politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » February’s PB Polling Average: Crossover
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Nope, as I have said on here many times before Nick is a friend initially through a shared interest in gaming. As such although we disagree fundamentally on many issues I know him to be a decent man who serves his constituents well. Soubrey is a party fanatic who has shown little interest in her constituents over the last 5 years. I don't know if that is enough to see her kicked out but I hope it is.TGOHF said:
Strong support from the Kippers on here for the lefty Europhile over the righty one it seems.Richard_Tyndall said:
So nothing she has actually done except show undying loyalty to her leader. And don't you think being a good constituency representative is actually what being an MP is supposed to be about?Easterross said:
How about the first woman to be appointed a Defence Minister of State. NPXMP on the other hand in 13 years didn't even manage the most junior Under Secretary of State for toilet rolls and plumbing repairs in the HoC stores cupboard!coolagorna said:
What exactly has Soubrey "achieved"?TheWatcher said:
There's plenty of time for voters in Broxtowe to see sense, and vote to keep an MP who's achieved something, rather than merely plod along as an expensive nodding dog.coolagorna said:
Nick is 2/7 to beat fishwife Soubrey so presumably theSquareRoot said:
You've been too busy looking at your "lead" in Broxtowe.. Last time I seem to recall you said it was about 7%.... but I don't recall you mentioning since, but I have not been on PB much of late. Wonder where it is now?NickPalmer said:
That's correct! Hard to see much in those moving averages, though.Gadfly said:
Crossovers come and go, but moving averages are hard to ignore...JWisemann said:Right - another crossover in all polls where conservatives are showing a lead ignoring all of those many more in which they are not. Ok folks.
lead is still looking pretty good0 -
Well, everyone's in on this so here goes- the first and probably never to be repeated Serious Targetted Objective Decision General Election or STODGE for short covering just London (as the rest of the UK is inhabited by two-headed troll people and dragons):
Labour 46 seats
Conservative 23 seats
Liberal Democrats 4 seats
UKIP, Greens,SNP, OMLRP, SDP, BBC, AA, RSVP 0 seats
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The MPs select the PM and then hold them to account. Soubrey has had no apparent interest in holding Cameron to account and has simply served as a party attack dog.Flightpath said:
We select leaders from our MPs - or do you think we should have unelected people running the country? The point is harsh on NPXMP but valid. Your point about Soubry is vacuous.Richard_Tyndall said:
So nothing she has actually done except show undying loyalty to her leader. And don't you think being a good constituency representative is actually what being an MP is supposed to be about?Easterross said:
How about the first woman to be appointed a Defence Minister of State. NPXMP on the other hand in 13 years didn't even manage the most junior Under Secretary of State for toilet rolls and plumbing repairs in the HoC stores cupboard!coolagorna said:
What exactly has Soubrey "achieved"?TheWatcher said:
There's plenty of time for voters in Broxtowe to see sense, and vote to keep an MP who's achieved something, rather than merely plod along as an expensive nodding dog.coolagorna said:
Nick is 2/7 to beat fishwife Soubrey so presumably theSquareRoot said:
You've been too busy looking at your "lead" in Broxtowe.. Last time I seem to recall you said it was about 7%.... but I don't recall you mentioning since, but I have not been on PB much of late. Wonder where it is now?NickPalmer said:
That's correct! Hard to see much in those moving averages, though.Gadfly said:
Crossovers come and go, but moving averages are hard to ignore...JWisemann said:Right - another crossover in all polls where conservatives are showing a lead ignoring all of those many more in which they are not. Ok folks.
lead is still looking pretty good0 -
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.Indigo said:He had the option to quietly ease in Gay Marriage without a big song and dance, to sell it as some "tidying up", and deprecate it as "not a big deal because most of it was in civil partnerships"
Instead he rubbed his social conservative core's face in it, and show-boated it for all he was worth, and insulted anyone on the right of his party who expressed even qualified reservation to the policy. .0 -
MPs don't just select the PM to unilaterally run the country they also act as ministers like Soubrey has but NPXMP didn't.Richard_Tyndall said:
The MPs select the PM and then hold them to account. Soubrey has had no apparent interest in holding Cameron to account and has simply served as a party attack dog.Flightpath said:
We select leaders from our MPs - or do you think we should have unelected people running the country? The point is harsh on NPXMP but valid. Your point about Soubry is vacuous.Richard_Tyndall said:
So nothing she has actually done except show undying loyalty to her leader. And don't you think being a good constituency representative is actually what being an MP is supposed to be about?Easterross said:
How about the first woman to be appointed a Defence Minister of State. NPXMP on the other hand in 13 years didn't even manage the most junior Under Secretary of State for toilet rolls and plumbing repairs in the HoC stores cupboard!coolagorna said:
What exactly has Soubrey "achieved"?TheWatcher said:
There's plenty of time for voters in Broxtowe to see sense, and vote to keep an MP who's achieved something, rather than merely plod along as an expensive nodding dog.coolagorna said:
Nick is 2/7 to beat fishwife Soubrey so presumably theSquareRoot said:
You've been too busy looking at your "lead" in Broxtowe.. Last time I seem to recall you said it was about 7%.... but I don't recall you mentioning since, but I have not been on PB much of late. Wonder where it is now?NickPalmer said:
That's correct! Hard to see much in those moving averages, though.Gadfly said:
Crossovers come and go, but moving averages are hard to ignore...JWisemann said:Right - another crossover in all polls where conservatives are showing a lead ignoring all of those many more in which they are not. Ok folks.
lead is still looking pretty good
I think it's brave to go into an election saying you got it wrong last time. With all due respect I hope the voters of Broxtowe say No we didn't.0 -
Agree entirely. He did the right thing in the right way. In doing so he set a benchmark for what we should consider acceptable behaviour regarding the State's relationship with the citizen.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.Indigo said:He had the option to quietly ease in Gay Marriage without a big song and dance, to sell it as some "tidying up", and deprecate it as "not a big deal because most of it was in civil partnerships"
Instead he rubbed his social conservative core's face in it, and show-boated it for all he was worth, and insulted anyone on the right of his party who expressed even qualified reservation to the policy. .0 -
I would always vote for person above party - even when I might disagree with many of a person's views. I would not hesitate to vote for Nick Palmer if he was my candidate locally; nor would I hesitate to vote for Richard Tyndall.
I shan't list pb posters who I wouldn't vote for :-)0 -
The 'centrist LD' is looking through the wrong end of the telescope. The govt are doing a good job on the economy. Its business secretary is a LD...Indigo said:
That fact that a centrist LD speaks with approval of the policy positions of a Conservative PM should be ringing large warning bells in and of it self. It implies not only that Cameron's views are probably way off what would be typical of his party, worse it implies that voters that like his views should consider the "real thing" and vote LD, which might be awkward when the LDs ditch Clegg and climb out of the coffin.Alanbrooke said:
Oddly my views for not voting Blue mirror yours. I think this government has spent too much time on peripheral issues and not enough on reforming the economy.Like you I don't believe their spending plans for the next Parliament, however I don't believe anyone else's either.antifrank said:
I quite like David Cameron and as it happens I think this government has done a decent job in very difficult circumstances. For me there is a dealbreaker for voting Conservative in 2015, which is that if they get back into government they will exhaust themselves and the government over the essentially peripheral issue of the EU. There are far more important things to be getting on with.Alanbrooke said:Not naughty at all Charles. I'm merely pointing out that folks like antifrank should be voting for you after all that effort and they aren't, A/f will no doubt speak for himself, but the tone in his comments to me at any rate is that he thinks Cameron is a good chap, but he wouldn't vote blue.
