted (on Playstation) series are great fun. Not side scrolly, but pretty linear and mostly to do with shooting, with some story but not as much as Mass Effect.

    It's a tough question though - I find my tastes in games today does not really match what I used to play 20 or even 10 years ago. It used to be sports games, JRPGs and platformers, but thesedays it's all story driven shooters, western RPGs, tactical combat games and strategy titles (if played on easy mode).
    Sim City, Civilization, Railroad Tycoon and other strategy games as well as Flight Sims were always my favourite games - the more strategy the better. Very time consuming, but lots of fun!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Whilst incredibly unlikely, it would be enormously entertaining if the Tories had more MPs in Scotland than Labour come May 8th
    Scott_P said:

    Am I reading the tables correctly - the tories leading labour in Scotland 24/21

    *cough*ScottishTorySurge*cough*
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited March 2015
    @toadmeister: Sturgeon tells @BuzzFeedNews the SNP will have “very significant" role if Miliband wins. Whatever could she mean? twitter.com/toadmeister/status/582299423608299521/photo/1
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    24 hours ago

    SeanT Posts: 7,189
    March 28

    Cowardly Cameron missed a big opportunity IMO
    I agree entirely. I've been saying for yonks that Cameron should only refuse proper debates if he was minimum 65% sure of winning the election. The polls have never given him a reason to be that confident, all along they have implied he is the underdog, headed for (narrow) defeat, if anything, so I don't know why he refused. Cameron is the one that needed the gamechanger, not Miliband.

    Too late now.
    As I have already admitted, I am a halfwit.

    That said, the pleasure of this election is that any self-declared "pundit" who makes any definitive prediction is probably going to look a total tit about three days later.

    I can, nonetheless, still make one confident prediction. This election is going to be a lot more fun than 2005, surely the worst election any of us can remember, for so many reasons.
    2005 was entertaining up to a point.

    2001 was the worst one. Absolutely feck all happened.
    Actually, I now realise I meant to say 2001, not 2005. 2001 was dull, dull, dull.

    In my defence I have just spent the day solo-parenting two very excitable eight year olds (my eldest and her friend) to, from and around Legoland, during several wintry monsoons.

    "F*cking Spavined" doesn't begin to describe my state of mental exhaustion.

    Tomorrow: Woburn Safari Park.
    I sympathise.
    I've just found out that grandchild number seven is on the way, bear in mind that we look after them in school holidays etc and I pick two of them up from school three days a week, I'm getting too old for this lark!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    SeanT said:

    Furthermore, this is the first election in my adult life when I genuinely have almost no idea, as to who might win, and form a government.

    If you put a Purdey to my forehead and said "PREDICT" I would still go for a Miliband plurality, but only if you really squeezed the trigger.

    And even the 70s elex (when I was but a boy) didn't have so many wild variables, from Scotland to UKIP.

    In which case, is this the most unpredictable election in the history of British parliamentary democracy, post universal suffrage? Or maybe since meaningful general elections began?

    What did people think in 1992? Too young to remember!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Are you a chess player too? I was ace at backgammon but can't play chess to save my life.
    hunchman said:

    Plato said:

    That's great - they still make Tomb Raider?? I played the first version of Doom and loved it. I come from the era of arcade games, Atari and Amiga...

    I was very good at linear games - and crap at ones with lots of stuff happening at the same time like Defender. Strategy games feel like hard work - I never saw the point of Sim City et al. Loads of levels suits me fine.

    Showing my age - my favourite games in my 20s were Fish! and Monkey Island... and Captain Blood...

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    Totally OT but I think this is the forum to ask.

    I haven't been a gamer in 20yrs and used to love it. So what would you recommend as a platform and a handful of games to get me going again? I'm a scrolling shoot em up sort.

    Well, it's not a shoot 'em up, but if you want the feel of a scrolling game from 20 years ago, last year's Shovel Knight was a joyous modern aping of old school Nes titles.

    The 'action-rpg' is the generic game genre of today I feel, games which are mostly based around combat in linear (but sometimes expansive) environments and levels, but with 'roel playing elements' in terms of upgrades based around whatever the main gimmick of the game is.

    I'd go with a PC, as you can get lots of small independent stuff as well as the big stuff easier, controller compatibility is much much better than it once was, games are usually cheaper too. Personally I'm a huge fan of shooters with indepth stories like the Mass Effect series, but the latest Tomb Raider and the Uncharted (on Playstation) series are great fun. Not side scrolly, but pretty linear and mostly to do with shooting, with some story but not as much as Mass Effect.

