Labour remain the favourites for most seats at the next general election – politicalbetting.com
Labour remain the favourites for most seats at the next general election – politicalbetting.com
As ever, Restore Britain remain a clear lay in this market.
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I make no predictions ....
S400 radar and launcher, hit yesterday near Kerch, worth close to $100m.
https://x.com/di_ukraine/status/2081615023970078775
However she wants cuts so I would give her some and just tell all Labour Mps to have the night off so that the Tory party owns the cuts.
https://x.com/airbusdefence/status/2081347234767999174
Apparently the programme was speeded up significantly once a potential need for it arose!
(Back to stories about wartime vs peacetime military procurement!)
It's entirely possible that Andy crashes and Burnhams.
I note she doesn't suggest where she's gong to save £14bn a year.
On top of the increase in defence spending she's advocating.
It's the usual "we'll cut waste" rhetoric.
Is there potential on the right of politics to advocate leaner government - of course. But that means government doing less.
And until they're honest about what they would cut, and how they cut, and who would lose out, it's no more than the same rhetoric we've heard for decades.
Tim Stanley
Climate change is real – and the Right needs to get serious about it
The evidence is stacking up – we only have to look out of our windows
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/07/26/climate-change-real-right-needs-to-get-serious/
And how many the UK is building? It's a world problem. The UK is doing more than its share of the heavy lifting - but the world is still getting hotter.
There's a path for the Tories to come out at most seats with some "events".
There isn't with Restore.
Labour most seats still seems the obvious outcome, if only because they have so many seats they can lose before anyone overtakes them.
That means more borrowing/more tax/likely both.
There is a greater tana evens chance that doesn't deliver - or at least becomes very unpopular as the perceived benefits don't outweigh the real costs.
https://ig.ft.com/chancellor-game/
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/10/nx-s1-5254179/los-angeles-wildfires-flame-retardant
The red stuff is more commonly used to stop a fire spreading (the other ingredients react with plants to render them non-flammable), for actually putting out extant fires they use straight water.
You wouldn’t want to be underneath either though, they can and do write off cars from the force of the water pressure!
https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/2081625662658367729
Fingers crossed this relationship survives the change of administration, as has happened previously.
Another sobering article on the jobs outlook for young people. One statistic that really jumped out at me was the 88% real terms cut in youth services spending in Dudley since 2011. And yet we can afford the triple lock, apparently. Does a country that is so careless with its young deserve a future?
But that's an impossible task especially when Kemi is playing politics badly. This is an interesting and accurate insight into the harm Kemi is doing
https://bsky.app/profile/iandunt.bsky.social/post/3mrmdcgsr722n
Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.
Instead, what is she doing? Purging moderates in her party who still believe in human rights and climate change. Fucks her electoral prospects, fucks conservatism, fucks British public life. She really is a wicked malignant idiot.
I'm far more sceptical about the plans for welfare and civil service 'savings'.
I said DWP is wealthy the way someone who's maxed out the credit card is wealthy.
Wheras we all know that if Governments say they will cut expenditure and don't say where, they won't.
The whole point of care reform is to move expenditure from individuals to the state.
If I understand correctly that devolved governments can afford to find it, maybe what Burnham needs to do is abolish Barnett. Why can't England afford it? Ditto free bus fares from 60, free prescriptions etc
Undergrad student finance to be negotiated between student, institution, and lender, with no government involvement, underwriting, or backstopping loans.
Now granted I only know about this 2nd/3rd hand from Twin A's scout pack but the impact was significant for the families impacted and probably significantly increased the number of parents claiming money for their children's "disabilities" with everyone helping to ensure the family had enough money to vaguely live on..
I can only assume it's the strong Lefty/ countercultural smell that comes off those who talk about it most.
Everyone should pay something.
The post is hysterical regardless of who wrote it, but he jumped the shark some time ago.
