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SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited March 2015 in General
«134

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  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    First?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Survation had people expecting Cameron to "win" byt 62-38

    So 54-46 and 51-49 were a case of Miliband over performing, hence the feeling he had "won"

    In effect the handicap market was Cameron -24, and the result was Cameron by 2 or 8. So failing to cover the handicap by around 19
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I don't believe any of this, it just doesn't make any sense.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Are we expecting any other polls tonight?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    YouGov poll finds those who saw the TV programme 49% thought Miliband came across best to Cameron's 34%
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights YG

    JackW your ARSE took a hell of a beating

    Last Tuesdays BJESUS before debate

    24.3.15 LAB 292 (291) CON 271(271) LD 30(30) UKIP 2(3) Others 55(55) (Ed is crap is PM)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    YG have been Indyrefed.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Even though Cameron was the winner in the initial post-debate polls, word-of-mouth and press coverage (even in many of the less Labour-friendly papers) have been painting "Miliband is human shock!" as the story.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    ELBOW should show a Labour lead! I need those tables, YouGov!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    YouGov poll finds those who saw the TV programme 49% thought Miliband came across best to Cameron's 34%

    LOL Bet BBC run with this how on earth did Gold Standard GET 54/46 to Cameron
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Time to calm down and wait untill a phone poll appears
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    chestnut said:

    Oliver_PB said:

    Slightly surprised Labour got a debate bump, largely because I'd assumed no-one had watched it.

    And you are right.

    The poll sponsor needs the poll to generate news.

    By midweek, normality.

    That normality being vote shares being about tied and the result being, to borrow a phrase, EICIPM. No news is not good news for those who would prefer Cameron as PM (and I count myself as one, lukewarmly)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Labour were getting a beating in the middle of Glenrothes on Thursday

    Unfortunately for Dave, doesn't matter who wins the SNP-Lab seats in Scotland for him.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    The betting market psychology is interesting.

    I know this is only a Yougov, but had the tories extended their lead by this amount, you could be sure as hell the odds would move.
  • Time to calm down and wait untill a phone poll appears

    Well the next phone poll went into the field after the debates, and will finish tomorrow.

    That pollster is the byword for volatility.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I don't believe any of this, it just doesn't make any sense.

    Anyone recommend a decent frame please? I want this on my wall.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409

    YouGov poll finds those who saw the TV programme 49% thought Miliband came across best to Cameron's 34%

    LOL Bet BBC run with this how on earth did Gold Standard GET 54/46 to Cameron
    Because it phone polled so random sample with no self selection?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    EICIPM in to 2.2 Berfair

    LAB most seats still 3.05
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Cowardly Cammo gets bitten on his bum by Peter Kellner, who now starts to show his colours.
    I wonder if A. Neil will grill Kellner on his polls and character tomorrow on The Sunday Politics. Probably not. Sigh!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited March 2015
    Milibounce could be the next Cleggasm, but some, usually Tories, still think the Cleggasm cost them the result last time, so it could be destructive all the same.

    The sides may still be effectively about tied, but movement is needed for the Tories, and one off or not, this poll stalls that progress that they require.

    'Cannot trust these polls' will become a mantra if this poll is anywhere close to being repeated. A dangerous thing to have to rely on, but it's all they have if this continues on.

    Here's hoping for a big Tory lead from someone else to stir things up.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Brian Otridge ‏@BrianOtridge 12m12 minutes ago
    @HouseOfTraitors @LordAshcroft There is something very fishy going on with the polls. #UKIP doorstep experience does not match.

    My experience too. Even in Richmond.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    YouGov poll finds those who saw the TV programme 49% thought Miliband came across best to Cameron's 34%

    LOL Bet BBC run with this how on earth did Gold Standard GET 54/46 to Cameron
    Because it phone polled so random sample with no self selection?
    YG self selects?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133

    Time to calm down and wait untill a phone poll appears

    Telephones are SO 20th century :)
  • I am gloomy.

    Must be seeing Ed on telly.

