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Shall I break my vow not to buy a Murdoch paper after seeing that ST headline ?0
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OT-ish remember the Racing Post's election special on Monday will hit the iPad version around 8pm Sunday, and bookmakers may well adjust their prices Sunday to tidy them up for the adverts.0
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Patrick O'Flynn trolling Rachel Reeves.Scott_P said:Rachel Reeves just retweeted the Labour campaign pledges. Except one. Can anyone guess which one is missing?
@Ed_Miliband you forgot the first two words of copy on your ad, Ed: "Almost nonexistent..."
— Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) March 28, 20150 -
If it had been the other way round, you wouldn't have mentioned the 95% figure.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: Poll: 49% of people called TV debate for Miliband. 95% of population didn't watch it.
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Keep betting on that please at 1.49 (crazy price,)kjohnw said:
its just one poll, the campaign hasn't really started yet, most people are looking forward to the easter break, we have 6 weeks to go yet, manifestos to be launched, april pay packets to be opened, and everyone I speak to cant stand EdM and the thought of the SNP dictating UK government scares people, Tories largest party nailed on!SeanT said:
I think your EICIPM forecast is good. For the moment I stand by my (long held) belief that it will be a Miliband plurality, not majority (thanks to Scotland), but, with a poll like this, who knows.bigjohnowls said:TBF I think this bounce potentially short lived and 2 parties neck and neck in % terms.
Still good for my EICIPM forecast
The problem for Tories is that I can't see a gamechanger from here. What will it be? The next two debates are specifically designed (by the Tories!) to have no effect. Unless Miliband collapses in the Oppo debate, pincered by Farage and Sturgeon?
Wonder what it will drift to if we get anymore polls like this one.
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Is this an inappropriate moment to point to Clegg/LD first on 33% with YG after the first debate in 2010?
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That's still pretty damn good for Ed.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: Poll: 49% of people called TV debate for Miliband. 95% of population didn't watch it.
Assume all those 5% are voters. Non voters aren't going to bother.
So then you have that 5% becoming 7% (0.05/0.7). 34% of those will just vote Labour anyway.
15% of the 7% becomes 1% on a poll, and it is not Ed that needs to win votes at this point to get into No 10.0 -
@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh0
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Statistically Thursday night was a dead heat.
The immediate ICM poll may have shown a small Cameron advantage but statistically speaking the lead was irrelevant. As subsequent reaction has shown, in the final telling people thought it was a draw.
And that's a poorer result right now for the Tories than Labour.0 -
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Always the key point whenever people make the stunning revelation that most people didn't watch/hear about something that. Always true, but irrelevant as a result - some things do break through after all, so why be so selective, the reason being as you point out.surbiton said:
If it had been the other way round, you wouldn't have mentioned the 95% figure.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: Poll: 49% of people called TV debate for Miliband. 95% of population didn't watch it.
We'll be seeing it a lot in the coming weeks.0 -
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 35m35 minutes ago
@craigawoodhouse @georgeeaton @YouGov @Election4castUK Totally implausible.
Dan Unmystic Meg in denial0 -
But most of the spinning, word of mouth, and indeed snap polls spoke of a Cameron win. There must be something else going on, but what?SeanT said:
You have a point, but it doesn't work quite like that. This is mass psychology, not sports betting.isam said:It is simple, and explainable in numbers to anyone who understands betting
Cameron was expected to win by 24
He won by 5
Imagine a Rugby match with a 24pt favourite in the handicap market that wins 52-47
Many of those watching must have priced in expectations, subconsciously, and wondered if Miliband could do it, then still decided Nah, Cameron's better. Recall that the ICM poll of viewers was heavily Labour weighted, yet they still preferred Cameron? The number of prior undecideds was tiny, and does not explain this movement
I reckon kle gets it right. Miliband has gained from the spinning and word of mouth that has followed, as with the Cleggasm, but on a smaller scale.0 -
Labour probably so desperate for the money that they think the downside is worth it. Alternatively they've had confirmation from the BBC that the BBC won't mention it.Tykejohnno said:
Keep on buying them my friends,more money in the labour coffers.weejonnie said:Labour Mugs back up again: 396 left
https://shop.labour.org.uk/products/pledge-4-mug-controls-on-immigration-551/#product_description0 -
Looks like The Times has well and truly started hedging it`s bets.
That`s the first Labour supportive headline I have seen in the last 8 years in The Times.0 -
Is anybody on here willing to back labour at evens to get 36%? (Northern Ireland excluded)
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I've put the S Times front page in the headerScott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
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On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)
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So roughly ten per cent of people felt that Miliband won when they expected Cameron to do so. Thereby improving their opinion of the Labour leader.isam said:Survation had people expecting Cameron to "win" byt 62-38
So 54-46 and 51-49 were a case of Miliband over performing, hence the feeling he had "won"
In effect the handicap market was Cameron -24, and the result was Cameron by 2 or 8. So failing to cover the handicap by around 19
A chance of Farage and other leader debate bounces to come to shake things up some more.0 -
GeoffM said:
Do you think the vast majority follow these ? They are more worried that a X-factor judge is being sacked !Flightpath said:The fieldwork came in the middle of the (totally invented) 12 billion cuts farrago and the assertion that the tories would cut everything imaginable and more beside as long as it only affected dying babies and bereaved grandmothers. 20 tory MPs voting to kiss Bercow's backside might have had some influence.