You have detoxed Cameron but not the Conservatives.
On the other hand you've lost people like myself who would even turn out for the no-hoper of 1997. Since effectively Cameron has put nothing on the table to keep us on board and his coterie have seriously misjudged people's appetite for stupid grandstanding. I said as early as 2011 that Cameronwas being a spendthrift with his political capital and so it is proving.
I'm also unimpressed by their spending plans, but I don't believe in practice that they would follow them, so that's a semi-dealbreaker.
I'll either vote Lib Dem or Green. Probably Lib Dem, to reward them for the good job that they have done in government.
If spending is a major concern for you I'd have thought the Greens is an odd choice.
His remarks indicate he is a 'centrist' not an 'LD'.
Also his remarks by no means indicate what you imply. Nor do Cameron's real world actions. The govt have for instance cut large numbers of public sector jobs and the top rate of income tax.
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I disagree that this is natural Labour gain territory. Cambridge is booming and the nature of the city changing with it. Population is rising there is no particular natural territory for Labour apart from a few old housing estates which are being eaten away street by street by new developments as gentrification expands. The Science sector is edging up on the University as the dominant force in the town - not much unionisation there.rcs1000 said:
Huppert is a good local MP. But really, he'll hold on because the Cambridge Labour Party are spectacularly inept. Cambridge should have - alongside Redcar - been the most nailed on Labour gain in the country. To be a position where people are talking about whether they will even come in second is extraordinary.
I can't see any appetite for Labour at all.0 -
Pffft. It wasn't mentioned the entire campaign, didn't appear in the manifesto, until four days before the election we brought out "Contract for Equalities" which said it would 'consider' recognising civil partnerships as marriage if elected, no wonder the traditionalists were pissed off. If that had been a whipped vote the party would have imploded on the spot, and Cameron knew he didn't have to because it would carry on Labour votes.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.Indigo said:He had the option to quietly ease in Gay Marriage without a big song and dance, to sell it as some "tidying up", and deprecate it as "not a big deal because most of it was in civil partnerships"
Instead he rubbed his social conservative core's face in it, and show-boated it for all he was worth, and insulted anyone on the right of his party who expressed even qualified reservation to the policy. .
Maybe, that will be cold comfort on the opposition benches now the traditionalists have moved to join the kippers.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agree entirely. He did the right thing in the right way. In doing so he set a benchmark for what we should consider acceptable behaviour regarding the State's relationship with the citizen.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.0 -
But it's also clear that this government does not think you fully own your own body. We see the state limiting prostitution and porn in ways that may be in line with the less liberal in our society.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agree entirely. He did the right thing in the right way. In doing so he set a benchmark for what we should consider acceptable behaviour regarding the State's relationship with the citizen.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.Indigo said:He had the option to quietly ease in Gay Marriage without a big song and dance, to sell it as some "tidying up", and deprecate it as "not a big deal because most of it was in civil partnerships"
Instead he rubbed his social conservative core's face in it, and show-boated it for all he was worth, and insulted anyone on the right of his party who expressed even qualified reservation to the policy. .0 -
All that may be true, but it bears no relation to what you said in the post I responded to.Indigo said:Pffft. It wasn't mentioned the entire campaign, didn't appear in the manifesto, until four days before the election we brought out "Contract for Equalities" which said it would 'consider' recognising civil partnerships as marriage if elected, no wonder the traditionalists were pissed off. If that had been a whipped vote the party would have imploded on the spot, and Cameron knew he didn't have to because it would carry on Labour votes.
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You may be assured that my ARSE hasn't the least bit of stodge about it and will always be seen on PB with judicious brevity as the occasion demands.stodge said:
Unfortunately a long way from any notions of modesty and humility it would seem and please don't overburden us with your ARSE - it gets far too much exposure as it is.JackW said:
Quite so.
Where will my magnificence end ?!?
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Neither of the two principal spread-betting firms have altered their GE Seats prices by one jot this morning.
So the moral seems to be not to become overly excited by the odd seemingly epoch-making poll.0 -
I don't think the Lib Dems should be hostile to the rich but they MUST be serious about inequality. If they aren't then their only future is as a small state party for libertarians who can't bring themselves to vote Tory. About 5% of the electorate max.stodge said:
Sounds like Messrs Alanbrooke, Antifrank and Stodge are of similar mind this morning which can only be a positive thing for everyone.Indigo said:
That fact that a centrist LD speaks with approval of the policy positions of a Conservative PM should be ringing large warning bells in and of it self. It implies not only that Cameron's views are probably way off what would be typical of his party, worse it implies that voters that like his views should consider the "real thing" and vote LD, which might be awkward when the LDs ditch Clegg and climb out of the coffin.
As to a post-Clegg Liberal Democrat Party, I don't know. The implication from your comment is you expect Farron to drag us off to "the Left" (whatever that means).
I don't see that at all. The Party won't run away from what it's achieved in Coalition but will rightly refefine its position (assuming we are in Opposition) to what the Government does.
The economic policy based on tax rises and spending cuts to achieve deficit reduction is the only credible thing out there but there are probably few if any votes in it.
Beyond that, as with most people, I've no problem with people being rich. The problem is when the same standards that apply to the rest of us don't seem to apply to them.0 -
Oh agreed. They have done many bad things as well and overall I don't trust them nor like the way they appear to view the electorate. Far too statist for my liking. But this was an instance where they did the right thing and when that happens they should be applauded for it.Patrick said:
But it's also clear that this government does not think you fully own your own body. We see the state limiting prostitution and porn in ways that may be in line with the less liberal in our society.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agree entirely. He did the right thing in the right way. In doing so he set a benchmark for what we should consider acceptable behaviour regarding the State's relationship with the citizen.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.Indigo said:He had the option to quietly ease in Gay Marriage without a big song and dance, to sell it as some "tidying up", and deprecate it as "not a big deal because most of it was in civil partnerships"
Instead he rubbed his social conservative core's face in it, and show-boated it for all he was worth, and insulted anyone on the right of his party who expressed even qualified reservation to the policy. .0 -
Was visiting my folks over the weekend in Thornbury and Yate and they have received several mailshots recently from the Cons. Surprised the Cons are targetting here heavily, although there are also Council elections in May.0
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If they can afford it they should be. Get the LD majority down to a more manageable 2,500 or so. If they're out of government and likely to remain so, I wonder how many ex-Government LDs will want to stand again in 2020.Garethofthevale said:Was visiting my folks over the weekend in Thornbury and Yate and they have received several mailshots recently from the Cons. Surprised the Cons are targetting here heavily, although there are also Council elections in May.
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The traditionalists are literally dying off.Indigo said:
Pffft. It wasn't mentioned the entire campaign, didn't appear in the manifesto, until four days before the election we brought out "Contract for Equalities" which said it would 'consider' recognising civil partnerships as marriage if elected, no wonder the traditionalists were pissed off. If that had been a whipped vote the party would have imploded on the spot, and Cameron knew he didn't have to because it would carry on Labour votes.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.Indigo said:He had the option to quietly ease in Gay Marriage without a big song and dance, to sell it as some "tidying up", and deprecate it as "not a big deal because most of it was in civil partnerships"
Instead he rubbed his social conservative core's face in it, and show-boated it for all he was worth, and insulted anyone on the right of his party who expressed even qualified reservation to the policy. .
