Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
We need to educate the electorate - as we can't change them.
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
The 'centre right' hasn't existed since 2016. The majority of the wets couldn't stomach the power that Brexit gave us and either joined the LDs or threw their toys out of the pram in the media.
Being in favour of the EU was Tory policy for decades and all of a sudden anyone who wasn't a Brexit zealot was not wanted in the party any longer.
It is one of the key reasons why the Tories are crawling along in 3rd place on about 20% of the vote, especially now a clear majority of the electorate believe Brexit was a mistake
Mistake or not it has happened and is not going to be reversed anytime soon
The left and right are fairly evenly split at present and you see that in this discussion
What happens in 2029 is anyone's guess but higher taxes and borrowing are not where the public [voters] are
I wasn't suggesting Brexit will be reversed I was arguing that the Tories are increasingly going to be seen as having backed the wrong horse and losing all their Remain voters is why they are struggling now.
I voted remain but support Kemi
You voted remain but supported Sunak, Truss and Johnson until they were defenestrated and you didn't.
You are a Conservative loyalist.
Then explain why I voted for Blair twice
I supported Sunak throughout and did not vote for Johnson in the member ballot
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
Politicians are just a bit slow in recognising the reality: we need massive deregulation to encourage economic growth. That is the only way to afford our over generous welfare state....
Now there is a way the government can save an awful lot of money.
Undergrad student finance to be negotiated between student, institution, and lender, with no government involvement, underwriting, or backstopping loans.
Large number of second grade towns get decimated as their biggest employer of middle class workers closes up shop instantly leaving large numbers of large buildings unused..
Or they can offer competitive courses that increase earning potential, else look for more international students who will write a bigger cheque.
You may not have noticed this but over the past 5 years we’ve cut an awful lot of overseas students from coming here
I thought that most of the decrease was of dubious colleges that were basically fronts for immigration, as opposed to genuine universities offering full-time degree courses?
Nope, there are a lot of universities where specialist courses have been destroyed by an inability for foreigners to get visas.
Twin b’s masters had only half the expected people as none of the US students got given visas to attend (given how specialist it was all those people had millionaire parents paying for the fun of it).
What was the problem with Americans signed up for Masters’ degrees at good universities? That’s crazy.
Not a clue but the course was supposed to have 12 people on it and had 6 with no Americans there and there had always been Americans on it before (it's what made running the course viable).
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
Politicians are just a bit slow in recognising the reality: we need massive deregulation to encourage economic growth. That is the only way to afford our over generous welfare state....
Now there is a way the government can save an awful lot of money.
Undergrad student finance to be negotiated between student, institution, and lender, with no government involvement, underwriting, or backstopping loans.
Large number of second grade towns get decimated as their biggest employer of middle class workers closes up shop instantly leaving large numbers of large buildings unused..
Or they can offer competitive courses that increase earning potential, else look for more international students who will write a bigger cheque.
You may not have noticed this but over the past 5 years we’ve cut an awful lot of overseas students from coming here
I thought that most of the decrease was of dubious colleges that were basically fronts for immigration, as opposed to genuine universities offering full-time degree courses?
It’s a matter of degree (ha!)
You have the mills that take the fees, provide a piece of paper and provide the visa. They are much reduced, but not quite extinct.
But lots of “proper” universities are finding that they had built upon straw.
Lots of Unis have run into money troubles but there are lots of different reasons. Take Nottingham. A huge uni, successful etc. But they gambled on some property and have now run into problems as its not working, so academics will pay the price. Its not just about the failure by governments to increase the students fees (although thats part of it) and declining overseas students (part of it).
Nottingham Uni is also very heavily into Chinese students, with their branch campus in China. I know lettings agents in Nottingham, and it is something of an important question in the student rental sector in Beeston.
Beeston, which - interestingly - is due basically to come into Nottingham City with that part of Broxtowe. Basically one bit being added to Nottingham is that part between Nottingham and Derby, which seems logical. It will mean one hell of a lot more paperwork for landlords who have deliberately chosen to have their student rentals on that side of Nottingham Uni to avoid being in the City.
'Argentinian leader calls Brazilian president a 'thief' and a 'convict'. President Milei was at a rally for Flavio Bolsonaro, President Lula's opponent in the autumn
'The Argentine leader also lashed out against Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, whom he called "bald trash", although he did not name him directly.'
I’d imagine the DUP will be ok with that number considering their ex leader was revealed to be a decades long pervert.
Yes a 3% swing against them and the DUP still ahead of the SDLP, TUV and Alliance so could have been worse for the DUP but they will be annoyed they are behind the UUP. The last Stormont election the UUP beat the DUP in was the 1998 NI Assembly election just after the Good Friday Agreement (after which ironically Donaldson defected from the UUP to DUP)
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
We need to educate the electorate - as we can't change them.
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
The 'centre right' hasn't existed since 2016. The majority of the wets couldn't stomach the power that Brexit gave us and either joined the LDs or threw their toys out of the pram in the media.
Being in favour of the EU was Tory policy for decades and all of a sudden anyone who wasn't a Brexit zealot was not wanted in the party any longer.
It is one of the key reasons why the Tories are crawling along in 3rd place on about 20% of the vote, especially now a clear majority of the electorate believe Brexit was a mistake
Mistake or not it has happened and is not going to be reversed anytime soon
The left and right are fairly evenly split at present and you see that in this discussion
What happens in 2029 is anyone's guess but higher taxes and borrowing are not where the public [voters] are
I wasn't suggesting Brexit will be reversed I was arguing that the Tories are increasingly going to be seen as having backed the wrong horse and losing all their Remain voters is why they are struggling now.
I voted remain but support Kemi
You voted remain but supported Sunak, Truss and Johnson until they were defenestrated and you didn't.
You are a Conservative loyalist.
Then explain why I voted for Blair twice
I supported Sunak throughout and did not vote for Johnson in the member ballot
The last time you voted Blair was a quarter of a century ago. A lot of water under the bridge since then. You then, over time became a loyalist, and good for you
You may have not voted for Johnson in the leadership contest but you were a hundred and ten percent behind him until he soiled himself. You were more than anyone on here convinced Currygate was more important than Partygate.
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
We need to educate the electorate - as we can't change them.
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
The 'centre right' hasn't existed since 2016. The majority of the wets couldn't stomach the power that Brexit gave us and either joined the LDs or threw their toys out of the pram in the media.
Being in favour of the EU was Tory policy for decades and all of a sudden anyone who wasn't a Brexit zealot was not wanted in the party any longer.
It is one of the key reasons why the Tories are crawling along in 3rd place on about 20% of the vote, especially now a clear majority of the electorate believe Brexit was a mistake
Mistake or not it has happened and is not going to be reversed anytime soon
The left and right are fairly evenly split at present and you see that in this discussion
What happens in 2029 is anyone's guess but higher taxes and borrowing are not where the public [voters] are
I wasn't suggesting Brexit will be reversed I was arguing that the Tories are increasingly going to be seen as having backed the wrong horse and losing all their Remain voters is why they are struggling now.
I voted remain but support Kemi
Fair enough but millions don't. Brexit was the key reason that the Tories lost all those seats to the Lib Dems last time. Is Badenoch going to win them all back? I doubt it.
I could be tempted to vote Tory if I was absolutely convinced she wouldn't get into bed with Reform after the election and if she adopted a constructive approach with the EU instead of trying to score silly points with Reform voters.
This is why the PB Tory notion that all non Reformers/ Restorers will rally around Badenoch in order to tactically vote against Reform/ Restore is a nonsense.
Hold on HY, We sorted this yesterday - the sentiment polling you keep posting to support this argument didn’t happen in the actual elections!
Which is stronger to put into Tactical Voting seat generators - “sentiment polling” or actual votes? There is plenty of analysis of the actual votes in recent May 26 that challenges the actual reality of your “sentiment polling” from previous feb 26 doing so much heavy lifting to your argument.
