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Another poll shows Restore set to hand Burnham victory – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,189
edited June 13 in General
Another poll shows Restore set to hand Burnham victory – politicalbetting.com

New Makerfield poll by @OpiniumResearch Lab 46%Reform 41%Restore 7%The Conservatives are on around 2.5 per cent, while the Greens and Lib Dems are each below 2 per cent, meaning they would all lose their deposit.https://t.co/K3sHo2LW7w

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Comments

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,221
    edited June 13
    First!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,365
    Starting to think Burnham is going to be a bit like Labour's Boris. Someone with a personal brand who can attract voters turned off by the party. Ideologically flexible. And someone who is fairly dependent on the team around him.

    Hopefully a bit less corrupt/law breaking.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,982
    I'm sure I pointed out on day 1 - that the likely result was Burnham winning because Restore split the Reform vote.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,492
    If Reform's candidate is as poor as all that, perhaps Restore are doing Reform a favour by preventing him becoming an MP.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,542
    It's going to be Make or Breakerfield for Burnham.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,976
    At some point, there's a difficult question for Reform supporters to ask. Yes, a lot of Reform voters are good people, with understandable frustrations about the state of the nation. But...

    If so many of the candidates that Reform puts forward are terrible people, is it because Reform are a terrible party?

    Farage somehow escapes the flack he deserves, because some individuals have this weird Teflon quality. But the rest of them?

    That Mitchell and Webb sketch about the SS officers ought to apply.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,023
    edited June 13
    It does look as if Burnham will win and while clearly he will have given Labour a bounce he could have Lowe to thank if he wins the seat and the Reform and Restore combined votes is bigger than his vote. Kemi would be somewhat pleased too if Restore start taking Reform votes forcing Farage to harden his line on deportations and turning off some 2024 Tory voters who have gone Reform but are not white nationalists like some Restore and 2024 Reform voters.

    The Tories meanwhile are largely ignoring Makerfield and focusing on Aberdeen South. I donated to a CCHQ by election appeal last week for the Aberdeen South campaign in the final push to try and gain the seat from the SNP
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,691
    Do we know if Restore and Reform voters are fully fungible?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,023
    rkrkrk said:

    Starting to think Burnham is going to be a bit like Labour's Boris. Someone with a personal brand who can attract voters turned off by the party. Ideologically flexible. And someone who is fairly dependent on the team around him.

    Hopefully a bit less corrupt/law breaking.

    Boris only won one general election though and lasted only three years as PM. Streeting will hope he is the David Cameron to Burnham’s Boris and Starmer’s May in that case. Cameron won two general elections, albeit one with the LDs and lasted six years as PM.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,976
    rkrkrk said:

    Starting to think Burnham is going to be a bit like Labour's Boris. Someone with a personal brand who can attract voters turned off by the party. Ideologically flexible. And someone who is fairly dependent on the team around him.

    Hopefully a bit less corrupt/law breaking.


    Hashtag Better Barnetted Boris

    Everything about him screams the same sort of approach to politics as Mr Bozza. And yes, the team is going to be critical. One of the reasons that BoJo failed, even before Covid and all the scandals, was that he surrounded himself with loyal nitwits so that he could be the Big Dog. If Burnham can choose better, he may have a chance.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,753

    Do we know if Restore and Reform voters are fully fungible?

    Yes, as a Tory activist put it to me, Reform wants to deport illegal immigrants/Boriswave immigrants Restore wants to deport all non whites.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,339
    HYUFD said:

    It does look as if Burnham will win and while clearly he will have given Labour a bounce he could have Lowe to thank if he wins the seat and the Reform and Restore combined votes is bigger than his vote. Kemi would be somewhat pleased too if Restore start taking Reform votes forcing Farage to harden his line on deportations and turning off some 2024 Tory voters who have gone Reform but are not white nationalists like some Restore and 2024 Reform voters.

    The Tories meanwhile are largely ignoring Makerfield and focusing on Aberdeen South. I donated to a CCHQ by election appeal last week for the Aberdeen South campaign in the final push to try and gain the seat from the SNP

    Not sure that is true. Farage has (at least in tone) put Reform nearer Restore in this election, and if the strategy fails, it is not necessarily an invitation to do more of it. Also, if Restore blocks Reform, there will be a lot of condemnation for them on the right, and less likelihood in a future GE of those votes in Reform target seats going to Restore again.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,339
    Dura_Ace said:

    The Fukkers might have done better with a candidate who wasn't a fucking moron with a troubling social media history. Having said that, the number of activists they have who are not fucking morons with a troubling social media history can probably be counted on the webbed toes of one of their voters.

    'troubling social media history' - dear me, when did you turn into such a delicate bloom? You've said worse most days before breakfast.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,858
    eek said:

    I'm sure I pointed out on day 1 - that the likely result was Burnham winning because Restore split the Reform vote.

    A right wing version of the Judean People’s Front and the People’s Front of Judea, handing Burnham a narrow win.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,915
    BBC: “What advice did David Hockney give to you?”

    BBC Guest: “Enjoy life and fuck everyone.”

    https://x.com/scottygb/status/2065529025229930924
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,587
    Nigelb said:

    BBC: “What advice did David Hockney give to you?”

    BBC Guest: “Enjoy life and fuck everyone.”

    https://x.com/scottygb/status/2065529025229930924

    Well, she fucked the interviewer good and hard there. Mission accomplished.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,982

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Fukkers might have done better with a candidate who wasn't a fucking moron with a troubling social media history. Having said that, the number of activists they have who are not fucking morons with a troubling social media history can probably be counted on the webbed toes of one of their voters.

    'troubling social media history' - dear me, when did you turn into such a delicate bloom? You've said worse most days before breakfast.
    The troubling part is that he was stupid enough to say things you would say / hear down the pub in a public space that remembers.

    The killer bit about Social media isn't just that it results in people saying more than they would but that social media remembers unless you remember to delete it.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,976
    Nigelb said:

    BBC: “What advice did David Hockney give to you?”

    BBC Guest: “Enjoy life and fuck everyone.”

    https://x.com/scottygb/status/2065529025229930924

    Why did they get former Primer Minister Boris Johnson on to talk about David Hockney?
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,315
    Restore or Reform

    One thing is clear there isn't room for 3 right wing Parties and the tired old one of the 3 is Kemis Tories

    Not hard to see more Tory defections.

    The Tories have a stark choice become the third choice Fringe right wing Party under Kemi or target the centre ground, sensible One Nation Tory Party under Cleverly or Hunt.

    There is a lot of fertile ground there that would not touch the current Tory Leadership with a barge pole

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 10,095
    Nigelb said:

    BBC: “What advice did David Hockney give to you?”

    BBC Guest: “Enjoy life and fuck everyone.”

    https://x.com/scottygb/status/2065529025229930924

    lol literally
  • JSpringJSpring Posts: 118
    The poll of course doesn't show Restore handing Burnham victory. The Restore share of the vote is only slightly higher than Burnham's lead, and Burnham would almost certainly win if those were the shares under a preferential or transferrable voting system too. Not that that will stop it being the narrative if this is the result.
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 465
    Dura_Ace said:

    The Fukkers might have done better with a candidate who wasn't a fucking moron with a troubling social media history. Having said that, the number of activists they have who are not fucking morons with a troubling social media history can probably be counted on the webbed toes of one of their voters.

