A clear benefit of Tariff Liberation (sic) day. Trump becomes very unpopular – politicalbetting.com
A clear benefit of Tariff Liberation (sic) day. Trump becomes very unpopular – politicalbetting.com
It's bizarro world with Trump & tariffs. It's political insanity to keep trying something that 63% of Americans oppose with no sign of voters coming around.He's had a negative approval rating in every single poll since tariff Liberation Day in 2025. That's 482 days in a row. pic.twitter.com/h5rO21bjP4
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https://x.com/SatoshiBitunix/status/1907789992715243797
The Duke of Sussex was promised a risk assessment last year, but was still waiting in June as officials struggled to cope with record dem
The Duke of Sussex is being forced to wait for a decision about his security arrangements in Britain while officials grapple with protecting an unprecedented nine former prime ministers at once, The Times has learnt.
Prince Harry was told he would be granted a risk management board at the end of last year to reassess whether he should receive automatic police protection every time he visits the UK.
The review was due to be carried out in March by the Royal and VIP Executive Committee (Ravec), an independent body overseen by the Home Office that decides which public figures should be given armed protection and at what level. However, it had still not taken place by the end of June.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/royal-family/article/prince-harry-security-uk-visit-prime-ministers-wlbgksg5r
Some might say Harry should bugger off and pay for his own security. I'd be among them. Wanting to no longer have the duties of a royal while retaining the privileges is nonsense.
Is that a dig at the number of former PMs or, for likely, Megan’s PR team trying to keep the story alive
The Democrats are pouring money into 4 Senate seats they think that they can swing: North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa (!!) and Alaska (!!!)
On the other hand they seem to be struggling in Maine after their candidate stood down on a sex scandal and are tearing each other's eyes out in Michigan.
If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick?
£50,000: 73%
50/50 chance of winning £1m: 21%
https://x.com/YouGov/status/2080286628711391377
Regret from Elon Musk:
Elon Musk has admitted he became too consumed by politics during his volatile alliance with Donald Trump and his brief appointment as the president’s financial axman, running the so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge).
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jul/23/elon-musk-regret-trump-doge-ai
Does Musk thinks it is feeling like 1888 (ish)?
US Army Education in 1945 on "Fascism". They had a load of these, including "What about Britain?", and "What do we do with Japan?"
"Army Talk Orientation Fact Sheet No 64: Fascism". Published 24 March 1945.
Text:
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Army_Talk_Orientation_Fact_Sheet/Number_64
Image:
https://archive.org/details/ArmyTalkOrientationFactSheet64-Fascism/mode/2up
If you want to read it, go to Wiki or print out, or get the PC to read it - it is quite substantial.
If such an attack could also take out Greta Thunberg, Lineker and that YouTube lefty economics guy at the same time, the church bells would ring out across Gammonland.
Even in his 90s Roy Mason needed armed protection all because as Defence/Northern Ireland Secretary he gave the IRA an absolute hiding.
Maine will come back to a handy Dem lead - the ICE+ shooting there has done for Collins.
Michigan is fun, but returning to the more sensible Dem candidate.
IPP status primarily refers to either an Internationally Protected Person (an international law designation for high-level officials) or an Imprisonment for Public Protection.
Prince William, the new "Man in the Iron Mask".
The Tower of London awaits ...
Suppose the amounts were £50m or 50/50 chance of £1bn - for most people it makes sense to actually go for the certain but lesser value choice.
So instead do this! Put tariffs on, take tariffs off! Markets will move that way and the boys can go back to making loads of money.
What's the betting the tariffs are removed on Monday (at least partially)?
All the money in the world doesn’t get you permission for your bodyguards to carry guns on the streets of the UK.
The key thing with this job is getting intelligence about who is trying to kill you.
In the US, a number of lotteries offer the choice of either a lump sum or a monthly payment for life. The monthly payment almost always works out better, but most take the lump sum and spend it frivolously.
The WildBerries warehouse says no, but the naval base says yes.
https://x.com/tymeninebrat/status/2080491897412354096
OK, America you can have Trump or the Western Alliance.
If the midterms are not an unprecedented disaster for the Republicans, with the GOP losing virtually everything and Trump being put in a box for the rest of his term, then the consequences for "American Global Leadership" should be fatal. Every day this absurdist theatre of the stupid alienates allies and comforts the biggest bastards on the planet.
Now the Western Allies will indeed rearm- but to face the American threat as much as the Russian or the Chinese. I hope the inept, corrupt fools in the "administration" get that sudden sinking feeling that Wil E. Coyote gets, just as he falls the thousands of feet to the canyon floor below.
As for Musk... jail is too good for him. The rest of the tech bros should have their near monopolies taken away from them too.
The last "gilded age" ended in the anti trust laws. I see no reason why this trashy tinsel age should not end in much the same manner. If the US will not do it itself, then the EU and China should force the issue. Enough is enough.
As for the American war on Iran... The ICJ should at least consider investigating the possible war crimes. The US may not give a fig about it, but it is part an parcel of the modus operandi of the criminal regime in Washington, and at least there should be a moral protest against this brutal stupidity.