Maybe, that will be cold comfort on the opposition benches now the traditionalists have moved to join the kippers.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agree entirely. He did the right thing in the right way. In doing so he set a benchmark for what we should consider acceptable behaviour regarding the State's relationship with the citizen.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.
It was the conservatives clause 4 moment, that dave stumbled on by chance.0 -
I'd prefer if they were quashed rather than this, but sometimes you have to accept what is on offer
Ed Miliband has today pledged that a future Labour Government will offer posthumous pardons for gay men convicted under historic indecency laws.
The new legislation will allow the family and friends of deceased men to apply to the Home Office to quash convictions under the historic ‘gross indecency’ law for consensual same-sex relationships.
This law will be known as Turing’s Law in memory of Alan Turing – the Enigma code-breaker – who was convicted of ‘gross indecency’ in 1952 and has subsequently received a posthumous Royal pardon.
http://press.labour.org.uk/post/112595562364/ed-miliband-pledges-the-next-labour-government0 -
I fully expect a Lib Dem Hold here, but interestingly it was the first Lib Dem victory to declare in 2010 so may well be an indicator for what sort of a night the yellow-blue battleground has in prospect...Tissue_Price said:
If they can afford it they should be. Get the LD majority down to a more manageable 2,500 or so. If they're out of government and likely to remain so, I wonder how many ex-Government LDs will want to stand again in 2020.Garethofthevale said:Was visiting my folks over the weekend in Thornbury and Yate and they have received several mailshots recently from the Cons. Surprised the Cons are targetting here heavily, although there are also Council elections in May.
If the Lib Dems squeak home here by under 2,500 votes they are in more trouble than previously imagined methinks.0 -
On topic, better late than never.0
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I think the Conservatives would not be doing nearly as well as they are in the 18-40 demographic had they rejected gay marriage. I agree the issue seemed to sneak up on everyone, but it was probably better that way (both in terms of Tory party management, and for the country at large).Pong said:
The traditionalists are literally dying off.Indigo said:
Pffft. It wasn't mentioned the entire campaign, didn't appear in the manifesto, until four days before the election we brought out "Contract for Equalities" which said it would 'consider' recognising civil partnerships as marriage if elected, no wonder the traditionalists were pissed off. If that had been a whipped vote the party would have imploded on the spot, and Cameron knew he didn't have to because it would carry on Labour votes.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.Indigo said:He had the option to quietly ease in Gay Marriage without a big song and dance, to sell it as some "tidying up", and deprecate it as "not a big deal because most of it was in civil partnerships"
Instead he rubbed his social conservative core's face in it, and show-boated it for all he was worth, and insulted anyone on the right of his party who expressed even qualified reservation to the policy. .
Maybe, that will be cold comfort on the opposition benches now the traditionalists have moved to join the kippers.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agree entirely. He did the right thing in the right way. In doing so he set a benchmark for what we should consider acceptable behaviour regarding the State's relationship with the citizen.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.
It was the conservatives clause 4 moment, that dave stumbled on by chance.0 -
Yes yes, I understand. However they are not dead yet, and they are currently not going to be voting Conservative. High principle is all very well, but what with austerity, and several presentational cock-ups, a more emollient approach (with the same end result) which doesn't leave you on the opposition benches seems to be the sensible approach.Pong said:The traditionalists are literally dying off.
It was the conservatives clause 4 moment, that dave stumbled on by chance.
I don't think anyone was proposing not to pass it, but even taking that view on its merits, I am not sure the wins in the low turn out 18-40s is worth the loss of the high-turnout 65+sTissue_Price said:I think the Conservatives would not be doing nearly as well as they are in the 18-40 demographic had they rejected gay marriage.
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My own model has them winning this by 4,000 (for a consistent with 27 seats overall).Pulpstar said:
I fully expect a Lib Dem Hold here, but interestingly it was the first Lib Dem victory to declare in 2010 so may well be an indicator for what sort of a night the yellow-blue battleground has in prospect...Tissue_Price said:
If they can afford it they should be. Get the LD majority down to a more manageable 2,500 or so. If they're out of government and likely to remain so, I wonder how many ex-Government LDs will want to stand again in 2020.Garethofthevale said:Was visiting my folks over the weekend in Thornbury and Yate and they have received several mailshots recently from the Cons. Surprised the Cons are targetting here heavily, although there are also Council elections in May.
If the Lib Dems squeak home here by under 2,500 votes they are in more trouble than previously imagined methinks.0 -
There's a reason why they might be targeting it now.Tissue_Price said:
My own model has them winning this by 4,000 (for a consistent with 27 seats overall).Pulpstar said:
I fully expect a Lib Dem Hold here, but interestingly it was the first Lib Dem victory to declare in 2010 so may well be an indicator for what sort of a night the yellow-blue battleground has in prospect...Tissue_Price said:
If they can afford it they should be. Get the LD majority down to a more manageable 2,500 or so. If they're out of government and likely to remain so, I wonder how many ex-Government LDs will want to stand again in 2020.Garethofthevale said:Was visiting my folks over the weekend in Thornbury and Yate and they have received several mailshots recently from the Cons. Surprised the Cons are targetting here heavily, although there are also Council elections in May.
If the Lib Dems squeak home here by under 2,500 votes they are in more trouble than previously imagined methinks.
Set it up for a second election in late 2015 or 2016.
The Tories are the only ones who can realistically fight two general elections a short time apart.0 -
"I think we owe it to the LGBT community to make this move" Weirdo Ed in Gay Times
Do any members of the LGBT community feel they are owed a pardon for the homosexuals long ago convicted for buggery?0 -
May 2015 has them winning it by 21% and Electionforecast by 23%.Tissue_Price said:
My own model has them winning this by 4,000 (for a consistent with 27 seats overall).Pulpstar said:
I fully expect a Lib Dem Hold here, but interestingly it was the first Lib Dem victory to declare in 2010 so may well be an indicator for what sort of a night the yellow-blue battleground has in prospect...Tissue_Price said:
If they can afford it they should be. Get the LD majority down to a more manageable 2,500 or so. If they're out of government and likely to remain so, I wonder how many ex-Government LDs will want to stand again in 2020.Garethofthevale said:Was visiting my folks over the weekend in Thornbury and Yate and they have received several mailshots recently from the Cons. Surprised the Cons are targetting here heavily, although there are also Council elections in May.
If the Lib Dems squeak home here by under 2,500 votes they are in more trouble than previously imagined methinks.
Then again Shadsy has gone top price at 1-4 Lib Dems......0 -
On the 200th anniversary of Waterloo, it seems appropriate that this years election should be "a damned close run thing..."TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, better late than never.
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This revisionist apologising tendency is getting quite nauseous tbh, lots of people did lots of things years ago which we now view as wrong other people did things then viewed as wrong about which we now have no problem, in the same way as lots of things we do now will be views as immoral in fifty years time, to we continue to mouth platitudes to the dead for ever more ?JonnyJimmy said:"I think we owe it to the LGBT community to make this move" Weirdo Ed in Gay Times
Do any members of the LGBT community feel they are owed a pardon for the homosexuals long ago convicted for buggery?0 -
Thornbury and Yate will be one of those where if the Lib Dems do seemingly well then we don't know if they may still have a bad night, but if they only just squeak home we can be quite sure they will.
