Nigel Farage is becoming even more unpopular – politicalbetting.com
Nigel Farage is becoming even more unpopular – politicalbetting.com
? NEW @Ipsos_in_the_UK / @LBC poll: Labour narrows the gap to 2 ?Reform UK 26% (-1)Labour 24% (+4)Conservative 18% (-1)Greens 13% (-1)Lib Dem 11% (-1)Others 8% (-)1,045 GB adults interviewed online 25–30 June 2026. Changes from May. pic.twitter.com/7K1XeksWwT
2
Comments
Kemi now has a 28% satisfaction rating, higher than Farage's, so if she can get that 28% to all vote Tory the Tories would also overtake Reform and be neck and neck with even a Burnham led Labour. Squeezing those who supported Reform last year having voted Tory in 2024 but have now gone off Farage and some Labour voters who voted for Starmer in 2024 having voted Conservative in 2019 and think Burnham is too leftwing will be key to that for Kemi
And variations on that theme.
There's an opportunity if Burnham's Labour lurch to the Left, and Reform are spinning wheels on the economy.
1) Beyond a certain level people will not give a preference for voting for Kemi. To be effective she either needs to be massively competent and compelling as the one who can turn the country round; or she needs to be very likeable; or the alternatives need to be worse. In the current climate it isn't enough to say what is wrong with Labour. We already know. You have to be very good on coherent and comprehensible solutions.
2) For people who don't like Reform it is not sufficiently clear that the Tories would not get in bed with them under any circumstances.
3) For people who do like Reform they can either stick, switch to Lowe, DK or won't vote.
The Tories need to sort (1) and (2) urgently, and leave (3) to organise itself.
He also will believe that Labour MPs want to hold on to their seats, many in old Tory heartlands, and their scope for rebellion is small, as they are in the last chance saloon for leadership before a 2028/9 election.
IMHO Kemi's best chance is a combination of Reform sinking/splitting and Tories actually showing competence and some fight. Though I increasingly feel that the Tories may decide they need a new leader by about 12 months time. They have been protected by Labour having a leader who isn't a natural leader. No longer.
Difficult to get folk to say they will vote Tory when they are seen as a wasted vote. NB the derisory totals in Caerphilly, Gorton and Makerfield.
Their vote holds up well when they are regarded as being in with a chance. Disappears almost entirely when they aren't.
A bit like the Lib Dems.
I haven't had exposure to him - and probably won't seek to rectify that - so I must rely on others for this.
If Farage goes, cui bono ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8925nd4e59o
Yet another case. How hard would it be to sort out the compensation problem? How hard to process appeals in a timely manner?
Actually it may be impossible until we have a government prepared to take these decisions away from the court system.
While UEFA will always be in a minority and can be outvoted by other confederations, FIFA needs to remember that it is nothing without UEFA. It's world cup wouldn't be worthy of the name.
We already have 3 of 4 quarter finalists from Europe, and that's with some regular nations like Germany and Italy falling short. There will be at least another 1 and could be as many as 3 more. The European clubs will likely consist of 3 of the 4 favourites of those 8.
Ultimately, it would be sad if we had to return to a joint UEFA and CONMEBOL tournament as a replacement to the the World Cup, but there's a limit on the level of corruption we can put up with.
None of them was a surprise.
This guy got a Not Guilty on re-trial.
The reason is that the politicians were scared that they would get cases of "Guilty, but got off on a technicality. Wins the taxpayer lottery" in the papers
A collapse of Reform (down to half where they are now) is a pre-condition for a Conservative revival. Of course that works to some extent the opposite way too. The two things have a mutual dependency.
Starmer has been consistently polling below Labour. Which is why he is being replaced.
Farage is showing signs of becoming a drag on Reform. Which is why there are mutterings.
I have to admit I have been quite taken with the new format. Allowing countries such as Scotland and Cape Verde a greater chance of taking part has much enhanced the event both from a footballing and a supporters point of view. Ignoring for a moment the enjoyment of seeing England do well, the highlights of this tournament for me have been the Scottish supporters and the Cape Verde Goalkeeper. I am actually far more invested in this World Cup than I planned or expected to be.
Then you need to be sensible enough to attract the negative votes.
They aren't close to that right now.
They're managing only the second half of that.
The problem was that the most recent one was Pierre André de Suffren who won his battles in the 18th century
(At this point I will be out-detailed by someone mentioning something 3 weeks or 3 years more recent.)
I am happy with it expanding to 64 teams, 16 groups of 4. That's probably the target endstate. Getting India and China in there must be a major objective for FIFA.
Doesn't that put you off at least a bit?
I think I’d have been more invested if the games had been on at a more UK friendly time.
