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There is an almost total obsession that the vote on May 7th is about parties reinforced by the fact that almost all the polling asks WHICH you will be supporting rather than WHO.
Comments
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Indeed. Then show the voting record of the named LibDem MP where the vast majority of them have voted more loyally for every Tory bill than Tory MPs. And thats all their northern contingent gone, Clegg included.0
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Its also about 'who do you want to be PM'........0
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Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn0
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In fact for many voters the primary consideration is who will be their representative at Westminster not the party brand.
Evidence?
There are a number of factors, including, but not limited to, party ('we always vote Labour'), candidate ('that Anna's done a good/terrible job), prospective PM (He's the least worst of a bad lot), tactical considerations and so forth.
Yes, the individual candidate is an important factor, but it would be interesting to see where it ranked among the others......0 -
FPT:
Just as well Labour is rock-solid in Scotland then.....
Tuition cuts ‘a threat to Scots universities’
One of Britain’s most prestigious universities has warned Ed Miliband that plans to cut tuition fees could “threaten its very survival”.
The Labour leader came under fire from the University of St Andrews after announcing plans to slash annual fees by £3,000, if he becomes prime minister at the general election in May.
A spokesman for the university, which is 600 years old, said the plan could cause “significant damage” to teaching and research.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article4369451.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2015_03_010 -
From Prof Cowley's article:
The idea that we really rate our local MP whilst hating MPs in general is wide of the mark. Most people rate their local MP pretty much the same as they rate MPs in general, and a minority are a bit more positive about their local MP than they are about MPs in general.0 -
I'm sure OGH has bought high on the Lib Dems on SPIN.....0
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Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*0 -
Interesting play from the Lib Dems over tuition fees:
Lib Dems pledge to torpedo Labour's tuition fees policy in any future coalition
http://www.cityam.com/210527/lib-dems-pledge-torpedo-labours-tuition-fees-policy-any-future-coalition0 -
Me thinks you still haven't realised that we have a Coalition government with Coalition Bills passed into Coalition Acts.RochdalePioneers said:Indeed. Then show the voting record of the named LibDem MP where the vast majority of them have voted more loyally for every Tory bill than Tory MPs. And thats all their northern contingent gone, Clegg included.
Give us all a nudge when the penny finally drops.
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"Hi everyone its Nick Clegg here.CarlottaVance said:Interesting play from the Lib Dems over tuition fees:
Lib Dems pledge to torpedo Labour's tuition fees policy in any future coalition
http://www.cityam.com/210527/lib-dems-pledge-torpedo-labours-tuition-fees-policy-any-future-coalition
I know that I have lead my party to the precipice and thrown it off clutching our 2010 pledge card on tuition fees.
I know that my ministers then told you that £9k a year fees would be the exception not the rule because we'd create competition, and that instead virtually everyone now charges £9k including "universities" you have never heard of in places that kids used to flee to go to university someone nice.
I know that the finances of the £9k a year scheme don't add up meaning an ever expanding bill for government which going off the cuts we support will lead to big cuts to cash available to vice chancellors and soon.
But I can't possibly tell you that any of this was wrong, not with an army of students and parents across the country about to boot out most of my MPs and probably me too.
So instead I promise the ultimate worthless pledge. The LibDems under my leadership will veto any Labour attempt to cut fees. As you can pretty much guarantee that I won't be party leader in June even if I retain my seat which looks likely and that Labour would make my removal as party leader a red line in negotiations as I did for Brown in the unlikely event that I am still leader, you know how much my new pledge actually means.
Thats right. It means as much as our last pledge. I'm Nick Clegg. Or at least I was"
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Latest ARSE 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
26 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds0 -
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*0 -
The headline doesn't match the article, which just says they don't support the policy. When this happens, the headline is nearly always wrong.CarlottaVance said:Interesting play from the Lib Dems over tuition fees:
Lib Dems pledge to torpedo Labour's tuition fees policy in any future coalition
http://www.cityam.com/210527/lib-dems-pledge-torpedo-labours-tuition-fees-policy-any-future-coalition
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not wasting money on stupid policies like this latest Miliband policyedmundintokyo said:
The headline doesn't match the article, which just says they don't support the policy. When this happens, the headline is nearly always wrong.CarlottaVance said:Interesting play from the Lib Dems over tuition fees:
Lib Dems pledge to torpedo Labour's tuition fees policy in any future coalition
http://www.cityam.com/210527/lib-dems-pledge-torpedo-labours-tuition-fees-policy-any-future-coalition
They'll have an interesting time defending 'wasting money on a stupid policy' then.....0 -
The LibDems can take ownership of Iain Duncan Psychotic's "driving the disabled to death" policy if they want. Or flogging whole swathes of the NHS off. For some reason they don't - those are Tory policies. Instead the yellow pox go on about the pupil premium and £10k tax allowance - those are LibDem policies. Both enacted by the coalition. But driven by different elements of it.JackW said:
Me thinks you still haven't realised that we have a Coalition government with Coalition Bills passed into Coalition Acts.RochdalePioneers said:Indeed. Then show the voting record of the named LibDem MP where the vast majority of them have voted more loyally for every Tory bill than Tory MPs. And thats all their northern contingent gone, Clegg included.
Give us all a nudge when the penny finally drops.
You see that Beatles? Where most tracks were written by Lennon & McCartney? You know how quite a lot of those were written by only one of them don't you? Saying "Yesterday" is co-credited to John Lennon doesn't mean he had anything to do with writing it. Or "I want you (she's so heavy)" the other way round.
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While I agree Mike is being very over optimistic in.believing theGeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
Lib Dems will do far better than their justifiable appalling poll ratings have
suggested consistently over the last four and a half years..I
dont think comparing any MP to any Euro MEP is relevant as I doubt
many constituents would even know who their MEP is so the
fact the Lib Dems were virtually wiped out in.the Euros doesnt
necessarily mean they will in the GE at all
Personally I hope they are virtually wiped out but I can see some Lib Dems holding off
Tory challenges as voters may think there is so little difference between
those two now that the yellows have firmly aligned themselves on.the battle for the right of
politics vote as opposed to the left as well ...but they could lose every seat where
there is an actual ideological choice..I e Labour or SNP which will see Alexander
and Clegg both wave goodbye and hopefuly Hughes too though he is on
slightly stronger ground with a long 30 year record as an MP
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Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.0 -
This is normal in politics. In election campaigns basically all your policies are wonderful and all your opponents' policies are terrible. Then if you need to compromise to form a government you inevitably drop some of your wonderful policies and adopt some of your opponents' terrible ones. Sometimes you come right out and say, "we don't support this policy but they insisted", sometimes you tweak the policy a bit to provide cover and sometimes you just come right out and stop saying "terrible" and start saying "wonderful".CarlottaVance said:
not wasting money on stupid policies like this latest Miliband policyedmundintokyo said:
The headline doesn't match the article, which just says they don't support the policy. When this happens, the headline is nearly always wrong.CarlottaVance said:Interesting play from the Lib Dems over tuition fees:
Lib Dems pledge to torpedo Labour's tuition fees policy in any future coalition
http://www.cityam.com/210527/lib-dems-pledge-torpedo-labours-tuition-fees-policy-any-future-coalition
They'll have an interesting time defending 'wasting money on a stupid policy' then.....