Sam Freedman done a piece that right-wing tactical voting doesn’t materialise because is highly contested battle for same seats - many of Reform’s key target seats the Conservatives are already sitting in first or second place, which complicates the logic of Reform voters stepping aside to "tactically" back a Tory candidate. And that’s what Reform leaders and their voters actually done in the real elections May 26, campaigned hard against the Conservatives, as is their very existence depended on it - and doing that in campaign shaped what their voters eventually voted. https://samf.substack.com/p/how-to-beat-reform
Playing with the tactical vote levels on this page is fun https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/demographic-swingometer/ but, garbage in garbage out, the most sensible thing to feed into it is what voters are actually doing when choosing councils in the May elections, not sentiment stuff in polling. I reckon the closest thing to replicating next GE we can feed in right now is what happens in May locals, but that’s still a subtly different thing than what goes through voters minds when choosing a government and PM, so still not replicating the next GE. But the May analysis in tactical voting levels on seat generator is still closer than using sentiment polling for the reasons I just gave.
It does in Tory held seats, the Tories do get tactical votes to beat Reform or from Reform to beat Labour. Reform don't get many tactical votes though even from Tories
Interesting where Jenrick is taking Reform on social care.
I would say that the average Red Wall Reform voter/switcher wants social care fixed. I thought Reform was running as left on economics (e.g. nationalise water) and right on cultural issues?
Another sobering article on the jobs outlook for young people. One statistic that really jumped out at me was the 88% real terms cut in youth services spending in Dudley since 2011. And yet we can afford the triple lock, apparently. Does a country that is so careless with its young deserve a future?
The interesting thing is politicians still talk a lot about looking after young people, even as we put more and more into those lucrative reliable voters at the upper age brackets. Not just a matter of money either, a lot of things are simply orientated around not upsetting grumpy old people (without wishing to get into another NIMBY discussion).
Interesting where Jenrick is taking Reform on social care.
I would say that the average Red Wall Reform voter/switcher wants social care fixed. I thought Reform was running as left on economics (e.g. nationalise water) and right on cultural issues?
As they continue their transition to become the Tories Mk 2 that may have an impact on their focus.
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
We need to educate the electorate - as we can't change them.
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
The 'centre right' hasn't existed since 2016. The majority of the wets couldn't stomach the power that Brexit gave us and either joined the LDs or threw their toys out of the pram in the media.
Being in favour of the EU was Tory policy for decades and all of a sudden anyone who wasn't a Brexit zealot was not wanted in the party any longer.
It is one of the key reasons why the Tories are crawling along in 3rd place on about 20% of the vote, especially now a clear majority of the electorate believe Brexit was a mistake
Mistake or not it has happened and is not going to be reversed anytime soon
The left and right are fairly evenly split at present and you see that in this discussion
What happens in 2029 is anyone's guess but higher taxes and borrowing are not where the public [voters] are
I wasn't suggesting Brexit will be reversed I was arguing that the Tories are increasingly going to be seen as having backed the wrong horse and losing all their Remain voters is why they are struggling now.
I voted remain but support Kemi
You voted remain but supported Sunak, Truss and Johnson until they were defenestrated and you didn't.
You are a Conservative loyalist.
Then explain why I voted for Blair twice
I supported Sunak throughout and did not vote for Johnson in the member ballot
The last time you voted Blair was a quarter of a century ago. A lot of water under the bridge since then. You then, over time became a loyalist, and good for you
You may have not voted for Johnson in the leadership contest but you were a hundred and ten percent behind him until he soiled himself. You were more than anyone on here convinced Currygate was more important than Partygate.
I have voted and actively supported the conservative party for over 65 years apart from the two elections I voted for Blair
Johnson was excellent on Ukraine and as good as the alternatives on Covid but his cover ups decided his fate
Curry gate is the one Starmer got away with but it didn't help him in the end did it
It looks like UKRI has it in for observational astronomy in general. As well as Jodrell Bank:-
UKRI has put more emphasis on funding research that it believes has more potential to create new industries and jobs.
The announcement is just one of many deep cuts to astronomy projects being implemented, BBC News understand.
The UK will no longer participate in research at the James Clark Maxwell Telescope in Hawaii, which scientists are using to image supermassive black holes at the centre of galaxies.
On most of the latest polls though Reform would win most seats still even if they fall short of a majority. So for Labour to win most seats there would need to be a lot of anti Reform tactical voting
I've a feeling that Reform will continue to poll respectably, at least, until the actual election. The circumstances that people are objecting to will not be going away - at least, not to their satisfaction.
However, what transpires when the election is actually called, and voters are looking down the gun barrel at the people who might actually be governing them, who knows? Will they continue to regard their vote as a protest? Will the vibes win out? I think that will prove to be the defining factor. As we saw with Trump, voters seem remarkably tolerant of poor conduct, irresponsibility, amorality, and general unfitness for office, if the alternative is uninspiring and promises little change.
'Argentinian leader calls Brazilian president a 'thief' and a 'convict'. President Milei was at a rally for Flavio Bolsonaro, President Lula's opponent in the autumn
'The Argentine leader also lashed out against Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, whom he called "bald trash", although he did not name him directly.'
South America is a telenovela.
This is, essentially, the Big Bust Up scene, where two (or more) actors have a Shouty. Some stuff gets broken. Then one or more flounce out of the room. And slam the door so hard the whole set sways.
Maybe it is mentioned in the next episode, but beyond that, forgotten completely.
Interesting where Jenrick is taking Reform on social care.
I would say that the average Red Wall Reform voter/switcher wants social care fixed. I thought Reform was running as left on economics (e.g. nationalise water) and right on cultural issues?
If history is a guide, the far right talks leftish on economics to garner popularity with the voters, but maintains very right wing actual policy to keep support from its funders.
I kind of agree with the principle highlighted, though not personally a huge fan of Private White VC. Their clothes are very good quality but not outstanding. I think they overdo the golden age of empire nostalgia a bit.
Don't know anything about Andy Burnham, but I recognize the room in the middle photo. That's Private White VC.
On most of the latest polls though Reform would win most seats still even if they fall short of a majority. So for Labour to win most seats there would need to be a lot of anti Reform tactical voting
I've a feeling that Reform will continue to poll respectably, at least, until the actual election. The circumstances that people are objecting to will not be going away - at least, not to their satisfaction.
However, what transpires when the election is actually called, and voters are looking down the gun barrel at the people who might actually be governing them, who knows? Will they continue to regard their vote as a protest? Will the vibes win out? I think that will prove to be the defining factor. As we saw with Trump, voters seem remarkably tolerant of poor conduct, irresponsibility, amorality, and general unfitness for office, if the alternative is uninspiring and promises little change.
Farage and Reform are defying gravity and those calling their demise are premature
Maybe we are near ungovernable as politicians do not seem to be in the same place when wanting more spending and borrowing which clearly the public do not
I do wonder what will happen if Farage and or Tice are charged with offences but there is no certainty that it will happen
Interesting where Jenrick is taking Reform on social care.
I would say that the average Red Wall Reform voter/switcher wants social care fixed. I thought Reform was running as left on economics (e.g. nationalise water) and right on cultural issues?
As they continue their transition to become the Tories Mk 2 that may have an impact on their focus.
The great thing from today is that Dan Neidle has documented Reform's Social Care tax - I suspect no-one will like it now it's written down in plain words for people to actually see.
Just checked the latest figures for Hormuz - about 1mn barrels of oil in the last week. Before Epic Fury it was 20mn per day.
Looks like Pete may be in for a redeployment.
Saudi pipeline is 8m bpd, and UAE pipeline is 1.5m - with 1.5m more coming online soon.
It’s not actually as bad as it looks, which is why we’re not facing $200 oil. There’s also a lot of sea traffic passing by under cover of darkness with transponders off and with US Navy cover.
"The Jodrell Bank Observatory, which has housed the UK's largest telescope for nearly 70 years, has lost its funding and could now close, the BBC understands.
The observatory and its network of telescopes have been pivotal to the country's study of distant galaxies and training future astronomers. Scientists have described the decision as "heartbreaking" and "scientifically misguided".
All scientific observations at Jodrell are expected to cease on the 1 April 2028 unless alternative funding can be found."
Looks like the long overdue Green bubble deflation may be starting. They remain little more than a protest vote, and I’ve long felt their polling was gravity-defying.
Out of interest: RefCon 46%, LLG 48%. Restore might make up the difference though.
It was also likely Burnham would get a lead in the polls for about 3 months shortly after becoming leader. It'll be interesting to see if he can extend it beyond that.
Have you seen how coal-fired power stations Hungary is building?
And how many the UK is building? It's a world problem. The UK is doing more than its share of the heavy lifting - but the world is still getting hotter.