The interviews had long gone and are now meaningless except for the false folk memory ascribed to them according to whoever's preference.
Labour's hokey-cokey with mugs will not impinge on anyone.0 -
Pointless Lab most seats at 3.2 and Ed next PM 2.54 looking good in my GE 2015 bookchestnut said:Is anybody on here willing to back labour at evens to get 36%? (Northern Ireland excluded)
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Has the Conservative campaign started yet? I hadn't noticed to be honest....Tykejohnno said:
On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)
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Because that's what they got in the poll and loads on here are rejoicing about it. Personally I think anyone with a large amount staked on the basis of these polls is more deluded than MilibandPulpstar said:
Why on earth would anyone back that ?chestnut said:Is anybody on here willing to back labour at evens to get 36%? (Northern Ireland excluded)
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No,giving Cameron a kicking to sharpen up his performance and his parties GE campaign.SMukesh said:Looks like The Times has well and truly started hedging it`s bets.
That`s the first Labour supportive headline I have seen in the last 8 years in The Times.
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Would Ed get to keep his job under those circumstances?Freggles said:
I actually think the best thing for Ed would be to miss out by about five seats on largest party, abstain on Cameron Queens speech to respect the public view, and get to humiliate a Tory minority government for a year or so before pulling the plug because they are unable to govern.kle4 said:1) Cannot trust this polling, doesn't make sense
2) Nobody watches these things/pays attentions to polls
3) In X of days [pick arbitrary point] the real choice will be clear to people and then things will change
4) It's a good thing for X, even though it looks bad for X
All could be true and show those reacting for fools in the end, but are usually put forth en mass when they have to be true to have any hope.0 -
Ed is
crapCool.0 -
Obviously worrying for Con.
But one straw to cling to is not just that few watched the debate but more importantly it dropped out of the news cycle pretty quickly afterwards. On the Thur 10pm bulletins it just got a "general mention" (ie nothing positive for either leader) and within 24 hours it was already fading.
So I find it hard to believe it can have made much difference, certainly once 72 hours have passed.0 -
Tories considering fresh assault on benefits system by taxing hand-outs for disabled Conservatives promised to cut £12billion from the welfare bill by 2017/18 to meet spending promises but are yet to set out exactly where the cash will come from
By KATE McCANN, Whitehall Correspondent
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TORY chiefs are understood to be considering a fresh assault on Britain’s bloated benefits system by taxing hand-outs for the disabled.0 -
And with this i say goodnight.
Muslims demanding their own state in Swindon! pic.twitter.com/dWNXVtOXX7
— Brass (@brassidio) March 28, 20150 -
There's the narrative. Forget what people who watched said, the narrative is now Miliband succeeded, did amazing, is the man. This is what Cameron feared all along, although (and the reason he kept wanting these things as early as possible) there is still weeks ahead to the GE and lots of spin, propaganda and potential pitfalls.MikeSmithson said:
I've put the S Times front page in the headerScott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
The reality is both got a good kicking from Paxman, and neither were very convincing, but that doesn't matter. Expectation for Miliband were so low, he didn't shit himself, and so he won.
It is a little bit like Clegg. Clegg did win the first debate, but not by as much as it talked about in folklore. It was more like bloke who was just seen as there to make the numbers up (and used to be generally pretty crap at PMQs), just did better than then the supposed slick PR man Cameron (who was safety first in that first debate), and then the legend was born.0 -
Miliband`s TV success:Seems like cozying up to me.Tykejohnno said:
No,giving Cameron a kicking to sharpen up his performance and his parties GE campaign.SMukesh said:Looks like The Times has well and truly started hedging it`s bets.
That`s the first Labour supportive headline I have seen in the last 8 years in The Times.0 -
I for one am not rejoicing about it or staking anything on the basis of these/this poll alone. But it seems to indicate that the direction of travel for both will probably be a straight line, not a Tory upsurge given the sole 'new' factor that was supposed to change things has not yet and, in my view (and yes, potentially incorrect view) that it will not change things viz a viz the general direction of the polls as mostly static.nigel4england said:
Because that's what they got in the poll and loads on here are rejoicing about it. Personally I think anyone with a large amount staked on the basis of these polls is more deluded than MilibandPulpstar said:
Why on earth would anyone back that ?chestnut said:Is anybody on here willing to back labour at evens to get 36%? (Northern Ireland excluded)
It would be far easier to dismiss the possibility of EICIPM if it were something that only looked possible due to this possibly errant poll. But for the most part that does not appear to be what is driving peoples' views, even if it is helping confirm some.0 -
Would that 5% NHS profit cap thing be in this polling as well? Presumably it was popular when they tested it, as on policy grounds it's clearly utterly mental.0
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Something today about 7 day NHS,just rubbish.GIN1138 said:
Has the Conservative campaign started yet? I hadn't noticed to be honest....Tykejohnno said:
On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)
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This poll is unalloyed good news for Labour and it's absurd to argue otherwise. But is it an outlier or flash in the pan? Fortunately, as Mike has reminded us, we will be overwhelmed by an avalanche of polls so we'll soon know, probably by Tuesday!0
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You really need to change the thread title from undefined-discussion-subject to "Cameron can't win from here..." as wellMikeSmithson said:I've put the S Times front page in the header
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Mental Illness clearly on the rise since Thursday.nigel4england said:
Because that's what they got in the poll and loads on here are rejoicing about it. Personally I think anyone with a large amount staked on the basis of these polls is more deluded than MilibandPulpstar said:
Why on earth would anyone back that ?chestnut said:Is anybody on here willing to back labour at evens to get 36%? (Northern Ireland excluded)
Revisit your comments to see how they are stacking up.0 -
Why do you call him Cowardly ? I prefer Chicken !bigjohnowls said:
I wasnt polled by YG but compared to Cowardly apparently he was by 64% compared to 36& of those who expressed a preference.Floater said:
You really think Milliband is honest and clear?SMukesh said:Who was most honest and clear ?