The United States has lost its moral authority, it should begin to lose actual authority too.
Any, have a nice day everyone.
Betting too much in even very attractive circumstances is a good route to poverty.
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion)
Quite a few people would say the £80,000 would pay off their mortgage and that would make them financially secure for life.
Yes of course . Miss a good gambling theory talk on here !
I think it applies to insurance as well .
Ask someone the question where the £1m is replaced by £200k and the answers make a bit more sense.
I'd probably ask one of the rich chaps here to give me £50k, on the understanding I'd give them £150k back if I got the million.
Make it £250,000 and the 50/50 odds sound more plausible.
Also if you look at it via Deal / No Deal. If the options are 1p / £80,000 / £250,000
that £80,000 is a great deal compared to 1p...
But it’s the tiny chance of a million or more that keeps people playing.
There's no 'right' or 'wrong' answer about the choices when offered free money - but as several PBers have set out, most people tend to prioritise external factors over just the odds.
Which is one of the things which helps make betting profitable.
Is the middle around the betting of sums to win sums where the stake and potential reward are slightly meaningful ( if I bet tenner on this and it wins I can have a meal out etc) ? Ie where probability and value betting rule ?
I do find it mystifying why some righties (who would no doubt call themselves moderates) feel such animus towards certain people. The same people loved punting Harry doing his bit at Bastion and only a few short years ago they were frotting themselves stupid(er) over H&M's wedding, hailing a new age of multicultural royalty. I happened to be in Berlin that weekend but even there I could feel the hot blast of The Firm's pr doing its thing.
A fickle lot, royalists.
Personally I don’t see one year’s salary or thereabouts as a life-changing amount of money, but I would definitely see the million as such. Hell, I could bank the million and make £50k a year on the interest, or put it in the S&P and make an average of £70-£80k over time. Sure £50k would be useful, but wouldn’t really change my life.
Other people would definitely see the £50k as life-changing though, if it lets them pay off a mortgage or take a nice holiday they’ve not had in years…
Something I've now managed to avoid for about a decade now.
Some people may have rather different profiles - if you need a life saving operation then you may be prepared to risk big sums at poor odds to finance the otherwise unaffordable operation for example. But most people will have the usual profile, with what counts as small/big being shifted up or down relative to their actual wealth.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jul/23/number-10-north-growth-uk-andy-burnham
Not for any arguments it sets out (though FWIW I agree about the potential benefits of decentralisation), but for his evident confidence that he can move the dial.
That's a pretty tough ask in the three years he has available.
ETA my analogy was nonsense!
I'd want something stronger than coffee to visit IKEA.
I think Burnham's government has little to lose by speaking human and saying the truth about these things instead of being asked about them for the next three years while they evade the obvious.
https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/2080433731463217540?s=46
https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/2080434339737969132?s=46
Labour gains from Reform. Quite surprising - it’s true Reform heartland - but also given the area isn’t that far from Clacton, quite interesting.
If my wife wants to go to IKEA on Saturday, the deal is that I drive there and she drives back, I don’t have to walk around IKEA but will buy lunch and help with the loading.
If you go into the HRC at midday on a Saturday, you’ll see another dozen or so single men sitting at the bar, all with exactly the same idea. One by one over the next couple of hours they’ll meet their wives for lunch!
But she has show no evidence at all of capacity to deliver on housing.
I wonder if there is planning to do stuff despite her ?
Getting to over 300k a year by the end of Parliament is still possible and should be a realistic and SMART target.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thurrock_(constituency)
How’s about identifying a few square miles of government-owned land that can be released for development, working with industry and mortgage lenders to set up 50-year warranties on prefabricated houses, relaxing planning consent for small individual plots under 1 acre and 3,000sqft BUA, and streamlining the process for major infrastructure projects based on Hybrid Bills through Parliament.
All of the above ideas COST NO MONEY.
I solved 6 open Erdős problems in 5 days, using
@OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol.
I have a math background, but the Codex workflow I used does not require deep mathematical knowledge.
Here’s exactly how I approached it, including my prompts 🧵
https://x.com/Qiaoqiao2001/status/2080003441821163958
➡️ RFM: 28.1% (-5.1)
🌍 GRN: 27.5% (-1.9)
🌳 CON: 14.1% (+3.1)
It looks like the Burnsiah Bounce at work. Unless local effects such as candidates are behind it. So worth watching the aggregate of the locals, going forward.
Borrow from the Victorians. Plan a small town. Put in the roads. Put in the sewers, the water, the leecy, the gas. Put in the schools and the GP surgery (make it one of the those large, combined practices). Put in pubs and shops. Put in the train station, if you can justify one.
Fire up as many of those facilities as possible - the existing locals will probably want them.
Sell the plots of land to different developers. One side of a street to each.
So your typical reform voter probably didn’t bother to vote as it’s not going to make any difference to what the council is going to do
Many people not on PB think I've never had 50 grand and I can definitely get it right now, I will thanks!