And Kemi's policy on North Sea Oil will result in FEWER carbon emissions. Why are her opponents so stupid that they're srguing in favour of more Saudi LNG?
It was also likely Burnham would get a lead in the polls for about 3 months shortly after becoming leader. It'll be interesting to see if he can extend it beyond that.
Burnham is having a honeymoon which clearly Starmer did not
He is making his announcements when Parliament is not sitting and there is no scutiny
He is a crowd pleaser but the hard yards are ahead
I think it was @TSE who said to ignore polls until October which of course will be when Parliament is back and the conference season under way
It was also likely Burnham would get a lead in the polls for about 3 months shortly after becoming leader. It'll be interesting to see if he can extend it beyond that.
Looks like lefty victims of Starmer Derangement Syndrome are happy to back Burnham.
Question is whether having ousted SKS will be enough to keep them on board when to going gets tougher.
On most of the latest polls though Reform would win most seats still even if they fall short of a majority. So for Labour to win most seats there would need to be a lot of anti Reform tactical voting
I've a feeling that Reform will continue to poll respectably, at least, until the actual election. The circumstances that people are objecting to will not be going away - at least, not to their satisfaction.
However, what transpires when the election is actually called, and voters are looking down the gun barrel at the people who might actually be governing them, who knows? Will they continue to regard their vote as a protest? Will the vibes win out? I think that will prove to be the defining factor. As we saw with Trump, voters seem remarkably tolerant of poor conduct, irresponsibility, amorality, and general unfitness for office, if the alternative is uninspiring and promises little change.
Farage and Reform are defying gravity and those calling their demise are premature
Maybe we are near ungovernable as politicians do not seem to be in the same place when wanting more spending and borrowing which clearly the public do not
I do wonder what will happen if Farage and or Tice are charged with offences but there is no certainty that it will happen
Let's see what happen when Clacton votes. I don't think Farage will lose but the plethora of candidates has wrecked the election's publicity value.
It was also likely Burnham would get a lead in the polls for about 3 months shortly after becoming leader. It'll be interesting to see if he can extend it beyond that.
Looks like lefty victims of Starmer Derangement Syndrome are happy to back Burnham.
Question is whether having ousted SKS will be enough to keep them on board when to going gets tougher.
Though the strongest fans of that cult are already selling The Burnsiah Is Literally Worse Than Hitler.
Looks like the long overdue Green bubble deflation may be starting. They remain little more than a protest vote, and I’ve long felt their polling was gravity-defying.
Out of interest: RefCon 46%, LLG 48%. Restore might make up the difference though.
The split on the right is really helping Burnham now with FPTP.
Tories and Reform combined 6% ahead of Labour and LDs combined on votes but Labour most seats on this poll on 300 and with the 69 LD MPs would be a comfortable Labour and LD combined majority.
Reform and Tories now neck and neck on MPs, Reform 119 and Tories 116 but each projected less than half the Labour seats despite being only 4% and 6% behind Labour on voteshare
Another sobering article on the jobs outlook for young people. One statistic that really jumped out at me was the 88% real terms cut in youth services spending in Dudley since 2011. And yet we can afford the triple lock, apparently. Does a country that is so careless with its young deserve a future?
The interesting thing is politicians still talk a lot about looking after young people, even as we put more and more into those lucrative reliable voters at the upper age brackets. Not just a matter of money either, a lot of things are simply orientated around not upsetting grumpy old people (without wishing to get into another NIMBY discussion).
Have you seen how coal-fired power stations Hungary is building?
And how many the UK is building? It's a world problem. The UK is doing more than its share of the heavy lifting - but the world is still getting hotter.
And Kemi's policy on North Sea Oil will result in FEWER carbon emissions. Why are her opponents so stupid that they're srguing in favour of more Saudi LNG?
"The Jodrell Bank Observatory, which has housed the UK's largest telescope for nearly 70 years, has lost its funding and could now close, the BBC understands.
The observatory and its network of telescopes have been pivotal to the country's study of distant galaxies and training future astronomers. Scientists have described the decision as "heartbreaking" and "scientifically misguided".
All scientific observations at Jodrell are expected to cease on the 1 April 2028 unless alternative funding can be found."
Joddrell Bank is brilliant. It's a really interesting museum on the subject of space; and how we know about itl and on the subject of Jodrell Bank itself; but the best thing there is the dish. I could look at it for hours. It is the most compelling man-made thing in the North West of England. It always brings a little frisson of joy to see it from the train or from up a hill in the western Peak District or a high building in Manchester. I also love that it maintains an air of makeshift post-war optimism: some of the greatest discoveries of the 20th century have taken place in those unassuming little blocks which looks like makeshift extra classrooms.
I'd urge absolutely everyone on here to visit it while they still have the chance.
Another sobering article on the jobs outlook for young people. One statistic that really jumped out at me was the 88% real terms cut in youth services spending in Dudley since 2011. And yet we can afford the triple lock, apparently. Does a country that is so careless with its young deserve a future?
The interesting thing is politicians still talk a lot about looking after young people, even as we put more and more into those lucrative reliable voters at the upper age brackets. Not just a matter of money either, a lot of things are simply orientated around not upsetting grumpy old people (without wishing to get into another NIMBY discussion).
Looks like the long overdue Green bubble deflation may be starting. They remain little more than a protest vote, and I’ve long felt their polling was gravity-defying.
Out of interest: RefCon 46%, LLG 48%. Restore might make up the difference though.
The split on the right is really helping Burnham now with FPTP.
Tories and Reform combined 6% ahead of Labour and LDs combined on votes but Labour most seats on this poll on 300 and with the 69 LD MPs would be a comfortable Labour and LD combined majority.
Reform and Tories now neck and neck on MPs, Reform 119 and Tories 116
Another sobering article on the jobs outlook for young people. One statistic that really jumped out at me was the 88% real terms cut in youth services spending in Dudley since 2011. And yet we can afford the triple lock, apparently. Does a country that is so careless with its young deserve a future?
The interesting thing is politicians still talk a lot about looking after young people, even as we put more and more into those lucrative reliable voters at the upper age brackets. Not just a matter of money either, a lot of things are simply orientated around not upsetting grumpy old people (without wishing to get into another NIMBY discussion).
WFA cut hit older voters
What WFA cut?
The initial one certainly but even post U Turn well off pensioners have lost their WFA
Looks like the long overdue Green bubble deflation may be starting. They remain little more than a protest vote, and I’ve long felt their polling was gravity-defying.
Out of interest: RefCon 46%, LLG 48%. Restore might make up the difference though.
The split on the right is really helping Burnham now with FPTP.
Tories and Reform combined 6% ahead of Labour and LDs combined on votes but Labour most seats on this poll on 300 and with the 69 LD MPs would be a comfortable Labour and LD combined majority.
Reform and Tories now neck and neck on MPs, Reform 119 and Tories 116
Another sobering article on the jobs outlook for young people. One statistic that really jumped out at me was the 88% real terms cut in youth services spending in Dudley since 2011. And yet we can afford the triple lock, apparently. Does a country that is so careless with its young deserve a future?
The interesting thing is politicians still talk a lot about looking after young people, even as we put more and more into those lucrative reliable voters at the upper age brackets. Not just a matter of money either, a lot of things are simply orientated around not upsetting grumpy old people (without wishing to get into another NIMBY discussion).
WFA cut hit older voters
What WFA cut?
The initial one certainly but even post U Turn well off pensioners have lost their WFA
If you get £35,000 a year and can't cope with a £300 cut in income you've got bigger problems to deal with.
The actual reason I asked the question was because I wanted to emphasis that the initial cut got an awful lot of publicity but the reversal got a lot less publicity
Which shows how utterly bad Reeves and Starmer and all of those around them were disastrously bad at politics, new management and common sense...
On most of the latest polls though Reform would win most seats still even if they fall short of a majority. So for Labour to win most seats there would need to be a lot of anti Reform tactical voting
I've a feeling that Reform will continue to poll respectably, at least, until the actual election. The circumstances that people are objecting to will not be going away - at least, not to their satisfaction.
However, what transpires when the election is actually called, and voters are looking down the gun barrel at the people who might actually be governing them, who knows? Will they continue to regard their vote as a protest? Will the vibes win out? I think that will prove to be the defining factor. As we saw with Trump, voters seem remarkably tolerant of poor conduct, irresponsibility, amorality, and general unfitness for office, if the alternative is uninspiring and promises little change.
