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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why framing constituency battles on choosing individual MPs is the best defensive strategy for the LDs
There is an almost total obsession that the vote on May 7th is about parties reinforced by the fact that almost all the polling asks WHICH you will be supporting rather than WHO.
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Evidence?
There are a number of factors, including, but not limited to, party ('we always vote Labour'), candidate ('that Anna's done a good/terrible job), prospective PM (He's the least worst of a bad lot), tactical considerations and so forth.
Yes, the individual candidate is an important factor, but it would be interesting to see where it ranked among the others......
Just as well Labour is rock-solid in Scotland then.....
Tuition cuts ‘a threat to Scots universities’
One of Britain’s most prestigious universities has warned Ed Miliband that plans to cut tuition fees could “threaten its very survival”.
The Labour leader came under fire from the University of St Andrews after announcing plans to slash annual fees by £3,000, if he becomes prime minister at the general election in May.
A spokesman for the university, which is 600 years old, said the plan could cause “significant damage” to teaching and research.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article4369451.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2015_03_01
The idea that we really rate our local MP whilst hating MPs in general is wide of the mark. Most people rate their local MP pretty much the same as they rate MPs in general, and a minority are a bit more positive about their local MP than they are about MPs in general.
*chortle*
Lib Dems pledge to torpedo Labour's tuition fees policy in any future coalition
http://www.cityam.com/210527/lib-dems-pledge-torpedo-labours-tuition-fees-policy-any-future-coalition
Give us all a nudge when the penny finally drops.
I know that I have lead my party to the precipice and thrown it off clutching our 2010 pledge card on tuition fees.
I know that my ministers then told you that £9k a year fees would be the exception not the rule because we'd create competition, and that instead virtually everyone now charges £9k including "universities" you have never heard of in places that kids used to flee to go to university someone nice.
I know that the finances of the £9k a year scheme don't add up meaning an ever expanding bill for government which going off the cuts we support will lead to big cuts to cash available to vice chancellors and soon.
But I can't possibly tell you that any of this was wrong, not with an army of students and parents across the country about to boot out most of my MPs and probably me too.
So instead I promise the ultimate worthless pledge. The LibDems under my leadership will veto any Labour attempt to cut fees. As you can pretty much guarantee that I won't be party leader in June even if I retain my seat which looks likely and that Labour would make my removal as party leader a red line in negotiations as I did for Brown in the unlikely event that I am still leader, you know how much my new pledge actually means.
Thats right. It means as much as our last pledge. I'm Nick Clegg. Or at least I was"
26 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds
They'll have an interesting time defending 'wasting money on a stupid policy' then.....
You see that Beatles? Where most tracks were written by Lennon & McCartney? You know how quite a lot of those were written by only one of them don't you? Saying "Yesterday" is co-credited to John Lennon doesn't mean he had anything to do with writing it. Or "I want you (she's so heavy)" the other way round.
Lib Dems will do far better than their justifiable appalling poll ratings have
suggested consistently over the last four and a half years..I
dont think comparing any MP to any Euro MEP is relevant as I doubt
many constituents would even know who their MEP is so the
fact the Lib Dems were virtually wiped out in.the Euros doesnt
necessarily mean they will in the GE at all
Personally I hope they are virtually wiped out but I can see some Lib Dems holding off
Tory challenges as voters may think there is so little difference between
those two now that the yellows have firmly aligned themselves on.the battle for the right of
politics vote as opposed to the left as well ...but they could lose every seat where
there is an actual ideological choice..I e Labour or SNP which will see Alexander
and Clegg both wave goodbye and hopefuly Hughes too though he is on
slightly stronger ground with a long 30 year record as an MP
On the general point of repetitious one-eyed "LDs Winning Here" threads, though, I'm still with @Paul_Mid_Beds.
That said, I doubt this policy would survive as is, as like most things announced in the run-up to an election it's designed to sound good rather than work well, so I'd have thought in practice Labour would be happy to end up with something different. I doubt they'd implement this one as described even if they won a majority.
If any of your half baked analysis had even a grain of truth Mrs Miliband would be measuring for the curtains in Downing Street instead of her husband facing curtains as Labour leader on May 8th.
constituencies have voted more loyally for Coalition policies than
even Tories with safe seats...despite the fact they are in.Lib-Lab
battles where some independence of mind by them (and occasional votes)
would have least have given them a hope of hanging on is a
damning one for any Yellow member up here
The Libs have now toxified themselves in all the areas where the
Tories have been toxic since the 80s and will pay the price in
every Northern battle with Lab not just in May but for a long
time and maybe forever
This is why. The last legacy of the Lib Dem inheritance is that they are often thought to be almost beyond politics or above it in some way and they can have personal brands or support. By hard work and being "interesting" they can attract votes beyond the narrow segment that actually supports their position on the basis that they are good people to have in Parliament.
Still going to lose half their seats though.
for that well loved "character" Lembit Opik last time did it?
For Pox MPs defending against either Labour or the SNP, that means they are going to lose. The odd one might scrape through (Clegg perhaps if his bussed in activists do a better GOTV operation than the army of students and graduates working for Oliver Coppard) but most will lose and lost heavily.