Miliband 49 Cameron 28
So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.
LOL0 -
Hearn is right here, Brook - Khan is THE British fight people want to see.
Modern day War of the roses !0 -
LABOUR are considering a fresh assault on Britain's bloated benefits system by cutting off fuel bill handouts to the elderly 'leading them to freeze to death'...bigjohnowls said:
TORY chiefs are understood to be considering a fresh assault on Britain’s bloated benefits system by taxing hand-outs for the disabled.
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Magic Money Tree Promise?Tykejohnno said:
Something today about 7 day NHS,just rubbish.GIN1138 said:
Has the Conservative campaign started yet? I hadn't noticed to be honest....Tykejohnno said:
On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)0 -
If it's that close and the party were disciplined enough, he could. It would actually be interesting to see the 'loser' continue on in this modern era, and that's the sort of scenario which could conceivably allow it I think.edmundintokyo said:
Would Ed get to keep his job under those circumstances?Freggles said:
I actually think the best thing for Ed would be to miss out by about five seats on largest party, abstain on Cameron Queens speech to respect the public view, and get to humiliate a Tory minority government for a year or so before pulling the plug because they are unable to govern.kle4 said:1) Cannot trust this polling, doesn't make sense
2) Nobody watches these things/pays attentions to polls
3) In X of days [pick arbitrary point] the real choice will be clear to people and then things will change
4) It's a good thing for X, even though it looks bad for X
All could be true and show those reacting for fools in the end, but are usually put forth en mass when they have to be true to have any hope.0 -
Brits love an underdog and dislike Tories. Ed is in a sweet spot.SeanT said:
No, I think it's Miliband. He's always been a drag on the ticket, but look at the personal polling, he's gone from -48 to -28 (IIRC). That's a huge leap. Still negative, but huge.DecrepitJohnL said:
But most of the spinning, word of mouth, and indeed snap polls spoke of a Cameron win. There must be something else going on, but what?SeanT said:
You have a point, but it doesn't work quite like that. This is mass psychology, not sports betting.isam said:It is simple, and explainable in numbers to anyone who understands betting
Cameron was expected to win by 24
He won by 5
Imagine a Rugby match with a 24pt favourite in the handicap market that wins 52-47
Many of those watching must have priced in expectations, subconsciously, and wondered if Miliband could do it, then still decided Nah, Cameron's better. Recall that the ICM poll of viewers was heavily Labour weighted, yet they still preferred Cameron? The number of prior undecideds was tiny, and does not explain this movement
I reckon kle gets it right. Miliband has gained from the spinning and word of mouth that has followed, as with the Cleggasm, but on a smaller scale.
He's still not liked, but maybe people are thinking: OK he'll do, I don't like his stupid nose, but I don't like Cameron either, and I quite fancy more welfare spending. Or, rather, people are HEARING that he's not that bad for a useless nerd, and the idea that he's not that bad is allowing Labour to escape the effects of his negatives.
I believe the public are being sold a pup, like the Scots almost buying YES, I firmly believe Miliband will be as inept and ineffectual as Hollande, but that didn't stop Hollande from winning.
Europeans are tired and ageing and want soft political comfort food, even as their rivals in Asia eat raw steak and grow big muscles.
We are a continent in brisk and inexorable relative decline; in some parts of Europe we are in absolute decline. Miliband is a political symptom of this, not a protagonist.0 -
Think Labour only managed higher than 32% (and never more than 34%) in two polls during the whole 2010 election campaign, so even allowing for margin for error, really good poll for them.JohnO said:This poll is unalloyed good news for Labour and it's absurd to argue otherwise. But is it an outlier or flash in the pan? Fortunately, as Mike has reminded us, we will be overwhelmed by an avalanche of polls so we'll soon know, probably by Tuesday!
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I think Labour's "no cuts after next year" will do them well. It total bullshit, but a large percentage of public don't want to hear about more or think the job is done, when in reality all the Coalition is done a trimmed a bit of fat, when still huge underlying issues.SeanT said:
No, I think it's Miliband. He's always been a drag on the ticket, but look at the personal polling, he's gone from -48 to -28 (IIRC). That's a huge leap. Still negative, but huge.DecrepitJohnL said:
But most of the spinning, word of mouth, and indeed snap polls spoke of a Cameron win. There must be something else going on, but what?SeanT said:
You have a point, but it doesn't work quite like that. This is mass psychology, not sports betting.isam said:It is simple, and explainable in numbers to anyone who understands betting
Cameron was expected to win by 24
He won by 5
Imagine a Rugby match with a 24pt favourite in the handicap market that wins 52-47
Many of those watching must have priced in expectations, subconsciously, and wondered if Miliband could do it, then still decided Nah, Cameron's better. Recall that the ICM poll of viewers was heavily Labour weighted, yet they still preferred Cameron? The number of prior undecideds was tiny, and does not explain this movement
I reckon kle gets it right. Miliband has gained from the spinning and word of mouth that has followed, as with the Cleggasm, but on a smaller scale.