    Are you the same bloke who came on here last month and called Henry Nowak a racist Hitler look-a-like? I'd stop moralising about other people's posts if I were you.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,385
    I rarely stick up for Reform but they were in a difficult bind with the candidate selection for this by-election. You can't hope to beat Burnham's name recognition or political experience so the only option is to select a hyper local candidate with a good anti politics background. How many choices did Reform really have for that type of candidate? Also that type of person will always come with the downsides of potentially ill advised social media posts and a certain lack of polish in discussing issues of national importance. The Green lady from Gorton and Denton was s really rare example of an anti politician who seemed not to have any of those downsides.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,915
    That's going to mess with the IPO, amongst other things.

    The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

    The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

    Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

    We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

    https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2065597531644743999

    Is the motive here just to mess with Anthropic, which does not have the best relations with this administration ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,023
    Brixian59 said:

    Restore or Reform

    One thing is clear there isn't room for 3 right wing Parties and the tired old one of the 3 is Kemis Tories

    Not hard to see more Tory defections.

    The Tories have a stark choice become the third choice Fringe right wing Party under Kemi or target the centre ground, sensible One Nation Tory Party under Cleverly or Hunt.

    There is a lot of fertile ground there that would not touch the current Tory Leadership with a barge pole

    There is plenty of room for a centre right party which is not a rehash of the LDs, even more so if Restore start taking Reform votes
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,915

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Fukkers might have done better with a candidate who wasn't a fucking moron with a troubling social media history. Having said that, the number of activists they have who are not fucking morons with a troubling social media history can probably be counted on the webbed toes of one of their voters.

    Are you the same bloke who came on here last month and called Henry Nowak a racist Hitler look-a-like? I'd stop moralising about other people's posts if I were you.
    Seemed like a fairish assessment rather than moralising.
    Your ad hom notwithstanding.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,265
    edited June 13
    Brixian59 said:

    Restore or Reform

    One thing is clear there isn't room for 3 right wing Parties and the tired old one of the 3 is Kemis Tories

    Not hard to see more Tory defections.

    The Tories have a stark choice become the third choice Fringe right wing Party under Kemi or target the centre ground, sensible One Nation Tory Party under Cleverly or Hunt.

    There is a lot of fertile ground there that would not touch the current Tory Leadership with a barge pole

    You are correct

    There is not room for 3 right wing parties, but then there are only 2 right wing parties, Reform and Restore, whilst Kemi is centre right and not only Kemi will lead the party of the centre right over the next 3 years but she will overtake the other 2 and in the process I fear you will combust
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,509

    Do we know if Restore and Reform voters are fully fungible?

    Well if you give them £5m in crypto....

    Sorry, thought you said "fundable".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,023

    HYUFD said:

    It does look as if Burnham will win and while clearly he will have given Labour a bounce he could have Lowe to thank if he wins the seat and the Reform and Restore combined votes is bigger than his vote. Kemi would be somewhat pleased too if Restore start taking Reform votes forcing Farage to harden his line on deportations and turning off some 2024 Tory voters who have gone Reform but are not white nationalists like some Restore and 2024 Reform voters.

    The Tories meanwhile are largely ignoring Makerfield and focusing on Aberdeen South. I donated to a CCHQ by election appeal last week for the Aberdeen South campaign in the final push to try and gain the seat from the SNP

    Not sure that is true. Farage has (at least in tone) put Reform nearer Restore in this election, and if the strategy fails, it is not necessarily an invitation to do more of it. Also, if Restore blocks Reform, there will be a lot of condemnation for them on the right, and less likelihood in a future GE of those votes in Reform target seats going to Restore again.
    There are plenty of Restore core voters who want mass deportations of immigrants, certainly illegal immigrants and won’t vote for Farage and Reform again unless they commit to that. Even if it lets Labour in
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,976

    Do we know if Restore and Reform voters are fully fungible?

    Probably not completely so.

    Leave aside the personal rivalry/hatred stuff... that only really matters at leadership level. There will be some Reform voters for whom Restore is simply a goose step too far. Same as there are some current Conservatives for whom Reform is unacceptably right-wing, and some exiled wet Conservatives for whom the current iteration of the Conservative party is too much.

    What's probably the case is that there are some voters who do want the most right-wing item on the menu. Especially if it's led by a respectable-looking old man with smart shoes, and not a visibly obvious thug in bovver boots. They endured voting Conservative (if they voted at all), tolerated Reform, but will always go for redder meat if it's available.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,753
    edited June 13
    Anyhoo.

    One of Restore's biggest fans Young Bob, a remigration supporter, and citizen journalist/auditor/social media 'star' has managed to get at least three people convicted for their part in the Southampton riots as the rozzers used his live streams/videos.

    I’ll put my hands up and say that I was wrong in the way I covered Southampton, and I definitely needed to be more cautious in how I reported on events.

    Knowing what I know now, I would have approached the situation completely differently. Going forward, I will either blur faces of patriots or attend protests without filming at all.


    https://x.com/YoungBobRB/status/2065446821292396744
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,556
    Nigelb said:

    That's going to mess with the IPO, amongst other things.

    The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

    The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

    Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

    We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

    https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2065597531644743999

    Is the motive here just to mess with Anthropic, which does not have the best relations with this administration ?

    Difficult to say for sure but, sad to say, I can easily see that being the case with Trump in charge. I mean, the man starts wars because someone annoyed him on X. I hardly think it is a stretch to think he would set the dogs on a company that looked at him in a funny way.
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 465
    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Fukkers might have done better with a candidate who wasn't a fucking moron with a troubling social media history. Having said that, the number of activists they have who are not fucking morons with a troubling social media history can probably be counted on the webbed toes of one of their voters.

    'troubling social media history' - dear me, when did you turn into such a delicate bloom? You've said worse most days before breakfast.
    The troubling part is that he was stupid enough to say things you would say / hear down the pub in a public space that remembers.

    The killer bit about Social media isn't just that it results in people saying more than they would but that social media remembers unless you remember to delete it.

    As a large number of people who went online to defend a Bulgarian man and his wife, who have now been convicted in Dundee of assaulting a 12 year old girl after saying 'come here sexy, I will show you a good time', are finding out.

    This includes the former first minister Humza Yousef, who of course has failed to apologise. Still waiting on John Swinney and the police to apologise too. The police told people not to post misinformation and then posted misinformation.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,556
    JSpring said:

    The poll of course doesn't show Restore handing Burnham victory. The Restore share of the vote is only slightly higher than Burnham's lead, and Burnham would almost certainly win if those were the shares under a preferential or transferrable voting system too. Not that that will stop it being the narrative if this is the result.

    Except this isn't a preferential or transferrable voting system so, yes, the poll does of course show exactly what TSE is saying.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,915
    edited June 13

    Nigelb said:

    That's going to mess with the IPO, amongst other things.

    The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

    The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

    Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

    We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

    https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2065597531644743999

    Is the motive here just to mess with Anthropic, which does not have the best relations with this administration ?

    Difficult to say for sure but, sad to say, I can easily see that being the case with Trump in charge. I mean, the man starts wars because someone annoyed him on X. I hardly think it is a stretch to think he would set the dogs on a company that looked at him in a funny way.
    The other implication is that the US may prevent future UK/European access to its best technology in the future.
    Independent European AI development is pretty well essential to its future economic competitiveness - and probably national security.

    It would be a huge gamble to assume that definitely won't happen.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,967

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Fukkers might have done better with a candidate who wasn't a fucking moron with a troubling social media history. Having said that, the number of activists they have who are not fucking morons with a troubling social media history can probably be counted on the webbed toes of one of their voters.

    'troubling social media history' - dear me, when did you turn into such a delicate bloom? You've said worse most days before breakfast.
    I suppose when DA is put forward as a prospective MP the shit will really hit the fan.
    I’d hope at least he wouldn’t wibble and reverse ferret over his troubling social media history.