Farage and Reform are defying gravity and those calling their demise are premature
Maybe we are near ungovernable as politicians do not seem to be in the same place when wanting more spending and borrowing which clearly the public do not
I do wonder what will happen if Farage and or Tice are charged with offences but there is no certainty that it will happen
Let's see what happen when Clacton votes. I don't think Farage will lose but the plethora of candidates has wrecked the election's publicity value.
Or to be more specific, the plethora of implausible candidates.
If there were a 'stop pissing us about' candidate he/she would win. In the event, I expect Farage to prevail with a small majority on a record low turnout.
Have you seen how coal-fired power stations Hungary is building?
And how many the UK is building? It's a world problem. The UK is doing more than its share of the heavy lifting - but the world is still getting hotter.
And Kemi's policy on North Sea Oil will result in FEWER carbon emissions. Why are her opponents so stupid that they're srguing in favour of more Saudi LNG?
Looks like the long overdue Green bubble deflation may be starting. They remain little more than a protest vote, and I’ve long felt their polling was gravity-defying.
Out of interest: RefCon 46%, LLG 48%. Restore might make up the difference though.
Starting?!?
It started in April when Polanski received some challenging and negative media attention and fluffed his response. The wiki graph has them peaking at nearly 16% at the beginning of April, and now down to nearly 11% and dropping fast.
While the Fields Medal celebrates the under-40s, the mathematician Joan Birman has, at the age of 99, solved a major open problem in representations of the Braid groups, a topic she has worked on for more than 60 years. https://x.com/gregeganSF/status/2081617044471214199
Looks like the long overdue Green bubble deflation may be starting. They remain little more than a protest vote, and I’ve long felt their polling was gravity-defying.
Out of interest: RefCon 46%, LLG 48%. Restore might make up the difference though.
Starting?!?
It started in April when Polanski received some challenging and negative media attention and fluffed his response. The wiki graph has them peaking at nearly 16% at the beginning of April, and now down to nearly 11% and dropping fast.
And, of course, there was his response to the Golders Green attack (on April 29th), which was so reminiscent of Corbyn's approach to anti-Semitism.
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
We need to educate the electorate - as we can't change them.
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
The 'centre right' hasn't existed since 2016. The majority of the wets couldn't stomach the power that Brexit gave us and either joined the LDs or threw their toys out of the pram in the media.
Being in favour of the EU was Tory policy for decades and all of a sudden anyone who wasn't a Brexit zealot was not wanted in the party any longer.
It is one of the key reasons why the Tories are crawling along in 3rd place on about 20% of the vote, especially now a clear majority of the electorate believe Brexit was a mistake
Predictable bed wetting from the EUzealots in reply to my pointing out the bleeding obvious.
The Conservatives won 2 election victories post the 2016 vote - including the largest one since the 80s.
The problem isn't Brexit - it is that centristdadism a la Sunak didn't appeal to the electorate, and Farage therefore stole our clothes.
Johnson won his huge majority when people still believed that Brexit was leading to the sunlit uplands. Once that illusion was dead and buried with a stake through its heart the Tories crashed to their worst defeat in decades. Sunak was a Brexiteer by the way. The Tory party own Brexit I'm afraid and by huge margins voters now believe it was a mistake.
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
We need to educate the electorate - as we can't change them.
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
The 'centre right' hasn't existed since 2016. The majority of the wets couldn't stomach the power that Brexit gave us and either joined the LDs or threw their toys out of the pram in the media.
Being in favour of the EU was Tory policy for decades and all of a sudden anyone who wasn't a Brexit zealot was not wanted in the party any longer.
It is one of the key reasons why the Tories are crawling along in 3rd place on about 20% of the vote, especially now a clear majority of the electorate believe Brexit was a mistake
Mistake or not it has happened and is not going to be reversed anytime soon
The left and right are fairly evenly split at present and you see that in this discussion
What happens in 2029 is anyone's guess but higher taxes and borrowing are not where the public [voters] are
I wasn't suggesting Brexit will be reversed I was arguing that the Tories are increasingly going to be seen as having backed the wrong horse and losing all their Remain voters is why they are struggling now.
I voted remain but support Kemi
Fair enough but millions don't. Brexit was the key reason that the Tories lost all those seats to the Lib Dems last time. Is Badenoch going to win them all back? I doubt it.
I could be tempted to vote Tory if I was absolutely convinced she wouldn't get into bed with Reform after the election and if she adopted a constructive approach with the EU instead of trying to score silly points with Reform voters.
This is why the PB Tory notion that all non Reformers/ Restorers will rally around Badenoch in order to tactically vote against Reform/ Restore is a nonsense.
Hold on HY, We sorted this yesterday - the sentiment polling you keep posting to support this argument didn’t happen in the actual elections!
Which is stronger to put into Tactical Voting seat generators - “sentiment polling” or actual votes? There is plenty of analysis of the actual votes in recent May 26 that challenges the actual reality of your “sentiment polling” from previous feb 26 doing so much heavy lifting to your argument.
Sam Freedman done a piece that right-wing tactical voting doesn’t materialise because is highly contested battle for same seats - many of Reform’s key target seats the Conservatives are already sitting in first or second place, which complicates the logic of Reform voters stepping aside to "tactically" back a Tory candidate. And that’s what Reform leaders and their voters actually done in the real elections May 26, campaigned hard against the Conservatives, as is their very existence depended on it - and doing that in campaign shaped what their voters eventually voted. https://samf.substack.com/p/how-to-beat-reform
Playing with the tactical vote levels on this page is fun https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/demographic-swingometer/ but, garbage in garbage out, the most sensible thing to feed into it is what voters are actually doing when choosing councils in the May elections, not sentiment stuff in polling. I reckon the closest thing to replicating next GE we can feed in right now is what happens in May locals, but that’s still a subtly different thing than what goes through voters minds when choosing a government and PM, so still not replicating the next GE. But the May analysis in tactical voting levels on seat generator is still closer than using sentiment polling for the reasons I just gave.
It does in Tory held seats, the Tories do get tactical votes to beat Reform or from Reform to beat Labour. Reform don't get many tactical votes though even from Tories
But I have just posted analysis from the May elections which say otherwise 🤦♀️
You are not agreeing the actual votes following campaigns where Reform went in two footed on the Conservatives, trumps the sentiment polling from before actual campaigns and elections 🤷♀️
There is no possible Tory and Reform electoral cohabitating. 1983 election result is an actual reference point as well as 2024.
One of the two parties has to go to “nothing status” - and on basis there’s but a lowish polling ceiling Reform can ever achieve - and same lowish ceiling for Reform in GE parliament seats because they are so far from centre and without any history of governing well or managing an economy well - all right wing support and votes to reform is now an utter waste of time, it’s actually hampering taking the fight to the left - who are just sat there laughing at us when we talk electoral cohabiting on the right.
Elections are won and government defended from the centre - two parties away to the two right of centre polling about the same at the same time, and going in hard on each other during campaigns… how on earth do you have tactical vote working?
The only thing for Conservative Party, their friends in media and donors need to focus on, the only way forward for the Conservatives, is eradication of Reform back to “nothing” status they were just a few years ago when Truss entered Number ten.
Looks like the long overdue Green bubble deflation may be starting. They remain little more than a protest vote, and I’ve long felt their polling was gravity-defying.
Out of interest: RefCon 46%, LLG 48%. Restore might make up the difference though.
The split on the right is really helping Burnham now with FPTP.
Tories and Reform combined 6% ahead of Labour and LDs combined on votes but Labour most seats on this poll on 300 and with the 69 LD MPs would be a comfortable Labour and LD combined majority.
Reform and Tories now neck and neck on MPs, Reform 119 and Tories 116
I know things are different but I suspect the LD's will be very wary of a coalition. Davey and Farron in particular.
Most likely would be a Labour minority government I agree on those numbers
I'm not so sure. LDs were twice as favourable to a Labour coalition as with the Tories on a January YouGov poll. So, it would depend on the offer. Burnham has already said he's in favour of PR. That's probably the clincher
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
We need to educate the electorate - as we can't change them.
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
The 'centre right' hasn't existed since 2016. The majority of the wets couldn't stomach the power that Brexit gave us and either joined the LDs or threw their toys out of the pram in the media.