He's still not liked, but maybe people are thinking: OK he'll do, I don't like his stupid nose, but I don't like Cameron either, and I quite fancy more welfare spending. Or, rather, people are HEARING that he's not that bad for a useless nerd, and the idea that he's not that bad is allowing Labour to escape the effects of his negatives.
I believe the public are being sold a pup, like the Scots almost buying YES, I firmly believe Miliband will be as inept and ineffectual as Hollande, but that didn't stop Hollande from winning.
Europeans are tired and ageing and want soft political comfort food, even as their rivals in Asia eat raw steak and grow big muscles.
We are a continent in brisk and inexorable relative decline; in some parts of Europe we are in absolute decline. Miliband is a political symptom of this, not a protagonist.0 -
No need to revisit, I shall wait until 8th May as I simply do not believe the polls.bigjohnowls said:
Mental Illness clearly on the rise since Thursday.nigel4england said:
Because that's what they got in the poll and loads on here are rejoicing about it. Personally I think anyone with a large amount staked on the basis of these polls is more deluded than MilibandPulpstar said:
Why on earth would anyone back that ?chestnut said:Is anybody on here willing to back labour at evens to get 36%? (Northern Ireland excluded)
Revisit your comments to see how they are stacking up.0 -
People do not want Austerity because it is not needed. What's the big deal about a surplus budget ? How many years since the war have we had a surplus budget ?GIN1138 said:You have to say that if an interview that pretty much nobody has watched can lead to Labour going into a 4% lead, then the British public are basically just looking for any excuse to vote Labour/kick the Tories out.
This is actually what I've suspected for a while. People *WANT* to vote Labour (I even suspect there's a significant minority that would like to have a hard left, socialist government - The first time this has been the case since the 1970's)
The shock that awaits the British public when the reality of what they are getting hit's home will be brutal, but the trend of the moment is to give Labour the benefit of the doubt all the time and to get the Tory b*stards out...
It may be enough to give Labour a very small majority on the day.
As regarding overall debt, I think UK debt as a % of GDP is about the same as Germany ! This after such a colossal increase to overall debt in the last 5 years.0 -
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Not to me it isn't.Tykejohnno said:
Something today about 7 day NHS,just rubbish.GIN1138 said:
Has the Conservative campaign started yet? I hadn't noticed to be honest....Tykejohnno said:
On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)
To provide 7 day working above emergency work requires a lot more staffing, and a lot more anti-social hours.
A lot of staff will not want to do that and will vote with their feet.
Mind you Labour are planning much the same.0 -
Wouldn't be the first time an embargo was broke... *innocent face*Tykejohnno said:0 -
If you climb into the corner with a female repellent like Clarkson then don't be surprised if you repel the voters. The writing was on the wall on 'Any Questions' when George Galloway got the biggest cheer of the day for describing Clarkson as the bullying lout he is and for making the clear link to Cameron.0
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Hell Yeah0
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As I understand it, isn't that the grand plan the NHS top brass have come up with anyway? The Tories (unfunded) announcement today is basically we agree with them, we need to do this (just don't ask about how we will pay for it).foxinsoxuk said:
Not to me it isn't.Tykejohnno said:
Something today about 7 day NHS,just rubbish.GIN1138 said:
Has the Conservative campaign started yet? I hadn't noticed to be honest....Tykejohnno said:
On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)
To provide 7 day working above emergency work requires a lot more staffing, and a lot more anti-social hours.
A lot of staff will not want to do that and will vote with their feet.
Mind you Labour are planning much the same.0 -
I think Labour's "no cuts after next year" will do them well. It total bullshit, but a large percentage of public don't want to hear about more or think the job is done, when in reality all the Coalition is done a trimmed a bit of fat, when still huge underlying issues.
Sounds plausible. I personally think reducing the deficit should have been done faster, and should continue on, but most people either do not think that, or as things start to feel a bit better (because of or in spite of the Tories depending on peoples' views), will see less need to actually keep going with taking those same actions.
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Didn't the BMA totally rubbish it,that's all I got from the news today on the new conservative policyfoxinsoxuk said:
Not to me it isn't.Tykejohnno said:
Something today about 7 day NHS,just rubbish.GIN1138 said:
Has the Conservative campaign started yet? I hadn't noticed to be honest....Tykejohnno said:
On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)
To provide 7 day working above emergency work requires a lot more staffing, and a lot more anti-social hours.
A lot of staff will not want to do that and will vote with their feet.
Mind you Labour are planning much the same.
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I've said *for weeks* that Cameron would underestimate Miliband and underprepare. I said I was worried about the Tories complacency on this, and asked if anyone else shared the same concern. I was told, 'no'.
The same thing is happening as before, and so predictably. Taking the electorate for granted. Underestimating Miliband.
The pomposity and arrogance of the Tories may cost them the election. And none of us can afford that. Wake up.
Goodnight.0 -
You can think that all you want, but you'd be wrong. British debt/GDP ratio is pushing 90, Germany is about 80.surbiton said:
People do not want Austerity because it is not needed. What's the big deal about a surplus budget ? How many years since the war have we had a surplus budget ?GIN1138 said:You have to say that if an interview that pretty much nobody has watched can lead to Labour going into a 4% lead, then the British public are basically just looking for any excuse to vote Labour/kick the Tories out.