    At least business is booming!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386

    Time to calm down and wait untill a phone poll appears

    Well the next phone poll went into the field after the debates, and will finish tomorrow.

    That pollster is the byword for volatility.
    Who is it?

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TBF I think this bounce potentially short lived and 2 parties neck and neck in % terms.

    Still good for my EICIPM forecast
  • GIN1138 said:

    Time to calm down and wait untill a phone poll appears

    Well the next phone poll went into the field after the debates, and will finish tomorrow.

    That pollster is the byword for volatility.
    Who is it?

    Lord Ashcroft
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    @SeanT
    Seems I was right about the non-debate.
    I'm off to a restaurant now.
  • MikeK said:

    Brian Otridge ‏@BrianOtridge 12m12 minutes ago
    @HouseOfTraitors @LordAshcroft There is something very fishy going on with the polls. #UKIP doorstep experience does not match.

    My experience too. Even in Richmond.

    not that old chestnut.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015
    Anyone watch the Netherlands match? How about this for a lucky bet in the to score market? (That Betfair haven't settled...)


    Back
    Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 2.29 £1,051.00 £1,350.92
    £1,051.00

    Lay
    Wesley Sneijder 5.03 £167.33 £673.56
    £167.33
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    edited March 2015



    At least business is booming!

    Not when Ed get's finished with you it won't be.... Mind you might be able to retrain as a state-subsidized "out-reach worker..." ;)

  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited March 2015
    I have two big concerns here:

    1) Miliband will think his over-rehearsed responses, a la 'Hell, Yes!', were well received and will entertain us further with some similar efforts.

    2) What if he is right to think that?

    Now I thought he did ok, had tougher questions so had a better chance to shine even if I thought Cameron after a shaky start avoided any pitfalls, but the above do worry me.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409

    YouGov poll finds those who saw the TV programme 49% thought Miliband came across best to Cameron's 34%

    LOL Bet BBC run with this how on earth did Gold Standard GET 54/46 to Cameron
    Because it phone polled so random sample with no self selection?
    YG self selects?
    To the extent that, as I understand it, they only poll those who have Chosen to sign up with tjem, yes.

    Obviously they use all sorts of techniques to get a balanced sample bur their panel is going to be representative of those interested or motivated enough to sign up and fill on line forms.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2015
    GIN1138 said:



    At least business is booming!

    Not when Ed get's finished with you it won't be.... Mind you might be able to retrain as a state-subsidized "out-reach worker..." ;)

    I shall rebase to my second estate and move offshore a la hopkins... fortunately I presiently have a little scrap=pile in ..... France...

    Oh hang on, shi...........
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    YouGov poll finds those who saw the TV programme 49% thought Miliband came across best to Cameron's 34%

    Viewing figures were miniscule.

    If the sample mirrors the population, it's about 50 people.

    Opinium - certain to vote - Con 36, Lab 31.8.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    SMukesh said:

    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.

    Apologies,this may be the Youguv poll immediately after the non-debate.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    I think the more exposure EdM gets, the better he will do as expectations are so low and he comes across as more human, strange to say..
    The better he does, people will be less shy to say they support Labour when polled.
    A virtuous circle for Labour.

    Cameron is already over-exposed with high expectations of him. He's becoming a bit of a yawn. Time for a change maybe?

    I don't think Miliband will catch up with Cameron in personal ratings - the gap is too large and Ed isn't Prime Minister- but I think the gap will reduce considerably and this will be reflected in the polls.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited March 2015
    From Thursday night post debate:
    BenM Posts: 1,567
    March 26
    I think that could bump up Ed's favourability rating and therefore add a point or two to Labour's share. In the short term.
    Heh!

    Anyway, the key phrase is "in the short term".

    Cleggasm was wilder than the Yougov swing tonight - but the polls in 2010 switched back to their general trend by polling day.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Hell yeah!

    I see a few of the usual suspects are in headless chicken mode, like in the days before the indyref.

    Its like Cpl Jones hearing a rumour of German parachutists!



