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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » February’s PB Polling Average: Crossover
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » February’s PB Polling Average: Crossover
Two months out from the election and from the Politicalbetting Polling Average, the Tories look to be coming into form at the right time. I say ‘look to be’ because there is a little more to it than meets the eye, but first the numbers for February, which are:
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Crossover - just glorious!
FPT, but worth reading - excellent article from Janan Ganesh:
The opposition Labour party can win, just as Mr Heath won in 1970, but it will not be given a mandate to do as much as it would like. Yes, Britons are grouchy about the governing Tories’ out-of-touchness, the runaway success of the rich, the misdeeds of the political class, the magnitude of immigration. But a mood of vague cussedness — otherwise known as being British — does not equal a demand to revise the national economic model from first principles, which is what Ed Miliband had in mind at the start of his Labour leadership.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b5d3633e-c0d3-11e4-876d-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3TIMn0H9s
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2976526/Give-shoplifters-softer-sentences-steal-stores-Labour-MP-David-Lammy-says-luxury-shops-Fortnam-Mason-absorb-losses.html
Far later in the day than anticipated.
1. We have passed peak kipper and its now downhill. Despite all the polls showing that a significant portion of UKIP voters didn't vote for anyone last time and don't care about not having a Tory government, their voters do in fact "go home" when faced with a hard choice of Cameron or Milliband
2. UKIP have been on the telly only in a negative light (all their own fault thanks to policy contradictions and the people on "Meet the Ukippers") hence their decline, but come the short campaign they are a major party and we'll get a lot of Farage coverage. Whilst Tories and the left hate him, he is a lodestone figure for anti-Cameron right leaning protest votes. As we have seen in previous non-GE election cycles when he is front and centre the UKIP vote soars.
A re-boosted UKIP score and its all over for the Tories. Never mind the Tories losing half a dozen or so seats to UKIP, its all the seats where an improved Labour vote and a split Tory vote puts Labour in even when the right collectively have more votes.
Its all going to come down to the maths in the Commons. Without Labour's implosion in Scotland even this crossover position would be enough for a majority. Without the LibDems implosion everywhere Con+LD would be looking at a comfortable re-election. What we do know is that the polls are ludicrously volatile and they are volatile because there are huge numbers of don't knows and not sures out there. Neither of the two big parties have really engaged properly with the electorate and that means almost anything is possible.
Regardless of your party allegiance its going to be one of the most interesting elections in a long time.
Could the MODS put a link to the first (and subsequent) 'Predict the Number of seats' thread to save wading back? Ta very muchly.......
My only quibble with Mr Ganesh' otherwise excellent article 'that this is a 'no change election in Britain' I don't think holds true in Scotland.....
A lot of people who haven't woken up to the fact that there's an election in a few weeks. Once its called they will. And then its all to play for.
The socially liberal Cameroon tendency and the Coalitionistas would revolt - and I very much doubt Cameron would touch Farage with a bargepole......
Post-election, centre-right voters will have a better idea of which party is best-placed to defeat Labour, in any given seat.
140 minutes 140 seconds
The Tories need to drive Labour's support down but after a long period of falling it enjoyed a modest bounce in February. How does the Tories get at that 1 in 6? Well, they have little time and few options but as I said yesterday they must try to use the budget to set the agenda for the next Parliament, not just to boast about what they have achieved in this one.
Yesterday there were calls for some blue meat to re-engage disaffected blues but for me the key is policies that could attract some of those 1 in 6. An increase in the NMW. A freezing of duties to reflect the low inflation environment. Possibly another increase in the personal allowance giving a wage increase in time for the election.
Osborne has a limited pot and one of the key reasons that 1 in 6 exists is that he is seen as responsible (in contrast to the 2 Eds at least) and he must not undermine that. There will be more promises about what will be done in the future than what can be done right now but he must find ways to get the biggest bang for his limited bucks.