Being in favour of the EU was Tory policy for decades and all of a sudden anyone who wasn't a Brexit zealot was not wanted in the party any longer.
It is one of the key reasons why the Tories are crawling along in 3rd place on about 20% of the vote, especially now a clear majority of the electorate believe Brexit was a mistake
Predictable bed wetting from the EUzealots in reply to my pointing out the bleeding obvious.
The Conservatives won 2 election victories post the 2016 vote - including the largest one since the 80s.
Whilst continuing to mislead as to what Brexit would involve, implying there would be a very decent Brexit 'deal' whereas in practice the right of the Tory Party drove us to what was in effect a no deal hard Brexit.
And now people can see the damage that's being done and the complete absence of any significant benefit.
The damage is very much in the eye of the beholder. We had some excellent posts on here taking apart the claims of economic damage and showing that the comparisons with the EU show not much real effect. Same for benefits, but arguably again in the eye of the beholder.
Sadly for you in the eye of a majority of beholders Brexit was a mistake
First known US case: American charged for using a “duress” password
Samuel Tunick, an Atlanta resident, is being prosecuted for allegedly giving border agents a passcode that wiped his phone.
The feature comes from GrapheneOS, a privacy-focused Android OS. Entering the duress code triggers a full factory reset.
This is believed to be the first time federal prosecutors have brought such charges.
The incident happened in January 2025 at Atlanta airport. Agents demanded access to his phone without a warrant, saying he hadn’t yet officially entered the US. When they entered the code, the phone wiped itself.
Tunick has pleaded not guilty. His lawyers argue the seizure was unlawful and that agents were investigating his activism against “Cop City.”
Looks like the long overdue Green bubble deflation may be starting. They remain little more than a protest vote, and I’ve long felt their polling was gravity-defying.
Out of interest: RefCon 46%, LLG 48%. Restore might make up the difference though.
Starting?!?
It started in April when Polanski received some challenging and negative media attention and fluffed his response. The wiki graph has them peaking at nearly 16% at the beginning of April, and now down to nearly 11% and dropping fast.
It was also likely Burnham would get a lead in the polls for about 3 months shortly after becoming leader. It'll be interesting to see if he can extend it beyond that.
Burnham is having a honeymoon which clearly Starmer did not
He is making his announcements when Parliament is not sitting and there is no scutiny
He is a crowd pleaser but the hard yards are ahead
I think it was @TSE who said to ignore polls until October which of course will be when Parliament is back and the conference season under way
He's only been in post for a week. Too early to speculate on a honeymoon although it is already a week longer than Starmer's.
If Kemi starts leading in the polls can we stop ignoring them?
📰 'Andy Burnham needs to stop talking about Thatcher', according to Rishi Sunak in July 2026.
🗞️ 'I will be the heir to Margaret Thatcher': 'I am a Thatcherite, I am running as a Thatcherite and I will govern as a Thatcherite,' according to Rishi Sunak in July 2022. https://x.com/exPremiers/status/2081304230724239792
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
We need to educate the electorate - as we can't change them.
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
The 'centre right' hasn't existed since 2016. The majority of the wets couldn't stomach the power that Brexit gave us and either joined the LDs or threw their toys out of the pram in the media.
Being in favour of the EU was Tory policy for decades and all of a sudden anyone who wasn't a Brexit zealot was not wanted in the party any longer.
It is one of the key reasons why the Tories are crawling along in 3rd place on about 20% of the vote, especially now a clear majority of the electorate believe Brexit was a mistake
Predictable bed wetting from the EUzealots in reply to my pointing out the bleeding obvious.
The Conservatives won 2 election victories post the 2016 vote - including the largest one since the 80s.
The problem isn't Brexit - it is that centristdadism a la Sunak didn't appeal to the electorate, and Farage therefore stole our clothes.
Johnson won his huge majority when people still believed that Brexit was leading to the sunlit uplands. Once that illusion was dead and buried with a stake through its heart the Tories crashed to their worst defeat in decades. Sunak was a Brexiteer by the way. The Tory party own Brexit I'm afraid and by huge margins voters now believe it was a mistake.
I am quite happy for the conservative party to own brexit even though I voted remain
It is not perfect, but I do not want UVL speaking for me rather than our PM whoever that is
It was also likely Burnham would get a lead in the polls for about 3 months shortly after becoming leader. It'll be interesting to see if he can extend it beyond that.
Burnham is having a honeymoon which clearly Starmer did not
He is making his announcements when Parliament is not sitting and there is no scutiny
He is a crowd pleaser but the hard yards are ahead
I think it was @TSE who said to ignore polls until October which of course will be when Parliament is back and the conference season under way
He's only been in post for a week. Too early to speculate on a honeymoon although it is already a week longer than Starmer's.
If Kemi starts leading in the polls can we stop ignoring them?
It is bizarre that while the politics of agriculture has focused on invidious taxes, the actual business is threatened by a phenomenon that some bloggers still think is a hoax.
📰 'Andy Burnham needs to stop talking about Thatcher', according to Rishi Sunak in July 2026.
🗞️ 'I will be the heir to Margaret Thatcher': 'I am a Thatcherite, I am running as a Thatcherite and I will govern as a Thatcherite,' according to Rishi Sunak in July 2022. https://x.com/exPremiers/status/2081304230724239792
It's impossible to avoid speaking about Thatcher. More than any other politician since Atlee she is responsible for the way the country is now (for good or ill). The core of political debate is whether you accept the Thatcher dispensation or you don't.
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Why is Badenoch wrong to not explain what she would cut but Burnham is not criticised for not explaining how he might fund?
The FT still have their page where you can 'run the country' from the Treasury. Have a look.
Perhaps there is a need for an overview. The FT game gives choices. Do you want to cut. where and by how much. It generates a financial outcome to show debt, taxes and the effect on different departments. So there is no 'correct' answer but it does allow anyone to test their theories before they are released into the wild. Then it's all about explaining to the losers why they should still vote for the hypothetical PM/Chancellor.
But if you want me to put something up for you to have a go at, then most costs are hardwired into the budget through legislation. So a minor party (LibDems / Conservatives / Reform etc) can spout a lot of hot air but have no means of effecting them at present. They don't even have any leverage given the size of Labours majority. To effect change requires votes *and* the ability to get the legislation through parliament. Kemi has neither, nor a plan, nor a menu - only soundbites.
Badenoch knows that there is usually a good political payoff from opposing social care proposals - but also knows that if there's a spirit of consensus, there's a risk in being seen as the one who isn't playing along. Hence, cynically, she's setting down ground rules she knows will be impossible to meet, hoping that this will 'justify' the Tories' eventual opposition to whatever proposal the government (and other parties, hopefully), might come up with.
Interesting and you're probably right. This cynicism about how to pay for it is how every previous social welfare proposal was sunk. It would be less disingenuous to say the state shouldn't be in the business of providing social care but Badenoch doesn't want to say that, so she can achieve the same outcome by pretending it's due to government mismanagement of expenditure.
And I think less of Badenoch for her kneejerk opposition. She could have said she welcomed progress on an important issue and would work with the government, but wanted to make sure a new system was fair, etc. Instead, she basically asks for the impossible.
This is her letter to Burnham which seems perfectly sensible
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
We need to educate the electorate - as we can't change them.
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
The 'centre right' hasn't existed since 2016. The majority of the wets couldn't stomach the power that Brexit gave us and either joined the LDs or threw their toys out of the pram in the media.
Being in favour of the EU was Tory policy for decades and all of a sudden anyone who wasn't a Brexit zealot was not wanted in the party any longer.
It is one of the key reasons why the Tories are crawling along in 3rd place on about 20% of the vote, especially now a clear majority of the electorate believe Brexit was a mistake
Predictable bed wetting from the EUzealots in reply to my pointing out the bleeding obvious.
The Conservatives won 2 election victories post the 2016 vote - including the largest one since the 80s.
Whilst continuing to mislead as to what Brexit would involve, implying there would be a very decent Brexit 'deal' whereas in practice the right of the Tory Party drove us to what was in effect a no deal hard Brexit.
And now people can see the damage that's being done and the complete absence of any significant benefit.
The damage is very much in the eye of the beholder. We had some excellent posts on here taking apart the claims of economic damage and showing that the comparisons with the EU show not much real effect. Same for benefits, but arguably again in the eye of the beholder.