  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    YouGov poll finds those who saw the TV programme 49% thought Miliband came across best to Cameron's 34%

    LOL Bet BBC run with this how on earth did Gold Standard GET 54/46 to Cameron
    Because it phone polled so random sample with no self selection?
    YG self selects?
    To the extent that, as I understand it, they only poll those who have Chosen to sign up with tjem, yes.

    Obviously they use all sorts of techniques to get a balanced sample bur their panel is going to be representative of those interested or motivated enough to sign up and fill on line forms.
    Lab bias by 49/29 though?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Rachel Reeves just retweeted the Labour campaign pledges. Except one. Can anyone guess which one is missing?

  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Syria rightly burying toxic Cameron.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    SMukesh said:

    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.

    I really don't get those type of responses, though I don't doubt them - to me Cameron comes across as overly polished and can be robotic, but at least he's not as oily and unpleasant as Blair (but apparently people loved the guy for that), but he doesn't strike me as less sincere or more shifty than the next politician. Ed M was less clear but definitely came across as honest (even though he was far from clear on the Syria business and what his intentions were), but that margin still seems too high to me.

    It is what it is though. He's a professional, I'm sure he'll be an ok PM, a bit crappy like most PMs are, but I feel like he plays it too safe and bland.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Whatever happened to swingback:
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    YouGov poll finds those who saw the TV programme 49% thought Miliband came across best to Cameron's 34%

    Not "best", Mr Owls. Only "better". It´s only relative.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    The leadership stats have been rehearsed many times on here, usually with the analysis that Ed Miliband can't win with such low approval ratings.
    However we know about half the country like the Labour party.
    What if Ed doesn't need to be good, just good enough? To have the necessary mediocrity to not be a massive drag on the ticket? The debates give him the chance to show that.

    Tell us again how Cameron was a political genius in the debate negotiations and Labour got played....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015
    It is simple, and explainable in numbers to anyone who understands betting

    Cameron was expected to win by 24

    He won by 5

    Imagine a Rugby match with a 24pt favourite in the handicap market that wins 52-47
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    kle4 said:

    SMukesh said:

    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.

    I really don't get those type of responses, though I don't doubt them - to me Cameron comes across as overly polished and can be robotic, but at least he's not as oily and unpleasant as Blair (but apparently people loved the guy for that), but he doesn't strike me as less sincere or more shifty than the next politician. Ed M was less clear but definitely came across as honest (even though he was far from clear on the Syria business and what his intentions were), but that margin still seems too high to me.

    It is what it is though. He's a professional, I'm sure he'll be an ok PM, a bit crappy like most PMs are, but I feel like he plays it too safe and bland.
    Nevertheless the size of the difference can be down to random sampling as it`s huge.

    Perhaps Cameron`s evasiveness didn`t go down well with the audience.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SMukesh said:

    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.

    You really think Milliband is honest and clear?

    LOL
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Is there a percentage of voters who said "Debate, what debate" given?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The tories need a good poll lead and Quick.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    DH reckons EICIPM lied over Syria

    YG finds Who was most honest and clear ?


    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    I love DH Long may he say disaster for Ed
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    EdM shortening all over the markets for PM after general election. I'm actually green here for the first time. But no change in prices for most seats!
  • Hell yeah!

    I see a few of the usual suspects are in headless chicken mode, like in the days before the indyref.

    Its like Cpl Jones hearing a rumour of German parachutists!



    Leave OGH alone.

    Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·1 min1 minute ago
    What's important with polling at this stage is how it impacts on the overall narrative. It's less about the mathematics but the mood.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    edited March 2015
    You have to say that if an interview that pretty much nobody has watched can lead to Labour going into a 4% lead, then the British public are basically just looking for any excuse to vote Labour/kick the Tories out.

    This is actually what I've suspected for a while. People *WANT* to vote Labour (I even suspect there's a significant minority that would like to have a hard left, socialist government - The first time this has been the case since the 1970's)

    The shock that awaits the British public when the reality of what they are getting hit's home will be brutal, but the trend of the moment is to give Labour the benefit of the doubt all the time and to get the Tory b*stards out...