I do think that there should be more inter-confederation matches in qualifying, though. The double international window that's coming in for September/October would be ideal for a mini world cup the preceding autumn.
Something will give.
For the slice of the population who are hard right-curious, that's advantage Lowe; he's prepared to robustly say the stuff that Farage only insinuates.
The catch is that kind of politics is repulsive to most of the country, including some current Reform voters. Farage knows how to flash a bit of jackbooted ankle, whereas Lowe proudly shows everything right up to the black shorts. (See also the contrast between Jenrick and Yusuf, or Goodwin then and now.
Like prisoners wrongly convicted having deductions for board and lodgings taken from their compensation.
Meanwhile getting prosecutions in cases like the Post Office scandal seems as far away as ever.
The judicial system really does protect people of a certain status and fucks the rest of us over.
Suppose the finding WRT Farage's funding is such that he could have to face a byelection/reelection process in Clacton, what stance would all interested parties take towards it.
1) In a normal world it's a safe Tory seat
2) It has an abnormal history
3) Labour would struggle to decide which is worse: a Farage victory or a Tory one
4) Labour can't win
5) For the Tories it would be a great victory and a catastrophic loss
6) A White Knight/Martin Bell is a possible but is there one and if so who?
So would the other parties actually prefer to leave Farage in place, without reelection, to keep reminding us he is a flawed person rather than take the risk?
A lot rests on that interesting Thought for the Day contributor, Daniel Greenberg, the PCS.
BTW, such a byelection would be even bigger box office for the media than Makerfield.
I guess the complication is the way that Reform is structured. Both legally and practically, Reform is Nigel. Their campaign in Havering was Nigel thinks that Andrew Rosindell is great, by the way they have endorsed these (largely invisible) local candidates.
If I were an exasperated Reform MP, I think I'd find a dictionary and look for Re- words that haven't been taken yet.
It's not about "got off on a technicality", but rather the desire not to pay out money at all, I think.
Do you really want to live in a world where Restore is getting to 10%, say?
‘ Buy now, pay later…the Fabian Society have rustled up a proposal to offer first time buyers interest free deposits for the first five years of 20% or 40% if in London, on new builds to “enable” 136,000 make their “first step” on the ladder’
https://x.com/emmafildes/status/2074011311701119031?s=61
Blame Osborne - another of his clever wheezes - as it was “intended to reduce the burden on the taxpayer” according to the MoJ at the time
Rupert Lowe: under investigation by Parliament
Nigel Farage: parrots the views of an unpleasant American
Rupert Lowe: parrots the views of an unpleasant American
Nigel Farage: is racist, but tries to pretend he isn’t
Rupert Lowe: is racist, but tries slightly less hard to pretend he isn’t
"'Most' women in jail in England and Wales shouldn't be there, says prisons minister Lord Timpson"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/jul/06/nigel-farage-reform-unregistered-gift-crypto-christopher-harborne-keir-starmer-labour-andy-burnham-uk-politics-live
Your drawing of moral equivalence is incredibly shabby and frankly calls into question your entire moralistic oeuvre.
India got a bye to the second round, but came 3rd in their group of 4, equal on points with Afghanistan. So, nowhere near.
Or we could look at rankings. When the AFC qualifiers began, China were rated 80th in the world, two spots above Jordan, who did qualify. India was down at #99. China is now down to #91 and India to #138. China is thus only just below the lowest ranked team in the competition (Haiti, #88). It’s Pakistan that has the most impressively poor ranking (#198) for such a populous country.
BASH: “You have pics of people cutting a 350 foot gash in the bottom of the reflecting pool?”
BURGUM: “I’m not sure why you and the media keep questioning it.”
https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/2073779452266324272
No one has been able to produce a single photo of vandals harming the reflecting pool – except this one.
https://x.com/NewtonWombat/status/2073821583953871151?s=20
https://x.com/Kaos_Vs_Control/status/2073834697117909446
Relevant Tim Traveller video: https://youtu.be/KCYNrPfIzQw
Though some say it was invented much earlier, in the Third Age, during the Battle of Greenfields
I suspect some on here, leftwingers and liberals and even a few Tories cheer on Restore only as they split the Reform vote under FPTP
youtube.com/watch?v=ckumTtD9Y1k&vl=en-GB
The last of over 5,000 reinforced concrete segments has been lifted into position for the Chipping Warden 'green tunnel' - marking a major milestone for one of the longest 'cut and cover' tunnels on the project 👇🎥.
Set to stretch for one-and-a-half miles, the tunnel is being built inside a cutting, with the earth put back on top afterwards, helping to blend the high-speed railway into the landscape and cut noise and disturbance for people* living nearby.
https://x.com/HS2ltd/status/2073013973171966271
(*the few hundred Tory constituents)
3.2m views; and about the same number of likes as the total of Chipping Warden residents.