Sadly for you in the eye of a majority of beholders Brexit was a mistake
Tell them the costs of rejoining and see what they say...
Brexit will ultimately end up being rather "meh". But the EU is as responsible as the UK electorate for Brexit. They did not have the gumption to negotiate - or to see that the UK Brexit would have significant adverse effects on the whole EU economy as well.
The EU was poorly served by its diplomats/technocrats.
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
We need to educate the electorate - as we can't change them.
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
The 'centre right' hasn't existed since 2016. The majority of the wets couldn't stomach the power that Brexit gave us and either joined the LDs or threw their toys out of the pram in the media.
Being in favour of the EU was Tory policy for decades and all of a sudden anyone who wasn't a Brexit zealot was not wanted in the party any longer.
It is one of the key reasons why the Tories are crawling along in 3rd place on about 20% of the vote, especially now a clear majority of the electorate believe Brexit was a mistake
Predictable bed wetting from the EUzealots in reply to my pointing out the bleeding obvious.
The Conservatives won 2 election victories post the 2016 vote - including the largest one since the 80s.
The problem isn't Brexit - it is that centristdadism a la Sunak didn't appeal to the electorate, and Farage therefore stole our clothes.
Johnson won his huge majority when people still believed that Brexit was leading to the sunlit uplands. Once that illusion was dead and buried with a stake through its heart the Tories crashed to their worst defeat in decades. Sunak was a Brexiteer by the way. The Tory party own Brexit I'm afraid and by huge margins voters now believe it was a mistake.
I am quite happy for the conservative party to own brexit even though I voted remain
It is not perfect, but I do not want UVL speaking for me rather than our PM whoever that is
Looks like the long overdue Green bubble deflation may be starting. They remain little more than a protest vote, and I’ve long felt their polling was gravity-defying.
Out of interest: RefCon 46%, LLG 48%. Restore might make up the difference though.
The split on the right is really helping Burnham now with FPTP.
Tories and Reform combined 6% ahead of Labour and LDs combined on votes but Labour most seats on this poll on 300 and with the 69 LD MPs would be a comfortable Labour and LD combined majority.
Reform and Tories now neck and neck on MPs, Reform 119 and Tories 116 but each projected less than half the Labour seats despite being only 4% and 6% behind Labour on voteshare
📰 'Andy Burnham needs to stop talking about Thatcher', according to Rishi Sunak in July 2026.
🗞️ 'I will be the heir to Margaret Thatcher': 'I am a Thatcherite, I am running as a Thatcherite and I will govern as a Thatcherite,' according to Rishi Sunak in July 2022. https://x.com/exPremiers/status/2081304230724239792
It's impossible to avoid speaking about Thatcher. More than any other politician since Atlee she is responsible for the way the country is now (for good or ill). The core of political debate is whether you accept the Thatcher dispensation or you don't.
The Left still hate Thatcher because she pointed out the impracticalities of all they held dear.
📰 'Andy Burnham needs to stop talking about Thatcher', according to Rishi Sunak in July 2026.
🗞️ 'I will be the heir to Margaret Thatcher': 'I am a Thatcherite, I am running as a Thatcherite and I will govern as a Thatcherite,' according to Rishi Sunak in July 2022. https://x.com/exPremiers/status/2081304230724239792
It's impossible to avoid speaking about Thatcher. More than any other politician since Atlee she is responsible for the way the country is now (for good or ill). The core of political debate is whether you accept the Thatcher dispensation or you don't.
Quite. A big part (not the only part, obviously) of where we went wrong over the last couple of decades was uncritically accepting large chunks of the Thatcherite consensus (looking at you, Blair and Brown).
Burnham is the first PM explicitly to say he wants to look at some of it - centralisation of government being one obvious example.; monopoly utility privatisation another. It's doubly stupid for Sunak to say that, given he directly advocated continuing with the flawed consensus.
First known US case: American charged for using a “duress” password
Samuel Tunick, an Atlanta resident, is being prosecuted for allegedly giving border agents a passcode that wiped his phone.
The feature comes from GrapheneOS, a privacy-focused Android OS. Entering the duress code triggers a full factory reset.
This is believed to be the first time federal prosecutors have brought such charges.
The incident happened in January 2025 at Atlanta airport. Agents demanded access to his phone without a warrant, saying he hadn’t yet officially entered the US. When they entered the code, the phone wiped itself.
Tunick has pleaded not guilty. His lawyers argue the seizure was unlawful and that agents were investigating his activism against “Cop City.”
Son of my home city (which I happen to be in this fine morn) deid. I hope the shock of NS oil and gas still being an asset 12 years after 2014 didn’t finish him off..
📰 'Andy Burnham needs to stop talking about Thatcher', according to Rishi Sunak in July 2026.
🗞️ 'I will be the heir to Margaret Thatcher': 'I am a Thatcherite, I am running as a Thatcherite and I will govern as a Thatcherite,' according to Rishi Sunak in July 2022. https://x.com/exPremiers/status/2081304230724239792
It's impossible to avoid speaking about Thatcher. More than any other politician since Atlee she is responsible for the way the country is now (for good or ill). The core of political debate is whether you accept the Thatcher dispensation or you don't.
The Left still hate Thatcher because she pointed out the impracticalities of all they held dear.
Then fixed them.
I'm not at all convinced Burnham hates Thatcher; I certainly don't. But she made an awful lot of mistakes we've never acknowledged.
It's an easy cop out to dismiss criticism as irrational hate.
Looks like the long overdue Green bubble deflation may be starting. They remain little more than a protest vote, and I’ve long felt their polling was gravity-defying.
Out of interest: RefCon 46%, LLG 48%. Restore might make up the difference though.
Starting?!?
It started in April when Polanski received some challenging and negative media attention and fluffed his response. The wiki graph has them peaking at nearly 16% at the beginning of April, and now down to nearly 11% and dropping fast.
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Why is Badenoch wrong to not explain what she would cut but Burnham is not criticised for not explaining how he might fund?
You don't need to raise a particular sort of tax, just more of it.
Wheras we all know that if Governments say they will cut expenditure and don't say where, they won't.
The whole point of care reform is to move expenditure from individuals to the state.
If I understand correctly that devolved governments can afford to find it, maybe what Burnham needs to do is abolish Barnett. Why can't England afford it? Ditto free bus fares from 60, free prescriptions etc
As a general rule, I don't really agree with stuff being "free".
Everyone should pay something.
No way is it going to eb free, some mugs will have to pony up. Only the shirkers will get it free, anybody that has toiled and saved cash will get left with it.
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
We need to educate the electorate - as we can't change them.
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
The 'centre right' hasn't existed since 2016. The majority of the wets couldn't stomach the power that Brexit gave us and either joined the LDs or threw their toys out of the pram in the media.
Being in favour of the EU was Tory policy for decades and all of a sudden anyone who wasn't a Brexit zealot was not wanted in the party any longer.
It is one of the key reasons why the Tories are crawling along in 3rd place on about 20% of the vote, especially now a clear majority of the electorate believe Brexit was a mistake
Predictable bed wetting from the EUzealots in reply to my pointing out the bleeding obvious.
The Conservatives won 2 election victories post the 2016 vote - including the largest one since the 80s.
Whilst continuing to mislead as to what Brexit would involve, implying there would be a very decent Brexit 'deal' whereas in practice the right of the Tory Party drove us to what was in effect a no deal hard Brexit.
And now people can see the damage that's being done and the complete absence of any significant benefit.
The damage is very much in the eye of the beholder. We had some excellent posts on here taking apart the claims of economic damage and showing that the comparisons with the EU show not much real effect. Same for benefits, but arguably again in the eye of the beholder.
Sadly for you in the eye of a majority of beholders Brexit was a mistake
Tell them the costs of rejoining and see what they say...
Brexit will ultimately end up being rather "meh". But the EU is as responsible as the UK electorate for Brexit. They did not have the gumption to negotiate - or to see that the UK Brexit would have significant adverse effects on the whole EU economy as well.
The EU was poorly served by its diplomats/technocrats.
The list of the culpable is long indeed, but as usual it is best to start at the top and work down. I would indeed start with the EU, its leading politicians, diplomats and technocrats.