This is actually what I've suspected for a while. People *WANT* to vote Labour (I even suspect there's a significant minority that would like to have a hard left, socialist government - The first time this has been the case since the 1970's)
The shock that awaits the British public when the reality of what they are getting hit's home will be brutal, but the trend of the moment is to give Labour the benefit of the doubt all the time and to get the Tory b*stards out...
It may be enough to give Labour a very small majority on the day.
As regarding overall debt, I think UK debt as a % of GDP is about the same as Germany ! This after such a colossal increase to overall debt in the last 5 years.
At this point in the economic cycle.
As SeanT says, Western Europe has gone soft. 2008 will look like a picnic compared to a worldwide asset crash of govt. bonds.....you know, the sort of thing which is likely to happen if govt. debt is not made more sustainable (i.e. lowered) soon.
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RodCrosby's by-election swingback model predicts about a tie for the popular vote, which is precisely what the polls are showing. (Not this particular YouGov poll, but that's just one poll.)SMukesh said:Whatever happened to swingback:
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To be fair the BMA is a terrible, terrible organisation and if they take a view on something it's safe to assume they are wrong....Tykejohnno said:
Didn't the BMA totally rubbish it,that's all I got from the news today on the new conservative policyfoxinsoxuk said:
Not to me it isn't.Tykejohnno said:
Something today about 7 day NHS,just rubbish.GIN1138 said:
Has the Conservative campaign started yet? I hadn't noticed to be honest....Tykejohnno said:
On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)
To provide 7 day working above emergency work requires a lot more staffing, and a lot more anti-social hours.
A lot of staff will not want to do that and will vote with their feet.
Mind you Labour are planning much the same.
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My eldest brother lives in France, two years ago he had a massive aortic aneurism on a Sunday afternoon early in the New Year. He received exemplary treatment by first the fire brigade, as they were closest and stabilized him, before the paramedics arrived. He was in a coma for six weeks in Nantes before finally coming round.foxinsoxuk said:
Not to me it isn't.Tykejohnno said:
Something today about 7 day NHS,just rubbish.GIN1138 said:
Has the Conservative campaign started yet? I hadn't noticed to be honest....Tykejohnno said:
On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)
To provide 7 day working above emergency work requires a lot more staffing, and a lot more anti-social hours.
A lot of staff will not want to do that and will vote with their feet.
Mind you Labour are planning much the same.
A surgeon I know in this country told me that if he had the same trauma on a Sunday afternoon in this country he would have died.
So forgive me but I am with Cameron on this one.0 -
You could be right but they rubbishing of the conservative policy by the BMA was the news,not helpful.GIN1138 said:
To be fair the BMA is a terrible, terrible organisation and if they take a view on something it's safe to assume they are wrong....Tykejohnno said:
Didn't the BMA totally rubbish it,that's all I got from the news today on the new conservative policyfoxinsoxuk said:
Not to me it isn't.Tykejohnno said:
Something today about 7 day NHS,just rubbish.GIN1138 said:
Has the Conservative campaign started yet? I hadn't noticed to be honest....Tykejohnno said:
On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)
To provide 7 day working above emergency work requires a lot more staffing, and a lot more anti-social hours.
A lot of staff will not want to do that and will vote with their feet.
Mind you Labour are planning much the same.
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He is doing SKY News paper preview and said something that he cant say much but just remember this is one poll - will see if he says anymore at 11.30RobD said:0 -
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Blimey. All it takes is one MOE poll showing a Labour lead for patriotic PBers to show the contempt in which they hold many millions of their fellow countrymen and women. I blame the BBC.0
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Bond yields will stay down. The capitalists have nowhere else to go. As for Western Europe, it's in "relative decline" because the average Chinese worker has moved from a bowl of rice a day to about a hundred dollars a week. Relatives are sometimes - often - always? - less important than absolutes.Mortimer said:
You can think that all you want, but you'd be wrong. British debt/GDP ratio is pushing 90, Germany is about 80.surbiton said:
People do not want Austerity because it is not needed. What's the big deal about a surplus budget ? How many years since the war have we had a surplus budget ?GIN1138 said:You have to say that if an interview that pretty much nobody has watched can lead to Labour going into a 4% lead, then the British public are basically just looking for any excuse to vote Labour/kick the Tories out.
This is actually what I've suspected for a while. People *WANT* to vote Labour (I even suspect there's a significant minority that would like to have a hard left, socialist government - The first time this has been the case since the 1970's)
The shock that awaits the British public when the reality of what they are getting hit's home will be brutal, but the trend of the moment is to give Labour the benefit of the doubt all the time and to get the Tory b*stards out...
It may be enough to give Labour a very small majority on the day.
As regarding overall debt, I think UK debt as a % of GDP is about the same as Germany ! This after such a colossal increase to overall debt in the last 5 years.
At this point in the economic cycle.
As SeanT says, Western Europe has gone soft. 2008 will look like a picnic compared to a worldwide asset crash of govt. bonds.....you know, the sort of thing which is likely to happen if govt. debt is not made more sustainable (i.e. lowered) soon.0 -
Yeah. But the BMA are a spineless bunch of government stooges. I am in a far more militant union (the HCSA).Tykejohnno said:
Didn't the BMA totally rubbish it,that's all I got from the news today on the new conservative policyfoxinsoxuk said:
Not to me it isn't.Tykejohnno said:
Something today about 7 day NHS,just rubbish.GIN1138 said:
Has the Conservative campaign started yet? I hadn't noticed to be honest....Tykejohnno said:
On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)
To provide 7 day working above emergency work requires a lot more staffing, and a lot more anti-social hours.