    Did you call our ex PM a fat, lying, sack of jizz?

    Aye.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,214

    Do we know if Restore and Reform voters are fully fungible?

    Well if you give them £5m in crypto....

    Sorry, thought you said "fundable".
    Anyone know why the Farage donation wasn't paid in crypto so it would have been impossible/difficult to trace. Know sod all about crypto but it seems a fundamental schoolboy error to me.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,822

    Anyhoo.

    One of Restore's biggest fans Young Bob, a remigration supporter, and citizen journalist/auditor/social media 'star' has managed to get at least three people convicted for their part in the Southampton riots as the rozzers used his live streams/videos.

    I’ll put my hands up and say that I was wrong in the way I covered Southampton, and I definitely needed to be more cautious in how I reported on events.

    Knowing what I know now, I would have approached the situation completely differently. Going forward, I will either blur faces of patriots or attend protests without filming at all.


    https://x.com/YoungBobRB/status/2065446821292396744

    To be fair, how could he have foreseen that posting video footage of people rioting might be used as evidence that those same people were engaged in rioting?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,509
    Stereodog said:

    I rarely stick up for Reform but they were in a difficult bind with the candidate selection for this by-election. You can't hope to beat Burnham's name recognition or political experience so the only option is to select a hyper local candidate with a good anti politics background. How many choices did Reform really have for that type of candidate? Also that type of person will always come with the downsides of potentially ill advised social media posts and a certain lack of polish in discussing issues of national importance. The Green lady from Gorton and Denton was s really rare example of an anti politician who seemed not to have any of those downsides.

    They should have got an early apology prepared - to defuse the issue.

    Looks like a poor campaign.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,976

    Brixian59 said:

    Restore or Reform

    One thing is clear there isn't room for 3 right wing Parties and the tired old one of the 3 is Kemis Tories

    Not hard to see more Tory defections.

    The Tories have a stark choice become the third choice Fringe right wing Party under Kemi or target the centre ground, sensible One Nation Tory Party under Cleverly or Hunt.

    There is a lot of fertile ground there that would not touch the current Tory Leadership with a barge pole

    You are correct

    There is not room for 3 right wing parties, but then there are only 2 right wing parties, Reform and Restore, whilst Kemi is centre right and not only Kemi will lead the party of the centre right over the next 3 years but she will overtake the other 2 and in the process I fear you will combust
    A couple of questions, if you don't mind me asking:

    1 Thinking about the current shadow cabinet, they've shifted to the right compared with (say) Cameron's shadow cabinet before 2010, or Thatcher's cabinet in 1990, haven't they? I'm not aware of anyone whose politics map onto say Caroline Spelman, George Young or Ken Clarke... let alone John Gummer or Chris Patten. The "centre" in "centre-right" feels like it's in much fainter type than it used to be- isn't it?

    2 Why does Kemi Badenoch get three years to turn things around (because her party is not doing well at the moment), when that allowance doesn't seem to be made to anyone else? What's the source of your confidence that she will?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,492
    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,858
    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,339

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Fukkers might have done better with a candidate who wasn't a fucking moron with a troubling social media history. Having said that, the number of activists they have who are not fucking morons with a troubling social media history can probably be counted on the webbed toes of one of their voters.

    'troubling social media history' - dear me, when did you turn into such a delicate bloom? You've said worse most days before breakfast.
    I suppose when DA is put forward as a prospective MP the shit will really hit the fan.
    I’d hope at least he wouldn’t wibble and reverse ferret over his troubling social media history.

    Did you call our ex PM a fat, lying, sack of jizz?

    Aye.
    I'm not so sure. I'm behind the PB edge-lord 'just off to burn my granny's priceless Chippendale' persona - it's a strong brand, but when it comes to some scenarios, the inner centrist Dad emerges gollum-like and starts calling Starmer 'my dude' and labelling social media posts as 'troubling'. Cringey. Reminds me of when Barty Bobbins goes all BLM.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531

    JSpring said:

    The poll of course doesn't show Restore handing Burnham victory. The Restore share of the vote is only slightly higher than Burnham's lead, and Burnham would almost certainly win if those were the shares under a preferential or transferrable voting system too. Not that that will stop it being the narrative if this is the result.

    Except this isn't a preferential or transferrable voting system so, yes, the poll does of course show exactly what TSE is saying.
    How many Restore would be non-voters if the party wasn't on the ballot?

    Indeed, I don't think Restore will do as well as shown because I suspect a lot of their support is people who wont be arsed for various reasons on the day itself.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,509
    Brixian59 said:

    Restore or Reform

    One thing is clear there isn't room for 3 right wing Parties and the tired old one of the 3 is Kemis Tories

    Not hard to see more Tory defections.

    The Tories have a stark choice become the third choice Fringe right wing Party under Kemi or target the centre ground, sensible One Nation Tory Party under Cleverly or Hunt.

    There is a lot of fertile ground there that would not touch the current Tory Leadership with a barge pole

    Given how many of those Tory MPs who have defected must be reimaginng a world where they hadn't, I suspect the well is pretty much dry.

    And how much glory have these defector brought Reform, compared to the numerous awkward questions they now pose? Farage will be far more retiscent about taking in anybody else that detoxifies the Tories.
  • StarryStarry Posts: 216
    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
    Most Sikhs wear basically a badge in the shape of a dagger. It's tiny and could not seriously be called a weapon. The killer also had one. He did not need to carry an actual knife for religious purposes.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,339

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Fukkers might have done better with a candidate who wasn't a fucking moron with a troubling social media history. Having said that, the number of activists they have who are not fucking morons with a troubling social media history can probably be counted on the webbed toes of one of their voters.

    'troubling social media history' - dear me, when did you turn into such a delicate bloom? You've said worse most days before breakfast.
    The troubling part is that he was stupid enough to say things you would say / hear down the pub in a public space that remembers.

    The killer bit about Social media isn't just that it results in people saying more than they would but that social media remembers unless you remember to delete it.

    As a large number of people who went online to defend a Bulgarian man and his wife, who have now been convicted in Dundee of assaulting a 12 year old girl after saying 'come here sexy, I will show you a good time', are finding out.

    This includes the former first minister Humza Yousef, who of course has failed to apologise. Still waiting on John Swinney and the police to apologise too. The police told people not to post misinformation and then posted misinformation.
    Quite.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531

    Brixian59 said:

    Restore or Reform

    One thing is clear there isn't room for 3 right wing Parties and the tired old one of the 3 is Kemis Tories

    Not hard to see more Tory defections.

    The Tories have a stark choice become the third choice Fringe right wing Party under Kemi or target the centre ground, sensible One Nation Tory Party under Cleverly or Hunt.

    There is a lot of fertile ground there that would not touch the current Tory Leadership with a barge pole

    Given how many of those Tory MPs who have defected must be reimaginng a world where they hadn't, I suspect the well is pretty much dry.

    And how much glory have these defector brought Reform, compared to the numerous awkward questions they now pose? Farage will be far more retiscent about taking in anybody else that detoxifies the Tories.
    Farage has said no more defections after the May local elections which of course have now passed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,265
    edited June 13

    Brixian59 said:

    Restore or Reform

    One thing is clear there isn't room for 3 right wing Parties and the tired old one of the 3 is Kemis Tories

    Not hard to see more Tory defections.

    The Tories have a stark choice become the third choice Fringe right wing Party under Kemi or target the centre ground, sensible One Nation Tory Party under Cleverly or Hunt.