In parts of the south west vs Tories they'll do better - its here that their remaining seats will mainly be concentrated.
Sure hupperts safe with all the sanctimonious intellectual prigs in Cambridge and Hughes is safe thanks to South Bank gentrification, and Islington second homers will see the one in the lakes through but IMHO the ones in southeast and southwest, even Laws, are going to struggle big time with large UKIP and Green votes benefitting the tory candidate.
A grand total of 5 Lib Dems seats in the three Northern regions (NW.NE.Y and H) where Labour is the main challenger.
Labour run the risk of piling up huge majorities in places they already hold as the Lib Dem vote collapses in places where they are second.
The same applies in inner London, where the likes of Diane Abbott and Harriet Harman will pile up pointless extra votes.
The results of this parliament's by-elections and Euros both suggest it.
After that in went fingers to the ears and the dulcit tones of la la la I cant hear you started
My own seat Sheffield Cental nearly went Lib in 2010 but I
expect Paul not just to win.easily this time but possibly the Libs
to even slip back to third but as you say that wont help Eds quest
to get into number 10
There are also Lab/Con battles though in the North where a collapsed
Lib vote going to Lab could cost the Blues some seats so the fact
the Libs are toxic up North can still benefit Ed in.that way
* OK, maybe they won't do that well, but that's the general ballpark.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=32&LAB=33&LIB=8&UKIP=15&Green=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2010
We shall see how wonderful the voters think their LibDem sitting MPs are on 7th May.
CHEEKY asking for their votes and having WRESTLED with the
optons to decide WEATHER (girl) or not to vote for him they
decided on balance that it was written in.the stars or ASTEROIDS
even that he was a loser and that THEY HAD NEWS FOR HIM
in terms of his future political career prospects
Ok sorry Ill get my coat
But they do seem to be doing better than that (SPIN agrees) and as you say that really should not be the case as their overall support falls.
I have 2 small bets with Isam. The first, that the Lib Dems will outpoll UKIP I am pretty pessimistic about. The second, that the Lib Dems will have more than 4x the seats of UKIP I am supremely confident of.
Rejoice.
He went big on anti-austerity and now he's complaining that the government won't meet their austerity target. Ed shrieked about inflation causing a cost-of-living crisis and now he's complaining that we face deflation. He remains resolute that there will be no referendum. I fully expect a U-turn.
For Roger, there was a VW advert a few years ago about a man who always made the wrong choice. Ed is that man. Should have gone to Brainsavers.
"The headline doesn't match the article, which just says they don't support the policy (reducing fees by a third). When this happens, the headline is nearly always wrong."
It seems to do. Ed Davey says they'll block any reduction in the £9,000 university fees in any future coalition with Labour despite the Lib Dems having pledged to abolish them and despite them having tripled since the Lib Dems have been in government.
The Lib Dems are practicing Hari Kiri infront of the nation.
F1: my pre-season piece is up. Do feel free to leave comments, questions and so forth:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/testing-thoughts.html
You dont bet your life savings on a known in form horse in a six horse race where little or nothing is known about three of the other horses.
"For Roger, there was a VW advert a few years ago about a man who always made the wrong choice. Ed is that man. Should have gone to Brainsavers."
Indeed and shot by the late Tony Scott. What wouldn't we give to have this loser in charge...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0gTBC4jszs
Is thi the Cowley piece mentioned downthread? http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/20/mythbuster-mps-voters-home-truths-philip-cowley
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Wider-Lib-Dem-battleground-September-2014.pdf
...and comparing to seats lost under the UNS prediction I posted earlier:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=32&LAB=33&LIB=8&UKIP=15&Green=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2010
...you find that all the seats polled in the Ashcroft set of polling are seats that the LibDems would have lost under UNS. They're doing well (compared to UNS) if they manage to save 1/3 of those.
This seems consistent with the betting markets and the consensus of the pb non-crazy-person faction, which is that UNS would see the LibDems losing about 2/3 of their seats, but in practice it'll be more like 1/2 thanks to incumbency etc.
I now have adblock addons on both Google Chrome and Firefox - the internet is bliss
"I'm now beginning to think that JackW might be right about Ed."
He's allowing his love for the coalition to colour his judgement. I even fear it might have corrupted his ARSE.
Yesterday as I walked down the street there was a table with a group of people collecting signatures asking people to save the NHS. As people queued to sign a lady asked who was behind it .
They replied it was non party political. She then said she was worried the signs were on a yellowish background. "I voted for them last time. It was a mistake I don't want to make again"
The future's bright the future (isn't) orange
stewart mccarroll @quaichmaker 27 mins27 minutes ago
Just found out my local MP Viscount Thurso's former election agent has joined the SNP Tick Tock Johnny Boy :-)
Of the 57 seats they had, 11 (19%) have no incumbent candidate for this GE.
If you really know your local constituencies you can clean up but on the more broad-brush markets, such as Spin GE Seats, you're taking a real risk.
You could easily be well out either way.