That said, I doubt this policy would survive as is, as like most things announced in the run-up to an election it's designed to sound good rather than work well, so I'd have thought in practice Labour would be happy to end up with something different. I doubt they'd implement this one as described even if they won a majority.0 -
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.0 -
I'm afraid your rabid response and gross exaggerations are a clear sign of desperation as Ed Miliband struggles to connect to even his own supporters whilst suffering a meltdown in Scotland.RochdalePioneers said:
The LibDems can take ownership of Iain Duncan Psychotic's "driving the disabled to death" policy if they want. Or flogging whole swathes of the NHS off. For some reason they don't - those are Tory policies. Instead the yellow pox go on about the pupil premium and £10k tax allowance - those are LibDem policies. Both enacted by the coalition. But driven by different elements of it.JackW said:
Me thinks you still haven't realised that we have a Coalition government with Coalition Bills passed into Coalition Acts.RochdalePioneers said:Indeed. Then show the voting record of the named LibDem MP where the vast majority of them have voted more loyally for every Tory bill than Tory MPs. And thats all their northern contingent gone, Clegg included.
Give us all a nudge when the penny finally drops.
You see that Beatles? Where most tracks were written by Lennon & McCartney? You know how quite a lot of those were written by only one of them don't you? Saying "Yesterday" is co-credited to John Lennon doesn't mean he had anything to do with writing it. Or "I want you (she's so heavy)" the other way round.
If any of your half baked analysis had even a grain of truth Mrs Miliband would be measuring for the curtains in Downing Street instead of her husband facing curtains as Labour leader on May 8th.
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Rochdale is 100% right..the point that Lib Dem Mps in NORTHERNJackW said:
I'm afraid your rabid response and gross exaggerations are a clear sign of desperation as Ed Miliband struggles to connect to even his own supporters whilst suffering a meltdown in Scotland.RochdalePioneers said:
The LibDems can take ownership of Iain Duncan Psychotic's "driving the disabled to death" policy if they want. Or flogging whole swathes of the NHS off. For some reason they don't - those are Tory policies. Instead the yellow pox go on about the pupil premium and £10k tax allowance - those are LibDem policies. Both enacted by the coalition. But driven by different elements of it.JackW said:
Me thinks you still haven't realised that we have a Coalition government with Coalition Bills passed into Coalition Acts.RochdalePioneers said:Indeed. Then show the voting record of the named LibDem MP where the vast majority of them have voted more loyally for every Tory bill than Tory MPs. And thats all their northern contingent gone, Clegg included.
Give us all a nudge when the penny finally drops.
You see that Beatles? Where most tracks were written by Lennon & McCartney? You know how quite a lot of those were written by only one of them don't you? Saying "Yesterday" is co-credited to John Lennon doesn't mean he had anything to do with writing it. Or "I want you (she's so heavy)" the other way round.
If any of your half baked analysis had even a grain of truth Mrs Miliband would be measuring for the curtains in Downing Street instead of her husband facing curtains as Labour leader on May 8th.
constituencies have voted more loyally for Coalition policies than
even Tories with safe seats...despite the fact they are in.Lib-Lab
battles where some independence of mind by them (and occasional votes)
would have least have given them a hope of hanging on is a
damning one for any Yellow member up here
The Libs have now toxified themselves in all the areas where the
Tories have been toxic since the 80s and will pay the price in
every Northern battle with Lab not just in May but for a long
time and maybe forever
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On universal swing the Lib Dems should be facing oblivion at the moment having lost nearly 2/3 of their 2010 vote. The polling in their individual constituencies suggests they are not (at least in England) and they have legitimate expectations that something like 30 of them are going to survive.
This is why. The last legacy of the Lib Dem inheritance is that they are often thought to be almost beyond politics or above it in some way and they can have personal brands or support. By hard work and being "interesting" they can attract votes beyond the narrow segment that actually supports their position on the basis that they are good people to have in Parliament.
Still going to lose half their seats though.0 -
Being "beyond politics" and "interesting" didnt work.out too wellDavidL said:On universal swing the Lib Dems should be facing oblivion at the moment having lost nearly 2/3 of their 2010 vote. The polling in their individual constituencies suggests they are not (at least in England) and they have legitimate expectations that something like 30 of them are going to survive.
This is why. The last legacy of the Lib Dem inheritance is thatB they are often thought to be almost beyond politics or above it in some way and they can have personal brands or support. By hard work and being "interesting" they can attract votes beyond the narrow segment that actually supports their position on the basis that they are good people to have in Parliament.
Still going to lose half their seats though.
for that well loved "character" Lembit Opik last time did it?
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I'm not sure about rabies or exaggeration. LibDem MPs have rebelled less against the government than Tory MPs. Both parties claim some coalition bills as belonging to one party or the other. That means LibDems voting more loyally for the Tory bills than Tory MPs did. Go check the public whip, its all there.
For Pox MPs defending against either Labour or the SNP, that means they are going to lose. The odd one might scrape through (Clegg perhaps if his bussed in activists do a better GOTV operation than the army of students and graduates working for Oliver Coppard) but most will lose and lost heavily.
In parts of the south west vs Tories they'll do better - its here that their remaining seats will mainly be concentrated.0 -
This all assumes the pollsters are right, which given the hugely different voting patterns cutting across normal loyalties in unpredictable ways caused by rise of UKIP Green and SNP is a big if.DavidL said:On universal swing the Lib Dems should be facing oblivion at the moment having lost nearly 2/3 of their 2010 vote. The polling in their individual constituencies suggests they are not (at least in England) and they have legitimate expectations that something like 30 of them are going to survive.
This is why. The last legacy of the Lib Dem inheritance is that they are often thought to be almost beyond politics or above it in some way and they can have personal brands or support. By hard work and being "interesting" they can attract votes beyond the narrow segment that actually supports their position on the basis that they are good people to have in Parliament.
Still going to lose half their seats though.
Sure hupperts safe with all the sanctimonious intellectual prigs in Cambridge and Hughes is safe thanks to South Bank gentrification, and Islington second homers will see the one in the lakes through but IMHO the ones in southeast and southwest, even Laws, are going to struggle big time with large UKIP and Green votes benefitting the tory candidate.0 -
Which is one of the reasons why UNS should be of little comfort to Labour.coolagorna said:The Libs have now toxified themselves in all the areas where the Tories have been toxic since the 80s and will pay the price in
every Northern battle with Lab not just in May but for a long
time and maybe forever
A grand total of 5 Lib Dems seats in the three Northern regions (NW.NE.Y and H) where Labour is the main challenger.
Labour run the risk of piling up huge majorities in places they already hold as the Lib Dem vote collapses in places where they are second.
The same applies in inner London, where the likes of Diane Abbott and Harriet Harman will pile up pointless extra votes.
The results of this parliament's by-elections and Euros both suggest it.
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I dont think the lib dems have ever got over the pre euro debates where the media generally acclaimed Clegg as winner before discovering that the ordinary public thought otherwise that Farage trounced him.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.
After that in went fingers to the ears and the dulcit tones of la la la I cant hear you started0 -
Evidence for assertions: zero.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
This all assumes the pollsters are right, which given the hugely different voting patterns cutting across normal loyalties in unpredictable ways caused by rise of UKIP Green and SNP is a big if.DavidL said:On universal swing the Lib Dems should be facing oblivion at the moment having lost nearly 2/3 of their 2010 vote. The polling in their individual constituencies suggests they are not (at least in England) and they have legitimate expectations that something like 30 of them are going to survive.