It's also true that Brexit has not ended civilisation as we know it, as many included myself feared. Instead it has been sa you indicate a bit meh. Of course the mehness endures so its a permanent debility, not one you can quickly and easily overcome. But it doesn't end our ability to make better decisions in the future.
And of course there have been one or two surprise benefits, not the least of which is we no longer hear from those factions in other EU States who were keen to follow our example. That's a blessed relief, not least to the post-Brexit EU itself.
First known US case: American charged for using a “duress” password
Samuel Tunick, an Atlanta resident, is being prosecuted for allegedly giving border agents a passcode that wiped his phone.
The feature comes from GrapheneOS, a privacy-focused Android OS. Entering the duress code triggers a full factory reset.
This is believed to be the first time federal prosecutors have brought such charges.
The incident happened in January 2025 at Atlanta airport. Agents demanded access to his phone without a warrant, saying he hadn’t yet officially entered the US. When they entered the code, the phone wiped itself.
Tunick has pleaded not guilty. His lawyers argue the seizure was unlawful and that agents were investigating his activism against “Cop City.”
On most of the latest polls though Reform would win most seats still even if they fall short of a majority. So for Labour to win most seats there would need to be a lot of anti Reform tactical voting
That’s not polls saying it though is it, it’s feeding them into seat calculators saying it. How is tactical vote set on those seat calculators?
On this one you can put in your own tactical voting understanding, based on current polls if you like, or the May results, or same tv for disproportionate seat allocation based on 2024 tv, but how you understand the tactical voting subsequently makes a huge difference
Lab 63.2% of seats from just 33.7% votes. Con 18.6 from 23.7 LibdDem 12.2 from 11.1 Reform 0.8 from 14.3
I have presented lots of analysis the Ref support is based on perception of incompetence of other parties, Tories in particular, to guide how that support likely tactical votes because Reform vote is based on how very hard they campaign on incompetence of other parties. Also we start from the base of that last election result, and seeking for what’s actually changed and why, for the parameters now to be different from then.
Excl: Kemi Badenoch will only support Andy Burnham’s social care reforms if they are funded by cutting spending rather than raising taxes.
Beginning to sound like a LibDem. Can you imagine the gales of laughter from the Labour back benches if Ed Davey said the same. Labour are being kind in not pointing out how irrelevant her votes are.
Will some journalist please stand up for common sense and show an IQ above 10 and actually ask her how the fuck do you solve an issue that successive Governments including the one she served in and whch held power for 14 years can implement such massive change that is required without taxing more or borrowing more.
Seriously.
She has no answers, just stupid sound bites delivered with utter arrogance and contempt for commonsense!
Try getting used to the idea of Govt. spending less.
It's the only way out of our woes.
At least one politician has the guts to say it. You can’t tax your way to growth, and there needs to be a reduction in the scope of government.
Now, actually putting a specific reduction of the scope of government in a manifesto, and then get elected on it, is a more difficult exercise, but at least Kemi is working in the right direction in opposition.
She's in opposition without any chance of getting elected.
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
Badenoch is pretty ridiculous here promising to collaborate with social care reform *if it doesn't cost anything*.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year. On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less. And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Burnham sets his stall out with the "Government can do more". Socialism from 40 years ago.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
Well, that’s because the electorate is detached from reality and thinks everything is free, or should be free
Burnham better change the electorate then.
We need to educate the electorate - as we can't change them.
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
The 'centre right' hasn't existed since 2016. The majority of the wets couldn't stomach the power that Brexit gave us and either joined the LDs or threw their toys out of the pram in the media.
Being in favour of the EU was Tory policy for decades and all of a sudden anyone who wasn't a Brexit zealot was not wanted in the party any longer.
It is one of the key reasons why the Tories are crawling along in 3rd place on about 20% of the vote, especially now a clear majority of the electorate believe Brexit was a mistake
Predictable bed wetting from the EUzealots in reply to my pointing out the bleeding obvious.
The Conservatives won 2 election victories post the 2016 vote - including the largest one since the 80s.
The problem isn't Brexit - it is that centristdadism a la Sunak didn't appeal to the electorate, and Farage therefore stole our clothes.
Johnson won his huge majority when people still believed that Brexit was leading to the sunlit uplands. Once that illusion was dead and buried with a stake through its heart the Tories crashed to their worst defeat in decades. Sunak was a Brexiteer by the way. The Tory party own Brexit I'm afraid and by huge margins voters now believe it was a mistake.
I am quite happy for the conservative party to own brexit even though I voted remain
It is not perfect, but I do not want UVL speaking for me rather than our PM whoever that is
First known US case: American charged for using a “duress” password
Samuel Tunick, an Atlanta resident, is being prosecuted for allegedly giving border agents a passcode that wiped his phone.
The feature comes from GrapheneOS, a privacy-focused Android OS. Entering the duress code triggers a full factory reset.
This is believed to be the first time federal prosecutors have brought such charges.
The incident happened in January 2025 at Atlanta airport. Agents demanded access to his phone without a warrant, saying he hadn’t yet officially entered the US. When they entered the code, the phone wiped itself.
Tunick has pleaded not guilty. His lawyers argue the seizure was unlawful and that agents were investigating his activism against “Cop City.”
Just take a blank phone and laptop across borders, especially if you may be “of interest” to the countries you’re visiting.
The US Supreme Court decided some time ago, not long after 9/11, that the Constitution doesn’t apply at the US border.
I use GrapheneOS but I wouldn't be daft enough to give the duress password to US authorities.
Though I thought there was no way to force people to provide a PIN in US law, but you could force them to provide biometrics?
The right way to do this is to have a PIN which opens a second user account with nothing in it. I have a few so that banking apps and anything important aren't normally unocked, but I don't think there's a way to open them direct from the lock screen. I expect someone will sort this quickly.
Comments
I supported Sunak throughout and did not vote for Johnson in the member ballot
UUP+DUP+TUV = 43%
SF+SDLP= 35%
I had thought the two blocs would be fairly equal, but then am no expert on NI politics.
Beeston, which - interestingly - is due basically to come into Nottingham City with that part of Broxtowe. Basically one bit being added to Nottingham is that part between Nottingham and Derby, which seems logical. It will mean one hell of a lot more paperwork for landlords who have deliberately chosen to have their student rentals on that side of Nottingham Uni to avoid being in the City.
It's a tidy reorganisation.
Later saw him at the Rutland Water birdfair. (He really was diminutive!) And, of course, the double-act with Kate Humble on Springwatch.
Talented guy.
Boy George, not you.
(War is stupid
And people are stupid)
arguably got closer to the heart of the matter.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y6r9rdxygo
You may have not voted for Johnson in the leadership contest but you were a hundred and ten percent behind him until he soiled himself. You were more than anyone on here convinced Currygate was more important than Partygate.
Looks like Pete may be in for a redeployment.
I would say that the average Red Wall Reform voter/switcher wants social care fixed. I thought Reform was running as left on economics (e.g. nationalise water) and right on cultural issues?
Johnson was excellent on Ukraine and as good as the alternatives on Covid but his cover ups decided his fate
Curry gate is the one Starmer got away with but it didn't help him in the end did it
UKRI has put more emphasis on funding research that it believes has more potential to create new industries and jobs.
The announcement is just one of many deep cuts to astronomy projects being implemented, BBC News understand.
The UK will no longer participate in research at the James Clark Maxwell Telescope in Hawaii, which scientists are using to image supermassive black holes at the centre of galaxies.
And there will be a 20% cut in funding that supports UK participation in the Vera Rubin Telescope in Chile
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y6r9rdxygo
However, what transpires when the election is actually called, and voters are looking down the gun barrel at the people who might actually be governing them, who knows? Will they continue to regard their vote as a protest? Will the vibes win out? I think that will prove to be the defining factor. As we saw with Trump, voters seem remarkably tolerant of poor conduct, irresponsibility, amorality, and general unfitness for office, if the alternative is uninspiring and promises little change.
This is, essentially, the Big Bust Up scene, where two (or more) actors have a Shouty. Some stuff gets broken. Then one or more flounce out of the room. And slam the door so hard the whole set sways.
Maybe it is mentioned in the next episode, but beyond that, forgotten completely.
Link ignoring the introduction:
https://youtu.be/s_3aXJrlOIw?t=86
Maybe we are near ungovernable as politicians do not seem to be in the same place when wanting more spending and borrowing which clearly the public do not
I do wonder what will happen if Farage and or Tice are charged with offences but there is no certainty that it will happen
The tendency for politicians and commentators in one country to garlic-press events in another country into the culture wars of their own.
