Reform might be value in Makerfield now – politicalbetting.com
Reform might be value in Makerfield now – politicalbetting.com
Based on the latest Survation poll Andy Burnham led Reform by 10% with Restore on 8%. If Nigel Farage’s party can squeeze Restore to within an inch of their political life and with then this effectively becomes a 50/50 race and given the price of Reform currently I think they are worth a punt.
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If some of them live in Makersfield, I wonder how they would vote in this by- election?
But I can’t shake my uninformed view that Burnham will win easily.
If the Reform candidate was a firebrand, maybe. But he’s a damp squib.
Humiliation for Trump. As expected, Netanyahu ignored his pleas not to attack Iran. Israel struck Iran several times overnight.
Iranian missiles are now en route to Israel.
Shown Farage's video his comments split the group, some agreed with his general thrust, others felt he had gone far too far. Even for some who were fans of Farage they didn't like the sense that he had gone against Henry Nowak's families wishes to cause division about the case.
Also I don't see why a new party should sit out a by-election to help another party beat him. By-elections are too scarce and a new party needs the experience. (Haven't noticed whether Your Party is in this campaign.)
The Iran-backed militia in Yemen the Houthis say they have banned all Israeli shipping from the Red Sea and any movement will be considered a target.
In a way Burnham is where Starmer was in 2024. But unless Burnham has a plan he’s going to be right back where SKS is now.
It is always "too close to call", and "only X can beat Y here" in order to mobilise voters and team.
I’ve no,doubt they worked together behind the scenes on it while taking public positions for domestic consumption.
I think it can variously mean "we are really worried we are losing" or "it's in the bag - can't believe you asked".
He's probably concerned about turnout. Burnham will win because he's the root to getting rid of Starmer.
And that's as far as most people's thinking will go.
A good value loser.
CIA assessments are that Iran will be back up to full drone inventories in 6 months. With the rate they have used their kit, the US will take nearer to 6 years.
I don't want Burnham to replace him.
If I lived in Makerfield I would spoil my ballot.
Can't say I'm convinced, but it's too late to ask that question now.
In the first hours of the US-Israeli strike on Iran in March, the USAF strategic bombers buried most of Iran's long-range missiles in their underground bases. Iran has now dug up most of these missiles and launchers. They are more capable of sustained fire than they were in March/April.
https://bsky.app/profile/ariehkovler.com/post/3mnr3ftotc22y
I hesitate to say it but the best way to achieve your twin aims would be to vote Reform, because if Burnham loses I still think Starmer is toast... it's just that Rayner will be taking over.
So this summer it would be nice to enjoy the fruits of all the hard work from last year and the first few months of this. Though it has to be said everything I've planted is romping away. So the plants are happy anyway.
PS Can't say I much care for Burnham but really do not want Reform to win. Ghastly mob. I can understand why people feel fed up with the main parties. The former mayor of Barrow, a Tory, recently won a local by-election in a formerly strong Tory ward as a Reform candidate. She was well known but it has I understand put the hereby jeebies up the Tories and Labour.
But Reform are absolutely not the answer.
https://kellnerp.substack.com/p/makerfield-update-burnhams-chances?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2975369&post_id=201032580&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1mnpci&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
It's just a placeholder until there's something meaningful to say.
He inspires GOTV - for his opponents.
Ukrainian drones have once again hit the oil depot at Novorossiysk, Krasnodar.
#explodey
This is what I posted on 5 June based on a visit 8 days ago:
"I spent half a day doorknocking in Makerfield last Sunday, in two different locations. There were some favourable responses for Burnham who had good name recognition and was personally known to a couple of people I met, but there were quite a few Reform and hostile against responses too. We did quite a bit of driving across about 5 miles of the constituency and in that time and during doorknocking I spotted about 20 homes with Reform stakes/posters compared with about 10 for Labour and 1 Restore, although I don't think you can take too much heed of the relative numbers for Reform v Labour (based on an appreciation that if willingness to display a poster was a reliable indicator of relative support, the Conservatives wouldn't have won a general election in my lifetime.) What was striking was just how many people were not aware of the national implications if Burnham won and the Labour campaign approach was not to mention that. That approach might change a bit now that Burnham has made clear his intentions. A couple of Reform supporters appeared to genuinely equivocate once I went off script and pointed out that if Burnham wins Starmer would probably be out of the door in months.
The overall impression was that it certainly wasn't in the bag for Burnham so I would counsel against going all in on Burnham based on the latest Survation polling. With a lot still in play I don't find odds of 2/9 on attractive although Burnham should still be favourite."
With the coming crowning of Burnham we are about to see another huge shift in the political sands.
This was always the Burnham pitch. There is no Labour candidate in this by-election. Just Burnham.
All the recent rain (another 14mm in the past two hours here in Dorset) has had meant that Mrs P. hasn't had to water our new trees for the past two weeks. We put 17 quite large trees into our new garden last autumn and all appear have survived the winter well. (We probably should have put in whips but at our age we don't really want to wait 20 years for them to mature.)
From the New Statesman today on the Survation polling (paywall):
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2026/06/could-misogyny-decide-makerfield
Andy Burnham’s lead among Makerfield’s women is emphatic, while among men he’s neck and neck with Reform’s Robert Kenyon. But here’s the kicker: voter uncertainty is lower among women than it is among men in the poll. That’s not normal. Typically women tend to be more uncertain about their preferences in opinion polls. In voting intention surveys the world over women are more likely to answer “don’t know”. So what could be behind it?
For Reform candidate Robert Kenyon’s comments on abortion to feature so highly in a by-election campaign is unusual in mainland Britain. “Abortion is the cowardly act of murdering a defenceless baby” reads one X post. And “don’t dole out the ‘what if someone is raped by their brother’ argument” reads another, in response to someone else. These aren’t sentiments often wheeled out by a candidate at election time. It’s a fringe view, even among voters on the right. Similarly, Kenyon’s comments about Carol Vorderman have been much publicised, with Kenyon refusing to apologise for them in an appearance on Question Time on Thursday (5 June).