This is why. The last legacy of the Lib Dem inheritance is that they are often thought to be almost beyond politics or above it in some way and they can have personal brands or support. By hard work and being "interesting" they can attract votes beyond the narrow segment that actually supports their position on the basis that they are good people to have in Parliament.
Still going to lose half their seats though.
Sure hupperts safe with all the sanctimonious intellectual prigs in Cambridge and Hughes is safe thanks to South Bank gentrification, and Islington second homers will see the one in the lakes through but IMHO the ones in southeast and southwest, even Laws, are going to struggle big time with large UKIP and Green votes benefitting the tory candidate.0 -
Maybe he failed the "good person to have in Parliament" test.coolagorna said:
Being "beyond politics" and "interesting" didnt work.out too wellDavidL said:On universal swing the Lib Dems should be facing oblivion at the moment having lost nearly 2/3 of their 2010 vote. The polling in their individual constituencies suggests they are not (at least in England) and they have legitimate expectations that something like 30 of them are going to survive.
This is why. The last legacy of the Lib Dem inheritance is thatB they are often thought to be almost beyond politics or above it in some way and they can have personal brands or support. By hard work and being "interesting" they can attract votes beyond the narrow segment that actually supports their position on the basis that they are good people to have in Parliament.
Still going to lose half their seats though.
for that well loved "character" Lembit Opik last time did it?0 -
Not a bad point admittedlychestnut said:
Which is one of the reasons why UNS should be of little comfort to Labour.coolagorna said:The Libs have now toxified themselves in all the areas where the Tories have been toxic since the 80s and will pay the price in
every Northern battle with Lab not just in May but for a long
time and maybe forever
A grand total of 5 Lib Dems seats in the three Northern regions (NW.NE.Y and H) where Labour is the main challenger.
Labour run the risk of piling up huge majorities in places they already hold as the Lib Dem vote collapses in places where they are second.
The same applies in inner London, where the likes of Diane Abbott and Harriet Harman will pile up pointless extra votes.
The results of this parliament's by-elections and Euros both suggest it.
My own seat Sheffield Cental nearly went Lib in 2010 but I
expect Paul not just to win.easily this time but possibly the Libs
to even slip back to third but as you say that wont help Eds quest
to get into number 10
There are also Lab/Con battles though in the North where a collapsed
Lib vote going to Lab could cost the Blues some seats so the fact
the Libs are toxic up North can still benefit Ed in.that way
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That's a good summary. And I suspect people being critical of Mike's piece here would actually agree with it - depending how well disposed you are to the LibDems you can describe what's going to happen as "glass half full" or "glass half empty". (Or "lose half your seats" vs "Keep half your seats" (*).DavidL said:On universal swing the Lib Dems should be facing oblivion at the moment having lost nearly 2/3 of their 2010 vote. The polling in their individual constituencies suggests they are not (at least in England) and they have legitimate expectations that something like 30 of them are going to survive.
This is why. The last legacy of the Lib Dem inheritance is that they are often thought to be almost beyond politics or above it in some way and they can have personal brands or support. By hard work and being "interesting" they can attract votes beyond the narrow segment that actually supports their position on the basis that they are good people to have in Parliament.
Still going to lose half their seats though.
* OK, maybe they won't do that well, but that's the general ballpark.0 -
The bit about "Or flogging whole swathes of the NHS off" was a pretty solid exaggeration since the coalition has privatised substantially less than the last Labour government. 4.4% under Labour, 1.5% under the Coalition, you might remember Andy Burnham's car crash on Newsnight a month ago on that subject.RochdalePioneers said:I'm not sure about rabies or exaggeration.
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more likely didn't do so well on "understands people like me"DavidL said:
Maybe he failed the "good person to have in Parliament" test.coolagorna said:
Being "beyond politics" and "interesting" didnt work.out too wellDavidL said:On universal swing the Lib Dems should be facing oblivion at the moment having lost nearly 2/3 of their 2010 vote. The polling in their individual constituencies suggests they are not (at least in England) and they have legitimate expectations that something like 30 of them are going to survive.
This is why. The last legacy of the Lib Dem inheritance is thatB they are often thought to be almost beyond politics or above it in some way and they can have personal brands or support. By hard work and being "interesting" they can attract votes beyond the narrow segment that actually supports their position on the basis that they are good people to have in Parliament.
Still going to lose half their seats though.
for that well loved "character" Lembit Opik last time did it?
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I just tried Baxtering the current UK Polling Report average and it has the LibDems on 18, which seems surprisingly perky. This drop in seats is only barely worse than the drop in vote share, which is impressive considering the way FPTP would normally hammer you disproportionately as you get further away from the sweet zone.DavidL said:On universal swing the Lib Dems should be facing oblivion at the moment having lost nearly 2/3 of their 2010 vote.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=32&LAB=33&LIB=8&UKIP=15&Green=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=20100 -
Morning all, why don't we just have a thread headed "LibDem MPs are maverick, comfy, loveable folk we all want to save for the nation"
We shall see how wonderful the voters think their LibDem sitting MPs are on 7th May.0 -
The good people of Montgomeryshire probably thought he wasIndigo said:
more likely didn't do so well on "understands people like me"DavidL said:
Maybe he failed the "good person to have in Parliament" test.coolagorna said:
Being "beyond politics" and "interesting" didnt work.out too wellDavidL said:On universal swing the Lib Dems should be facing oblivion at the moment having lost nearly 2/3 of their 2010 vote. The polling in their individual constituencies suggests they are not (at least in England) and they have legitimate expectations that something like 30 of them are going to survive.
This is why. The last legacy of the Lib Dem inheritance is thatB they are often thought to be almost beyond politics or above it in some way and they can have personal brands or support. By hard work and being "interesting" they can attract votes beyond the narrow segment that actually supports their position on the basis that they are good people to have in Parliament.
Still going to lose half their seats though.
for that well loved "character" Lembit Opik last time did it?
CHEEKY asking for their votes and having WRESTLED with the
optons to decide WEATHER (girl) or not to vote for him they
decided on balance that it was written in.the stars or ASTEROIDS
even that he was a loser and that THEY HAD NEWS FOR HIM
in terms of his future political career prospects
Ok sorry Ill get my coat
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Quite a number of the Lib Dem seats have been built up to be seriously "safe" in normal times with very big majorities. So even very large swings have them hanging on.edmundintokyo said:
I just tried Baxtering the current UK Polling Report average and it has the LibDems on 18, which seems surprisingly perky. This drop in seats is only barely worse than the drop in vote share, which is impressive considering the way FPTP would normally hammer you disproportionately as you get further away from the sweet zone.DavidL said:On universal swing the Lib Dems should be facing oblivion at the moment having lost nearly 2/3 of their 2010 vote.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=32&LAB=33&LIB=8&UKIP=15&Green=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2010
But they do seem to be doing better than that (SPIN agrees) and as you say that really should not be the case as their overall support falls.
I have 2 small bets with Isam. The first, that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP I am pretty pessimistic about. The second, that the Lib Dems will have more than 4x the seats of UKIP I am supremely confident of.0 -
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.antifrank said:
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.0 -
Spurs nor England can lose today!