A World Cup turned upside down.
Red cards are not overturned by political phone calls. They are overturned by rules, evidence and independent bodies. If a U.S. President intervenes with the FIFA President — and a player is suddenly cleared before a World Cup knockout match — the question is unavoidable: Quo vadis, FIFA?</I
https://x.com/SeppBlatter/status/2074022159916130658
Infantino has managed to tarnish what was a good WC and should be removed after the competition ends .
Personally, I reckon that with the current planning regime we have, putting the entire of HS2 in a tunnel would have been the cheap, quick solution.
The largest and fifth largest oil refineries in Russia are now burning, one of those, Omsk, being 2,500km from Ukraine, and the other, Yaroslavl, being one of the refineries near Moscow. Also a mini-refinery in Kaluga was hit. Plus also the oil export terminals near St Petersburg were hit by drones, and a couple of fuel tanker ships trying to deliver fuel to Crimea.
However, none of the 23 ballistic missiles fired by Russia were intercepted, suggesting that Ukraine may have completely run out of Patriot interceptor missiles, and is now entirely defenceless in the face of ballistic missiles. Another apartment building in Kyiv has partially collapsed as a result - not sure what the other targets were this time.
I certainly do not think the Restore / Lowe / Tommy Robinson faction is a good thing to have in UK politics. However, racists and racist political parties have been around for a long time. Do I like them no, should they be banned (provided they are not acting criminally or inciting violence) no.
As someone noted in the comments, Farage has always got away with showing a little bit of xenophobic/racist Jackboot to get the far right on board. Restore is reducing his ability to do that. So he’s got to decide does he let the far right voters back Restore or does he get down into the ordure with Lowe. His decision may turn on actually whether he is genuine racist/xenophobe or just a political opportunist.
Change the planning regime. As it currently stands it's a luxury we can't afford.
HS2; the cost of nuclear power in the UK; our apparently irredeemable housing shortage - all of those things, and more are symptoms of that.
Facebook take no action on AI-generated far-right ‘influence campaign’ after it was flagged a month ago
Tech giant has taken no action against far-right, AI-generated videos about Britain without any indication they are fake or created thousands of miles away, an investigation by Hebe Campbell reveals
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/facebook-far-right-ai-video-life-in-britain-b3004975.html
The continent’s border-control system is out of control" (£)
https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/07/01/europes-airport-queues-are-extremely-long-and-getting-longer
Farage's problem is to win a majority or most seats he needs both those voters and some centrist swing voters which is a near impossible balancing act short of a complete collapse of the Tories to Reform which would be his only other route to No 10
The streamlined (and successful) process for offshore wind would be a good example of how things can be improved.
But that would create an enormous back lash from those with vested interests in the Enquiry Industrial Complex.
With extra !!
I CALLED IT, ANIMALS, AND YOU LAUGHED!!! Months ago I told you ICE would buy facilities DIRECTLY from the prison companies at north of $150,000 per bed — and I was WRONG, folks, it was BETTER!!! ICE just bought TWO facilities from CoreCivic —
$CXW
— for $1.47 BILLION!!! That's $286,000 per bed in California City, $371,000 PER BED at Otay Mesa, $323,000 a bed COMBINED — DOUBLE what these things cost to build!!! Even I underestimated the beauty, and I NEVER underestimate!!!
AND WHO OWNS
$CXW
??? DONALD TRUMP!!! It's RIGHT THERE in the disclosure, folks — the man holds CoreCivic AND GEO Group, the two companies running America's ICE detention centers!!! Follow the bouncing ball: HE runs the immigration crackdown!!! HIS DHS just wired $1.47 billion to a company HE OWNS SHARES IN, at DOUBLE replacement cost!!! The buyer is his government, the seller is his portfolio, and the taxpayer is the ATM!!! That's not a conflict of interest, that's a CLOSED LOOP!!!
And the STRUCTURE is a masterpiece: DHS buys the buildings, but CoreCivic KEEPS OPERATING them under the same contracts..
https://x.com/TrumpsPortfolio/status/2074105975670239368
Russia has no way of doing that so they're chucking missiles at apartment buildings and hoping for... something, I'm not sure what. The only way those missiles make any kind of real difference is if Russia puts NBC warheads on them, but Putin knows that's a guaranteed way to get NATO forces involved before the debris has cooled down.
So yes, I can see why people say Group X does not belong in prison but I'm not clever enough to design a better system. What worries me is we seem to be producing a worse one as politicians pander to public outrage.
(He isn't a bit like my Scot brother-in-law, or the Scots I met on my brief visit there, years ago.)
If Trump hadn't used up so many Patriot interceptors in his stupid Iran war many of the Ukrainian civilian deaths could have been avoided.