    It's a tough question though - I find my tastes in games today does not really match what I used to play 20 or even 10 years ago. It used to be sports games, JRPGs and platformers, but thesedays it's all story driven shooters, western RPGs, tactical combat games and strategy titles (if played on easy mode).
    Sim City, Civilization, Railroad Tycoon and other strategy games as well as Flight Sims were always my favourite games - the more strategy the better. Very time consuming, but lots of fun!
  • The Times also has the story on the front of Indy.

    Labour is exploring whether it could oust Mr Cameron earlier than the start of June by putting down a confidence motion once parliament assembles. However, disputed interpretations of the Fixed Term Parliament Act mean there is deep confusion over this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited March 2015
    Plato said:

    That's great - they still make Tomb Raider?? I played the first version of Doom and loved it. I come from the era of arcade games, Atari and Amiga...

    I was very good at linear games - and crap at ones with lots of stuff happening at the same time like Defender. Strategy games feel like hard work - I never saw the point of Sim City et al. Loads of levels suits me fine.

    Showing my age - my favourite games in my 20s were Fish! and Monkey Island... and Captain Blood...

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    Totally OT but I think this is the forum to ask.

    I haven't been a gamer in 20yrs and used to love it. So what would you recommend as a platform and a handful of games to get me going again? I'm a scrolling shoot em up sort.

    Well, it'smode).
    This is actually probably the best time to get back into gaming - loads of nostalgia for older titles and big and small games trying to capture that essence with updated hardware, which can ease a transition into the very modern stuff.

    I never really liked the old Tomb Raiders, but the latest rebooted version (just called 'Tomb Raider' to confuse matters) was a brilliant game. Strategy games I always love the idea of, but am not patient enough to learn how to play well. Oh well.

    I believe there is a new version of Doom coming out as it happens - though unlike Tomb Raider it hasn't had a dozen iterations since the earlier titles, it's just taken this long to get back to it.

    If you liked turn based tactical combat at all, I'd recommend Xcom:Enemy Unknown - on the easy and normal settings far less challenging than the games of the 80s it spawned from, and simple enough for a newbie like me to get into it. Great fun, I've logged something like 150 hours with it.

    Games are great things for feeling older than you are I find - my first console was a Nes, but people only 5 years younger than me say they only remember things from the Playstation 1 era, makes me feel like a caveman by comparison. :)
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Scott_P said:

    Am I reading the tables correctly - the tories leading labour in Scotland 24/21

    *cough*ScottishTorySurge*cough*
    Truly that is a horrifying picture for Labour if that is even remotely correct given their previous position.
    If nothing else that must fill their election team with complete dread.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,542
    surbiton said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    David Torrance ‏@davidtorrance now
    The SNP Will Have A “Very Significant” Role If Ed Miliband Is Prime Minister, Says Nicola Sturgeon http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/calling-the-tune … via @JamieRoss7

    It's almost as if she does not want Ed to be PM.

    In fact, from SNP and Scottish independence point of view, the best result would be a minority Conservative government but with SNP holding the balance of power [ like the LDs had in 2010 ]. The Tories then would almost push them towards independence.
    The SNP's behaviour makes no sense as a negotiating strategy.

    As a means of driving a wedge between England and Scotland, it makes excellent sense.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    EPG said:

    SeanT said:

    Furthermore, this is the first election in my adult life when I genuinely have almost no idea, as to who might win, and form a government.

    If you put a Purdey to my forehead and said "PREDICT" I would still go for a Miliband plurality, but only if you really squeezed the trigger.

    And even the 70s elex (when I was but a boy) didn't have so many wild variables, from Scotland to UKIP.

    In which case, is this the most unpredictable election in the history of British parliamentary democracy, post universal suffrage? Or maybe since meaningful general elections began?

    What did people think in 1992? Too young to remember!
    Everyone thought Kinnock would win.

    The most amusing thing I remember about it was the pundits who before the election near-unanimously thought it would be a Labour victory, then did a reverse ferret after the election, writing articles saying that Labour were finished and would never win an election again. And then came 1997...

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: Declarations by SNP they *will* back Labour in Queens Speech vote not enough to put EM in No10 http://t.co/spKcQ1IMdA http://t.co/spKcQ1IMdA
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,542

    I expect tomorrow will bring good polling news for Labour.