    There is a lot of fertile ground there that would not touch the current Tory Leadership with a barge pole

    You are correct

    There is not room for 3 right wing parties, but then there are only 2 right wing parties, Reform and Restore, whilst Kemi is centre right and not only Kemi will lead the party of the centre right over the next 3 years but she will overtake the other 2 and in the process I fear you will combust
    A couple of questions, if you don't mind me asking:

    1 Thinking about the current shadow cabinet, they've shifted to the right compared with (say) Cameron's shadow cabinet before 2010, or Thatcher's cabinet in 1990, haven't they? I'm not aware of anyone whose politics map onto say Caroline Spelman, George Young or Ken Clarke... let alone John Gummer or Chris Patten. The "centre" in "centre-right" feels like it's in much fainter type than it used to be- isn't it?

    2 Why does Kemi Badenoch get three years to turn things around (because her party is not doing well at the moment), when that allowance doesn't seem to be made to anyone else? What's the source of your confidence that she will?
    Times have changed since Thatcher and Cameron's days with Brexit and problems with covid and the war in Ukraine taking huge amounts of resources meaning we need to seriously cut the welfare bill

    Immigration and the boats is a toxic part of the problems and decisive action is required to address this and if necessary exciting the ECHR

    We are in a period of 5 maybe 7 party politics and I do believe in time labour and the conservatives will regain votes lost to the left and right but also need good leaders, and despite the usual anti Kemi suspects, she is being noticed and tops approval ratings

    It could be Burnham does get a honeymoon period and certainly the Andy Kemi show is likely to be very different and even more collegiate

    Of course I could be wrong but my instinct is telling me Kemi will continue to shine and it is the first requisite to help recover the conservative brand
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,023
    edited June 13

    Brixian59 said:

    Restore or Reform

    One thing is clear there isn't room for 3 right wing Parties and the tired old one of the 3 is Kemis Tories

    Not hard to see more Tory defections.

    The Tories have a stark choice become the third choice Fringe right wing Party under Kemi or target the centre ground, sensible One Nation Tory Party under Cleverly or Hunt.

    There is a lot of fertile ground there that would not touch the current Tory Leadership with a barge pole

    You are correct

    There is not room for 3 right wing parties, but then there are only 2 right wing parties, Reform and Restore, whilst Kemi is centre right and not only Kemi will lead the party of the centre right over the next 3 years but she will overtake the other 2 and in the process I fear you will combust
    A couple of questions, if you don't mind me asking:

    1 Thinking about the current shadow cabinet, they've shifted to the right compared with (say) Cameron's shadow cabinet before 2010, or Thatcher's cabinet in 1990, haven't they? I'm not aware of anyone whose politics map onto say Caroline Spelman, George Young or Ken Clarke... let alone John Gummer or Chris Patten. The "centre" in "centre-right" feels like it's in much fainter type than it used to be- isn't it?

    2 Why does Kemi Badenoch get three years to turn things around (because her party is not doing well at the moment), when that allowance doesn't seem to be made to anyone else? What's the source of your confidence that she will?
    Mel Stride was a Remainer and is pretty centrist as are Laura Trott and Helen Whateley and Andrew Bowie and Victoria Atkins
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,915
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Fukkers might have done better with a candidate who wasn't a fucking moron with a troubling social media history. Having said that, the number of activists they have who are not fucking morons with a troubling social media history can probably be counted on the webbed toes of one of their voters.

    'troubling social media history' - dear me, when did you turn into such a delicate bloom? You've said worse most days before breakfast.
    I suppose when DA is put forward as a prospective MP the shit will really hit the fan.
    I’d hope at least he wouldn’t wibble and reverse ferret over his troubling social media history.

    Did you call our ex PM a fat, lying, sack of jizz?

    Aye.
    I am tempted to stand for election as an MP just to see the Daily Mail data mine my contributions on here.

    FURY AT CANDIDATE'S VILE INTERNET POSTS. "I'M GLAD THE QUEEN IS DEAD. FUCK HER."

    Today, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called for a retired Royal Navy officer to be prosecuted for treason as sickening posts made on a Internet forum came to light.

    "This arsehole is bang out of order," she said before snapping her glasses in anger.
    Do it, please.
    The Greens need more spice in their offering.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,339
    Starry said:

    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
    Most Sikhs wear basically a badge in the shape of a dagger. It's tiny and could not seriously be called a weapon. The killer also had one. He did not need to carry an actual knife for religious purposes.
    The murderer was not carrying a kirpan, but he did justify his carrying of a deadly weapon by referencing the law concerning carrying them. That makes the law just as much a contributing factor as it would be if he had stabbed Nowak using a kirpan.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,507
    eek said:

    I'm sure I pointed out on day 1 - that the likely result was Burnham winning because Restore split the Reform vote.

    I disagree with the "Restore will cost Reform the election" narrative. The pool of non-voters that Reform could try to get to vote for them is much bigger than the pool of Restore voters.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,672
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Fukkers might have done better with a candidate who wasn't a fucking moron with a troubling social media history. Having said that, the number of activists they have who are not fucking morons with a troubling social media history can probably be counted on the webbed toes of one of their voters.

    'troubling social media history' - dear me, when did you turn into such a delicate bloom? You've said worse most days before breakfast.
    I suppose when DA is put forward as a prospective MP the shit will really hit the fan.
    I’d hope at least he wouldn’t wibble and reverse ferret over his troubling social media history.

    Did you call our ex PM a fat, lying, sack of jizz?

    Aye.
    I am tempted to stand for election as an MP just to see the Daily Mail data mine my contributions on here.

    FURY AT CANDIDATE'S VILE INTERNET POSTS. "I'M GLAD THE QUEEN IS DEAD. FUCK HER."

    Today, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called for a retired Royal Navy officer to be prosecuted for treason as sickening posts made on a Internet forum came to light.

    "This arsehole is bang out of order," she said before snapping her glasses in anger.
    Do it, please.
    The Greens need more spice in their offering.
    No longer a party member. I left when ZP wanted to have a policy "conversation" about abolishing the monarchy and leaving NATO.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,509
    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    How long before Restore claims the right for all Brits to carry a Tommy's WW1 bayonet?

    "Iz only fair, innit?"
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,339
    edited June 13

    Brixian59 said:

    Restore or Reform

    One thing is clear there isn't room for 3 right wing Parties and the tired old one of the 3 is Kemis Tories

    Not hard to see more Tory defections.

    The Tories have a stark choice become the third choice Fringe right wing Party under Kemi or target the centre ground, sensible One Nation Tory Party under Cleverly or Hunt.

    There is a lot of fertile ground there that would not touch the current Tory Leadership with a barge pole

    You are correct

    There is not room for 3 right wing parties, but then there are only 2 right wing parties, Reform and Restore, whilst Kemi is centre right and not only Kemi will lead the party of the centre right over the next 3 years but she will overtake the other 2 and in the process I fear you will combust
    A couple of questions, if you don't mind me asking:

    1 Thinking about the current shadow cabinet, they've shifted to the right compared with (say) Cameron's shadow cabinet before 2010, or Thatcher's cabinet in 1990, haven't they? I'm not aware of anyone whose politics map onto say Caroline Spelman, George Young or Ken Clarke... let alone John Gummer or Chris Patten. The "centre" in "centre-right" feels like it's in much fainter type than it used to be- isn't it?