    It may be enough to give Labour a very small majority on the day.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Floater said:

    SMukesh said:

    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.

    You really think Milliband is honest and clear?

    LOL
    1 in 2 of the viewers did.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Barnesian said:

    I think the more exposure EdM gets, the better he will do as expectations are so low and he comes across as more human, strange to say..
    The better he does, people will be less shy to say they support Labour when polled.
    A virtuous circle for Labour.

    Could be. There were jokes before the Paxo interview about Ed soiling himself, but the man is a highly professional and experienced political animal, he wasn't going to do amazingly badly, but the anti-Eds have been so successful for these past years that the idea he is a complete joke is one of those things that I suspect has filtered down to general public consciousness - it has been my experience, and I presume has been for others, particular where one might think people would predict a Labour win, but for the Ed factor - and he just isn't going to live up to that. People know he will not be as terrible as the legend of him suggests. Even if he will be terrible, it won't be as bad as the stories of him. And people may well notice that and vote accordingly.
  • Last week sunday times was 33/35 so 32/36 is a small move but the headline of 4% will encourage labour though still all to play for
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409

    The tories need a good poll lead and Quick.

    Thwy probably need an inaccurate set of polls showing them just behind to motivate their voters
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited March 2015
    Ed is in the next debate, and the next one.... Dave isn't - big gap for him and yet Ed is still in that one at the end by which time he'll have been noticed on a debate Dave isn't involved with...

    Cameron isn't in that and him thinking the Lib Dems aren';t is almost irrelevant as they are practically running 50 independent campaigns removed from anything else in the election (Huppert, Farron, Sanders, Burt - they are ALL virtually independent campaigns...)

    I think Ed choosing to appear on the challenger's debate could play nicely for both him and Nigel.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The tories need a good poll lead and Quick.

    Six weeks is a long time in politics. It is bound to be a rollercoaster.
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    edited March 2015
    Freggles said:


    What if Ed doesn't need to be good, just good enough? To have the necessary mediocrity to not be a massive drag on the ticket? The debates give him the chance to show that.

    Indeed, and he's going to be on TV a lot over the next month leading up to the election.

    Miliband not being a drag on the ticket really messes up the Conservative election strategy, which seems to be based around mentioning him as much as possible.

    And people might not care for Miliband but like Labour's current policies, which he has struggled to put across so far. That changes in an election campaign.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Jeremy Cliffe ‏@JeremyCliffe · 5 mins5 minutes ago
    Tomorrow's Sunday Times editorial: "Mr Cameron’s TV appearance did his party no good." http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/leaders/article1537327.ece

    No sh!t.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Floater said:

    SMukesh said:

    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.

    You really think Milliband is honest and clear?

    LOL
    I wasnt polled by YG but compared to Cowardly apparently he was by 64% compared to 36& of those who expressed a preference.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Cameron avoided the debates for a reason and it wasn`t to stop himself getting a majority.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    I posted some time ago about the Right wing media attacks on Ed immunizing him by becoming too frequent. Looks like there is a chance of real backfire.
    However I think we will be back to tied polls on Wednesday
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    1) Cannot trust this polling, doesn't make sense
    2) Nobody watches these things/pays attentions to polls
    3) In X of days [pick arbitrary point] the real choice will be clear to people and then things will change
    4) It's a good thing for X, even though it looks bad for X

    All could be true and show those reacting for fools in the end, but are usually put forth en mass when they have to be true to have any hope.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    SMukesh said:

    Floater said:

    SMukesh said:

    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.

    You really think Milliband is honest and clear?

    LOL
    1 in 2 of the viewers did.
    Most people are stupid, though.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Freggles said:

    I posted some time ago about the Right wing media attacks on Ed immunizing him by becoming too frequent. Looks like there is a chance of real backfire.
    However I think we will be back to tied polls on Wednesday

    I agree with both points
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    GeoffM said:

    SMukesh said:

    Floater said:

    SMukesh said:

    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.

    You really think Milliband is honest and clear?

