Even though Cameron was the winner in the initial post-debate polls, word-of-mouth and press coverage (even in many of the less Labour-friendly papers) have been painting "Miliband is human shock!" as the story.
Slightly surprised Labour got a debate bump, largely because I'd assumed no-one had watched it.
And you are right.
The poll sponsor needs the poll to generate news.
By midweek, normality.
That normality being vote shares being about tied and the result being, to borrow a phrase, EICIPM. No news is not good news for those who would prefer Cameron as PM (and I count myself as one, lukewarmly)
Cowardly Cammo gets bitten on his bum by Peter Kellner, who now starts to show his colours. I wonder if A. Neil will grill Kellner on his polls and character tomorrow on The Sunday Politics. Probably not. Sigh!
Milibounce could be the next Cleggasm, but some, usually Tories, still think the Cleggasm cost them the result last time, so it could be destructive all the same.
The sides may still be effectively about tied, but movement is needed for the Tories, and one off or not, this poll stalls that progress that they require.
'Cannot trust these polls' will become a mantra if this poll is anywhere close to being repeated. A dangerous thing to have to rely on, but it's all they have if this continues on.
Here's hoping for a big Tory lead from someone else to stir things up.
Brian Otridge @BrianOtridge 12m12 minutes ago @HouseOfTraitors@LordAshcroft There is something very fishy going on with the polls. #UKIP doorstep experience does not match.
Brian Otridge @BrianOtridge 12m12 minutes ago @HouseOfTraitors@LordAshcroft There is something very fishy going on with the polls. #UKIP doorstep experience does not match.
1) Miliband will think his over-rehearsed responses, a la 'Hell, Yes!', were well received and will entertain us further with some similar efforts.
2) What if he is right to think that?
Now I thought he did ok, had tougher questions so had a better chance to shine even if I thought Cameron after a shaky start avoided any pitfalls, but the above do worry me.
YouGov poll finds those who saw the TV programme 49% thought Miliband came across best to Cameron's 34%
LOL Bet BBC run with this how on earth did Gold Standard GET 54/46 to Cameron
Because it phone polled so random sample with no self selection?
YG self selects?
To the extent that, as I understand it, they only poll those who have Chosen to sign up with tjem, yes.
Obviously they use all sorts of techniques to get a balanced sample bur their panel is going to be representative of those interested or motivated enough to sign up and fill on line forms.
I think the more exposure EdM gets, the better he will do as expectations are so low and he comes across as more human, strange to say.. The better he does, people will be less shy to say they support Labour when polled. A virtuous circle for Labour.
Cameron is already over-exposed with high expectations of him. He's becoming a bit of a yawn. Time for a change maybe?
I don't think Miliband will catch up with Cameron in personal ratings - the gap is too large and Ed isn't Prime Minister- but I think the gap will reduce considerably and this will be reflected in the polls.
YouGov poll finds those who saw the TV programme 49% thought Miliband came across best to Cameron's 34%
LOL Bet BBC run with this how on earth did Gold Standard GET 54/46 to Cameron
Because it phone polled so random sample with no self selection?
YG self selects?
To the extent that, as I understand it, they only poll those who have Chosen to sign up with tjem, yes.
Obviously they use all sorts of techniques to get a balanced sample bur their panel is going to be representative of those interested or motivated enough to sign up and fill on line forms.
Who was most honest and clear ? Miliband 49 Cameron 28
So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.
I really don't get those type of responses, though I don't doubt them - to me Cameron comes across as overly polished and can be robotic, but at least he's not as oily and unpleasant as Blair (but apparently people loved the guy for that), but he doesn't strike me as less sincere or more shifty than the next politician. Ed M was less clear but definitely came across as honest (even though he was far from clear on the Syria business and what his intentions were), but that margin still seems too high to me.
It is what it is though. He's a professional, I'm sure he'll be an ok PM, a bit crappy like most PMs are, but I feel like he plays it too safe and bland.
The leadership stats have been rehearsed many times on here, usually with the analysis that Ed Miliband can't win with such low approval ratings. However we know about half the country like the Labour party. What if Ed doesn't need to be good, just good enough? To have the necessary mediocrity to not be a massive drag on the ticket? The debates give him the chance to show that.
Tell us again how Cameron was a political genius in the debate negotiations and Labour got played....
Who was most honest and clear ? Miliband 49 Cameron 28
So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.
I really don't get those type of responses, though I don't doubt them - to me Cameron comes across as overly polished and can be robotic, but at least he's not as oily and unpleasant as Blair (but apparently people loved the guy for that), but he doesn't strike me as less sincere or more shifty than the next politician. Ed M was less clear but definitely came across as honest (even though he was far from clear on the Syria business and what his intentions were), but that margin still seems too high to me.