    2 Why does Kemi Badenoch get three years to turn things around (because her party is not doing well at the moment), when that allowance doesn't seem to be made to anyone else? What's the source of your confidence that she will?
    In case you hadn't noticed, the entire debate has shifted right. Labour's most successful PM has come out against Net Zero and mainstream commentators are openly questioning why the PM is still determined to hose money at Milliband, not sack him and fund the army - how stupid would Kemi look now if she had given cover to Labour by sticking to the Tories endorsement of the accelerated Net Zero push?

    Likewise on immigration, we have Burnham saying Labour need to get a grip on the boats and that councils should be able to refuse migrant centres. Kemi is ahead of this because she realised that we need to leave the ECHR, and she now looks prescient.

    Both of these things were furiously clucked at by our centrist brigade. You don't want Kemi to go to the centre because you think there are votes there, you want it because you're worried that what was centrism is being abandoned. Well it is.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,365
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Fukkers might have done better with a candidate who wasn't a fucking moron with a troubling social media history. Having said that, the number of activists they have who are not fucking morons with a troubling social media history can probably be counted on the webbed toes of one of their voters.

    'troubling social media history' - dear me, when did you turn into such a delicate bloom? You've said worse most days before breakfast.
    I suppose when DA is put forward as a prospective MP the shit will really hit the fan.
    I’d hope at least he wouldn’t wibble and reverse ferret over his troubling social media history.

    Did you call our ex PM a fat, lying, sack of jizz?

    Aye.
    I am tempted to stand for election as an MP just to see the Daily Mail data mine my contributions on here.

    FURY AT CANDIDATE'S VILE INTERNET POSTS. "I'M GLAD THE QUEEN IS DEAD. FUCK HER."

    Today, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called for a retired Royal Navy officer to be prosecuted for treason as sickening posts made on a Internet forum came to light.

    "This arsehole is bang out of order," she said before snapping her glasses in anger.
    I suspect anyone who has commented on here for a while will have a few hostages to fortune. Yours would be particularly hilarious tbf.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,498
    edited June 13
    Was thinking through the likely implications of Lowe's party taking more than the difference between Lab and Ref this morning.

    Preventing a Reform win, and allowing Burnham back into parliament, has a good chance of increasing Farage's chances of himself, or someone from his party, becoming a PM with a majority. All our experiences of Farage are that he continually gets close, before pressure builds and events dictate his cause - at least - triumphs.

    It happened with UKIP forcing a referendum, and then Brexit winning. And then forcing through Johnson's Brexit in 2019 after stepping down his candidates in Tory seats.

    I see Restore stopping Reform's win leading to a Burnham coronation. But the economics won't change positively. The chances of the bond markets taking fright increase, if anything. And then the chances of needing external influence - i.e. IMF - also increase. I can't see that doing anything BUT good for Reform, finally killing off the last vestiges of Labour support.....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,498
    Nigelb said:

    That's going to mess with the IPO, amongst other things.

    The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

    The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

    Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

    We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

    https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2065597531644743999

    Is the motive here just to mess with Anthropic, which does not have the best relations with this administration ?

    Mythos 5 can identify cybersecurity holes and backdoors. Fable 5 can, it is feared, be used to design bioweapons. So it's probably that.

    For instance, from a couple of days ago:-

    Scientists angered as Anthropic AI shuts them out
    US tech giant imposes guardrails to prevent criminals abusing new Fable chatbot for nefarious tasks

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/06/10/anthropic-ai-bioweapons-fable-mythos/ (£££)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,858

    Nigelb said:

    That's going to mess with the IPO, amongst other things.

    The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

    The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

    Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

    We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

    https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2065597531644743999

    Is the motive here just to mess with Anthropic, which does not have the best relations with this administration ?

    Mythos 5 can identify cybersecurity holes and backdoors. Fable 5 can, it is feared, be used to design bioweapons. So it's probably that.

    For instance, from a couple of days ago:-

    Scientists angered as Anthropic AI shuts them out
    US tech giant imposes guardrails to prevent criminals abusing new Fable chatbot for nefarious tasks

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/06/10/anthropic-ai-bioweapons-fable-mythos/ (£££)
    Anthropic themselves have been insinuating that the new models are dangerously good, now they appear surprised that the Commerce department appears to be taking a close interest in them.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,498
    edited June 13

    Brixian59 said:

    Restore or Reform

    One thing is clear there isn't room for 3 right wing Parties and the tired old one of the 3 is Kemis Tories

    Not hard to see more Tory defections.

    The Tories have a stark choice become the third choice Fringe right wing Party under Kemi or target the centre ground, sensible One Nation Tory Party under Cleverly or Hunt.

    There is a lot of fertile ground there that would not touch the current Tory Leadership with a barge pole

    You are correct

    There is not room for 3 right wing parties, but then there are only 2 right wing parties, Reform and Restore, whilst Kemi is centre right and not only Kemi will lead the party of the centre right over the next 3 years but she will overtake the other 2 and in the process I fear you will combust
    A couple of questions, if you don't mind me asking:

    1 Thinking about the current shadow cabinet, they've shifted to the right compared with (say) Cameron's shadow cabinet before 2010, or Thatcher's cabinet in 1990, haven't they? I'm not aware of anyone whose politics map onto say Caroline Spelman, George Young or Ken Clarke... let alone John Gummer or Chris Patten. The "centre" in "centre-right" feels like it's in much fainter type than it used to be- isn't it?

    2 Why does Kemi Badenoch get three years to turn things around (because her party is not doing well at the moment), when that allowance doesn't seem to be made to anyone else? What's the source of your confidence that she will?
    The 1990 cabinet who eventually royally fucked up the ERM situation, and then chose the successor who ended up with a massive defeat in 1997 IN SPITE of economic feel good....

    Perhaps those proto centrist Dads were the root cause of the Tory failure....

    I'd have taken my chances with Portillo, Howard and Redwood persuing a 90s Thatcherism any day.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531

    Young Bob
    @YoungBobRB

    This turnout is bigger than Great Yarmouth!!

    I’m here in Makerfield for Restore Britain’s national day of action, alongside hundreds of patriots on the ground, ready to offer the people of Makerfield an anti-establishment alternative.

    https://x.com/YoungBobRB/status/2065714999880814852
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,531
    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    1h
    One hell of a letter in The Times today from General Sir Nick Carter, a former head of the armed forces

    He warns that Britain risks becoming ‘Belgium with nuclear weapons’ unless it spends more on defence

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2065738379694666229
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,507
    Mortimer said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Restore or Reform

    One thing is clear there isn't room for 3 right wing Parties and the tired old one of the 3 is Kemis Tories

    Not hard to see more Tory defections.

    The Tories have a stark choice become the third choice Fringe right wing Party under Kemi or target the centre ground, sensible One Nation Tory Party under Cleverly or Hunt.

    There is a lot of fertile ground there that would not touch the current Tory Leadership with a barge pole

    You are correct

    There is not room for 3 right wing parties, but then there are only 2 right wing parties, Reform and Restore, whilst Kemi is centre right and not only Kemi will lead the party of the centre right over the next 3 years but she will overtake the other 2 and in the process I fear you will combust
    A couple of questions, if you don't mind me asking:

    1 Thinking about the current shadow cabinet, they've shifted to the right compared with (say) Cameron's shadow cabinet before 2010, or Thatcher's cabinet in 1990, haven't they? I'm not aware of anyone whose politics map onto say Caroline Spelman, George Young or Ken Clarke... let alone John Gummer or Chris Patten. The "centre" in "centre-right" feels like it's in much fainter type than it used to be- isn't it?

    2 Why does Kemi Badenoch get three years to turn things around (because her party is not doing well at the moment), when that allowance doesn't seem to be made to anyone else? What's the source of your confidence that she will?
    The 1990 cabinet who eventually royally fucked up the ERM situation, and then chose the successor who ended up with a massive defeat in 1997 IN SPITE of economic feel good....