A lot of staff will not want to do that and will vote with their feet.
Mind you Labour are planning much the same.
We struggle to staff the units 5/7; apart from emergencies. To provide services 7/7 we either need to hire more staff (but there are only so many Portuguese nurses and Greek Doctors out there!) Or to cut staffing in week.
Five more years and I am out. Then work agency at premium rates and when I choose.
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Gin
You have to say that if an interview that pretty much nobody has watched can lead to Labour going into a 4% lead, then the British public are basically just looking for any excuse to vote Labour/kick the Tories out."
The Tories have been showing their ugly side these last few weeks. Even the Bercow coup was pretty unedifying. Clarkson much worse. People got caught up in the moment and followed the lead of right wingers like Staines and Cameron. Today is the morning after...0 -
"So what drives the intelligent lefty to vote for Miliband?"SeanT said:
I accept that your guy is likely to win (a plurality at least), as things stand, but what amazes me is how intelligent pb lefties (they do exist, and I guess you are one of them) can seriously believe Miliband will be 1, significantly better than Cameron, or 2, significantly different.Jonathan said:
Brits love an underdog and dislike Tories. Ed is in a sweet spot.SeanT said:DecrepitJohnL said:
But most of the spinning, word of mouth, and indeed snap polls spoke of a Cameron win. There must be something else going on, but what?SeanT said:isam said:It is simple, and explainable in numbers to anyone who understands betting
Cameron was expected to win by 24
He won by 5
Imagine a Rugby match with a 24pt favourite in the handicap market that wins 52-47
I reckon kle gets it right. Miliband has gained from the spinning and word of mouth that has followed, as with the Cleggasm, but on a smaller scale.
I believe the public are being sold a pup, like the Scots almost buying YES, I firmly believe Miliband will be as inept and ineffectual as Hollande, but that didn't stop Hollande from winning.
Europeans are tired and ageing and want soft political comfort food, even as their rivals in Asia eat raw steak and grow big muscles.
We are a continent in brisk and inexorable relative decline; in some parts of Europe we are in absolute decline. Miliband is a political symptom of this, not a protagonist.
He will face exactly the same realities of debt and deficit, and low productivity, and uncontrollable immigration (etc). His mindset makes him less likely to tackle any of these with any vigour. He will tax a bit more and spend a bit more, but not so much as to change any lives, just enough to slow down the economy and make Britain relatively poorer than it might have been, though perhaps slightly more equal (yet equality got worse under Blair and Brown).
All this is (as I see it) undeniable. So what drives the intelligent lefty to vote for Miliband? You must see all this, yet still you do it. Is a poorer but slightly more equal society, riven by increasing immigration problems, worth it, just to see Tories beaten?
This truly mystifies me. If Miliband was promising a revolution, fair enough. But he's not.
Fairness, compassion and not just thinking of No.1. Many "lefties" as you call them, would actually be personally worse off under Labour but we still vote for and want a Labour government.0 -
Maybe.maybe not.Glad your brother is OK.nigel4england said:
My eldest brother lives in France, two years ago he had a massive aortic aneurism on a Sunday afternoon early in the New Year. He received exemplary treatment by first the fire brigade, as they were closest and stabilized him, before the paramedics arrived. He was in a coma for six weeks in Nantes before finally coming round.foxinsoxuk said:
Not to me it isn't.Tykejohnno said:
Something today about 7 day NHS,just rubbish.GIN1138 said:
Has the Conservative campaign started yet? I hadn't noticed to be honest....Tykejohnno said:
On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)
To provide 7 day working above emergency work requires a lot more staffing, and a lot more anti-social hours.
A lot of staff will not want to do that and will vote with their feet.
Mind you Labour are planning much the same.
A surgeon I know in this country told me that if he had the same trauma on a Sunday afternoon in this country he would have died.
So forgive me but I am with Cameron on this one.
There`s always a consultant vascular surgeon on-call from home who would have done his rounds in the morning.
He would be coming into the hospital for such a major operation.
Not sure where you live.But in counties surrounding London,the patient would have been helicoptered to a major hospital in London after initial stabilisation.0 -
@ShippersUnbound: Kellner has done 2 predictions for Sunday Times. Uniform swing has Lab 314, Con 251. Second adjusted for incumbency Lab 289, Con 267.0
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Sky running Labour Boost story and YG figures on Ed Miliband/David Cameron debates.
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You're right. Bond yields will stay down. The system is awash with cash (for pension schemes, mostly) that needs to be returning 4-5% p/a, but when it can't get that, will settle for anything positive.EPG said:
Bond yields will stay down. The capitalists have nowhere else to go. As for Western Europe, it's in "relative decline" because the average Chinese worker has moved from a bowl of rice a day to about a hundred dollars a week. Relatives are sometimes - often - always? - less important than absolutes.Mortimer said:
You can think that all you want, but you'd be wrong. British debt/GDP ratio is pushing 90, Germany is about 80.surbiton said:
People do not want Austerity because it is not needed. What's the big deal about a surplus budget ? How many years since the war have we had a surplus budget ?GIN1138 said:You have to say that if an interview that pretty much nobody has watched can lead to Labour going into a 4% lead, then the British public are basically just looking for any excuse to vote Labour/kick the Tories out.