Most politicians are not scientists and regard science as either magic they don't understand or going against the desires of their constituents / friends with chequebooks - pick the most appropriate one for that politican.
https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/2081636957357289909
What could possibly go wrong?
It won't be simple, though.
But I agree with you here. There's simply zero chance of Burnham making £14bn of spending cuts to get Badenoch onside.
A new tax to fund social care is inevitable if Burnham actually brings in the sort of system he's talking about. It will be up to Badenoch to make the case for spending cuts on their own merit.
She has zero leverage to demand cuts now, and she's not going to dismantle the new system if it is brought in.
Wanting the world of her father, creating that of her son and all that.
Even trying to do it by institution/course often doesn't help, which is why those league tables of graduate salaries are bobbins.
This is structural because the EU was structured to be several things: a free trade and low friction project, for which there is massive support; a political union project, for which there is scant support; and a free movement of people project in practice without limits which only had qualified support.
Every option either offers the UK more than most want, or less than most want. Accountable for this state of affairs is mostly: Major, Blair, Thatcher and most of all the political class avoiding referendums on key issues for 20 years until the walls fell down.
A desire for the centre right is a strong as ever. A reformed EU would be a central plank. It isn't available. hence the huge absence and the massive distortion of our politics: just about all Labour MPs want to join the EU but it's not on the agenda.
But if you want me to put something up for you to have a go at, then most costs are hardwired into the budget through legislation. So a minor party (LibDems / Conservatives / Reform etc) can spout a lot of hot air but have no means of effecting them at present. They don't even have any leverage given the size of Labours majority. To effect change requires votes *and* the ability to get the legislation through parliament. Kemi has neither, nor a plan, nor a menu - only soundbites.
It's a process which can probably be managed if it is done over time. A radical rest would likely cause huge economic dislocation.
We need to cut expenditure. I agree some governments, not all are unwilling/unable to cut taxes but that doesn’t mean it can’t be done.
If we followed you logic there would be an ever growing state and tax bill. There has to be a limit and in my view we are at it.
We need to cut expenditure. I agree some governments, not all are unwilling/unable to cut taxes but that doesn’t mean it can’t be done.
If we followed you logic there would be an ever growing state and tax bill. There has to be a limit and in my view we are at it.
If course giving civil servants an incentive to underspebd budgets could work. Would require a massive change of culture.
That's why we get what we get from her; churlishly delivered Zero Sugar Reform UK.
I don’t doubt we could cut government expenditure significantly If there was 5he political will.
And whilst it would be lovely to believe that One Weird Trick would bring the British state back to a position where we can spend more and tax less... I'm not seeing it.
Reinstating the two-child benefit cap (which does create problems) saves 3 billion a year, tops.
Stretching North Sea oil and gas brings in about a billion a year, if the lobbyists are right (ahem).
Together, that's £1 per head per week.
All the Badenoch fanbois on here are claiming she has a plan**. She appears simply to have a soundbite.
* N.B. He's FOS too.
** She's in opposition. She doesn't need a plan-yet.
Problem will sort itself.
As long as PB exists we will never do any big fundamental reform of how the country works that we could not have done as a member of the EU.
The biggest savings come from being outside the ratchet, which happens all by itself.
If KB isn't expecting to be PM, it's fine for her to carry on without a plan beyond heckling the government. Much like Starmer pre-Trusstershambles. But if she carries on like this, and events ping her into Downing Street, she will end up like him.
I don't agree with her on this. We have avoided the question on social care for far too long. We also have a set of hugely selfish people who believe that they have the right to inherit their parents wealth, including the vastly inflated money from house price inflation yet everyone else should pay for their dad's arse to be wiped when Alzheimer's sets in. I do despair of our country at times.
Tories and Reform UK tell Burnham they will fight any plan to reform adult social care involving tax rises
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/jul/27/andy-burnham-social-care-politics-live-latest-news-defence-nhs-reform-uk-tories-updates