It’s pretty much the whole of X these days.
It’s not actually as bad as it looks, which is why we’re not facing $200 oil. There’s also a lot of sea traffic passing by under cover of darkness with transponders off and with US Navy cover.
Our latest voting intention sees cross over. Labour move ahead by 4. Their first lead since March 2025 & highest share since Nov 24
🌹 LAB 28% (+4) ⏩ REF 24% (-2) 🌳 CON 22% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1) 🟢 GREEN 8% (-3) 🟡 SNP 2% (nc)
N = 2061| Dates 24-27/7| Change w 22/7
https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3mrmpku2lec2k
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y6r9rdxygo
"The Jodrell Bank Observatory, which has housed the UK's largest telescope for nearly 70 years, has lost its funding and could now close, the BBC understands.
The observatory and its network of telescopes have been pivotal to the country's study of distant galaxies and training future astronomers. Scientists have described the decision as "heartbreaking" and "scientifically misguided".
All scientific observations at Jodrell are expected to cease on the 1 April 2028 unless alternative funding can be found."
Out of interest: RefCon 46%, LLG 48%. Restore might make up the difference though.
He is making his announcements when Parliament is not sitting and there is no scutiny
He is a crowd pleaser but the hard yards are ahead
I think it was @TSE who said to ignore polls until October which of course will be when Parliament is back and the conference season under way
Question is whether having ousted SKS will be enough to keep them on board when to going gets tougher.
Tories and Reform combined 6% ahead of Labour and LDs combined on votes but Labour most seats on this poll on 300 and with the 69 LD MPs would be a comfortable Labour and LD combined majority.
Reform and Tories now neck and neck on MPs, Reform 119 and Tories 116 but each projected less than half the Labour seats despite being only 4% and 6% behind Labour on voteshare
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=22&LAB=28&LIB=12&Reform=24&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=100&TVLAB=100&TVLIB=100&TVReform=100&TVGreen=100&TVUKIP=&TVNAT=100&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024base
I also love that it maintains an air of makeshift post-war optimism: some of the greatest discoveries of the 20th century have taken place in those unassuming little blocks which looks like makeshift extra classrooms.
I'd urge absolutely everyone on here to visit it while they still have the chance.
The actual reason I asked the question was because I wanted to emphasis that the initial cut got an awful lot of publicity but the reversal got a lot less publicity
Which shows how utterly bad Reeves and Starmer and all of those around them were disastrously bad at politics, new management and common sense...
If there were a 'stop pissing us about' candidate he/she would win. In the event, I expect Farage to prevail with a small majority on a record low turnout.
https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/2081706198500257990
It started in April when Polanski received some challenging and negative media attention and fluffed his response. The wiki graph has them peaking at nearly 16% at the beginning of April, and now down to nearly 11% and dropping fast.
https://x.com/gregeganSF/status/2081617044471214199
You are not agreeing the actual votes following campaigns where Reform went in two footed on the Conservatives, trumps the sentiment polling from before actual campaigns and elections 🤷♀️
There is no possible Tory and Reform electoral cohabitating. 1983 election result is an actual reference point as well as 2024.
One of the two parties has to go to “nothing status” - and on basis there’s but a lowish polling ceiling Reform can ever achieve - and same lowish ceiling for Reform in GE parliament seats because they are so far from centre and without any history of governing well or managing an economy well - all right wing support and votes to reform is now an utter waste of time, it’s actually hampering taking the fight to the left - who are just sat there laughing at us when we talk electoral cohabiting on the right.
Elections are won and government defended from the centre - two parties away to the two right of centre polling about the same at the same time, and going in hard on each other during campaigns… how on earth do you have tactical vote working?
The only thing for Conservative Party, their friends in media and donors need to focus on, the only way forward for the Conservatives, is eradication of Reform back to “nothing” status they were just a few years ago when Truss entered Number ten.
How much do I win?
First known US case: American charged for using a “duress” password
Samuel Tunick, an Atlanta resident, is being prosecuted for allegedly giving border agents a passcode that wiped his phone.
The feature comes from GrapheneOS, a privacy-focused Android OS. Entering the duress code triggers a full factory reset.
This is believed to be the first time federal prosecutors have brought such charges.
The incident happened in January 2025 at Atlanta airport. Agents demanded access to his phone without a warrant, saying he hadn’t yet officially entered the US. When they entered the code, the phone wiped itself.
Tunick has pleaded not guilty. His lawyers argue the seizure was unlawful and that agents were investigating his activism against “Cop City.”
The case raises big questions about digital rights at the US border.
https://x.com/Sans_Google/status/2081025402827354553
If Kemi starts leading in the polls can we stop ignoring them?
📰 'Andy Burnham needs to stop talking about Thatcher', according to Rishi Sunak in July 2026.
🗞️ 'I will be the heir to Margaret Thatcher': 'I am a Thatcherite, I am running as a Thatcherite and I will govern as a Thatcherite,' according to Rishi Sunak in July 2022.
https://x.com/exPremiers/status/2081304230724239792
It is not perfect, but I do not want UVL speaking for me rather than our PM whoever that is
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/07/26/climate-change-real-right-needs-to-get-serious/
That wasn't the question.
Nvidia in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion financing for data center, WSJ reports
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/nvidia-talks-with-openai-guarantee-250-billion-financing-data-center-wsj-reports-2026-07-26/
Doubtless he will ask her how she'd pay for it then, which is also fair.
Brexit will ultimately end up being rather "meh". But the EU is as responsible as the UK electorate for Brexit. They did not have the gumption to negotiate - or to see that the UK Brexit would have significant adverse effects on the whole EU economy as well.
The EU was poorly served by its diplomats/technocrats.
The Tories could not comfortably form a working coalition with Reform or anybody else.
Therein lies the Tories problem in a nutshell
Then fixed them.
A big part (not the only part, obviously) of where we went wrong over the last couple of decades was uncritically accepting large chunks of the Thatcherite consensus (looking at you, Blair and Brown).
Burnham is the first PM explicitly to say he wants to look at some of it - centralisation of government being one obvious example.; monopoly utility privatisation another.
It's doubly stupid for Sunak to say that, given he directly advocated continuing with the flawed consensus.
The US Supreme Court decided some time ago, not long after 9/11, that the Constitution doesn’t apply at the US border.
https://x.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/2081676486562459864?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
But she made an awful lot of mistakes we've never acknowledged.
It's an easy cop out to dismiss criticism as irrational hate.
It's also true that Brexit has not ended civilisation as we know it, as many included myself feared. Instead it has been sa you indicate a bit meh. Of course the mehness endures so its a permanent debility, not one you can quickly and easily overcome. But it doesn't end our ability to make better decisions in the future.
And of course there have been one or two surprise benefits, not the least of which is we no longer hear from those factions in other EU States who were keen to follow our example. That's a blessed relief, not least to the post-Brexit EU itself.
Guess what? It was originally supposed to be about terrorism, but is now used all the time.
Best of all, you have to prove you have supplied the password, not they have to prove they need a password.
On this one you can put in your own tactical voting understanding, based on current polls if you like, or the May results, or same tv for disproportionate seat allocation based on 2024 tv, but how you understand the tactical voting subsequently makes a huge difference
https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/demographic-swingometer/
Reminder, last GE
Lab 63.2% of seats from just 33.7% votes.
Con 18.6 from 23.7
LibdDem 12.2 from 11.1
Reform 0.8 from 14.3
I have presented lots of analysis the Ref support is based on perception of incompetence of other parties, Tories in particular, to guide how that support likely tactical votes because Reform vote is based on how very hard they campaign on incompetence of other parties. Also we start from the base of that last election result, and seeking for what’s actually changed and why, for the parameters now to be different from then.
THREAD/ A major new YouGov study in 7 countries examines how people see the US, NATO, and global power, threats and alliances
https://x.com/YouGov/status/2081682684787532007
Though I thought there was no way to force people to provide a PIN in US law, but you could force them to provide biometrics?
The right way to do this is to have a PIN which opens a second user account with nothing in it. I have a few so that banking apps and anything important aren't normally unocked, but I don't think there's a way to open them direct from the lock screen. I expect someone will sort this quickly.