    LOL
    1 in 2 of the viewers did.
    Most people are stupid, though.
    Stupid people have a vote though,don`t they?
  • The morning thread will be slightly later than normal, I'm going to wait until I see the data tables.

    The Sunday Times have only put up partial figures, and I want to give the full figures,
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @NCPoliticsUK: Hearing figures for a subset that watched on Thursday. But only 6% of voters watched, so were they oversampled? Or a tiny N? Or a huge poll?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Only the one poll, even if against the most recent movements, so probably still only a Labour plurality on the cards for now, but a couple more like this in the next week and I'm reverting to my Lab majority prediction, Scotland bonfire or not.

    A Tory plurality meanwhile would not even probably lead to a Tory government unless it was big enough, and that seems only marginally less unlikely than an outright Tory majority.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Floater said:

    SMukesh said:

    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.

    You really think Milliband is honest and clear?

    LOL
    I wasnt polled by YG but compared to Cowardly apparently he was by 64% compared to 36& of those who expressed a preference.
    You keep calling him cowardly,he's PM and you are ?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    Jeremy Cliffe ‏@JeremyCliffe · 5 mins5 minutes ago
    Tomorrow's Sunday Times editorial: "Mr Cameron’s TV appearance did his party no good." http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/leaders/article1537327.ece

    No sh!t.

    PANIC!

    LOL @ Murdoch press.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    kle4 said:

    1) Cannot trust this polling, doesn't make sense
    2) Nobody watches these things/pays attentions to polls
    3) In X of days [pick arbitrary point] the real choice will be clear to people and then things will change
    4) It's a good thing for X, even though it looks bad for X

    All could be true and show those reacting for fools in the end, but are usually put forth en mass when they have to be true to have any hope.

    I actually think the best thing for Ed would be to miss out by about five seats on largest party, abstain on Cameron Queens speech to respect the public view, and get to humiliate a Tory minority government for a year or so before pulling the plug because they are unable to govern.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Can one of our Nats have a word, the SNP app isn't available on Amazon store.

    Do any of the other parties have an app ?
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    All the headless chickens over analysing the meaning of one poll should remember that it's the economy stupid and that EMWNBPM.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    the Lib Dems aren';t is almost irrelevant as they are practically running 50 independent campaigns removed from anything else in the election (Huppert, Farron, Sanders, Burt - they are ALL virtually independent campaigns...)

    I watched a presentation on the LDs campaign the other day.

    1. Apparently the national party are focussing their efforts on young female voters (they show up as undecided)

    2. In LD vs Con seats the Labour leaning voters who had supported the LD candidate in the past have shifted to UKIP.

    https://soundcloud.com/politicalstudiesassociation/dr-david-cutts-on-the-liberal-democrats-psa-media-briefing-1
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    GeoffM said:

    SMukesh said:

    Floater said:

    SMukesh said:

    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.

    You really think Milliband is honest and clear?

    LOL
    1 in 2 of the viewers did.
    Most people are stupid, though.
    Especially those who scored it Cameron 8/10 Ed 3/10
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Still big (for politics betting) money in the most seats market wanting to BACK Conservative at 1.5 and LAY Labour at 3

    £1k at 1.5 £1k at 1.51 £1500 at 1.52
    £1200 available to Back Labour at 3
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    The fieldwork came in the middle of the (totally invented) 12 billion cuts farrago and the assertion that the tories would cut everything imaginable and more beside as long as it only affected dying babies and bereaved grandmothers. 20 tory MPs voting to kiss Bercow's backside might have had some influence.
    The interviews had long gone and are now meaningless except for the false folk memory ascribed to them according to whoever's preference.
    Labour's hokey-cokey with mugs will not impinge on anyone.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Freggles said:

    kle4 said:

    1) Cannot trust this polling, doesn't make sense
    2) Nobody watches these things/pays attentions to polls
    3) In X of days [pick arbitrary point] the real choice will be clear to people and then things will change
    4) It's a good thing for X, even though it looks bad for X

    All could be true and show those reacting for fools in the end, but are usually put forth en mass when they have to be true to have any hope.