This is actually what I've suspected for a while. People *WANT* to vote Labour (I even suspect there's a significant minority that would like to have a hard left, socialist government - The first time this has been the case since the 1970's)
The shock that awaits the British public when the reality of what they are getting hit's home will be brutal, but the trend of the moment is to give Labour the benefit of the doubt all the time and to get the Tory b*stards out...
It may be enough to give Labour a very small majority on the day.
As regarding overall debt, I think UK debt as a % of GDP is about the same as Germany ! This after such a colossal increase to overall debt in the last 5 years.
At this point in the economic cycle.
As SeanT says, Western Europe has gone soft. 2008 will look like a picnic compared to a worldwide asset crash of govt. bonds.....you know, the sort of thing which is likely to happen if govt. debt is not made more sustainable (i.e. lowered) soon.
...Just as sub-prime mortgage backed assets stayed at low yield until just before they went bang.
Govt debt asset crunch will be triggered by a default event, not by rising yields.
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Calm down everyone.
Just last Sunday Survation had a Lab 4 point lead.
Yet up until two hours ago everyone thought the position was tied.
This is one poll. Sure, Miliband may be moving ahead. But he may well not be.0 -
Should help labour more unless it frightens ex/shy tories to wake up and smell the coffee ;-)bigjohnowls said:Sky running Labour Boost story and YG figures on Ed Miliband/David Cameron debates.
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EICIPM?Scott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: Kellner has done 2 predictions for Sunday Times. Uniform swing has Lab 314, Con 251. Second adjusted for incumbency Lab 289, Con 267.
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Government debt-to-GDP levels are about the same as they were in the 1970s.
The idea that governments are uniquely indebted now is absurd.
Not only that, but almost everywhere we are going to see big reductions in government debt levels as nationalised banks are privatised, and assets held by "bad banks" are sold off.
Take Ireland: they nationalised almost their entire banking sector during the financial crisis, and created the National Asset Management Agency to acquire bad loans. The result of this is that government debt increased massively. As those loans are unwound and as the banks are returned to the private sector, government debt-to-GDP will come down dramatically.
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@NCPoliticsUK: Hearing of a Scottish poll in the Times (presumably by YouGov)... Sounds like it's good for the #SNP/bad for #Labour #GE20150
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Not for the money though eh! See your Trust was in the news for paying an agency nurse in excess of £1400 for a single shift.foxinsoxuk said:
Yeah. But the BMA are a spineless bunch of government stooges. I am in a far more militant union (the HCSA).Tykejohnno said:
Didn't the BMA totally rubbish it,that's all I got from the news today on the new conservative policyfoxinsoxuk said:
Not to me it isn't.Tykejohnno said:
Something today about 7 day NHS,just rubbish.GIN1138 said:
Has the Conservative campaign started yet? I hadn't noticed to be honest....Tykejohnno said:
On front page,Tory MP's demand more passion (Cameron),that's what I posted on here after the debate.Scott_P said:@thesundaytimes: Tomorrow's front page: Labour races into 4-point lead after Miliband's TV success http://t.co/yvV8EHvQmh
;-)
To provide 7 day working above emergency work requires a lot more staffing, and a lot more anti-social hours.
A lot of staff will not want to do that and will vote with their feet.
Mind you Labour are planning much the same.
We struggle to staff the units 5/7; apart from emergencies. To provide services 7/7 we either need to hire more staff (but there are only so many Portuguese nurses and Greek Doctors out there!) Or to cut staffing in week.
Five more years and I am out. Then work agency at premium rates and when I choose.
Again presumably the nurse was only partially motivated by money0 -
So Cameron got a boost in his ratings as well.0
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YouGov is within the top tier of pollsters though. You know, you have ICM, YouGov, probably MORI in the top tier? Then ComRes, Populus in the middle tier. Then Survation, Opinium, TNS in the bottom tier.MikeL said:Calm down everyone.
Just last Sunday Survation had a Lab 4 point lead.
Yet up until two hours ago everyone thought the position was tied.
This is one poll. Sure, Miliband may be moving ahead. But he may well not be.
That's how I look at it anyway...
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Not for this poll,we know where the boost came from and it was down to Cameron.MikeL said:Calm down everyone.
Just last Sunday Survation had a Lab 4 point lead.
Yet up until two hours ago everyone thought the position was tied.
This is one poll. Sure, Miliband may be moving ahead. But he may well not be.
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Do you honestly believe that Tories are unfair, uncompassionate and entirely selfish? I just don't understand that point of view.surbiton said:
"So what drives the intelligent lefty to vote for Miliband?"
Fairness, compassion and not just thinking of No.1. Many "lefties" as you call them, would actually be personally worse off under Labour but we still vote for and want a Labour government.
I'm a dyed in the wool card carrying anti-lefty; but not because I think they want to screw hard working rich people for everything they have, or because they want to make benefits millionaires.
I simply think their approach to economics is misguided (i.e. making the pie smaller could even things out relatively, but makes everyone poorer) and that their attempts to ameliorate the effects of poverty are pretty patronising.