    Populus up first is an online poll, and I think it'll be more YouGov than ComRes

    Lord A was tied last time, and has become a byword for volatility and we've not had a Lab lead with him for a while.

    OTOH, we've not had a Con lead with Populus since August.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    Looking at Table 3/2

    It seems as if almost as many 2010 LD voters have switched to Con as Lab. Surprising. But small subset.

    However remember the MOE on sample size of 900. Ditto with the YouGov Poll. Both results are +/- 3% for share and +/- 6% for gap. This means there is a 95% chance that the actual figure is within that range and a 5% chance that it is not.

    Keep calm and carry on.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    That's great - they still make Tomb Raider?? I played the first version of Doom and loved it. I come from the era of arcade games, Atari and Amiga...

    I was very good at linear games - and crap at ones with lots of stuff happening at the same time like Defender. Strategy games feel like hard work - I never saw the point of Sim City et al. Loads of levels suits me fine.

    Showing my age - my favourite games in my 20s were Fish! and Monkey Island... and Captain Blood...

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    Totally OT but I think this is the forum to ask.

    I haven't been a gamer in 20yrs and used to love it. So what would you recommend as a platform and a handful of games to get me going again? I'm a scrolling shoot em up sort.

    Well, it'smode).
    This is actually probably the best time to get back into gaming - loads of nostalgia for older titles and big and small games trying to capture that essence with updated hardware, which can ease a transition into the very modern stuff.

    I never really liked the old Tomb Raiders, but the latest rebooted version (just called 'Tomb Raider' to confuse matters) was a brilliant game. Strategy games I always love the idea of, but am not patient enough to learn how to play well. Oh well.

    I believe there is a new version of Doom coming out as it happens - though unlike Tomb Raider it hasn't had a dozen iterations since the earlier titles, it's just taken this long to get back to it.

    If you liked turn based tactical combat at all, I'd recommend Xcom:Enemy Unknown - on the easy and normal settings far less challenging than the games of the 80s it spawned from, and simple enough for a newbie like me to get into it. Great fun, I've logged something like 150 hours with it.

    Games are great things for feeling older than you are I find - my first console was a Nes, but people only 5 years younger than me say they only remember things from the Playstation 1 era, makes me feel like a caveman by comparison. :)
    Doom was awesome. Play in darkened room and That music " Darrrrr Da" that used to increase in speed as something crept up on you used to send tingles down my spine.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2015
    Regions (and 2010):

    Scotland: C 24 L 21 SNP 39 (C16 L42 SNP20) - Lab To Con 14.5
    Nth East: C 21 L 58 (C24 L 44) - Con To Lab 8.5
    Nth West: C 30 L 42 (C32 L 40) - Con To Lab 2
    Yorks/H: C 44 L 35 ( C 33 L 35) - Lab to Con 5.5
    W Mids: C 37 L 29 (C 40 L 31) - Con to lab 0.5
    E Mids: C 41 L 29 (C 41 L 30) - Lab to Con 0.5
    E Anglia: C 33 L 34 (C 47 L 20) - Con to lab 14
    Wales: C 24 L 35 (C26 L 36) - Con to lab 0.5
    London: C 33 L 44 (C35 L 37) - Con to lab 4.5
    Sth east: C 50 L 22 (C 50 L16) - Con to lab 3.0
    Sth west: C 39 L13 LD 21 (C 43 L 15) Con to Lab 3.0 ( LD to Con 5.0)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I played the first version of Pong. When it became Red Square Shoots Green Square = we were impressed.

    Things have moved on a lot since loading a game from a cassette tape...
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    That's great - they still make Tomb Raider?? I played the first version of Doom and loved it. I come from the era of arcade games, Atari and Amiga...

    I was very good at linear games - and crap at ones with lots of stuff happening at the same time like Defender. Strategy games feel like hard work - I never saw the point of Sim City et al. Loads of levels suits me fine.

    Showing my age - my favourite games in my 20s were Fish! and Monkey Island... and Captain Blood...

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    Totally OT but I think this is the forum to ask.

    I haven't been a gamer in 20yrs and used to love it. So what would you recommend as a platform and a handful of games to get me going again? I'm a scrolling shoot em up sort.

    Well, it'smode).
    This is actually probably the best time to get back into gaming - loads of nostalgia for older titles and big and small games trying to capture that essence with updated hardware, which can ease a transition into the very modern stuff.