Rejoice.0 -
Easterross - how many Black Cabs do you think the LDs will need to convey their Parliamentary contingent post 7 May?Easterross said:Morning all, why don't we just have a thread headed "LibDem MPs are maverick, comfy, loveable folk we all want to save for the nation"
We shall see how wonderful the voters think their LibDem sitting MPs are on 7th May.0 -
Which seats did he poll?Easterross said:
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.antifrank said:
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.0 -
I'm now beginning to think that JackW might be right about Ed.
He went big on anti-austerity and now he's complaining that the government won't meet their austerity target. Ed shrieked about inflation causing a cost-of-living crisis and now he's complaining that we face deflation. He remains resolute that there will be no referendum. I fully expect a U-turn.
For Roger, there was a VW advert a few years ago about a man who always made the wrong choice. Ed is that man. Should have gone to Brainsavers.
0 -
EIT
"The headline doesn't match the article, which just says they don't support the policy (reducing fees by a third). When this happens, the headline is nearly always wrong."
It seems to do. Ed Davey says they'll block any reduction in the £9,000 university fees in any future coalition with Labour despite the Lib Dems having pledged to abolish them and despite them having tripled since the Lib Dems have been in government.
The Lib Dems are practicing Hari Kiri infront of the nation.0 -
Here is the link: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/liberal-democrat-battleground/ and this is what Lord A said: "Nevertheless, the incumbent MPs still evidently have a local following, though it may not be enough to save them in most cases." It was done as long ago as September when the Tories were typically struggling to get 32% across the polls.edmundintokyo said:
Which seats did he poll?Easterross said:
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.antifrank said:
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.
0 -
Ah, you're right - sorry, my bad. I'd be surprised if the reporting is correct, though - parties sensibly tend to avoid laying down a lot of red lines for negotiations at this point, and that would be a deeply bonkers thing to draw a red line over.Roger said:EIT
"The headline doesn't match the article, which just says they don't support the policy (reducing fees by a third). When this happens, the headline is nearly always wrong."
It seems to do. Ed Davey says they'll block any reduction in the £9,000 university fees in any future coalition with Labour despite the Lib Dems having pledged to abolish them and despite them having tripled since the Lib Dems have been in government.
The Lib Dems are practicing Hari Kiri infront of the nation.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
F1: my pre-season piece is up. Do feel free to leave comments, questions and so forth:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/testing-thoughts.html0 -
The evidence is that pollsters are polling based on sampling patterns and adjustments honed carefully over the years based on historic voting patterns that bear little relation to those that will occur in the next election due to it being a six party plus fringe rather than a three party plus fringe election.antifrank said:
Evidence for assertions: zero.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
This all assumes the pollsters are right, which given the hugely different voting patterns cutting across normal loyalties in unpredictable ways caused by rise of UKIP Green and SNP is a big if.DavidL said:On universal swing the Lib Dems should be facing oblivion at the moment having lost nearly 2/3 of their 2010 vote. The polling in their individual constituencies suggests they are not (at least in England) and they have legitimate expectations that something like 30 of them are going to survive.
This is why. The last legacy of the Lib Dem inheritance is that they are often thought to be almost beyond politics or above it in some way and they can have personal brands or support. By hard work and being "interesting" they can attract votes beyond the narrow segment that actually supports their position on the basis that they are good people to have in Parliament.
Still going to lose half their seats though.
Sure hupperts safe with all the sanctimonious intellectual prigs in Cambridge and Hughes is safe thanks to South Bank gentrification, and Islington second homers will see the one in the lakes through but IMHO the ones in southeast and southwest, even Laws, are going to struggle big time with large UKIP and Green votes benefitting the tory candidate.
You dont bet your life savings on a known in form horse in a six horse race where little or nothing is known about three of the other horses.0 -
CD13
"For Roger, there was a VW advert a few years ago about a man who always made the wrong choice. Ed is that man. Should have gone to Brainsavers."
Indeed and shot by the late Tony Scott. What wouldn't we give to have this loser in charge...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0gTBC4jszs0 -
If a black cab holds 5 passengers then 5 or 6. I cannot fathom out what is happening up here in the Highlands. I expect Alistair Carmichael and Charles Kennedy to hold on easily and have a gut feeling the anti-Drew Hendry element may just save Danny but in my seat only Jack W can save John Thurso. In the rest of Scotland I expect the LibDems to be wiped out.peter_from_putney said:
Easterross - how many Black Cabs do you think the LDs will need to convey their Parliamentary contingent post 7 May?Easterross said:Morning all, why don't we just have a thread headed "LibDem MPs are maverick, comfy, loveable folk we all want to save for the nation"
We shall see how wonderful the voters think their LibDem sitting MPs are on 7th May.0 -
The point about the Ashcroft polls is that they show incumbent LibDems doing much better than UNS would suggest. As with Labour in Scotland for different reasons, this means that a modest recovery will save a surprising number of seats. That makes them potentially good trading bets when national polls are awful.Easterross said:
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.
Is thi the Cowley piece mentioned downthread? http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/20/mythbuster-mps-voters-home-truths-philip-cowley
0 -
Yes .... even if the Yellows were to win only 13 seats I think you're safe with that second bet.DavidL said:
Quite a number of the Lib Dem seats have been built up to be seriously "safe" in normal times with very big majorities. So even very large swings have them hanging on.edmundintokyo said:
I just tried Baxtering the current UK Polling Report average and it has the LibDems on 18, which seems surprisingly perky. This drop in seats is only barely worse than the drop in vote share, which is impressive considering the way FPTP would normally hammer you disproportionately as you get further away from the sweet zone.DavidL said:On universal swing the Lib Dems should be facing oblivion at the moment having lost nearly 2/3 of their 2010 vote.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=32&LAB=33&LIB=8&UKIP=15&Green=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2010
But they do seem to be doing better than that (SPIN agrees) and as you say that really should not be the case as their overall support falls.
I have 2 small bets with Isam. The first, that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP I am pretty pessimistic about. The second, that the Lib Dems will have more than 4x the seats of UKIP I am supremely confident of.0 -
Thanks, so looking at this:Easterross said:
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.antifrank said:
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Wider-Lib-Dem-battleground-September-2014.pdf
...and comparing to seats lost under the UNS prediction I posted earlier:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=32&LAB=33&LIB=8&UKIP=15&Green=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2010
...you find that all the seats polled in the Ashcroft set of polling are seats that the LibDems would have lost under UNS. They're doing well (compared to UNS) if they manage to save 1/3 of those.
This seems consistent with the betting markets and the consensus of the pb non-crazy-person faction, which is that UNS would see the LibDems losing about 2/3 of their seats, but in practice it'll be more like 1/2 thanks to incumbency etc.0 -
Well I wonder where the Ashcroft poll will take us today? Populus seems stuck on Labour leads even though it was the first pollster to give us a Tory lead back in August.0
-
Punters - check your vanillamail0
-
CD13 said:
I'm now beginning to think that JackW might be right about Ed.
He went big on anti-austerity and now he's complaining that the government won't meet their austerity target. Ed shrieked about inflation causing a cost-of-living crisis and now he's complaining that we face deflation. He remains resolute that there will be no referendum. I fully expect a U-turn.
For Roger, there was a VW advert a few years ago about a man who always made the wrong choice. Ed is that man. Should have gone to Brainsavers.
Don't make adverts like this anymore !Roger said:CD13
"For Roger, there was a VW advert a few years ago about a man who always made the wrong choice. Ed is that man. Should have gone to Brainsavers."