Con: 35 (+3)
Lab: 32 (-9)
LibD: 7 (-1)
UKIP: 15 (+3)
SNP/PC: 6 (+2)
Green: 4 (+3)
On 'issues facing the country - Con lead vs Lab:
NHS: -10 (+3)
Immigration: +7 (n/c)
Laura Norder: +15 (+4)
Education: -1 (+5)
Tax: +13 (+13)
Unemployment: +3 (+7)
Economy: +17 (+9)
Europe: +1 (+2)
Benefits: -1 (+1)
Housing: -7 (not asked)
Tories frothing about the EU is never a good look and chasing UKIP supporters on that basis will (a) not work and (b) upset the 1 in 6.
If DC is to be PM after the election I think he needs to get Labour sub 30. It is a big ask but it is possible.
Unite boss Red Len is force behind Labour
EXCLUSIVE: Multiple connections between union and party
NEARLY half of all Labour candidates and MPs standing in the Election have links to “Red Len” McCluskey and his Unite union.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6353235/Unite-boss-Red-Len-McCluskey-is-force-behind-Labour.html
That 1 in 6 is worth just over 5% and they are the key to this election.
Apparent fact = general perception, true or not!
Or a new CSA scandal, which might hurt any party depending who is involved. The government has new proposals all over the front pages. A good idea; serious proposals to end this scourge; or getting their retaliation in early because they know more revelations are coming?
Events, dear boy, events.
Any successful political party worth it's salt can both retain its core *and* win over floating voters. It's not an either or choice. It's about building a broad coalition of support. And different policies will appeal to different groups, with leadership, a plan for the future, the economy and competence the key icing on the cake.
If you can't ride two horses at once you shouldn't be in the circus.
Another NHS scandal that happened largely on Labour's watch:
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-03-02/turf-war-led-to-deaths-of-30-deaths-mothers-and-babies/
The CQC report done in Spring of 2010 (in the dying days of the Labour government) seems to have been fairly inadequate, though recently there was a payout as compensation to one of its leaders:
http://www.nwemail.co.uk/home/payout-for-furness-general-hospital-cover-up-row-cqc-chief-1.1180345#.VIgt9l5OW7c.twitter
I did point out at the time of the Staffs enquiry that it was not an isolated scandal.
If Labour are falling behind following a week of money laundering, tax evasion, second jobs and increased immigration, concentrating on the NHS may help. Or not.
Simply focussing on the YouGov polls shows something is going on...
It is said the Loyalty is "the expectation of favours to come", its no good giving people something which they could get from Labour anyway, it has to be something they won't get from Labour, and would probably lose if Labour win.
Who knows what fate might have awaited him had this gone on much longer.
Sybil!
If it had delivered on its 2010GE manifesto in areas like IHT cut, immigration reduction, married couple support, repeal the hunting ban and achieved much more in the way of EU concessions I'd probably agree with you entirely.
If people with high incomes should pay more for breaking the same law (so that the punishment can be deemed to have equal effect) couldn't you also argue that rich people won't notice something being stolen because it's a smaller percentage of their wealth?
The world is a more unstable place than it was in 2010.
There is the war with militant Islam in its many guises, in N, West and East Africa, in the Middle East and Indian sub-con, as well as rumblings from the Russian Bear.
Economically, the EZ is still a mess (as it just had to be) and people are starting to wake up to the fact that Brussels is steering the EU car with a foot hard on the accelerator instead of the member nations. A lot of |Europe depends on Russia for energy and energy security will be a major factor in the next 5 years. China will acquire more European businesses.
The hawks could gain power in Washington with the usual unknown but potentially disastrous consequences.
EdM is not rated as a leader and does not have the presence or bearing of a leader whose voice would be heard globally. That weakness could cost him 2015GE.
If we allow people to suppose different sentences will result from committing the same crime against different targets, before the crime has been committed, all it will do is drive people toward committing the crime with the lighter sentence. So in the above case more crimes will be committed against posh shops than normal shops. Allowing a criminal to select the target of his crime according to the likely sentence has always been thought to be a bad idea.
