politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another phone pollster, ComRes, has UKIP declining. CON lea

In line with ICM and also the big two going up as with other pollsters

In your terms that's almost a positive headline for the Tories!

The battle for the PB Gold Standard continues.

RobD said:

Diamondium standard.

Rob, you're missing TNS from 16 Feb.

MikeL said:

RobD said:

Diamondium standard.

Rob, you're missing TNS from 16 Feb.

Thanks... keep missing the buggers. Of course, nothing to do with the fact it has a 7pt Lab lead......

But we've heard on here many times that Lab 2010 was rock bottom for the reds?

James Chapman (Mail)‏@jameschappers·45 secs45 seconds ago
30% of those who voted Lab under Brown in 2010 say they would like to do so again but Miliband is putting them off @DailyMailUK/@ComResPolls

MikeL said:

RobD said:

Diamondium standard.

Rob, you're missing TNS from 16 Feb.

For everyone else, the elbow competitor.....

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

UKIP trending down. Probably not fast enough....

Your move, Sunil

Tories Most votes, most seats, Dave out the job I reckon if this is the score.

TGOHF said:

@jameschappers: 30% of those who voted Lab under Brown in 2010 say they would like to do so again but Miliband is putting them off @DailyMailUK/@ComResPolls

Jesus, just how crap is Ed?

ComRes with their leading questions again?

"The current government are a bunch of total muppets responsible for dreadful things, is it time for a change of government".

"Ed Miliband is a dangerous left wing Marxist with no idea what he is doing, would he make a bad PM?"

The thing about the conflicting responses that Mike highlights is that you would think that when the voters want a change, but they aren't convinced by the leader of the opposition it then creates the perfect opportunity for a different party - such as UKIP - to make an impression.

TheScreamingEagles said:

ComRes for @DailyMailUK: majority (55%) think that if SNP joins coalition govt they shouldn't be allowed to decide on non-Scots laws

Have English MPs been deciding on non-English laws recently ?

What you wont be hearing about on the BBC tomorrow...

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/569983830947463170

Purseybear said:

Pulpstar said:

Tories Most votes, most seats, Dave out the job I reckon if this is the score.

Not meaning to be funny but how d'you come up with that off back of a tory lead & over 10 wks campaigning to bung in the mixer? Suppose the answer is you said 'if' but do you reckon these polls will stagnate from here on in?

"If this is the score"

Polls could move any which way from here I reckon. Tonight's revelations re: Straw and Rifkind could boost UKIP and help SNP keep it's score.

Pulpstar said:

Tories Most votes, most seats, Dave out the job I reckon if this is the score.

Surely, the ideal result?

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ComRes for @DailyMailUK: majority (55%) think that if SNP joins coalition govt they shouldn't be allowed to decide on non-Scots laws

Have English MPs been deciding on non-English laws recently ?

They're not allowed to, only the Scots get to do that.

Yougov out of the Gold Standard running. Labour/Tory tie

How can there be +/- changes if this is a new poll for the Mail?

GIN1138 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The "time for change" is a really bad question, because most people know that the current government is Tory + Lib Dem, so I would imagine to that question hard core Labour, Tory and Lib Dem supporters would all say "time for a change".

I'd be reasonably happy to keep the ConDem government actually...

I'm also not sure how much better a Tory government would be either. On a scale of 1-10 I might support it about 4.5, but I can't see me preferring any other government.

JohnLilburne said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ComRes for @DailyMailUK: majority (55%) think that if SNP joins coalition govt they shouldn't be allowed to decide on non-Scots laws

Have English MPs been deciding on non-English laws recently ?

They're not allowed to, only the Scots get to do that.

You don't wield power without controlling the budget. Currently English MPs decide how much of Scotland's own money Scotland gets back. Hence, no such thing as English or Scottish only matters in very nearly every instance.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

How can there be +/- changes if this is a new poll for the Mail?

Changes are from the last ComRes phone poll for the Indy.

Dair said:

JohnLilburne said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ComRes for @DailyMailUK: majority (55%) think that if SNP joins coalition govt they shouldn't be allowed to decide on non-Scots laws

Have English MPs been deciding on non-English laws recently ?

They're not allowed to, only the Scots get to do that.