Indeed and shot by the late Tony Scott. What wouldn't we give to have this loser in charge...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0gTBC4jszs
I now have adblock addons on both Google Chrome and Firefox - the internet is bliss
0 -
CD13
"I'm now beginning to think that JackW might be right about Ed."
He's allowing his love for the coalition to colour his judgement. I even fear it might have corrupted his ARSE.
Yesterday as I walked down the street there was a table with a group of people collecting signatures asking people to save the NHS. As people queued to sign a lady asked who was behind it .
They replied it was non party political. She then said she was worried the signs were on a yellowish background. "I voted for them last time. It was a mistake I don't want to make again"
The future's bright the future (isn't) orange0 -
Leeds NW is in trouble according to election forecast.RochdalePioneers said:I'm not sure about rabies or exaggeration. LibDem MPs have rebelled less against the government than Tory MPs. Both parties claim some coalition bills as belonging to one party or the other. That means LibDems voting more loyally for the Tory bills than Tory MPs did. Go check the public whip, its all there.
For Pox MPs defending against either Labour or the SNP, that means they are going to lose. The odd one might scrape through (Clegg perhaps if his bussed in activists do a better GOTV operation than the army of students and graduates working for Oliver Coppard) but most will lose and lost heavily.
In parts of the south west vs Tories they'll do better - its here that their remaining seats will mainly be concentrated.0 -
Non-verifiable tweet, but still...Easterross said:in my seat only Jack W can save John Thurso. In the rest of Scotland I expect the LibDems to be wiped out.
stewart mccarroll @quaichmaker 27 mins27 minutes ago
Just found out my local MP Viscount Thurso's former election agent has joined the SNP Tick Tock Johnny Boy :-)0 -
1/2 takes the LDs just below 30 which is close to where most are predicting. However Lib Dem activists etc seem to be forecasting having 35+.....edmundintokyo said:
.......Easterross said:
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.antifrank said:
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.
This seems consistent with the betting markets and the consensus of the pb non-crazy-person faction, which is that UNS would see the LibDems losing about 2/3 of their seats, but in practice it'll be more like 1/2 thanks to incumbency etc.
Of the 57 seats they had, 11 (19%) have no incumbent candidate for this GE.
0 -
Yes, that's correct Edmund, but it does make the LDs tricky to bet on.edmundintokyo said:
Thanks, so looking at this:Easterross said:
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.antifrank said:
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Wider-Lib-Dem-battleground-September-2014.pdf
...and comparing to seats lost under the UNS prediction I posted earlier:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=32&LAB=33&LIB=8&UKIP=15&Green=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2010
...you find that all the seats polled in the Ashcroft set of polling are seats that the LibDems would have lost under UNS. They're doing well (compared to UNS) if they manage to save 1/3 of those.
This seems consistent with the betting markets and the consensus of the pb non-crazy-person faction, which is that UNS would see the LibDems losing about 2/3 of their seats, but in practice it'll be more like 1/2 thanks to incumbency etc.
If you really know your local constituencies you can clean up but on the more broad-brush markets, such as Spin GE Seats, you're taking a real risk.
You could easily be well out either way.0 -
On the face of it 35+ seems optimistic, but like Peter the Punter says you really need to go through this seat-by-seat.TCPoliticalBetting said:
1/2 takes the LDs just below 30 which is close to where most are predicting. However Lib Dem activists etc seem to be forecasting having 35+.....edmundintokyo said:
.......Easterross said:
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.antifrank said:
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.
This seems consistent with the betting markets and the consensus of the pb non-crazy-person faction, which is that UNS would see the LibDems losing about 2/3 of their seats, but in practice it'll be more like 1/2 thanks to incumbency etc.
Of the 57 seats they had, 11 (19%) have no incumbent candidate for this GE.0 -
I would think there will be some real surprise LibDem losses this time (Twickenham, Southwark?), and some surprise holds (Cambridge, Bradford East?).TCPoliticalBetting said:
1/2 takes the LDs just below 30 which is close to where most are predicting. However Lib Dem activists etc seem to be forecasting having 35+.....edmundintokyo said:
.......Easterross said:
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.antifrank said:
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.
This seems consistent with the betting markets and the consensus of the pb non-crazy-person faction, which is that UNS would see the LibDems losing about 2/3 of their seats, but in practice it'll be more like 1/2 thanks to incumbency etc.
Of the 57 seats they had, 11 (19%) have no incumbent candidate for this GE.
I think 35 is a pipedream, mind. I think the 16-22 looks about right - but I'm hedging my "sell LibDem" seats with some quite high odds bets on them holding seats where they are expected to lose.0 -
Are you serious about the possibility of Danny Alexander saving his Inverness seat - if so this would be THE shock result of the entire GE. Paddy Power have him at odds of 11/2, whilst their odds on the SNP winning this seat are a measly 1/12.Easterross said:
If a black cab holds 5 passengers then 5 or 6. I cannot fathom out what is happening up here in the Highlands. I expect Alistair Carmichael and Charles Kennedy to hold on easily and have a gut feeling the anti-Drew Hendry element may just save Danny but in my seat only Jack W can save John Thurso. In the rest of Scotland I expect the LibDems to be wiped out.peter_from_putney said:
Easterross - how many Black Cabs do you think the LDs will need to convey their Parliamentary contingent post 7 May?Easterross said:Morning all, why don't we just have a thread headed "LibDem MPs are maverick, comfy, loveable folk we all want to save for the nation"
We shall see how wonderful the voters think their LibDem sitting MPs are on 7th May.0 -
While I think Thurso will lose, I think it will be very close. Alexander will lose, although he'll come in second, which will be a fairly decent result under the circumstances.Easterross said:
If a black cab holds 5 passengers then 5 or 6. I cannot fathom out what is happening up here in the Highlands. I expect Alistair Carmichael and Charles Kennedy to hold on easily and have a gut feeling the anti-Drew Hendry element may just save Danny but in my seat only Jack W can save John Thurso. In the rest of Scotland I expect the LibDems to be wiped out.peter_from_putney said:
Easterross - how many Black Cabs do you think the LDs will need to convey their Parliamentary contingent post 7 May?Easterross said:Morning all, why don't we just have a thread headed "LibDem MPs are maverick, comfy, loveable folk we all want to save for the nation"
We shall see how wonderful the voters think their LibDem sitting MPs are on 7th May.
Kennedy is a toss-up and I wouldn't be surprised to see him lose.
Carmichael should hold on, but the odds don't look that attractive to me.
0 -
Whilst I agree that going local is the Lib-Dem's best (only?) strategy, I think Mike is clutching at straws a bit. This will only get the Lib's so far but with the party polling around 8% (from 23% in 2010) the Lib-Dem's are clearly in for a hell of a beating, even taking account account a superior "ground game"...0
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Yes indeed, demonstrated by the fact that they won 20 seats fewer than confidently expected in the 2010 GE.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, that's correct Edmund, but it does make the LDs tricky to bet on.edmundintokyo said:
Thanks, so looking at this:Easterross said:
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.antifrank said:
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Wider-Lib-Dem-battleground-September-2014.pdf
...and comparing to seats lost under the UNS prediction I posted earlier:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=32&LAB=33&LIB=8&UKIP=15&Green=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2010
...you find that all the seats polled in the Ashcroft set of polling are seats that the LibDems would have lost under UNS. They're doing well (compared to UNS) if they manage to save 1/3 of those.