    Perhaps those proto centrist Dads were the root cause of the Tory failure....

    I'd have taken my chances with Portillo, Howard and Redwood persuing a 90s Thatcherism any day.....
    Thatcherism was a one-off.
    You can only sell off the council houses, on the cheap, once.
    You can only sell off the public utility companies, on the cheap, once.
    You can only steal Scotland's oil once.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,672

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    1h
    One hell of a letter in The Times today from General Sir Nick Carter, a former head of the armed forces

    He warns that Britain risks becoming ‘Belgium with nuclear weapons’ unless it spends more on defence

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2065738379694666229

    Note that Belgium is not notably troubled by invading Russians.
  • StarryStarry Posts: 216

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    1h
    One hell of a letter in The Times today from General Sir Nick Carter, a former head of the armed forces

    He warns that Britain risks becoming ‘Belgium with nuclear weapons’ unless it spends more on defence

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2065738379694666229

    I'd vote for that!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,498

    Mortimer said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Restore or Reform

    One thing is clear there isn't room for 3 right wing Parties and the tired old one of the 3 is Kemis Tories

    Not hard to see more Tory defections.

    The Tories have a stark choice become the third choice Fringe right wing Party under Kemi or target the centre ground, sensible One Nation Tory Party under Cleverly or Hunt.

    There is a lot of fertile ground there that would not touch the current Tory Leadership with a barge pole

    You are correct

    There is not room for 3 right wing parties, but then there are only 2 right wing parties, Reform and Restore, whilst Kemi is centre right and not only Kemi will lead the party of the centre right over the next 3 years but she will overtake the other 2 and in the process I fear you will combust
    A couple of questions, if you don't mind me asking:

    1 Thinking about the current shadow cabinet, they've shifted to the right compared with (say) Cameron's shadow cabinet before 2010, or Thatcher's cabinet in 1990, haven't they? I'm not aware of anyone whose politics map onto say Caroline Spelman, George Young or Ken Clarke... let alone John Gummer or Chris Patten. The "centre" in "centre-right" feels like it's in much fainter type than it used to be- isn't it?

    2 Why does Kemi Badenoch get three years to turn things around (because her party is not doing well at the moment), when that allowance doesn't seem to be made to anyone else? What's the source of your confidence that she will?
    The 1990 cabinet who eventually royally fucked up the ERM situation, and then chose the successor who ended up with a massive defeat in 1997 IN SPITE of economic feel good....

    Perhaps those proto centrist Dads were the root cause of the Tory failure....

    I'd have taken my chances with Portillo, Howard and Redwood persuing a 90s Thatcherism any day.....
    Thatcherism was a one-off.
    You can only sell off the council houses, on the cheap, once.
    You can only sell off the public utility companies, on the cheap, once.
    You can only steal Scotland's oil once.
    Or, just perhaps, no one else has had the imagination and intellectual confidence to try and replicate it.

    This 'stealing Scotland's oil' is particularly objectionable. The country INCLUDES Scotland; we bailed them out to achieve it, and have been bailing them out consistently since....
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,073

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    1h
    One hell of a letter in The Times today from General Sir Nick Carter, a former head of the armed forces

    He warns that Britain risks becoming ‘Belgium with nuclear weapons’ unless it spends more on defence

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2065738379694666229

    Old military bloke waffling on......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,023
    edited June 13
    Mortimer said:

    Was thinking through the likely implications of Lowe's party taking more than the difference between Lab and Ref this morning.

    Preventing a Reform win, and allowing Burnham back into parliament, has a good chance of increasing Farage's chances of himself, or someone from his party, becoming a PM with a majority. All our experiences of Farage are that he continually gets close, before pressure builds and events dictate his cause - at least - triumphs.

    It happened with UKIP forcing a referendum, and then Brexit winning. And then forcing through Johnson's Brexit in 2019 after stepping down his candidates in Tory seats.

    I see Restore stopping Reform's win leading to a Burnham coronation. But the economics won't change positively. The chances of the bond markets taking fright increase, if anything. And then the chances of needing external influence - i.e. IMF - also increase. I can't see that doing anything BUT good for Reform, finally killing off the last vestiges of Labour support.....

    All the polling shows a Burnham led Labour would overtake Reform or get close. Restore eating into Reform voters is a disaster for Farage. The left want a more tax and spend government and they will never vote Reform and while it might hit growth if focused on the rich and high earners such tax rises won’t hit swing voters and the markets can’t argue with spending funded by taxes. The biggest risk for Burnham is if his proposed social care levy hits middle England
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,098
    edited June 13

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    1h
    One hell of a letter in The Times today from General Sir Nick Carter, a former head of the armed forces

    He warns that Britain risks becoming ‘Belgium with nuclear weapons’ unless it spends more on defence

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2065738379694666229

    So… good chocolate, and chips with mayonnaise?

    Military guy says more should be spent on defence. Let me see if I can find a doctor to say more should be spend on health. Obviously, the real answer is that more should be spend on universities, which I know as a professor.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,499
    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
    AIUI he claimed the large knife was covered under the religious exemption. Surely all you need to do is put some limits on the design of the ceremonial knife (say no more than 1 inch long). I’m sure the Sikh religious leadership could work with a government on a suitable list.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,498
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Was thinking through the likely implications of Lowe's party taking more than the difference between Lab and Ref this morning.

    Preventing a Reform win, and allowing Burnham back into parliament, has a good chance of increasing Farage's chances of himself, or someone from his party, becoming a PM with a majority. All our experiences of Farage are that he continually gets close, before pressure builds and events dictate his cause - at least - triumphs.

    It happened with UKIP forcing a referendum, and then Brexit winning. And then forcing through Johnson's Brexit in 2019 after stepping down his candidates in Tory seats.

    I see Restore stopping Reform's win leading to a Burnham coronation. But the economics won't change positively. The chances of the bond markets taking fright increase, if anything. And then the chances of needing external influence - i.e. IMF - also increase. I can't see that doing anything BUT good for Reform, finally killing off the last vestiges of Labour support.....

    All the polling shows a Burnham led Labour would overtake Reform or get close. Restore eating into Reform voters is a disaster for Farage. The left want a more tax and spend government and they will never vote Reform and while it might hit growth if focused on the rich and high earners tax rises won’t hit swing voters and the markets can’t argue with spending funded by taxes. The biggest risk for Burnham is if his proposed social care levy hits middle England
    The biggest risk for Burnham is winning...PM for a few months before the IMF step in. One positive is it will prove Truss was right all along....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,707
    edited June 13

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    1h
    One hell of a letter in The Times today from General Sir Nick Carter, a former head of the armed forces

    He warns that Britain risks becoming ‘Belgium with nuclear weapons’ unless it spends more on defence

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2065738379694666229

    Fine. The UK has the second biggest defence budget in Europe today after Germany. Is it spending the money well? If not, sort that out and then come back for a raise.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,499

    Starry said:

    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
    Most Sikhs wear basically a badge in the shape of a dagger. It's tiny and could not seriously be called a weapon. The killer also had one. He did not need to carry an actual knife for religious purposes.
    The murderer was not carrying a kirpan, but he did justify his carrying of a deadly weapon by referencing the law concerning carrying them. That makes the law just as much a contributing factor as it would be if he had stabbed Nowak using a kirpan.
    No, it doesn’t. That logic says that the law is to blame for offences committed by “sovereign citizens”.