You don't wield power without controlling the budget. Currently English MPs decide how much of Scotland's own money Scotland gets back. Hence, no such thing as English or Scottish only matters in very nearly every instance.

Could be my cash plonked down broadly speaking on the SNP but indeed the UK budget is a UK matter ! And that means England and Scots MPs.

#BetterTogether

The financial deterioration of the FT sector continues to worsen, with stress concentrated in the acute sector, where 60 trusts – 73 per cent of all acute FTs – are now in deficit.

This compares to zero in 2010 in deficit and 21 trusts in 2013

FrancisUrquhart said:

What you wont be hearing about on the BBC tomorrow...

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/569983830947463170

He says quoting a tweet from the BBC's Nick Sutton.

RobD said:

MikeL said:

RobD said:

Diamondium standard.

Rob, you're missing TNS from 16 Feb.

For everyone else, the elbow competitor.....

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

UKIP trending down. Probably not fast enough....

Your move, Sunil

UKIP made a slight recovery last week in ELBOW, denier!

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/569480545782145026

Grandiose said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What you wont be hearing about on the BBC tomorrow...

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/569983830947463170

He says quoting a tweet from the BBC's Nick Sutton.

Yes of course I know that...because the guy retweets all front pages...very different from actually being reported on by the BBC. Watch it never see the light of day on BBC News tomorrow. But when they win some media award for the scoop, they will all be backslapping.

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%

The day's polling then works out at Con 32.8%, Lab 33.1%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%. UKPR should move to 33/33.

Anthony won't update the average until Thursday or Friday though, so the next 2-3 YG's will be critical...

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

Purseybear said:

Pulpstar said:

Purseybear said:

Pulpstar said:

Tories Most votes, most seats, Dave out the job I reckon if this is the score.

Not meaning to be funny but how d'you come up with that off back of a tory lead & over 10 wks campaigning to bung in the mixer? Suppose the answer is you said 'if' but do you reckon these polls will stagnate from here on in?

"If this is the score"

Polls could move any which way from here I reckon. Tonight's revelations re: Straw and Rifkind could boost UKIP and help SNP keep it's score.

I know. Just made me curious when tories took a poll lead off ComRes that you'd talk of Dave being out of a job that's all.

YG any sec. From punting angle am worried they're so static at moment. Doesn't seem right.

Obviously this is a decent poll for Conservative, just pointing out at the moment it probably leads to a Labour-SNP deal with the Conservatives marginally ahead on seats of Labour.

I just don't see why SNP would sign up to a deal with Labour

Far better for them to do it on an issue-by-issue basis. Maximum potential for causing disruption, maximum ability to campaign against the government in 2016.

Why wouldn't they ?

Anyway s&c or issue by issue doesn't really matter to yours truly...

TGOHF said:

Dair said:

JohnLilburne said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ComRes for @DailyMailUK: majority (55%) think that if SNP joins coalition govt they shouldn't be allowed to decide on non-Scots laws

Have English MPs been deciding on non-English laws recently ?

They're not allowed to, only the Scots get to do that.

You don't wield power without controlling the budget. Currently English MPs decide how much of Scotland's own money Scotland gets back. Hence, no such thing as English or Scottish only matters in very nearly every instance.

A Scottish MP made the budgets between 1997-2007 and these were voted upon by Scottish MPs.

Hardly to the benefit of Scotland with a net loss of around £35bn** over that ten year period, removed from Scotland and spent on London.

**topline GERS the reality was likely to have been much, much higher.

philiph said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%

So The Scores On The Board are:

Populus - Tie

The Good Lord - Lab Lead

ComRes - Con Lead

YouGov - Tie

#megpollingmonday

And the winner is????

Those that will benefit from a second GE in a year? The losers are all those that pump money into political parties as they fund a second campaign.

According to Monitor “a large majority” of financially challenged acute trusts are medium or small in size, which is says raises “the question about their long term financial sustainability”

As well as struggling financially, FTs have now failed to meet national waiting time targets for accident and emergency, routine and cancer care for three successive quarters in the 2014-15 financial year.

The sector failed to achieve the A&E waiting time target of seeing 95 per cent of patients within four hours for the 2014 calendar year.

For the first time, ambulance FTs breached the three response time targets relating to life threatening “category A” calls.

Patients waiting on a trolley for more than four hours in A&E increased by 134 per cent to 42,600 due to reduced bed availability between October and December.