This seems consistent with the betting markets and the consensus of the pb non-crazy-person faction, which is that UNS would see the LibDems losing about 2/3 of their seats, but in practice it'll be more like 1/2 thanks to incumbency etc.
If you really know your local constituencies you can clean up but on the more broad-brush markets, such as Spin GE Seats, you're taking a real risk.
You could easily be well out either way.0 -
0
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I have Ad Block as well but I turn it off on some of my favorite websites (like PB) and try and give Mike a click or two when I remember.Pulpstar said:CD13 said:I'm now beginning to think that JackW might be right about Ed.
He went big on anti-austerity and now he's complaining that the government won't meet their austerity target. Ed shrieked about inflation causing a cost-of-living crisis and now he's complaining that we face deflation. He remains resolute that there will be no referendum. I fully expect a U-turn.
For Roger, there was a VW advert a few years ago about a man who always made the wrong choice. Ed is that man. Should have gone to Brainsavers.
Don't make adverts like this anymore !Roger said:CD13
"For Roger, there was a VW advert a few years ago about a man who always made the wrong choice. Ed is that man. Should have gone to Brainsavers."
Indeed and shot by the late Tony Scott. What wouldn't we give to have this loser in charge...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0gTBC4jszs
I now have adblock addons on both Google Chrome and Firefox - the internet is bliss
Keep in mind there will be consequences of everybody blocking Ad's which will ultimately be the end of the "free" internet. The trend of the coming decade will be for ad's to increasingly disappear but people will have to pay to access the website's/content they enjoy...
0 -
Oh dear .... sore point eh?Peter_the_Punter said:@PfP
Tell me about it. :-(0 -
I hear this is a good method of shifting Libdems out of their creaking fortresses
http://tinyurl.com/kl8ghy3
Apologies but I couldn't resist0 -
Just For Fun:
Today's Polling Predicitons:
Populus: Lab Lead 1%
Lord Ashcroft: Con Lead 4% (but could be anything let's face it)
YouGov: Con-Lab Tie0 -
Seat forecasts summarised by the Guardian blog this morning (Con/Lab/LD/SNP/UKIP/Green)
1. 275/271/27/51/3/1(Guardian itself)
2. 279/283/23/40/4/1(Election Etc:.)
3. 284/279/27/37/1/1(Election Forecast)
4. 271/271/25/56/4/1(New Statesman)
Number 1 is based purely on current polling, especially constituency polls. 2-3 are academic studies taking into account historical trends for the last 2 months. 4 mixes current polls with constituency polls but gives more weight to the former.
On these figures, the SPIN ranges are about right for Con/Lab, if a shade high for the Tories, but EdM should be better than evens for Next PM (because the SNP won't vote to keep the Tories, and the LibDem position is at best unclear). The only path for Cameron, failing some sudden huge jump in Tory support, seems to be for LibDems to get more seats than SNP and to favour hanging on in coalition with a majority in single figures. But if the SNP total drops then Labour's rises, so it comes down to hoping the LibDems will keep nearly all their current seats in LD/Lab contests. Good luck with that.0 -
You are more pessimistic than me. I can see 23 as plausible but forecast 26 in the pb competition.rcs1000 said:
I would think there will be some real surprise LibDem losses this time (Twickenham, Southwark?), and some surprise holds (Cambridge, Bradford East?).TCPoliticalBetting said:
1/2 takes the LDs just below 30 which is close to where most are predicting. However Lib Dem activists etc seem to be forecasting having 35+.....edmundintokyo said:
.......Easterross said:
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.antifrank said:
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.
This seems consistent with the betting markets and the consensus of the pb non-crazy-person faction, which is that UNS would see the LibDems losing about 2/3 of their seats, but in practice it'll be more like 1/2 thanks to incumbency etc.
Of the 57 seats they had, 11 (19%) have no incumbent candidate for this GE.
I think 35 is a pipedream, mind. I think the 16-22 looks about right - but I'm hedging my "sell LibDem" seats with some quite high odds bets on them holding seats where they are expected to lose.
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"Lord Ashcroft: Con Lead 4% (but could be anything let's face it)"
A cop out - unlike you GIN!0 -
That depends on what you mean by "pessimistic"! I went for 23 LD wins in the competition, an outcome which according to OGH made me a "denier" ...... we shall see.TCPoliticalBetting said:
You are more pessimistic than me. I can see 23 as plausible but forecast 26 in the pb competition.rcs1000 said:
I would think there will be some real surprise LibDem losses this time (Twickenham, Southwark?), and some surprise holds (Cambridge, Bradford East?).TCPoliticalBetting said:
1/2 takes the LDs just below 30 which is close to where most are predicting. However Lib Dem activists etc seem to be forecasting having 35+.....edmundintokyo said:
.......Easterross said:
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.antifrank said:
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.
This seems consistent with the betting markets and the consensus of the pb non-crazy-person faction, which is that UNS would see the LibDems losing about 2/3 of their seats, but in practice it'll be more like 1/2 thanks to incumbency etc.
Of the 57 seats they had, 11 (19%) have no incumbent candidate for this GE.
I think 35 is a pipedream, mind. I think the 16-22 looks about right - but I'm hedging my "sell LibDem" seats with some quite high odds bets on them holding seats where they are expected to lose.0 -
On topic my MP is Cheryl Gillam and she is loathed because of HS2, won't stop her winning though.
I read this earlier, I am nowhere near as au fait with this stuff as most of you, except to say wind farms are an expensive, inefficient blot on the landscape. But this looks good to me, I take the figures with a pinch of salt but if they can get within 20% of those stated it looks a good idea:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31682529
I am prepared to be shot down in flames!0 -
I was tempted to go for a Green Lead with The Good Lord just because...peter_from_putney said:"Lord Ashcroft: Con Lead 4% (but could be anything let's face it)"
A cop out - unlike you GIN!
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Incidentally, the SPIN "overall majority" market looks tasty. The range is 28-34, where 0 is any coalition, 50 is a single party minority, and 100 is an overall majority. Neither LibDems nor SNP seem likely to me to want to join a coalition, and nobody will offer one to the DUP, UKIP or Greens. The main risk is a LibDem resurgence leading to them confidently re-entering government (on either side), but is that a 28% chance? Do your own research, of course.0
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Viewing LDs through their eyes and not through my own partisan ones.peter_from_putney said:
That depends on what you mean by "pessimistic"!TCPoliticalBetting said:
You are more pessimistic than me. I can see 23 as plausible but forecast 26 in the pb competition.rcs1000 said:
I would think there will be some real surprise LibDem losses this time (Twickenham, Southwark?), and some surprise holds (Cambridge, Bradford East?).TCPoliticalBetting said:
1/2 takes the LDs just below 30 which is close to where most are predicting. However Lib Dem activists etc seem to be forecasting having 35+.....edmundintokyo said:
.......Easterross said:
If you actually read the last set of Ashcroft polls in LibDem seats, of the 20 seats they were defending, they were predicted to hold 6 and lose 14. To my mind a 30% retention level is a meltdown.antifrank said:
There is an abundance of constituency polls by the not particularly Lib Dem-friendly Lord Ashcroft that indicate that the Lib Dems are holding up ok in a lot of their constituencies on personal votes. Those polls may be wrong, but our host has evidence to back his argument, evidence that can't simply be shrugged off.GeoffM said:
Agree completely with your point that the voting system makes a big difference.edmundintokyo said:
TBF it's a much harder play to pull off in a huge multi-member closed-list seat.GeoffM said:
Let's take a moment to remember how well that plan worked in the Euros, eh?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Here we go again. Another post about how Libdem MPs will be re-elected to general acclaim by grateful forelock tugging constituents who have observed them walking on water for the last five years...ctd page 94...yawn
*chortle*
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.