A portentous result...0 -
I've said that Dave should model his European Union renegotiation strategy based on the Battle of Waterloo.MarqueeMark said:
On the 200th anniversary of Waterloo, it seems appropriate that this years election should be "a damned close run thing..."TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, better late than never.
An Eton educated Tory PM unites Europe to give les grenouilles a damn good hiding.0 -
My model has LibDems winning Thornbury and Yate by 3,100 (with 31 LibDem seats overall).Pulpstar said:
May 2015 has them winning it by 21% and Electionforecast by 23%.Tissue_Price said:
My own model has them winning this by 4,000 (for a consistent with 27 seats overall).Pulpstar said:
I fully expect a Lib Dem Hold here, but interestingly it was the first Lib Dem victory to declare in 2010 so may well be an indicator for what sort of a night the yellow-blue battleground has in prospect...Tissue_Price said:
If they can afford it they should be. Get the LD majority down to a more manageable 2,500 or so. If they're out of government and likely to remain so, I wonder how many ex-Government LDs will want to stand again in 2020.Garethofthevale said:Was visiting my folks over the weekend in Thornbury and Yate and they have received several mailshots recently from the Cons. Surprised the Cons are targetting here heavily, although there are also Council elections in May.
If the Lib Dems squeak home here by under 2,500 votes they are in more trouble than previously imagined methinks.
Then again Shadsy has gone top price at 1-4 Lib Dems......0 -
The downside of this crossover thread is that my AV thread is delayed, as I need to update it somewhat.
I can feel everyone's disappointment that we're not getting an AV thread today.0 -
yeah except it was the wrong C4 moment - fine for happy prosperous times, but in a recession when voters were hurting he needed to C4 on wealth and privilege not social issues.Pong said:
The traditionalists are literally dying off.Indigo said:
Pffft. It wasn't mentioned the entire campaign, didn't appear in the manifesto, until four days before the election we brought out "Contract for Equalities" which said it would 'consider' recognising civil partnerships as marriage if elected, no wonder the traditionalists were pissed off. If that had been a whipped vote the party would have imploded on the spot, and Cameron knew he didn't have to because it would carry on Labour votes.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.Indigo said:He had the option to quietly ease in Gay Marriage without a big song and dance, to sell it as some "tidying up", and deprecate it as "not a big deal because most of it was in civil partnerships"
Instead he rubbed his social conservative core's face in it, and show-boated it for all he was worth, and insulted anyone on the right of his party who expressed even qualified reservation to the policy. .
Maybe, that will be cold comfort on the opposition benches now the traditionalists have moved to join the kippers.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agree entirely. He did the right thing in the right way. In doing so he set a benchmark for what we should consider acceptable behaviour regarding the State's relationship with the citizen.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.
It was the conservatives clause 4 moment, that dave stumbled on by chance.0 -
CCHQ does seem to be doing some things which are remarkably bullish. Especially in Wales.Tissue_Price said:
If they can afford it they should be. Get the LD majority down to a more manageable 2,500 or so. If they're out of government and likely to remain so, I wonder how many ex-Government LDs will want to stand again in 2020.Garethofthevale said:Was visiting my folks over the weekend in Thornbury and Yate and they have received several mailshots recently from the Cons. Surprised the Cons are targetting here heavily, although there are also Council elections in May.
Perhaps it is the two-election strategy. Or maybe there is more enthusiasm in the party than those who say it is moribund would credit? Certainly in Torbay, no lack of enthusiasm from the blue team. Some residents have now received their seventh different hand-delivered leaflet since Conference.... Not paid-for mail-shots these.0 -
The Gov't has looked after the grey vote. Finding #617 of the Ashcroft focus group.Indigo said:
Yes yes, I understand. However they are not dead yet, and they are currently not going to be voting Conservative. High principle is all very well, but what with austerity, and several presentational cock-ups, a more emollient approach (with the same end result) which doesn't leave you on the opposition benches seems to be the sensible approach.Pong said:The traditionalists are literally dying off.
It was the conservatives clause 4 moment, that dave stumbled on by chance.
I don't think anyone was proposing not to pass it, but even taking that view on its merits, I am not sure the wins in the low turn out 18-40s is worth the loss of the high-turnout 65+sTissue_Price said:I think the Conservatives would not be doing nearly as well as they are in the 18-40 demographic had they rejected gay marriage.
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Is why I've ruled out a Con/DUP coalition.Alanbrooke said:
yeah except it was the wrong C4 moment - fine for happy prosperous times, but in a recession when voters were hurting he needed to C4 on wealth and privilege not social issues.Pong said:
The traditionalists are literally dying off.Indigo said:
Pffft. It wasn't mentioned the entire campaign, didn't appear in the manifesto, until four days before the election we brought out "Contract for Equalities" which said it would 'consider' recognising civil partnerships as marriage if elected, no wonder the traditionalists were pissed off. If that had been a whipped vote the party would have imploded on the spot, and Cameron knew he didn't have to because it would carry on Labour votes.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.Indigo said:He had the option to quietly ease in Gay Marriage without a big song and dance, to sell it as some "tidying up", and deprecate it as "not a big deal because most of it was in civil partnerships"
Instead he rubbed his social conservative core's face in it, and show-boated it for all he was worth, and insulted anyone on the right of his party who expressed even qualified reservation to the policy. .
Maybe, that will be cold comfort on the opposition benches now the traditionalists have moved to join the kippers.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agree entirely. He did the right thing in the right way. In doing so he set a benchmark for what we should consider acceptable behaviour regarding the State's relationship with the citizen.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.
It was the conservatives clause 4 moment, that dave stumbled on by chance.
Can you imagine the Save Ulster from Sodomy lot propping up the PM that introduced Gay Marriage.0 -
Jackie Doyle Price MP for Thurrock saying on twitter she is 4% ahead...
She is using the election forecast tables, which actually put her 3 points ahead of labour with Ukip in 3rd
I'll offer 8/1 that is the correct order0 -
Would Cameron offer a clause 4 on wealth and privilege? I assumed on such matters he was of the old school (tie?). Personally I think his clause 4 should have been a commitment to renationalise the railways.Alanbrooke said:
yeah except it was the wrong C4 moment - fine for happy prosperous times, but in a recession when voters were hurting he needed to C4 on wealth and privilege not social issues.Pong said:
The traditionalists are literally dying off.Indigo said:Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.Indigo said:He had the option to quietly ease in Gay Marriage without a big song and dance, to sell it as some "tidying up", and deprecate it as "not a big deal because most of it was in civil partnerships"
Instead he rubbed his social conservative core's face in it, and show-boated it for all he was worth, and insulted anyone on the right of his party who expressed even qualified reservation to the policy. .
Maybe, that will be cold comfort on the opposition benches now the traditionalists have moved to join the kippers.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agree entirely. He did the right thing in the right way. In doing so he set a benchmark for what we should consider acceptable behaviour regarding the State's relationship with the citizen.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.