Swingback, if it is occurring at all, is modest and late. Only a rapid acceleration from here can get the Tories to victory. Was Yougov and Ashcroft yesterday harbingers of that? Very hard to tell.
Tonight's Yougov will be of more interest than normal.
In Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells seats, they take votes off the Tories, but still finish a long way behind.
Genuinely curious - can you explain?
On IHT: I'd say watch this space - budget on 18th may well flag up a juicy inducement, but further down the road.
On Married Couples: I thought the tax break had been introduced?
He had the option to quietly ease in Gay Marriage without a big song and dance, to sell it as some "tidying up", and deprecate it as "not a big deal because most of it was in civil partnerships"
Instead he rubbed his social conservative core's face in it, and show-boated it for all he was worth, and insulted anyone on the right of his party who expressed even qualified reservation to the policy. One assumes this was to impress the Guardian and try and attract some of their voters, always a futile idea because Guardian readers can get their social liberalism from Labour with added "cuddly austerity".
Steal £100 of goods from F&M and they won't notice.
Steal £100 from Ye Olde Corner Shop and that's a big chunk of their daily profits.
Hence shorter sentence for the F&M scenario because they have suffered less damage from the crime.
The LDs forced the most popular policy for white van man by raising low paid tax thresholds while Osborne was pointlessly pushing the least popular in the 50p rate.
The Conservatives won't get core voters back on board until they recognise where they screwed up and correct it.
Blaimng the LDs for their own failures just says Cameroons are spineless about recognising their mistakes.
Greece is apparently stealing the last of their pension funds to pay the IMF this week.
The contrast with the way that Tony Blair pushed forward John Prescott to talk to Labour's traditional base is telling.
I appreciate you've been busy lately, but the idea behind FPTP is to get the most votes...
Gay marriage was an important part of repositioning the Tories as a modern, inclusive party. It was necessary to buy them the "right to be heard" by significant parts of the electorate.
Societies change. Gay marriage's time had come.
Overall the blue standing has changed too much, but the reds have gone down. Not sure how much further Labour will fall, though. Whilst they do have Miliband, they also face a coalition and so benefit greatly from that.
Not only that it suggests that the size of an establishment, or the price of their goods in any way reflects their profitability, which is at best an assumption, and having seen some quite large names go bust over the last decade, quite a dubious one compared to some well run smaller chains etc.
so if you are gay, well off, socially liberal and metropolitan the Tories are the party for you.
ask antifrank how he's voting.
Firstly in addition to the now twice weekly ARSE & "JackW Dozen" projections on Tuesday and Saturday there will an eve of poll Super ARSE at 10pm on Thursday 6th May.
Secondly ARSE will now be sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745) with the introduction of APLOMB - (Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain) to my ARSE. Here leading outlets will purvey party (political) pies to the electorate and sales recorded.
We at ARSE hope these further enhancements will add to the general enjoyment and financial wellbeing of Mike Smithson's mighty organ.
But as I said to @Sean_F: I don't agree with Lammy
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31704025
For all my dislike and criticism of Cameron it is one of the few shining lights of his premiership and I persist in believing he did it for the best of reasons rather than for purely political advantage - which as you say was not assured anyway.
But fundamentally, I don't care what people get up to in their bedroom. I think it's great if they vote for the Tories. And I wouldn't support a party that tells a significant percentage of the population that they have less rights than other citizens simply because of their sexual preferences.
Tomorrow we get the noble Lord's next set of teasers. Do we expect further SNP success in Scotland? Are the Tories clawing back in those Tory-Lab battleground seats. Are the magical jumper wearers staging a defiance of the polls to hold the Yellow line?
We are now so close to polling day that pollsters should only include 100% certain to vote and registered to vote. Doesn't really matter what non-voters think.