What actual good would electing Kenyon actually do now? Its a by-election so they get a Free Hit. The objective? Get rid of Starmer and change direction. Burnham will do both. And if he fails, then oust him in favour of a Reform government in 2029.
(Just thought - shouldn't be the New Statesperson these days? ;-) )
I suppose the un-answered question is "what's in it for the constituents of any PM?" Chap (or chap-ess) surely has very little time for the constituency matters which take up most of a back-bench MP's time, and although I realise 'there's someone in the office to deal with those' is it quite the same?
IF Burnham wins, it's likely Starmer will soon be gone and there'll be a new PM in town and life may get tougher for Badenoch in the Commons, OTOH, Reform will be badly dented and that will increase the chances of the Conservatives moving back into a clear second and re-establishing themselves as the alternative "Right wing" option to Labour.
However, let's say Reform wins - Starmer stays, weakened and humiliated BUT Reform will be buoyant and look more like a Government in waiting with the Conservatives becoming less and less relevant.
Interesting times?
The insurgent parties need to professionalise its candidate selection and vetting ASAP
Or that prospect could be just frittered away in a meaningless protest vote that will mean more of the same from Starmer.
No-one is being bussed in, are you not aware of election expense rules? What I saw was massive enthusiasm for Burnham causing people to travel miles under their own steam. An overflowing car park at the campaign centre spilling over into local streets.
Any more questions?
I was politically active when the SDP came into being - two thirds of the new SDP members had never been in any political party at all. Inevitably, it was left to the ex-Labour and ex-Conservative members to show them what to do and how it worked. The came the Alliance and the Liberals worked with the SDP.
This was all before the days of social media of course.
It's also quite possible that Burnham would do a better job here (making sure there's a good staff in place so it doesn't cause political blowups, plus the PM's constituency office sending a "what's going on here?" query probably gets more attention than a random MP doing it) compared to a Reform MP who might not have a party with a depth of experience supporting them or the connections to do this bit of the job well.
e.g.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/reforms-robert-kenyon-says-i-34069336
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/makerfield-reform-candidate-robert-kenyon-34013441
Whereas Reform and Greens prefer self-righteous protest and posturing.
My personal position is that he'll be shit as a PM and there will be crisis after crisis on the economic front. Being a messiah doesn't change the economics of being in hawk to the banks at high interest rates.
I'm 60.40 years ago people routinely said things about women (and black people) that are now considered out of order. Indeed, I may have said some of them. Now I certainly wouldn't. However, how many people have changed their views?
How anyone can think this man is a suitable leader, let alone president, is utterly beyond me.
Trump crashes out and cuts his interview with Welker short as she presses him on his lack of evidence for claiming elections are rigged
"You're either crooked or you're stupid. Let's call it quits. Because I've had enough. Thank you darling," he tells her."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2063633879613805030
Party buses people in, pays for food (and lodging?). Election expense.
The same number of people campaign at their own expense. Not an election expense.
However, exactly the same money has been spent, just in the second case it is in penny packets and provided in kind.
Why does one count against the constituency election expenses, and the other doesn't? The measure is how much is being spent in the constituency, not as far as I know the size of donation.
Party buses people in, pays for food (and lodging?). Election expense.
The same number of people campaign at their own expense. Not an election expense.
However, exactly the same money has been spent, just in the second case it is in penny packets and provided in kind.
Why does one count against the constituency election expenses, and the other doesn't? The measure is how much is being spent in the constituency, not as far as I know the size of donation.
This is why all parties appeal for volunteers to turn up to x location. Because its free.
"hello its bloke calling from" company with three letters I have literally never heard of
"sorry, from who?"
He repeats. "You made an enquiry about" and then some incomprehensible garble description of some business service
"No, I didn't" and hung up
This is happening quite a lot. Random cold calls from companies whose script now makes out that we called them and made an enquiry.
Nope. Sod off.
If Burnham wins, a leadership contest is inevitable and there is no guarantee that Burnham wins that.
If Reform win, Rayner and Streeting may not bother challenging.
Unequivocally this conservative wants Burnham to win for two main reasons:
He will almost certainly end Starmer's tenure { listening to Starmer address a tech conference this am he was more Ai than Ai, robotic and uninspiring} and at the same time stop Farage in his tracks
Yesterday, Starmer entered his comfort zone with Zelensky, Macron and Merz at no 10 in yet another pointless meeting and almost at the same time Iran and Israel recommenced throwing missiles at one another
On Burnham, I have often said I like him and he will bring to labour a charisma but also a laser focus on domestic issues and I doubt he has a clue on the international stage but if he appoints a good foreign secretary { not Starmer or Cooper} let them take the strain much like Cameron did
The Andy v Kemi show will be very interesting and I notice even Gauke is praising Kemi this morning. I do expect their interaction to be more collegiate which would be very welcome
Of course, we cannot know the future but as far as I am concerned the far right (Farage) and far left (Polanski) need to be beaten and a move to more centre policies is desirable, though not endless talk about the EU
That is incredible, compared to constantly having out of touch London lawyers etc being the Prime Minister.
Is it perfect? No of course not, nothing is, but having the Prime Minister answer directly to you is surely good for any constituency.
Tricky to fix.
Comfort zone?
Wash your mouth out with soap and water. It would be nice to ignore Ukraine, but it would be utterly wrong, and not in the UK's interest.
It's one thing to oppose Starmer as PM, but you're better than this
1. String them along for a bit
2. Put headphones / ear defenders on
3. Test smoke alarm