It was the conservatives clause 4 moment, that dave stumbled on by chance.0 -
There will be no DUP bums on ministerial seats, which is why you can rule out a coalitionTheScreamingEagles said:
Is why I've ruled out a Con/DUP coalition.Alanbrooke said:
yeah except it was the wrong C4 moment - fine for happy prosperous times, but in a recession when voters were hurting he needed to C4 on wealth and privilege not social issues.Pong said:
The traditionalists are literally dying off.Indigo said:
Pffft. It wasn't mentioned the entire campaign, didn't appear in the manifesto, until four days before the election we brought out "Contract for Equalities" which said it would 'consider' recognising civil partnerships as marriage if elected, no wonder the traditionalists were pissed off. If that had been a whipped vote the party would have imploded on the spot, and Cameron knew he didn't have to because it would carry on Labour votes.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.Indigo said:He had the option to quietly ease in Gay Marriage without a big song and dance, to sell it as some "tidying up", and deprecate it as "not a big deal because most of it was in civil partnerships"
Instead he rubbed his social conservative core's face in it, and show-boated it for all he was worth, and insulted anyone on the right of his party who expressed even qualified reservation to the policy. .
Maybe, that will be cold comfort on the opposition benches now the traditionalists have moved to join the kippers.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agree entirely. He did the right thing in the right way. In doing so he set a benchmark for what we should consider acceptable behaviour regarding the State's relationship with the citizen.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. That is pure fantasy. What's more, it was a free vote.
It was the conservatives clause 4 moment, that dave stumbled on by chance.
Can you imagine the Save Ulster from Sodomy lot propping up the PM that introduced Gay Marriage.
The DUP will willingly confidence and supply either Ed or Dave for cash for Stormont, besides sodomy is a devolved issue I believe.0 -
Mr. Indigo, must agree that it's odd and sets an unwanted precedent.
If anyone still living has been found guilty of laws now defunct relating to homosexuality, then I'd support having that stain removed from the public record. But rewriting history to pardon those long dead by imposing modern morality upon the past is bizarre.
Are we to consider William the Conqueror an illegitimate head of state and start hunting down Harold's descendants for the 'true' monarch?
Will Thomas More be pardoned?0 -
OT. Very interesting interview with senior ex jihadi on Radio 4 this morning. Very much the thoughtful Arab that I invariably meet when I've worked in any of the Middle Eastern countries. for the most part better informed of world affairs and significantly more subtle in their reasoning than you find here or in the US. A generalisation I know but something that always strikes me.0
-
Yes I think a lot of people do think they are owed a pardon. There are people alive today who have a conviction on the record for something that is not and should not be a crime. We are not just talking about platitudes for the dead, but pardons for the living too.Indigo said:
This revisionist apologising tendency is getting quite nauseous tbh, lots of people did lots of things years ago which we now view as wrong other people did things then viewed as wrong about which we now have no problem, in the same way as lots of things we do now will be views as immoral in fifty years time, to we continue to mouth platitudes to the dead for ever more ?JonnyJimmy said:"I think we owe it to the LGBT community to make this move" Weirdo Ed in Gay Times
Do any members of the LGBT community feel they are owed a pardon for the homosexuals long ago convicted for buggery?
Have you got a single good reason why we shouldn't pardon the living of "crimes" that should not be?0 -
@Thescreamingeagles I'm not sure if you've done it in your post, but the way alot of the media is banding about the word coalition when they actually mean one of:
Coalition
Confidence & supply
Bill by bill support
Really ticks me off.0 -
Won on the playing fields of Eton and a vital role played by regiments of Scots. (okay, that's enough flogging of a crap metaphor - ed)MarqueeMark said:
On the 200th anniversary of Waterloo, it seems appropriate that this years election should be "a damned close run thing..."TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, better late than never.
0 -
I use coalition in the way that Shadsy will pay out.Pulpstar said:@Thescreamingeagles I'm not sure if you've done it in your post, but the way alot of the media is banding about the word coalition when they actually mean one of:
Coalition
Confidence & supply
Bill by bill support
Really ticks me off.
IE a formal coalition.0 -
Not the CAGE spokesman (Asim Qureshi?), seeking to blame the security services for radicalising terrorists? Dreadful man, but a reasonable interview by Mishal Husain.Roger said:OT. Very interesting interview with senior ex jihadi on Radio 4 this morning. Very much the thoughtful Arab that I invariably meet when I've worked in any of the Middle Eastern countries. for the most part better informed of world affairs and significantly more subtle in their reasoning than you find here or in the US. A generalisation I know but something that always strikes me.
0 -
What are your thoughts on potential DUP c&s for both sides ? And on DUP c&s for a Con-Lib Dem coalition. I can honestly see it coming to that.TheScreamingEagles said:
I use coalition in the way that Shadsy will pay out.Pulpstar said:@Thescreamingeagles I'm not sure if you've done it in your post, but the way alot of the media is banding about the word coalition when they actually mean one of:
Coalition
Confidence & supply
Bill by bill support
Really ticks me off.
IE a formal coalition.0 -
Because they were. If society becomes substantially more conservative in a few generations and these actions become criminal again, do we then un-pardon them ? Treating the law as saying anything other than what it said at the time of the alleged crime, for good or ill is the road to the madhouse.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes I think a lot of people do think they are owed a pardon. There are people alive today who have a conviction on the record for something that is not and should not be a crime. We are not just talking about platitudes for the dead, but pardons for the living too.Indigo said:
This revisionist apologising tendency is getting quite nauseous tbh, lots of people did lots of things years ago which we now view as wrong other people did things then viewed as wrong about which we now have no problem, in the same way as lots of things we do now will be views as immoral in fifty years time, to we continue to mouth platitudes to the dead for ever more ?JonnyJimmy said:"I think we owe it to the LGBT community to make this move" Weirdo Ed in Gay Times
Do any members of the LGBT community feel they are owed a pardon for the homosexuals long ago convicted for buggery?
Have you got a single good reason why we shouldn't pardon the living of "crimes" that should not be?
When the law was changed, did it contain a ex post facto clause retroactively changing the status of people convicted under the old law ?0 -
Gordon Brown offered The DUP a lot of pork and they voted with Labour on some key issues.Pulpstar said:
What are your thoughts on potential DUP c&s for both sides ? And on DUP c&s for a Con-Lib Dem coalition. I can honestly see it coming to that.TheScreamingEagles said:
I use coalition in the way that Shadsy will pay out.Pulpstar said:@Thescreamingeagles I'm not sure if you've done it in your post, but the way alot of the media is banding about the word coalition when they actually mean one of:
Coalition
Confidence & supply
Bill by bill support
Really ticks me off.
IE a formal coalition.
I suspect they will enter into a Confidence and Supply arrangement with whichever party offers enough pork.
My other prediction is we won't have a guaranteed five year coalition. Maybe 2/3 years and a possible break clause.0 -
On topic -
Yes it looks as though the Tories are pulling it out the bag at the right time.
The economic news has been overwelmingly positive for many months with barely a flicker of bad news. Even the borrowing figures, which had lagged the GDP and the spectacular employment figures, nicley plopped into place last month.
I wonder if a few backbench Tory MPs might look wryly at David Cameron in the next few weeks and quote Marty McFly in Back to The Future 3: "why do we always have to run these things so damn close?!"0 -
What did he do after fighting in the Balkans, I only got to that bit of the interview.Roger said:OT. Very interesting interview with senior ex jihadi on Radio 4 this morning. Very much the thoughtful Arab that I invariably meet when I've worked in any of the Middle Eastern countries. for the most part better informed of world affairs and significantly more subtle in their reasoning than you find here or in the US. A generalisation I know but something that always strikes me.
0 -
I'm generally more in favour or writing history, than rewriting it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, must agree that it's odd and sets an unwanted precedent.