It is what it is though. He's a professional, I'm sure he'll be an ok PM, a bit crappy like most PMs are, but I feel like he plays it too safe and bland.
Nevertheless the size of the difference can be down to random sampling as it`s huge.
Perhaps Cameron`s evasiveness didn`t go down well with the audience.
I see a few of the usual suspects are in headless chicken mode, like in the days before the indyref.
Its like Cpl Jones hearing a rumour of German parachutists!
Leave OGH alone.
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·1 min1 minute ago What's important with polling at this stage is how it impacts on the overall narrative. It's less about the mathematics but the mood.
You have to say that if an interview that pretty much nobody has watched can lead to Labour going into a 4% lead, then the British public are basically just looking for any excuse to vote Labour/kick the Tories out.
This is actually what I've suspected for a while. People *WANT* to vote Labour (I even suspect there's a significant minority that would like to have a hard left, socialist government - The first time this has been the case since the 1970's)
The shock that awaits the British public when the reality of what they are getting hit's home will be brutal, but the trend of the moment is to give Labour the benefit of the doubt all the time and to get the Tory b*stards out...
It may be enough to give Labour a very small majority on the day.
I think the more exposure EdM gets, the better he will do as expectations are so low and he comes across as more human, strange to say.. The better he does, people will be less shy to say they support Labour when polled. A virtuous circle for Labour.
Could be. There were jokes before the Paxo interview about Ed soiling himself, but the man is a highly professional and experienced political animal, he wasn't going to do amazingly badly, but the anti-Eds have been so successful for these past years that the idea he is a complete joke is one of those things that I suspect has filtered down to general public consciousness - it has been my experience, and I presume has been for others, particular where one might think people would predict a Labour win, but for the Ed factor - and he just isn't going to live up to that. People know he will not be as terrible as the legend of him suggests. Even if he will be terrible, it won't be as bad as the stories of him. And people may well notice that and vote accordingly.
Ed is in the next debate, and the next one.... Dave isn't - big gap for him and yet Ed is still in that one at the end by which time he'll have been noticed on a debate Dave isn't involved with...
Cameron isn't in that and him thinking the Lib Dems aren';t is almost irrelevant as they are practically running 50 independent campaigns removed from anything else in the election (Huppert, Farron, Sanders, Burt - they are ALL virtually independent campaigns...)
I think Ed choosing to appear on the challenger's debate could play nicely for both him and Nigel.
What if Ed doesn't need to be good, just good enough? To have the necessary mediocrity to not be a massive drag on the ticket? The debates give him the chance to show that.
Indeed, and he's going to be on TV a lot over the next month leading up to the election.
Miliband not being a drag on the ticket really messes up the Conservative election strategy, which seems to be based around mentioning him as much as possible.
And people might not care for Miliband but like Labour's current policies, which he has struggled to put across so far. That changes in an election campaign.
I posted some time ago about the Right wing media attacks on Ed immunizing him by becoming too frequent. Looks like there is a chance of real backfire. However I think we will be back to tied polls on Wednesday
1) Cannot trust this polling, doesn't make sense 2) Nobody watches these things/pays attentions to polls 3) In X of days [pick arbitrary point] the real choice will be clear to people and then things will change 4) It's a good thing for X, even though it looks bad for X
All could be true and show those reacting for fools in the end, but are usually put forth en mass when they have to be true to have any hope.
I posted some time ago about the Right wing media attacks on Ed immunizing him by becoming too frequent. Looks like there is a chance of real backfire. However I think we will be back to tied polls on Wednesday
@NCPoliticsUK: Hearing figures for a subset that watched on Thursday. But only 6% of voters watched, so were they oversampled? Or a tiny N? Or a huge poll?
Only the one poll, even if against the most recent movements, so probably still only a Labour plurality on the cards for now, but a couple more like this in the next week and I'm reverting to my Lab majority prediction, Scotland bonfire or not.
A Tory plurality meanwhile would not even probably lead to a Tory government unless it was big enough, and that seems only marginally less unlikely than an outright Tory majority.
1) Cannot trust this polling, doesn't make sense 2) Nobody watches these things/pays attentions to polls 3) In X of days [pick arbitrary point] the real choice will be clear to people and then things will change 4) It's a good thing for X, even though it looks bad for X
All could be true and show those reacting for fools in the end, but are usually put forth en mass when they have to be true to have any hope.