    I never really liked the old Tomb Raiders, but the latest rebooted version (just called 'Tomb Raider' to confuse matters) was a brilliant game. Strategy games I always love the idea of, but am not patient enough to learn how to play well. Oh well.

    I believe there is a new version of Doom coming out as it happens - though unlike Tomb Raider it hasn't had a dozen iterations since the earlier titles, it's just taken this long to get back to it.

    If you liked turn based tactical combat at all, I'd recommend Xcom:Enemy Unknown - on the easy and normal settings far less challenging than the games of the 80s it spawned from, and simple enough for a newbie like me to get into it. Great fun, I've logged something like 150 hours with it.

    Games are great things for feeling older than you are I find - my first console was a Nes, but people only 5 years younger than me say they only remember things from the Playstation 1 era, makes me feel like a caveman by comparison. :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    The Times also has the story on the front of Indy.

    Labour is exploring whether it could oust Mr Cameron earlier than the start of June by putting down a confidence motion once parliament assembles. However, disputed interpretations of the Fixed Term Parliament Act mean there is deep confusion over this.

    What a crap piece of legislations. Unfortunately, I think they've let the cat out of the bag with this one; I'm not sure it is possible to reinstate a royal prerogative, even by repealing the act which removed it originally.
  • EPG said:

    SeanT said:

    Furthermore, this is the first election in my adult life when I genuinely have almost no idea, as to who might win, and form a government.

    If you put a Purdey to my forehead and said "PREDICT" I would still go for a Miliband plurality, but only if you really squeezed the trigger.

    And even the 70s elex (when I was but a boy) didn't have so many wild variables, from Scotland to UKIP.

    In which case, is this the most unpredictable election in the history of British parliamentary democracy, post universal suffrage? Or maybe since meaningful general elections began?

    What did people think in 1992? Too young to remember!
    Everyone thought Kinnock would win.

    The most amusing thing I remember about it was the pundits who before the election near-unanimously thought it would be a Labour victory, then did a reverse ferret after the election, writing articles saying that Labour were finished and would never win an election again. And then came 1997...

    I recently watched the 1987 General Election night coverage.

    The pundits on the BBC all agreed that Labour had the best campaign, and we were on course for a hung parliament.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Simon Heffer really put his neck on the line in this column.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:

    Am I reading the tables correctly - the tories leading labour in Scotland 24/21

    *cough*ScottishTorySurge*cough*
    http://iaindale.com/posts/2015/03/29/tales-from-an-edinburgh-taxi
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This is the key bit of the Times story, if Cameron gets an extra month in No 10
    "Meanwhile, members of Mr Miliband’s office have assembled the contact details of returning Labour MPs and candidates likely to win in order to stop any attempt to oust the party leader. “Ed is trying to work out how to save his own skin if he does badly at this election,” said one Labour source. “People should realise his team are gaming how they can work alongside the SNP to oust David Cameron, while denying in public this will be needed.”"
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    OK so is it phone pollsters or online that are correct.

    You Gov seemed such an outlier post the 36/34 of Thursday and with about 5% of the nation watching the "debate"

    We need more polling data, but FWIW and only IMHO, if you want to stick your money on the outcome, watch the phone pollsters first b4 looking at anything else.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587

    Occurs to me I've not done a canvassing update recently. .

    More importantly, did you PPC work allow enough time to play Dragon Age Inquisition? The people must know!

    Sorry, combing gaming, tv shows and political minutiae is messing with my head a little.

    Am I reading the tables correctly - the tories leading labour in Scotland 24/21

    Ha, what a hilarious result that would be, regardless of seat configuration afterwards. This election does promise some amusing possibilities in localised areas, even if some of the outcomes are not as amusing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    JonathanD said:

    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    24 hours ago

    SeanT Posts: 7,189
    March 28

    Cowardly Cameron missed a big opportunity IMO
    I agree entirely. I've been saying for yonks that Cameron should only refuse proper debates if he was minimum 65% sure of winning the election. The polls have never given him a reason to be that confident, all along they have implied he is the underdog, headed for (narrow) defeat, if anything, so I don't know why he refused. Cameron is the one that needed the gamechanger, not Miliband.

    Too late now.
    As I have already admitted, I am a halfwit.

    That said, the pleasure of this election is that any self-declared "pundit" who makes any definitive prediction is probably going to look a total tit about three days later.