    If someone breaks the law (or falsely claims a safe harbour) the law isn’t a contributing factor
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,098

    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
    AIUI he claimed the large knife was covered under the religious exemption. Surely all you need to do is put some limits on the design of the ceremonial knife (say no more than 1 inch long). I’m sure the Sikh religious leadership could work with a government on a suitable list.
    He claimed many things that weren’t true and which were rejected at court. I’m not certain we should be looking to his claimed interpretation of the current law.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,052

    Anyhoo.

    One of Restore's biggest fans Young Bob, a remigration supporter, and citizen journalist/auditor/social media 'star' has managed to get at least three people convicted for their part in the Southampton riots as the rozzers used his live streams/videos.

    I’ll put my hands up and say that I was wrong in the way I covered Southampton, and I definitely needed to be more cautious in how I reported on events.

    Knowing what I know now, I would have approached the situation completely differently. Going forward, I will either blur faces of patriots or attend protests without filming at all.


    https://x.com/YoungBobRB/status/2065446821292396744

    Its interesting that he still assumes he will be able to walk to the next protest.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,073

    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
    AIUI he claimed the large knife was covered under the religious exemption. Surely all you need to do is put some limits on the design of the ceremonial knife (say no more than 1 inch long). I’m sure the Sikh religious leadership could work with a government on a suitable list.
    There are various limits around but no national one, and the length limits may be too large.

    In courts up to 4 inch blade on 6 inch knife.
    In schools up to 6 inch blade.
    Sports stadia tend to be 5 inch blade.

    I'd suggest limiting the exemption everywhere to a 3 inch limit.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,976

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    1h
    One hell of a letter in The Times today from General Sir Nick Carter, a former head of the armed forces

    He warns that Britain risks becoming ‘Belgium with nuclear weapons’ unless it spends more on defence

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2065738379694666229

    So… good chocolate and chips with mayonnaise?
    I'm sure the stats are distorted by Euro-headquartersness... but is the Belgan state doing a better or worse job at enabling its citizens to live good lives? It's not obvious that it's as much of a threat as General Sir Nick thinks.

    That gap... between what Britain has, what Britain thinks it has, what Britain thinks it ought to have and what Britain thinks it ought to be able to do with it feels like a big hole where an important conversation ought to be happening, but isn't.

    And I'm not sure that our political/media system is well set up to have that conversation.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,501
    Golden Boot: Mexico's Jimenez (scored in opening game) is approx 50/1 with trads but you can get 149 on bf (I just took 169).

    Saka is also way too big with bf at 279.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,339

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    1h
    One hell of a letter in The Times today from General Sir Nick Carter, a former head of the armed forces

    He warns that Britain risks becoming ‘Belgium with nuclear weapons’ unless it spends more on defence

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2065738379694666229

    So… good chocolate, and chips with mayonnaise?

    Military guy says more should be spent on defence. Let me see if I can find a doctor to say more should be spend on health. Obviously, the real answer is that more should be spend on universities, which I know as a professor.
    I am (feels dirty) inclined to agree. Having listened to all the arguments I am loath to hose money at the MOD in its current form. Tell us what forces we need, in what areas, and how we can get there in a very lean, efficient way, potentially with compromises on efficiency where manufacturing or technological capabilities need to be kept in the UK. Then you can have a bit of money. I do not feel inclined to spend more on generals, admirals, shit vanity projects, and bungs to the US military-industrial complex, with no plan and no reform. I would feel exactly the same about any other Government expenditure.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,858
    Starry said:

    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
    Most Sikhs wear basically a badge in the shape of a dagger. It's tiny and could not seriously be called a weapon. The killer also had one. He did not need to carry an actual knife for religious purposes.
    Yes I’ve seen a few Sikhs posting the same, that they wear a pin badge.

    Which begs the question as to why the exemption needs to exist, which is I suspect the motive of the Sikh group behind the petition wanting to keep said exemption in place.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,315
    boulay said:

    Seen elsewhere.

    “If I was a prime Minister I would replace Border Control with GPs receptionists, see who is getting in then…”

    Routine appointments at my GP now booking four weeks ahead, up from two weeks. They are also illegally refusing to allow online booking. I would switch, but they are very competent otherwise.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,339

    Starry said:

    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
    Most Sikhs wear basically a badge in the shape of a dagger. It's tiny and could not seriously be called a weapon. The killer also had one. He did not need to carry an actual knife for religious purposes.
    The murderer was not carrying a kirpan, but he did justify his carrying of a deadly weapon by referencing the law concerning carrying them. That makes the law just as much a contributing factor as it would be if he had stabbed Nowak using a kirpan.
    No, it doesn’t. That logic says that the law is to blame for offences committed by “sovereign citizens”.

    If someone breaks the law (or falsely claims a safe harbour) the law isn’t a contributing factor
    He would still have been breaking the law if he had stabbed someone with a kirpan - there are laws against stabbing people. What's under consideration is whether repeal of the law permitting carrying weapons of this type would make the public safer. This case makes that impossible to deny.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,498
    edited June 13
    carnforth said:

    boulay said:

    Seen elsewhere.

    “If I was a prime Minister I would replace Border Control with GPs receptionists, see who is getting in then…”

    Routine appointments at my GP now booking four weeks ahead, up from two weeks. They are also illegally refusing to allow online booking. I would switch, but they are very competent otherwise.
    Are you sure online booking of appointments is required? My GP's system allows me to request a phone or in-person appointment but cannot book them directly – I'd get a call back for that. I'd imagine in any case it is a function of whatever off-the-shelf software packages our respective GPs use but you'd think they'd all have the law covered.

    ETA as a separate issue, if your GP is booked up four weeks ahead, that surely is just another sign we need to train (or import) more doctors. One problem aiui is that the NHS subsidises associate clinicians rather than doctors.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,315

    carnforth said:

    boulay said:

    Seen elsewhere.

    “If I was a prime Minister I would replace Border Control with GPs receptionists, see who is getting in then…”

    Routine appointments at my GP now booking four weeks ahead, up from two weeks. They are also illegally refusing to allow online booking. I would switch, but they are very competent otherwise.
    Are you sure online booking of appointments is required? My GP's system allows me to request a phone or in-person appointment but cannot book them directly – I'd get a call back for that. I'd imagine in any case it is a function of whatever off-the-shelf software packages our respective GPs use but you'd think they'd all have the law covered.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjed4qvzjeyo
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,339
    Sandpit said:

    Starry said:

    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
    Most Sikhs wear basically a badge in the shape of a dagger. It's tiny and could not seriously be called a weapon. The killer also had one. He did not need to carry an actual knife for religious purposes.
    Yes I’ve seen a few Sikhs posting the same, that they wear a pin badge.

    Which begs the question as to why the exemption needs to exist, which is I suspect the motive of the Sikh group behind the petition wanting to keep said exemption in place.
    According to my limited research, the Kirpan is there in readiness to defend ones' family against attack. Well, we don't allow carrying of weapons to defend yourself in the UK, we rely (perhaps naively) on the authorities.

    If the readiness is merely symbolical, the weapon can be symbolical (ie not a real dagger, or a dagger that cannot be used like a skian du (sp)). If the readiness is real, it's illegal. We should have true equality before the law.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,498

    Starry said:

    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
    Most Sikhs wear basically a badge in the shape of a dagger. It's tiny and could not seriously be called a weapon. The killer also had one. He did not need to carry an actual knife for religious purposes.
    The murderer was not carrying a kirpan, but he did justify his carrying of a deadly weapon by referencing the law concerning carrying them. That makes the law just as much a contributing factor as it would be if he had stabbed Nowak using a kirpan.
    No, it doesn’t. That logic says that the law is to blame for offences committed by “sovereign citizens”.