If anyone still living has been found guilty of laws now defunct relating to homosexuality, then I'd support having that stain removed from the public record. But rewriting history to pardon those long dead by imposing modern morality upon the past is bizarre.
Are we to consider William the Conqueror an illegitimate head of state and start hunting down Harold's descendants for the 'true' monarch?
Will Thomas More be pardoned?
How about installing a statue of alan turing (with a semi visible erection) on the fourth plinth?
The daily mail comments server would explode.0 -
Wherea, of course, a pedant with expertise in the art would appreciate we are talking about a singular right (to form a partnership with the adult of your choice) but in one case it is a circumscribed right.NickPalmer said:
The sentiment is good, but parties that can't tell the difference between "less" and "fewer" will never get a pedant swing vote...Charles said:And I wouldn't support a party that tells a significant percentage of the population that they have less rights than other citizens simply because of their sexual preferences.
I will acknowledge that, in my haste, I typed "less rights" rather than "a lesser right" but utterly contest the concept of it being "fewer rights"0 -
I think the Conservatives will win Thornbury & Yate. Which is a shame, as Steve Webb is one of my favourite LibDems.0
-
So people who were slaves prior to the abolition of slavery should have continued to be slaves?Indigo said:
Because they were. If society becomes substantially more conservative in a few generations and these actions become criminal again, do we then un-pardon them ? Treating the law as saying anything other than what it said at the time of the alleged crime, for good or ill is the road to the madhouse.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes I think a lot of people do think they are owed a pardon. There are people alive today who have a conviction on the record for something that is not and should not be a crime. We are not just talking about platitudes for the dead, but pardons for the living too.Indigo said:
This revisionist apologising tendency is getting quite nauseous tbh, lots of people did lots of things years ago which we now view as wrong other people did things then viewed as wrong about which we now have no problem, in the same way as lots of things we do now will be views as immoral in fifty years time, to we continue to mouth platitudes to the dead for ever more ?JonnyJimmy said:"I think we owe it to the LGBT community to make this move" Weirdo Ed in Gay Times
Do any members of the LGBT community feel they are owed a pardon for the homosexuals long ago convicted for buggery?
Have you got a single good reason why we shouldn't pardon the living of "crimes" that should not be?
The notion of pardons for things that are no longer wrong is far from unprecedented. There is a very simple way to draw the line: You can pardon people of things that are not a crime now, that is why the ability to issue pardons exists in the first place. A conviction the other way around is not a thing that exists, there is no such thing as an "un-pardon".
We are not talking about an unprecedented idea that opens the floodgates.
0 -
The only way that would happen is under a theocracy. If the UK is being governed by clerics of any stripe, then the re-criminalisation of homosexuality would only be a part of the deep, deep shit we'd be in.Indigo said:
If society becomes substantially more conservative in a few generations and these actions become criminal again, do we then un-pardon them ? Treating the law as saying anything other than what it said at the time of the alleged crime, for good or ill is the road to the madhouse.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes I think a lot of people do think they are owed a pardon. There are people alive today who have a conviction on the record for something that is not and should not be a crime. We are not just talking about platitudes for the dead, but pardons for the living too.Indigo said:
This revisionist apologising tendency is getting quite nauseous tbh, lots of people did lots of things years ago which we now view as wrong other people did things then viewed as wrong about which we now have no problem, in the same way as lots of things we do now will be views as immoral in fifty years time, to we continue to mouth platitudes to the dead for ever more ?JonnyJimmy said:"I think we owe it to the LGBT community to make this move" Weirdo Ed in Gay Times
Do any members of the LGBT community feel they are owed a pardon for the homosexuals long ago convicted for buggery?
Have you got a single good reason why we shouldn't pardon the living of "crimes" that should not be?0 -
I guess if Con + LD gets to 315 then the DUP doesn't actually have to give c&s even, they could just abstein the budget.TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown offered The DUP a lot of pork and they voted with Labour on some key issues.Pulpstar said:
What are your thoughts on potential DUP c&s for both sides ? And on DUP c&s for a Con-Lib Dem coalition. I can honestly see it coming to that.TheScreamingEagles said:
I use coalition in the way that Shadsy will pay out.Pulpstar said:@Thescreamingeagles I'm not sure if you've done it in your post, but the way alot of the media is banding about the word coalition when they actually mean one of:
Coalition
Confidence & supply
Bill by bill support
Really ticks me off.
IE a formal coalition.
I suspect they will enter into a Confidence and Supply arrangement with whichever party offers enough pork.
My other prediction is we won't have a guaranteed five year coalition. Maybe 2/3 years and a possible break clause.0 -
Watcher
NO! This man is a Saudi Arabian who realised the irreconcilable contradictions of the jihad and then for some years worked for Mi5 and 6 until his cover was blown by a book published in the US0 -
Would be apt after we chemically castrated him.Pong said:
I'm generally more in favour or writing history, than rewriting it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, must agree that it's odd and sets an unwanted precedent.
If anyone still living has been found guilty of laws now defunct relating to homosexuality, then I'd support having that stain removed from the public record. But rewriting history to pardon those long dead by imposing modern morality upon the past is bizarre.
Are we to consider William the Conqueror an illegitimate head of state and start hunting down Harold's descendants for the 'true' monarch?
Will Thomas More be pardoned?
How about installing a statue of alan turing (with a semi visible erection) on the fourth plinth?
The daily mail comments server would explode.0 -
Will be posthumous knighthoods for Russian spies next...TheScreamingEagles said:I'd prefer if they were quashed rather than this, but sometimes you have to accept what is on offer
Ed Miliband has today pledged that a future Labour Government will offer posthumous pardons for gay men convicted under historic indecency laws.
The new legislation will allow the family and friends of deceased men to apply to the Home Office to quash convictions under the historic ‘gross indecency’ law for consensual same-sex relationships.
This law will be known as Turing’s Law in memory of Alan Turing – the Enigma code-breaker – who was convicted of ‘gross indecency’ in 1952 and has subsequently received a posthumous Royal pardon.
http://press.labour.org.uk/post/112595562364/ed-miliband-pledges-the-next-labour-government0 -
Is Roger referring to the CAGE interview, or the much earlier segment on the 'spy'?Pulpstar said:
What did he do after fighting in the Balkans, I only got to that bit of the interview.Roger said:OT. Very interesting interview with senior ex jihadi on Radio 4 this morning. Very much the thoughtful Arab that I invariably meet when I've worked in any of the Middle Eastern countries. for the most part better informed of world affairs and significantly more subtle in their reasoning than you find here or in the US. A generalisation I know but something that always strikes me.
0 -
Bloody Hell,rcs1000 said:I think the Conservatives will win Thornbury & Yate. Which is a shame, as Steve Webb is one of my favourite LibDems.
If T&Y goes that leaves the Lib Dems with possibly JUST Faron. Perhaps Yeovil, Eastleigh maybe, Bath, Twickenham perhaps but sub 10 seats for sure.0 -
The one just after 9 on the spy I think.TheWatcher said:
Is Roger referring to the CAGE interview, or the much earlier segment on the 'spy'?Pulpstar said:
What did he do after fighting in the Balkans, I only got to that bit of the interview.Roger said:OT. Very interesting interview with senior ex jihadi on Radio 4 this morning. Very much the thoughtful Arab that I invariably meet when I've worked in any of the Middle Eastern countries. for the most part better informed of world affairs and significantly more subtle in their reasoning than you find here or in the US. A generalisation I know but something that always strikes me.