    I can, nonetheless, still make one confident prediction. This election is going to be a lot more fun than 2005, surely the worst election any of us can remember, for so many reasons.
    2005 was entertaining up to a point.

    2001 was the worst one. Absolutely feck all happened.

    Surely the 2001 election campaign saved the pound...

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1146210.stm
    What's interesting about that article is (if you read it) that the policy is not very different from Cameron's Conservatives.

    In fact, if you look at the 2001 manifesto, it's all there: free schools, married couples tax allowance, keep pound but stay in EU, public spending in line with economic growth/what we can afford, trans-Atlantic free trade area, right to choose hospital, rise in state pension, cuts on taxes, EVFEL etc.

    Crime seems a little tighter, and there's a commitment to fund defence properly, renegotiate CAP/CFP, but that's about it. Asylum is mentioned, but mass immigration isn't, as it predates the real realisation of the numbers arriving into the UK.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    Would it cruel of me to start copying and pasting what some of the PB's most excitable Labour supporters were posting exactly 24 hours ago?

    24 hours ago

    SeanT Posts: 7,189
    March 28

    Cowardly Cameron missed a big opportunity IMO
    I agree entirely. I've been saying for yonks that Cameron should only refuse proper debates if he was minimum 65% sure of winning the election. The polls have never given him a reason to be that confident, all along they have implied he is the underdog, headed for (narrow) defeat, if anything, so I don't know why he refused. Cameron is the one that needed the gamechanger, not Miliband.

    Too late now.
    As I have already admitted, I am a halfwit.

    That said, the pleasure of this election is that any self-declared "pundit" who makes any definitive prediction is probably going to look a total tit about three days later.

    I can, nonetheless, still make one confident prediction. This election is going to be a lot more fun than 2005, surely the worst election any of us can remember, for so many reasons.
    Agreed
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    RobD said:

    The Times also has the story on the front of Indy.

    Labour is exploring whether it could oust Mr Cameron earlier than the start of June by putting down a confidence motion once parliament assembles. However, disputed interpretations of the Fixed Term Parliament Act mean there is deep confusion over this.

    What a crap piece of legislations. Unfortunately, I think they've let the cat out of the bag with this one; I'm not sure it is possible to reinstate a royal prerogative, even by repealing the act which removed it originally.
    I don't think the Fixed Term Act make any difference one way or the other to possible post-election horse-trading.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    RobD said:

    The Times also has the story on the front of Indy.

    Labour is exploring whether it could oust Mr Cameron earlier than the start of June by putting down a confidence motion once parliament assembles. However, disputed interpretations of the Fixed Term Parliament Act mean there is deep confusion over this.

    What a crap piece of legislations. Unfortunately, I think they've let the cat out of the bag with this one; I'm not sure it is possible to reinstate a royal prerogative, even by repealing the act which removed it originally.
    I don't think the Fixed Term Act make any difference one way or the other to possible post-election horse-trading.
    I think they are worried about the period after a vote of no confidence. The Fixed Term Act means that a dissolution is not immediate after that.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Occurs to me I've not done a canvassing update recently. That's partly the absence of whimsical stories, but also that so little seems really to be happening. It's pretty intense at the moment, as you'd expect, with around 10% of the constituency (re)canvassed in the last few weeks, but people are generally saying the same as they said 6 months ago, with very few doubtfuls - when you come across a switcher either way it really catches your eye.

    My theory, FWIW, is that because we've all been in quasi-election mode since 2010 in this seat because it was so marginal, people made up their minds earlier than usual. That may well be different in a less obvious marginal.

    But what's your lead NPEXMP. is it still the 8% you were posting on here a month or so ago... and in any event, I think its implausible that in such a marginal that people have already made up their minds, but we will see..
  • Scott_P said:

    This is the key bit of the Times story, if Cameron gets an extra month in No 10

    "Meanwhile, members of Mr Miliband’s office have assembled the contact details of returning Labour MPs and candidates likely to win in order to stop any attempt to oust the party leader. “Ed is trying to work out how to save his own skin if he does badly at this election,” said one Labour source. “People should realise his team are gaming how they can work alongside the SNP to oust David Cameron, while denying in public this will be needed.”"
    Seems as if they are expecting defeat and what kind of PR is it to be seeking legal advice on evicting David Cameron when they are seeking at least most seats
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