NHS clearly not a GE 2015 issue.

Dair said:

TGOHF said:

Dair said:

JohnLilburne said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ComRes for @DailyMailUK: majority (55%) think that if SNP joins coalition govt they shouldn't be allowed to decide on non-Scots laws

Have English MPs been deciding on non-English laws recently ?

They're not allowed to, only the Scots get to do that.

You don't wield power without controlling the budget. Currently English MPs decide how much of Scotland's own money Scotland gets back. Hence, no such thing as English or Scottish only matters in very nearly every instance.

A Scottish MP made the budgets between 1997-2007 and these were voted upon by Scottish MPs.

Hardly to the benefit of Scotland with a net loss of around £35bn** over that ten year period, removed from Scotland and spent on London.

**topline GERS the reality was likely to have been much, much higher.

Ah yes.

Gordon Brown. What a shit.

The combined waiting list for elective care stood at 1.64 million at the end of the quarter – 2.5 per cent higher than the year before.

Monitor said the pressure on trusts had been increased by the need to make cost savings and the use of expensive agency staff.

The use of agency workers contributed to providers spending £419m more on staff than planned in the nine months through to December, but the £810m in cost savings made by the FT sector was £210m less than planned.

As forecast the Acute Sector is fooked!!

Dair said:

TGOHF said:

Dair said:

JohnLilburne said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ComRes for @DailyMailUK: majority (55%) think that if SNP joins coalition govt they shouldn't be allowed to decide on non-Scots laws

Have English MPs been deciding on non-English laws recently ?

They're not allowed to, only the Scots get to do that.

You don't wield power without controlling the budget. Currently English MPs decide how much of Scotland's own money Scotland gets back. Hence, no such thing as English or Scottish only matters in very nearly every instance.

A Scottish MP made the budgets between 1997-2007 and these were voted upon by Scottish MPs.

Hardly to the benefit of Scotland with a net loss of around £35bn** over that ten year period, removed from Scotland and spent on London.

**topline GERS the reality was likely to have been much, much higher.

I am shocked at how selfish and introspective Scotland has become.

Within the Union there is no such thing as Scotlands money.

It is one of the things about a Union you pool resources for the benefit of all. You support the weakest, not stamp your grubby feet shouting 'it's our money. Give it back you big bully!'

For a nation that claims to be altruistic it is very sad to see.

JohnLilburne said:

Dair said:

JohnLilburne said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ComRes for @DailyMailUK: majority (55%) think that if SNP joins coalition govt they shouldn't be allowed to decide on non-Scots laws

Have English MPs been deciding on non-English laws recently ?

They're not allowed to, only the Scots get to do that.

You don't wield power without controlling the budget. Currently English MPs decide how much of Scotland's own money Scotland gets back. Hence, no such thing as English or Scottish only matters in very nearly every instance.

I'm happy to delegate full fiscal autonomy to the Scots. In any case it doesn't quite work how you say, doesn't Barnett say, if we spend some money, you get a proportion of it? So worth the Scots ramping up UK spending just for their bit of it. Any party promising to end Barnett will get me thinking about voting for them.

And some things are revenue neutral. If the English want to, say, keep the drink driving limit at 80mg and a Labour government without a minority propped up by some Scottish separatists wants to reduce it to 50mg, I would hope the SNP would stick to its current view of not expressing an opinion.

The SNP have no intention on voting on the England and Wales drink driving limit. They do intend to vote on every matter with a financial implication for Scotland until such time as FFA is granted.

The best way for someone in England to vote for this is to cast their X in the Green Party of E&W's box.

Off Topic...Just looking at the Oscar noms / winners, most of the films up for awards did absolutely terribly at the US Box Office e.g. The Theory of Everything has only done $33m in business in the US, Whiplash just $10m.

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ComRes for @DailyMailUK: majority (55%) think that if SNP joins coalition govt they shouldn't be allowed to decide on non-Scots laws

SNP MPs are no more (or less) qualified to vote on English only matters than any other parties Scottish MP's. Indeed the SNP MPs are more likely to abstain than other parties.

An SNP coalition would be electoral suicide for Labour both sides of the border.

They don't have to join a coalition - the misunderstanding on this is as bad as debt/deficit confusion.