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@Scotslass journo friend was mentioning some mind blowing internals of this poll - huge numbers of switchers.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I have been thinking of buying some long dated UK gilts which yield around 2.25% for the next 30 years to combat the risk of deflation. They are looking expensive though. Equities are looking expensive as well.Mortimer said:
You're right. Bond yields will stay down. The system is awash with cash (for pension schemes, mostly) that needs to be returning 4-5% p/a, but when it can't get that, will settle for anything positive.EPG said:
Bond yields will stay down. The capitalists have nowhere else to go. As for Western Europe, it's in "relative decline" because the average Chinese worker has moved from a bowl of rice a day to about a hundred dollars a week. Relatives are sometimes - often - always? - less important than absolutes.Mortimer said:
You can think that all you want, but you'd be wrong. British debt/GDP ratio is pushing 90, Germany is about 80.surbiton said:
People do not want Austerity because it is not needed. What's the big deal about a surplus budget ? How many years since the war have we had a surplus budget ?GIN1138 said:You have to say that if an interview that pretty much nobody has watched can lead to Labour going into a 4% lead, then the British public are basically just looking for any excuse to vote Labour/kick the Tories out.
This is actually what I've suspected for a while. People *WANT* to vote Labour (I even suspect there's a significant minority that would like to have a hard left, socialist government - The first time this has been the case since the 1970's)
The shock that awaits the British public when the reality of what they are getting hit's home will be brutal, but the trend of the moment is to give Labour the benefit of the doubt all the time and to get the Tory b*stards out...
It may be enough to give Labour a very small majority on the day.
As regarding overall debt, I think UK debt as a % of GDP is about the same as Germany ! This after such a colossal increase to overall debt in the last 5 years.
At this point in the economic cycle.
As SeanT says, Western Europe has gone soft. 2008 will look like a picnic compared to a worldwide asset crash of govt. bonds.....you know, the sort of thing which is likely to happen if govt. debt is not made more sustainable (i.e. lowered) soon.
...Just as sub-prime mortgage backed assets stayed at low yield until just before they went bang.
Govt debt asset crunch will be triggered by a default event, not by rising yields.
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Who would make the best PM - 34% Cameron,19% miliband.
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Clegg and Lib Dems first on 33% after the first 2010 debate with YGMikeL said:Calm down everyone.
Just last Sunday Survation had a Lab 4 point lead.
Yet up until two hours ago everyone thought the position was tied.
This is one poll. Sure, Miliband may be moving ahead. But he may well not be.
Scots voting for Indy with YG.
The fundamentals will determine the result. Tories have the better leader and the better economic plans.
My guess is that the underlying 2010/2015 numbers are well within the normal range but have been weighted up or down.0 -
Labour's ability to hold onto the voters who would like a revolution, or are totally anti-austerity, despite this not being on the cards with a Miliband government, does trike me as one of the more crucial factors which could swing things, a lack of support bleeding to mirror that which the Tories have suffered.SeanT said:
. If Miliband was promising a revolution, fair enough. But he's not.Jonathan said:
Brits love an underdog and dislike Tories. Ed is in a sweet spot.SeanT said:DecrepitJohnL said:
But most of the spinning, word of mouth, and indeed snap polls spoke of a Cameron win. There must be something else going on, but what?SeanT said:
You have a point, but it doesn't work quite like that. This is mass psychology, not sports betting.isam said:It is simple, and explainable in numbers to anyone who understands betting
Cameron was expected to win by 24
He won by 5
Imagine a Rugby match with a 24pt favourite in the handicap market that wins 52-47
Many of those watching must have priced in expectations, subconsciously, and wondered if Miliband could do it, then still decided Nah, Cameron's better. Recall that the ICM poll of viewers was heavily Labour weighted, yet they still preferred Cameron? The number of prior undecideds was tiny, and does not explain this movement
I reckon kle gets it right. Miliband has gained from the spinning and word of mouth that has followed, as with the Cleggasm, but on a smaller scale.
I believe the public are being sold a pup, like the Scots almost buying YES, I firmly believe Miliband will be as inept and ineffectual as Hollande, but that didn't stop Hollande from winning.
Europeans are tired and ageing and want soft political comfort food, even as their rivals in Asia eat raw steak and grow big muscles.
We are a continent in brisk and inexorable relative decline; in some parts of Europe we are in absolute decline. Miliband is a political symptom of this, not a protagonist.
Had some hope with the Green surge that was, and in any case I like the idea of other parties getting more support, but isn't looking promising at present.0 -
This was comment of the night... A fascinating insight to the mindset of a diehard Cameroon faced with unwanted newsSouthamObserver said:Blimey. All it takes is one MOE poll showing a Labour lead for patriotic PBers to show the contempt in which they hold many millions of their fellow countrymen and women. I blame the BBC.
SquareRoot Posts: 1,477
10:08PM
I don't believe any of this, it just doesn't make any sense.
Flag Quote · Off Topic
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But the reactions on here are legendary. From crossover to cross faces in the matter of seconds.PB Hodges doncha just love em!MikeL said:Calm down everyone.
Just last Sunday Survation had a Lab 4 point lead.
Yet up until two hours ago everyone thought the position was tied.
This is one poll. Sure, Miliband may be moving ahead. But he may well not be.0 -
Ok bear with me on this, I love politics and make a second income backing horses, but I have never been a political bettor until now.
Anyhow, is it plausible that with Cameron getting a kicking that the Tories may now start to encourage tactical voting, particularly in the North where UKIP are the main challengers to Labour in some seats.
It will help the Tories immensely if UKIP nick a few seats up North, any possibility of this happening?0