    I actually think the best thing for Ed would be to miss out by about five seats on largest party, abstain on Cameron Queens speech to respect the public view, and get to humiliate a Tory minority government for a year or so before pulling the plug because they are unable to govern.
    Well that would be one way to guarantee the SNP getting 60% of the vote at the next Holyrood and independence thereafter.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Can one of our Nats have a word, the SNP app isn't available on Amazon store.

    Do any of the other parties have an app ?

    The Tories have an iPhone/iPad app
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    I wonder if Ed will get overconfident as a result of this and do something really silly in the proper debate next week, like begin every answer with 'Hell yes/no' like a meme being run into the ground online.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    Floater said:

    SMukesh said:

    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.

    You really think Milliband is honest and clear?

    LOL
    I wasnt polled by YG but compared to Cowardly apparently he was by 64% compared to 36& of those who expressed a preference.
    You keep calling him cowardly,he's PM and you are ?
    Not for too much longer.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688

    GeoffM said:

    SMukesh said:

    Floater said:

    SMukesh said:

    Who was most honest and clear ?
    Miliband 49 Cameron 28

    So even the viewers could see that Cameron is shifty.

    You really think Milliband is honest and clear?

    LOL
    1 in 2 of the viewers did.
    Most people are stupid, though.
    Especially those who scored it Cameron 8/10 Ed 3/10
    I am amused that only yesterday there were Tories attacking the BBC for not having acclaimed Cameron as the winner of the debate/interviews.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    weejonnie said:
    Keep on buying them my friends,more money in the labour coffers.

  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited March 2015
    SeanT said:

    TBF I think this bounce potentially short lived and 2 parties neck and neck in % terms.

    Still good for my EICIPM forecast

    I think your EICIPM forecast is good. For the moment I stand by my (long held) belief that it will be a Miliband plurality, not majority (thanks to Scotland), but, with a poll like this, who knows.

    The problem for Tories is that I can't see a gamechanger from here. What will it be? The next two debates are specifically designed (by the Tories!) to have no effect. Unless Miliband collapses in the Oppo debate, pincered by Farage and Sturgeon?



    its just one poll, the campaign hasn't really started yet, most people are looking forward to the easter break, we have 6 weeks to go yet, manifestos to be launched, april pay packets to be opened, and everyone I speak to cant stand EdM and the thought of the SNP dictating UK government scares people, Tories largest party nailed on!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Poll: 49% of people called TV debate for Miliband. 95% of population didn't watch it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Pulpstar said:

    Can one of our Nats have a word, the SNP app isn't available on Amazon store.

    Do any of the other parties have an app ?

    The Tories have an iPhone/iPad app
    Can't see it in Kindle store either.
  • The Sunday Times say (no figures yet) that Nick Clegg received a bigger boost after the first debate in 2010 than Ed Miliband has.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Scott_P said:

    @NCPoliticsUK: Hearing figures for a subset that watched on Thursday. But only 6% of voters watched, so were they oversampled? Or a tiny N? Or a huge poll?

    Good point could be like a Scottish sub sample
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited March 2015

    All the headless chickens over analysing the meaning of one poll should remember that it's the economy stupid and that EMWNBPM.

    I prefer to think of it as considering the overall trends and narratives with the contribution of this poll, rather than over analysing its specific meaning.

    I should say I called the IndyRef for Yes by something like 7-8 clear points at least, so neither my system nor my gut are always right, I'll grant.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @May2015NS: Anyone plugging tonight's poll into a seat predictor & saying Labour are going to win a majority should put the bottle down…
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Those mugs had better be made in Stoke-on-Trent by sixth-generation potters, rather than a plant in PR China.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    kle4 said:

    I wonder if Ed will get overconfident as a result of this and do something really silly in the proper debate next week, like begin every answer with 'Hell yes/no' like a meme being run into the ground online.

    Overconfidence is one of my big worries with my North Britain bets.

    But fortunately Nicola didn't yell "We're arraight"
This discussion has been closed.