This seems consistent with the betting markets and the consensus of the pb non-crazy-person faction, which is that UNS would see the LibDems losing about 2/3 of their seats, but in practice it'll be more like 1/2 thanks to incumbency etc.
Of the 57 seats they had, 11 (19%) have no incumbent candidate for this GE.
I think 35 is a pipedream, mind. I think the 16-22 looks about right - but I'm hedging my "sell LibDem" seats with some quite high odds bets on them holding seats where they are expected to lose.
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It's not a ridiculous idea. (Although it's still quite a sizeable subsidy.)nigel4england said:On topic my MP is Cheryl Gillam and she is loathed because of HS2, won't stop her winning though.
I read this earlier, I am nowhere near as au fait with this stuff as most of you, except to say wind farms are an expensive, inefficient blot on the landscape. But this looks good to me, I take the figures with a pinch of salt but if they can get within 20% of those stated it looks a good idea:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31682529
I am prepared to be shot down in flames!0 -
That's a good point, it's now disabled for Our Genial Host. Main concern is to avoid the damned Youtube adsGIN1138 said:
I have Ad Block as well but I turn it off on some of my favorite websites (like PB) and try and give Mike a click or two when I remember.Pulpstar said:CD13 said:I'm now beginning to think that JackW might be right about Ed.
He went big on anti-austerity and now he's complaining that the government won't meet their austerity target. Ed shrieked about inflation causing a cost-of-living crisis and now he's complaining that we face deflation. He remains resolute that there will be no referendum. I fully expect a U-turn.
For Roger, there was a VW advert a few years ago about a man who always made the wrong choice. Ed is that man. Should have gone to Brainsavers.
Don't make adverts like this anymore !Roger said:CD13
"For Roger, there was a VW advert a few years ago about a man who always made the wrong choice. Ed is that man. Should have gone to Brainsavers."
Indeed and shot by the late Tony Scott. What wouldn't we give to have this loser in charge...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0gTBC4jszs
I now have adblock addons on both Google Chrome and Firefox - the internet is bliss
Keep in mind there will be consequences of everybody blocking Ad's which will ultimately be the end of the "free" internet. The trend of the coming decade will be for ad's to increasingly disappear but people will have to pay to access the website's/content they enjoy...
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More seriously I think there is a support threshold under which even the Libdems reputation for resilience will be broken. In Scotland I think it has already been broken and they are facing near obliteration.
In England I think they are at or about that threshold. A bad campaign and I think they will lose their reputation for resilience. A good one and they may cling on just in numerous places.
What makes it worse for them is that clearly in this Parliament they are the big losers. There are few if any positives that the Libdems can take out of the last five years in electoral terms. They've lost many hundreds of councillors, were all but wiped out in the Euros and were pretty much quartered in the Scottish Assembly. All the other competing parties can claim positives and will all be looking to squeeze the Libdem vote where it still exists. All the momentum is against them.
Whether the Libdems reputation for resilience can be retained is anyone's guess but there is no question this is the toughest test it will have ever have faced0 -
I'll actually win more money now if Danny saves his seat due to Coral pricing him up at 20-1 or some such (Madness), but I very very very much doubt I'll be collecting on Danny holding.peter_from_putney said:
Are you serious about the possibility of Danny Alexander saving his Inverness seat - if so this would be THE shock result of the entire GE. Paddy Power have him at odds of 11/2, whilst their odds on the SNP winning this seat are a measly 1/12.Easterross said:
If a black cab holds 5 passengers then 5 or 6. I cannot fathom out what is happening up here in the Highlands. I expect Alistair Carmichael and Charles Kennedy to hold on easily and have a gut feeling the anti-Drew Hendry element may just save Danny but in my seat only Jack W can save John Thurso. In the rest of Scotland I expect the LibDems to be wiped out.peter_from_putney said:
Easterross - how many Black Cabs do you think the LDs will need to convey their Parliamentary contingent post 7 May?Easterross said:Morning all, why don't we just have a thread headed "LibDem MPs are maverick, comfy, loveable folk we all want to save for the nation"
We shall see how wonderful the voters think their LibDem sitting MPs are on 7th May.0 -
Are more 'independent' Scottish Lib.Dems. like Viscount Thurso and Charles Kennedy not slightly safer, other things being equal? Charles K didn't vote for the coalition.
I don't live in or near Amersham but I thought that Cheryl Gillan was against HS2 and left the government in protest. Maybe I was wrong.0 -
The Tories wont offer DUP a coalition? Not sure I follow the logic here.NickPalmer said:Incidentally, the SPIN "overall majority" market looks tasty. The range is 28-34, where 0 is any coalition, 50 is a single party minority, and 100 is an overall majority. Neither LibDems nor SNP seem likely to me to want to join a coalition, and nobody will offer one to the DUP, UKIP or Greens. The main risk is a LibDem resurgence leading to them confidently re-entering government (on either side), but is that a 28% chance? Do your own research, of course.
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Morning all
As always, the tricoteuses are out relishing the prospect of a "meltdown" or whatever for the LDs. I think there are some on here who would regard 0 seats for the LDs as too many.
That said, my observation on this is that LD MPs often come through the Councillor ranks or have fought the seat more than once in the past. That inevitably brings a degree of name recognition over someone parachuted in who just happens to have a red or blue rosette.
I'm not going to say an LD MP is a better or worse constituency MP than those from other parties - Stephen Timms, is a very good local MP even though I wouldn't vote for him.
The other side of it is the local network of activists and supporters who would regularly churn out leaflets, surveys and the like keeping the profile of the MP high. In essence, the campaigning to retain the seat begins a month after the previous election and the next four or so years is spent in various levels of campaigning, canvassing and surveying.
This is the area that concerns me more - if, as some on here gleefully assert, the base of activists and supporters has been eroded, it will have been more difficult for this inter-election activity to take place. That will vary enormously from constituency to constituency and within constituencies as well.0 -
May have been posted downthread.
Predictions:
John Rentoul@JohnRentoul · 56 minutes ago
Political Studies Assoc survey of 500 "experts" (warning: incl me) predicts: Lab 282 seats, Con 278, SNP 29, LD 25, UKIP 7, Green 20 -
No chance of the DUP being in coalition with anyone. If the numbers work for either Labour or Conservative they will offer supply & confidence or support on a bill by bill basis.rottenborough said:
The Tories wont offer DUP a coalition? Not sure I follow the logic here.NickPalmer said:Incidentally, the SPIN "overall majority" market looks tasty. The range is 28-34, where 0 is any coalition, 50 is a single party minority, and 100 is an overall majority. Neither LibDems nor SNP seem likely to me to want to join a coalition, and nobody will offer one to the DUP, UKIP or Greens. The main risk is a LibDem resurgence leading to them confidently re-entering government (on either side), but is that a 28% chance? Do your own research, of course.
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Does Clegg have that itching feeling between his shoulder blades ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2973007/Nick-Clegg-swivel-eyed-worship-Europe-won-t-agree-EU-referendum-say-fellow-Lib-Dems.htmlThe Deputy Prime Minister has publicly said he will consider a deal with whoever emerges on top if the May election results in another hung parliament.