0 -
Con-Lab-UKIP tricast? Close to value that - if the Tories do come back and win it's more likely to be at UKIP's expense. Would back it at 10s.isam said:Jackie Doyle Price MP for Thurrock saying on twitter she is 4% ahead...
She is using the election forecast tables, which actually put her 3 points ahead of labour with Ukip in 3rd
I'll offer 8/1 that is the correct order0 -
It would also mean that Lord Ashcroft's polls would be best used as toilet paper:Pulpstar said:
Bloody Hell,rcs1000 said:I think the Conservatives will win Thornbury & Yate. Which is a shame, as Steve Webb is one of my favourite LibDems.
If T&Y goes that leaves the Lib Dems with possibly JUST Faron. Perhaps Yeovil, Eastleigh maybe, Bath, Twickenham perhaps but sub 10 seats for sure.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/thornbury-yate/0 -
Surely if Clegg,Alexander,Swinson,Webb etc have all been ejected the remaining Lib DemsPulpstar said:
I guess if Con + LD gets to 315 then the DUP doesn't actually have to give c&s even, they could just abstein the budget.TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown offered The DUP a lot of pork and they voted with Labour on some key issues.Pulpstar said:
What are your thoughts on potential DUP c&s for both sides ? And on DUP c&s for a Con-Lib Dem coalition. I can honestly see it coming to that.TheScreamingEagles said:
I use coalition in the way that Shadsy will pay out.Pulpstar said:@Thescreamingeagles I'm not sure if you've done it in your post, but the way alot of the media is banding about the word coalition when they actually mean one of:
Coalition
Confidence & supply
Bill by bill support
Really ticks me off.
IE a formal coalition.
I suspect they will enter into a Confidence and Supply arrangement with whichever party offers enough pork.
My other prediction is we won't have a guaranteed five year coalition. Maybe 2/3 years and a possible break clause.
who include people like Huppert wont necessarily allow the Tories to govern again and may back the Rainbow Coalition as a way of trying to start detoxification in advance of 2020?
0 -
That is one of a small number of ways one could envisage. Before we got as far as a theocracy one could posit the sort of scenario in Michel Houellebecq's book that caused so much fuss in France, in effect a large (minority) Islamic population with well used block votes voting either gets a party to power, or influence, and the politicians of the day can see that they are selling their votes to a deeply conservative audience. The other alternative is that the world is going to become far more Asia dominated, and specifically Chinese dominated over the next half a century, which is going to have all sorts of interesting knock on effects. Do I think its likely, no.Anorak said:The only way that would happen is under a theocracy. If the UK is being governed by clerics of any stripe, then the criminilisation of homosexuality would only be a part of the deep, deep shit we'd be in.
0 -
Miliband is the least popular Labour Prime Ministerial choice in thirty years, well behind Neil Kinnock in both his 1987 and 1992 campaigns.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11446252/Campaign-Calculus-Only-Ed-Miliband-can-stop-Labour-now.html0 -
The earlier interview after 7am then. The CAGE apologist was on much later.Roger said:Watcher
NO! This man is a Saudi Arabian who realised the irreconcilable contradictions of the jihad and then for some years worked for Mi5 and 6 until his cover was blown by a book published in the US0 -
2.5% value disagreementTissue_Price said:
Con-Lab-UKIP tricast? Close to value that - if the Tories do come back and win it's more likely to be at UKIP's expense. Would back it at 10s.isam said:Jackie Doyle Price MP for Thurrock saying on twitter she is 4% ahead...
She is using the election forecast tables, which actually put her 3 points ahead of labour with Ukip in 3rd
I'll offer 8/1 that is the correct order
0 -
Well quite - which is why the more sophisticated models have them holding it by 20-odd percent.antifrank said:
It would also mean that Lord Ashcroft's polls would be best used as toilet paper:Pulpstar said:
Bloody Hell,rcs1000 said:I think the Conservatives will win Thornbury & Yate. Which is a shame, as Steve Webb is one of my favourite LibDems.
If T&Y goes that leaves the Lib Dems with possibly JUST Faron. Perhaps Yeovil, Eastleigh maybe, Bath, Twickenham perhaps but sub 10 seats for sure.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/thornbury-yate/0 -
I think that a pretty poor parallel, those people still were slaves, they are not now, in the same way as those actions were criminal a number of years ago, but the same people performing them now would not be criminalised.Philip_Thompson said:
So people who were slaves prior to the abolition of slavery should have continued to be slaves?Indigo said:
Because they were. If society becomes substantially more conservative in a few generations and these actions become criminal again, do we then un-pardon them ? Treating the law as saying anything other than what it said at the time of the alleged crime, for good or ill is the road to the madhouse.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes I think a lot of people do think they are owed a pardon. There are people alive today who have a conviction on the record for something that is not and should not be a crime. We are not just talking about platitudes for the dead, but pardons for the living too.Indigo said:
This revisionist apologising tendency is getting quite nauseous tbh, lots of people did lots of things years ago which we now view as wrong other people did things then viewed as wrong about which we now have no problem, in the same way as lots of things we do now will be views as immoral in fifty years time, to we continue to mouth platitudes to the dead for ever more ?JonnyJimmy said:"I think we owe it to the LGBT community to make this move" Weirdo Ed in Gay Times
Do any members of the LGBT community feel they are owed a pardon for the homosexuals long ago convicted for buggery?
Have you got a single good reason why we shouldn't pardon the living of "crimes" that should not be?
0 -
Pulpstar
Went to Afghanistan and was finally flawed by the false logic of the Nairobi bombing. Interesting that he said it all began in Bosnia. The Balkans are gaining quite a reputation for being at the start of some significant world events0 -
Webb is one of the most disgusting Lib Dems...the sight of him laughing along with IDS as opposition Members spoke of the suicides and food bank use that have resulted from the Bedroom Tax will live long in the memory of this shabby coalition long after it has been terminated.rcs1000 said:I think the Conservatives will win Thornbury & Yate. Which is a shame, as Steve Webb is one of my favourite LibDems.
That is one Tory gain that I wouldn't mind one bit
0 -
Seems the narrative is changing following yesterdays positive polls for the Conservatives and the campaign hasn't started yet. This weekend is supposed to bring lovely Spring weather with a heat wave predicted for Easter. A continuing positive economic climate, the Sun, Mail, Telegraph, Times and possibly the Express going for Ed Miliband, the prospects of a large SNP presence in the Commons together with a warm Spring, is likely to have a substantial effect on the polling in favour of the Conservatives and also the Coalition0
-
Well I could get 11/2 on the Tories anyway. 8/1 for the tricast is making Labour about 4/11 to come 2nd if the Tories win, whereas 10/1 makes them more like 4/6. So the difference gets magnified.Pulpstar said:
2.5% value disagreementTissue_Price said:
Con-Lab-UKIP tricast? Close to value that - if the Tories do come back and win it's more likely to be at UKIP's expense. Would back it at 10s.isam said:Jackie Doyle Price MP for Thurrock saying on twitter she is 4% ahead...
She is using the election forecast tables, which actually put her 3 points ahead of labour with Ukip in 3rd
I'll offer 8/1 that is the correct order0 -
As the Good Lord says his polls are a snapshot and not a prediction.antifrank said:
It would also mean that Lord Ashcroft's polls would be best used as toilet paper:Pulpstar said:
Bloody Hell,rcs1000 said:I think the Conservatives will win Thornbury & Yate. Which is a shame, as Steve Webb is one of my favourite LibDems.