I actually think the best thing for Ed would be to miss out by about five seats on largest party, abstain on Cameron Queens speech to respect the public view, and get to humiliate a Tory minority government for a year or so before pulling the plug because they are unable to govern.
the Lib Dems aren';t is almost irrelevant as they are practically running 50 independent campaigns removed from anything else in the election (Huppert, Farron, Sanders, Burt - they are ALL virtually independent campaigns...)
I watched a presentation on the LDs campaign the other day.
1. Apparently the national party are focussing their efforts on young female voters (they show up as undecided)
2. In LD vs Con seats the Labour leaning voters who had supported the LD candidate in the past have shifted to UKIP.
The fieldwork came in the middle of the (totally invented) 12 billion cuts farrago and the assertion that the tories would cut everything imaginable and more beside as long as it only affected dying babies and bereaved grandmothers. 20 tory MPs voting to kiss Bercow's backside might have had some influence. The interviews had long gone and are now meaningless except for the false folk memory ascribed to them according to whoever's preference. Labour's hokey-cokey with mugs will not impinge on anyone.
1) Cannot trust this polling, doesn't make sense 2) Nobody watches these things/pays attentions to polls 3) In X of days [pick arbitrary point] the real choice will be clear to people and then things will change 4) It's a good thing for X, even though it looks bad for X
All could be true and show those reacting for fools in the end, but are usually put forth en mass when they have to be true to have any hope.
I actually think the best thing for Ed would be to miss out by about five seats on largest party, abstain on Cameron Queens speech to respect the public view, and get to humiliate a Tory minority government for a year or so before pulling the plug because they are unable to govern.
Well that would be one way to guarantee the SNP getting 60% of the vote at the next Holyrood and independence thereafter.
I wonder if Ed will get overconfident as a result of this and do something really silly in the proper debate next week, like begin every answer with 'Hell yes/no' like a meme being run into the ground online.
TBF I think this bounce potentially short lived and 2 parties neck and neck in % terms.
Still good for my EICIPM forecast
I think your EICIPM forecast is good. For the moment I stand by my (long held) belief that it will be a Miliband plurality, not majority (thanks to Scotland), but, with a poll like this, who knows.
The problem for Tories is that I can't see a gamechanger from here. What will it be? The next two debates are specifically designed (by the Tories!) to have no effect. Unless Miliband collapses in the Oppo debate, pincered by Farage and Sturgeon?
its just one poll, the campaign hasn't really started yet, most people are looking forward to the easter break, we have 6 weeks to go yet, manifestos to be launched, april pay packets to be opened, and everyone I speak to cant stand EdM and the thought of the SNP dictating UK government scares people, Tories largest party nailed on!
@NCPoliticsUK: Hearing figures for a subset that watched on Thursday. But only 6% of voters watched, so were they oversampled? Or a tiny N? Or a huge poll?
All the headless chickens over analysing the meaning of one poll should remember that it's the economy stupid and that EMWNBPM.
I prefer to think of it as considering the overall trends and narratives with the contribution of this poll, rather than over analysing its specific meaning.
I should say I called the IndyRef for Yes by something like 7-8 clear points at least, so neither my system nor my gut are always right, I'll grant.
I wonder if Ed will get overconfident as a result of this and do something really silly in the proper debate next week, like begin every answer with 'Hell yes/no' like a meme being run into the ground online.
Overconfidence is one of my big worries with my North Britain bets.
But fortunately Nicola didn't yell "We're arraight"
Comments
So 54-46 and 51-49 were a case of Miliband over performing, hence the feeling he had "won"
In effect the handicap market was Cameron -24, and the result was Cameron by 2 or 8. So failing to cover the handicap by around 19
JackW your ARSE took a hell of a beating
Last Tuesdays BJESUS before debate
24.3.15 LAB 292 (291) CON 271(271) LD 30(30) UKIP 2(3) Others 55(55) (Ed is crap is PM)
Unfortunately for Dave, doesn't matter who wins the SNP-Lab seats in Scotland for him.
I know this is only a Yougov, but had the tories extended their lead by this amount, you could be sure as hell the odds would move.
That pollster is the byword for volatility.
LAB most seats still 3.05
I wonder if A. Neil will grill Kellner on his polls and character tomorrow on The Sunday Politics. Probably not. Sigh!
The sides may still be effectively about tied, but movement is needed for the Tories, and one off or not, this poll stalls that progress that they require.
'Cannot trust these polls' will become a mantra if this poll is anywhere close to being repeated. A dangerous thing to have to rely on, but it's all they have if this continues on.
Here's hoping for a big Tory lead from someone else to stir things up.
@HouseOfTraitors @LordAshcroft There is something very fishy going on with the polls. #UKIP doorstep experience does not match.
My experience too. Even in Richmond.
Must be seeing Ed on telly.
At least business is booming!