But his friends say that in private he has all but ruled out agreeing to a referendum – raising doubts about the viability of a deal with the Conservatives, and potentially forcing the party into a deal with Labour.
The extraordinary description of Mr Clegg as 'swivel-eyed' underlines the frustration of some senior Lib Dems that Mr Clegg may put his passion for the EU ahead of the interests of the party and country.0 -
Green - 2. Hurrah, as long as the second one is Bristol West, I'm in the money (according to experts).BenM said:May have been posted downthread.
Predictions:
John Rentoul@JohnRentoul · 56 minutes ago
Political Studies Assoc survey of 500 "experts" (warning: incl me) predicts: Lab 282 seats, Con 278, SNP 29, LD 25, UKIP 7, Green 2
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That's a chunky and sizeable recovery for Scottish Labour.BenM said:May have been posted downthread.
Predictions:
John Rentoul@JohnRentoul · 56 minutes ago
Political Studies Assoc survey of 500 "experts" (warning: incl me) predicts: Lab 282 seats, Con 278, SNP 29, LD 25, UKIP 7, Green 20 -
http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2015/03/greenist-fantasy-only-in-wales-and.html
It is very important for the Country though to get the LIb Dems away from power, literally in the case of Energy policy - where due to successive Government idiocy (Ed M previously) - we are in a fragile position with the Grid (and an expensive one of cusotmers) where we should be amongst the best in Europe.
Still, I am hopeful that with 25 seats the Lib Dems are nicely on the road back to obscurity.0 -
If Cameron is a handful of seats short and UKIP get 8 seats and he says he can do business with either party they might find their principles fraying at the edges. Join the Coalition and get the pork barrel, or become an irrelevance on the sidelines.Pulpstar said:
No chance of the DUP being in coalition with anyone. If the numbers work for either Labour or Conservative they will offer supply & confidence or support on a bill by bill basis.rottenborough said:
The Tories wont offer DUP a coalition? Not sure I follow the logic here.NickPalmer said:Incidentally, the SPIN "overall majority" market looks tasty. The range is 28-34, where 0 is any coalition, 50 is a single party minority, and 100 is an overall majority. Neither LibDems nor SNP seem likely to me to want to join a coalition, and nobody will offer one to the DUP, UKIP or Greens. The main risk is a LibDem resurgence leading to them confidently re-entering government (on either side), but is that a 28% chance? Do your own research, of course.
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Fortress strategy is right.However unfortunately UNS in 2010 was a good predictor of total lD seat numders.GIN1138 said:Whilst I agree that going local is the Lib-Dem's best (only?) strategy, I think Mike is clutching at straws a bit. This will only get the Lib's so far but with the party polling around 8% (from 23% in 2010) the Lib-Dem's are clearly in for a hell of a beating, even taking account account a superior "ground game"...
There are extra difficulties this time round with around 9 ? MP,s standing down, a huge loss likely in Scotland, and bigger adverse swings likely in University seats.( not helped by the LD,s saying Labour plans are a coalition breaker
the fortress strategy needs better national poll levels.There is some upside potential simply from more visibility-The Lib Dems have been virtually invisible.However where do the voters come from? the best prospects are from Labour or Greens.The party with the most upside is thye Tories from the declining UKIP vote. an dthis will only add more pressure in LD/Con marginals.
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An interesting suggestion Nick. I bow to your better judgement on such matters but I would have thought that the best chance of a coalition depended primarily not so much on the LibDems doing better than expected, but rather on one or other of the two major parties winning around 300 seats (unlikely I know but just possible) and thereby seeing themselves within sight of the winning post with the support of say 20-25 LibDem MPs. Surely in such circumstances they would offer the Yellows the earth to grasp the opportunity to hold onto power for the next 5 years.NickPalmer said:Incidentally, the SPIN "overall majority" market looks tasty. The range is 28-34, where 0 is any coalition, 50 is a single party minority, and 100 is an overall majority. Neither LibDems nor SNP seem likely to me to want to join a coalition, and nobody will offer one to the DUP, UKIP or Greens. The main risk is a LibDem resurgence leading to them confidently re-entering government (on either side), but is that a 28% chance? Do your own research, of course.
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Con + DUP + UKIP + LD = 319Pulpstar said:
That's a chunky and sizeable recovery for Scottish Labour.BenM said:May have been posted downthread.
Predictions:
John Rentoul@JohnRentoul · 56 minutes ago
Political Studies Assoc survey of 500 "experts" (warning: incl me) predicts: Lab 282 seats, Con 278, SNP 29, LD 25, UKIP 7, Green 2
Lab + SNP + DUP + SDLP + Green =325
Pays yer money...0 -
Precisely. The warm feel of those leather cabinet seats will suddenly over power any principled stands made in the campaign. One thing we know about Cam and Osb is they can sort out a coalition agreement.Indigo said:
If Cameron is a handful of seats short and UKIP get 8 seats and he says he can do business with either party they might find their principles fraying at the edges. Join the Coalition and get the pork barrel, or become an irrelevance on the sidelines.Pulpstar said:
No chance of the DUP being in coalition with anyone. If the numbers work for either Labour or Conservative they will offer supply & confidence or support on a bill by bill basis.rottenborough said:
The Tories wont offer DUP a coalition? Not sure I follow the logic here.NickPalmer said:Incidentally, the SPIN "overall majority" market looks tasty. The range is 28-34, where 0 is any coalition, 50 is a single party minority, and 100 is an overall majority. Neither LibDems nor SNP seem likely to me to want to join a coalition, and nobody will offer one to the DUP, UKIP or Greens. The main risk is a LibDem resurgence leading to them confidently re-entering government (on either side), but is that a 28% chance? Do your own research, of course.
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They'd probably settle for a referendum on AV+ and a rich tea biscuit.peter_from_putney said:
Surely in such circumstances they would offer the Yellows the earth to grasp the opportunity to hold onto power for the next 5 years.NickPalmer said:Incidentally, the SPIN "overall majority" market looks tasty. The range is 28-34, where 0 is any coalition, 50 is a single party minority, and 100 is an overall majority. Neither LibDems nor SNP seem likely to me to want to join a coalition, and nobody will offer one to the DUP, UKIP or Greens. The main risk is a LibDem resurgence leading to them confidently re-entering government (on either side), but is that a 28% chance? Do your own research, of course.
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They can still offer supply & Confidence to a coalition, I just very much doubt they will be in one themselves. They just want some cash for NI and to be left alone in Stormont.Indigo said:
If Cameron is a handful of seats short and UKIP get 8 seats and he says he can do business with either party they might find their principles fraying at the edges. Join the Coalition and get the pork barrel, or become an irrelevance on the sidelines.Pulpstar said:
No chance of the DUP being in coalition with anyone. If the numbers work for either Labour or Conservative they will offer supply & confidence or support on a bill by bill basis.rottenborough said:
The Tories wont offer DUP a coalition? Not sure I follow the logic here.NickPalmer said:Incidentally, the SPIN "overall majority" market looks tasty. The range is 28-34, where 0 is any coalition, 50 is a single party minority, and 100 is an overall majority. Neither LibDems nor SNP seem likely to me to want to join a coalition, and nobody will offer one to the DUP, UKIP or Greens. The main risk is a LibDem resurgence leading to them confidently re-entering government (on either side), but is that a 28% chance? Do your own research, of course.
0