I think 35 is a pipedream, mind. I think the 16-22 looks about right - but I'm hedging my "sell LibDem" seats with some quite high odds bets on them holding seats where they are expected to lose.
Kennedy is a toss-up and I wouldn't be surprised to see him lose.
Carmichael should hold on, but the odds don't look that attractive to me.
Tell me about it. :-(
Keep in mind there will be consequences of everybody blocking Ad's which will ultimately be the end of the "free" internet. The trend of the coming decade will be for ad's to increasingly disappear but people will have to pay to access the website's/content they enjoy...
http://tinyurl.com/kl8ghy3
Apologies but I couldn't resist
Today's Polling Predicitons:
Populus: Lab Lead 1%
Lord Ashcroft: Con Lead 4% (but could be anything let's face it)
YouGov: Con-Lab Tie
1. 275/271/27/51/3/1(Guardian itself)
2. 279/283/23/40/4/1(Election Etc:.)
3. 284/279/27/37/1/1(Election Forecast)
4. 271/271/25/56/4/1(New Statesman)
Number 1 is based purely on current polling, especially constituency polls. 2-3 are academic studies taking into account historical trends for the last 2 months. 4 mixes current polls with constituency polls but gives more weight to the former.
On these figures, the SPIN ranges are about right for Con/Lab, if a shade high for the Tories, but EdM should be better than evens for Next PM (because the SNP won't vote to keep the Tories, and the LibDem position is at best unclear). The only path for Cameron, failing some sudden huge jump in Tory support, seems to be for LibDems to get more seats than SNP and to favour hanging on in coalition with a majority in single figures. But if the SNP total drops then Labour's rises, so it comes down to hoping the LibDems will keep nearly all their current seats in LD/Lab contests. Good luck with that.
A cop out - unlike you GIN!
I read this earlier, I am nowhere near as au fait with this stuff as most of you, except to say wind farms are an expensive, inefficient blot on the landscape. But this looks good to me, I take the figures with a pinch of salt but if they can get within 20% of those stated it looks a good idea:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31682529
I am prepared to be shot down in flames!
In England I think they are at or about that threshold. A bad campaign and I think they will lose their reputation for resilience. A good one and they may cling on just in numerous places.
What makes it worse for them is that clearly in this Parliament they are the big losers. There are few if any positives that the Libdems can take out of the last five years in electoral terms. They've lost many hundreds of councillors, were all but wiped out in the Euros and were pretty much quartered in the Scottish Assembly. All the other competing parties can claim positives and will all be looking to squeeze the Libdem vote where it still exists. All the momentum is against them.
Whether the Libdems reputation for resilience can be retained is anyone's guess but there is no question this is the toughest test it will have ever have faced
I don't live in or near Amersham but I thought that Cheryl Gillan was against HS2 and left the government in protest. Maybe I was wrong.
As always, the tricoteuses are out relishing the prospect of a "meltdown" or whatever for the LDs. I think there are some on here who would regard 0 seats for the LDs as too many.
That said, my observation on this is that LD MPs often come through the Councillor ranks or have fought the seat more than once in the past. That inevitably brings a degree of name recognition over someone parachuted in who just happens to have a red or blue rosette.
I'm not going to say an LD MP is a better or worse constituency MP than those from other parties - Stephen Timms, is a very good local MP even though I wouldn't vote for him.
The other side of it is the local network of activists and supporters who would regularly churn out leaflets, surveys and the like keeping the profile of the MP high. In essence, the campaigning to retain the seat begins a month after the previous election and the next four or so years is spent in various levels of campaigning, canvassing and surveying.
This is the area that concerns me more - if, as some on here gleefully assert, the base of activists and supporters has been eroded, it will have been more difficult for this inter-election activity to take place. That will vary enormously from constituency to constituency and within constituencies as well.
Predictions:
John Rentoul@JohnRentoul · 56 minutes ago
Political Studies Assoc survey of 500 "experts" (warning: incl me) predicts: Lab 282 seats, Con 278, SNP 29, LD 25, UKIP 7, Green 2
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2973007/Nick-Clegg-swivel-eyed-worship-Europe-won-t-agree-EU-referendum-say-fellow-Lib-Dems.html
It is very important for the Country though to get the LIb Dems away from power, literally in the case of Energy policy - where due to successive Government idiocy (Ed M previously) - we are in a fragile position with the Grid (and an expensive one of cusotmers) where we should be amongst the best in Europe.
Still, I am hopeful that with 25 seats the Lib Dems are nicely on the road back to obscurity.
There are extra difficulties this time round with around 9 ? MP,s standing down, a huge loss likely in Scotland, and bigger adverse swings likely in University seats.( not helped by the LD,s saying Labour plans are a coalition breaker
the fortress strategy needs better national poll levels.There is some upside potential simply from more visibility-The Lib Dems have been virtually invisible.However where do the voters come from? the best prospects are from Labour or Greens.The party with the most upside is thye Tories from the declining UKIP vote. an dthis will only add more pressure in LD/Con marginals.
Lab + SNP + DUP + SDLP + Green =325
Pays yer money...