Supply and Confidence is not much better for either SLAB or EWLAB. Why switch back if you are former SLAB? And why let the celtic (non-Lab) tail wag the English dog?

Better a Lab minority, and agree an EVFEL deal with the Tories.

The question about "time for a change of goverment" does show again how there's so little scope for the Tories to put on more votes than they currently have. People are FAR from certain that the change they want is a change to Labour/Miliband, but they definitely want change of some kind.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

How can there be +/- changes if this is a new poll for the Mail?

Changes are from the last ComRes phone poll for the Indy.

So we are losing the regular Indy phone poll?

The Mail has taken it over which is a good thing. Phone polling is very expensive.

philiph said:

Dair said:

TGOHF said:

Dair said:

JohnLilburne said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ComRes for @DailyMailUK: majority (55%) think that if SNP joins coalition govt they shouldn't be allowed to decide on non-Scots laws

Have English MPs been deciding on non-English laws recently ?

They're not allowed to, only the Scots get to do that.

You don't wield power without controlling the budget. Currently English MPs decide how much of Scotland's own money Scotland gets back. Hence, no such thing as English or Scottish only matters in very nearly every instance.

A Scottish MP made the budgets between 1997-2007 and these were voted upon by Scottish MPs.

Hardly to the benefit of Scotland with a net loss of around £35bn** over that ten year period, removed from Scotland and spent on London.

**topline GERS the reality was likely to have been much, much higher.

I am shocked at how selfish and introspective Scotland has become.

Within the Union there is no such thing as Scotlands money.

It is one of the things about a Union you pool resources for the benefit of all. You support the weakest, not stamp your grubby feet shouting 'it's our money. Give it back you big bully!'

For a nation that claims to be altruistic it is very sad to see.

Not wanting to subsidise England is not being selfish. It is merely seeking fairness. If England hadn't spent Scotland's money on such ridiculous largesse for London (continuing with another £15bn choo choo currently featured on BBC2) then Scotland would not be ready to dump the Union.

That doesn't even consider the utter disbelief Scotland has that there is no recognition from England at just how large the subsidy they have received is, not only is it unrecognised but the general opinion in England appears to be that it is subsidising Scotland!

Utterly ridiculous.

If it had been the Tories turn to get the big poll lead with His Lordship's Bouncy Castle of Polling, tonight we'd be getting really excited and saying "is THIS the moment the Tories finally make a move?" So has his Lordship masked a true Tory lead in the other polls?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Actually that ComRes poll could be misinterpreted.

I'm someone who would like a change of government.

From a coalition to a Tory majority government.

But 90% of Tory voters say they want to "stay the course". It's the vast majority of voters for other parties who overwhelmingly want a change (including 80% of UKIP voters; there's actually a lot more Lib Dem voters who are willing to "stay the course" than Kippers, so that's really where the Tories should be looking to gain extra votes).

MarqueeMark said:

If it had been the Tories turn to get the big poll lead with His Lordship's Bouncy Castle of Polling, tonight we'd be getting really excited and saying "is THIS the moment the Tories finally make a move?" So has his Lordship masked a true Tory lead in the other polls?

Whatever The Good Lord show's just remember:

As the Good Lord Giveth, the Good Taketh.

Amen.

FrancisUrquhart said:

philiph said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%

So The Scores On The Board are:

Populus - Tie

The Good Lord - Lab Lead

ComRes - Con Lead

YouGov - Tie

#megpollingmonday

And the winner is????

Those that will benefit from a second GE in a year? The losers are all those that pump money into political parties as they fund a second campaign.

There will be no 2nd GE this year if no party wins a majority. Fixed Term Parliament Act.

Dair said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Off Topic...Just looking at the Oscar noms / winners, most of the films up for awards did absolutely terribly at the US Box Office e.g. The Theory of Everything has only done $33m in business in the US, Whiplash just $10m.

The treatment of The Lego Movie (no nom for Animated Picture, lost out on best song) was an utter disgrace.

They didn't want to mess up their whiteys only oscars by having to give an award to some yellow people.

Scott_P said:

MikeSmithson said:

There will be no 2nd GE this year if no party wins a majority. Fixed Term Parliament Act.

That's a cast iron guarantee, just like "2010 Lib Dems are Labour's impregnable firewall"...

Just what DID happen to the 2010 Lib's?