    If someone breaks the law (or falsely claims a safe harbour) the law isn’t a contributing factor
    He would still have been breaking the law if he had stabbed someone with a kirpan - there are laws against stabbing people. What's under consideration is whether repeal of the law permitting carrying weapons of this type would make the public safer. This case makes that impossible to deny.
    Does it? The number of stabbings (even if down on 1977) suggests laws against using knives are routinely ignored, let alone carrying them.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,875

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    1h
    One hell of a letter in The Times today from General Sir Nick Carter, a former head of the armed forces

    He warns that Britain risks becoming ‘Belgium with nuclear weapons’ unless it spends more on defence

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2065738379694666229

    Belgium will declare war on us for this insult and only our nuclear deterrent will save us, if it actually works.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,339

    Starry said:

    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
    Most Sikhs wear basically a badge in the shape of a dagger. It's tiny and could not seriously be called a weapon. The killer also had one. He did not need to carry an actual knife for religious purposes.
    The murderer was not carrying a kirpan, but he did justify his carrying of a deadly weapon by referencing the law concerning carrying them. That makes the law just as much a contributing factor as it would be if he had stabbed Nowak using a kirpan.
    No, it doesn’t. That logic says that the law is to blame for offences committed by “sovereign citizens”.

    If someone breaks the law (or falsely claims a safe harbour) the law isn’t a contributing factor
    He would still have been breaking the law if he had stabbed someone with a kirpan - there are laws against stabbing people. What's under consideration is whether repeal of the law permitting carrying weapons of this type would make the public safer. This case makes that impossible to deny.
    Does it? The number of stabbings (even if down on 1977) suggests laws against using knives are routinely ignored, let alone carrying them.
    Given that the killer was carrying a deadly weapon unchallenged because he claimed a religious exemption, yes.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,498
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    boulay said:

    Seen elsewhere.

    “If I was a prime Minister I would replace Border Control with GPs receptionists, see who is getting in then…”

    Routine appointments at my GP now booking four weeks ahead, up from two weeks. They are also illegally refusing to allow online booking. I would switch, but they are very competent otherwise.
    Are you sure online booking of appointments is required? My GP's system allows me to request a phone or in-person appointment but cannot book them directly – I'd get a call back for that. I'd imagine in any case it is a function of whatever off-the-shelf software packages our respective GPs use but you'd think they'd all have the law covered.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjed4qvzjeyo
    OK on closer inspection, the NHS app can be used to book GP appointments, but I think you first need a special code from your GP in order to connect. I use a different link on my GP's website. This is another problem – a mess of overlapping and unconnected systems. Still, I can see the average salary at the practice (not adjusted for part-timers) so that's all good.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,339

    Steven Swinford
    @Steven_Swinford
    ·
    1h
    One hell of a letter in The Times today from General Sir Nick Carter, a former head of the armed forces

    He warns that Britain risks becoming ‘Belgium with nuclear weapons’ unless it spends more on defence

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2065738379694666229

    Nobody calling themselves 'Nick' should ever have been made a general. No offence to our own Nick/s, but an abbreviated name is too ephemeral and not serious enough for that sort of work.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,498

    Starry said:

    Sandpit said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is interesting, from a Change.org email. Why Sikh leaders are demanding a public enquiry:

    Dabinderjit Singh, chief executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation, has started a Change.org petition demanding a statutory public inquiry into the death of 18-year-old Henry Nowak, and the institutions that failed him.

    The petition argues that multi-agency oversights contributed to Henry’s death; that police conduct at the scene was seriously deficient; and that a criminal trial at Southampton Crown Court not only failed to deliver justice for his family but brought the sacred Kirpan — a Sikh religious symbol — needlessly into disrepute.

    do you agree? Sign Dabinderjit Singh’s petition today.

    There was a lot of reporting that appeared to suggest the Sikh ceremonial knife was the murder weapon, but that wasn’t actually the case.

    The Sikh community are worried that there will now be pressure to remove the religious exemption that exists for carrying these ceremonial knives in public.
    Most Sikhs wear basically a badge in the shape of a dagger. It's tiny and could not seriously be called a weapon. The killer also had one. He did not need to carry an actual knife for religious purposes.
    The murderer was not carrying a kirpan, but he did justify his carrying of a deadly weapon by referencing the law concerning carrying them. That makes the law just as much a contributing factor as it would be if he had stabbed Nowak using a kirpan.
    No, it doesn’t. That logic says that the law is to blame for offences committed by “sovereign citizens”.

    If someone breaks the law (or falsely claims a safe harbour) the law isn’t a contributing factor
    He would still have been breaking the law if he had stabbed someone with a kirpan - there are laws against stabbing people. What's under consideration is whether repeal of the law permitting carrying weapons of this type would make the public safer. This case makes that impossible to deny.
    Does it? The number of stabbings (even if down on 1977) suggests laws against using knives are routinely ignored, let alone carrying them.
    Given that the killer was carrying a deadly weapon unchallenged because he claimed a religious exemption, yes.
    If unchallenged, he did not need to claim anything. But as it happened, the knife covered by the exemption was different from the knife used to kill Nowak. And any exemption would not have covered murder in any case.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,858
    Al Carns doesn’t sound like he’s quietly retiring to the back benches.

    https://x.com/alistaircarns/status/2065754367739805770

    This week the most advanced AI model on the planet got switched off by a foreign government. British researchers were studying it. British companies were testing it. British hospitals were piloting it. Not any more.

    This isn't an AI story. It's the story of every industry we used to lead.

    Britain has some of the best AI talent in the world. DeepMind was built here. Our AI Safety Institute writes the rules other countries follow. We have the researchers, the universities, the standards.

    What we don't have is the power stations to run the data centres, the planning system to build them, or the industrial base to make the chips. So the work happens here and the value lands somewhere else. We invent. Others build. Others decide. Then we read about it on Saturday morning.

    Same story as the kit our soldiers don't have. Same story as the factories we used to.

    I spent nine months in government making this argument inside the room. I'll make it louder from outside.
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 465
    Noticed in Arbroath by election, Reform have gone from 20/1 to 10/1 in a week, Labour moved the opposite way. Probably just noise, still can't see SNP losing this, even on a low turnout.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,052
    Scotland's women are giving an example to the Scottish men by absolutely annihilating Ireland in the Women's WC. Surely a sign of good things to come.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,498
    Sandpit said:

    Al Carns doesn’t sound like he’s quietly retiring to the back benches.

    https://x.com/alistaircarns/status/2065754367739805770

    This week the most advanced AI model on the planet got switched off by a foreign government. British researchers were studying it. British companies were testing it. British hospitals were piloting it. Not any more.

    This isn't an AI story. It's the story of every industry we used to lead.

    Britain has some of the best AI talent in the world. DeepMind was built here. Our AI Safety Institute writes the rules other countries follow. We have the researchers, the universities, the standards.

    What we don't have is the power stations to run the data centres, the planning system to build them, or the industrial base to make the chips. So the work happens here and the value lands somewhere else. We invent. Others build. Others decide. Then we read about it on Saturday morning.

    Same story as the kit our soldiers don't have. Same story as the factories we used to.

    I spent nine months in government making this argument inside the room. I'll make it louder from outside.

    He is correct – not that it usually helps much in politics. He could add that the City has given up on British companies so they have to look abroad for investment.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,498
    Are we at war? Has Belgium attacked? Or is it the flypast for His Majesty?
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