If T&Y goes that leaves the Lib Dems with possibly JUST Faron. Perhaps Yeovil, Eastleigh maybe, Bath, Twickenham perhaps but sub 10 seats for sure.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/thornbury-yate/
That said I'd be amazed if Steve Webb lost.0 -
R4 did the whole interview from 9am, 'a change from our listed program.'TheWatcher said:
The earlier interview after 7am then. The CAGE apologist was on much later.Roger said:Watcher
NO! This man is a Saudi Arabian who realised the irreconcilable contradictions of the jihad and then for some years worked for Mi5 and 6 until his cover was blown by a book published in the US0 -
There definitely seems to be an urgency about the press to secure a Conservative victory that appears to be greater than 2010 right now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Seems the narrative is changing following yesterdays positive polls for the Conservatives and the campaign hasn't started yet. This weekend is supposed to bring lovely Spring weather with a heat wave predicted for Easter. A continuing positive economic climate, the Sun, Mail, Telegraph, Times and possibly the Express going for Ed Miliband, the prospects of a large SNP presence in the Commons together with a warm Spring, is likely to have a substantial effect on the polling in favour of the Conservatives and also the Coalition
0 -
Watcher
The spy who came in from al Qaida. 45 mins started at 9.000 -
Well Ed is reaping what he sowed in that regard.Pulpstar said:
There definitely seems to be an urgency about the press to secure a Conservative victory that appears to be greater than 2010 right now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Seems the narrative is changing following yesterdays positive polls for the Conservatives and the campaign hasn't started yet. This weekend is supposed to bring lovely Spring weather with a heat wave predicted for Easter. A continuing positive economic climate, the Sun, Mail, Telegraph, Times and possibly the Express going for Ed Miliband, the prospects of a large SNP presence in the Commons together with a warm Spring, is likely to have a substantial effect on the polling in favour of the Conservatives and also the Coalition
0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11446252/Campaign-Calculus-Only-Ed-Miliband-can-stop-Labour-now.htmlScott_P said:Miliband is the least popular Labour Prime Ministerial choice in thirty years, well behind Neil Kinnock in both his 1987 and 1992 campaigns.
The article states that Labour policies are far more popular than the Tories and that only the supposed unpopularity of Ed can stop them winning.
If that unpopularity is either not as great as suggested or he changes that with a reasonable campaign the Tories are toast according to your own link
0 -
We had an interesting energy debate here the other day. This is potentially very significant:
http://www.physics-astronomy.com/2015/02/lockheed-martins-new-compact-fusion.html#.VPN5li40fh7
The holy grail of the energy world is to achieve a relatively cheap easy and scalable fusion reaction. It looks very much as if this will be achieved in the not too distant future. And then the Middle East is fucked.0 -
If there was such a thing as rationing of food, and somebody was found to be defrauding the rations and over claiming that would be a crime
If years later we found that the need for rationing had been over stated, and therefore the rations were too strict, would we pardon the man who took more than his fair share?0 -
Cameron may be playing rope a dope at the moment but I wish he wouldn't.0
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Heard every two yars for the last forty. Hope you're right this time, but I'm not holding my breath.Patrick said:We had an interesting energy debate here the other day. This is potentially very significant:
http://www.physics-astronomy.com/2015/02/lockheed-martins-new-compact-fusion.html#.VPN5li40fh7
The holy grail of the energy world is to achieve a relatively cheap easy and scalable fusion reaction. It looks very much as if this will be achieved in the not too distant future. And then the Middle East is fucked.
The fall out from collapsing economies in the ME would be appalling. Would be more like the Mongols sacking Baghdad than anything ISIS has done.0 -
@coolagorna
Ed has to fight the vested interests of the media owners to get his message across.
Unless they manage an asymmetric campaign, it is unlikely that the party will be able to make the headway needed.0 -
Classy analogy.isam said:If there was such a thing as rationing of food, and somebody was found to be defrauding the rations and over claiming that would be a crime
If years later we found that the need for rationing had been over stated, and therefore the rations were too strict, would we pardon the man who took more than his fair share?0 -
The article states that Labour policies are far more popular than the Tories and that only the supposed unpopularity of Ed can stop them winning.coolagorna said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11446252/Campaign-Calculus-Only-Ed-Miliband-can-stop-Labour-now.htmlScott_P said:Miliband is the least popular Labour Prime Ministerial choice in thirty years, well behind Neil Kinnock in both his 1987 and 1992 campaigns.
If that unpopularity is either not as great as suggested or he changes that with a reasonable campaign the Tories are toast according to your own link
That's written in full length lines... What have done with the real, four-words-per-line coolagorna?0 -
Interestingly the only area of the UK where he has the press almost all the press coverage broadly behind him is where he is doing worst.Tissue_Price said:
Well Ed is reaping what he sowed in that regard.Pulpstar said:
There definitely seems to be an urgency about the press to secure a Conservative victory that appears to be greater than 2010 right now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Seems the narrative is changing following yesterdays positive polls for the Conservatives and the campaign hasn't started yet. This weekend is supposed to bring lovely Spring weather with a heat wave predicted for Easter. A continuing positive economic climate, the Sun, Mail, Telegraph, Times and possibly the Express going for Ed Miliband, the prospects of a large SNP presence in the Commons together with a warm Spring, is likely to have a substantial effect on the polling in favour of the Conservatives and also the Coalition
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Good, ridding the world of the House of Saud's influence would be an enormous social step forward for the planet.Patrick said:We had an interesting energy debate here the other day. This is potentially very significant:
http://www.physics-astronomy.com/2015/02/lockheed-martins-new-compact-fusion.html#.VPN5li40fh7
The holy grail of the energy world is to achieve a relatively cheap easy and scalable fusion reaction. It looks very much as if this will be achieved in the not too distant future. And then the Middle East is fucked.0 -
If I were a gay man who had been convicted of being gay when it was an offence I would be quite proud and like it to be known that I was the kind of person who was true to himself and proven rightTissue_Price said:
Classy analogy.isam said:If there was such a thing as rationing of food, and somebody was found to be defrauding the rations and over claiming that would be a crime
If years later we found that the need for rationing had been over stated, and therefore the rations were too strict, would we pardon the man who took more than his fair share?
Seems to me it benefits the establishment more than the individual to put the prosecution down the memory hole0 -
In other words I made the right price, cheersTissue_Price said:
Well I could get 11/2 on the Tories anyway. 8/1 for the tricast is making Labour about 4/11 to come 2nd if the Tories win, whereas 10/1 makes them more like 4/6. So the difference gets magnified.Pulpstar said:
2.5% value disagreementTissue_Price said:
Con-Lab-UKIP tricast? Close to value that - if the Tories do come back and win it's more likely to be at UKIP's expense. Would back it at 10s.isam said:Jackie Doyle Price MP for Thurrock saying on twitter she is 4% ahead...
She is using the election forecast tables, which actually put her 3 points ahead of labour with Ukip in 3rd
I'll offer 8/1 that is the correct order0 -
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The detail of today's YouGov reveals a Tory lead of 2.15%. Rounding of party % shares put it up to 3%.0
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God I hope he has a painful death.Pong said:This is pretty horiffic;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-31698154
Excellent journalism though.0
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