Still good for my EICIPM forecast
Seems I was right about the non-debate.
I'm off to a restaurant now.
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Miliband 49 Cameron 28
So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.
1) Miliband will think his over-rehearsed responses, a la 'Hell, Yes!', were well received and will entertain us further with some similar efforts.
2) What if he is right to think that?
Now I thought he did ok, had tougher questions so had a better chance to shine even if I thought Cameron after a shaky start avoided any pitfalls, but the above do worry me.
Obviously they use all sorts of techniques to get a balanced sample bur their panel is going to be representative of those interested or motivated enough to sign up and fill on line forms.
Oh hang on, shi...........
If the sample mirrors the population, it's about 50 people.
Opinium - certain to vote - Con 36, Lab 31.8.
The better he does, people will be less shy to say they support Labour when polled.
A virtuous circle for Labour.
Cameron is already over-exposed with high expectations of him. He's becoming a bit of a yawn. Time for a change maybe?
I don't think Miliband will catch up with Cameron in personal ratings - the gap is too large and Ed isn't Prime Minister- but I think the gap will reduce considerably and this will be reflected in the polls.
Anyway, the key phrase is "in the short term".
Cleggasm was wilder than the Yougov swing tonight - but the polls in 2010 switched back to their general trend by polling day.
I see a few of the usual suspects are in headless chicken mode, like in the days before the indyref.
Its like Cpl Jones hearing a rumour of German parachutists!
It is what it is though. He's a professional, I'm sure he'll be an ok PM, a bit crappy like most PMs are, but I feel like he plays it too safe and bland.
However we know about half the country like the Labour party.
What if Ed doesn't need to be good, just good enough? To have the necessary mediocrity to not be a massive drag on the ticket? The debates give him the chance to show that.
Tell us again how Cameron was a political genius in the debate negotiations and Labour got played....
Cameron was expected to win by 24
He won by 5
Imagine a Rugby match with a 24pt favourite in the handicap market that wins 52-47
Perhaps Cameron`s evasiveness didn`t go down well with the audience.
LOL
YG finds Who was most honest and clear ?
Miliband 49 Cameron 28
I love DH Long may he say disaster for Ed
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·1 min1 minute ago
What's important with polling at this stage is how it impacts on the overall narrative. It's less about the mathematics but the mood.
This is actually what I've suspected for a while. People *WANT* to vote Labour (I even suspect there's a significant minority that would like to have a hard left, socialist government - The first time this has been the case since the 1970's)
The shock that awaits the British public when the reality of what they are getting hit's home will be brutal, but the trend of the moment is to give Labour the benefit of the doubt all the time and to get the Tory b*stards out...
It may be enough to give Labour a very small majority on the day.
Cameron isn't in that and him thinking the Lib Dems aren';t is almost irrelevant as they are practically running 50 independent campaigns removed from anything else in the election (Huppert, Farron, Sanders, Burt - they are ALL virtually independent campaigns...)
I think Ed choosing to appear on the challenger's debate could play nicely for both him and Nigel.
Miliband not being a drag on the ticket really messes up the Conservative election strategy, which seems to be based around mentioning him as much as possible.
And people might not care for Miliband but like Labour's current policies, which he has struggled to put across so far. That changes in an election campaign.
Tomorrow's Sunday Times editorial: "Mr Cameron’s TV appearance did his party no good." http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/leaders/article1537327.ece …
No sh!t.
However I think we will be back to tied polls on Wednesday
2) Nobody watches these things/pays attentions to polls
3) In X of days [pick arbitrary point] the real choice will be clear to people and then things will change
4) It's a good thing for X, even though it looks bad for X
All could be true and show those reacting for fools in the end, but are usually put forth en mass when they have to be true to have any hope.
The Sunday Times have only put up partial figures, and I want to give the full figures,
A Tory plurality meanwhile would not even probably lead to a Tory government unless it was big enough, and that seems only marginally less unlikely than an outright Tory majority.
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LOL @ Murdoch press.
Do any of the other parties have an app ?
1. Apparently the national party are focussing their efforts on young female voters (they show up as undecided)
2. In LD vs Con seats the Labour leaning voters who had supported the LD candidate in the past have shifted to UKIP.
https://soundcloud.com/politicalstudiesassociation/dr-david-cutts-on-the-liberal-democrats-psa-media-briefing-1
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The interviews had long gone and are now meaningless except for the false folk memory ascribed to them according to whoever's preference.
Labour's hokey-cokey with mugs will not impinge on anyone.
I should say I called the IndyRef for Yes by something like 7-8 clear points at least, so neither my system nor my gut are always right, I'll grant.
But fortunately Nicola didn't yell "We're arraight"